With PT FRF in the books, GP Van is the first major Modern event after the historic bannings of TC, DTT, and Pod. Given the conversations that have been coming up around Modern, the banlist, the metagame, etc., this is arguably one of the most important GPs in Modern's history; PT FRF and GP Van will be the two major Modern events that determine what happens on the pending March 23 ban announcement. The stakes will be high for the format and for its players as Modern fans from across the wold duke it out in Vancouver.
What do you expect to see at the event? How do you think the metagame will shape up? Who is going to take down the whole thing? What ramifications will the event have? Discuss all that, and more, in this thread!
I want to kick things off with some attendance figures. Attendance will be hugely important in this event as, historically, Wizards has used GP attendance as a sign of format health. Although there are many factors that complicate our understanding and interpretation of attendance, we still turn to the GP attendance as one sign of the event's and the format's success in that moment.
GP Van has a maximum event capacity of 1800 players. That alone is a pretty low cap which places GP Van's top attendance much lower than we have seen at other larger venues. We would at least hope to see the event filled this weekend.
As for relative attendances, both GP Toronto and GP Portland from previous years provide some attendance benchmarks. Toronto was the only other Modern GP in Canada, held in December 2012. It's unclear to what extent we can compare the events given that Toronto is about 2000 miles away from Vancouver, but if we were to compare the two, we would hope that Vancouver had at least as many players as we saw at Toronto: 1051. Portland is much closer to Vancouver at only a few hours, although the border crossing is certainly another factor that would limit this comparison. That GP, in May 2013, had 979 players.
We can also use North American attendance as a benchmark for GP Vancouver. Looking just at the population of North American GPs and all their different attendances, we can construct a resample to account for small sample size (N=11 for North American GPs) and find the expected range of attendance. GP Omaha had very low attendance, but we still include it in the historic GP Perspective. Here are expected attendance ranges for all North American GPs (N=11), and then another range for all 2014-2015 GPs (N=9) regardless of location. Note that these are 95% confidence intervals constructed from N=10000 resamples.
Attendance Range - North American GPS: 1055 - 2290 players Attendance Range - 2014/2015 GPs: 1880 - 2340 players
So if GP Van attendance were between 1055 - 2290, it would fall within the expected range of ALL Modern GPs. But it would need to be within 1880 - 2340 players to fall within the expected range for all 2014-2015 Modern GPs. Again, there are many limitations to an analysis like this that does not include weather, holidays, plane ticket prices, competing events, and a million other factors that can affect attendance. But it's a great place to start.
Finally, the preregistration for GP Van is at 525 at the last check (2/19 at around noon).
I'm going with the safe bet and saying there's going to be a decent showing of Abzan decks and a huge amount of aggro/linear decks led by Affinity, Infect, and Burn. Junk's showing will be considerably lower than PTFRF's but probably still be the top deck, and Twin will have a mediocre showing but put someone into the top eight anyway. Here's my prediction for that:
I'm also going to go out on a limb and say an Amulet Bloom deck is going to do something dumb on camera (e.g. turn two win) which will be pointed to as the reason for a banning in March. The top eight will have many new faces who happened to roll the right matchups, and playing first will be the most important contributor to winning all weekend.
WotC shows the same deck in about 75% of its coverage, making people think the deck is a bigger part of the meta than it actually is (actually stats will show it does not break 15%). The commentators make dumb calls, have no idea about simple interactions in highly popular decks and overhype things that dont deserve it. Oh and people scream for a ban on the key card in the deck that wins the tourney.
I wouldn't be surprised if there was very low attendance due to general disgruntlement over the recent banlist. I also wouldn't be surprised if it was capped at the 1800 maximum simply because that's a low number and GPs have been gaining traction the last year or so.
In terms of what decks we see, Abzan>Twin>Burn>Abzan. So we'll see those 3 and then 1 or 2 linear combo decks in the top 8. Nothing original, nothing exciting. I see Twin taking down the whole thing again since in a field of one fair deck (Abzan) and all linear "combo" decks (including burn and infect and affinity), Twin is the only deck that can operate on both axes.
2 twin
2 abzan
1 infect
1 burn
1 affinity
1 random - hoping for loam pox
I do not think bloom will do well this tourny now that more people know how it works. I'm really hoping for more balanced meta #'s between the decks, but if not then something will be banned.
Junk will be the most played but also the greatest loser at the tournament.
Breach will constantly win turn 3.
Twin, Breach or Burn will win the GP and it will be because of match-ups/hate.
Mardu Midrange and BW Tokens will be the breakthrough decks showing up at top 16 despite minimal meta %.
Toronto was the only other Modern GP in Canada, held in December 2012. It's unclear to what extent we can compare the events given that Toronto is about 2000 miles away from Vancouver, but if we were to compare the two, we would hope that Vancouver had at least as many players as we saw at Toronto: 1051.
talking about canadian cities here. Use appropriate (real) unit. Approximately 4373 kilometers between vancouver and toronto according to google map.
Toronto was the only other Modern GP in Canada, held in December 2012. It's unclear to what extent we can compare the events given that Toronto is about 2000 miles away from Vancouver, but if we were to compare the two, we would hope that Vancouver had at least as many players as we saw at Toronto: 1051.
talking about canadian cities here. Use appropriate (real) unit. Approximately 4373 kilometers between vancouver and toronto according to google map.
Pardon the ignorance of us silly Americans. We like to be different from the rest of the world.
Toronto was the only other Modern GP in Canada, held in December 2012. It's unclear to what extent we can compare the events given that Toronto is about 2000 miles away from Vancouver, but if we were to compare the two, we would hope that Vancouver had at least as many players as we saw at Toronto: 1051.
talking about canadian cities here. Use appropriate (real) unit. Approximately 4373 kilometers between vancouver and toronto according to google map.
Pardon the ignorance of us silly Americans. We like to be different from the rest of the world.
yeah lol. to americans reading my previous post, take it at the friendly ribbing it is lol
I'm going to say
1 Twin
2 Junk
2 Burn
1 Aggro strat (either Merfolk or Affinity)
1 Titan (which is likely to be more popular after the PT)
1 flex slot (hopefully something like Living End, more likely something like Tron or another copy of Junk/Twin).
Does anyone know who is hosting the coverage? I'm assuming it's Wizards' team.
Noooooo I'll be in Vancouver over that weekend for the exact opposite reasons of playing Magic! Anyways, I expect the meta to be pretty different from the PT. Expect at least another Amulet Bloom in the top 8, and a lot of Twin. Atleast 2 of it.
Noooooo I'll be in Vancouver over that weekend for the exact opposite reasons of playing Magic! Anyways, I expect the meta to be pretty different from the PT. Expect at least another Amulet Bloom in the top 8, and a lot of Twin. Atleast 2 of it.
what are the exact opposite reasons of playing magic? Are you running around the city burning magic cards and detaining nerds?
Noooooo I'll be in Vancouver over that weekend for the exact opposite reasons of playing Magic! Anyways, I expect the meta to be pretty different from the PT. Expect at least another Amulet Bloom in the top 8, and a lot of Twin. Atleast 2 of it.
what are the exact opposite reasons of playing magic? Are you running around the city burning magic cards and detaining nerds?
Noooooo I'll be in Vancouver over that weekend for the exact opposite reasons of playing Magic! Anyways, I expect the meta to be pretty different from the PT. Expect at least another Amulet Bloom in the top 8, and a lot of Twin. Atleast 2 of it.
what are the exact opposite reasons of playing magic? Are you running around the city burning magic cards and detaining nerds?
Oh SNAP.
Can't get much further from MTG, lol. I am lucky my wife likes to play.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern Decks: B/W Tokens, Living End, R/W Lockdown (a.k.a. PillowFort)
Working on:G/W Hatebears, Mono Blue Tron, U/R Delver
Quote from TheDasuri:
First they came for the ghosts of past standards like Jace the Mindsculptor and artifact lands
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a filthy spike
Then they came for the cantrips
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a filthy blue player
Then they came for the Bloodbraid Elves
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a filthy midrange player
Then they came for the Seething Song
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a filthy combo player
Then they came for me
And there was no one left
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February 20 - 22, 2015
Information: http://magic.wizards.com/en/content/fact-sheet-grand-prix-vancouver-2015
Coverage: http://magic.wizards.com/en/events/coverage/gpvan15
Twitter: #gpvan
Twitch coverage: http://www.twitch.tv/magic2
Streaming times
Saturday: Video starts 1:00 PM Pacific Time (Local Time) / 9:00 PM GMT
Sunday: Video starts 9:00 AM Pacific Time / 5:00 PM GMT
------------------------------------------------------------------
With PT FRF in the books, GP Van is the first major Modern event after the historic bannings of TC, DTT, and Pod. Given the conversations that have been coming up around Modern, the banlist, the metagame, etc., this is arguably one of the most important GPs in Modern's history; PT FRF and GP Van will be the two major Modern events that determine what happens on the pending March 23 ban announcement. The stakes will be high for the format and for its players as Modern fans from across the wold duke it out in Vancouver.
What do you expect to see at the event? How do you think the metagame will shape up? Who is going to take down the whole thing? What ramifications will the event have? Discuss all that, and more, in this thread!
GP Van has a maximum event capacity of 1800 players. That alone is a pretty low cap which places GP Van's top attendance much lower than we have seen at other larger venues. We would at least hope to see the event filled this weekend.
As for relative attendances, both GP Toronto and GP Portland from previous years provide some attendance benchmarks. Toronto was the only other Modern GP in Canada, held in December 2012. It's unclear to what extent we can compare the events given that Toronto is about 2000 miles away from Vancouver, but if we were to compare the two, we would hope that Vancouver had at least as many players as we saw at Toronto: 1051. Portland is much closer to Vancouver at only a few hours, although the border crossing is certainly another factor that would limit this comparison. That GP, in May 2013, had 979 players.
We can also use North American attendance as a benchmark for GP Vancouver. Looking just at the population of North American GPs and all their different attendances, we can construct a resample to account for small sample size (N=11 for North American GPs) and find the expected range of attendance. GP Omaha had very low attendance, but we still include it in the historic GP Perspective. Here are expected attendance ranges for all North American GPs (N=11), and then another range for all 2014-2015 GPs (N=9) regardless of location. Note that these are 95% confidence intervals constructed from N=10000 resamples.
Attendance Range - North American GPS: 1055 - 2290 players
Attendance Range - 2014/2015 GPs: 1880 - 2340 players
So if GP Van attendance were between 1055 - 2290, it would fall within the expected range of ALL Modern GPs. But it would need to be within 1880 - 2340 players to fall within the expected range for all 2014-2015 Modern GPs. Again, there are many limitations to an analysis like this that does not include weather, holidays, plane ticket prices, competing events, and a million other factors that can affect attendance. But it's a great place to start.
Finally, the preregistration for GP Van is at 525 at the last check (2/19 at around noon).
1. Affinity
2. Burn
3. Infect
4. Burn
5. Amulet Bloom
6. Junk
7. Infect
8. UR Twin
I'm also going to go out on a limb and say an Amulet Bloom deck is going to do something dumb on camera (e.g. turn two win) which will be pointed to as the reason for a banning in March. The top eight will have many new faces who happened to roll the right matchups, and playing first will be the most important contributor to winning all weekend.
'78 CB750F, '09 CBR600RR
1: UR Twin
2: Junk (Traditional)
3: Infect
4: Burn
5: Burn
6: Junk (Wilson Style)
7: Amulet Combo
8: Affinity
U Tron
GW Bogles
RG Loam
UR Blue Breach
RBU Grixis Goryo
BRU Grixis Delver
GBR Jund
GBW Junk
Active Legacy Decks
BR Reanimator
2 Abzan/Junk
2 Twin
2 Burn
Affinity
Infect
WotC shows the same deck in about 75% of its coverage, making people think the deck is a bigger part of the meta than it actually is (actually stats will show it does not break 15%). The commentators make dumb calls, have no idea about simple interactions in highly popular decks and overhype things that dont deserve it. Oh and people scream for a ban on the key card in the deck that wins the tourney.
WotC bashing aside:
TOP 8
1 Abzan
2 Decks maindecking Blood Moon
1 Infect
1 Affinity
2 Burn
1 Something new
In terms of what decks we see, Abzan>Twin>Burn>Abzan. So we'll see those 3 and then 1 or 2 linear combo decks in the top 8. Nothing original, nothing exciting. I see Twin taking down the whole thing again since in a field of one fair deck (Abzan) and all linear "combo" decks (including burn and infect and affinity), Twin is the only deck that can operate on both axes.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
2 twin
2 abzan
1 infect
1 burn
1 affinity
1 random - hoping for loam pox
I do not think bloom will do well this tourny now that more people know how it works. I'm really hoping for more balanced meta #'s between the decks, but if not then something will be banned.
Grand Arbiter
Omnath
Skittles
1 Junk
1 Burn
1 Affinity
1 Tron
1 Zoo
1 Breach
2 Twin
Junk will be the most played but also the greatest loser at the tournament.
Breach will constantly win turn 3.
Twin, Breach or Burn will win the GP and it will be because of match-ups/hate.
Mardu Midrange and BW Tokens will be the breakthrough decks showing up at top 16 despite minimal meta %.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
Mepmhis weekend weather
http://www.weather.com/weather/weekend/l/USTN0325:1:US
Vancouver weekend weather
http://www.weather.com/weather/weekend/l/CAXX0518:1:CA
I know right, why leave the comforts of America when you can experience the Canadian winter here.
talking about canadian cities here. Use appropriate (real) unit. Approximately 4373 kilometers between vancouver and toronto according to google map.
yeah lol. to americans reading my previous post, take it at the friendly ribbing it is lol
1 Twin
2 Junk
2 Burn
1 Aggro strat (either Merfolk or Affinity)
1 Titan (which is likely to be more popular after the PT)
1 flex slot (hopefully something like Living End, more likely something like Tron or another copy of Junk/Twin).
Does anyone know who is hosting the coverage? I'm assuming it's Wizards' team.
URW Control
WBG Abzan
GRW Burn
EDH
GR Rosheen Meanderer
MTGO/MTGA: Tyclone
My Primers ~ GWx Vizier Company ~ Knightfall ~ RG Eldrazi ~ Green's Sun's Zenith
More Brews ~ Modern Four Horsemen ~ Gitrog Dredge
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
My top 8 no order
1 Junk
2 Twin
2 Burn
1 Amulet
1 Infect
1 something over looked/new
dating?
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
Can't get much further from MTG, lol. I am lucky my wife likes to play.
Working on:G/W Hatebears, Mono Blue Tron, U/R Delver
Quote from TheDasuri:
First they came for the ghosts of past standards like Jace the Mindsculptor and artifact lands
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a filthy spike
Then they came for the cantrips
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a filthy blue player
Then they came for the Bloodbraid Elves
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a filthy midrange player
Then they came for the Seething Song
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a filthy combo player
Then they came for me
And there was no one left