Grand Prix Antwerp: Discussion & Coverage October 26 - 27, 2013
Event Coverage Official Event Coverage and Reports on Daily MTG: Link here Official MTG Site: Link here Twitch Streaming: Link here Live video from #gpantwerp starts Sat. at 2 pm local time/Noon GMT/8 am ET.
2013 was a big year for Modern. We had a huge Modern PTQ season, a set released just for our format, tons of GPs and coverage, many new and exciting decks, controversial ban announcements, and an up-and-down metagame cycle that hasn't stabilized to this day. GP Antwerp is the last Modern GP of the year, and it promises to bring together all of those different pieces of the year into one globally broadcasted and attended showdown.
Going into the Grand Prix, it's hard to say how any of the tables are going to look, let alone the top ones. BGx decks (Jund, BG Rock, Ajundi, and Junk) are rampant on MTGO right now, with a whopping 22% share of the metagame. But Affinity and RG Tron maintain respectable shares in their own right (11% and 9% respectively) with very solid BGx matchups of their own. There are also tons of rogue decks that have succeeded in smaller events over the past months and might look to explode onto the GP scene. Amulet of Vigor, Delver, Merfolk, Restore Balance, Assault Loam, Griselbrand Reanimator, and a bunch of other decks could threaten to break onto the competitive stage. And with all the recent mono-colored Standard action, it's possible that a similar deck make some waves in Modern. No matter how it turns out, GP Antwerp promises to be a fitting and exciting end for a great year of Modern.
Here are some predictions and discussion starters to get conversation going:
And the winner is...Affinity!
BGx is definitely the safer bet here, with its 55/45 matchups across the metagame. Or Pod with its versatility and track record. But I'm going with Affinity because I think that this deck is uniquely suited to take down this metagame. Affinity has a strong BGx matchup, and because that midrange monster is likely to make up a solid 20-25% of the metagame, that's already a bunch of wins that Affinity can take early on. Sure, BGx has ways of stopping Affinity (Lingering Souls, Stony Silence, etc.), but Affinity can pack in the Thoughtseizes and the almighty Etched Champion to take that matchup anyway. It's worth mentioning that GP Brisbane got taken down by an Affinity pilot who plowed through TWO BGx decks in his top 8 matches. Affinity also has a ton of strong matchups against the other decks that are liable to show up in the field, including both RG Tron (the Jund killer) and Pod. On top of that, Affinity just has a lot of unfair interactions, whether as a turn 3 combo deck, a turn 3-4 aggro deck, or as a creature-based deck with remarkable resilience to removal in the form of the Nexus lands and Ravager. Affinity is currently the Dredge of our format, and right now I think boards and decks are unprepared to handle it.
This GP is going to be awesome. I fully expect to see no less than 6 unique archeypes in the Top 8. And I don't mean 6 different flavors of BGx and Pod.
I also expect to see a Mono-Black Nykthos deck in the top 16. Possibly a Master of Waves deck, but not merfolk, as from what I've heard, BGx is a poor matchup for that deck.
It would be sweet to see a Nykthos fueled elf and/or Genesis Wave deck as well.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Thanks to Rivenor for the signature and XenoNinja for the Avi!
This GP is going to be awesome. I fully expect to see no less than 6 unique archeypes in the Top 8. And I don't mean 6 different flavors of BGx and Pod.
I also expect to see a Mono-Black Nykthos deck in the top 16. Possibly a Master of Waves deck, but not merfolk, as from what I've heard, BGx is a poor matchup for that deck.
It would be sweet to see a Nykthos fueled elf and/or Genesis Wave deck as well.
I highly doubt that Mono-Black will do anything at this tournament. Any deck that is that good would have been seen on MTGO by now. I would love to see Combo Elves or Genesis Wave do well. It would also be nice if Esper Zur, Ad Nauseum, Amulet of Vigor, Assault Loam, and Griselbrand Reanimator did well.
I really hope that this GP don't become a GBx fest on the top 8, surely one or two slots of the top8 will be GBx since there will be so much people playing it. But as long it don't win and don't take half of the top8, i will be happy with it.
I really hope that this GP don't become a GBx fest on the top 8, surely one or two slots of the top8 will be GBx since there will be so much people playing it. But as long it don't win and don't take half of the top8, i will be happy with it.
It didn't get half the top 8 last time. There were only 3 BGx decks in it.
I know that. I just hope this number don't increase.
I highly doubt that it will. Everyone is expecting BGx right now. I think that we are going to see people playing decks that can specifically beat BGx, which means Tron and Affinity will dominate this.
I suppose what really matters is the total number of BGx decks in the field. If half the top 8 is BGx, while only 20% of the field showed up with it, then there's a power level problem. If half the field is BGx, and half the top 8 is BGx, well then you just have a diversity problem.
I'm pretty much rooting for anything not BGx nor Pod.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"I have seen the true path. I will not warm myself by the fire—I will become the flame."
—Lim-Dûl, the Necromancer
I'm betting Affinity wins this. That deck is the best performing deck on MTGO right now in terms of its win percentage and its 4-0/3-1 percentage as a function of its total occurrences. In past GPs, it has always been a good bet to side with the decks that are performing well on MTGO, and Affinity is really well positioned. It's the least fair deck in the format that hasn't been hit by a ban. It has turn 3 combo wins, turn 3/4 aggro wins, good topdecks, and lots of resilience to removal courtesy of the Nexus lands and Ravager. Affinity has a lot of strong game 1 matchups in the format, and even its weak matchups can be won on speed and power alone. Not only does it overrun BGx, but it also has a decent to favorable matchup against the other main BGx foe: Tron.
I'm betting Affinity wins this. That deck is the best performing deck on MTGO right now in terms of its win percentage and its 4-0/3-1 percentage as a function of its total occurrences. In past GPs, it has always been a good bet to side with the decks that are performing well on MTGO, and Affinity is really well positioned. It's the least fair deck in the format that hasn't been hit by a ban. It has turn 3 combo wins, turn 3/4 aggro wins, good topdecks, and lots of resilience to removal courtesy of the Nexus lands and Ravager. Affinity has a lot of strong game 1 matchups in the format, and even its weak matchups can be won on speed and power alone. Not only does it overrun BGx, but it also has a decent to favorable matchup against the other main BGx foe: Tron.
I agree. But Affinity was hit with 5 bans and there are less fair decks in the format, so I don't think that part of what you said is true.
I agree. But Affinity was hit with 5 bans and there are less fair decks in the format, so I don't think that part of what you said is true.
I can't think of any tier 1 deck that is doing more unfair things with the same consistency as Affinity. I can think of more than a few tier 2 or lower decks that have the inconsistent potential to be less fair. But for that balance of consistency and sheer power, it doesn't get better than Affinity. And with a metagame skewed towards BGx, Tron, Pod, and other similar decks, Affinity is really well-positioned to exploit this and win big.
I've played a ton of Affinity games against an Affinity-loving friend. If I can't muster much disruption, he usually has a guaranteed turn-three win. I expect to see two things from this GP: 1) at least one Affinity deck in the top 8 and 2) Hurkyl's Recall and similar cards in sideboards.
I've played a ton of Affinity games against an Affinity-loving friend. If I can't muster much disruption, he usually has a guaranteed turn-three win. I expect to see two things from this GP: 1) at least one Affinity deck in the top 8 and 2) Hurkyl's Recall and similar cards in sideboards.
If I were an Affinity pilot, my only concern would be the Stony Silence. It's almost impossible to win once that card lands, especially if dropped by a proactive deck like Junk or Ajundi.
Sadly, the more I think about it, the more I realize that BGx Midrange or Melira Pod is likely to win this. I was just trying to be optimistic with the Affinity bet, but the scales are solidly tipped towards one of those two deck groups.
Sadly, the more I think about it, the more I realize that BGx Midrange or Melira Pod is likely to win this. I was just trying to be optimistic with the Affinity bet, but the scales are solidly tipped towards one of those two deck groups.
Why is that? Affinity managed to win the last GP, why not this one?
Why is that? Affinity managed to win the last GP, why not this one?
If Affinity makes it to the top 8, then it should win. I'd bet on that for sure. But probabilistically, BGx is the better bet because it has the best average matchup over the course of the event, and because the most players are probably going to be on it. That said, I'll still probably clock my final prediction as Affinity. BGx may have the better average matchup (it's the 55/45 deck of the format), but Affinity has the 60+/40- matchups against the decks that make up this current metagame. Those favorable matchups will matter more, I think, than the average BGx matchup. So yeah, ultimately I'm sticking with my Affinity bet, even if I will probably just set myself up for another GP Detroit style letdown on Sunday.
October 26 - 27, 2013
Event Coverage
Official Event Coverage and Reports on Daily MTG: Link here
Official MTG Site: Link here
Twitch Streaming: Link here
Live video from #gpantwerp starts Sat. at 2 pm local time/Noon GMT/8 am ET.
Twitter Hashtag: #gpantwerp
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Winner
Patrick Dickmann (UR Twin)
Finals Results
Dickmann (Twin) beats Anteri (RG Tron): 2-0
Semifinals results
Anteri (RG Tron) beats Sotiriadi (Jund): 2-0
Dickmann (Twin) vs. Bjorklund (Living End): 2-1
Quarterfinals results
Anteri (RG Tron) beats Bonneau (Living End): 2-0
Sotiriadi (Jund) beats Runarsson (Infect): 2-1
Dickmann (Twin) beats Hendriks (Twin): 2-0
Bjorklund (Living End) beats Fior (Affinity): 2-0
Top 8
RG Tron
Living End
Living End
Infect
Twin
Jund
Affinity
Twin
Top 16
Jund
Jund
Affinity
Melira Pod
Living End
Affinity
Kiki Pod
Melira Pod
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2013 was a big year for Modern. We had a huge Modern PTQ season, a set released just for our format, tons of GPs and coverage, many new and exciting decks, controversial ban announcements, and an up-and-down metagame cycle that hasn't stabilized to this day. GP Antwerp is the last Modern GP of the year, and it promises to bring together all of those different pieces of the year into one globally broadcasted and attended showdown.
Going into the Grand Prix, it's hard to say how any of the tables are going to look, let alone the top ones. BGx decks (Jund, BG Rock, Ajundi, and Junk) are rampant on MTGO right now, with a whopping 22% share of the metagame. But Affinity and RG Tron maintain respectable shares in their own right (11% and 9% respectively) with very solid BGx matchups of their own. There are also tons of rogue decks that have succeeded in smaller events over the past months and might look to explode onto the GP scene. Amulet of Vigor, Delver, Merfolk, Restore Balance, Assault Loam, Griselbrand Reanimator, and a bunch of other decks could threaten to break onto the competitive stage. And with all the recent mono-colored Standard action, it's possible that a similar deck make some waves in Modern. No matter how it turns out, GP Antwerp promises to be a fitting and exciting end for a great year of Modern.
Here are some predictions and discussion starters to get conversation going:
And the winner is...Affinity!
BGx is definitely the safer bet here, with its 55/45 matchups across the metagame. Or Pod with its versatility and track record. But I'm going with Affinity because I think that this deck is uniquely suited to take down this metagame. Affinity has a strong BGx matchup, and because that midrange monster is likely to make up a solid 20-25% of the metagame, that's already a bunch of wins that Affinity can take early on. Sure, BGx has ways of stopping Affinity (Lingering Souls, Stony Silence, etc.), but Affinity can pack in the Thoughtseizes and the almighty Etched Champion to take that matchup anyway. It's worth mentioning that GP Brisbane got taken down by an Affinity pilot who plowed through TWO BGx decks in his top 8 matches. Affinity also has a ton of strong matchups against the other decks that are liable to show up in the field, including both RG Tron (the Jund killer) and Pod. On top of that, Affinity just has a lot of unfair interactions, whether as a turn 3 combo deck, a turn 3-4 aggro deck, or as a creature-based deck with remarkable resilience to removal in the form of the Nexus lands and Ravager. Affinity is currently the Dredge of our format, and right now I think boards and decks are unprepared to handle it.
Or Esper Zur become a full-fledged thing.
Anyway I guess I'll set up the No Punt Zone...
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
I also expect to see a Mono-Black Nykthos deck in the top 16. Possibly a Master of Waves deck, but not merfolk, as from what I've heard, BGx is a poor matchup for that deck.
It would be sweet to see a Nykthos fueled elf and/or Genesis Wave deck as well.
Thanks to Rivenor for the signature and XenoNinja for the Avi!
Quotes:
I highly doubt that Mono-Black will do anything at this tournament. Any deck that is that good would have been seen on MTGO by now. I would love to see Combo Elves or Genesis Wave do well. It would also be nice if Esper Zur, Ad Nauseum, Amulet of Vigor, Assault Loam, and Griselbrand Reanimator did well.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
—Lim-Dûl, the Necromancer
We should really just measure metagames in units of Deathrite per pile.
It didn't get half the top 8 last time. There were only 3 BGx decks in it.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
Modern : Huh?
EDH : UBGW Thrasios / Tymna Combo UBGW // GRW Mayael Big Stuff GRW // GU Edric Timewalkers GU
I highly doubt that it will. Everyone is expecting BGx right now. I think that we are going to see people playing decks that can specifically beat BGx, which means Tron and Affinity will dominate this.
BGx is the deck to beat. Twin doesn't stand a chance.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
I'm pretty much rooting for anything not BGx nor Pod.
—Lim-Dûl, the Necromancer
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
I agree. But Affinity was hit with 5 bans and there are less fair decks in the format, so I don't think that part of what you said is true.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
calling liberals loons=not okay
The standard to which the forum moderators apply the rules here.
I can't think of any tier 1 deck that is doing more unfair things with the same consistency as Affinity. I can think of more than a few tier 2 or lower decks that have the inconsistent potential to be less fair. But for that balance of consistency and sheer power, it doesn't get better than Affinity. And with a metagame skewed towards BGx, Tron, Pod, and other similar decks, Affinity is really well-positioned to exploit this and win big.
If I were an Affinity pilot, my only concern would be the Stony Silence. It's almost impossible to win once that card lands, especially if dropped by a proactive deck like Junk or Ajundi.
Sadly, the more I think about it, the more I realize that BGx Midrange or Melira Pod is likely to win this. I was just trying to be optimistic with the Affinity bet, but the scales are solidly tipped towards one of those two deck groups.
UBRGrixis ControlUBR | URPhoenixUR | UWMiraclesUW |GBRJundGBR | UBFaeriesUB | UBWAd NauseumUBW |GBRWBlueless ShadowGBRW |
MTGA
UBRGrixis ControlUBR | UTempoU
I highly doubt that that will happen. Now when Waste Not gets printed and 8-Rack becomes viable, we might see that happen.
Why is that? Affinity managed to win the last GP, why not this one?
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
Im a big fan of 8-rack, but i strongly doubt its consistency in competitive events
UBRGrixis ControlUBR | URPhoenixUR | UWMiraclesUW |GBRJundGBR | UBFaeriesUB | UBWAd NauseumUBW |GBRWBlueless ShadowGBRW |
MTGA
UBRGrixis ControlUBR | UTempoU
If Affinity makes it to the top 8, then it should win. I'd bet on that for sure. But probabilistically, BGx is the better bet because it has the best average matchup over the course of the event, and because the most players are probably going to be on it. That said, I'll still probably clock my final prediction as Affinity. BGx may have the better average matchup (it's the 55/45 deck of the format), but Affinity has the 60+/40- matchups against the decks that make up this current metagame. Those favorable matchups will matter more, I think, than the average BGx matchup. So yeah, ultimately I'm sticking with my Affinity bet, even if I will probably just set myself up for another GP Detroit style letdown on Sunday.
Well, we will see when Waste Not comes out.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.