I thought it might be interesting to start a discussion about Mulligans in Modern. We all know that each deck is different in what it can live with, and what it can't, and that is different depending on the matchup and whether you are drawing or playing first. That said I think that Modern players have some guidelines, and rules that they use in their own games.
When discussing pleas include what deck you are playing, how competitive your meta is, and the medium with which you play. MTGO, for example, is a little more brutal when it comes to opening hands than meat-space magic (IMO). Also talk about how many land you play, and what kind of mana-base you have (whether it is budget or not).
Thanks for creating this thread, because it is a really important aspect of deckbuilding and often overlooked.
I play Bant. I designed my deck with mulligans in mind, because they can be backbreaking. My deck needs a mana dork on t1, and I aggressively mulligan for it. To be safe, I run 9. That decision was entirely based on a mulligan percentage. The only thing even remotely broken about Bant is a big t2 play. Reducing mulligans is absolutely key to a winning strategy, as a 4 card hand isn't going to do it for you 90% of the time.
Unfortunately, I mainly play against myself on Cockatrice, but I've made some dang competitive decks there, and these are the mulligan tips I play by:
With Pod decks (Melira Pod, Twin Pod, etc.), always mulligan any hand without any mana dorks, 1- or 2-drops, or cheap disruption. A hand with a mana dork, a 1-/2-drop, or disruption that is 2 cmc or less can be kept. 1-land hands are shaky except if you have 2+ mana dorks. I'd probably mull an all-dork hand if it didn't have any other business in it (i.e. creature search, bigger dudes, disruption). (I tend to play 22-land Pod decks.)
With Jund decks, always, always mull a 1-land hand. No matter how much targeted discard and/or Bolts it contains, it's just not worth keeping. I'm also prone to shipping all hands with no creatures in them (manlands don't count as creatures) and all hands with no action that isn't 3+ cmc. (I play 24-land Jund.)
With Affinity, always throw back any hand without 0-drops or 1-drops. Thoughtcast, Galvanic Blast, mana rocks, manlands, and Steelshaper's Gift do not count as 1-drops--those 1-drops need to be creatures in order to count. Vault Skirge counts as a 1-drop--you're probably paying the life to cast this guy. (I play 16-land, 22+-mana source Affinity.)
Thanks for creating this thread, because it is a really important aspect of deckbuilding and often overlooked.
I play Bant. I designed my deck with mulligans in mind, because they can be backbreaking. My deck needs a mana dork on t1, and I aggressively mulligan for it. To be safe, I run 9. That decision was entirely based on a mulligan percentage. The only thing even remotely broken about Bant is a big t2 play. Reducing mulligans is absolutely key to a winning strategy, as a 4 card hand isn't going to do it for you 90% of the time.
interesting. 9 seems like a lot of mana dorks, who's your 9th?
why would you need to mulligan (except for mana)
if your deck is quick or well made up?
Because some hands you just can't win with, even if you have the right amount and right colors of mana.
If your hand is 4 lands and 3 spells that cost 4 mana, you have all the resources you need, etc., but most of the time that hand is just too slow and you won't be able to win the game.
There are several different situations, but the main gist of it is that if you can't win (or even if it is just improbable), regardless of mana, you need to mulligan.
Playing against Affinity, for example, you have to mulligan aggressively if your hand's durdly, because that deck will start punching you in the face repeatedly.
why would you need to mulligan (except for mana)
if your deck is quick or well made up?
It doesn't matter how well your deck is made up, if you draw cards that all serve the same purpose (i.e 3 beaters, or 3 dorks, w/e), you won't win. I play a Dredgevine deck, and I need to mulligan if I don't have 1)draw/discard: Magus of the Bazaar, Faithless Looting, Hedron Crab + Fetches, 2)Dredger: Golgari Grave-Troll (substituted with Golgari Thug when I play in real events, UNBAN HIM DAMN YOU), Stinkweed Imp, Life from the Loam. I can't win with a hand like: Misty Rainforest, Stomping Ground, Vengevine, GGT, Stinkweed Imp, Birds of Paradise, Birds of Paradise. I've got 14 cards that can discard/mill, but if I don't draw one, I'm just a bad beatdown deck. So you mull until you get what you need.
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Modern - RUG Delver RUG - Splinter Twin UR - Jund BRG
Legacy - RUG Delver RUG - Maverick GW - SI BG
Foreigning out SI, currently 33/75. The only thing better than a T1 kill is doing it with cards no one has ever heard of and/or can't read. If anyone has any of the usual pieces, PM me. I'm willing to buy/trade.
I play Modern on mtgo, and it's shuffler is a bit more random (and IMO more brutal), so I find myself having to mulligan at least once far more often than I do in meat-space. I did a couple of data sets using an established deck online and irl, and I had around 30% more hands that I had to mulligan when using mtgo.
My philosophy when it comes mulligans is I ask the question "can I cast almost all of the cards in my hand if I draw no more lands, and can I gain some board control with those cards?" The makeup of the deck influences that a bit too, but that is the basic idea.
While most of what is said above is very true, it's also very matchup dependent.
As largely being a control player, going into game 1, I always want to see 1 counterspell, 1 efficient removal spell, and some land.
Some hands you get all counters, which can be awesome against combo decks, but against something like Affinity, it'll be the death of you. Vice versa is true when keeping an all-removal hand vs. something like Storm. That being said, if I have my land, and other stuff that's needed, I generally keep game 1 and then I can choose my mulligans more aggressively game 2 and 3 if needed.
Generally speaking, I would much rather have removal in hand than counters game 1, as there are a lot more relevant targets for removal in the Modern format. Of course, there are also decks where removal & counters are largely irrelevant vs. (tron) but that's another story in itself.
Being on the draw, having a spell snare in hand is a HUGE advantage, since you generally don't care nearly as much about 1 drops resolving as you would most 2 drops. The 2 & 3 drops in Modern are the ones that are backbreaking for a control deck, as all 1 drops can be dealt with very efficiently via removal and such.
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Find me online - I'm on Cockatrice * Tag - Badd B - Or on MTGO - Tag - Cbus05
With Jund, you look at your hand and determine just how much your opponent will suffer and loath your hand. I've kept starting hands with one black mana and 3 hand disruption spells and won with those hands.
Realistically though, you need two lands in a starting hand for jund, and they ought to match the colors of the other things in your hand. Rarely do I ever mulligan to find specific cards against specific decks, except maybe hand disruption for combo.
As for playing against jund, a lot of people like to mull till they find a leyline of sanctity. Don't bother. It's certainly pretty good against jund, but don't throw away a perfectly reasonable starting hand to scramble for a leyline of sanctity. Though it helps protect you from early game hand disruption, we can pulse it on turn 3 and continue to pick your hand apart and throw burn at your face if we need to (which usually doesn't happen anyway, bolts are just good removal).
I'd only keep hands with one land and 3+ targeted discard spells against hard combo like UR Storm and Exarch Twin. Against every single other deck, the risk of not hitting land drops will injure my chances way too much.
I've lost plenty of games with 1-land Jund hands (that I thought were keepers because they had at least 2 1-drops) before I wised up.
Hey everyone, its my first post and I just wanted to weigh in given that i have been playing a lot of modern on cockatrice recently. When I learned how to play magic in general, I was playing a lot of cube at my LGS with some veteran players. The number one thing they taught me about mulligans is to determine whether your hand puts you in a position to win the game, and that has served me well so far. I realize this is a little ambiguous so I will try to clarify.
I play a very burn heavy grixis delver that ends up working a bit like sligh. G1, since I have little info about what I am up against, I just look for a clock, removal, and card advantage (Isochron scepter and Bob in my list). G2&3, however, I try to determine if my hand can effectively disrupt their particular gameplan enough to make my clock get there effectively. The worse the MU, the more I mulligan into having that disruption.
Anyway, just my two cents.
this is only tangentially related but does anyone else really hate the phrase "mana dork"
People used to say "mana elf" but since neither of the mana dorks that actually see extensive play are elves...
As far as mulligans go, it's as often a gut thing as anyone else. Play a deck long enough and you develop a feel for what kinds of hands are winning hands and what hands aren't.
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When you peer long enough through the depths, the depths peer also through you.
I've been playing Modern Goblins on Cockatrice, and I've found the hands that can stay...and the ones that need to go.
One land is keepable, if it's a Mountain, and I have a couple of one drops. Simian Spirit Guides make that a definite.
Any hand requires a way to deal damage right out of the gate. Any hand with only Goblin Arsonists has to go. Any hand with Goblin Guide and lands is good.
Goblin Grenade is not required, but it really helps.
I feel that if your running a deck that uses a fair selection of fetch or dual lands, and have a very cheap curve, like Boros for example, then a one land hand can be fine.
I've noticed that a lot of decks can muligan down to five but have enough first turn hand disruption to keep an even game.
That is probably true to some extent, but very few archetypes can be achieved with curves as low as Boros. That said I play D&T, which has a very low curve (nothing more than 3cmc) and is mono-white (in the most popular build), runs 23 land and Aether Vial, but I am leery about keeping a one land hand. In order for me to do that I would have to be looking at an amazing rest-of-the hand. Keeping one land is accepting that you can win (or get within spitting distance from winning) with only that one land, or at least be able to thoroughly disrupt your opponents' plans.
I've Mulliganed to 4 with UW Tron at least twice and won. Land, Land, Signet, Gifts is still pretty nuts, as long as they don't have spot discard or counter of course.
I play RUG Delver and my meta online varies from Twin to Tron to Jund to UW Delver making up over half of what I usually play against. I don't keep hands where I can't do anything on the first or second turn of the game. This means not keeping hands that look like 5 lands, bolt and leak as you need to be aggressive with this deck since it his little to no late game. Generally, though, this deck does not get hands that it can not keep. 5+ lands or one land consistently make up the only hands that usually have to be mull'd game one since I don't fancy the idea of luck at all.
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By: ol MISAKA lo
Cockatrice: Infallible
Mhjames: mtgsalvation: I DON'T SEE HOW THIS CARD IS GOOD. I KNOW PATRICK CHAPIN USED IT AND WENT 8-0, BUT THAT WAS A SMALL TOURNAMENT. THE CARD IS TOO SLOW. YOU NEED TO MAKE SURE THE OPPONENT HAS A SPELL IN THE GRAVEYARD
"I view that seventh card as a LUXURY." -Adam Yurchick
I started asking myself to make a compelling reason to keep 7 instead of going to 6. I accepted that 6 is the natural hand size when starting the game. I didn't get scared of going to 5. I found that I started winning a LOT more when I aggressively mulliganed. When you start viewing the seventh card as an indulgence instead of a given, you're going to get much better at Magic.
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I have been playing cawblades for a few months now, and i have found that the best hands have at least 2 lands (one if them dual or fetch), and least 1~2 counterspells, if i dont get that, then i mull.
Creatures here are nowhere near as necessary as other decks, and a spot removal is always a nixe pñlus, but it doesnt affect my choice sas much as lands and counters.
As a general note, most decks seem to be fine with 2 lands in the OP hand regardless of their curve, but it really depends on going first or second, since you get to draw another card.
As a general note, most decks seem to be fine with 2 lands in the OP hand regardless of their curve, but it really depends on going first or second, since you get to draw another card.
See, I strongly disagree with this. If I am playing Cubano Tempo (UWR), and I have only two lands in hand and my draw cards suck, then I am not comfortable playing through. The deck wants to be dropping delver, flipping it, and backing it up with removal and Geist. I am actually hoping I do not draw in to many lands, as my curve is low, but I want to make sure I have enough to play control/tempo cards so I do not want to be stuck at 2 lands. That is a very specific example, but it goes for most of the decks I run. D&T can get away with 2 lands in the opening hand, if it draws Vial and has good plays, and aggro infect can as well if the colors are good and especially if you have a Hierarch in hand.
The point of the minimum acceptable hand is that it is playable even if you get flood or screw for the next 3 turns, and I just don't see 2 lands as cutting it for most decks.
When discussing pleas include what deck you are playing, how competitive your meta is, and the medium with which you play. MTGO, for example, is a little more brutal when it comes to opening hands than meat-space magic (IMO). Also talk about how many land you play, and what kind of mana-base you have (whether it is budget or not).
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I play Bant. I designed my deck with mulligans in mind, because they can be backbreaking. My deck needs a mana dork on t1, and I aggressively mulligan for it. To be safe, I run 9. That decision was entirely based on a mulligan percentage. The only thing even remotely broken about Bant is a big t2 play. Reducing mulligans is absolutely key to a winning strategy, as a 4 card hand isn't going to do it for you 90% of the time.
CG
With Pod decks (Melira Pod, Twin Pod, etc.), always mulligan any hand without any mana dorks, 1- or 2-drops, or cheap disruption. A hand with a mana dork, a 1-/2-drop, or disruption that is 2 cmc or less can be kept. 1-land hands are shaky except if you have 2+ mana dorks. I'd probably mull an all-dork hand if it didn't have any other business in it (i.e. creature search, bigger dudes, disruption). (I tend to play 22-land Pod decks.)
With Jund decks, always, always mull a 1-land hand. No matter how much targeted discard and/or Bolts it contains, it's just not worth keeping. I'm also prone to shipping all hands with no creatures in them (manlands don't count as creatures) and all hands with no action that isn't 3+ cmc. (I play 24-land Jund.)
With Affinity, always throw back any hand without 0-drops or 1-drops. Thoughtcast, Galvanic Blast, mana rocks, manlands, and Steelshaper's Gift do not count as 1-drops--those 1-drops need to be creatures in order to count. Vault Skirge counts as a 1-drop--you're probably paying the life to cast this guy. (I play 16-land, 22+-mana source Affinity.)
interesting. 9 seems like a lot of mana dorks, who's your 9th?
Because some hands you just can't win with, even if you have the right amount and right colors of mana.
If your hand is 4 lands and 3 spells that cost 4 mana, you have all the resources you need, etc., but most of the time that hand is just too slow and you won't be able to win the game.
There are several different situations, but the main gist of it is that if you can't win (or even if it is just improbable), regardless of mana, you need to mulligan.
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
It doesn't matter how well your deck is made up, if you draw cards that all serve the same purpose (i.e 3 beaters, or 3 dorks, w/e), you won't win. I play a Dredgevine deck, and I need to mulligan if I don't have 1)draw/discard: Magus of the Bazaar, Faithless Looting, Hedron Crab + Fetches, 2)Dredger: Golgari Grave-Troll (substituted with Golgari Thug when I play in real events, UNBAN HIM DAMN YOU), Stinkweed Imp, Life from the Loam. I can't win with a hand like: Misty Rainforest, Stomping Ground, Vengevine, GGT, Stinkweed Imp, Birds of Paradise, Birds of Paradise. I've got 14 cards that can discard/mill, but if I don't draw one, I'm just a bad beatdown deck. So you mull until you get what you need.
Legacy - RUG Delver RUG - Maverick GW - SI BG
Foreigning out SI, currently 33/75. The only thing better than a T1 kill is doing it with cards no one has ever heard of and/or can't read. If anyone has any of the usual pieces, PM me. I'm willing to buy/trade.
My philosophy when it comes mulligans is I ask the question "can I cast almost all of the cards in my hand if I draw no more lands, and can I gain some board control with those cards?" The makeup of the deck influences that a bit too, but that is the basic idea.
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As largely being a control player, going into game 1, I always want to see 1 counterspell, 1 efficient removal spell, and some land.
Some hands you get all counters, which can be awesome against combo decks, but against something like Affinity, it'll be the death of you. Vice versa is true when keeping an all-removal hand vs. something like Storm. That being said, if I have my land, and other stuff that's needed, I generally keep game 1 and then I can choose my mulligans more aggressively game 2 and 3 if needed.
Generally speaking, I would much rather have removal in hand than counters game 1, as there are a lot more relevant targets for removal in the Modern format. Of course, there are also decks where removal & counters are largely irrelevant vs. (tron) but that's another story in itself.
Being on the draw, having a spell snare in hand is a HUGE advantage, since you generally don't care nearly as much about 1 drops resolving as you would most 2 drops. The 2 & 3 drops in Modern are the ones that are backbreaking for a control deck, as all 1 drops can be dealt with very efficiently via removal and such.
As far as curve and land base, 23 lands, non budget mana base and other than 3x lightning angel my curve stops at 2.
Flavor of the week.
Modern:
Boros
B/W Ghost Dad Blade
Thanks to Heroes of the Plane Studios.
Realistically though, you need two lands in a starting hand for jund, and they ought to match the colors of the other things in your hand. Rarely do I ever mulligan to find specific cards against specific decks, except maybe hand disruption for combo.
As for playing against jund, a lot of people like to mull till they find a leyline of sanctity. Don't bother. It's certainly pretty good against jund, but don't throw away a perfectly reasonable starting hand to scramble for a leyline of sanctity. Though it helps protect you from early game hand disruption, we can pulse it on turn 3 and continue to pick your hand apart and throw burn at your face if we need to (which usually doesn't happen anyway, bolts are just good removal).
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I've lost plenty of games with 1-land Jund hands (that I thought were keepers because they had at least 2 1-drops) before I wised up.
I play a very burn heavy grixis delver that ends up working a bit like sligh. G1, since I have little info about what I am up against, I just look for a clock, removal, and card advantage (Isochron scepter and Bob in my list). G2&3, however, I try to determine if my hand can effectively disrupt their particular gameplan enough to make my clock get there effectively. The worse the MU, the more I mulligan into having that disruption.
Anyway, just my two cents.
People used to say "mana elf" but since neither of the mana dorks that actually see extensive play are elves...
As far as mulligans go, it's as often a gut thing as anyone else. Play a deck long enough and you develop a feel for what kinds of hands are winning hands and what hands aren't.
One land is keepable, if it's a Mountain, and I have a couple of one drops. Simian Spirit Guides make that a definite.
Any hand requires a way to deal damage right out of the gate. Any hand with only Goblin Arsonists has to go. Any hand with Goblin Guide and lands is good.
Goblin Grenade is not required, but it really helps.
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Currently playing:
UW Modern Tron WU
UR Modern Storm RU
UW [CARD]Rasputin Dreamweaver
[/CARD] UW
By: ol MISAKA lo
Cockatrice: Infallible
I started asking myself to make a compelling reason to keep 7 instead of going to 6. I accepted that 6 is the natural hand size when starting the game. I didn't get scared of going to 5. I found that I started winning a LOT more when I aggressively mulliganed. When you start viewing the seventh card as an indulgence instead of a given, you're going to get much better at Magic.
Creatures here are nowhere near as necessary as other decks, and a spot removal is always a nixe pñlus, but it doesnt affect my choice sas much as lands and counters.
As a general note, most decks seem to be fine with 2 lands in the OP hand regardless of their curve, but it really depends on going first or second, since you get to draw another card.
The point of the minimum acceptable hand is that it is playable even if you get flood or screw for the next 3 turns, and I just don't see 2 lands as cutting it for most decks.
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