The tempo gain has been too much in my experience with Colonnade, and it seems like these cards have suddenly become significantly worse. Not only is the card very effective when played, but even the threat of the tempo blowout makes it hard to justify activating when the opponent isn't hellbent.
What has your experience been with the creature-lands in a push-legal meta?
I'm starting to wonder if these popular creature lands are going to start getting cut. Do others feel the same way? Or should decks start to move more towards mutalvault/blinkmoth nexus?
Am I overstating the effect? Should Celestial Colonnade continue to close out games for UW control while Raging Ravine keeps right on high-fiving Bob in Jund?
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KnightfallGWUR
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Fatal Push is absolutely an issue that needs to be addressed by the decks running creature lands, but it's not the end all be all. Lightning Bolt and Path to Exile already hit almost all of the creature lands and the issue of Path giving a land isn't a terrible downside given you are getting rid of one already. The more pervasive Fatal Push becomes the worse manlands become, but the opportunity cost is low enough that they'll still be run. When you go to sideboard against UWx whose only creatures are Celestial Colonnade and Snapcaster Mage are you really going to keep in Fatal Push?
UWx Control already has big problems keeping the first Celestial Colonnade alive against decks like Jund (which is nigh-guaranteed to Terminate the first one against a deck that threat-light). I don't think UWx Control can afford to drop it for other colour-fixing lands, as it's already pretty threat-light.
From my experience, I don't believe Fatal Push will make manland counts go down or drift away from colour-fixing, expensive ones. It's pretty good tempo gain against manlands, but so is every other removal spell that costs 2 mana or less and can hit manlands. The biggest things Fatal Push will likely do, IMO, are increase the manland-hitting removal count of BWx decks (such as BW Tokens and the I'm-already-seeing-this-happen-in Esper Control) and make UB(g) decks more viable.
Speaking as the primer maintainer for the esper draw-go thread: No, fatal push doesn't stop us from playing colonnades.
The grindy/slow matchups weren't about bashing in with the first colonnade to begin with. Despite our best efforts, Jund could often kill the first colonnade. fatal push is not going to significantly increase the removal count that BGx decks play, and it's not going to significantly increase the removal count in grixis either. In both of those matchups, creature land activations are a thing that mostly starts happening once all of the other resources have been exhausted, either by an upticking liliana of the veil, or by some other method (esper charm in mind-rot mode clears the way for us to start colonnade beatdown). Where it does impact us is in matchups where colonnade sometimes goes on blocking duty starting on turn six; in those matchups, it doesn't matter if it was a pump spell, a path, a pair of bolts, an electrolyze + snapcaster being blocked, or standing in front of a tasigur--If the colonnade is being fired up that early in the game, the expectation is that it's probably going to die and buy time anyway.
I don't know if this makes creeping tar pit any worse for grixis, since I'm not as familiar with the play patterns of that deck in the matchups where fatal push is a new replacement, but I would hazard a guess that since tarpit dies to a stiff breeze, it probably doesn't really change things there either.
Most of the time, at the point in the game where creature lands start activating, tempo is irrelevant and it's more about card advantage/card quality.
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i was also wondering this as well. im glad to see people think that the manlands wont be too hurt by fatal push. makes me more confident in investing in some if i need to.
The played manland suite that was already killed by Lightning Bolt and Path to Exile include: Creeping Tar Pit, Hissing Quagmire, Treetop Village with conditional times for Blinkmoth Nexus/Inkmoth Nexus (Affinity can put counters on these to dodge), Mutavault (with less than 2 lords in Merfolk), Raging Ravine (when attacking the first time). The only land not killed by Lightning Bolt at some point is Celestial Colonnade and in a control deck without many creature targets already the removal will be held for Colonade regardless as it is often the win-condition. Fatal push does hit all of these, but it is the difference of it being a Terminate or Path to Exile, etc... I can see decks that normally have problems removing manlands having an easier time now but they will be being removed just as much as they always have been. A threatening creature is going to get hit by removal or you will win the game.
Not necessarily. For a while, some of us in the esper thread played 5 creature lands--adding a tar pit to the set of colonnades, or some of them a shambling vents. For the most part, we found that it was too much of a critical mass of CIPT lands to keep up in the modern format, even against decks like Jund and Abzan where we thought we wanted the extras in the first place. And remember, we're the 26 land control deck--if we can't find space for five, how are you fitting more than 2 or 3 CIPT lands in your 22-24 land deck? The most I can imagine is some grixis control variants going up to a full four creature lands (probably split between tar pit and fumarole). Jund with 4 ravines is already pushing the CIPT count for that style of manabase, and Abzan ain't far behind with their new toy either. As far as the other creature lands go (mutavault, inkmoth, blinkmoth), they're going to remain relevant in the decks they're relevant in, which were already playing 4 of each relevant creature land anyway, so you can't increase those numbers.
Now, do I think it makes creature lands easier to kill out of some of those decks? Oh yes. It's another well-deserved kick in the teeth for affinity and infect. But it isn't going to increase the number of creature lands they play.
what MIGHT see more play are ghost quarter and tectonic edge, because in grindy games creature lands become more relevant, 4+ mana cards become more relevant, so people need to add lands to their decks while still minimizing the chance of flooding out, which leads to adding utility lands. This might make creature lands slightly worse overall, if anything.
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EDH: Sidisi turn-3 storm
I think people will actually explore playing MORE manlands since Fatal Push helps slow down the format.
Does my thinking make any sense? Or am I looking into it too deeply?
I was thinking the same thing, that decks would be more likely to play a manland in a slower format. CIPT isn't as crippling if the pressure on your mana is lessened in the first turns.
I could also see manlands going up in play since other threats are more likely to be removed and a back up threat might be necessary. Ideally it would be one more resilient to removal but the cost of adding another threat that isn't a mana source might be too much.
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The tempo gain has been too much in my experience with Colonnade, and it seems like these cards have suddenly become significantly worse. Not only is the card very effective when played, but even the threat of the tempo blowout makes it hard to justify activating when the opponent isn't hellbent.
What has your experience been with the creature-lands in a push-legal meta?
I'm starting to wonder if these popular creature lands are going to start getting cut. Do others feel the same way? Or should decks start to move more towards mutalvault/blinkmoth nexus?
Am I overstating the effect? Should Celestial Colonnade continue to close out games for UW control while Raging Ravine keeps right on high-fiving Bob in Jund?
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
UWx Control already has big problems keeping the first Celestial Colonnade alive against decks like Jund (which is nigh-guaranteed to Terminate the first one against a deck that threat-light). I don't think UWx Control can afford to drop it for other colour-fixing lands, as it's already pretty threat-light.
From my experience, I don't believe Fatal Push will make manland counts go down or drift away from colour-fixing, expensive ones. It's pretty good tempo gain against manlands, but so is every other removal spell that costs 2 mana or less and can hit manlands. The biggest things Fatal Push will likely do, IMO, are increase the manland-hitting removal count of BWx decks (such as BW Tokens and the I'm-already-seeing-this-happen-in Esper Control) and make UB(g) decks more viable.
The grindy/slow matchups weren't about bashing in with the first colonnade to begin with. Despite our best efforts, Jund could often kill the first colonnade. fatal push is not going to significantly increase the removal count that BGx decks play, and it's not going to significantly increase the removal count in grixis either. In both of those matchups, creature land activations are a thing that mostly starts happening once all of the other resources have been exhausted, either by an upticking liliana of the veil, or by some other method (esper charm in mind-rot mode clears the way for us to start colonnade beatdown). Where it does impact us is in matchups where colonnade sometimes goes on blocking duty starting on turn six; in those matchups, it doesn't matter if it was a pump spell, a path, a pair of bolts, an electrolyze + snapcaster being blocked, or standing in front of a tasigur--If the colonnade is being fired up that early in the game, the expectation is that it's probably going to die and buy time anyway.
I don't know if this makes creeping tar pit any worse for grixis, since I'm not as familiar with the play patterns of that deck in the matchups where fatal push is a new replacement, but I would hazard a guess that since tarpit dies to a stiff breeze, it probably doesn't really change things there either.
Most of the time, at the point in the game where creature lands start activating, tempo is irrelevant and it's more about card advantage/card quality.
Yes, I am a local area mod.WELP. GOOD LIFE CHANGES ALL HAPPEN AT ONCE AND SOME ARE MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVEPrimary Decks:
Modern: Esper Draw-Go
Legacy: RUG Lands
EDH: Sidisi turn-3 storm
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Does my thinking make any sense? Or am I looking into it too deeply?
Now, do I think it makes creature lands easier to kill out of some of those decks? Oh yes. It's another well-deserved kick in the teeth for affinity and infect. But it isn't going to increase the number of creature lands they play.
what MIGHT see more play are ghost quarter and tectonic edge, because in grindy games creature lands become more relevant, 4+ mana cards become more relevant, so people need to add lands to their decks while still minimizing the chance of flooding out, which leads to adding utility lands. This might make creature lands slightly worse overall, if anything.
Yes, I am a local area mod.WELP. GOOD LIFE CHANGES ALL HAPPEN AT ONCE AND SOME ARE MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVEPrimary Decks:
Modern: Esper Draw-Go
Legacy: RUG Lands
EDH: Sidisi turn-3 storm
I was thinking the same thing, that decks would be more likely to play a manland in a slower format. CIPT isn't as crippling if the pressure on your mana is lessened in the first turns.
I could also see manlands going up in play since other threats are more likely to be removed and a back up threat might be necessary. Ideally it would be one more resilient to removal but the cost of adding another threat that isn't a mana source might be too much.