Many of the tier 1 modern decks play super greedy mana bases that can easily be exploited by land hate. Right now I feel that land hate is at a low point despite the fact that more and more decks are playing super greedy mana bases. Spreading Seas and Blood Moon are the cards that offer some of the best ways to punish these mana bases. The fact that jund, a deck historically weak to blood moon, placed top 16 with 4 maindeck blood moon tells me that this card is insane in this metagame. (http://www.mtgtop8.com/event?e=13391&d=278579&f=MO)
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On mtgsalvation people don't want to discuss ideas, so I give people something else to discuss: my controversial opinions.
Because if your expensive land hate doesn't immediately shut them down, you just tapped out for them to kill you. Those strategies are better when the slower decks are the ones with greedy land bases.
Because if your expensive land hate doesn't immediately shut them down, you just tapped out for them to kill you. Those strategies are better when the slower decks are the ones with greedy land bases.
In what world is 2/3 mana expensive? These cards have proven to work
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On mtgsalvation people don't want to discuss ideas, so I give people something else to discuss: my controversial opinions.
Because if your expensive land hate doesn't immediately shut them down, you just tapped out for them to kill you. Those strategies are better when the slower decks are the ones with greedy land bases.
In what world is 2/3 mana expensive? These cards have proven to work
A world where infect or death shadow aggro or affinity will kill if you tap out on turn 3.
It's hard to punish the manabase when they've gotten most of the colors they need by turn 3.
that... super linear win out of nowhere decks like these are the main gears that keep lots of strategies from working on modern. YOU NEED to have disruption at turn 3 of your opponents ( so your turn 2) to be able to compete without relying on sheer luck. Sinceyou need to do that, you cannot afford to attack a land at taht turn as your main strategy. If you wait until a turn later... it usually is too slow against all but a few decks.
Because if your expensive land hate doesn't immediately shut them down, you just tapped out for them to kill you. Those strategies are better when the slower decks are the ones with greedy land bases.
In what world is 2/3 mana expensive? These cards have proven to work
A world where infect or death shadow aggro or affinity will kill if you tap out on turn 3.
It's hard to punish the manabase when they've gotten most of the colors they need by turn 3.
I wasn't aware that those decks are the only decks played in modern
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On mtgsalvation people don't want to discuss ideas, so I give people something else to discuss: my controversial opinions.
blood moon is good in the first game against jund and thats about it, i mean next game he will just fetch basic and keep his enchentment hate abrupt decaymaelstrom pulse and after that you're probably losing already.
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english aint my first language
top 5 anime of all time (tv, not books because dragon ball would be first)
I wasn't aware that those decks are the only decks played in modern
Yeah, take a stroll through the tier 1 decks right now. Monastery Swiftspear has to be answered. Glistener Elf has to be answered. 3 Prized Amalgam s have to be answered, Cranial Plating has to be answered. We are pushing every closer to a turn 3 win in modern with the top tier decks or at the very least setting up a board state that will be hard to impossible to answer without turn 2 disruption leading into their turn 3. It pushes to make decks more interactive which is what you are suggesting doing however choosing the wrong thing to interact with can be deadly.
I wasn't aware that those decks are the only decks played in modern
Yeah, take a stroll through the tier 1 decks right now. Monastery Swiftspear has to be answered. Glistener Elf has to be answered. 3 Prized Amalgam s have to be answered, Cranial Plating has to be answered. We are pushing every closer to a turn 3 win in modern with the top tier decks or at the very least setting up a board state that will be hard to impossible to answer without turn 2 disruption leading into their turn 3. It pushes to make decks more interactive which is what you are suggesting doing however choosing the wrong thing to interact with can be deadly.
I play in modern and matchups often don't play out like you said. Often times turns 4-5 are the turns where "you have to do something" to win the game (except against infect). If I'm on the play and I go turn 2 seas your land, that delays a decent amount of decks you listed from going off next turn. Worth noting that it flat out kills inkmoth. Hell, I have seen games that people have lost to seas by itself since it's often followed by a merfolk/geist. There is a reason why merfolk plays it and is in tier 1 itself. There is something there that many aren't seeing.
Just to clarify, I don't think anyone is suggesting
T1: land > go
T2: land > go
T3: land > blood moon > I WIN
Sure you have to interact t1 & t2, and THEN if you can land blood moon on an relatively empty board, you might just win, or at least slow them down so much that you can easily win. The good news is that since you are playing blood moon, you are probably playing bolt, so you will have access to t1 interaction~
Heck, even if you are playing against a Glistener Elf, if he has Inkmoth & Breading Pool (and you are not at 9 poison), it might be better to ignore the elf for a turn, and mana screw him. Infect only runs ~2 forest and 0 islands, if he din't fetch for a forest in advance, he will most likely be unable to cast anything for multiple turns.
And if the players know you are running blood moon and are fetching for basics... that's not free. fetching for basics hurts your manabase, that's why players are usually going for duals. Blood moon is so freaking powerful that it can hurt you opponent's manabase just by being in your deck, you don't even need to cast it!
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"What's your plan?" Gideon asked.
"Are you serious?" Chandra replied.
Are you asking why land hate is at a low point or are you just trying to drive the point home that land hate is great because it works at your local game store?
Are you asking why land hate is at a low point or are you just trying to drive the point home that land hate is great because it works at your local game store?
This is what I'm feeling. Infect is going to shrug and use the spreading seas for distortion strike or one of its other blue spells. Burn will statistically get it's third land or not care if it's blood moon, affinity will shrug at either and tell you to take 6 flying lifelink, dredge isn't going to care, return the troll dredge six, nacromeba, play land blood ghast amalgam amalgam go.
Are you asking why land hate is at a low point or are you just trying to drive the point home that land hate is great because it works at your local game store?
I'm asking why it's not played more. GR Ponza has placed well at tons of tournaments and Merfolk has been tier 1 from the start. Both use these disruption spells to great affect. There has to be more decks that can use them well.
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On mtgsalvation people don't want to discuss ideas, so I give people something else to discuss: my controversial opinions.
Are you asking why land hate is at a low point or are you just trying to drive the point home that land hate is great because it works at your local game store?
This is what I'm feeling. Infect is going to shrug and use the spreading seas for distortion strike or one of its other blue spells. Burn will statistically get it's third land or not care if it's blood moon, affinity will shrug at either and tell you to take 6 flying lifelink, dredge isn't going to care, return the troll dredge six, nacromeba, play land blood ghast amalgam amalgam go.
"burn will statistically get their third land." What are you talking about? Most burn lists run 18 lands. Highly doubt they are getting land 3 on turn 3 on avg.
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On mtgsalvation people don't want to discuss ideas, so I give people something else to discuss: my controversial opinions.
"burn will statistically get their third land." What are you talking about? Most burn lists run 18 lands. Highly doubt they are getting land 3 on turn 3 on avg.
This statement alone shows you are out of touch with the universal standard. Perhaps at your location people are running tier three 18 land mono red burn however tier one naya burn is running 20 lands with some exceptions running 19. My list runs 19. Having played in countless pick up games and a number of tournaments I can tell you that almost all games hit 2 lands and the majority (more than 50%) hit 3 or more within 4 turns. A smart burn player isnt going to keep a one land hand unless the majority of his or her spells costs 1. I've played plenty of games where I will have 3 land in my opening hand.
We haven't even gotten into fetch lands either. I'll run multiple shock land targets and 12 fetches for the very fact that ghost quarter exists which in turn provides excellent strategy against spreading seas in general. If you are first and I play a fetch land pass you won't have a reasonable target unless I crack that during one of your main phases.
"burn will statistically get their third land." What are you talking about? Most burn lists run 18 lands. Highly doubt they are getting land 3 on turn 3 on avg.
This statement alone shows you are out of touch with the universal standard. Perhaps at your location people are running tier three 18 land mono red burn however tier one naya burn is running 20 lands with some exceptions running 19. My list runs 19. Having played in countless pick up games and a number of tournaments I can tell you that almost all games hit 2 lands and the majority (more than 50%) hit 3 or more within 4 turns. A smart burn player isnt going to keep a one land hand unless the majority of his or her spells costs 1. I've played plenty of games where I will have 3 land in my opening hand.
We haven't even gotten into fetch lands either. I'll run multiple shock land targets and 12 fetches for the very fact that ghost quarter exists which in turn provides excellent strategy against spreading seas in general. If you are first and I play a fetch land pass you won't have a reasonable target unless I crack that during one of your main phases.
This comment shows how out of touch you are with mathematics. If you are running 19-20 lands, your chances of hitting your third land drop are less than 50/50. So If I seas your land, you won't be able to cast atakra's/boros charm/nacatl is toned down/etc. That's reality.
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On mtgsalvation people don't want to discuss ideas, so I give people something else to discuss: my controversial opinions.
"burn will statistically get their third land." What are you talking about? Most burn lists run 18 lands. Highly doubt they are getting land 3 on turn 3 on avg.
This statement alone shows you are out of touch with the universal standard. Perhaps at your location people are running tier three 18 land mono red burn however tier one naya burn is running 20 lands with some exceptions running 19. My list runs 19. Having played in countless pick up games and a number of tournaments I can tell you that almost all games hit 2 lands and the majority (more than 50%) hit 3 or more within 4 turns. A smart burn player isnt going to keep a one land hand unless the majority of his or her spells costs 1. I've played plenty of games where I will have 3 land in my opening hand.
We haven't even gotten into fetch lands either. I'll run multiple shock land targets and 12 fetches for the very fact that ghost quarter exists which in turn provides excellent strategy against spreading seas in general. If you are first and I play a fetch land pass you won't have a reasonable target unless I crack that during one of your main phases.
This comment shows how out of touch you are with mathematics. If you are running 19-20 lands, your chances of hitting your third land drop are less than 50/50. So If I seas your land, you won't be able to cast atakra's/boros charm/nacatl is toned down/etc. That's reality.
I would like to see you do the math on this because the odds have been slightly above 50/50 for a 20 land deck every other time I've checked.
Land hate isn't unplayable right now as merfolk demonstrates but you need to be able to back up it with massive board presence like merfolk or other wise make up for the turn you spent not defending yourself.
If you have a slower meta that has lots of greedy manabases then you probably have a wonderful opportunity to blood moon and spreading seas people.
To try and answer the title of the thread I would say that blood moon/seas aren't being played or doing well because of the number of decks that punish you for tapping out and even if you do resolve it and untap a lot of decks can play around it. The number of gitaxian probes also lowers the surprise factor so people can fetch around it. The value of spreading seas/blood moon also diminishes by quite a bit if you aren't on the play and don't get to cut them off their turn 2/3. Blood moon and to a lesser extent seas are also bad top decks in many common situations. The reason that land hate isn't the superstar you would expect right now, given the unbelievable greed in mana bases, is that some decks can punish blood moon harder than blood moon can punish them.
That being said it can be hard for the tier 1 decks to function under blood moon and going for a turn 1 or 2 blood moon or magus can steal plenty of games.
I would like to see you do the math on this because the odds have been slightly above 50/50 for a 20 land deck every other time I've checked.
Land hate isn't unplayable right now as merfolk demonstrates but you need to be able to back up it with massive board presence like merfolk or other wise make up for the turn you spent not defending yourself.
.
If you are on the draw it is HIGHER than 50% in fact. That considering 20 non fetch lands.. its gets a bit annoying to calculate using fetchs. Its roughly 28% of having seen exactly 3 lands.. but you can see MORE than 3 lands as well.
I think perhaps what you arr missing for the original post is the question 'why are you not playing infect/dredge/burn/zoo/afinaty/deatt shadow/8 whack'.
Becauce all of them er tier 1/1,5 and while they can funtion underblood moon they do not want to play it.
My kiki chord deck runs a magus of the moon. He is ok, but no autowinn in any way.
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I have dyslexia, no I am not going to spell check for you, yes you have to live with the horrors of it.
I feel like the card is weaker then you think. There is enough of the meta that can avoid it or not be slowed by it that it's a more narrow tool than you think.
Heck I've beaten skred on the draw with a T1 blood moon as elves. 1 that's embarrassing, 2 the card didn't really slow me down until I drew into Westvale abbey and I lost my plan C? Eh no biggie.
I've also beaten merfolk through all 4 spreading seas. While you take time to tap out and inconvenience me I'll be over here winning the game while I practically goldfish against you for 3-4 rounds.
Now I know this is reading the match and knowing the decks, sideboarding is a huge part of the game after all. I just feel like it hurts a handful of decks and buys you time, but if you lack other disruption and a clock it's not that great. Jund can force a top deck war while screwing your mana - that's good because it runs hyper efficient clocks (goyf). As an elves player if I sat across someone who was on jund with 4 moons in the main, I would rejoice. That's 4 cards that aren't going to be that great against me. I only need 1 basic really. It depends on the meta and the match, and I think there are enough that it's not a great call to bring in more than 2 personally.
I'm talking about elves because that's what I'm most experienced with.
I wasn't aware that those decks are the only decks played in modern
Yeah, take a stroll through the tier 1 decks right now. Monastery Swiftspear has to be answered. Glistener Elf has to be answered. 3 Prized Amalgam s have to be answered, Cranial Plating has to be answered. We are pushing every closer to a turn 3 win in modern with the top tier decks or at the very least setting up a board state that will be hard to impossible to answer without turn 2 disruption leading into their turn 3. It pushes to make decks more interactive which is what you are suggesting doing however choosing the wrong thing to interact with can be deadly.
I play in modern and matchups often don't play out like you said. Often times turns 4-5 are the turns where "you have to do something" to win the game (except against infect). If I'm on the play and I go turn 2 seas your land, that delays a decent amount of decks you listed from going off next turn. Worth noting that it flat out kills inkmoth. Hell, I have seen games that people have lost to seas by itself since it's often followed by a merfolk/geist. There is a reason why merfolk plays it and is in tier 1 itself. There is something there that many aren't seeing.
Merfolk plays spreading seas because it enables islandwalk, and is a low costed land hate. It would absolutely not play it if it were only for the latter effect. Your point about turns 4-5 being the critical ones is missing a fair bit. First off, there are 4 decks in Tier 1 that will not let you get to turn 4 without interaction, unless they lose to mulligans. Affinity, Burn, Infect, Suicide Zoo. In addition Dredge gets 15 power on the board by turn 4 fairly easily if not interacted with, at which point lethal damage is more or less guaranteed. Abzan CoCo is only tier 2 because it's unplayable online, but by turn 4 it will very frequently have the infinite life/infinite damage combo if not interacted with.
Bottom line, attacking mana reserves is just not a solid gameplan. If you think we're *all* wrong, then go out and build a spreading seas land hate deck and spike a tournament.
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Standard: BG Rock
Modern: RW Sun & Moon RBG Dredge RWG Burn
Legacy: W Death & Taxes
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Decks I'm playing in Modern right now:
URB Grixis Reveler (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-grixis-reveler/)
UB Faeries (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/ub-fae-2/)
UW Azorious Control (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-ojutai-control-2/)
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
In what world is 2/3 mana expensive? These cards have proven to work
Decks I'm playing in Modern right now:
URB Grixis Reveler (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-grixis-reveler/)
UB Faeries (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/ub-fae-2/)
UW Azorious Control (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-ojutai-control-2/)
A world where infect or death shadow aggro or affinity will kill if you tap out on turn 3.
It's hard to punish the manabase when they've gotten most of the colors they need by turn 3.
I wasn't aware that those decks are the only decks played in modern
Decks I'm playing in Modern right now:
URB Grixis Reveler (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-grixis-reveler/)
UB Faeries (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/ub-fae-2/)
UW Azorious Control (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-ojutai-control-2/)
top 5 anime of all time (tv, not books because dragon ball would be first)
1. Sword art online 2. Fairy tail 3. Naruto(shipuden) 4. Bleach 5. Claymore
Yeah, take a stroll through the tier 1 decks right now. Monastery Swiftspear has to be answered. Glistener Elf has to be answered. 3 Prized Amalgam s have to be answered, Cranial Plating has to be answered. We are pushing every closer to a turn 3 win in modern with the top tier decks or at the very least setting up a board state that will be hard to impossible to answer without turn 2 disruption leading into their turn 3. It pushes to make decks more interactive which is what you are suggesting doing however choosing the wrong thing to interact with can be deadly.
RGWNaya BurnRGW+++RGWKiki ComboRGW
UGInfectUG+++++++++.++++++++UGMerfolkUG
GGNykthos WaveGG++++++++++GGStompyGG
BRVampiresBR+++++++.+++++++BRGoblinsBR
WGBogglesWG+++++++++++++CRSkred RedCR
UBRGDredgeUBRG++++++++++BB8 RackBB
URWJeskaiURW+++.++UBRGrixis DelverUBR
URStormUR++++++++UWGBant CompanyUWG
WUBRGHumansWUBRG+CCEldrazi TronCC
I play in modern and matchups often don't play out like you said. Often times turns 4-5 are the turns where "you have to do something" to win the game (except against infect). If I'm on the play and I go turn 2 seas your land, that delays a decent amount of decks you listed from going off next turn. Worth noting that it flat out kills inkmoth. Hell, I have seen games that people have lost to seas by itself since it's often followed by a merfolk/geist. There is a reason why merfolk plays it and is in tier 1 itself. There is something there that many aren't seeing.
Decks I'm playing in Modern right now:
URB Grixis Reveler (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-grixis-reveler/)
UB Faeries (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/ub-fae-2/)
UW Azorious Control (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-ojutai-control-2/)
T1: land > go
T2: land > go
T3: land > blood moon > I WIN
Sure you have to interact t1 & t2, and THEN if you can land blood moon on an relatively empty board, you might just win, or at least slow them down so much that you can easily win. The good news is that since you are playing blood moon, you are probably playing bolt, so you will have access to t1 interaction~
Heck, even if you are playing against a Glistener Elf, if he has Inkmoth & Breading Pool (and you are not at 9 poison), it might be better to ignore the elf for a turn, and mana screw him. Infect only runs ~2 forest and 0 islands, if he din't fetch for a forest in advance, he will most likely be unable to cast anything for multiple turns.
And if the players know you are running blood moon and are fetching for basics... that's not free. fetching for basics hurts your manabase, that's why players are usually going for duals. Blood moon is so freaking powerful that it can hurt you opponent's manabase just by being in your deck, you don't even need to cast it!
"Are you serious?" Chandra replied.
Abzan Traverse / Traverse Shadow / UR Kiki
This is what I'm feeling. Infect is going to shrug and use the spreading seas for distortion strike or one of its other blue spells. Burn will statistically get it's third land or not care if it's blood moon, affinity will shrug at either and tell you to take 6 flying lifelink, dredge isn't going to care, return the troll dredge six, nacromeba, play land blood ghast amalgam amalgam go.
RGWNaya BurnRGW+++RGWKiki ComboRGW
UGInfectUG+++++++++.++++++++UGMerfolkUG
GGNykthos WaveGG++++++++++GGStompyGG
BRVampiresBR+++++++.+++++++BRGoblinsBR
WGBogglesWG+++++++++++++CRSkred RedCR
UBRGDredgeUBRG++++++++++BB8 RackBB
URWJeskaiURW+++.++UBRGrixis DelverUBR
URStormUR++++++++UWGBant CompanyUWG
WUBRGHumansWUBRG+CCEldrazi TronCC
I'm asking why it's not played more. GR Ponza has placed well at tons of tournaments and Merfolk has been tier 1 from the start. Both use these disruption spells to great affect. There has to be more decks that can use them well.
Decks I'm playing in Modern right now:
URB Grixis Reveler (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-grixis-reveler/)
UB Faeries (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/ub-fae-2/)
UW Azorious Control (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-ojutai-control-2/)
"burn will statistically get their third land." What are you talking about? Most burn lists run 18 lands. Highly doubt they are getting land 3 on turn 3 on avg.
Decks I'm playing in Modern right now:
URB Grixis Reveler (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-grixis-reveler/)
UB Faeries (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/ub-fae-2/)
UW Azorious Control (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-ojutai-control-2/)
This statement alone shows you are out of touch with the universal standard. Perhaps at your location people are running tier three 18 land mono red burn however tier one naya burn is running 20 lands with some exceptions running 19. My list runs 19. Having played in countless pick up games and a number of tournaments I can tell you that almost all games hit 2 lands and the majority (more than 50%) hit 3 or more within 4 turns. A smart burn player isnt going to keep a one land hand unless the majority of his or her spells costs 1. I've played plenty of games where I will have 3 land in my opening hand.
We haven't even gotten into fetch lands either. I'll run multiple shock land targets and 12 fetches for the very fact that ghost quarter exists which in turn provides excellent strategy against spreading seas in general. If you are first and I play a fetch land pass you won't have a reasonable target unless I crack that during one of your main phases.
RGWNaya BurnRGW+++RGWKiki ComboRGW
UGInfectUG+++++++++.++++++++UGMerfolkUG
GGNykthos WaveGG++++++++++GGStompyGG
BRVampiresBR+++++++.+++++++BRGoblinsBR
WGBogglesWG+++++++++++++CRSkred RedCR
UBRGDredgeUBRG++++++++++BB8 RackBB
URWJeskaiURW+++.++UBRGrixis DelverUBR
URStormUR++++++++UWGBant CompanyUWG
WUBRGHumansWUBRG+CCEldrazi TronCC
This comment shows how out of touch you are with mathematics. If you are running 19-20 lands, your chances of hitting your third land drop are less than 50/50. So If I seas your land, you won't be able to cast atakra's/boros charm/nacatl is toned down/etc. That's reality.
Decks I'm playing in Modern right now:
URB Grixis Reveler (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-grixis-reveler/)
UB Faeries (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/ub-fae-2/)
UW Azorious Control (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-ojutai-control-2/)
I would like to see you do the math on this because the odds have been slightly above 50/50 for a 20 land deck every other time I've checked.
Land hate isn't unplayable right now as merfolk demonstrates but you need to be able to back up it with massive board presence like merfolk or other wise make up for the turn you spent not defending yourself.
If you have a slower meta that has lots of greedy manabases then you probably have a wonderful opportunity to blood moon and spreading seas people.
To try and answer the title of the thread I would say that blood moon/seas aren't being played or doing well because of the number of decks that punish you for tapping out and even if you do resolve it and untap a lot of decks can play around it. The number of gitaxian probes also lowers the surprise factor so people can fetch around it. The value of spreading seas/blood moon also diminishes by quite a bit if you aren't on the play and don't get to cut them off their turn 2/3. Blood moon and to a lesser extent seas are also bad top decks in many common situations. The reason that land hate isn't the superstar you would expect right now, given the unbelievable greed in mana bases, is that some decks can punish blood moon harder than blood moon can punish them.
That being said it can be hard for the tier 1 decks to function under blood moon and going for a turn 1 or 2 blood moon or magus can steal plenty of games.
If you are on the draw it is HIGHER than 50% in fact. That considering 20 non fetch lands.. its gets a bit annoying to calculate using fetchs. Its roughly 28% of having seen exactly 3 lands.. but you can see MORE than 3 lands as well.
But on the spreading sea thread? Nah burn doesn't care about spreading sea! why would we?
"Are you serious?" Chandra replied.
Becauce all of them er tier 1/1,5 and while they can funtion underblood moon they do not want to play it.
My kiki chord deck runs a magus of the moon. He is ok, but no autowinn in any way.
this, blood moon shut down jund most feared match up: tron.
I remember old extended when destructive flow was a great deck, blood moon is godly against some deck, but meh to the meta in general (fast decks)
Heck I've beaten skred on the draw with a T1 blood moon as elves. 1 that's embarrassing, 2 the card didn't really slow me down until I drew into Westvale abbey and I lost my plan C? Eh no biggie.
I've also beaten merfolk through all 4 spreading seas. While you take time to tap out and inconvenience me I'll be over here winning the game while I practically goldfish against you for 3-4 rounds.
Now I know this is reading the match and knowing the decks, sideboarding is a huge part of the game after all. I just feel like it hurts a handful of decks and buys you time, but if you lack other disruption and a clock it's not that great. Jund can force a top deck war while screwing your mana - that's good because it runs hyper efficient clocks (goyf). As an elves player if I sat across someone who was on jund with 4 moons in the main, I would rejoice. That's 4 cards that aren't going to be that great against me. I only need 1 basic really. It depends on the meta and the match, and I think there are enough that it's not a great call to bring in more than 2 personally.
I'm talking about elves because that's what I'm most experienced with.
Merfolk plays spreading seas because it enables islandwalk, and is a low costed land hate. It would absolutely not play it if it were only for the latter effect. Your point about turns 4-5 being the critical ones is missing a fair bit. First off, there are 4 decks in Tier 1 that will not let you get to turn 4 without interaction, unless they lose to mulligans. Affinity, Burn, Infect, Suicide Zoo. In addition Dredge gets 15 power on the board by turn 4 fairly easily if not interacted with, at which point lethal damage is more or less guaranteed. Abzan CoCo is only tier 2 because it's unplayable online, but by turn 4 it will very frequently have the infinite life/infinite damage combo if not interacted with.
Bottom line, attacking mana reserves is just not a solid gameplan. If you think we're *all* wrong, then go out and build a spreading seas land hate deck and spike a tournament.
BG Rock
Modern:
RW Sun & Moon
RBG Dredge
RWG Burn
Legacy:
W Death & Taxes