Just felt I had to ask here since I've been tracking this the last few days, but who is buying all the standard showdown promo forests from Alayna Daenor? I've literally watched the TCG Cart empty at rapid pace on those particular promo foil prints. Last time it was the Rebecca Guay lands. The shooting star lands from the gift boxes are moving, but their are so many of them that the price is basically going no where fast. It's like the stores just keep refilling at the same rate they are selling.
Also, looks like sellers have cut the buylists for shocklands and more shocks have been put up on the market to the surprise of no one. I'm expecting the shocklands to be sub 5 dollars by the time all the dust settles by mid October.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
That seems really low. They were what, about $15 last week? Standard demand should prop the price up a bit, after all. I think the immediate result is what you've described. No buylist, and no sitting on copies. But those 2 things couldn't possibly have kept the price propped up by 300%?
So LotV seems to be at the floor for MTGO. I'm thinking of pulling the trigger. Maybe now before previews really get rolling? 1 or 2 good Jund/Lili type cards could push her up maybe?
Also, looks like sellers have cut the buylists for shocklands and more shocks have been put up on the market to the surprise of no one. I'm expecting the shocklands to be sub 5 dollars by the time all the dust settles by mid October.
Really feeling thankful that I did not hoard shocklands. o_____o
Can finally afford to have sacred foundries for a casual modern deck. ^____^
So LotV seems to be at the floor for MTGO. I'm thinking of pulling the trigger. Maybe now before previews really get rolling? 1 or 2 good Jund/Lili type cards could push her up maybe?
if you think there is a decent chance jund could get something to push it up the standings, then yeah it might be a good time to grab a set. that and if you expect to play them at all, which is a less tangible return on investment but still something.
also unless a major reprint comes along, its not like lotv is going to bottom out quickly. so if your spec turns out wrong you can flip them without losing much time or tix. its one of the benefits of mtgo after all.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
So LotV seems to be at the floor for MTGO. I'm thinking of pulling the trigger. Maybe now before previews really get rolling? 1 or 2 good Jund/Lili type cards could push her up maybe?
if you think there is a decent chance jund could get something to push it up the standings, then yeah it might be a good time to grab a set. that and if you expect to play them at all, which is a less tangible return on investment but still something.
also unless a major reprint comes along, its not like lotv is going to bottom out quickly. so if your spec turns out wrong you can flip them without losing much time or tix. its one of the benefits of mtgo after all.
Last Ravnica block gave us Abrupt Decay and Deathrite Shaman. I'd say there's a good chance, especially if they're serious about printing stronger answer cards.
That seems really low. They were what, about $15 last week? Standard demand should prop the price up a bit, after all. I think the immediate result is what you've described. No buylist, and no sitting on copies. But those 2 things couldn't possibly have kept the price propped up by 300%?
If you want a historic example, see Tarmogoyf. His price decline even when Jund was still around was noteworthy as each subsequent printing took the price down further and further. That was with a limited release set priced at 240 msrp. Shocklands may have more demand, but this is not just a supplementary reprinting of the card: this is the third time it is entering standard. On top of which, there are a ton of RTR boxes still floating around that are unopened as well.
The main problem that may shoot my prediction in the foot is that word is going around WoTC might be having some distribution issues with the removal of the wizards direct store, so it is entirely possible the floodgates wont be opened until a month past release at the earliest. If that is the case then I'd expect the lands to be above 5 dollars for a while until the restocks hit later. Still, this is a very unique situation. As far as I recall, there hasn't been land printed in a fall or spring standard set twice since the dawn of the print to demand era. I'm very curious to see what happens to something like a shock land when it gets opened to the point that there are physically more copies of it on the open market than Sunpetal Grove.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I'm looking to play them so I just went ahead and pulled the trigger.
They dropped 4 cents sitting in my cart. Sigh....
Make sure they are in your cart and you are purchasing from a reputable dealer. Then just monitor spoiler season. If there aren't any strong cards to push BGx or Mardu in the set, then just keep sitting on the Lilis and they will keep dropping. But if you see some new card that is likely to improve the Modern or Legacy decks that run her, just buy them right on the spot. I've used this method in the past and it's largely successful.
The main problem that may shoot my prediction in the foot is that word is going around WoTC might be having some distribution issues with the removal of the wizards direct store, so it is entirely possible the floodgates wont be opened until a month past release at the earliest. If that is the case then I'd expect the lands to be above 5 dollars for a while until the restocks hit later. Still, this is a very unique situation. As far as I recall, there hasn't been land printed in a fall or spring standard set twice since the dawn of the print to demand era. I'm very curious to see what happens to something like a shock land when it gets opened to the point that there are physically more copies of it on the open market than Sunpetal Grove.
I agree this seems unique. 3 Standard print runs. That's got to be a LOT of cards. Distribution problems aside, I think it's useful to think about the price a couple weeks after the set drops and then once it rotates out of standard. If Shocks hit $5 with Standard demand 2 weeks in, then where do they settle 2 weeks after rotation?
I'm looking to play them so I just went ahead and pulled the trigger.
They dropped 4 cents sitting in my cart. Sigh....
Make sure they are in your cart and you are purchasing from a reputable dealer. Then just monitor spoiler season. If there aren't any strong cards to push BGx or Mardu in the set, then just keep sitting on the Lilis and they will keep dropping. But if you see some new card that is likely to improve the Modern or Legacy decks that run her, just buy them right on the spot. I've used this method in the past and it's largely successful.
Yeah, I just bought them now so I don't need to do all that. All the good buys I've made have been during periods where I was watching prices daily. It just seemed exhausting this time. I want to play them and it will be another month or two till I have the entire deck. How much can she possibly go down over 2 months vs the risk of going up over the same time?
The main problem that may shoot my prediction in the foot is that word is going around WoTC might be having some distribution issues with the removal of the wizards direct store, so it is entirely possible the floodgates wont be opened until a month past release at the earliest. If that is the case then I'd expect the lands to be above 5 dollars for a while until the restocks hit later. Still, this is a very unique situation. As far as I recall, there hasn't been land printed in a fall or spring standard set twice since the dawn of the print to demand era. I'm very curious to see what happens to something like a shock land when it gets opened to the point that there are physically more copies of it on the open market than Sunpetal Grove.
I agree this seems unique. 3 Standard print runs. That's got to be a LOT of cards. Distribution problems aside, I think it's useful to think about the price a couple weeks after the set drops and then once it rotates out of standard. If Shocks hit $5 with Standard demand 2 weeks in, then where do they settle 2 weeks after rotation?
Oh, I think we both know the answer to that one. I'd say the safer bet is that the lands will be between 5-10 dollars while they are in standard, possibly climb once the next set is released and as the set ages, and then everyone dumps the entire cycle onto the market on rotation.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Can we talk about Gilt-Leaf Palace? Something is dramatically weird. It's a one printing, but very very specific card that only sees competitive play in one specific Modern deck, yet since Dominaria set release the price has Tripled. I own my very nice NM playset of the card, and I don't see a reprint happening in the near future, but multiple people in my community have expressed how difficult it is to find for upgrading their Modern deck.
What's the best suggestion here? Are we going to find this card hitting 50$? Will it become the new Blackcleave Cliffs?
damn, those really did get expensive. it was like 5 bucks when i picked up a few copies years ago.
even with such a low supply i cant see them getting to blackcleave levels. the card is tied exclusively to how well modern elves is doing, which had a local peak in popularity a few months back thanks to its great matchup against humans. it was showing up more frequently in event standings, and the GB version of the deck is/was relatively cheap compared to the GW or abzan version which has to shell out for horizon canopy and possibly a few green fetches/shocks. less if you substituted caverns.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
Seems like a speculation buy out. With Convoke coming back as a mechanic someone is betting elves will become good enough to be tier one. If it pans out the card might hit 40-50, but if it doesn't it will sink back to 10 ish I imagine.
Seems like a speculation buy out. With Convoke coming back as a mechanic someone is betting elves will become good enough to be tier one. If it pans out the card might hit 40-50, but if it doesn't it will sink back to 10 ish I imagine.
Don't forget they printed an elf lord at two mana that can tutor additional copies of itself. Seems like that'd be silly if there wouldn't be enough elves to support a standard archetype, since no such thing was present in M19 draft. If we want to go full tinfoil hat, I wonder if large vendors know something we don't. It would not be the first time a buyout indicated somebody somewhere knew about a new card unknown to the greater public.
damn, those really did get expensive. it was like 5 bucks when i picked up a few copies years ago.
even with such a low supply i cant see them getting to blackcleave levels. the card is tied exclusively to how well modern elves is doing, which had a local peak in popularity a few months back thanks to its great matchup against humans. it was showing up more frequently in event standings, and the GB version of the deck is/was relatively cheap compared to the GW or abzan version which has to shell out for horizon canopy and possibly a few green fetches/shocks. less if you substituted caverns.
People forget how long ago it was these were printed. They are rarer than black cleave cliffs due to being printed during the recession and elves is a popular deck regardless of competitive play. It's not going down without a reprint. Same for the goblin specific land as well.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
damn, those really did get expensive. it was like 5 bucks when i picked up a few copies years ago.
even with such a low supply i cant see them getting to blackcleave levels. the card is tied exclusively to how well modern elves is doing, which had a local peak in popularity a few months back thanks to its great matchup against humans. it was showing up more frequently in event standings, and the GB version of the deck is/was relatively cheap compared to the GW or abzan version which has to shell out for horizon canopy and possibly a few green fetches/shocks. less if you substituted caverns.
People forget how long ago it was these were printed. They are rarer than black cleave cliffs due to being printed during the recession and elves is a popular deck regardless of competitive play. It's not going down without a reprint. Same for the goblin specific land as well.
yeah the supply is a factor, which is why i dont see the price dropping. however if Shmanka is correct about the price tripling in a short time that indicates something outside of regular demand.
the land isnt even particularly necessary to run GBx elves and can be more easily swapped. it isnt like cavern or horizon canopy that offer some unique effect. the price will eventually meet some threshold where buyers wont be willing to shell out for something relatively low impact, and due to various factors id posit that soft-cap is lower than blackcleave cliffs.
i have no doubt that vendors know stuff we dont, or at least are in a better position to predict stuff. going deep on gilt-leafs seem like a stretch though.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
damn, those really did get expensive. it was like 5 bucks when i picked up a few copies years ago.
even with such a low supply i cant see them getting to blackcleave levels. the card is tied exclusively to how well modern elves is doing, which had a local peak in popularity a few months back thanks to its great matchup against humans. it was showing up more frequently in event standings, and the GB version of the deck is/was relatively cheap compared to the GW or abzan version which has to shell out for horizon canopy and possibly a few green fetches/shocks. less if you substituted caverns.
People forget how long ago it was these were printed. They are rarer than black cleave cliffs due to being printed during the recession and elves is a popular deck regardless of competitive play. It's not going down without a reprint. Same for the goblin specific land as well.
yeah the supply is a factor, which is why i dont see the price dropping. however if Shmanka is correct about the price tripling in a short time that indicates something outside of regular demand.
the land isnt even particularly necessary to run GBx elves and can be more easily swapped. it isnt like cavern or horizon canopy that offer some unique effect. the price will eventually meet some threshold where buyers wont be willing to shell out for something relatively low impact, and due to various factors id posit that soft-cap is lower than blackcleave cliffs.
i have no doubt that vendors know stuff we dont, or at least are in a better position to predict stuff. going deep on gilt-leafs seem like a stretch though.
It might be a buyout to see if the higher price sticks. Painless sources of mana that come into play untapped are rare and pose a unique advantage over other lands. That and with control becoming stronger and wizards being a thing with burn, taking damage from shocks for better tempo can be a handicap. Unless someone's deck is super fast there is not a lot of reason to not take advantage of scry and cycle lands. Humans runs horizon canopy for this reason.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
FYI, for those interested in this kind of information, the price to stores for booster boxes appears to have increased from 78 dollars a box to 80 dollars a box wholesale. I'm not sure what this means for singles prices, but it's interesting to note that it looks like a 5% increase. Got this information from some of my patreon channels.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
If you want a historic example, see Tarmogoyf. His price decline even when Jund was still around was noteworthy as each subsequent printing took the price down further and further. That was with a limited release set priced at 240 msrp. Shocklands may have more demand, but this is not just a supplementary reprinting of the card: this is the third time it is entering standard. On top of which, there are a ton of RTR boxes still floating around that are unopened as well.
Goyf is even on sale right now at SCG.
Although I have a feeling his price will rise again if the newly spoiled Assasin's Trophy gives BGx decks more success in Modern.
Assassin's Trophy on SCG & TCG for $29.99. Currently the highest preorder card, I think. Any guesses where it settles?
It's a rare, what was the last rare that commanded that high of a price tag? I'd say maybe 10ish USD, unless GB becomes a standard powerhouse then I can see 20 USD for a little bit. This is better than contempt by a long shot, even if this is deck specific. Contempt had no issue peaking 15 as a great removal spell in the format - even though it is easier to cast in any and deck.
Locally produced ices may vary because people are going to be aggressively buying these up for pptqs and such. Card is legit great, but the supply should be there. On the right side, we already have 6 very great rares to open in the set (shocks and now this). Which means the other stuff in the set could be very affordable.
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Also, looks like sellers have cut the buylists for shocklands and more shocks have been put up on the market to the surprise of no one. I'm expecting the shocklands to be sub 5 dollars by the time all the dust settles by mid October.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Really feeling thankful that I did not hoard shocklands. o_____o
Can finally afford to have sacred foundries for a casual modern deck. ^____^
Nexus MTG News // Nexus - Magic Art Gallery // MTG Dual Land Color Ratios Analyzer // MTG Card Drawing Odds Calculator
Want to play a UW control deck in modern, but don't have jace or snaps?
Please come visit us at the Emeria Titan control thread
if you think there is a decent chance jund could get something to push it up the standings, then yeah it might be a good time to grab a set. that and if you expect to play them at all, which is a less tangible return on investment but still something.
also unless a major reprint comes along, its not like lotv is going to bottom out quickly. so if your spec turns out wrong you can flip them without losing much time or tix. its one of the benefits of mtgo after all.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
They dropped 4 cents sitting in my cart. Sigh....
If you want a historic example, see Tarmogoyf. His price decline even when Jund was still around was noteworthy as each subsequent printing took the price down further and further. That was with a limited release set priced at 240 msrp. Shocklands may have more demand, but this is not just a supplementary reprinting of the card: this is the third time it is entering standard. On top of which, there are a ton of RTR boxes still floating around that are unopened as well.
The main problem that may shoot my prediction in the foot is that word is going around WoTC might be having some distribution issues with the removal of the wizards direct store, so it is entirely possible the floodgates wont be opened until a month past release at the earliest. If that is the case then I'd expect the lands to be above 5 dollars for a while until the restocks hit later. Still, this is a very unique situation. As far as I recall, there hasn't been land printed in a fall or spring standard set twice since the dawn of the print to demand era. I'm very curious to see what happens to something like a shock land when it gets opened to the point that there are physically more copies of it on the open market than Sunpetal Grove.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Make sure they are in your cart and you are purchasing from a reputable dealer. Then just monitor spoiler season. If there aren't any strong cards to push BGx or Mardu in the set, then just keep sitting on the Lilis and they will keep dropping. But if you see some new card that is likely to improve the Modern or Legacy decks that run her, just buy them right on the spot. I've used this method in the past and it's largely successful.
I'm not sure that's a reasonable comparison.
I agree this seems unique. 3 Standard print runs. That's got to be a LOT of cards. Distribution problems aside, I think it's useful to think about the price a couple weeks after the set drops and then once it rotates out of standard. If Shocks hit $5 with Standard demand 2 weeks in, then where do they settle 2 weeks after rotation?
Yeah, I just bought them now so I don't need to do all that. All the good buys I've made have been during periods where I was watching prices daily. It just seemed exhausting this time. I want to play them and it will be another month or two till I have the entire deck. How much can she possibly go down over 2 months vs the risk of going up over the same time?
Oh, I think we both know the answer to that one. I'd say the safer bet is that the lands will be between 5-10 dollars while they are in standard, possibly climb once the next set is released and as the set ages, and then everyone dumps the entire cycle onto the market on rotation.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Modern Tallowisp Spirits - A Modern Tallowisp Deck UW
Eldrazi Ninjas - Summoning Octopus Jutsu YYYYAAAHHHH!
STANDARD
Naban Wizards
Spirits
What's the best suggestion here? Are we going to find this card hitting 50$? Will it become the new Blackcleave Cliffs?
even with such a low supply i cant see them getting to blackcleave levels. the card is tied exclusively to how well modern elves is doing, which had a local peak in popularity a few months back thanks to its great matchup against humans. it was showing up more frequently in event standings, and the GB version of the deck is/was relatively cheap compared to the GW or abzan version which has to shell out for horizon canopy and possibly a few green fetches/shocks. less if you substituted caverns.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Don't forget they printed an elf lord at two mana that can tutor additional copies of itself. Seems like that'd be silly if there wouldn't be enough elves to support a standard archetype, since no such thing was present in M19 draft. If we want to go full tinfoil hat, I wonder if large vendors know something we don't. It would not be the first time a buyout indicated somebody somewhere knew about a new card unknown to the greater public.
People forget how long ago it was these were printed. They are rarer than black cleave cliffs due to being printed during the recession and elves is a popular deck regardless of competitive play. It's not going down without a reprint. Same for the goblin specific land as well.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
yeah the supply is a factor, which is why i dont see the price dropping. however if Shmanka is correct about the price tripling in a short time that indicates something outside of regular demand.
the land isnt even particularly necessary to run GBx elves and can be more easily swapped. it isnt like cavern or horizon canopy that offer some unique effect. the price will eventually meet some threshold where buyers wont be willing to shell out for something relatively low impact, and due to various factors id posit that soft-cap is lower than blackcleave cliffs.
i have no doubt that vendors know stuff we dont, or at least are in a better position to predict stuff. going deep on gilt-leafs seem like a stretch though.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)It might be a buyout to see if the higher price sticks. Painless sources of mana that come into play untapped are rare and pose a unique advantage over other lands. That and with control becoming stronger and wizards being a thing with burn, taking damage from shocks for better tempo can be a handicap. Unless someone's deck is super fast there is not a lot of reason to not take advantage of scry and cycle lands. Humans runs horizon canopy for this reason.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Goyf is even on sale right now at SCG.
Although I have a feeling his price will rise again if the newly spoiled Assasin's Trophy gives BGx decks more success in Modern.
Nexus MTG News // Nexus - Magic Art Gallery // MTG Dual Land Color Ratios Analyzer // MTG Card Drawing Odds Calculator
Want to play a UW control deck in modern, but don't have jace or snaps?
Please come visit us at the Emeria Titan control thread
"Reveal a Dragon"
It's a rare, what was the last rare that commanded that high of a price tag? I'd say maybe 10ish USD, unless GB becomes a standard powerhouse then I can see 20 USD for a little bit. This is better than contempt by a long shot, even if this is deck specific. Contempt had no issue peaking 15 as a great removal spell in the format - even though it is easier to cast in any and deck.
Locally produced ices may vary because people are going to be aggressively buying these up for pptqs and such. Card is legit great, but the supply should be there. On the right side, we already have 6 very great rares to open in the set (shocks and now this). Which means the other stuff in the set could be very affordable.