If Affinity makes it to the top 8, then it should win. I'd bet on that for sure. But probabilistically, BGx is the better bet because it has the best average matchup over the course of the event, and because the most players are probably going to be on it. That said, I'll still probably clock my final prediction as Affinity. BGx may have the better average matchup (it's the 55/45 deck of the format), but Affinity has the 60+/40- matchups against the decks that make up this current metagame. Those favorable matchups will matter more, I think, than the average BGx matchup. So yeah, ultimately I'm sticking with my Affinity bet, even if I will probably just set myself up for another GP Detroit style letdown on Sunday.
Especially game one. Affinity decks are heavily favored to win the first game against pretty much any other deck in the field. If the opponent doesn't have the hate, game two is also a win. That's why I expect to see lots of Affinity sideboard hate. Really, it's the same cycle as ever: Affinity wrecks, people sideboard for it, Affinity dwindles, people stop sideboarding for it...
Also @mikej : Who's the redhead in your sig? If it's an anime I haven'T seen yet might do so just for her xP
The red head is Ibuki Suika, an Oni from Japanese mythology, and she isn't from a anime, but a game series called "Touhou Project." My signature was inspired by Sixten's Lotus Cobra is Evil skit here with Suika resembling Primeval Titan.
And now something to do with MTG... URW could be a good contender this GP, but with a few more days to go it could be anything.
Is there a card(s) that came out in Theros that has helped a deck(s) more then the GBx shell? Did we get a better counter? Something to make Affinity better or worse? Something to boost Pod? I dont see anything. I dont see anything different for this event. GBx will probably be dominate, control of any kind will be under played, combo will be a fringe deck, and aggro will have Affinity. The only way I see the BGx decks to not be dominate is if the cost issue comes into play, which I doubt.
only thing that was borderline playable was anger of the gods, which helps red decks poop on pod more. otherwise, i don't expect devotion to make a splash. i think black would be the most playable devotion deck, but even then, its main hitters are at 5cmc, which is way too high for modern.
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Especially game one. Affinity decks are heavily favored to win the first game against pretty much any other deck in the field. If the opponent doesn't have the hate, game two is also a win. That's why I expect to see lots of Affinity sideboard hate. Really, it's the same cycle as ever: Affinity wrecks, people sideboard for it, Affinity dwindles, people stop sideboarding for it...
This cycle sounds eerily familiar to dredge in Legacy, and by eerily familiar I mean the exact same
That said Affinity is the most unfair tier 1 deck and I would hedge on it as well, they also get Blood Moon post board which auto wins them several Match-Ups
If we see anything with Devotion it is going to be either Fish with Thassa and Master Of Waves or Elves with Nykthos and maybe Nylea/Xenagos
All In Red is to slow for the field so a Devotion Red deck would not work and Mono Black is just to slow
We could see some Mono White Stax Devotion decks featuring RiP and Leylines as well as Suppression Fields, Leonin Arbiters, etc. The problem is these decks are inconsistent and weak to Decay
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Modern:
Paper: WUR Waffle Control, RG and U Tron
MTGO: U Tron, BRG Living End, B Infect
Testing Modern on MTGO and helping to craft decks on a Budget I stream!
I think that Affinity would have to get pretty darn lucky to win another GP. Affinity has horrible match ups against most decks splashing white for Linger Souls and/or Stony Silence, as well as Kitaki. Then there's UWR that crushes it with Electrolyze and a whole slew of targeted removals.
My bet is for traditional Jund, now armed with Xenagos and Anger of the Gods for additional card advantage.
the first modern thing when i saw nykthos was death cloud. but we'll see. i don't think the set gave us that much for the format. the next set however, with its designers, may give us some super things.
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1) A Domri Naya deck finally gets beyond the T16 into the T8
2) Master of Waves or Thassa appear in the T16
3) Delver makes a comeback
4) Less combo decks and midrange, more tempo, aggro and control.
My predictions
1) If Jund/GB wins or get into the top8, people will complain and say modern is dead and a terrible format
2) If Jund/GB doesn't win or get into the top8, people will complain and say modern is dead and a terrible format
Yeah I hope that more decks will be represented esp Naya Zoo.
If Jund didn't win or get into the top 8, I will be happy for once to see that other decks actually have a fighting chance other then fast combo's/aggro which prey on jund.
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Standard : What is Stand-tart
Modern : Huh?
EDH : UBGW Thrasios / Tymna Combo UBGW // GRW Mayael Big Stuff GRW // GU Edric Timewalkers GU
It doesn't really matter if there are people playing "counter" decks if 1/4 of the decks are BG/x then it's going to get top 8. As to what wins as always it will come down to who draws the best cards in the top 8. Jund can beat affinity pod or tron there is no deck in the format that never mulls to 6.
It doesn't really matter if there are people playing "counter" decks if 1/4 of the decks are BG/x then it's going to get top 8. As to what wins as always it will come down to who draws the best cards in the top 8. Jund can beat affinity pod or tron there is no deck in the format that never mulls to 6.
As you said, it's a safe bet that BGx is going to make up a solid 20-25% of the GP metagame, and the deck is consistent enough that this share should translate to the top 8/16. So 4 BGx in the Top 16 and 2 BGx in the Top 8 would be expected, and even in the best case scenario I don't see that changing. The real issue for me is when those decks start overrepresenting. If GP Detroit repeats, then I'm hopping on board the "ban wagon". But if GP Brisbane repeats, then I'm just going to keep hoping for the Preordain unban.
Day 2 prevalence is also an important datapoint here, as are the undefeated decklists. We should expect, in all cases, that BGx will make up between 20-25% of those lists just because most people are playing the deck. So long as the deck is performing as expected, I'm not too worried. But if BGx gets over that share in any of those categories, that's overperformance, and that's a problem.
As you said, it's a safe bet that BGx is going to make up a solid 20-25% of the GP metagame, and the deck is consistent enough that this share should translate to the top 8/16. So 4 BGx in the Top 16 and 2 BGx in the Top 8 would be expected, and even in the best case scenario I don't see that changing. The real issue for me is when those decks start overrepresenting. If GP Detroit repeats, then I'm hopping on board the "ban wagon". But if GP Brisbane repeats, then I'm just going to keep hoping for the Preordain unban.
Day 2 prevalence is also an important datapoint here, as are the undefeated decklists. We should expect, in all cases, that BGx will make up between 20-25% of those lists just because most people are playing the deck. So long as the deck is performing as expected, I'm not too worried. But if BGx gets over that share in any of those categories, that's overperformance, and that's a problem.
what type of deck(s) do you think unbanning preordain would help?
what type of deck(s) do you think unbanning preordain would help?
Storm, Delver, and some blue-based control deck. It's the safest unban I can think of on that list which wouldn't help BGx decks and wouldn't promote a deck that was too degenerate. It also helps Twin, but Twin has taken such a beating from BGx in recent weeks that it's probably okay if the deck gets more help.
despite twin supposedly taking a beating, tempo twin is everywhere online. i think its second most played to affinity in the last few dailies they've posted lists for.
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I think Living End is poised to be a contender if it can gather some numbers. Everyone thinks Ooze is such a crippler to the deck, well we can main board Shriekmaw without losing much against other decks in the format. As soon as some sort of graveyard hate gets printed people cry that the sky is falling for LE, but rest assured, we have one of the best utility reserve of any deck. I've said it in the Living End forum and I'll say it here, You can take a 75 card Living End list and tune it to almost any meta. Just switching out your main board utility cards for the utility you have in the side board can be enough to tune for any given meta. Beast Within is still a card, a card which can handle most anything that hoses the deck. It's one of the few decks that has a good game 1 MU againsty Affinity, and GBx. I think I have roughly 3 spots in my main that can be switched out. I think going 1Ingot Chewer and 2Shriekmaw would give you a nice MD plan against the decks you think are going to be the most played at the tourney.
Or I could be dead wrong...don't you just love magic?
There's no denying that Living End can "get there". People don't play it much because it's hard as hell for people to play it well.
That's why I finally broke down and bought it on MTGO. You get to play against competitive decks, and open your brain up to different lines of play. I plan on taking it to Virgina next year, as long as things with my job allow me to do so, and hope by then I will have seen as many MUs and lines of play as possible. You can do some stupidly broken things with it. It is by far the best LD deck in the format, and since people are trying to set up for the win on turn 3, it's LD can act as pseudo ramp. I'm saying all this with an obvious bias, so I shouldn't be taken too seriously, but I guess what I'm getting at is I hope to see someone out there good enough with the deck to do some damage.
DRS is easy to play around...Ooze is harder, but main deck Shriekmaw can take care of that. Thinking those can stop your deck means you don't know how to play around it. Cascade is only one way to play the deck...DRS and Ooze are difficult, but not nails in the coffin.
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Modern
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hating on Jund.
well i dont hate jund, i just hate the price:p
UBRGrixis ControlUBR | URPhoenixUR | UWMiraclesUW |GBRJundGBR | UBFaeriesUB | UBWAd NauseumUBW |GBRWBlueless ShadowGBRW |
MTGA
UBRGrixis ControlUBR | UTempoU
The red head is Ibuki Suika, an Oni from Japanese mythology, and she isn't from a anime, but a game series called "Touhou Project." My signature was inspired by Sixten's Lotus Cobra is Evil skit here with Suika resembling Primeval Titan.
And now something to do with MTG... URW could be a good contender this GP, but with a few more days to go it could be anything.
This cycle sounds eerily familiar to dredge in Legacy, and by eerily familiar I mean the exact same
That said Affinity is the most unfair tier 1 deck and I would hedge on it as well, they also get Blood Moon post board which auto wins them several Match-Ups
If we see anything with Devotion it is going to be either Fish with Thassa and Master Of Waves or Elves with Nykthos and maybe Nylea/Xenagos
All In Red is to slow for the field so a Devotion Red deck would not work and Mono Black is just to slow
We could see some Mono White Stax Devotion decks featuring RiP and Leylines as well as Suppression Fields, Leonin Arbiters, etc. The problem is these decks are inconsistent and weak to Decay
Paper: WUR Waffle Control, RG and U Tron
MTGO: U Tron, BRG Living End, B Infect
Testing Modern on MTGO and helping to craft decks on a Budget
I stream!
Hermit Druid Combo:
My bet is for traditional Jund, now armed with Xenagos and Anger of the Gods for additional card advantage.
Yeah I hope that more decks will be represented esp Naya Zoo.
If Jund didn't win or get into the top 8, I will be happy for once to see that other decks actually have a fighting chance other then fast combo's/aggro which prey on jund.
Modern : Huh?
EDH : UBGW Thrasios / Tymna Combo UBGW // GRW Mayael Big Stuff GRW // GU Edric Timewalkers GU
Damia http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=410191
DDFT Legacyhttp://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=505247
Domain Zoo http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=10212429#post10212429
As you said, it's a safe bet that BGx is going to make up a solid 20-25% of the GP metagame, and the deck is consistent enough that this share should translate to the top 8/16. So 4 BGx in the Top 16 and 2 BGx in the Top 8 would be expected, and even in the best case scenario I don't see that changing. The real issue for me is when those decks start overrepresenting. If GP Detroit repeats, then I'm hopping on board the "ban wagon". But if GP Brisbane repeats, then I'm just going to keep hoping for the Preordain unban.
Day 2 prevalence is also an important datapoint here, as are the undefeated decklists. We should expect, in all cases, that BGx will make up between 20-25% of those lists just because most people are playing the deck. So long as the deck is performing as expected, I'm not too worried. But if BGx gets over that share in any of those categories, that's overperformance, and that's a problem.
what type of deck(s) do you think unbanning preordain would help?
UBRGrixis ControlUBR | URPhoenixUR | UWMiraclesUW |GBRJundGBR | UBFaeriesUB | UBWAd NauseumUBW |GBRWBlueless ShadowGBRW |
MTGA
UBRGrixis ControlUBR | UTempoU
Storm, Delver, and some blue-based control deck. It's the safest unban I can think of on that list which wouldn't help BGx decks and wouldn't promote a deck that was too degenerate. It also helps Twin, but Twin has taken such a beating from BGx in recent weeks that it's probably okay if the deck gets more help.
It's time from Tr0n to make a good comeback to the limelight as well. It's been far too long.
Here's to hoping you do well. Top 16 would be good for the popularity of the deck!
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
Or I could be dead wrong...don't you just love magic?
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
That's why I finally broke down and bought it on MTGO. You get to play against competitive decks, and open your brain up to different lines of play. I plan on taking it to Virgina next year, as long as things with my job allow me to do so, and hope by then I will have seen as many MUs and lines of play as possible. You can do some stupidly broken things with it. It is by far the best LD deck in the format, and since people are trying to set up for the win on turn 3, it's LD can act as pseudo ramp. I'm saying all this with an obvious bias, so I shouldn't be taken too seriously, but I guess what I'm getting at is I hope to see someone out there good enough with the deck to do some damage.
No, he obviously means Boreal Griffin :tongue:.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
DRS is easy to play around...Ooze is harder, but main deck Shriekmaw can take care of that. Thinking those can stop your deck means you don't know how to play around it. Cascade is only one way to play the deck...DRS and Ooze are difficult, but not nails in the coffin.