Emmi isnt on zen. Emmi will have its own block (as it deserves)
The art book mentions Jace is looking food Emrakul and Sorin on Innistrad. Say Goodbye to our favorite gothic horror plane when you can.
spoilers! I havent got mine yet.
Could make sence flavor wise. Go for english horror to cosmic horror. I hope not. I mean, hes likely there for sorin and emi isnt there. Some walkers show up in aets that have nothing to do with them litterally for face time.
I have a hunch our walkers for this time is sorin, garruk, tibalt, jace and lili. Jace being needed to bring lili into the superfriends pact, lili needed for garruk to show up. Sorin because the only thing he still cares about is his home (and my vague hope to finally see him interact with avacyn and have a weird dad moment) an tiblt because hes litterally the only red walker other than chandra, and i bet they want to "right the wrong" he is.
Natural State. I wanted to see how much this card hits and how much it misses, so I checked out mtgoldfish and wrote out the hit to miss ratio. Skipping stuff like Etched champion or explosives, because this does nothing new that natures claim or naturalize cant.
Twin
Hits:2/3
Blood Moon
Spell Skite
Misses:1/3
Splinter Twin
Affinity
Hits: 15/15
Memnite
Ornithopter
Signal Pest
Arcbound ravanger
vault skirge
steel overseer
spell skite
master of etherium
mox opal
springleaf drum
plating
blink moth
inkmoth
relic
blood moon
Misses:0/15
Nothing that natualize cant hit either.
Tron
Hits: 7/8
Spellskite
sphere
star
map
O-stone
Relic
Crucible of Worlds
Overall thats out of 99 hits 109 card targets in decks. A 90% hit ratio Now, obviously not all cards weigh equal. Notable misses are Wurmcoil, splinter twin, layline of sancity and hivemind. So if youre a combo deck, layline miss might be a huge issue. Hivemind isnt so much an issue, because generally speaking, when they cast hivemind, the game SHOULD be over. Its very rare they cast it and dont have a pact to win. The miss of coil for tron, and twin for twin is the biggest strikes against the card. But the fact that its litterall 50% cheaper might counter it.
If you want to use natural state, you are trying to win the game quick. Zoo, elves, mono green stompy, even hate bears probably like the card. Its diffently an aggro version of nature's claim. I'm sure it will see sideboard play and be a new staple.
Natural State. I wanted to see how much this card hits and how much it misses, so I checked out mtgoldfish and wrote out the hit to miss ratio. Skipping stuff like Etched champion or explosives, because this does nothing new that natures claim or naturalize cant.
Twin
Hits:2/3
Blood Moon
Spell Skite
Misses:1/3
Splinter Twin
Affinity
Hits: 15/15
Memnite
Ornithopter
Signal Pest
Arcbound ravanger
vault skirge
steel overseer
spell skite
master of etherium
mox opal
springleaf drum
plating
blink moth
inkmoth
relic
blood moon
Misses:0/15
Nothing that natualize cant hit either.
Tron
Hits: 7/8
Spellskite
sphere
star
map
O-stone
Relic
Crucible of Worlds
Overall thats out of 99 hits 109 card targets in decks. A 90% hit ratio Now, obviously not all cards weigh equal. Notable misses are Wurmcoil, splinter twin, layline of sancity and hivemind. So if youre a combo deck, layline miss might be a huge issue. Hivemind isnt so much an issue, because generally speaking, when they cast hivemind, the game SHOULD be over. Its very rare they cast it and dont have a pact to win. The miss of coil for tron, and twin for twin is the biggest strikes against the card. But the fact that its litterall 50% cheaper might counter it.
If you want to use natural state, you are trying to win the game quick. Zoo, elves, mono green stompy, even hate bears probably like the card. Its diffently an aggro version of nature's claim. I'm sure it will see sideboard play and be a new staple.
It's a good card, but I think Hatebears/DnT would rather play more Pridemages or Reclamation Sage especially with the printing of Oath of Nissa, no?
Natural State. I wanted to see how much this card hits and how much it misses, so I checked out mtgoldfish and wrote out the hit to miss ratio. Skipping stuff like Etched champion or explosives, because this does nothing new that natures claim or naturalize cant.
Twin
Hits:2/3
Blood Moon
Spell Skite
Misses:1/3
Splinter Twin
Affinity
Hits: 15/15
Memnite
Ornithopter
Signal Pest
Arcbound ravanger
vault skirge
steel overseer
spell skite
master of etherium
mox opal
springleaf drum
plating
blink moth
inkmoth
relic
blood moon
Misses:0/15
Nothing that natualize cant hit either.
Tron
Hits: 7/8
Spellskite
sphere
star
map
O-stone
Relic
Crucible of Worlds
Overall thats out of 99 hits 109 card targets in decks. A 90% hit ratio Now, obviously not all cards weigh equal. Notable misses are Wurmcoil, splinter twin, layline of sancity and hivemind. So if youre a combo deck, layline miss might be a huge issue. Hivemind isnt so much an issue, because generally speaking, when they cast hivemind, the game SHOULD be over. Its very rare they cast it and dont have a pact to win. The miss of coil for tron, and twin for twin is the biggest strikes against the card. But the fact that its litterall 50% cheaper might counter it.
If you want to use natural state, you are trying to win the game quick. Zoo, elves, mono green stompy, even hate bears probably like the card. Its diffently an aggro version of nature's claim. I'm sure it will see sideboard play and be a new staple.
It's a good card, but I think Hatebears/DnT would rather play more Pridemages or Reclamation Sage especially with the printing of Oath of Nissa, no?
Likely. I realized that green delvers and kilnfiend decks/sucide zoos would also play the card. I dont claim to be a hate bears expert though.
Natural State. I wanted to see how much this card hits and how much it misses, so I checked out mtgoldfish and wrote out the hit to miss ratio. Skipping stuff like Etched champion or explosives, because this does nothing new that natures claim or naturalize cant.
Twin
Hits:2/3
Blood Moon
Spell Skite
Misses:1/3
Splinter Twin
Affinity
Hits: 15/15
Memnite
Ornithopter
Signal Pest
Arcbound ravanger
vault skirge
steel overseer
spell skite
master of etherium
mox opal
springleaf drum
plating
blink moth
inkmoth
relic
blood moon
Misses:0/15
Nothing that natualize cant hit either.
Tron
Hits: 7/8
Spellskite
sphere
star
map
O-stone
Relic
Crucible of Worlds
Overall thats out of 99 hits 109 card targets in decks. A 90% hit ratio Now, obviously not all cards weigh equal. Notable misses are Wurmcoil, splinter twin, layline of sancity and hivemind. So if youre a combo deck, layline miss might be a huge issue. Hivemind isnt so much an issue, because generally speaking, when they cast hivemind, the game SHOULD be over. Its very rare they cast it and dont have a pact to win. The miss of coil for tron, and twin for twin is the biggest strikes against the card. But the fact that its litterall 50% cheaper might counter it.
If you want to use natural state, you are trying to win the game quick. Zoo, elves, mono green stompy, even hate bears probably like the card. Its diffently an aggro version of nature's claim. I'm sure it will see sideboard play and be a new staple.
Cool analysis. However, I've always questioned using naturalize effects in modern instead of just Ancient Grudge. The only enchantment I'm truly afraid of is Pyromancers Ascention, Rest in Peace in some decks, and obviously everything in Bogles. Otherwise i never miss it and Grudge is so much better against Affinity Tron Lantern and such. Overall, if you like destroying enchantments I love this new spell, but I'm not sure if its even worth it. If there is a plague of bogles, i guess go for it.
Chalice's CMC is 0 when in play. So Natural State gets it on 0 too.
The issue I foresee with Natural State is that a lot of decks with green have a reason for playing some other card. Burn has Destructive Revelry which hits them for 2, making it almost a 2-for-1 (remember, Burn's 1 card = 3 damage to the face). Zoo and Elves have Qasali Pridemage and Reclamation Sage which are Collect/Chord-able answers. Wescoe's Hatebears has Pridemage which gets +2/+2 off Wilt-Leaf Liege if you don't need to sac it yet.
Chalice's CMC is 0 when in play. So Natural State always gets it.
The issue I foresee with Natural State is that a lot of decks with green have a reason for playing some other card. Burn has Destructive Revelry which hits them for 2, making it almost a 2-for-1 (remember, Burn's 1 card = 3 damage to the face). Zoo and Elves have Qasali Pridemage and Reclamation Sage which are Collect/Chord-able answers. Wescoe's Hatebears has Pridemage which gets +2/+2 off Wilt-Leaf Liege if you don't need to sac it yet.
Right, I wasn't saying that it was better than all other spells. Just that Its aggros variation on nature's claim. If you needed a 1 mana answer, rather than 2-3, this can do it. Sometimes if youre keeping 2 mana up all the time to answer a combo piece, you cant drop you're clock. Likewise, 1 mana means you can answer turn 2 amulet bloom nut draw on the draw.
Its a powerful tool, one to keep in mind. Yes grudge, revelry and pridemage exist. Still worth having copies in storage for if the meta shifts to you needing a fast answer. Its going to stay a good card for a long time to come, at least strictly powerlevel speaking.
The Zoo numbers should be Hits 5/6 and Misses 1/6: Worship costs 4. It doesn't throw your over all percentage off by much, but it is something to consider for people if "Worship + creature = GG" for their particular deck.
Still, thanks for the breakdown. It shows how useful that card can be if you want to take the chance on those misses.
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A little bit of testing with Infect swapping all Distortion Strikes with Slip Through Spaces, and Slip Through Space has already been significantly better than Distortion Strike simply because Slip Through Space cantrips. It reminds me of Shadow Rift in Pauper UR Aggro Delver--turning that unblockability spell into a desperation cantrip is that good. When I had no Infect dudes, it already cantripped into a Glistener Elf once so far.
Bearer of Silence has been decent to good so far in Eldrazi Processors. It's killed one Spellskite so far, but shucks, Twin played Tiago in response to me trying to take out Deceiver Exarch with another one. Being able to kill things without needing exiled cards rocks, and so does killing X/4+'s. Guess Bearer of Silence might eventually bite me in the butt against Affinity, though.
In the meantime, I don't know why my brain is currently desperately trying to make Essence Depleter work. Eldrazi Processors can try to play it cheap and get some life off it (although I've already ran into one situation where I couldn't pay to make Bearer of Silence sac creatures for turns straight on 4+ lands), and RG Tron can gain scads of life from it and it's Skullcrack/Atarka's Command-resistant (but dagnabbit, I couldn't make Timely Reinforcements work in the board against Burn before).
It's not about not dying, its about the pseudo card advantage that an angler followed by an Inverter of Truth would provide. After you cast Angler, Taisegur, or even murderous cut your graveyard would ideally be maybe 6 cards that you want to see. So you cast inverter and you get rid of any dead draws that would occur. Then you can use K. Command or familiars ruse to reset your library a few turns later.
You lost me. How are you resetting your library? Inverter of Truth's effect is library -> exile, graveyard -> library.
Because through gameplay library-> grave yard, then you familers ruse or flicker wisp on inverter to get your miniscule, but efficient library back.
It's not about not dying, its about the pseudo card advantage that an angler followed by an Inverter of Truth would provide. After you cast Angler, Taisegur, or even murderous cut your graveyard would ideally be maybe 6 cards that you want to see. So you cast inverter and you get rid of any dead draws that would occur. Then you can use K. Command or familiars ruse to reset your library a few turns later.
You lost me. How are you resetting your library? Inverter of Truth's effect is library -> exile, graveyard -> library.
Because through gameplay library-> grave yard, then you familers ruse or flicker wisp on inverter to get your miniscule, but efficient library back.
So you mean you recast him to get your mini library back?
That seems like lots of hoops to jump through for an effect that doesn't win you the game (what if they path inverter so you can't get it back and are left with no threat in the rest of your library? Or he just kills it and you don't happen to have K-Command?) Seems super fragile to me.
I think initially Oath of Nissa will be the big hit, but I really like goblin dark-dwellers. You need to build around it a bit, but I can imagine a deck that uses the dual card with one cheap side to cast early, the GDD for the spendy side later.
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Modern UB Tezzerator UBW Gifts B 8Rack
Legacy RB Goblins
The deck can produce insane amounts of red mana, but sometimes struggles to keep going due to the lack of blue mana for cantrips. Surge will be no problem and with an active assecion 7-8 Mana might already be enough for the kill without the need of casting more than 3-4 spells.
In light of the bans, has anyone's evaluation of Natural State and Warping Wail changed? Twin and Bloom aren't factors any more.
Compared to Nature's Claim, Natural State misses Wurmcoil and its tokens (though the Tron deck presents many other State targets which can stop your opponent from getting to 6+ mana in the first place). The other big card that State misses is Leyline of Sanctity, which only really sees play in combo decks wanting some protection from discard - mostly Amulet (lol), Ad Nauseam and Bogles. Like Tron, these decks present other juicy targets for State: Phyrexian Unlife, Pentad Prism, Daybreak Coronet. And Leyline provides just enough protection from discard for Bogles, even if you're playing Nature's Claim instead of Natural State. Their main fear is that you'll use discard to rip the Bogle/Scout out of their hand on turn 1. If they have a T0 Leyline, you either blow it up with Nature's Claim and not have the mana to take their Bogle with discard, or you don't have Nature's Claim, and can't take the Bogle because Leyline is protecting them. Either way, the Bogle makes it onto the battlefield, where it's safe from your discard. So having Claim instead of State doesn't leave you much better off, even if it does destroy Leyline.
The next thing to ask is, "which decks currently play Nature's Claim?" A quick check on mtgtop8 brings: Tron, Infect, Bogles, Scapeshift, Lantern. Clearly 4 life is hardly a drawback for Tron and Lantern (Tron has Grove of the Burnwillows and Lantern wins by deck-out), and sometimes even an advantage when you can Claim one of your artifacts to gain 4 life against aggro, especially something that's targeted by Destructive Revelry. Infect is a tricky one: depending on the build, sometimes it's easier to win by regular damage. It depends on the number of Wild Defiance that you're playing. As for Bogles, I haven't played it so I don't know how much of a drawback the 4 life is, but given that the deck usually produces creatures as big as, or bigger than, a Wurmcoil Engine, it seems like they might just stick to Claim. Scapeshift would switch to Natural State, given that the 4 life may put your opponent over 18, forcing you to play a land/ramp spell/Bolt to bring them back into OHKO range.
Are there any new decks that would play Natural State? In that regard, my opinion hasn't changed - there are more synergistic choices for other decks, like Destructive Revelry in Burn, which is 1 and 2/3 of a card, or things that can be Collected for (Qasali Pridemage, Reclamation Sage).
Warping Wail takes a double blow, since you don't have to worry about Deceiver Exarch, Pestermite, or Summer Bloom (unless UWR Kiki proves itself). The loss of Twin might increase the number of aggro decks playing 1/1s in the meta, but using a 2-mana spell to deal with a 1/1 that was casted for 0 or 1 mana is not exactly efficient. I think it's a lot worse now and will not see even SB play. Though, looking back at all the other charms in Modern, this should have been clear. I guess the new mana symbol tricked me into thinking it was better than it should be.
Warping Wail is still useful for countering Scapeshift (huge for RG Tron, good for Eldrazi Black) as well as the harder-to-snag Crumble to Dust (huge for RG Tron again), Creeping Corrosion/Shatterstorm (big for Affinity), and Anger of the Gods/Pyroclasm (big for Affinity). RG Tron isn't the biggest fan of running into stray Warping Wails itself. I predict that Warping Wail may take a small hit in popularity but will still be maindecked and sideboarded, especially when Blood Moon makes its Eldrazi Scion mode (barely) relevant.
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The art book mentions Jace is looking for Emrakul and Sorin on Innistrad. Say Goodbye to our favorite gothic horror plane when you can.
“I once had an entire race killed just to listen to the rattling of their dried bones as I waded through them.”
—Volrath
Could make sence flavor wise. Go for english horror to cosmic horror. I hope not. I mean, hes likely there for sorin and emi isnt there. Some walkers show up in aets that have nothing to do with them litterally for face time.
I have a hunch our walkers for this time is sorin, garruk, tibalt, jace and lili. Jace being needed to bring lili into the superfriends pact, lili needed for garruk to show up. Sorin because the only thing he still cares about is his home (and my vague hope to finally see him interact with avacyn and have a weird dad moment) an tiblt because hes litterally the only red walker other than chandra, and i bet they want to "right the wrong" he is.
Twin
Hits:2/3
Blood Moon
Spell Skite
Misses:1/3
Splinter Twin
Affinity
Hits: 15/15
Memnite
Ornithopter
Signal Pest
Arcbound ravanger
vault skirge
steel overseer
spell skite
master of etherium
mox opal
springleaf drum
plating
blink moth
inkmoth
relic
blood moon
Misses:0/15
Nothing that natualize cant hit either.
Tron
Hits: 7/8
Spellskite
sphere
star
map
O-stone
Relic
Crucible of Worlds
Misses:1/8
Wurmcoil
Junk
hits: 6/7
Phyrexian Unlife
Spell skite
Grafdigger's Cage
Ethersworn Canonist
Stony Silence
Choke
misses:1/7
Layline of Sancity
Burn:
Hits: 1/1
Great Revel
Misses: 0/1
Jund
hits: 2/3
Nihil Spellbomb
Choke
Misses: 1/3
Night of Souls' Betrayal
Infect
Hits: 5/5
Wild Defiance
Ichorclaw Myr
Spellskite
Rancor
Relic
Misses 0/5
Bloom
Hits: 2/4
Amulet of Vigor
Seal of Primordium
Misses: 2/4
Layline of Sancity
Hivemind
Merfolk
Hits: 5/6
Aether Vial
Speading Seas
Spellskite
Chalice of the void on 2+
relic
Misses: 1/6
Chalice of the void (more likely on 1)
Abzan Company
Hits:5/5
Spellskite
Eidolon of Rhetoric
Choke
Stony Silence
Misses:0/1
Grixis control
hits: 2/2
Blood moon
spellskite
Misses:
Eldrazi
hits: 7/8
Crucible of Worlds
Stony
map
Relic
Scrabbling Claws
Nihil Spellbomb
Mindstone
misses:1/8
Curse of deathshold
Boogles:
hits:10/11
Etheral Armor
Hyena Umbra
Rancor
Spider Umbra
Daybreak Coronet
Spirit Link
Spirit Mantle
Unflinching Courage
Keen Sense
stony Silence
Misses: 1/11
Layline of sancity
Living end
hits: 0/1
Misses: 1/1
Architects of Will
Zoo
hits: 6/6
Spellskite
unflinching
worship
blood moon
choke
stony silence
Misses: 0/6
Scapeshift
hits: 3/3
Spellskite
Relic of Progenitus
omen
Misses: 0/3
Lantern Control 14/14
Spellskite
mox opal
bridge
lantern
bell
codex
needle
spellbomb
grid
cage
sun drop
Seal of Primordium
Bow of Nylea
torpor orb
misses 0/14
Ad Nauseam
hits: 3/4
Lotus Bloom
Phyrexian Unlife
Pentad Prism
misses: 1/4
Leyline of Sanctity
Storm
hits: 3/3
Pyromancer Ascension
Blood moon
Defence grid
misses: 0/3
Overall thats out of 99 hits 109 card targets in decks. A 90% hit ratio Now, obviously not all cards weigh equal. Notable misses are Wurmcoil, splinter twin, layline of sancity and hivemind. So if youre a combo deck, layline miss might be a huge issue. Hivemind isnt so much an issue, because generally speaking, when they cast hivemind, the game SHOULD be over. Its very rare they cast it and dont have a pact to win. The miss of coil for tron, and twin for twin is the biggest strikes against the card. But the fact that its litterall 50% cheaper might counter it.
If you want to use natural state, you are trying to win the game quick. Zoo, elves, mono green stompy, even hate bears probably like the card. Its diffently an aggro version of nature's claim. I'm sure it will see sideboard play and be a new staple.
It's a good card, but I think Hatebears/DnT would rather play more Pridemages or Reclamation Sage especially with the printing of Oath of Nissa, no?
Likely. I realized that green delvers and kilnfiend decks/sucide zoos would also play the card. I dont claim to be a hate bears expert though.
Cool analysis. However, I've always questioned using naturalize effects in modern instead of just Ancient Grudge. The only enchantment I'm truly afraid of is Pyromancers Ascention, Rest in Peace in some decks, and obviously everything in Bogles. Otherwise i never miss it and Grudge is so much better against Affinity Tron Lantern and such. Overall, if you like destroying enchantments I love this new spell, but I'm not sure if its even worth it. If there is a plague of bogles, i guess go for it.
The issue I foresee with Natural State is that a lot of decks with green have a reason for playing some other card. Burn has Destructive Revelry which hits them for 2, making it almost a 2-for-1 (remember, Burn's 1 card = 3 damage to the face). Zoo and Elves have Qasali Pridemage and Reclamation Sage which are Collect/Chord-able answers. Wescoe's Hatebears has Pridemage which gets +2/+2 off Wilt-Leaf Liege if you don't need to sac it yet.
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
Right, I wasn't saying that it was better than all other spells. Just that Its aggros variation on nature's claim. If you needed a 1 mana answer, rather than 2-3, this can do it. Sometimes if youre keeping 2 mana up all the time to answer a combo piece, you cant drop you're clock. Likewise, 1 mana means you can answer turn 2 amulet bloom nut draw on the draw.
Its a powerful tool, one to keep in mind. Yes grudge, revelry and pridemage exist. Still worth having copies in storage for if the meta shifts to you needing a fast answer. Its going to stay a good card for a long time to come, at least strictly powerlevel speaking.
Still, thanks for the breakdown. It shows how useful that card can be if you want to take the chance on those misses.
Bearer of Silence has been decent to good so far in Eldrazi Processors. It's killed one Spellskite so far, but shucks, Twin played Tiago in response to me trying to take out Deceiver Exarch with another one. Being able to kill things without needing exiled cards rocks, and so does killing X/4+'s. Guess Bearer of Silence might eventually bite me in the butt against Affinity, though.
In the meantime, I don't know why my brain is currently desperately trying to make Essence Depleter work. Eldrazi Processors can try to play it cheap and get some life off it (although I've already ran into one situation where I couldn't pay to make Bearer of Silence sac creatures for turns straight on 4+ lands), and RG Tron can gain scads of life from it and it's Skullcrack/Atarka's Command-resistant (but dagnabbit, I couldn't make Timely Reinforcements work in the board against Burn before).
Because through gameplay library-> grave yard, then you familers ruse or flicker wisp on inverter to get your miniscule, but efficient library back.
UB Tezzerator
UBW Gifts
B 8Rack
Legacy
RB Goblins
So you mean you recast him to get your mini library back?
That seems like lots of hoops to jump through for an effect that doesn't win you the game (what if they path inverter so you can't get it back and are left with no threat in the rest of your library? Or he just kills it and you don't happen to have K-Command?) Seems super fragile to me.
UB Tezzerator
UBW Gifts
B 8Rack
Legacy
RB Goblins
Kozilek, the Great Distortion
Spatial Contortion
Warping Wail
Matter Reshaper
Reality Smasher
Stone Haven Outfitter
Searing Light
Slip Through Space
Comparative Analysis
Flaying Tendrils
Kozilek's Return
Reality Hemorrhage
Expedite (in being 5-8 copies of Crimson Wisps)
Kazuul's Toll Collector
Reckless Bushwhacker
Bonds of Mortality (probably only if indestructible becomes more of a thing)
Natural State
Nissa, Voice of Zendikar
Oath of Nissa
Pulse of Murasa
Sylvan Advocate
Void Grafter
Ayli, Eternal Pilgrim
Cliffhaven Vampire
Mina and Denn, Wildborn
Jori En, Ruin Diver
Stormchaser Mage
Weapons Trainer
Crumbling Vestige
Hissing Quagmire
Holdout Settlement
Needle Spires
Ruins of Oran-Rief
Sea Gate Wreckage
Wandering Fumarole
UB Tezzerator
UBW Gifts
B 8Rack
Legacy
RB Goblins
T2: Drake Familiar
Later: Riptide Chimera
Fall of the Titans
The deck can produce insane amounts of red mana, but sometimes struggles to keep going due to the lack of blue mana for cantrips. Surge will be no problem and with an active assecion 7-8 Mana might already be enough for the kill without the need of casting more than 3-4 spells.
Modern:
UWUW TronUW
Legacy:
WDeath N TaxesW
CEldrazi C
If you couldn't tell I hate greedy blue decks.
Vintage
WWhite Trash
Compared to Nature's Claim, Natural State misses Wurmcoil and its tokens (though the Tron deck presents many other State targets which can stop your opponent from getting to 6+ mana in the first place). The other big card that State misses is Leyline of Sanctity, which only really sees play in combo decks wanting some protection from discard - mostly Amulet (lol), Ad Nauseam and Bogles. Like Tron, these decks present other juicy targets for State: Phyrexian Unlife, Pentad Prism, Daybreak Coronet. And Leyline provides just enough protection from discard for Bogles, even if you're playing Nature's Claim instead of Natural State. Their main fear is that you'll use discard to rip the Bogle/Scout out of their hand on turn 1. If they have a T0 Leyline, you either blow it up with Nature's Claim and not have the mana to take their Bogle with discard, or you don't have Nature's Claim, and can't take the Bogle because Leyline is protecting them. Either way, the Bogle makes it onto the battlefield, where it's safe from your discard. So having Claim instead of State doesn't leave you much better off, even if it does destroy Leyline.
The next thing to ask is, "which decks currently play Nature's Claim?" A quick check on mtgtop8 brings: Tron, Infect, Bogles, Scapeshift, Lantern. Clearly 4 life is hardly a drawback for Tron and Lantern (Tron has Grove of the Burnwillows and Lantern wins by deck-out), and sometimes even an advantage when you can Claim one of your artifacts to gain 4 life against aggro, especially something that's targeted by Destructive Revelry. Infect is a tricky one: depending on the build, sometimes it's easier to win by regular damage. It depends on the number of Wild Defiance that you're playing. As for Bogles, I haven't played it so I don't know how much of a drawback the 4 life is, but given that the deck usually produces creatures as big as, or bigger than, a Wurmcoil Engine, it seems like they might just stick to Claim. Scapeshift would switch to Natural State, given that the 4 life may put your opponent over 18, forcing you to play a land/ramp spell/Bolt to bring them back into OHKO range.
Are there any new decks that would play Natural State? In that regard, my opinion hasn't changed - there are more synergistic choices for other decks, like Destructive Revelry in Burn, which is 1 and 2/3 of a card, or things that can be Collected for (Qasali Pridemage, Reclamation Sage).
Warping Wail takes a double blow, since you don't have to worry about Deceiver Exarch, Pestermite, or Summer Bloom (unless UWR Kiki proves itself). The loss of Twin might increase the number of aggro decks playing 1/1s in the meta, but using a 2-mana spell to deal with a 1/1 that was casted for 0 or 1 mana is not exactly efficient. I think it's a lot worse now and will not see even SB play. Though, looking back at all the other charms in Modern, this should have been clear. I guess the new mana symbol tricked me into thinking it was better than it should be.
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.