Not absolute proof, but I've bought Sacred Foundry for about 3.50ish last year, then had to liquidate, and rebought them at 8-ish, and have seen them as high as 15-ish. They're 5-ish now. (online prices)
As soon as Modern was announced (with the set range listed) there was a fairly large buying spree for ravnica shocks - a friend bought a playset of each shock, for around 5-10 per land, and by the time they had arrived each was worth 30-50 each. It was no exaggeration. Speculation at it's finest.
the peak price of Hallowed Fountain (avg) was 31 dollars and some change;
To be honest, when I went and played at GP Lincoln with U/W CawControl, I can honestly say I had the least amount of fun in a magic tournament ever. The only skill intensive match ups for me were the ones I couldn't just Steamroll over. Even the "Skill Intensive" match ups were ridiculous, because I would just be blown out of the water. It really is a Rock-Paper-Sissors format. So when I heard at the end that people were saying that Affinity was out of control in modern. I just laughed because of how the deck was effectively obliterated in the following weeks. I'm sure someone who plays Jund probably has fun with the format, but the format wasn't fun for me. Maybe I chose a poor deck, but it seems to show that it's still a baby format and needs to find it's place before it really comes to life. "Fun and Diverse" is different than R-P-S. Or, it's just not my thing.
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--------------------Modern----------------
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Before the announcement of Modern or Over Extended in any fashion You could get playsets of shock lands for $15-$20. As soon as Modern was announced any shockland that was blue spiked to between $35-$55 A PIECE. The have since leveled out to the $20-$30 range. So yes, for a short time CERTAIN shocks did spike to what hes claiming, but it was a very small percentage of cards that did. Some cards actually went down due to the flood of cards into the market.
Before the announcement of Modern or Over Extended in any fashion You could get playsets of shock lands for $15-$20. As soon as Modern was announced any shockland that was blue spiked to between $35-$55 A PIECE. The have since leveled out to the $20-$30 range. So yes, for a short time CERTAIN shocks did spike to what hes claiming, but it was a very small percentage of cards that did. Some cards actually went down due to the flood of cards into the market.
the peak price (averaged) of Hallowed Fountain was never over 35$. I mean, I'm sure starcity or other big online stores had them up for what you're claiming (35-55); but there were several other stores and eBay auctions that had them for lower.
the peak price (averaged) of Hallowed Fountain was never over 35$. I mean, I'm sure starcity or other big online stores had them up for what you're claiming (35-55); but there were several other stores and eBay auctions that had them for lower.
Anything blue normally goes a bit higher, also shocks from Dissension are a premium because not much was cracked. I know breeding pools were going for between $45-$55 for a bit. They are still $40+ at all the shops around me. The next highest is the blue/white one (the name escapes me right now). I am not saying all of them broke the barrier, but some did. Like I said, very few cards did.
Anything blue normally goes a bit higher, also shocks from Dissension are a premium because not much was cracked. I know breeding pools were going for between $45-$55 for a bit. They are still $40+ at all the shops around me. The next highest is the blue/white one (the name escapes me right now). I am not saying all of them broke the barrier, but some did. Like I said, very few cards did.
Are those Breeding pools selling for $40+? I picked mine up for about $30 a piece just over a month ago. I wouldn't pay much over that myself, but if they are not moving at those prices, then they are over-priced for sure. Usually the correct price is the one that allows you to maintain some stock, but still have some people buying them. Breeding Pool isn't the most commonly used Blue land, so I can't see it moving at $40+. Usually only the people that have and are running Goyf go for that one. The most popular one I have seen so far is Watery Grave, Hallowed Fountain and Steam Vents being the second most popular one, at least in my area that is.
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I feel like there is a problem with reading comprehension, or I am being intentionally misinterpreted. The poster that I challenged said that shocks went from five dollars to fifty dollars (aka 10x price) over night as a response to the announcement. Now, even if we take his "over night" with a large block of salt, the rest of it is still paranoid fantasy. Yes, some shocks were cheap before Modern, and some raised in price quite a bit in the weeks and months after, but in general no single shock (or any other Modern staple that I know of) increased ten times according to any reliable and verifiable source. That does not mean some crazy speculator on ebay and some anxious buyer did not make a transaction or two for shocks at ten times the price the same shocks were before the Modern announcement, outliers happen, but on average that was not the case. It was not even close so the number of outliers was not that high- though to be fair it could be possible that the poster (who has a lot of hate for online prices) plays at a FLGS that one of those outliers and took that to mean the whole market behaved that way.
I repeat, my contention is that no single Modern card increased in price ten times after the announcement of the format. Unless you have realible and verifiable evidence to the contrary, this issue is pointless to continue to discuss.
So because we cant go back in time to show you the price 10 times the amount, it never happened to you? Thats fine, believe as you wish. I know for a fact Breeding pools were $55 for a bit, (thats a 11X increase) are they now? Nope. No way to show you or prove it to you, so you wont believe it anyway.
Again, the cards it happened to are far and few between, and some cards actually went down in price due to the market getting flooded with them.
Even cards like Bob and Goyf spiked a bit and they were already high. I believe Bob went from $25-$30ish to $50+. Still that high depending on where you look or shop.
Dr.Worm, people try and make a point and you knit pick on specifics. You know what the poster was trying to get across, yet you want to argue semantics. Really getting tiresome.
So because we cant go back in time to show you the price 10 times the amount, it never happened to you? Thats fine, believe as you wish. I know for a fact Breeding pools were $55 for a bit, (thats a 11X increase) are they now? Nope. No way to show you or prove it to you, so you wont believe it anyway.
Again, the cards it happened to are far and few between, and some cards actually went down in price due to the market getting flooded with them.
Even cards like Bob and Goyf spiked a bit and they were already high. I believe Bob went from $25-$30ish to $50+. Still that high depending on where you look or shop.
Dr.Worm, people try and make a point and you knit pick on specifics. You know what the poster was trying to get across, yet you want to argue semantics. Really getting tiresome.
that website goes back in time just fine; the line you're seeing is the AVERAGE price; as in Yes there are baffoons that put hallowed fountain and breeding pools up for 10x their intial value; but there were sensible folks who had them far below that;
Making the absolute HIGHEST average price for Hallowed Fountain to be 31 dollars. As in, you may or may not have seen Breeding Pool sitting pretty at 55 dollars; but somewhere someplace there were Breed Pools being sold and bought for well below that. In fact, the Max average on Breeding Pool barely brushes the 30$ mark.
That's not really semantics; that's hard data, in Mr. DrWorm's favor.
Modern was a lot less fun when you were unsure whether the deck you sunk money into was going to get banned next set of bannings; now that it's a lot more stable, it's a diverse and interesting format.
^^ That's why I waited until PTQ Season to start buying into the format. I saw no point in seeing what I wanted to play until WOTC was done monkeying around with the ban list.
I feel like there is a problem with reading comprehension, or I am being intentionally misinterpreted. The poster that I challenged said that shocks went from five dollars to fifty dollars (aka 10x price) over night as a response to the announcement. Now, even if we take his "over night" with a large block of salt, the rest of it is still paranoid fantasy. Yes, some shocks were cheap before Modern, and some raised in price quite a bit in the weeks and months after, but in general no single shock (or any other Modern staple that I know of) increased ten times according to any reliable and verifiable source. That does not mean some crazy speculator on ebay and some anxious buyer did not make a transaction or two for shocks at ten times the price the same shocks were before the Modern announcement, outliers happen, but on average that was not the case. It was not even close so the number of outliers was not that high- though to be fair it could be possible that the poster (who has a lot of hate for online prices) plays at a FLGS that one of those outliers and took that to mean the whole market behaved that way.
I repeat, my contention is that no single Modern card increased in price ten times after the announcement of the format. Unless you have realible and verifiable evidence to the contrary, this issue is pointless to continue to discuss.
To be honest, I would take Ebay prices with a grain of salt. Most of the people selling on there have no clue on how to properly price something, and will often overcharge for stuff based on their own pre-conceptions of what they think will be good.
Look at how some of the people are pricing Vexing Devil already, they are insane for what will be a rare in very widely opened set. That's not speculation, that's scalping and seeing who the greater fool is.
I take most of the pricing scales on all of these cards outside of actual hard to find rares/mythics about as seriously as I do Standard prices for long-term after those cards rotate. Cards like Geaist of St. Traft will not see over $10 right after they rotate. It will take a couple of years before cards like that will hit $20, because of limitations on the cards themselves. Geist is not a Goyf/KotR, and a lot of the time, Goyf/KotR is just better.
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that website goes back in time just fine; the line you're seeing is the AVERAGE price; as in Yes there are baffoons that put hallowed fountain and breeding pools up for 10x their intial value; but there were sensible folks who had them far below that;
Making the absolute HIGHEST average price for Hallowed Fountain to be 31 dollars. As in, you may or may not have seen Breeding Pool sitting pretty at 55 dollars; but somewhere someplace there were Breed Pools being sold and bought for well below that. In fact, the Max average on Breeding Pool barely brushes the 30$ mark.
That's not really semantics; that's hard data, in Mr. DrWorm's favor.
Not going to argue semantics with you or Dr.Worm. I know the price of a few staples jumped 10 fold at certain places. If you shop at those places, you saw the jump. You go and post a project of pricing and it doesnt show how or where it gets its data. I am assuming its the price history from TCG. If its taking an average, the average of what? Ebay? Online stores? all of them? Sales at stores? The data isnt defined (at least from what I can see) and can be viewed in many ways.
Lets just say that the announcement of Modern spiked the prices of some cards. Like I said though, it also lowered the price of others once the flood of cards hit the market.
Not going to argue semantics with you or Dr.Worm. I know the price of a few staples jumped 10 fold at certain places. If you shop at those places, you saw the jump. You go and post a project of pricing and it doesnt show how or where it gets its data. I am assuming its the price history from TCG. If its taking an average, the average of what? Ebay? Online stores? all of them? Sales at stores? The data isnt defined (at least from what I can see) and can be viewed in many ways.
Lets just say that the announcement of Modern spiked the prices of some cards. Like I said though, it also lowered the price of others once the flood of cards hit the market.
it takes data from the same place you go when you see prices from linking cards on this website;
Therefore the 'average' price determined by BLP does indeed come from LOTS of online stores (in fact they tell you the number of cards in stock that day; that's what 'Volume' means when talking about a sampling size; however they do not list the stores they took the data from, but they DO come from multiple stores. Go figure)
It's a weighted Average. The same type of average you'd take given any sort of sample size; you have 5 cards at 25$ and you have 1 card priced at 21; therefore the average is then [(5x25)+(1x21)] / 6 ; It's simple, really.
He never said Modern cards didn't spike; he said that no Modern card spiked tenfold; or anywhere close to what alot people are claiming (50$ shocks); How the hell is that arguing semantics? You're backpeddling and trying to make someone elses argument vaguer to try to 'win' an argument with DrWorm.
this was posted by someone;
Originally Posted by SpeedGrapher
Guys, the crazy claims are only going to continue. The prices for modern are too high. Prices are not player driven either, they are store driven. Cards that were $2 went to $20 for no reason at all except the format announcement.
this was DrWorm's response;
What cards? I am not saying you are wrong, but I have not seen a single modern card that increased in value ten fold after the announcment.
and has been the only argument he has made.
then you offered this gem to the discussion;
To be fair shocklands spiked from $5 to around $50 for the initial buying spree, though they are back down to the 20-40 dollar range depending on which land and where you are looking.
You have no proof or evidence of this; saying something 'spiked' to 50$ is dumb when the average price of the card(s) in question (aka the price that you're MORE than capable of finding it at any given time) NEVER EXCEEDED 35$.
You're pretty dumb as a consumer to not 'shop around' when it comes to something like Magic cards; just because you shop at Wal-Mart and are looking for a blender doesn't mean you shouldn't check Amazon to maybe see if you can get it for 20$ cheaper.
I also like how you ask for proof then you completely discount a well-known website that has the proof you're looking for as being 'incorrect' whereas the only proof you have that the cards spiked to 50$ and 55$ is by anecdotal evidence.
And in fact DrWorm has already agreed to your sudden vague backpeddling with this;
I can believe a 4x or 5x increase in some cases, though the claim of overnight or the same day as the poster I am questioning claims, and the claim of x10 increases are highly unbelievable.
So yeah, cards spiked in price; No card reached such a level as increasing ten fold. You're incredibly wrong there. And there's plenty of evidence backing me up; and little to none backing up your claim of a market price of 50$ on any shock.
All I am going to say is I saw them at $50 at the first SCG event with a Modern side event. I am sure your sight doesnt take those sales into account. I know Misty Mountian and Pasttimes (both larger midwest stores) were selling some of the shocks for $50 and over. I saw it with my own 2 eyes. Not to mention the prices that were posted on Ebay. Whether or not those cards sold for that price, I know what they were asking.
So I cant post a graph or a link to show you that a YEAR AGO the price of a card spiked 10 fold, but they did. Not many, but some did. Doubt me all you want. I could really careless, not going to argue about the subject anymore. Get off MODO and go out to a real card shop or a big event and see the prices people are paying at those events.
By the way we are not talking about averages, we are taling about top dollar costs, so stop talking about averages.
All I am going to say is I saw them at $50 at the first SCG event with a Modern side event. I am sure your sight doesnt take those sales into account. I know Misty Mountian and Pasttimes (both larger midwest stores) were selling some of the shocks for $50 and over. I saw it with my own 2 eyes. Not to mention the prices that were posted on Ebay. Whether or not those cards sold for that price, I know what they were asking.
So I cant post a graph or a link to show you that a YEAR AGO the price of a card spiked 10 fold, but they did. Not many, but some did. Doubt me all you want. I could really careless, not going to argue about the subject anymore. Get off MODO and go out to a real card shop or a big event and see the prices people are paying at those events.
By the way we are not talking about averages, we are taling about top dollar costs, so stop talking about averages.
Starting to think Torm is my old nemesis....
3 examples does not make a representative sample especially if 2 of them are regional stores. It was already established in this thread that a lot of places use online prices as guide lines for store prices.
For the Ebay part, I have seen cards selling on Ebay for twice their market value as well as some selling for 1/3 of their market value. That doesn't throw out the market value. Especially considering Magic is a speculative market and open to cards in some places being sold for above their market price.
There are such a thing as outliers in data. If the average price for a card is listed as $35 and you see a card for $50, that doesn't make the average wrong. It makes the card you saw an outlier. Throwing out a random representative sample because of 3 instances of a different card price makes no sense.
Your last sentence makes no sense. What started this whole thing was Dr.Worm talking about averages or market prices. To argue against that then say "we aren't talking about that" is baffling. You are basically asking them to stop talking about what they have been talking about since they started talking about it. Especially since the original poster of this proposition was making a fallacy of composition.
All I am going to say is I saw them at $50 at the first SCG event with a Modern side event. I am sure your sight doesnt take those sales into account. I know Misty Mountian and Pasttimes (both larger midwest stores) were selling some of the shocks for $50 and over. I saw it with my own 2 eyes. Not to mention the prices that were posted on Ebay. Whether or not those cards sold for that price, I know what they were asking.
So I cant post a graph or a link to show you that a YEAR AGO the price of a card spiked 10 fold, but they did. Not many, but some did. Doubt me all you want. I could really careless, not going to argue about the subject anymore. Get off MODO and go out to a real card shop or a big event and see the prices people are paying at those events.
By the way we are not talking about averages, we are taling about top dollar costs, so stop talking about averages.
Starting to think Torm is my old nemesis....
Like i said before; I don't doubt that you've seen things for these prices at huge events; I'm talking about what the majority of people should expect to pay for a card; I'm talking about the market value of a card.
It's fairly obvious that big vendors like Starcity or people vending an event would have fairly high prices on cards; I needed a terminate to finish my list at an event once (during the Jund era); I had to pay 5 dollars for it. Just because a 50 cent uncommon was sold for 5 dollars on that day during that event doesn't mean the market price for Terminates increased ten fold. It means demand for them was very high in the 'micro-economy' that is a MTG Event.
No one said anything about averages or 'top dollar' costs initially. Am i wrong in assuming you were talking about the general market price of a card when you were saying (very generally) that cards these cards 'spiked' to 55 dollars a piece? You didn't say 'in his defense they were 55$ each at several events I attended' you very specifically said;
As soon as Modern was announced any shockland that was blue spiked to between $35-$55 A PIECE.
This to me at least, sounded like you were being incredibly general and thus were talking about what anyone would expect to pay for a Hallowed Fountain or Breeding Pool at any given time around the weeks that the Modern Announcement was fresh. Again, you backpedal.
In fact, I conceded this point a few posts back;
I mean, I'm sure starcity or other big online stores had them up for what you're claiming (35-55); but there were several other stores and eBay auctions that had them for lower.
And as for being 'your old nemesis', If you feel personally attacked by me, I apologize. I'd like to think we're all online acquaintances discussing a topic; not a group of angry people berating one another. And if you're trying to say I'm slipknot (this is just an assumption from past readings here), I'm rather offended that you think I listen to such horrible horrible music.
Thank you very much Torm. Bocephus and I have had many arguments before and he is likely continuing to arguing this because he generally has a problem with my points. He frequently he feels that my requests for objective data to support his positions are unnecessary and that his subjective experience in his shop is an accurate indicator for the whole meta-game. It is not unreasonable to say that we both probably jump to opposition a little quickly when it comes to a position taken by the other.
You explained very well process that BLP uses to determine it's prices, so I will nit go in to that. Yes, if all you look at is one site, one shop, then it may be possible to think that all prices went up the same rate. That is very small and egocentric thinking, but since SpeedGrapher has some strong opinions about online price guides, I can allow that he may have that tunnel-vision. Please read what I wrote, not what you think I said.
Dr.Worm, people try and make a point and you knit pick on specifics. You know what the poster was trying to get across, yet you want to argue semantics. Really getting tiresome.
I was responding to the hyperbole of one poster, that exaggerates the effect Modern had on the market and paints an incorrect picture of the format. I am not nit-picking semantics, I am questioning the accuracy of a statement. I have clearly accepted (multiple times) that market prices had increased, just not by anything close to the extent that Mr. Grapher claims. I even allowed for being wrong and admitted that I would cede the point if he could objectively prove it. It should also be said that I did not nit-pick one point in opposition to his post, I took issue with his entire post and tone. Frankly, the fact that took one of my points and then took up the banner of proving me wrong even though it was not your position is more nit-picky than anything.
You explained very well process that BLP uses to determine it's prices, so I will nit go in to that. Yes, if all you look at is one site, one shop, then it may be possible to think that all prices went up the same rate. That is very small and egocentric thinking, but since SpeedGrapher has some strong opinions about online price guides, I can allow that he may have that tunnel-vision.
I think the problem in the argument is coming down to this. Single instances of a card exceeding it's average market prices does not invalidate the average. I pointed it out in the post I made, it's a fallacy of composition. Especially when you two have been conceding that it is indeed possible for outliers to be around given the sample. No one is doubting what he is saying, we are doubting that his evidence is true of the whole.
I see the problem as you guys are speaking in averages, I am looking at certain instances. I conceded not every sale was 10 fold, hell probably not most of them. The fact is, there were cards that did spike to 10 fold for a time. They didnt stay that high, I never claimed they did.
I see the problem as you guys are speaking in averages, I am looking at certain instances. I conceded not every sale was 10 fold, hell probably not most of them. The fact is, there were cards that did spike to 10 fold for a time. They didnt stay that high, I never claimed they did.
That is a weird assumption, if you ask me, because I could counter it by saying "Are you kidding? I bought a hallowed fountain after the announcement for two dollars*" and you are saying that is a valid thing to base your opinion on? How is that in any way an indicator of anything? Whatever, I don't want to stir it up again.
I hope everyone realizes that if they were to re-print Goyf it's very likely the price of the original will stay around $100 a piece. The art and the border on the re-print will likely be different to make it easier to distinguish between the two. This is likely to be the case for all of the re-prints. I know if they re-printed Goyf, I would grab a foil and non-foil playset of the re-print and stash my originals away, so I can beat the piss out of the likely crappy looking re-print.
Goyf dropping from $100 to $10 would mean no one would sell their Goyf's that they likely paid over $50 a piece for. That means it would be even harder to get Goyf for those of you that did not already have him. IE you'd have even fewer copies available on the market, because people like me would be buying every copy I could find. I would not feel bad for it either, because people like you asked for it. You get what you deserve when you do not understand the economics behind what you are asking for.
Future Sight is not Beta. A reprint would kill the value of those cards, since they aren't really collectible (and I certainly wouldn't object, even though I have a playset of Goyfs). Furthermore, Future Sight borders are hideously ugly. There is nothing iconic about a Future Sight Tarmogoyf that makes it more desirable than an M13 Tarmogoyf.
If Goyf were reprinted in M13 and were available for $20, I would certainly be ecstatic to unload my Future Sight Tarmogoyfs for $50 and pick up two playsets of M13 Goyfs.
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Due to real-life obligations, I am taking a long break from Magic which may include missing the local Legacy GP. Apologies for not being able to keep my threads updated.
Future Sight is not Beta. A reprint would kill the value of those cards, since they aren't really collectible (and I certainly wouldn't object, even though I have a playset of Goyfs). Furthermore, Future Sight borders are hideously ugly. There is nothing iconic about a Future Sight Tarmogoyf that makes it more desirable than an M13 Tarmogoyf.
If Goyf were reprinted in M13 and were available for $20, I would certainly be ecstatic to unload my Future Sight Tarmogoyfs for $50 and pick up two playsets of M13 Goyfs.
Oh, the price would certainly drop significantly, but I can still see the future sight goyf being worth more than the other, even if most people didn't like the future sight border. It's older, and therefore would see a bit of difference in price between the two sets, like most cards do.
And if you have the future sight goyfs, you can always say something along the lines of "You kids these days don't know **** about pricey magic cards! Back in my day, we paid $100 bucks for a single tarmogoyf. Now that's real magic!"
Oh, the price would certainly drop significantly, but I can still see the future sight goyf being worth more than the other, even if most people didn't like the future sight border. It's older, and therefore would see a bit of difference in price between the two sets, like most cards do.
And if you have the future sight goyfs, you can always say something along the lines of "You kids these days don't know **** about pricey magic cards! Back in my day, we paid $100 bucks for a single tarmogoyf. Now that's real magic!"
Not to run too far off topic, but does anyone else worry about a shock reprint? If shocks are reindroduced into t2 wont their price triple for standard demand? Sad robot went from 4 to 15 dollars on his reprint(dropped eventually, but he was also simultaneously reprinted in commander decks.
Back to the topic: I hate people who whine about the ban list. Each card has reasonable explination as to why they are banned. They already said that they are thinking about dropping some cards from the list, but don't count on it.
To anyone suggesting the ban list be removed: enjoy losing 9/10 games to turn 1 hypergen and turn 1 skullclamp elves. Oh and cawblade? Yeah we didn't need any aggro decks is modern anyways.
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When does lightning bolt kill Emrakul? When your opponent's at three.
Not to run too far off topic, but does anyone else worry about a shock reprint? If shocks are reindroduced into t2 wont their price triple for standard demand? Sad robot went from 4 to 15 dollars on his reprint(dropped eventually, but he was also simultaneously reprinted in commander decks.
Back to the topic: I hate people who whine about the ban list. Each card has reasonable explination as to why they are banned. They already said that they are thinking about dropping some cards from the list, but don't count on it.
To anyone suggesting the ban list be removed: enjoy losing 9/10 games to turn 1 hypergen and turn 1 skullclamp elves. Oh and cawblade? Yeah we didn't need any aggro decks is modern anyways.
Shocks aren't going to $60. In fact, I can see them going down, because I've never seen a Standard-legal land going for the $20 that they are now.
I personally am going to open several boxes of each RTR block set, so I'm hoping to get most of my shocks from that, and trade for the rest.
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the peak price of Hallowed Fountain (avg) was 31 dollars and some change;
http://blacklotusproject.com/cards/Dissension/Hallowed+Fountain/
You can also look up any other card there if you'd like;
the blue based shocks were probably right around the 30-35$ range when you include shipping when Modern was first announced.
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the peak price (averaged) of Hallowed Fountain was never over 35$. I mean, I'm sure starcity or other big online stores had them up for what you're claiming (35-55); but there were several other stores and eBay auctions that had them for lower.
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Anything blue normally goes a bit higher, also shocks from Dissension are a premium because not much was cracked. I know breeding pools were going for between $45-$55 for a bit. They are still $40+ at all the shops around me. The next highest is the blue/white one (the name escapes me right now). I am not saying all of them broke the barrier, but some did. Like I said, very few cards did.
Are those Breeding pools selling for $40+? I picked mine up for about $30 a piece just over a month ago. I wouldn't pay much over that myself, but if they are not moving at those prices, then they are over-priced for sure. Usually the correct price is the one that allows you to maintain some stock, but still have some people buying them. Breeding Pool isn't the most commonly used Blue land, so I can't see it moving at $40+. Usually only the people that have and are running Goyf go for that one. The most popular one I have seen so far is Watery Grave, Hallowed Fountain and Steam Vents being the second most popular one, at least in my area that is.
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I repeat, my contention is that no single Modern card increased in price ten times after the announcement of the format. Unless you have realible and verifiable evidence to the contrary, this issue is pointless to continue to discuss.
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Again, the cards it happened to are far and few between, and some cards actually went down in price due to the market getting flooded with them.
Even cards like Bob and Goyf spiked a bit and they were already high. I believe Bob went from $25-$30ish to $50+. Still that high depending on where you look or shop.
Dr.Worm, people try and make a point and you knit pick on specifics. You know what the poster was trying to get across, yet you want to argue semantics. Really getting tiresome.
http://blacklotusproject.com/cards/Dissension/Hallowed+Fountain/
that website goes back in time just fine; the line you're seeing is the AVERAGE price; as in Yes there are baffoons that put hallowed fountain and breeding pools up for 10x their intial value; but there were sensible folks who had them far below that;
Making the absolute HIGHEST average price for Hallowed Fountain to be 31 dollars. As in, you may or may not have seen Breeding Pool sitting pretty at 55 dollars; but somewhere someplace there were Breed Pools being sold and bought for well below that. In fact, the Max average on Breeding Pool barely brushes the 30$ mark.
That's not really semantics; that's hard data, in Mr. DrWorm's favor.
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To be honest, I would take Ebay prices with a grain of salt. Most of the people selling on there have no clue on how to properly price something, and will often overcharge for stuff based on their own pre-conceptions of what they think will be good.
Look at how some of the people are pricing Vexing Devil already, they are insane for what will be a rare in very widely opened set. That's not speculation, that's scalping and seeing who the greater fool is.
I take most of the pricing scales on all of these cards outside of actual hard to find rares/mythics about as seriously as I do Standard prices for long-term after those cards rotate. Cards like Geaist of St. Traft will not see over $10 right after they rotate. It will take a couple of years before cards like that will hit $20, because of limitations on the cards themselves. Geist is not a Goyf/KotR, and a lot of the time, Goyf/KotR is just better.
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Not going to argue semantics with you or Dr.Worm. I know the price of a few staples jumped 10 fold at certain places. If you shop at those places, you saw the jump. You go and post a project of pricing and it doesnt show how or where it gets its data. I am assuming its the price history from TCG. If its taking an average, the average of what? Ebay? Online stores? all of them? Sales at stores? The data isnt defined (at least from what I can see) and can be viewed in many ways.
Lets just say that the announcement of Modern spiked the prices of some cards. Like I said though, it also lowered the price of others once the flood of cards hit the market.
it takes data from the same place you go when you see prices from linking cards on this website;
for example Hallowed Fountain;
Therefore the 'average' price determined by BLP does indeed come from LOTS of online stores (in fact they tell you the number of cards in stock that day; that's what 'Volume' means when talking about a sampling size; however they do not list the stores they took the data from, but they DO come from multiple stores. Go figure)
It's a weighted Average. The same type of average you'd take given any sort of sample size; you have 5 cards at 25$ and you have 1 card priced at 21; therefore the average is then [(5x25)+(1x21)] / 6 ; It's simple, really.
He never said Modern cards didn't spike; he said that no Modern card spiked tenfold; or anywhere close to what alot people are claiming (50$ shocks); How the hell is that arguing semantics? You're backpeddling and trying to make someone elses argument vaguer to try to 'win' an argument with DrWorm.
this was posted by someone;
this was DrWorm's response;
and has been the only argument he has made.
then you offered this gem to the discussion;
You have no proof or evidence of this; saying something 'spiked' to 50$ is dumb when the average price of the card(s) in question (aka the price that you're MORE than capable of finding it at any given time) NEVER EXCEEDED 35$.
You're pretty dumb as a consumer to not 'shop around' when it comes to something like Magic cards; just because you shop at Wal-Mart and are looking for a blender doesn't mean you shouldn't check Amazon to maybe see if you can get it for 20$ cheaper.
I also like how you ask for proof then you completely discount a well-known website that has the proof you're looking for as being 'incorrect' whereas the only proof you have that the cards spiked to 50$ and 55$ is by anecdotal evidence.
And in fact DrWorm has already agreed to your sudden vague backpeddling with this;
So yeah, cards spiked in price; No card reached such a level as increasing ten fold. You're incredibly wrong there. And there's plenty of evidence backing me up; and little to none backing up your claim of a market price of 50$ on any shock.
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So I cant post a graph or a link to show you that a YEAR AGO the price of a card spiked 10 fold, but they did. Not many, but some did. Doubt me all you want. I could really careless, not going to argue about the subject anymore. Get off MODO and go out to a real card shop or a big event and see the prices people are paying at those events.
By the way we are not talking about averages, we are taling about top dollar costs, so stop talking about averages.
Starting to think Torm is my old nemesis....
3 examples does not make a representative sample especially if 2 of them are regional stores. It was already established in this thread that a lot of places use online prices as guide lines for store prices.
For the Ebay part, I have seen cards selling on Ebay for twice their market value as well as some selling for 1/3 of their market value. That doesn't throw out the market value. Especially considering Magic is a speculative market and open to cards in some places being sold for above their market price.
There are such a thing as outliers in data. If the average price for a card is listed as $35 and you see a card for $50, that doesn't make the average wrong. It makes the card you saw an outlier. Throwing out a random representative sample because of 3 instances of a different card price makes no sense.
Your last sentence makes no sense. What started this whole thing was Dr.Worm talking about averages or market prices. To argue against that then say "we aren't talking about that" is baffling. You are basically asking them to stop talking about what they have been talking about since they started talking about it. Especially since the original poster of this proposition was making a fallacy of composition.
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Like i said before; I don't doubt that you've seen things for these prices at huge events; I'm talking about what the majority of people should expect to pay for a card; I'm talking about the market value of a card.
It's fairly obvious that big vendors like Starcity or people vending an event would have fairly high prices on cards; I needed a terminate to finish my list at an event once (during the Jund era); I had to pay 5 dollars for it. Just because a 50 cent uncommon was sold for 5 dollars on that day during that event doesn't mean the market price for Terminates increased ten fold. It means demand for them was very high in the 'micro-economy' that is a MTG Event.
No one said anything about averages or 'top dollar' costs initially. Am i wrong in assuming you were talking about the general market price of a card when you were saying (very generally) that cards these cards 'spiked' to 55 dollars a piece? You didn't say 'in his defense they were 55$ each at several events I attended' you very specifically said;
This to me at least, sounded like you were being incredibly general and thus were talking about what anyone would expect to pay for a Hallowed Fountain or Breeding Pool at any given time around the weeks that the Modern Announcement was fresh. Again, you backpedal.
In fact, I conceded this point a few posts back;
And as for being 'your old nemesis', If you feel personally attacked by me, I apologize. I'd like to think we're all online acquaintances discussing a topic; not a group of angry people berating one another. And if you're trying to say I'm slipknot (this is just an assumption from past readings here), I'm rather offended that you think I listen to such horrible horrible music.
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You explained very well process that BLP uses to determine it's prices, so I will nit go in to that. Yes, if all you look at is one site, one shop, then it may be possible to think that all prices went up the same rate. That is very small and egocentric thinking, but since SpeedGrapher has some strong opinions about online price guides, I can allow that he may have that tunnel-vision. Please read what I wrote, not what you think I said.
I was responding to the hyperbole of one poster, that exaggerates the effect Modern had on the market and paints an incorrect picture of the format. I am not nit-picking semantics, I am questioning the accuracy of a statement. I have clearly accepted (multiple times) that market prices had increased, just not by anything close to the extent that Mr. Grapher claims. I even allowed for being wrong and admitted that I would cede the point if he could objectively prove it. It should also be said that I did not nit-pick one point in opposition to his post, I took issue with his entire post and tone. Frankly, the fact that took one of my points and then took up the banner of proving me wrong even though it was not your position is more nit-picky than anything.
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I think the problem in the argument is coming down to this. Single instances of a card exceeding it's average market prices does not invalidate the average. I pointed it out in the post I made, it's a fallacy of composition. Especially when you two have been conceding that it is indeed possible for outliers to be around given the sample. No one is doubting what he is saying, we are doubting that his evidence is true of the whole.
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Future Sight is not Beta. A reprint would kill the value of those cards, since they aren't really collectible (and I certainly wouldn't object, even though I have a playset of Goyfs). Furthermore, Future Sight borders are hideously ugly. There is nothing iconic about a Future Sight Tarmogoyf that makes it more desirable than an M13 Tarmogoyf.
If Goyf were reprinted in M13 and were available for $20, I would certainly be ecstatic to unload my Future Sight Tarmogoyfs for $50 and pick up two playsets of M13 Goyfs.
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And if you have the future sight goyfs, you can always say something along the lines of "You kids these days don't know **** about pricey magic cards! Back in my day, we paid $100 bucks for a single tarmogoyf. Now that's real magic!"
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Not to run too far off topic, but does anyone else worry about a shock reprint? If shocks are reindroduced into t2 wont their price triple for standard demand? Sad robot went from 4 to 15 dollars on his reprint(dropped eventually, but he was also simultaneously reprinted in commander decks.
Back to the topic: I hate people who whine about the ban list. Each card has reasonable explination as to why they are banned. They already said that they are thinking about dropping some cards from the list, but don't count on it.
To anyone suggesting the ban list be removed: enjoy losing 9/10 games to turn 1 hypergen and turn 1 skullclamp elves. Oh and cawblade? Yeah we didn't need any aggro decks is modern anyways.
Shocks aren't going to $60. In fact, I can see them going down, because I've never seen a Standard-legal land going for the $20 that they are now.
I personally am going to open several boxes of each RTR block set, so I'm hoping to get most of my shocks from that, and trade for the rest.
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