I think your expectation of fewer drops are optimistic. The payout is low enough and the type of people who'd drop are unlikely to be playing again. I see plenty of people dropping from 4-packs sealed even when they still have a shot at winning a pack by going 1-2. I doubt 2 untradable phantom ticket will sway them.
Worse, if you're right, then people won't drop: tey'll just disconnect and get their 2 tickets while you'll be stuck playing against a no-show, wasting 10 minutes in case they log back on. The joy.
I think your expectation of fewer drops are optimistic. The payout is low enough and the type of people who'd drop are unlikely to be playing again. I see plenty of people dropping from 4-packs sealed even when they still have a shot at winning a pack by going 1-2. I doubt 2 untradable phantom ticket will sway them.
Worse, if you're right, then people won't drop: tey'll just disconnect and get their 2 tickets while you'll be stuck playing against a no-show, wasting 10 minutes in case they log back on. The joy.
Well, it was something that basically never (like, <5% of the time) actually happened. It won't reach Swiss levels of the 0-2 match happening, but it will be better than before.
There's still 1.20 riding on the outcome of the 0-2 match.
Grimclaw, thank you for being so kind as to follow my math AND correct me! aside from the silly mixed fraction mistake i made, i had forgotten that you also still win phantom tix from the "free" event.
and thanks for calculating an updated answer for my own personal match win patterns, too
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Goblins have poor impulse control. Don't click this link!!
some of my favourite flavour text:
Wayward Soul "no home no heart no hope"
—Stronghold graffito
Raging Goblin He raged at the world, at his family, at his life. But mostly he just raged.
RtR paid mostly in DGM packs, which are below 1.8 tickets (4 of the 6 packs were DGM). That is a huge difference, like factor of 2x+.
How is it off? I'm giving examples of packs that are worth the stated amount. Obviously the value of packs fluctuates, but the percentages I gave are a guideline for some typical prices for packs we tend to see. Also, RTR was given as a prize for triple RTR draft.
Bots charge 2.5 for AVR, but you can really only reliably sell them for 2.25. The new system is way better for that set, AND it encourages people to play it, so it may launch more than once a day.
Sure, that's consistent with what I've said. OTOH, AVR is an unpopular format.
M14 was the only reasonable P. Sealed right now. New system changes that and puts the other two on equal footing. M14 is worse off while packs float so high, but is nearly equal for people that float between 1-2 and 2-1 records, and M14 is such a ****tarded set that I can't imagine somebody having a ridiculous 75% win-rate in Sealed on any significant timescale.
I've averaged over 70% win rate for M14 since the release (both draft and sealed).
Only for M14, with packs as overpriced as they are right now, is the new system mostly worse... and even not that for people that actually want to play three rounds consistently, or frequently go 1-2 more than a purely insignificant amount of the time.
That's why I gave the numbers I did. It depends purely on your win rate. More skilled players are worse off now, but less skilled players (such as those that go 1-2 in your example) are better off.
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Worse, if you're right, then people won't drop: tey'll just disconnect and get their 2 tickets while you'll be stuck playing against a no-show, wasting 10 minutes in case they log back on. The joy.
Well, it was something that basically never (like, <5% of the time) actually happened. It won't reach Swiss levels of the 0-2 match happening, but it will be better than before.
There's still 1.20 riding on the outcome of the 0-2 match.
and thanks for calculating an updated answer for my own personal match win patterns, too
Goblins have poor impulse control. Don't click this link!!
some of my favourite flavour text:
Wayward Soul
"no home no heart no hope"
—Stronghold graffito
Raging Goblin
He raged at the world, at his family, at his life. But mostly he just raged.
How is it off? I'm giving examples of packs that are worth the stated amount. Obviously the value of packs fluctuates, but the percentages I gave are a guideline for some typical prices for packs we tend to see. Also, RTR was given as a prize for triple RTR draft.
Sure, that's consistent with what I've said. OTOH, AVR is an unpopular format.
I've averaged over 70% win rate for M14 since the release (both draft and sealed).
That's why I gave the numbers I did. It depends purely on your win rate. More skilled players are worse off now, but less skilled players (such as those that go 1-2 in your example) are better off.