James Mishler, Scry and WotC alum, thinks that RPGs and "any game with 'collectable' in its name" are on their way out do to waning interest (and inteligence) of the newer generation of potential gamers. He says that, especially with the economy problems, people will stop buying games fast enough to keep the publishers out of the red.
Mishler fears that Paizo's (the people that used to make Dungeon and Dragon magazines and that now make Pathfinder) decision to sell its new core book at 1/5 of the value of the hardcopy will destroy the pdf market too.
He also argued that D&D's success was based mostly on two bouts of dumb luck (in pre-1ed and with 3ed).
It's pretty interesting (if grim) read.
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Listen to my M:tG flavor Podcast: Story Circle! (Newest episode is all about Innistrad previews.)
I laughed at the 10 dollar 34 page supplement. That's 20 euros here, minimum, and that is around 30 dollars. That's triple the price he was suggesting.
Also, WoW doesn't have dark elves.
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The Sage is occupied with the unspoken
and acts without effort.
Teaching without verbosity,
producing without possessing,
creating without regard to result,
claiming nothing,
the Sage has nothing to lose.
Theres only so much that you can do with games like WoW, even with continuing expansion packs. Games like DnD which allow for people to build their own campaigns etc. will always be very popular imo.
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Skizzik_NZ, Apprentice of Turmoil from The Izzet and Super Otaku Friend!
The worst thing about tabletops these days, is that they are trying to conform to the setup of certain popular MMOs and their limitations. In order for tabletop gaming to flourish, it needs to play up on it's own strength: Namely, the limitless potential of it's players imagination.
I think print versions of tabletop games are on their way out but pdf versions of the books will still be around and people will still create new material. I happen to have most of the 3E library and plan to use it indefinitely. 4E is garbage and just seems like a money grab. >.<
Well, the obvious problem with CCG's and miniatures games like WH40K (and that especially) is that they are large financial commitments. I should think that in this current economic situation most people would rather invest their discretionary income on more... necessary things. Like rent.
Selling RPG rulebooks as pdf's is a good idea though. One eight-pound laptop with ten pdf's versus thirty pounds of rulebooks, plus associated binders and notebooks? Yeah.
Of course, they still have to keep the quality up. D&D 4E's main strength, IMO, is Wizards' going in and applying a MtG-like standardization to the terminology and rules and such, but the main weakness was, of course, the WoW-like aesthetic. It was a nice try though.
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Do I Contradict Myself? Very Well Then I Contradict Myself.
Tabletop will never die, games like WoW just can't do what a TTRPG can - offer that limitless reach that comes from pure imagination. Certain systems will die out, and have died out (in droves in fact), but the concept and the largest games (like D&D) will continue (despite the fact that I think 4th Ed D&D sucks ass). And even if some companies die off and fewer games emerge, really creative people will still come up with ideas. My own group developed a Final Fantasy RPG based (loosely anymore) on the D20 system (you can barely tell what it was based off of originally anymore, but the classes, levels, essential progression up to 20th level, Prestige Class themes, and basic mechanics are preserved, with an alternate skill system that allows for better high-level play), and we don't need any supplements, even if D&D tanked. TTRPGs may not be as popular in the future for whatever reasons - poor economy, stupid ****ing people with no imaginations, etc - but it will still exist, guaranteed, even if the market for it is smaller than it is right now.
NOTE: This post was written under three consecutive Irish Car Bombs, and any incoherence is likely due to the effects of large amounts of Guiness, Jameson, and Bailey's Irish Creme...
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Decks
Commander
Ezuri, Renegade Leader (Aggro/Combo - Favorite) Skullbriar, the Walking Grave (Sac and Grave hijinks) Azusa, Lost but Seeking (Landfall hijinks) Kaalia of the Vast (Heavily modded)
NOTE: This post was written under three consecutive Irish Car Bombs, and any incoherence is likely due to the effects of large amounts of Guiness, Jameson, and Bailey's Irish Creme...
Wow. Actually, your post was pretty good even without considering that.
Anyway, as you said. The pen-and-paper stuff might go back into the niche market but it probably won't die. WoW and other MMOs will probably continue even though they're just as much of a drain on one's bank account because it's not as hard to get together and play with people. (Just type 'LFG' as opposed to stepping outside and interacting socially.)
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Do I Contradict Myself? Very Well Then I Contradict Myself.
i dunno, I think enough people will remember the old days of pen & paper games to miss the social aspect and creativity involved.
There's enough open-source game engines for online RPGs that arguments about creativity and customization may well end.
The real boon here goes to LARP because the people who play LARPs tend to crave social interaction, physical activity, costume/ambience, and improvisation over sitting in a chair all evening and effortlessly being or doing anything they want.
LARPing is hard work, and as much as we PnP gamers tend to look down on them as fringe, they have every right to be proud of their efforts. And I think this small undercurrent of personal practical achievement and social cachet will sustain a small but faithful core of IRL RPGs.
Table-Top Games are doomed. But don't get me wrong: the poll doesn't ask if this will be "soon" or "in 5.43 milliseconds". It just ask if it is doomed and the truth is every hobby is doomed. That's just natural. The industry of entertainment will find other ways to survive but, IMHO, in about 500 years people won't play DnD.
Now, I firmly believe that Table-Top Games are a hobby with many decades left. I do enjoy them a lot! =)
It's been said a few times already, but tabletop RPGs will never die, because they will always have one thing going for them: limitless customizability. As long as you can buy some books (or in my case PDFs, which I believe will actually help keep the industry alive by making it more available) and play a houseruled game with some of your buddies, tabletop RPGs will soldier on. WoW and other MMO's are great substitutes when you can't find a suitable playgroup, but it just doesn't stand up to the ability to write you own adventures, and make completely unique gaming experiences.
For example, in my D&D group, we were playing some premade adventures, but it was a house game (not RPGA sanctioned), and at one point our warlock (infernal pact) thought it would be a good idea to try summoning his patron entities, and try to make a deal for a little extra power. The DM saw this as an opportunity to deviate from the main adventure a bit, and long story short, we all ended up being sucked into hell, which we had to fight, lie, cheat, and steal our way out of.
The whole thing actually ended up becoming sort of a sub-plot throughout the campaign (which we followed through to epic destinies.) We continued playing pre-made adventures, but every once in a while we'd get another whiff of the residual consequences of our accidental encounter in hell. And there were personal details like that thrown in for all of our characters of course, the warlock's were just always the most memorable. I remember at epic tear, when said warlock discovered he was descended from Asmodeus, whom he had inadvertently signed a magically binding contract to kill. God, that was a great campaign!!
Something like that could never have happened in a video game, because so much of it happened on a whim; a random event completely un-related to the actual adventure, but that we noticed fit in quite conveniently. To this day, that night when we went to hell and back again was undoubtedly THE most fun I have EVER had playing ANY RPG, tabletop or otherwise. And it probably always will be. That's why tabletops will never die, because there will always be people (like me) who aren't satisfied with the limited shorelines MMOs present. I don't even much care for RPGA sanctioned games. The real fun is in the limitless potential of a game where you're allowed to say "**** what we're supposed to do! Let's try it this way!"
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"I am confident that if anyone actually
penetrates our facades, even the most
perceptive would still be fundamentally
unprepared for the truth of House Dimir."
— Szadek
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James Mishler, Scry and WotC alum, thinks that RPGs and "any game with 'collectable' in its name" are on their way out do to waning interest (and inteligence) of the newer generation of potential gamers. He says that, especially with the economy problems, people will stop buying games fast enough to keep the publishers out of the red.
Thoughts? Solutions?
--
Winner of the 2nd Design Survivor Contest
Creator of the Vorthos Card Contest
Winner of 12th and the 18th Short Story Contests
Creator of the Vs. Tournament.
--Runner of the Superhero Vs. Tounrament
--Runner of the Villian Vs. Tournament.
"Stoned players can't attack, block, or play spells or abilities."
Table top games may be going down to a low point BUT it will pick up again. Everything tends to do that.
He also argued that D&D's success was based mostly on two bouts of dumb luck (in pre-1ed and with 3ed).
It's pretty interesting (if grim) read.
--
Winner of the 2nd Design Survivor Contest
Creator of the Vorthos Card Contest
Winner of 12th and the 18th Short Story Contests
Creator of the Vs. Tournament.
--Runner of the Superhero Vs. Tounrament
--Runner of the Villian Vs. Tournament.
Also, WoW doesn't have dark elves.
and acts without effort.
Teaching without verbosity,
producing without possessing,
creating without regard to result,
claiming nothing,
the Sage has nothing to lose.
Skizzik_NZ, Apprentice of Turmoil from
The Izzet and Super Otaku Friend!
Maelstrom Graphics
Awesomes Sigs and Avatars Abound!
Don't Blood Elves count? They're Horde.
I think print versions of tabletop games are on their way out but pdf versions of the books will still be around and people will still create new material. I happen to have most of the 3E library and plan to use it indefinitely. 4E is garbage and just seems like a money grab. >.<
Selling RPG rulebooks as pdf's is a good idea though. One eight-pound laptop with ten pdf's versus thirty pounds of rulebooks, plus associated binders and notebooks? Yeah.
Of course, they still have to keep the quality up. D&D 4E's main strength, IMO, is Wizards' going in and applying a MtG-like standardization to the terminology and rules and such, but the main weakness was, of course, the WoW-like aesthetic. It was a nice try though.
Very Well Then I Contradict Myself.
NOTE: This post was written under three consecutive Irish Car Bombs, and any incoherence is likely due to the effects of large amounts of Guiness, Jameson, and Bailey's Irish Creme...
Commander
Ezuri, Renegade Leader (Aggro/Combo - Favorite)
Skullbriar, the Walking Grave (Sac and Grave hijinks)
Azusa, Lost but Seeking (Landfall hijinks)
Kaalia of the Vast (Heavily modded)
Standard
Waiting for Innistrad...
Extended
Hah!
Modern
Living End Cascade (RGB)
Legacy
Burn
Vintage
None
Casual
WB Aggro-Control
Green Stompy
Pink Floyd (UWr Wall Control)
Lunch Box (Fatty ramp)
D-Bag (White Control)
Level 13 Task Mage
Wow. Actually, your post was pretty good even without considering that.
Anyway, as you said. The pen-and-paper stuff might go back into the niche market but it probably won't die. WoW and other MMOs will probably continue even though they're just as much of a drain on one's bank account because it's not as hard to get together and play with people. (Just type 'LFG' as opposed to stepping outside and interacting socially.)
Very Well Then I Contradict Myself.
Might the table top game companies need to change their business models if this new economic trend becomes more permanent? Yes.
There's enough open-source game engines for online RPGs that arguments about creativity and customization may well end.
The real boon here goes to LARP because the people who play LARPs tend to crave social interaction, physical activity, costume/ambience, and improvisation over sitting in a chair all evening and effortlessly being or doing anything they want.
LARPing is hard work, and as much as we PnP gamers tend to look down on them as fringe, they have every right to be proud of their efforts. And I think this small undercurrent of personal practical achievement and social cachet will sustain a small but faithful core of IRL RPGs.
Now, I firmly believe that Table-Top Games are a hobby with many decades left. I do enjoy them a lot! =)
[Clan Flamingo]
The clan for custom card creators!
For example, in my D&D group, we were playing some premade adventures, but it was a house game (not RPGA sanctioned), and at one point our warlock (infernal pact) thought it would be a good idea to try summoning his patron entities, and try to make a deal for a little extra power. The DM saw this as an opportunity to deviate from the main adventure a bit, and long story short, we all ended up being sucked into hell, which we had to fight, lie, cheat, and steal our way out of.
The whole thing actually ended up becoming sort of a sub-plot throughout the campaign (which we followed through to epic destinies.) We continued playing pre-made adventures, but every once in a while we'd get another whiff of the residual consequences of our accidental encounter in hell. And there were personal details like that thrown in for all of our characters of course, the warlock's were just always the most memorable. I remember at epic tear, when said warlock discovered he was descended from Asmodeus, whom he had inadvertently signed a magically binding contract to kill. God, that was a great campaign!!
Something like that could never have happened in a video game, because so much of it happened on a whim; a random event completely un-related to the actual adventure, but that we noticed fit in quite conveniently. To this day, that night when we went to hell and back again was undoubtedly THE most fun I have EVER had playing ANY RPG, tabletop or otherwise. And it probably always will be. That's why tabletops will never die, because there will always be people (like me) who aren't satisfied with the limited shorelines MMOs present. I don't even much care for RPGA sanctioned games. The real fun is in the limitless potential of a game where you're allowed to say "**** what we're supposed to do! Let's try it this way!"
"I am confident that if anyone actually
penetrates our facades, even the most
perceptive would still be fundamentally
unprepared for the truth of House Dimir."