People hold on to the idea that Serum Visions is good because that's all we've had for many years (and that's all some of us have EVER had). It's been the gold standard, the bar, the definition of cantrip against all other cantrips were judged. This elevated status blinded a lot of us to how mediocre (or downright poor) it is in a lot of situations. Preordain is just a slightly better Serum Visions. Which means it's slightly better than a mediocre-to-bad cantrip.
*I'm not sure why no one has addressed this, but Preordain and Ponder were legal when Rite of Flame, Seething Song, Gitaxian Probe, Splinter Twin, and Blazing Shoal were all not banned. They helped find those cards. Each one never got to see play without the other, at least in Modern. Does anyone have a reply to this? Or is it Preordain and Ponder that were broken all along? Maybe those other 5 cards should be unbanned?
Does anyone that was around and playing during these times have an answer for this?
It was before my time as well, but I have brought this point up a number of times. Usually to deflecting answers or chirping crickets.
Yeah but URW did well. UW hasn't been great until Dominaria
Jeskai did sort of OK (likely the result of THOUSANDS of people jamming various builds looking for something to stick, especially with Jace unbanned). But once Teferi was printed, people realized that Bolts and Helixes aren't worth the red splash when you can just Path/Terminus people and win with PW ultimates. The deck never saw anything other than sporadic "cute" success until Teferi and the full move to UW with 4 Field, 4 Terminus, 4 Opt.
You're talking to someone who has played just about every UR core deck (other than Storm) for the past 3 years with intimate experience and knowledge of many of them. I am very familiar with the strengths (and lack of strengths) of various archetypes and builds.
Blue Moon still exists as an archtype though. I think the major part about Twin was the eot exarch thing, which blue moon doesnt really need/have now since its kind of a bad strategy unless you are just going to untap and win the game on the spot
Blue Moon is a heaping pile of trash that wavers between half a dozen different configurations and win cons because ALL of them are wheezingly mediocre.
The reason the deck is bad is nobody fears it, nobody respects it, and it simply does not have the tools to deal with the things other decks are capable of doing in Modern.
What made Twin better is that fear of the combo made people play more cautiously. Because UR has fairly terrible tools for dealing with a LOT of things if people simply vomit their hands and present pressure (kind of like what the vast majority of Modern does), it requires an explosive and/or unfair win condition to make up for its terrible control elements.
There's a reason why UW is doing well and UR hasn't been relevant in 3 years.
There are 150894 ways to stop KCI. The issue is only the time.
When the deck isn't losing to itself, if you're not resolving Stony Silence or killing on or before turn 3, you're going to have a hard time actually dealing with its recursion engine.
Well, I don't see Wizards unbanning anything blue or white for a while. Let's talk GSZ?
I don't think this precludes SFM because she doesn't slot into Miracles. On the contrary, it probably makes her an even better unban because you have to build a different deck with her, more of a tap-out tempo or midrange shell, which would undoubtedly cannibalize meta share from UW Miracles and Jeskai Control.
Wizards R&D has shown that they are both not smart enough to recognize this, nor care enough to do anything about it. They look at data sheets of shared cards, GP Top 8s, and MTGO analysis numbers. Nobody who makes these decisions understand the inner workings of a deck, how it functions, or how it interacts with other decks.
As for "design space", they apparently don't have a problem with spells despite Snapcaster Mage, for which almost the same reasoning may apply.
Outside of black-based removal, they have printed mostly awful and overcosted spells for years. The ones that do sneak through are usually an accident.
I think we're at a confident "No changes" for the upcoming B&R and have a visibly diverse metagame with tons of viable options. We'll see how the Modern-focused cards in Guilds changes the scene and check back in for B&R changes in early 2019.
Let's be honest here, it's the same scenario I've said for at least the past year: nothing is going to be unbanned unless A) Wizards wants to shake up the format or B) Wizards has supplemental product to sell. But most importantly, it has to have maximum public image improvement.
There is no other reason they do anything, and their actions in the last 3 years showcase this.
Regardless of how tame or safe any card is, nothing is going to come off unless Wizards can benefit from it either financially or from a PR standpoint. It has absolutely nothing to do with actual format health or "safeness" of a card.
Your quoted post is also yet another example of the frustrating Twin defender double standard. Earlier today you were asking me to consider how T8 tiebreakers changed the 2015 picture for Twin. Now you're telling me that Blue Moon is worthless when it has two T8 tiebreaker appearances this year which you don't seem to count or consider.
Then you completely missed the point of that comment (and the original post with the data crunch). It has nothing to do with what tie breakers have or have not done since then. It has everything to do with a company making the biggest and most controversial ban decision in the history of the format on the backs of what were essentially four coin flips.
What's done is done. I'm just trying to show why it might be so infuriating and insulting to the thousands of people that played the deck to make such a huge decision from such a small and easily manipulated data set. (This is of course in addition to the multitude of other failures that never realized as a result of the ban).
Re: Twin
I will never bring up Twin and I haven't in years. But when Twin defenders try to justify the unban with any other argument other than "Twin will increase format diversity: here's why-", I will always push back.
Who is making this argument? What quotes do you have to support that people are making this argument? At most, people are saying that it would add one more good deck among other good decks, likely at the cost of other decks that are currently not good (like Blue Moon and other low-tier jank). And that current diversity is wholly independent to the banning of Twin, since it took 3 years and dozens of new cards to achieve. It sounds more like you are making projections onto others and misrepresenting their arguments.
So, as a biased 'Twin Defender' I have one simple ask to those who are not 'Twin Defenders'.
If you dont want to discuss Twin.
Dont talk about it.
Dont mention it.
Dont imply that it needed to go.
Dont imply the format is better for it being gone.
Dont imply that the ban accomplished its goals.
Dont imply its too good for Modern.
If that happens, you wont be subject to the horror of a few loyal defenders of the deck pointing out why your arguments are wrong, and we wont have to read wildly incorrect statements like 'Kiki is nearly as good'.
This is probably the best advice on the topic since the equally-ridiculous discussion ban on it was lifted.
Similarly, we know there are non-Twin blue decks that are currently viable. Again, we don't know why that is specifically and we don't know how the Twin ban did or did not contributed to this. I also made no attempt to explain why. I am simply saying they are viable.
We know that every "blue" deck that exists as it does today, does so at the behest of multiple newly printed cards and the release of Jace. Of all those things, Jace is the only questionable action that may not have taken place. But judging by how unhelpful and bland Jace is without Teferi, we can be fairly certain that doomsaying stuff on the banned list is hyperbolic nonsense and a result of people inflating the past to ludicrously villainous boogyman status (just as people have done with Twin). Either way, the removal of Twin played no role in making these decks better. New cards 2+ years later did.
But please feel free to respond with a bunch of capital words again.
Looking at your signature, just imagine if Slippery Bogle and Simian Spirit Guide were banned because they were supplanting all these similar decks that don't exist (and still didn't exist after the ban). Your decks technically still exist, but are more or less unplayable trash with no meaningful notoriety for 2+ years. Then some other random cards get printed to build up other completely different decks that use less than 10% crossover cards, and everyone tells you that you should like that and shut up about losing your old deck because it's not coming back.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
It was before my time as well, but I have brought this point up a number of times. Usually to deflecting answers or chirping crickets.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Jeskai did sort of OK (likely the result of THOUSANDS of people jamming various builds looking for something to stick, especially with Jace unbanned). But once Teferi was printed, people realized that Bolts and Helixes aren't worth the red splash when you can just Path/Terminus people and win with PW ultimates. The deck never saw anything other than sporadic "cute" success until Teferi and the full move to UW with 4 Field, 4 Terminus, 4 Opt.
You're talking to someone who has played just about every UR core deck (other than Storm) for the past 3 years with intimate experience and knowledge of many of them. I am very familiar with the strengths (and lack of strengths) of various archetypes and builds.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Blue Moon is a heaping pile of trash that wavers between half a dozen different configurations and win cons because ALL of them are wheezingly mediocre.
The reason the deck is bad is nobody fears it, nobody respects it, and it simply does not have the tools to deal with the things other decks are capable of doing in Modern.
What made Twin better is that fear of the combo made people play more cautiously. Because UR has fairly terrible tools for dealing with a LOT of things if people simply vomit their hands and present pressure (kind of like what the vast majority of Modern does), it requires an explosive and/or unfair win condition to make up for its terrible control elements.
There's a reason why UW is doing well and UR hasn't been relevant in 3 years.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
I guess collectively, this is better than Twin discussion?
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
When you show "No changes" month after month, it's just free hype and a 'just in case.'
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
When the deck isn't losing to itself, if you're not resolving Stony Silence or killing on or before turn 3, you're going to have a hard time actually dealing with its recursion engine.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Wizards R&D has shown that they are both not smart enough to recognize this, nor care enough to do anything about it. They look at data sheets of shared cards, GP Top 8s, and MTGO analysis numbers. Nobody who makes these decisions understand the inner workings of a deck, how it functions, or how it interacts with other decks.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Outside of black-based removal, they have printed mostly awful and overcosted spells for years. The ones that do sneak through are usually an accident.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Let's be honest here, it's the same scenario I've said for at least the past year: nothing is going to be unbanned unless A) Wizards wants to shake up the format or B) Wizards has supplemental product to sell. But most importantly, it has to have maximum public image improvement.
There is no other reason they do anything, and their actions in the last 3 years showcase this.
Regardless of how tame or safe any card is, nothing is going to come off unless Wizards can benefit from it either financially or from a PR standpoint. It has absolutely nothing to do with actual format health or "safeness" of a card.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Then you completely missed the point of that comment (and the original post with the data crunch). It has nothing to do with what tie breakers have or have not done since then. It has everything to do with a company making the biggest and most controversial ban decision in the history of the format on the backs of what were essentially four coin flips.
What's done is done. I'm just trying to show why it might be so infuriating and insulting to the thousands of people that played the deck to make such a huge decision from such a small and easily manipulated data set. (This is of course in addition to the multitude of other failures that never realized as a result of the ban).
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Who is making this argument? What quotes do you have to support that people are making this argument? At most, people are saying that it would add one more good deck among other good decks, likely at the cost of other decks that are currently not good (like Blue Moon and other low-tier jank). And that current diversity is wholly independent to the banning of Twin, since it took 3 years and dozens of new cards to achieve. It sounds more like you are making projections onto others and misrepresenting their arguments.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
This is probably the best advice on the topic since the equally-ridiculous discussion ban on it was lifted.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
We know that every "blue" deck that exists as it does today, does so at the behest of multiple newly printed cards and the release of Jace. Of all those things, Jace is the only questionable action that may not have taken place. But judging by how unhelpful and bland Jace is without Teferi, we can be fairly certain that doomsaying stuff on the banned list is hyperbolic nonsense and a result of people inflating the past to ludicrously villainous boogyman status (just as people have done with Twin). Either way, the removal of Twin played no role in making these decks better. New cards 2+ years later did.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Looking at your signature, just imagine if Slippery Bogle and Simian Spirit Guide were banned because they were supplanting all these similar decks that don't exist (and still didn't exist after the ban). Your decks technically still exist, but are more or less unplayable trash with no meaningful notoriety for 2+ years. Then some other random cards get printed to build up other completely different decks that use less than 10% crossover cards, and everyone tells you that you should like that and shut up about losing your old deck because it's not coming back.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate