I am amused and not surprised that Abzan Company did so poorly on the way to Day 2. It perfectly fits the more measured Company analysis I gave in the last metagame update and undercuts much of the more hyperbolic assessments we saw in the leadup to Indy. I will also emphasize that I still consider all of this to be somewhat preliminary metagame analysis because we have no GP data. May 22 is the first day we will have a true picture of the new Modern. But this early data is great for predicting the GP field.
T8 players have been announced, but not decklists.
Pete Ingram: Jeskai Control
Josh Pellman: RW Control
Dylan Jones: ? JUND
Daniel Hendrickson: RG Valakut
Ryan Overturf: Grixis Delver
Alex Zurawaki: ? G/B INFECT
Stephen Dykman: ? TRON
Andrew Jessup: Infect
updated missing archetypes in bold
Loving the top 8 list, and it looks like we've got a very nice day 2 breakdown overall as well with quite a bit of diversity. Modern is pulling me back in again.
Did I miss something? Why did Ingram shuffle Emrakul+GY away? Nahiri puts it back in your hand at the end of turn, not sacrifice. Wouldn't have changed outcome, but it happened really quick and no one noticed. Or did he have 8 cards and had to discard?
Everyone knows what this post is going to say: it's too early to make conclusion about this tournament, let alone the format as a whole, with the extremely limited SCGIndy data we have. A huge reason for that is the so-called Day 2 effect. Decks that make it to Day 2 may do very poorly en route to the Top 32 because of new matches. For instance, maybe you stomp Abzan Company on Day 1 with your Tron deck, over-representing Tron in the initial Day 2 standings. But then you get crushed by all the people who prepared for Tron that you dodged on Day 1 by virtue of a larger field and more randomized matches against more fringe decks. The end result could be a deck with great Day 2 stats getting beaten up before it makes Top 32.
I'm going to keep harping on the "wait and see" mentality because its absence is one of the worst qualities of contemporary Magic, especially in Modern. A prime example of this was the furious outcry by Tron players who claimed their deck was banned and no longer viable because of Eye. Another prime example were the bad metagame and card analysts who assumed Sword's unban would destroy the format and get rid of aggro. The exact opposite predictions have come true so far, and even though the defining GP Weekend hasn't happened yet, it's unlikely these conditions will change too much.
We need to be more conservative and measured in our assessments of formats. It's one thing for clickbaity pros to be so hyperbolic; they have to get their articles read. On forums, we don't have that demand and should be able to have a more level-headed discussion about all this.
A conservative and measured approach to seeing the metagame isn't speculation. The entire point of forums is to speculate on what the result of big tournament has on the avg shop to the next big tourney. Saying that we should "be conservative" about anything we say is a little silly given that a forum (hell the internet as a whole) is made for hyperbolic statements. I understand what you are saying about making claims about "best decks and bannable cards" but I'm pretty sure we can speculate on the limited data. For example is anyone really going to say that Nahiri didn't drastically improve jeskai in that meta? Are people underrating decks that have good tribal synergy that aren't merfolk/elves? Sometimes it's fun to make bold predictions and be wrong about them. That is the fun of this website for me.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
On mtgsalvation people don't want to discuss ideas, so I give people something else to discuss: my controversial opinions.
Notable Conversion rates to top 32:
4/10 Tron
5/7 Jund
1/6 Scapeshift (including "4 color bring to light" which is a scapeshift deck)
4/5 Infect (including G/B)
1/3 Jeskai Control
2/3 Kiki-Chord
Everyone knows what this post is going to say: it's too early to make conclusion about this tournament, let alone the format as a whole, with the extremely limited SCGIndy data we have. A huge reason for that is the so-called Day 2 effect. Decks that make it to Day 2 may do very poorly en route to the Top 32 because of new matches. For instance, maybe you stomp Abzan Company on Day 1 with your Tron deck, over-representing Tron in the initial Day 2 standings. But then you get crushed by all the people who prepared for Tron that you dodged on Day 1 by virtue of a larger field and more randomized matches against more fringe decks. The end result could be a deck with great Day 2 stats getting beaten up before it makes Top 32.
I'm going to keep harping on the "wait and see" mentality because its absence is one of the worst qualities of contemporary Magic, especially in Modern. A prime example of this was the furious outcry by Tron players who claimed their deck was banned and no longer viable because of Eye. Another prime example were the bad metagame and card analysts who assumed Sword's unban would destroy the format and get rid of aggro. The exact opposite predictions have come true so far, and even though the defining GP Weekend hasn't happened yet, it's unlikely these conditions will change too much.
We need to be more conservative and measured in our assessments of formats. It's one thing for clickbaity pros to be so hyperbolic; they have to get their articles read. On forums, we don't have that demand and should be able to have a more level-headed discussion about all this.
A conservative and measured approach to seeing the metagame isn't speculation. The entire point of forums is to speculate on what the result of big tournament has on the avg shop to the next big tourney. Saying that we should "be conservative" about anything we say is a little silly given that a forum (hell the internet as a whole) is made for hyperbolic statements. I understand what you are saying about making claims about "best decks and bannable cards" but I'm pretty sure we can speculate on the limited data. For example is anyone really going to say that Nahiri didn't drastically improve jeskai in that meta? Are people underrating decks that have good tribal synergy that aren't merfolk/elves? Sometimes it's fun to make bold predictions and be wrong about them. That is the fun of this website for me.
Some people speculate more effectively and more critically than others. Saying Nahiri makes Jeskai much better is totally fine. That is actually supportable. Saying Tron is dead or control is not viable, however, is problematic. If we had more conversations and predictions in the first category, that would rock. We don't need more in the second and honestly we need less.
Everyone knows what this post is going to say: it's too early to make conclusion about this tournament, let alone the format as a whole, with the extremely limited SCGIndy data we have. A huge reason for that is the so-called Day 2 effect. Decks that make it to Day 2 may do very poorly en route to the Top 32 because of new matches. For instance, maybe you stomp Abzan Company on Day 1 with your Tron deck, over-representing Tron in the initial Day 2 standings. But then you get crushed by all the people who prepared for Tron that you dodged on Day 1 by virtue of a larger field and more randomized matches against more fringe decks. The end result could be a deck with great Day 2 stats getting beaten up before it makes Top 32.
I'm going to keep harping on the "wait and see" mentality because its absence is one of the worst qualities of contemporary Magic, especially in Modern. A prime example of this was the furious outcry by Tron players who claimed their deck was banned and no longer viable because of Eye. Another prime example were the bad metagame and card analysts who assumed Sword's unban would destroy the format and get rid of aggro. The exact opposite predictions have come true so far, and even though the defining GP Weekend hasn't happened yet, it's unlikely these conditions will change too much.
We need to be more conservative and measured in our assessments of formats. It's one thing for clickbaity pros to be so hyperbolic; they have to get their articles read. On forums, we don't have that demand and should be able to have a more level-headed discussion about all this.
A conservative and measured approach to seeing the metagame isn't speculation. The entire point of forums is to speculate on what the result of big tournament has on the avg shop to the next big tourney. Saying that we should "be conservative" about anything we say is a little silly given that a forum (hell the internet as a whole) is made for hyperbolic statements. I understand what you are saying about making claims about "best decks and bannable cards" but I'm pretty sure we can speculate on the limited data. For example is anyone really going to say that Nahiri didn't drastically improve jeskai in that meta? Are people underrating decks that have good tribal synergy that aren't merfolk/elves? Sometimes it's fun to make bold predictions and be wrong about them. That is the fun of this website for me.
Some people speculate more effectively and more critically than others. Saying Nahiri makes Jeskai much better is totally fine. That is actually supportable. Saying Tron is dead or control is not viable, however, is problematic. If we had more conversations and predictions in the first category, that would rock. We don't need more in the second and honestly we need less.
I see and I agree
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
On mtgsalvation people don't want to discuss ideas, so I give people something else to discuss: my controversial opinions.
It was indeed an interesting tournament. I believe that Aggro will come back in full force next weekend in Los Angeles. I predict a lot of Burn, Zoo, and Infect, but also predict Abzan Company will make a comeback as well. Tron is a good choice against Abzan Company and Nahiri bodes poorly for Abzan Company, but it still is a tremendous deck. (I will say that this past week, I tested Nahiri Chord vs. Abzan Company and my Chord won more than I thought it would. Maybe some have figured out that this is a good matchup for Chord?)
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Hopefully people will be satisfied now. One event doesn't say a ton, but at least we know now that control is definitely viable.
I know it's early but I feel like Nahiri may just make Jeskai a mainstay in the tier 1 category like Jund. The deck finally found a faster way to win.
It was the only Jeskai deck of any kind to make top 32 of the three even made day 2, so let's not get ahead of ourselves here. It was a very skilled player piloting a new and relatively unknown list that's awkward to deal with while having some great luck in timely draws (unlike Jim Davis, who played the same list and just missed out on Day 2). Also, being on the play every game 1 of the Top 8 helps too.
Hopefully people will be satisfied now. One event doesn't say a ton, but at least we know now that control is definitely viable.
I know it's early but I feel like Nahiri may just make Jeskai a mainstay in the tier 1 category like Jund. The deck finally found a faster way to win.
It was the only Jeskai deck of any kind to make top 32 of the three even made day 2, so let's not get ahead of ourselves here. It was a very skilled player piloting a new and relatively unknown list that's awkward to deal with while having some great luck in timely draws (unlike Jim Davis, who played the same list and just missed out on Day 2). Also, being on the play every game 1 of the Top 8 helps too.
He was on the play in every match of Top 8 because his decks performed well. Not the other way around.
Hopefully people will be satisfied now. One event doesn't say a ton, but at least we know now that control is definitely viable.
I know it's early but I feel like Nahiri may just make Jeskai a mainstay in the tier 1 category like Jund. The deck finally found a faster way to win.
It was the only Jeskai deck of any kind to make top 32 of the three even made day 2, so let's not get ahead of ourselves here. It was a very skilled player piloting a new and relatively unknown list that's awkward to deal with while having some great luck in timely draws (unlike Jim Davis, who played the same list and just missed out on Day 2). Also, being on the play every game 1 of the Top 8 helps too.
He was on the play in every match of Top 8 because his decks performed well. Not the other way around.
Yeah, but he was the only one. An unknown number of people played it day 1 (though commentary implied "a lot," whatever that means), but only 3 made it to day 2 and none of the others made top 32. That says a lot about the player and his individual circumstances than it does about the deck as a whole.
UWRUWR Delver/Lynx TempoUWR-------UWRUWR Midrange GeistUWR-------UWRUWR Nahiri ControlUWR-------UWRUWR SaheeliUWR
BGRJund / Jund ShadowBGR-------BGWAbzan / Abzan ShadowBGW
Commander (Leviathan/MTGO): UWGeist of Saint TraftUW
Pete Ingram: Jeskai Control
Josh Pellman: RW Control
Dylan Jones: ?
Daniel Hendrickson: RG Valakut
Ryan Overturf: Grixis Delver
Alex Zurawaki: ?
Stephen Dykman: ?
Andrew Jessup: Infect
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
updated missing archetypes in bold
If this is true, we have a very healthy Top 8 META.
Anything, but nothing at the moment...
Modern:
WUBRGAmulet Titan, WUBRGHuman
WUBRAd Nauseam, WBRGDeath Shadow, UBRGScapeshift, UBRGDredge
WURJeskai Nahiri, WURCheeri0s, WBGCounter Company, WRGBurn, UBRMadcap Moon, BRGJund Midrange
UBTurn,BRGriselbrand Reanimator, WGKnight Company, RGRG Tron, RGRG Ponza, XAffinity, XEldrazi Tron
Loving the top 8 list, and it looks like we've got a very nice day 2 breakdown overall as well with quite a bit of diversity. Modern is pulling me back in again.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Cubetutor Peasant'ish-Funbox
Project: Khans of Tarkir Cube (cubetutor)
A conservative and measured approach to seeing the metagame isn't speculation. The entire point of forums is to speculate on what the result of big tournament has on the avg shop to the next big tourney. Saying that we should "be conservative" about anything we say is a little silly given that a forum (hell the internet as a whole) is made for hyperbolic statements. I understand what you are saying about making claims about "best decks and bannable cards" but I'm pretty sure we can speculate on the limited data. For example is anyone really going to say that Nahiri didn't drastically improve jeskai in that meta? Are people underrating decks that have good tribal synergy that aren't merfolk/elves? Sometimes it's fun to make bold predictions and be wrong about them. That is the fun of this website for me.
Decks I'm playing in Modern right now:
URB Grixis Reveler (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-grixis-reveler/)
UB Faeries (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/ub-fae-2/)
UW Azorious Control (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-ojutai-control-2/)
In the yard: RUG Delver, Kiki-Chord, Grixis Twin, Mardu Control, Smallpox, Jeskai Control, Jeskai Delver, Assault Loam, Elves, Deathcloud, Eggs, Storm
Notable Conversion rates to top 32:
4/10 Tron
5/7 Jund
1/6 Scapeshift (including "4 color bring to light" which is a scapeshift deck)
4/5 Infect (including G/B)
1/3 Jeskai Control
2/3 Kiki-Chord
edit: Link is acting oddly on my computer, so here is the url just in case.
http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/deckshow.php?&t[C1]=28&start_date=05/13/2016&end_date=05/15/2016&start=1&finish=32&event_ID=47&city=Indianapolis&limit=32&start_num=0
My H/W list
Control is most definitely not dominating.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
The complete lack of Abzan CoCo in Day 2 is bizarre.
Some people speculate more effectively and more critically than others. Saying Nahiri makes Jeskai much better is totally fine. That is actually supportable. Saying Tron is dead or control is not viable, however, is problematic. If we had more conversations and predictions in the first category, that would rock. We don't need more in the second and honestly we need less.
I see and I agree
Decks I'm playing in Modern right now:
URB Grixis Reveler (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-grixis-reveler/)
UB Faeries (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/ub-fae-2/)
UW Azorious Control (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-ojutai-control-2/)
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Hopefully people will be satisfied now. One event doesn't say a ton, but at least we know now that control is definitely viable.
BGW Junk / URB Grixis Shadow / RGB Lantern Control / WUBCBant Eldrazi
Current Legacy decks
BUG Shardless BUG / UWR Predict Miracles / RUG Canadian Thresh / WRBG 4c Loam
UB Reanimator
I know it's early but I feel like Nahiri may just make Jeskai a mainstay in the tier 1 category like Jund. The deck finally found a faster way to win.
Decks I'm playing in Modern right now:
URB Grixis Reveler (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-grixis-reveler/)
UB Faeries (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/ub-fae-2/)
UW Azorious Control (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-ojutai-control-2/)
It was the only Jeskai deck of any kind to make top 32 of the three even made day 2, so let's not get ahead of ourselves here. It was a very skilled player piloting a new and relatively unknown list that's awkward to deal with while having some great luck in timely draws (unlike Jim Davis, who played the same list and just missed out on Day 2). Also, being on the play every game 1 of the Top 8 helps too.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
He was on the play in every match of Top 8 because his decks performed well. Not the other way around.
Yeah, but he was the only one. An unknown number of people played it day 1 (though commentary implied "a lot," whatever that means), but only 3 made it to day 2 and none of the others made top 32. That says a lot about the player and his individual circumstances than it does about the deck as a whole.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate