Here are my predictions and guesses for the event:
1. Grixis and Jund will be big. This is partially due to hype around both decks, but mostly due to legitimate power in cards like Moon and Command.
2. Amulet Bloom is going to rock. Players will prepare for the deck better but will still suck at playing against it. Experienced Amulet pilots will exploit this.
3. There will be a Company deck in the T8. Not sure which one (my guess would be Abzan Company), but the card will show up there in the hands of a good pilot and skilled deckbuilder.
4. Grixis Twin will win the event. I actually don't like predicting GP winners because there are too many factors, but I'm going safe here and betting on Twin.
I hope we see a lot of Tron and Amulet decks getting wrecked.
Well, we are going to get a lot of Blood Moon action to screw with Amulet players... unless of course the Moon buyout was an Amulet player conspiracy to make their deck unbeatable at the GP! OR MORE SINISTER YET: a conspiracy by anti-Bloom players who want Bloom banned and think that reducing the Moon stock will lead to a GP win and thus a deck banning!!!!11
But as much as we can count on Moon, we can also count on players to **** up on and off camera against Amulet. So that's working in Bloom's favor.
Really hoping to dodge tron with classic junk. It seems like a good place to be against grixis, twin, jund, and infect. Seems like a good choice to take a middle road here and sit between the favored fair matchup and the decks that might be trying to exploit big mana decks by being faster like infect, affinity and twin.
Really hoping to dodge tron with classic junk. It seems like a good place to be against grixis, twin, jund, and infect. Seems like a good choice to take a middle road here and sit between the favored fair matchup and the decks that might be trying to exploit big mana decks by being faster like infect, affinity and twin.
So if Tron and Amulet really saturate the top 8 of this GP...
Will we possibly see a Tron banning in Modern after the next B&R announcmeent? I've noticed that ALOT of the Pro Players (like PVDDR and BBD) have been complaining recently about Tron even being in the format.
So if Tron and Amulet really saturate the top 8 of this GP...
Will we possibly see a Tron banning in Modern after the next B&R announcmeent? I've noticed that ALOT of the Pro Players (like PVDDR and BBD) have been complaining recently about Tron even being in the format.
Dear lord. Chill out people. Tron has NEVER won a GP before. I think it's placed in the T8 maybe once or twice. Normally I'm fine with this thread being freeform discussion of the event, but if it devolves into flagrantly unsupported ban speculation (especially nonsense like this), then that's going to change. The fact that people are legitimately asking for a Tron ban suggests that players have literally no idea about how banlists work and Modern metagames look.
I hope we see a lot of Tron and Amulet decks getting wrecked.
Well, we are going to get a lot of Blood Moon action to screw with Amulet players... unless of course the Moon buyout was an Amulet player conspiracy to make their deck unbeatable at the GP! OR MORE SINISTER YET: a conspiracy by anti-Bloom players who want Bloom banned and think that reducing the Moon stock will lead to a GP win and thus a deck banning!!!!11
But as much as we can count on Moon, we can also count on players to **** up on and off camera against Amulet. So that's working in Bloom's favor.
Well if I would participate in the GP you can bet that I would have 4 Fulminator Mages in my sideboard. I hope everyone thinks this way so we won't see a repeat of last weekend
So if Tron and Amulet really saturate the top 8 of this GP...
Will we possibly see a Tron banning in Modern after the next B&R announcmeent? I've noticed that ALOT of the Pro Players (like PVDDR and BBD) have been complaining recently about Tron even being in the format.
BBD historically whines about Tron. He did a VS video against CVM (who was on Tron) and Brian fussed about it the whole time. He even admits the reason the reason he doesn't like it is because he likes decks that are bad against Tron (mainly BGx variants).
2 Grixis decks (I think one of them will be a Twin deck)
2 BGx deck (I bet on a Junk/Jund split)
1 Amulet Bloom deck (if a good pilot plays it, it is really really good)
1 CoCo deck (Junk most likely, but I think Naya can also get to a top 8 finish)
1 UR Twin (ofc Twin is a safe bet)
1 fringe deck (something like Meerfolk, Delver, Scapeshift, Tron (either RG or Mono U),...)
Only problem: I can't watch it
Greetings,
Kathal
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What I play or have:
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
So if Tron and Amulet really saturate the top 8 of this GP...
Will we possibly see a Tron banning in Modern after the next B&R announcmeent? I've noticed that ALOT of the Pro Players (like PVDDR and BBD) have been complaining recently about Tron even being in the format.
BBD historically whines about Tron. He did a VS video against CVM (who was on Tron) and Brian fussed about it the whole time. He even admits the reason the reason he doesn't like it is because he likes decks that are bad against Tron (mainly BGx variants).
Tron will not see a ban.
It's not even that all BG/x decks have the same matchup. Abzan and Jund can definitely win against Tron. It's not an 80-20 matchup or anything silly like that.
Pod/Company decks have a real bad matchup though. Not only do they have almost no disruption all their creatures are also tiny and just Pyroclasm fodder.
And we all know BBD was always on the Pod side of things. So yeah he has a real reason to hate Tron
Tron is like the Force of Will of Modern. It polices the format because if you don't prepare for it at all it will wreck your deck (unless you are Twin). It is good to have around, but the problem comes when there are too many decks like that. Things like Affinity where if you do not pack specific sideboard hate you will loose to it. THIS is a problem because it stretches sideboards thin across the format. It still makes up the rough lifecycle of the format:
Really hoping to dodge tron with classic junk. It seems like a good place to be against grixis, twin, jund, and infect. Seems like a good choice to take a middle road here and sit between the favored fair matchup and the decks that might be trying to exploit big mana decks by being faster like infect, affinity and twin.
What will you be running?
Junk midrange (not little kid, liege, or coco), running bobs. I'm coming around to understanding why people are big on jund, but I feel favored or 50/50 vs everything except tron, which is dodge-able. Souls and a full set of abrupt decay seems like a good bet against anything preying on tron, and I'd much rather be playing junk in the jund mirrors that also seem like they'll be prevalent. We'll see!
Edit: I hate tron so much, I'll play against anything and I never feel as bad losing as I do against tron--nothing bannable in my eyes, but christ, I hate that deck. I hope people are gunning for it.
Really hoping to dodge tron with classic junk. It seems like a good place to be against grixis, twin, jund, and infect. Seems like a good choice to take a middle road here and sit between the favored fair matchup and the decks that might be trying to exploit big mana decks by being faster like infect, affinity and twin.
What will you be running?
Junk midrange (not little kid, liege, or coco), running bobs. I'm coming around to understanding why people are big on jund, but I feel favored or 50/50 vs everything except tron, which is dodge-able. Souls and a full set of abrupt decay seems like a good bet against anything preying on tron, and I'd much rather be playing junk in the jund mirrors that also seem like they'll be prevalent. We'll see!
Edit: I hate tron so much, I'll play against anything and I never feel as bad losing as I do against tron--nothing bannable in my eyes, but christ, I hate that deck. I hope people are gunning for it.
If people are gunning for Tron, you will be in a good position. Infect and Burn hit Tron pretty hard (especially infect) and Junk should be fine against those. Obviously all the Twin and Delver decks will be manageable for Junk.
2 Grixis decks (I think one of them will be a Twin deck)
2 BGx deck (I bet on a Junk/Jund split)
1 Amulet Bloom deck (if a good pilot plays it, it is really really good)
1 CoCo deck (Junk most likely, but I think Naya can also get to a top 8 finish)
1 UR Twin (ofc Twin is a safe bet)
1 fringe deck (something like Meerfolk, Delver, Scapeshift, Tron (either RG or Mono U),...)
Only problem: I can't watch it
Greetings,
Kathal
My prediction is very close to this one.
2 Grixis Twin
1 UR Twin (will win it all)
1 Burn
1 Abzan
1 Amulet Bloom (will take second)
1 Abzan Collected Company
1 Affinity
A few more general predictions:
- Last week saw a large shift from Abzan to Jund, but I think this week will mark a closer to 50/50 split between the two.
- UR Twin is going to steal a lot of games with Blood Moon on top of its occasional turn four wins.
- Amulet Bloom is going to over-perform yet again, but I don't believe it will be the fault of its opponents. I believe the deck is much more consistent and resilient than most give it credit for, and it will continue to win in the face of the insufficient hate people are packing for it.
- Burn will make a good showing as it's dropped off the radar a bit thanks to the Tron/Amulet Bloom hate train, and people still think playing a Feed the Clans or two in their sideboard is enough to win the matchup. It's not.
- Affinity will have a reasonable showing for much the same reason. A copy of Kolaghan's Command or two does not mean your Affinity matchup is suddenly excellent.
- Tron will have a poor showing. People are going to be prepared for the Tron and Amulet Bloom matchups after last weekend, but Tron is going to get the worst of it. I think Twin will be showing up in droves and while Amulet Bloom has the explosiveness to win seemingly bad matchups, Tron does not.
- Collected Company decks will do decidedly okay. This event will further cement it as a solid tier 1.5 deck and help standardize lists, but it will not be the outbreak format champion dropping the Peoples' Elbow on Modern that the hype would have you believe.
Really hoping to dodge tron with classic junk. It seems like a good place to be against grixis, twin, jund, and infect. Seems like a good choice to take a middle road here and sit between the favored fair matchup and the decks that might be trying to exploit big mana decks by being faster like infect, affinity and twin.
What will you be running?
Junk midrange (not little kid, liege, or coco), running bobs. I'm coming around to understanding why people are big on jund, but I feel favored or 50/50 vs everything except tron, which is dodge-able. Souls and a full set of abrupt decay seems like a good bet against anything preying on tron, and I'd much rather be playing junk in the jund mirrors that also seem like they'll be prevalent. We'll see!
Edit: I hate tron so much, I'll play against anything and I never feel as bad losing as I do against tron--nothing bannable in my eyes, but christ, I hate that deck. I hope people are gunning for it.
For what it's worth I think that's a great choice, and I'd also be running classic Abzan if I could make it. Abzan has a lot of good matchups, and the bad ones are far better than most will have you believe provided you've done a little preparation. The playset of Abrupt Decays in particular will be very strong against a field that will likely be brim full of Twin lists and Blood Moons. Mind sharing your list?
I will PM you in a few hours when I'm off work, but suffice it to say my SB will be decided the night before after I see what I see in the grinders tomorrow. I don't want to be packing 4 fulminators, extra maelstrom pulses, gaddock teegs, ect and realized no one is playing Tron/bloom or whatever.
Really hoping to dodge tron with classic junk. It seems like a good place to be against grixis, twin, jund, and infect. Seems like a good choice to take a middle road here and sit between the favored fair matchup and the decks that might be trying to exploit big mana decks by being faster like infect, affinity and twin.
What will you be running?
Junk midrange (not little kid, liege, or coco), running bobs. I'm coming around to understanding why people are big on jund, but I feel favored or 50/50 vs everything except tron, which is dodge-able. Souls and a full set of abrupt decay seems like a good bet against anything preying on tron, and I'd much rather be playing junk in the jund mirrors that also seem like they'll be prevalent. We'll see!
Edit: I hate tron so much, I'll play against anything and I never feel as bad losing as I do against tron--nothing bannable in my eyes, but christ, I hate that deck. I hope people are gunning for it.
Bob in Junk, seems interesting. My brother is currently playing with 2 Voice/Bitterblossom MD as additional 2 drops (beside Goyfs). This improves so many match-ups he told me. Also, the decline of Infect is great for this deck (only having Path as early interaction hurts the deck). And yeah, the RG Tron match-up is a horror
1 fringe deck (something like Meerfolk, Delver, Scapeshift, Tron (either RG or Mono U),...)
I'd like to see Living End or Ad Nauseam making top 8 : I'd be pretty satisfied (let me wish)!
IMO Living End has more chances of Top 8 than Ad Nauseam, simply because it is a great deck against non Grixis Delver builds and BGx of any kind, which will have a huge metagame share (I'm thinking around 30%). Ad Nauseam lacks something (I played the deck for a long time), so I doubt it can top 8 it. It may get close to top 16 but not top 8.
2 Grixis decks (I think one of them will be a Twin deck)
2 BGx deck (I bet on a Junk/Jund split)
1 Amulet Bloom deck (if a good pilot plays it, it is really really good)
1 CoCo deck (Junk most likely, but I think Naya can also get to a top 8 finish)
1 UR Twin (ofc Twin is a safe bet)
1 fringe deck (something like Meerfolk, Delver, Scapeshift, Tron (either RG or Mono U),...)
Only problem: I can't watch it
Greetings,
Kathal
My prediction is very close to this one.
2 Grixis Twin
1 UR Twin (will win it all)
1 Burn
1 Abzan
1 Amulet Bloom (will take second)
1 Abzan Collected Company
1 Affinity
A few more general predictions:
- Last week saw a large shift from Abzan to Jund, but I think this week will mark a closer to 50/50 split between the two.
- UR Twin is going to steal a lot of games with Blood Moon on top of its occasional turn four wins.
- Amulet Bloom is going to over-perform yet again, but I don't believe it will be the fault of its opponents. I believe the deck is much more consistent and resilient than most give it credit for, and it will continue to win in the face of the insufficient hate people are packing for it.
- Burn will make a good showing as it's dropped off the radar a bit thanks to the Tron/Amulet Bloom hate train, and people still think playing a Feed the Clans or two in their sideboard is enough to win the matchup. It's not.
- Affinity will have a reasonable showing for much the same reason. A copy of Kolaghan's Command or two does not mean your Affinity matchup is suddenly excellent.
- Tron will have a poor showing. People are going to be prepared for the Tron and Amulet Bloom matchups after last weekend, but Tron is going to get the worst of it. I think Twin will be showing up in droves and while Amulet Bloom has the explosiveness to win seemingly bad matchups, Tron does not.
- Collected Company decks will do decidedly okay. This event will further cement it as a solid tier 1.5 deck and help standardize lists, but it will not be the outbreak format champion dropping the Peoples' Elbow on Modern that the hype would have you believe.
I brainstormed a little bit, I think, that the last slot will be one of those (from most likely to least): Affinity, Burn, RG Tron, rest. As you pointed it out, the Affinity hate declined and especially the Grixis decks have not a great match-up against Affinity. I mean, I played 30 or even more games against Grixis Delver with 2/2 Electrolyze/Command, Terminates, Bolts and Cuts and I my win percentage as NON affinity player (just proxied the deck, since he wanted to test against it) was over 60%, and that's against an already hateful build (he played both Forked Bolt and Darkblast MD ). The more I think about it, the more I'm sure that Affinity will make it to an top 8 finish.
Furthermore, the more I think about CoCo in the current meta (and with the current builds) the more I'm sure that it will be not Top 8 but put some numbers (1-2) in the Top 16.
I also expect a 50/50 split (or close around it) from Jund and Junk, simply because Jund didn't show the results it was expected and so many people switched back to Junk (cause obviously it is the better deck ).
Greetings,
Kathal
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
What I play or have:
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
Btw. if anybody gives a crap about my opinion, I think that Counter-Cat (4c Delver with Nacatl) is probably the best deck for THIS GP. My experience showed, that most of the current match-ups are either 50-50 or better. Since I expect a ton of Twin in all forms, Grixis decks and BGx, the deck seems well positioned, because it has against the first two a good match-up (UR Twin is around 65-35 for Delver, and yeah it is that good) and against BGx still a 45-55. I couldn't test against Amulet Bloom yet (hard to find a good player), but on Paper it looks pretty even.
Greetings,
Kathal
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
What I play or have:
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
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GP Charlotte Stream: http://www.twitch.tv/scglive
Stream starts Saturday at 9:30 AM EST
GP Charlotte Coverage: http://www.starcitygames.com/events/130515_charlotte.html
1. Grixis and Jund will be big. This is partially due to hype around both decks, but mostly due to legitimate power in cards like Moon and Command.
2. Amulet Bloom is going to rock. Players will prepare for the deck better but will still suck at playing against it. Experienced Amulet pilots will exploit this.
3. There will be a Company deck in the T8. Not sure which one (my guess would be Abzan Company), but the card will show up there in the hands of a good pilot and skilled deckbuilder.
4. Grixis Twin will win the event. I actually don't like predicting GP winners because there are too many factors, but I'm going safe here and betting on Twin.
I also wrote an article discussing these points in greater detail:
http://modernnexus.com/expectations-and-predictions-for-gp-charlotte/
GO TWIN!!! WIN THIS GP!!!
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
Please no. As a Twin player, I need this deck to stop winning. Ugh. Stupid Wizards.
Twin is going to be out in force, so I think Tron and Amulet should have their work cut out for them.
I hope something silly like that Fabiano Sultai deck or Soul Sisters or something takes down the tournament.
Well, we are going to get a lot of Blood Moon action to screw with Amulet players... unless of course the Moon buyout was an Amulet player conspiracy to make their deck unbeatable at the GP! OR MORE SINISTER YET: a conspiracy by anti-Bloom players who want Bloom banned and think that reducing the Moon stock will lead to a GP win and thus a deck banning!!!!11
But as much as we can count on Moon, we can also count on players to **** up on and off camera against Amulet. So that's working in Bloom's favor.
Really hoping to dodge tron with classic junk. It seems like a good place to be against grixis, twin, jund, and infect. Seems like a good choice to take a middle road here and sit between the favored fair matchup and the decks that might be trying to exploit big mana decks by being faster like infect, affinity and twin.
What will you be running?
Will we possibly see a Tron banning in Modern after the next B&R announcmeent? I've noticed that ALOT of the Pro Players (like PVDDR and BBD) have been complaining recently about Tron even being in the format.
Dear lord. Chill out people. Tron has NEVER won a GP before. I think it's placed in the T8 maybe once or twice. Normally I'm fine with this thread being freeform discussion of the event, but if it devolves into flagrantly unsupported ban speculation (especially nonsense like this), then that's going to change. The fact that people are legitimately asking for a Tron ban suggests that players have literally no idea about how banlists work and Modern metagames look.
Well if I would participate in the GP you can bet that I would have 4 Fulminator Mages in my sideboard. I hope everyone thinks this way so we won't see a repeat of last weekend
BBD historically whines about Tron. He did a VS video against CVM (who was on Tron) and Brian fussed about it the whole time. He even admits the reason the reason he doesn't like it is because he likes decks that are bad against Tron (mainly BGx variants).
Tron will not see a ban.
2 Grixis decks (I think one of them will be a Twin deck)
2 BGx deck (I bet on a Junk/Jund split)
1 Amulet Bloom deck (if a good pilot plays it, it is really really good)
1 CoCo deck (Junk most likely, but I think Naya can also get to a top 8 finish)
1 UR Twin (ofc Twin is a safe bet)
1 fringe deck (something like Meerfolk, Delver, Scapeshift, Tron (either RG or Mono U),...)
Only problem: I can't watch it
Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
It's not even that all BG/x decks have the same matchup. Abzan and Jund can definitely win against Tron. It's not an 80-20 matchup or anything silly like that.
Pod/Company decks have a real bad matchup though. Not only do they have almost no disruption all their creatures are also tiny and just Pyroclasm fodder.
And we all know BBD was always on the Pod side of things. So yeah he has a real reason to hate Tron
BG/x Midrange > Combo > Tron/Control > ...
MTGO/MTGA: Tyclone
My Primers ~ GWx Vizier Company ~ Knightfall ~ RG Eldrazi ~ Green's Sun's Zenith
More Brews ~ Modern Four Horsemen ~ Gitrog Dredge
I'd like to see Living End or Ad Nauseam making top 8 : I'd be pretty satisfied (let me wish)!
Aggro: Naya Burn RWG
Combo: Scapeshift RG
Control: Jeskai Control UWR
Legacy
Control: Miracles UW
Aggro: Burn R
Junk midrange (not little kid, liege, or coco), running bobs. I'm coming around to understanding why people are big on jund, but I feel favored or 50/50 vs everything except tron, which is dodge-able. Souls and a full set of abrupt decay seems like a good bet against anything preying on tron, and I'd much rather be playing junk in the jund mirrors that also seem like they'll be prevalent. We'll see!
Edit: I hate tron so much, I'll play against anything and I never feel as bad losing as I do against tron--nothing bannable in my eyes, but christ, I hate that deck. I hope people are gunning for it.
If people are gunning for Tron, you will be in a good position. Infect and Burn hit Tron pretty hard (especially infect) and Junk should be fine against those. Obviously all the Twin and Delver decks will be manageable for Junk.
My prediction is very close to this one.
2 Grixis Twin
1 UR Twin (will win it all)
1 Burn
1 Abzan
1 Amulet Bloom (will take second)
1 Abzan Collected Company
1 Affinity
A few more general predictions:
- Last week saw a large shift from Abzan to Jund, but I think this week will mark a closer to 50/50 split between the two.
- UR Twin is going to steal a lot of games with Blood Moon on top of its occasional turn four wins.
- Amulet Bloom is going to over-perform yet again, but I don't believe it will be the fault of its opponents. I believe the deck is much more consistent and resilient than most give it credit for, and it will continue to win in the face of the insufficient hate people are packing for it.
- Burn will make a good showing as it's dropped off the radar a bit thanks to the Tron/Amulet Bloom hate train, and people still think playing a Feed the Clans or two in their sideboard is enough to win the matchup. It's not.
- Affinity will have a reasonable showing for much the same reason. A copy of Kolaghan's Command or two does not mean your Affinity matchup is suddenly excellent.
- Tron will have a poor showing. People are going to be prepared for the Tron and Amulet Bloom matchups after last weekend, but Tron is going to get the worst of it. I think Twin will be showing up in droves and while Amulet Bloom has the explosiveness to win seemingly bad matchups, Tron does not.
- Collected Company decks will do decidedly okay. This event will further cement it as a solid tier 1.5 deck and help standardize lists, but it will not be the outbreak format champion dropping the Peoples' Elbow on Modern that the hype would have you believe.
For what it's worth I think that's a great choice, and I'd also be running classic Abzan if I could make it. Abzan has a lot of good matchups, and the bad ones are far better than most will have you believe provided you've done a little preparation. The playset of Abrupt Decays in particular will be very strong against a field that will likely be brim full of Twin lists and Blood Moons. Mind sharing your list?
'78 CB750F, '09 CBR600RR
Bob in Junk, seems interesting. My brother is currently playing with 2 Voice/Bitterblossom MD as additional 2 drops (beside Goyfs). This improves so many match-ups he told me. Also, the decline of Infect is great for this deck (only having Path as early interaction hurts the deck). And yeah, the RG Tron match-up is a horror
IMO Living End has more chances of Top 8 than Ad Nauseam, simply because it is a great deck against non Grixis Delver builds and BGx of any kind, which will have a huge metagame share (I'm thinking around 30%). Ad Nauseam lacks something (I played the deck for a long time), so I doubt it can top 8 it. It may get close to top 16 but not top 8.
I brainstormed a little bit, I think, that the last slot will be one of those (from most likely to least): Affinity, Burn, RG Tron, rest. As you pointed it out, the Affinity hate declined and especially the Grixis decks have not a great match-up against Affinity. I mean, I played 30 or even more games against Grixis Delver with 2/2 Electrolyze/Command, Terminates, Bolts and Cuts and I my win percentage as NON affinity player (just proxied the deck, since he wanted to test against it) was over 60%, and that's against an already hateful build (he played both Forked Bolt and Darkblast MD ). The more I think about it, the more I'm sure that Affinity will make it to an top 8 finish.
Furthermore, the more I think about CoCo in the current meta (and with the current builds) the more I'm sure that it will be not Top 8 but put some numbers (1-2) in the Top 16.
I also expect a 50/50 split (or close around it) from Jund and Junk, simply because Jund didn't show the results it was expected and so many people switched back to Junk (cause obviously it is the better deck ).
Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
I hope the CoCo deck will be Elves.
I expect 2 GBx decks to make it to top 8.
DECKS:
UB Faeries [Midrange/Tempo]
RWUGB Affinity[Aggro]
FAERIES TOO STRONK!!!1111
- Fae Prophecy, 201
5678Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)