Hey there guys, welcome to the GP Richmond Thread. This thread is to be MTGSal's Official Modern Discussion Thread. Feel free to share what you see, your reactions, and you're predictions. Remember, people may be viewing this thread at work/on their phone, and cant watch the stream, so you filling in information is really helpful.
Top 8/16 Archtypes:
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Please remember to look at the OP FIRST before asking questions. It will save you a lot of time, and keep the thread from looking to spammy.
Round 1 Domain Zoo vs Pod
Round 2
Tempo twin Vs G/w aggro
Round 3 Melira Pod Vs Melria Pod
Round 4 Big Zoo vs G/B Rock U/W Tron vs Splinter Twin
Round 5 Storm vs Jund Tarmo Twin vs W/U Tron Melira Pod Vs. Rock
Round 6 Rock Vs Melira Pod
U/R Delver vs Splinter Twin
Round 7
Storm vs Melira Pod
Melira Pod vs Ad Nauseam Melira Pod vs Boogles
Round 8 Scapeshift vs Affinity
8 Rack vs Melira Pod
Round 9
Blue Moon vs Tarmo Twin
Round 10 Storm vs Melira Pod
Round 11 W/U Control vs Tarmotwin
Round 12
Rock vs Merfolk Scapeshift vs Kiki Pod
Round 13
Merfolk Vs Scapeshift Twin vs Storm
Round 14 Affinity vs Ad Nauseam
Melira Pod vs. Melira Pod
Thread is now open to start discussing the upcoming GP! With 2200+ player preregistered, this is already the largest constructed event in history, so let's keep the hype and energy coming!
Well if the CFB 5K event is any indication of what to expect, people will need to be packing some sort of Living End hate. Took two slots of the T8 in that event.
Thread is now open to start discussing the upcoming GP! With 2200+ player preregistered, this is already the largest constructed event in history, so let's keep the hype and energy coming!
Thread is now open to start discussing the upcoming GP! With 2200+ player preregistered, this is already the largest constructed event in history, so let's keep the hype and energy coming!
Have there been larger Limited events?
The Modern Masters GP (Las Vegas) had a whopping 4500 people. It actually would've had even more, but they had to cap attendance at 4500 because they didn't have the judge staff to handle more. Who knows how big it would've gotten if not for that.
Any chance that attendance will have to be capped?
Not that I have heard. SCG learned its lesson in Vegas I believe. SCG is promising some pretty extensive side events, it seems they should have a good amount of room.
Insane number of preregs, I'm so stoked. Modern is my favorite format and it has really taken off at my local store, but apparantly that isn't a common thing.
The fact that the largest constructed GP will be modern makes me beyond happy.
OK, this discussion has come up on twitter, but what did the MATH say was the estimate attendance for the GP?
ktkenshinx, mind figuring that out please. I know a few people would be interested just how far above the curve this is compared to what should have been expected.
OK, this discussion has come up on twitter, but what did the MATH say was the estimate attendance for the GP?
ktkenshinx, mind figuring that out please. I know a few people would be interested just how far above the curve this is compared to what should have been expected.
I'll need to double check the numbers but the actual math predicted a tournament in the mid 1000s. I'm heading out the door soon so I'll do a closer check later, but based on the local PTQ in the area, accounting for the normal growth of the game, and adding in a bit more to account for a "hyped" GP, the estimate was still probably no more than 1500.
The timing for GP Richmond couldn't have been better for me and I'm excited to be playing in my first GP.
As of right now I feel the biggest decks will be Twin variants, Affinity, Living End, Melira Pod, RWU Control, and Zoo. Not really sure of the numbers but Twin and Living End are going to be pretty popular based off of their most recent tournament results.
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They have been putting update articles in the free section of star city games website, the are doing daily articles around noon that update the attendance numbers.
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They have been putting update articles in the free section of star city games website, the are doing daily articles around noon that update the attendance numbers.
Also hashtag #GPRichmond on twitter has had people discussing the latest attendance figures for the last couple days. It really is crazy.
I think people will give a nod to Living End in there SB, but I doubt there will be many, people expecting it might make the deck worse by a lot.
I'm expecting to see Rest in Peace as the default GY hate, which would give some nice sideboard coverage against Living End, Storm, Melira Pod, and any other fringe graveyard decks in contention. Some decks will still be running Relic and Cage, especially those that are using GY-based strategies of their own that they don't want to interfere with (e.g. Snapcaster), but RIP seems like the best choice going in.
Back to the attendance question:
TLDR: The Grand Prix is way over the expected attendance rate as calculated from previous events.
GP Richmond expected attendance lower end (w/ Modern margin of error): 1015
GP Richmond expected attendance upper end (w/ Modern margin of error): 1910
In the past, I accurately estimated attendance for a number of GPs using a rough model. Stated simply, you could guess GP attendance as roughly 5 times more players than the local PTQ had in attendance. This 5x model worked for the early part of 2013 but started to underestimate event attendance from GP Detroit onwards, because it wasn't accounting for natural game and format growth on top of other factors. So the first correction I made was increase the multiplier from 5 to 6, which more accurately predicted attendance.
To use the model, we need a base PTQ. I used PTQ Philadelphia from 2013 as the base event. Philly is close enough to Richmond that it is a fairly safe assumption that anyone who would come to Philly would probably also come to Richmond; if anything, Philly would overestimate Richmond attendance because NYC players would be more likely to make the trip to Philly than to Virginia. With 196 players, Philly was a big PTQ, and it was especially big in the context of the 2013 PTQ season. So just using the old model, we would expect GP Richmond to have somewhere between 980 players (the 5x model) and 1176 players (the 6x model).
Here's the issue: This 6x model doesn't account for either growth in MTG as a whole, or the accelerated pace of Modern growth in 2013; GP Detroit was way, way bigger than its local PTQ predicted, and that's partially because the game and format are growing a lot more now than they were a year ago.
How do we account for all that added game growth? Looking at the change in Modern attendance between 2012 and 2013, we can make a rough prediction about the change from 2013 to 2014. In the first period, it was about a 30% increase in average attendance from 2012 to 2013 PTQs. So one assumption is that this trend would hold. But even this might still underestimate event attendance, because an argument could be made that there was more format growth over 2013 than over 2012 (better coverage, Modern Masters, more support, etc.). So I looked at the events this year and calculated a possible 10 % point growth on top of the 30% expected growth, for a possible 40% growth during the 2013-2014 period.
This gives us a lower and upper range of expected attendance for GP Richmond. The first is based on the conservative 5x/30% growth model, and the second is based on the more generous 6x/40% growth model.
GP Richmond expected attendance lower end: ~1275 (196 x 5 x 1.3)
GP Richmond expected attendance upper end: ~1650 (196 x 6 x 1.4)
Finally, as with all estimates, we need a margin of error. Calculated from a regression of events, that ME is roughly 125. Admittedly, this figure was calculated from EXTENDED events, not Modern ones, because the sample size is so much larger. So it might not be entirely applicable to Modern, but it gives us an idea. If we were to use a Modern margin of error, it would be much larger at around 265. That makes sense given the higher volatility of Modern attendance, but the event sample size is a bit small for Grand Prix datapoints.
Figuring in BOTH margins of error, here were the expected attendance ranges.
GP Richmond expected attendance lower end (w/ Extended margin of error): 1150
GP Richmond expected attendance upper end (w/ Extended margin of error): 1775
GP Richmond expected attendance lower end (w/ Modern margin of error): 1015
GP Richmond expected attendance upper end (w/ Modern margin of error): 1910
SCG reported 2500+ players yesterday and I am sure that number is at least 2600+ by today. So, at least by my analysis, GP Richmond is overperforming expectations by multiple standard deviations.
What do you think caused these wild attendance numbers (2900 and climbing)? Is it the natural growth of Modern? Regional or seasonal interest? Heavy advertisement and involvement from StarCity Games? Printing of Modern Masters (personally loved the set)? Or the perfect storm of all of those things?
What do you think caused these wild attendance numbers (2900 and climbing)? Is it the natural growth of Modern? Regional or seasonal interest? Heavy advertisement and involvement from StarCity Games? Printing of Modern Masters (personally loved the set)? Or the perfect storm of all of those things?
So that's the issue with the prediction I posted above; it shows that GP Richmond has way more people than expected, but doesn't give a lot of explanation.
I think you are totally right when suggesting that it's the "perfect storm" of all those things. On top of those you mentioned, I want to emphasize the probably impact of coverage. Wizards has really increase both the quality and quantity of Modern coverage in the last 6 or so months, which has undoubtedly made the format more popular. I don't think that coverage is necessarily any more or less important than any of those reasons, so I just want to add it to the mix.
SCG is capping attendance at 5000 people (not sure if it will get that high though...) They are also handling the much higher then expected attendance very well...
It is definitely going to be an awesome event!
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Check out our podcast exploring the casually-competitive side of Magic! Extra Turns Podcast
SCG is capping attendance at 5000 people (not sure if it will get that high though...) They are also handling the much higher then expected attendance very well...
It is definitely going to be an awesome event!
Also, you have to be reg'ed for the main event to get a chance to play in the side events.
What do you think caused these wild attendance numbers (2900 and climbing)? Is it the natural growth of Modern? Regional or seasonal interest? Heavy advertisement and involvement from StarCity Games? Printing of Modern Masters (personally loved the set)? Or the perfect storm of all of those things?
So that's the issue with the prediction I posted above; it shows that GP Richmond has way more people than expected, but doesn't give a lot of explanation.
I think you are totally right when suggesting that it's the "perfect storm" of all those things. On top of those you mentioned, I want to emphasize the probably impact of coverage. Wizards has really increase both the quality and quantity of Modern coverage in the last 6 or so months, which has undoubtedly made the format more popular. I don't think that coverage is necessarily any more or less important than any of those reasons, so I just want to add it to the mix.
^^agreed....I'm just hoping Wizards is STARTING to get the picture in focus with Modern>>>>>>time to up the number of events on the schedules....I'd love to see 1/3 of the GP's Modern!
What do you think caused these wild attendance numbers (2900 and climbing)? Is it the natural growth of Modern? Regional or seasonal interest? Heavy advertisement and involvement from StarCity Games? Printing of Modern Masters (personally loved the set)? Or the perfect storm of all of those things?
I'd attribute it to the staleness of standard recently, the Pro Tour, and the right time of year.
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Hey there guys, welcome to the GP Richmond Thread. This thread is to be MTGSal's Official Modern Discussion Thread. Feel free to share what you see, your reactions, and you're predictions. Remember, people may be viewing this thread at work/on their phone, and cant watch the stream, so you filling in information is really helpful.
Top 8/16 Archtypes:
N/A
Please remember to look at the OP FIRST before asking questions. It will save you a lot of time, and keep the thread from looking to spammy.
Round 1
Domain Zoo vs Pod
Round 2
Tempo twin Vs G/w aggro
Round 3
Melira Pod Vs Melria Pod
Round 4
Big Zoo vs G/B Rock
U/W Tron vs Splinter Twin
Round 5
Storm vs Jund
Tarmo Twin vs W/U Tron
Melira Pod Vs. Rock
Round 6
Rock Vs Melira Pod
U/R Delver vs Splinter Twin
Round 7
Storm vs Melira Pod
Melira Pod vs Ad Nauseam
Melira Pod vs Boogles
Round 8
Scapeshift vs Affinity
8 Rack vs Melira Pod
Round 9
Blue Moon vs Tarmo Twin
Round 10
Storm vs Melira Pod
Round 11
W/U Control vs Tarmotwin
Round 12
Rock vs Merfolk
Scapeshift vs Kiki Pod
Round 13
Merfolk Vs Scapeshift
Twin vs Storm
Round 14
Affinity vs Ad Nauseam
Melira Pod vs. Melira Pod
Round 15
Affinity vs Splinter Twin
Come join us in the MTGSalvation chat ||| My trade thread. ||| My Personal Modern Blog: The Fetchlands
Have there been larger Limited events?
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
Looks like my 3000+ prediction is quite possible.
Any chance that attendance will have to be capped?
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
Not that I have heard. SCG learned its lesson in Vegas I believe. SCG is promising some pretty extensive side events, it seems they should have a good amount of room.
The fact that the largest constructed GP will be modern makes me beyond happy.
ktkenshinx, mind figuring that out please. I know a few people would be interested just how far above the curve this is compared to what should have been expected.
Come join us in the MTGSalvation chat ||| My trade thread. ||| My Personal Modern Blog: The Fetchlands
I'll need to double check the numbers but the actual math predicted a tournament in the mid 1000s. I'm heading out the door soon so I'll do a closer check later, but based on the local PTQ in the area, accounting for the normal growth of the game, and adding in a bit more to account for a "hyped" GP, the estimate was still probably no more than 1500.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
As of right now I feel the biggest decks will be Twin variants, Affinity, Living End, Melira Pod, RWU Control, and Zoo. Not really sure of the numbers but Twin and Living End are going to be pretty popular based off of their most recent tournament results.
-Anonymous
They have been putting update articles in the free section of star city games website, the are doing daily articles around noon that update the attendance numbers.
Also hashtag #GPRichmond on twitter has had people discussing the latest attendance figures for the last couple days. It really is crazy.
I'm expecting to see Rest in Peace as the default GY hate, which would give some nice sideboard coverage against Living End, Storm, Melira Pod, and any other fringe graveyard decks in contention. Some decks will still be running Relic and Cage, especially those that are using GY-based strategies of their own that they don't want to interfere with (e.g. Snapcaster), but RIP seems like the best choice going in.
Back to the attendance question:
TLDR: The Grand Prix is way over the expected attendance rate as calculated from previous events.
GP Richmond expected attendance lower end (w/ Modern margin of error): 1015
GP Richmond expected attendance upper end (w/ Modern margin of error): 1910
In the past, I accurately estimated attendance for a number of GPs using a rough model. Stated simply, you could guess GP attendance as roughly 5 times more players than the local PTQ had in attendance. This 5x model worked for the early part of 2013 but started to underestimate event attendance from GP Detroit onwards, because it wasn't accounting for natural game and format growth on top of other factors. So the first correction I made was increase the multiplier from 5 to 6, which more accurately predicted attendance.
To use the model, we need a base PTQ. I used PTQ Philadelphia from 2013 as the base event. Philly is close enough to Richmond that it is a fairly safe assumption that anyone who would come to Philly would probably also come to Richmond; if anything, Philly would overestimate Richmond attendance because NYC players would be more likely to make the trip to Philly than to Virginia. With 196 players, Philly was a big PTQ, and it was especially big in the context of the 2013 PTQ season. So just using the old model, we would expect GP Richmond to have somewhere between 980 players (the 5x model) and 1176 players (the 6x model).
Here's the issue: This 6x model doesn't account for either growth in MTG as a whole, or the accelerated pace of Modern growth in 2013; GP Detroit was way, way bigger than its local PTQ predicted, and that's partially because the game and format are growing a lot more now than they were a year ago.
How do we account for all that added game growth? Looking at the change in Modern attendance between 2012 and 2013, we can make a rough prediction about the change from 2013 to 2014. In the first period, it was about a 30% increase in average attendance from 2012 to 2013 PTQs. So one assumption is that this trend would hold. But even this might still underestimate event attendance, because an argument could be made that there was more format growth over 2013 than over 2012 (better coverage, Modern Masters, more support, etc.). So I looked at the events this year and calculated a possible 10 % point growth on top of the 30% expected growth, for a possible 40% growth during the 2013-2014 period.
This gives us a lower and upper range of expected attendance for GP Richmond. The first is based on the conservative 5x/30% growth model, and the second is based on the more generous 6x/40% growth model.
GP Richmond expected attendance lower end: ~1275 (196 x 5 x 1.3)
GP Richmond expected attendance upper end: ~1650 (196 x 6 x 1.4)
Finally, as with all estimates, we need a margin of error. Calculated from a regression of events, that ME is roughly 125. Admittedly, this figure was calculated from EXTENDED events, not Modern ones, because the sample size is so much larger. So it might not be entirely applicable to Modern, but it gives us an idea. If we were to use a Modern margin of error, it would be much larger at around 265. That makes sense given the higher volatility of Modern attendance, but the event sample size is a bit small for Grand Prix datapoints.
Figuring in BOTH margins of error, here were the expected attendance ranges.
GP Richmond expected attendance lower end (w/ Extended margin of error): 1150
GP Richmond expected attendance upper end (w/ Extended margin of error): 1775
GP Richmond expected attendance lower end (w/ Modern margin of error): 1015
GP Richmond expected attendance upper end (w/ Modern margin of error): 1910
SCG reported 2500+ players yesterday and I am sure that number is at least 2600+ by today. So, at least by my analysis, GP Richmond is overperforming expectations by multiple standard deviations.
So that's the issue with the prediction I posted above; it shows that GP Richmond has way more people than expected, but doesn't give a lot of explanation.
I think you are totally right when suggesting that it's the "perfect storm" of all those things. On top of those you mentioned, I want to emphasize the probably impact of coverage. Wizards has really increase both the quality and quantity of Modern coverage in the last 6 or so months, which has undoubtedly made the format more popular. I don't think that coverage is necessarily any more or less important than any of those reasons, so I just want to add it to the mix.
It is definitely going to be an awesome event!
Also, you have to be reg'ed for the main event to get a chance to play in the side events.
^^agreed....I'm just hoping Wizards is STARTING to get the picture in focus with Modern>>>>>>time to up the number of events on the schedules....I'd love to see 1/3 of the GP's Modern!
I'd attribute it to the staleness of standard recently, the Pro Tour, and the right time of year.
just hit 3400...at this rate they will absolutely hit the 5000 cap...