These Modern... Messiah? Maestro? packs will be $10 just like before because there's a precedent that they can charge that much. Modern is one of wizards top formats and they would want to maximize any value they can get out of it.
Also having cards like Counterspell potentially be in the set seems a little loose. I hope that I'm wrong but, if they wanted to reprint things to make them legal for modern... Why wouldn't they just put it in a Modern Masters set?
I think the chance for cards designed specifically for modern is a cool idea, plus if this product happens, modern will be essentially on sale for a while.
I'm optimistic to see what this product looks like if it is real
These Modern... Messiah? Maestro? packs will be $10 just like before because there's a precedent that they can charge that much. Modern is one of wizards top formats and they would want to maximize any value they can get out of it.
Also having cards like Counterspell potentially be in the set seems a little loose. I hope that I'm wrong but, if they wanted to reprint things to make them legal for modern... Why wouldn't they just put it in a Modern Masters set?
I think the chance for cards designed specifically for modern is a cool idea, plus if this product happens, modern will be essentially on sale for a while.
I'm optimistic to see what this product looks like if it is real
Modern masters was a reprint only set. The reason they charged 10 dollars a pack was because of the fact that the value of the contents was known. It's hard to explain this in detail, but they would not sell 10 dollar packs if half the cards are new to modern, or just new period.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I imagine this set would be more like Battlebond or Conspiracy than a true Masters set (which will still be printed as a separate product). It will be comprised of three types of cards:
1. Reprints of Modern-legal cards
2. Reprints of cards from eternal formats which had never previously been Modern legal
3. Entirely new cards
For the first category, there needs to be enough here to help establish equity and give the set legs. There are enough cards in Modern that need reprinted to not worry about a set like this undercutting much of the secondary market. That said, don't expect to see many cards north of $50 here; they don't want to invalidate Masters sets and sales. I'd expect more cards like Fatal Push and K-Command than EE and Hierarch.
The second category is what really excites a lot of us, but we need to be realistic with expectations here. You are almost certainly not going to see Legacy staples that would provide huge boosts to existing deck types. Price of Progress, Wasteland, Force of Will...these cards are far riskier to the health of the Modern format than build-arounds like Astral Slide, or borderline utility cards like Pillage. The range here is huge, but still enough of an x-factor to not justify a premium pack price.
The third category is the scariest because it represents the unknown. One bad guess could be enough to break the format...but I have enough faith in Wizards to want to see this happen, even if only once. Financially, there will probably be some pushed cards at various levels, but even then, it's hard to guarantee enough to justify $10 packs.
Going by the new click bait product lines WoTC is releasing, I'd imagine that the set will have a mix of standard legal cards, current modern cards, and a few new cards or legacy cards they want to bring into modern. They are very big on making sure standard is as dirt cheap as possible, which is probably going to tank a few unsuspecting LGS locations. Ghalta just got reprinted again, so that makes a promo, a standard set, a reprint in spell slingers, and now a reprint in the new Game Nights box. Basically, it's this years version of the Explorers of Ixalan thing that all the stores and distributors are still stuck with like the old challenger decks.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Modern only boosters? You mean like Modern Masters?
more than that. modern masters was only reprints. this is the possibility of getting cards into the format that are non-legal reprints, or newly designed cards; without having the restriction of going through standard first.
its a novel idea that has been around in one form or another since forever. wizards has clearly been rethinking their strategies for different products, but to be frank i dont see this ever happening. just too many hoops to jump through and risks incurred.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
Wizards recognizes the sales potential of a product aimed primarily at the player base of a very popular format.
They recognize that the buzz and excitement of new cards for that format will sell product.
They realize that printing new cards, as well as reprinting some cards which hadn't been format legal, will help raise and maintain equity better than a set exclusively comprised of already-legal reprints.
As a safety valve to establish a decent EV floor, there will be reprints of existing Modern cards, but they will only be a portion of the product, unlike Masters sets.
This set is going to happen; it's just a question of how soon, because there's money to be had.
how can you be so sure? i think something is going to be done in the next year or so to alleviate card availability issues, but it doesnt necessarily need to be this specific kind of product.
i agree that wizards probably recognizes that modern is their most popular constructed format (no source, just speculation), and that they would look for ways to tap into that. even still the buzz and excitement of new cards, or certain reprints, is already something that happens with standard sets.
there hasnt been a specialized set for a non-standard constructed format before (sans commander). direct support for a format that isnt their flagship might run counter to their long term goals. even if it doesnt, the community might take it that way; which could also be detrimental.
to some degree similar products compete with eachtother. they would have to bank on box sales for a market that is entrenched in buying singles. then the ones who are convinced to buy boxes would have to be those who werent already buying boxes of another set (likely standard, but maybe whatever the next masters set is).
although its minor, it would also be the first and only special set with modern legality. which is just one more thing that might confuse newer players, both to the format and in general.
next the development of the set would be costly. as pointed out, this wouldnt likely be a $10 booster set, meaning less return on sales. to get the appropriate volume of supply out for entirely new cards, it means a fairly large print run. then if you assume that specialty sets require a small dedicated development team, then this product would also need one. this team would have the momentous task of designing a set that can be drafted to some degree (its boosters after all), has valuable legal-reprints, has balanced yet influential non-legal reprints, and balanced yet influential new cards.
-requires more resources
-less return per pack (to cover costs)
-less able to predict demand
-less predictable market response
-more demanding product requirements
in short its likely going to cost more to develop and produce than a set like battlebond, conspiracy, or even modern masters. with lower pack price you would be incurring a risk on two fronts if the product failed to sell as well as predicted. not to mention the less direct risks after the fact if the format ends up being worse off.
TLDR: a modern only booster set could be a gold mine if done right; which isnt impossible. however since it would have both a higher upfront cost and higher risk for failure, i cant see the project getting past the initial pitch.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
how can you be so sure? i think something is going to be done in the next year or so to alleviate card availability issues, but it doesnt necessarily need to be this specific kind of product.
i agree that wizards probably recognizes that modern is their most popular constructed format (no source, just speculation), and that they would look for ways to tap into that. even still the buzz and excitement of new cards, or certain reprints, is already something that happens with standard sets.
As a Modern player, imagine the level of excitement about the possibility, just once, for some old favorites and new blood specific to our format. For me, and for many of my Modern contemporaries, this sort of set would actually get us more interested in those packs than the average Standard set. As you've agreed, Modern is at least very popular, if not the most popular format, and Wizards surely sees the potential value in attempting to market to and capitalize on this.
there hasnt been a specialized set for a non-standard constructed format before (sans commander). direct support for a format that isnt their flagship might run counter to their long term goals. even if it doesnt, the community might take it that way; which could also be detrimental.
The Masters sets should count, but particularly with Modern, there's a lot of market potential here. Their primary long-term goal is to grow and maintain their business, and a novel product aimed squarely at an undercapitalized and popular format has a good shot of doing that. In the off-chance it ends up being a dud, they simply don't revisit the idea. Do you really think a set like this would do worse than other supplemental sets they've experimented with, like Conspiracy or Battlebond?
to some degree similar products compete with eachtother. they would have to bank on box sales for a market that is entrenched in buying singles. then the ones who are convinced to buy boxes would have to be those who werent already buying boxes of another set (likely standard, but maybe whatever the next masters set is).
This wouldn't compete with product any more than any of the other supplemental sets they release once or twice a year. Reprinting some Modern staples would easily help keep the EV floor high enough to build confidence for collectors and investors, and again, you're already looking at a product that targets the market of arguably the most popular format (as opposed to unique takes on Limited formats that can end up being spec busts later by virtue). Most of us will still buy the singles we always do, so printing new cards and reprinting old favorites gives equity to those cards. This leads to good set value, so everyone benefits a bit.
although its minor, it would also be the first and only special set with modern legality. which is just one more thing that might confuse newer players, both to the format and in general.
If the set's main draw is that all of the included cards will be Modern legal, I don't think we have much to worry about there. It wouldn't be more confusing for Standard players than any other eternal-targeted supplemental set. Most Modern players don't begin Magic in that format, but for the handful that do, I'll bet that the possibility of exciting both newer and veteran players outweighs this risk (and again, the main draw of this set is the format legality, so there's not much to be confused about).
next the development of the set would be costly. as pointed out, this wouldnt likely be a $10 booster set, meaning less return on sales. to get the appropriate volume of supply out for entirely new cards, it means a fairly large print run. then if you assume that specialty sets require a small dedicated development team, then this product would also need one. this team would have the momentous task of designing a set that can be drafted to some degree (its boosters after all), has valuable legal-reprints, has balanced yet influential non-legal reprints, and balanced yet influential new cards.
-requires more resources
-less return per pack (to cover costs)
-less able to predict demand
-less predictable market response
-more demanding product requirements
You're assuming too much here. Remember, Wizards cranks sets like this out at least once per year, so it's not a stretch to think that a set aimed squarely at arguably the most popular format wouldn't sell at least as well. Of your five listed points, only the last one is realistic, and even then only to the extent that they need to actually pay attention to the format enough to not shortsightedly cripple it. You're right that design and development efforts will need to be involved, and to tread with care, but this doesn't necessarily translate to significant enough costs to outweigh the sales potential of such a novel product. They've done this with plants for Legacy and Vintage more than once in the past, and with the new design team structure and experience, I'm confident they can do at least a decent job with Modern.
in short its likely going to cost more to develop and produce than a set like battlebond, conspiracy, or even modern masters. with lower pack price you would be incurring a risk on two fronts if the product failed to sell as well as predicted. not to mention the less direct risks after the fact if the format ends up being worse off.
TLDR: a modern only booster set could be a gold mine if done right; which isnt impossible. however since it would have both a higher upfront cost and higher risk for failure, i cant see the project getting past the initial pitch.
Though your conclusions here aren't impossible, this really just comes off as doomsaying. The fact that Wizards is doing market research on this exact product, coupled with the realization that they really do test things out for the format (refer to the unbanning announcement of JtMS and BBE, as well as the no changes one that preceded it)? Couple this with the fact that they now have a Play Design team very experienced with Modern, and most of your concerns seem to be manageable. This format is not only ripe to market toward, but by virtue of it having so many in-demand reprint options, it would be easy to make a set that holds long term EV as well, so both players and investor/collector types win. Heck, they could be really safe and plant a rare cycle of lands (think enemy fetches or WWK manlands), because they can't get reprinted often enough even with two Masters sets a year. Either way...there's so much potential here, and signs that this is coming.
The only barrier I see to this idea of a conspiracy or battlebond set that is modern focused is the business itself. The idea of duel decks was pretty good hypothetically, but because of the market conditions resulting in wide spread arbitrage and scalping, they ended up creating worse and worse versions of it as time went on. Honestly, I blame scalping and arbitrage for why we got to where we are, since the local game stores seem to be suffering a slow heat death that Blockbuster and the video rental industry went through. It's sort of on a life support system out of necessity right now, as there is no way the card games industry or Roleplaying Game industry could survive without the stores.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
If (when) it does happen, I'm wondering what the MSRP will be. This is about the closest thing we will get to Modern Masters, so I'd be surprised if they don't charge the $10 per booster for such a set. Enemy fetches are in need of another reprint, and it's not like Wizards/Hasbro to undercapitalize on these things. This would establish good base equity, and help maintain it for the other included cards.
I also wonder how much would be printed, but of course this is far less important than the set contents.
Interesting. My guess is $15 a pack with some real winners in there. I hope that some tools like Counterspell, Containment Priest, Baleful Strix, and many more can make it into Modern. I would love to try Edric, Spymaster of Trest no matter how bad it is!
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
I sure hope they do this. Containment Priest would be swell in this format, and there are plenty of needed reprints. Plus it would allow them to design good cards for us without having to jump through the Standard hoops.
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I can't say I'm pleased to see you and must warn you I may have to do something about it.
EDH: UGEdric
Pauper: URDelver
Modern: UGRDelver
Draft my cube: Eric's 390 Unpowered
Yes it can. I'm crossing my fingers it's not, lol. But I also realize that the Casual crowd is what keeps Magic alive and thriving.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
It well could be, honestly. We have two things to look at regarding this fresh take on supplemental sets: the poll Wizards did last year regarding cards newly legal to Modern that bypass Standard (see thread OP), and the fact that Commander sets as they exist always sell well (despite the drop in card value coupled with the lack of notable reprints in 2018).
Though a Commander overhaul might be possible, I think that Wizards won't risk revamping such a successful product, and there haven't been any indications they have considered this. They have been considering the new-to-Modern supplemental set, though, and since we know the Masters sets are done as we knew them, I feel this set is much more likely than something Commander focused.
I think there's a few things that will be problematic with the idea of a modern only product, though. If it is a randomized booster, than it is usually made with draft in mind, hence any booster pack product they make for modern is effectively a masters set. If the product is a preconstructed one, how expensive would they have to make it to include notable cards like Cavern of Souls, Liliana of the Veil, and other heavy hitters? I could see them making a modern oriented constructed offering, but it's not going to include the cards people really need to complete their decks. Most people are stuck on the most expensive pieces in modern, not the optional niche cards.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I mean I would welcome the possibility of getting cards into Modern that circumvent Standard. Things like Baleful Strix or Swords to Plowshares might be fine in Modern but they surely would not be fine in Standard and that has always been a bottleneck.
I think there's a few things that will be problematic with the idea of a modern only product, though. If it is a randomized booster, than it is usually made with draft in mind, hence any booster pack product they make for modern is effectively a masters set. If the product is a preconstructed one, how expensive would they have to make it to include notable cards like Cavern of Souls, Liliana of the Veil, and other heavy hitters? I could see them making a modern oriented constructed offering, but it's not going to include the cards people really need to complete their decks. Most people are stuck on the most expensive pieces in modern, not the optional niche cards.
Well they did just reprint the cards you mentioned, but I get your point about reprinting needed expensive format staples. My guess is that we'll see something closer to what Modern Masters 2017 was, but padded with all sorts of fun older cards and a few fresh ideas. The enemy fetchlands are the obvious plants to establish a baseline, and we'll likely see a few more in-demand reprints for the same reason, but mostly we'll get older reprints and new cards that would be a bit too much for Standard.
This is one area the community here has put forth many great ideas for. Think more along the cards that wouldn't immediately slot into top-tier decks; stuff like Pillage and Terravore for Ponza would be fantastic, even if they don't push the deck to be best in the format. Utility cards and answers, especially of CMC 3 or greater, are more reasonable for Modern's speed and precedent. Heck, I'm primarily a Gx Tron player, and I'd still love to see cards like Recoil and Vindicate make it into Modern. Build-arounds like Astral Slide would also be fun to have, even if just to get brewers going to relive some nostalgia for awhile.
What I wouldn't expect? Cards that define Legacy formats that are clearly above curve, like Wasteland and Force of Will, are the riskiest for the stability of Modern. For similar reasons, I'd not hold my breath for any good rituals/mana rocks, cantrips, tutors, or cheap discard. Similarly, anything that can break the game open like Zuran Orb doesn't belong in Modern. I wouldn't expect many cards more valuable than Containment Priest or Baleful Strix either, as that's about as risky as Wizards should get on reprints; the set value should be held up by existing staples in need of reprint, as you've noted. (Stoneforge Mystic and Batterskull would work though!)
2. Reprints of cards from eternal formats which had never previously been Modern legal
3. Entirely new cards
I'm looking forward to these two kinds of cards from Modern only sets.
The entire point of this thread is that Wizards polled specifically about a supplemental set that introduces cards into Modern without having them in a Standard-legal set first. This wouldn't be a Modern (or any other) Masters set, as those sets are reprints only and do not change legality for formats (other than Pauper). Coupled with the fact that MaRo recently blogged about a supplemental set that will be "paving new ground" this year, there's a decent chance that we might get such a set this year.
Things I'd hope for entering Modern from sets like this:
I'd hope for Containment Priest or maybe a non-human variant on it to avoid more human tribal power ups.
Wall of Blossoms, as well as a blue variant on that theme (Blossoms, Wall of Omens) possibly with flying/reach as an extra since defensive creatures and card draw are already both in blue's color pie (whereas card draw isn't as much in white's, and defensive creatures isn't as much in green's).
Counterspell and/or a counter that counters things 3 cmc or less. If not counterspell, then I'd expect the 3 cmc or less targeting one to be UU, if both, then I'd expect the cmc 3 or less one to be 1U.
Blue and White's versions of pushed 1 drop prowess creatures to go along with Monastery Swiftspear, blue's focused towards tempo, and white's probably focused towards white weenie.
Some more strong blue 'removal' along the lines of transformation effects that result in the target getting exiled (not just destroyed) and the opponent getting tokens in it's place, or auras that turn a creature into something else while it's enchanted, either or both at instant speed (flash on the auras), around 2 cmc.
Some new variants on white removal that are modern viable, like perhaps a Swords to Plowshares based design that is 2 cmc and perhaps only gives a specific amount of life, or an amount of life that is related to the CMC rather than the power.
In every color, some stronger nonbasic land hate than they'd be willing to print in Standard, possibly leaning on things that effectively replace it with basic lands, focused around the 2 cmc target area, in order to fight more against things like Tron in various decks giving new sideboard options.
In other colors besides white, black, or colorless, more low CMC grave hate, green might restrict use of graveyards like making them effectively hexproof, blue and green might shuffle stuff back into libraries, red might exile while granting incidental damage to certain sorts of targets. Doesn't need to be as strong as white's version, but should be still modern sideboard viable.
More Modern viable 'command' type spells in colors or color combinations whose versions don't really see play in modern (modal pick two type things) besides blue or rakdos colors.
More modern viable modal pick one spells (charms and the like) in all the mono-colors, particularly focused on making generic sideboard effects also have a main-board effect attached to make main-board worthy spells that can serve some minor, highly in-color, sideboard type effects, like artifact removal in red, enchantment and/or grave hate in white, fogs and/or flying hate in green, etc.
3 cmc mono-blue instant speed draw 2, rather than just Esper Charm getting such. Possibly also for some other color combations with blue besides esper getting this sort of effect. This is mostly for the objective of being able to hold up mana and either use a removal/counter at instant speed, or if there are no worthy targets, using the draw spell at the end of your opponent's turn, also possibly to just threaten the removal/counter.
Stronger/more indirect enchantment and/or artifact hate for black and red, along the lines of things like Aura Barbs, except at 1 or 2 cmc range (red of course would focus only on enchantments for this, while black would focus on both, since black can't deal with either type of permanents, and red can't deal with only enchantment permanents), this stuff would be designed to be modern sideboard worthy using in-color effects powered by opponents having permanents you can't deal with.
A lot of modern worthy stuff in white, black, and green with incidental life gain, but not stuff designed for control decks, but for deck types that are meant to be strong against aggro.
More modern viable flash or haste creatures at 3+ cmc (flash in all colors and haste in colors that have it in pie).
More specific cards that have built in discard or counterspells hate that are appropriate to have such, in black, white and/or green for the discard hate, and in blue, green and/or red for the counterspells hate (so the source color self-hate and the enemy color hate), particularly for things that specifically hate on common modern strategies of the hated color source of the type of hate. (Loxodon Smiter-ish things are kinda the aim here, but tied to some more kinds of things, like burn spells, sideboard spells, certain types of removal, etc.)
Edit: Also, lots of fringe sideboard stuff in all colors that is hard to justify printing in Standard due to the things it is hating against not existing in most Standard environments.
id just like to point out the pretty substantial assumption that the survey results even indicated this as a popular course of action. at this point we are just taking it as fact that everyone wants or wanted something like this to begin with.
dont get me wrong, im not saying im not behind the idea. however i also recognize that itd be a significant departure from the norm. as it has been pointed out plenty of times in this thread such a product would/could include cards specifically designed for modern play. we have seen wizards design touch on this over 2018, but it is still different than an fully explicit showcasing of intent that a modern only (and beyond of course) set might contain.
i do think a need for such a product will only grow with time, since the gap between standard and modern only grows wider with every new standard set. that said we are still at a point where standard sets are very influential in creating new decks or empowering others in modern; which brings into question why wizards would want to press this particular button now. arguments that it 'would sell well' or make them a lot of money are flimsy at best. they are functionally printing money regardless.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
id just like to point out the pretty substantial assumption that the survey results even indicated this as a popular course of action. at this point we are just taking it as fact that everyone wants or wanted something like this to begin with.
You're right; no one knows the results of the survey mentioned in the OP except for Hasbro/Wizards. However, it doesn't have to be "everyone" who wants such a set; Wizards can bank on the popularity of Modern and gauge general interest, so as long as those results weren't surprisingly negative, they likely think they can capitalize on the idea. The fact that they even ran the survey in the first place is a good indication that this idea was more than a fleeting thought.
dont get me wrong, im not saying im not behind the idea. however i also recognize that itd be a significant departure from the norm. as it has been pointed out plenty of times in this thread such a product would/could include cards specifically designed for modern play. we have seen wizards design touch on this over 2018, but it is still different than an fully explicit showcasing of intent that a modern only (and beyond of course) set might contain.
Also true. Again, the fact that they are apparently interested enough to poll about it speaks volumes already. Couple this with the fact that MaRo is excited about a supplemental set that will be "paving new ground" and I think we have a decent chance of getting this set this year. Far from a guarantee, granted, but as several have pointed out, the Modern market looks to be ripe, and they need something else after the now-discontinued Masters sets to really make that revenue up.
i do think a need for such a product will only grow with time, since the gap between standard and modern only grows wider with every new standard set. that said we are still at a point where standard sets are very influential in creating new decks or empowering others in modern; which brings into question why wizards would want to press this particular button now. arguments that it 'would sell well' or make them a lot of money are flimsy at best. they are functionally printing money regardless.
I fully expect that Standard sets will still be the premiere way cards enter the Modern format over time. They want to press the button on this supplemental set now because they will likely have a product that sells well which can also milk equity out of cards that have never been Modern legal, but don't fit with their Standard philosophies. It's not a flimsy argument for a company to look out for their bottom line, and you've got to know a set like this would sell at least well enough to justify creating it.
I have long argued that there should be such sets. Often met with scorn, dismissal and worse, but there it is - even WotC has evidently been considering the possibility. Hadn’t even seen this until now.
Here’s hoping it does happen. Just what the format needs.
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Also having cards like Counterspell potentially be in the set seems a little loose. I hope that I'm wrong but, if they wanted to reprint things to make them legal for modern... Why wouldn't they just put it in a Modern Masters set?
I think the chance for cards designed specifically for modern is a cool idea, plus if this product happens, modern will be essentially on sale for a while.
I'm optimistic to see what this product looks like if it is real
BGGRock
Modern
BRGJund
BBGRock
Modern masters was a reprint only set. The reason they charged 10 dollars a pack was because of the fact that the value of the contents was known. It's hard to explain this in detail, but they would not sell 10 dollar packs if half the cards are new to modern, or just new period.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
1. Reprints of Modern-legal cards
2. Reprints of cards from eternal formats which had never previously been Modern legal
3. Entirely new cards
For the first category, there needs to be enough here to help establish equity and give the set legs. There are enough cards in Modern that need reprinted to not worry about a set like this undercutting much of the secondary market. That said, don't expect to see many cards north of $50 here; they don't want to invalidate Masters sets and sales. I'd expect more cards like Fatal Push and K-Command than EE and Hierarch.
The second category is what really excites a lot of us, but we need to be realistic with expectations here. You are almost certainly not going to see Legacy staples that would provide huge boosts to existing deck types. Price of Progress, Wasteland, Force of Will...these cards are far riskier to the health of the Modern format than build-arounds like Astral Slide, or borderline utility cards like Pillage. The range here is huge, but still enough of an x-factor to not justify a premium pack price.
The third category is the scariest because it represents the unknown. One bad guess could be enough to break the format...but I have enough faith in Wizards to want to see this happen, even if only once. Financially, there will probably be some pushed cards at various levels, but even then, it's hard to guarantee enough to justify $10 packs.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
more than that. modern masters was only reprints. this is the possibility of getting cards into the format that are non-legal reprints, or newly designed cards; without having the restriction of going through standard first.
its a novel idea that has been around in one form or another since forever. wizards has clearly been rethinking their strategies for different products, but to be frank i dont see this ever happening. just too many hoops to jump through and risks incurred.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)They recognize that the buzz and excitement of new cards for that format will sell product.
They realize that printing new cards, as well as reprinting some cards which hadn't been format legal, will help raise and maintain equity better than a set exclusively comprised of already-legal reprints.
As a safety valve to establish a decent EV floor, there will be reprints of existing Modern cards, but they will only be a portion of the product, unlike Masters sets.
This set is going to happen; it's just a question of how soon, because there's money to be had.
how can you be so sure? i think something is going to be done in the next year or so to alleviate card availability issues, but it doesnt necessarily need to be this specific kind of product.
i agree that wizards probably recognizes that modern is their most popular constructed format (no source, just speculation), and that they would look for ways to tap into that. even still the buzz and excitement of new cards, or certain reprints, is already something that happens with standard sets.
there hasnt been a specialized set for a non-standard constructed format before (sans commander). direct support for a format that isnt their flagship might run counter to their long term goals. even if it doesnt, the community might take it that way; which could also be detrimental.
to some degree similar products compete with eachtother. they would have to bank on box sales for a market that is entrenched in buying singles. then the ones who are convinced to buy boxes would have to be those who werent already buying boxes of another set (likely standard, but maybe whatever the next masters set is).
although its minor, it would also be the first and only special set with modern legality. which is just one more thing that might confuse newer players, both to the format and in general.
next the development of the set would be costly. as pointed out, this wouldnt likely be a $10 booster set, meaning less return on sales. to get the appropriate volume of supply out for entirely new cards, it means a fairly large print run. then if you assume that specialty sets require a small dedicated development team, then this product would also need one. this team would have the momentous task of designing a set that can be drafted to some degree (its boosters after all), has valuable legal-reprints, has balanced yet influential non-legal reprints, and balanced yet influential new cards.
-requires more resources
-less return per pack (to cover costs)
-less able to predict demand
-less predictable market response
-more demanding product requirements
in short its likely going to cost more to develop and produce than a set like battlebond, conspiracy, or even modern masters. with lower pack price you would be incurring a risk on two fronts if the product failed to sell as well as predicted. not to mention the less direct risks after the fact if the format ends up being worse off.
TLDR: a modern only booster set could be a gold mine if done right; which isnt impossible. however since it would have both a higher upfront cost and higher risk for failure, i cant see the project getting past the initial pitch.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)As a Modern player, imagine the level of excitement about the possibility, just once, for some old favorites and new blood specific to our format. For me, and for many of my Modern contemporaries, this sort of set would actually get us more interested in those packs than the average Standard set. As you've agreed, Modern is at least very popular, if not the most popular format, and Wizards surely sees the potential value in attempting to market to and capitalize on this.
The Masters sets should count, but particularly with Modern, there's a lot of market potential here. Their primary long-term goal is to grow and maintain their business, and a novel product aimed squarely at an undercapitalized and popular format has a good shot of doing that. In the off-chance it ends up being a dud, they simply don't revisit the idea. Do you really think a set like this would do worse than other supplemental sets they've experimented with, like Conspiracy or Battlebond?
This wouldn't compete with product any more than any of the other supplemental sets they release once or twice a year. Reprinting some Modern staples would easily help keep the EV floor high enough to build confidence for collectors and investors, and again, you're already looking at a product that targets the market of arguably the most popular format (as opposed to unique takes on Limited formats that can end up being spec busts later by virtue). Most of us will still buy the singles we always do, so printing new cards and reprinting old favorites gives equity to those cards. This leads to good set value, so everyone benefits a bit.
If the set's main draw is that all of the included cards will be Modern legal, I don't think we have much to worry about there. It wouldn't be more confusing for Standard players than any other eternal-targeted supplemental set. Most Modern players don't begin Magic in that format, but for the handful that do, I'll bet that the possibility of exciting both newer and veteran players outweighs this risk (and again, the main draw of this set is the format legality, so there's not much to be confused about).
You're assuming too much here. Remember, Wizards cranks sets like this out at least once per year, so it's not a stretch to think that a set aimed squarely at arguably the most popular format wouldn't sell at least as well. Of your five listed points, only the last one is realistic, and even then only to the extent that they need to actually pay attention to the format enough to not shortsightedly cripple it. You're right that design and development efforts will need to be involved, and to tread with care, but this doesn't necessarily translate to significant enough costs to outweigh the sales potential of such a novel product. They've done this with plants for Legacy and Vintage more than once in the past, and with the new design team structure and experience, I'm confident they can do at least a decent job with Modern.
Though your conclusions here aren't impossible, this really just comes off as doomsaying. The fact that Wizards is doing market research on this exact product, coupled with the realization that they really do test things out for the format (refer to the unbanning announcement of JtMS and BBE, as well as the no changes one that preceded it)? Couple this with the fact that they now have a Play Design team very experienced with Modern, and most of your concerns seem to be manageable. This format is not only ripe to market toward, but by virtue of it having so many in-demand reprint options, it would be easy to make a set that holds long term EV as well, so both players and investor/collector types win. Heck, they could be really safe and plant a rare cycle of lands (think enemy fetches or WWK manlands), because they can't get reprinted often enough even with two Masters sets a year. Either way...there's so much potential here, and signs that this is coming.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
If (when) it does happen, I'm wondering what the MSRP will be. This is about the closest thing we will get to Modern Masters, so I'd be surprised if they don't charge the $10 per booster for such a set. Enemy fetches are in need of another reprint, and it's not like Wizards/Hasbro to undercapitalize on these things. This would establish good base equity, and help maintain it for the other included cards.
I also wonder how much would be printed, but of course this is far less important than the set contents.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)EDH: UGEdric
Pauper: UR Delver
Modern: UGR Delver
Draft my cube: Eric's 390 Unpowered
Yes it can. I'm crossing my fingers it's not, lol. But I also realize that the Casual crowd is what keeps Magic alive and thriving.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Though a Commander overhaul might be possible, I think that Wizards won't risk revamping such a successful product, and there haven't been any indications they have considered this. They have been considering the new-to-Modern supplemental set, though, and since we know the Masters sets are done as we knew them, I feel this set is much more likely than something Commander focused.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
This is one area the community here has put forth many great ideas for. Think more along the cards that wouldn't immediately slot into top-tier decks; stuff like Pillage and Terravore for Ponza would be fantastic, even if they don't push the deck to be best in the format. Utility cards and answers, especially of CMC 3 or greater, are more reasonable for Modern's speed and precedent. Heck, I'm primarily a Gx Tron player, and I'd still love to see cards like Recoil and Vindicate make it into Modern. Build-arounds like Astral Slide would also be fun to have, even if just to get brewers going to relive some nostalgia for awhile.
What I wouldn't expect? Cards that define Legacy formats that are clearly above curve, like Wasteland and Force of Will, are the riskiest for the stability of Modern. For similar reasons, I'd not hold my breath for any good rituals/mana rocks, cantrips, tutors, or cheap discard. Similarly, anything that can break the game open like Zuran Orb doesn't belong in Modern. I wouldn't expect many cards more valuable than Containment Priest or Baleful Strix either, as that's about as risky as Wizards should get on reprints; the set value should be held up by existing staples in need of reprint, as you've noted. (Stoneforge Mystic and Batterskull would work though!)
I'm looking forward to these two kinds of cards from Modern only sets.
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I'd hope for Containment Priest or maybe a non-human variant on it to avoid more human tribal power ups.
Wall of Blossoms, as well as a blue variant on that theme (Blossoms, Wall of Omens) possibly with flying/reach as an extra since defensive creatures and card draw are already both in blue's color pie (whereas card draw isn't as much in white's, and defensive creatures isn't as much in green's).
A just plain U hexproof creature, so that the other half of Slippery Bogle to the Gladecover Scout exists.
Counterspell and/or a counter that counters things 3 cmc or less. If not counterspell, then I'd expect the 3 cmc or less targeting one to be UU, if both, then I'd expect the cmc 3 or less one to be 1U.
Flametongue Kavu.
Blue and White's versions of pushed 1 drop prowess creatures to go along with Monastery Swiftspear, blue's focused towards tempo, and white's probably focused towards white weenie.
Some more strong blue 'removal' along the lines of transformation effects that result in the target getting exiled (not just destroyed) and the opponent getting tokens in it's place, or auras that turn a creature into something else while it's enchanted, either or both at instant speed (flash on the auras), around 2 cmc.
Some new variants on white removal that are modern viable, like perhaps a Swords to Plowshares based design that is 2 cmc and perhaps only gives a specific amount of life, or an amount of life that is related to the CMC rather than the power.
Undermine and Force Spike.
In every color, some stronger nonbasic land hate than they'd be willing to print in Standard, possibly leaning on things that effectively replace it with basic lands, focused around the 2 cmc target area, in order to fight more against things like Tron in various decks giving new sideboard options.
In other colors besides white, black, or colorless, more low CMC grave hate, green might restrict use of graveyards like making them effectively hexproof, blue and green might shuffle stuff back into libraries, red might exile while granting incidental damage to certain sorts of targets. Doesn't need to be as strong as white's version, but should be still modern sideboard viable.
More Modern viable 'command' type spells in colors or color combinations whose versions don't really see play in modern (modal pick two type things) besides blue or rakdos colors.
More modern viable modal pick one spells (charms and the like) in all the mono-colors, particularly focused on making generic sideboard effects also have a main-board effect attached to make main-board worthy spells that can serve some minor, highly in-color, sideboard type effects, like artifact removal in red, enchantment and/or grave hate in white, fogs and/or flying hate in green, etc.
3 cmc mono-blue instant speed draw 2, rather than just Esper Charm getting such. Possibly also for some other color combations with blue besides esper getting this sort of effect. This is mostly for the objective of being able to hold up mana and either use a removal/counter at instant speed, or if there are no worthy targets, using the draw spell at the end of your opponent's turn, also possibly to just threaten the removal/counter.
Innocent Blood, Diabolic Edict, and Tribute to the Wild.
From the Ashes and Stranglehold.
Stronger/more indirect enchantment and/or artifact hate for black and red, along the lines of things like Aura Barbs, except at 1 or 2 cmc range (red of course would focus only on enchantments for this, while black would focus on both, since black can't deal with either type of permanents, and red can't deal with only enchantment permanents), this stuff would be designed to be modern sideboard worthy using in-color effects powered by opponents having permanents you can't deal with.
A lot of modern worthy stuff in white, black, and green with incidental life gain, but not stuff designed for control decks, but for deck types that are meant to be strong against aggro.
More modern viable flash or haste creatures at 3+ cmc (flash in all colors and haste in colors that have it in pie).
More specific cards that have built in discard or counterspells hate that are appropriate to have such, in black, white and/or green for the discard hate, and in blue, green and/or red for the counterspells hate (so the source color self-hate and the enemy color hate), particularly for things that specifically hate on common modern strategies of the hated color source of the type of hate. (Loxodon Smiter-ish things are kinda the aim here, but tied to some more kinds of things, like burn spells, sideboard spells, certain types of removal, etc.)
Edit: Also, lots of fringe sideboard stuff in all colors that is hard to justify printing in Standard due to the things it is hating against not existing in most Standard environments.
dont get me wrong, im not saying im not behind the idea. however i also recognize that itd be a significant departure from the norm. as it has been pointed out plenty of times in this thread such a product would/could include cards specifically designed for modern play. we have seen wizards design touch on this over 2018, but it is still different than an fully explicit showcasing of intent that a modern only (and beyond of course) set might contain.
i do think a need for such a product will only grow with time, since the gap between standard and modern only grows wider with every new standard set. that said we are still at a point where standard sets are very influential in creating new decks or empowering others in modern; which brings into question why wizards would want to press this particular button now. arguments that it 'would sell well' or make them a lot of money are flimsy at best. they are functionally printing money regardless.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Also true. Again, the fact that they are apparently interested enough to poll about it speaks volumes already. Couple this with the fact that MaRo is excited about a supplemental set that will be "paving new ground" and I think we have a decent chance of getting this set this year. Far from a guarantee, granted, but as several have pointed out, the Modern market looks to be ripe, and they need something else after the now-discontinued Masters sets to really make that revenue up.
I fully expect that Standard sets will still be the premiere way cards enter the Modern format over time. They want to press the button on this supplemental set now because they will likely have a product that sells well which can also milk equity out of cards that have never been Modern legal, but don't fit with their Standard philosophies. It's not a flimsy argument for a company to look out for their bottom line, and you've got to know a set like this would sell at least well enough to justify creating it.
Here’s hoping it does happen. Just what the format needs.