I don't want to see Twin return; I just want to see the worst offenders of narrow, degenerate crap get gone. BridgeVine is like a more offensive, even glassier-cannon version of Hollow One. KCI is awful. Tron is too consistent. Hence my desire to see Stirrings go away, and maybe Bridge from Below, too. Dredge, Living End, Hollow One, Grishoalbrand, and Storm already demand at least some respect for GY hate and take up valuable slots in your deck if you want a chance against them, though these slots are sometimes helpful as splash hate against other decks (eg, Snapcaster and Finks combo); BridgeVine seems to be amplifying this demand into "The Meta" being decks that either don't care about GY hate, or basically have to MD it to have a chance. I personally dislike that kind of influence on the meta; it reminds me too much of Mirrodin Standard, where Tooth and Nail was the second-best deck only BECAUSE it could afford to run a ton of MD artifact hate. That's not where I want Modern to be, personally.
Also, the comments section shows just how precautionary people still are, even after we saw Wild Nacatl, Bitterblossom, Sword of the Meek, Ancestral Vision, Jace, the Mind Sculptor, Bloodbraid Elf all be fine and not even in any of the top 10 current Modern decks. I'm not sure when people will get over this over cautionary attitude.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
I've thought on this as well. Is Jund REALLY not as good as Mardu? I find that hard to believe. Is Affinity a bad deck? I highly doubt it. Is Infect dead?
You get the point.
yeah exactly. remember that like 1 week where people thought bant/uw spirits was some tier 0 deck? its like without wizards holding our hand by not releasing mtgo data the community is just making stuff up as we go along, with it usually being a pretty poor reflection of reality.
i get that the mtgo meta can be fickle, but cmon people; bridgevine aint no pre-ban dredge. also UW control, at least in its current iteration, still has fewer finishes than generic jeskai control with 2 teferi. seems a bit presumptive to label it something other than just the best control variant at the moment.
as for the speed of the format, I think its hard to gauge because aggro decks are what really set the bar. hollow one, bridgevine, hardened scales affinity can have some blistering starts but less consistently than something like humans, meaning the format can look fast as hell at some points. not to mention aggro decks can technically decide a game at some point early on, but still take more turns to close out.
Also, the comments section shows just how precautionary people still are, even after we saw Wild Nacatl, Bitterblossom, Sword of the Meek, Ancestral Vision, Jace, the Mind Sculptor, Bloodbraid Elf all be fine and not even in any of the top 10 current Modern decks. I'm not sure when people will get over this over cautionary attitude.
preordain and GSZ had some pretty generic explanations which echo some of the sentiments here. Sigrist counting SFM as higher risk than the other two AND implying that white may be too good at the moment (based off sideboard tech alone).
some think SFM would be unplayable, while others think it would be auto-include into any white deck playing remotely fair. i figure the reality would fall somewhere in the middle; a good choice for a few choice decks. if there are concerns about UW miracles, open up a new tab and bring up a deck list, then ask yourself where you are getting 6 slots from. UW would have to branch towards midrange, which may or may not be better than the full control route.
His feelings may not be the best, but he did indeed say that all 3 should be unbanned. That's much better than the people in the Comments that said "Stoneforge Mystic will kill all Aggro." Lol, as if Aggro decks are 1 Stoneforge Mystic unban away from death. I doubt Aggro would be hurt all that much with Stoneforge Mystic AND Punishing Fire at this point.
I think it would fall somewhere in the middle as well. I mean, honestly even if Stoneforge Mystic did become too good, they could just re-ban it. While that is not optimal of course, the chances of that happening are pretty small. Small chances like that are reasons to take a tiny risk in my opinion.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
His feelings may not be the best, but he did indeed say that all 3 should be unbanned. That's much better than the people in the Comments that said "Stoneforge Mystic will kill all Aggro." Lol, as if Aggro decks are 1 Stoneforge Mystic unban away from death. I doubt Aggro would be hurt all that much with Stoneforge Mystic AND Punishing Fire at this point.
I think it would fall somewhere in the middle as well. I mean, honestly even if Stoneforge Mystic did become too good, they could just re-ban it. While that is not optimal of course, the chances of that happening are pretty small. Small chances like that are reasons to take a tiny risk in my opinion.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
The fear of twin is comical, in the face of all the things one can do and see and play against. Its Twin that is the Big Bad.
To say nothing of the comments on that article. OH NO A 4/4 on turn 3!
T3 Storm? Cool.
T3 Karn? Gravy.
T4 Ugin? Even better.
T2/3 KCI combo? Fine.
T2/3 Infect? Great.
T1/2 Multiple Free 4/4s? Fair.
T1/2 Multiple Free 2/2s and 4/3 Haste? Just as Garfield intended.
T3 4/4 Artifact creature that takes 4 mana investment over 2 turns and requires creature to live? WAY TOO GOOD.
T4 Fragile creature combo? TOTLLY BROKEN OPPRESSIVE UNFAIR GET OUT OF MY FORMAT.
Also, the comments section shows just how precautionary people still are, even after we saw Wild Nacatl, Bitterblossom, Sword of the Meek, Ancestral Vision, Jace, the Mind Sculptor, Bloodbraid Elf all be fine and not even in any of the top 10 current Modern decks. I'm not sure when people will get over this over cautionary attitude.
Does UW Control not count as top 10 in Modern? I think JTMS and even Ancestral Vision pops up in those decks. Now its fair to say JTMS getting free isnt what pushed UW over the top, it was languishing before Teferi and Search arrived. All I want cantrip consistency.
if jace wasnt around UW wouldnt be a contender. in that sense it did push it over the top. whether you rate teferi more impactful doesnt really matter. maybe a role player and not an mvp, but whatever.
AV on the other hand i can confidently say is irrelevant in modern. its a piece of tech people play sometimes. i cant think of a single deck that requires it, or is objectively better because of its legality. even bitterblossom throws more weight around in the 2(?) decks it sees play in.
T3 Storm? Cool.
T3 Karn? Gravy.
T4 Ugin? Even better.
T2/3 KCI combo? Fine.
T2/3 Infect? Great.
T1/2 Multiple Free 4/4s? Fair.
T1/2 Multiple Free 2/2s and 4/3 Haste? Just as Garfield intended.
T3 4/4 Artifact creature that takes 4 mana investment over 2 turns and requires creature to live? WAY TOO GOOD.
T4 Fragile creature combo? TOTLLY BROKEN OPPRESSIVE UNFAIR GET OUT OF MY FORMAT.
this comparison is so reductive its borderline meaningless. it ignores the context of each decks components and strategy. ill beg off twin because thats a convo no one wants to see continue, but the stoneforge to hollow one comparison that so often comes up is a meme as far as im concerned. what are people going to be playing 38 stoneforges, 2 b-skulls, and 20 lands or something?
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
It is not fragile, when it has 4 toughness.
A fragile creature would be birds of paradise.
It's a fragile combo because it is extremely easy to disrupt using a number of popular, broad, and main-deck answers, since it requires a creature to live and then resolve a 4 mana enchantment on your main phase. Just because one piece of it doesn't die from Bolt, it's infinitely more easy to interact with than just about everything else on that satirical list.
Like say KCI, which can win through a resolved Extirpate, or Dredgevine winning through a Rest in Peace, or Burning Inquiry taking away your lands/answers, or Emrakul, who blanks nearly all forms of interaction.
its not so much that it doesnt happen, but rather that its missing so much information that it cruises right through biased territory into utter nonsense.
i can see arguing that the format has long since breached the 'turn 4 rule', but if we could so easily assess the objective power level of every deck based on their nut draws; then this format would be long since figured out. by that metric i might as well throw my snapcasters into the dumpster because a 3+ mana value play could never measure up. yet here we are, snapcaster still dealing out the beats like dr. dre.
stoneforge may end up being a bust, but it wont be because infect and or kci are nutting all over her. it will be because the cards surrounding her, and the composite strategy along side such a 2 mana value play wont make the cut. how might a BWx deck fair against hollow one on the play with a starting hand including a path and discard spell? or what about a UWx deck that can keep the shields up with a stoneforge activation in the chamber? hollow one having that minuscule chance at dropping multiple 4/4's is hardly the decider in which deck may or may not be better.
i mentioned before that i think twin wouldnt be as dominant. there are simply other good things to be doing, some of which might be quite good against twin. however, like stoneforge, any URx twin deck would have stuff going on far outside the scope of its kill turn. cfusionpm listed turn 3 karn, and we all know how that worked out.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
Turn 3 Tron is so common at this point I consider game 1 a forgone conclusion. Thats not biased to the point of nonsense. Same with Storm game 1 honestly.
I re-ran the numbers from the April 2015 - November 2015 dataset. In that time, the MTGO dataset tracked about 28,000 matches. This included 338 Twin vs. BGx matchups. Including ALL of the BGx variants, Twin was 186/338 or 55% MWP. If we only look at traditional Jund, we're either at 49% (42/86) or 68/128 (53%) depending on how many of the miscellaneous BRG decks were truly Jund and which were merely rogue. Either way, no matter how we cut the actual data, BGx vs. Twin was 50/50.
Did you happen to see vs Delver?
Twin vs. Grixis Delver: 56/118 (47.5%)
Twin vs. UR Delver: 10/28 (35.7%)
Twin vs. URx Delver: 66/146 (45%)
This is what I would characterize as a classic unfavorable 45/55 matchup.
Are those numbers for all varieties of twin?
Maybe this seems like a reach, but its not surprising that grixis twin, or tarmotwin, would have better jund matchups than straight UR. In exchange, they give up percentage against other decks, but you can't build 1 twin deck that has the jund matchup of grixis twin, the affinity matchup of jeskai twin, the mirror percentage of tarmotwin and the burn matchup of UR twin, but when pulling numbers from broad archtypes, you'll get stuff like that.
I broke it down for UR Twin specifically. N obviously shrinks but the stats don't change: 35/72 (48.6%). This is a 50/50 matchup no matter how you swing it.
Didn't those decks have Gitaxian Probe.... and Treasure Cruise the previous 3 months from the January 2015 announcement?...
As I said, this data reflects matchups from April 2015 through November 2015. TC and DTT were banned in January 2015 after being legal for the winter of 2014. They are not in the dataset in any way.
The Delver decks did, however, use Probe and that would be included in the data.
As for why Twin was banned, let's stop speculating on reasons. Here is why Twin was banned: https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/news/january-18-2016-banned-and-restricted-announcement-2016-01-18 "We also look for decks that hold a large enough percentage of the competitive field to reduce the diversity of the format." "Decks that are this strong can hurt diversity by pushing the decks that it defeats out of competition. " "They can also reduce diversity by supplanting similar decks. "
As evidence of the first two points, Wizards cited Twin's GP/PT T8 performance. No other deck has matched that performance in a one-year period since then.
The only unofficial reason worth discussing is the PT shakeup factor, which I and others indirectly proved through Tweets, later updates/announcements, metagame context, etc. All other ban reasons are speculative, at best, or fabricated, at worst.
If you have the time, could you review the metagame analysis matchup % during the Treasure Cruise era?
My point was more UWx wasn't putting up Ws with just JTMS free. Teferi and Search pushed it over the top. Now which card deserves the most credit is debatable but I am happy saying its a World Finest Batman & Superman situation and not a Batman & Robin.
Turn 3 Tron is so common at this point I consider game 1 a forgone conclusion. Thats not biased to the point of nonsense. Same with Storm game 1 honestly.
I play primarily Tron. The bulk of the deck is dedicated to getting it assembled, but even with all of that, if your opponent is getting it on turn 3 more than say 60% over a number of weeks, they are absurdly lucky or cheating. The odds of t3 assembly are mathematically under 55%
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Project Booster Fun makes it less fun to open a booster.
Turn 3 Tron is so common at this point I consider game 1 a forgone conclusion. Thats not biased to the point of nonsense. Same with Storm game 1 honestly.
I play primarily Tron. The bulk of the deck is dedicated to getting it assembled, but even with all of that, if your opponent is getting it on turn 3 more than say 60% over a number of weeks, they are absurdly lucky or cheating. The odds of t3 assembly are mathematically under 55%
I'm well aware of what the bulk of the deck is doing. I have to play against it several times a week, if not daily, the deck is absolutely a scourge on my soul online. The fact its 'less than 55%' FOR A TURN 3 TRON, is comically consistent, though honestly Turn 3 is not even the biggest of my concerns, its the Turn 4 Ulamog, or World Breaker, that really tilts me.
I play against Tron, more than any other deck, even Storm, online. Its consistent to the point of being near automatic in Game 1, and takes MULTIPLE hate slots to even slow it down to the point where they are only chaining threats at turns 5/6/7...the poor thing.
The fact its 'less than 55%' FOR A TURN 3 TRON, is comically consistent
I worked out numbers a year or two ago about Twin's consistency. Based on an aggregate decklist of the time, as well as average land base, I used a hypergeometric calc to get the odds of having a turn 4 Twin combo between 13-33% of the time. This included having to hit a land drop every turn, have double red by T4, have a tapper in hand by T3, and Twin by T4. I worked out all those percentages individually for normal draw rate up to drawing 4 additional cards, through means of Serum Visions (T1, draw 1, bottom, bottom) and Remand (T2 draw 1), but I did not adjust probabilities to reflect needing to have those cards, just simply IF you drew 1, 2, 3, or 4 extra cards in addition to your normal draws. Those final numbers were just a product of all those probabilities multiplied together (as you would need all of those to align to get a T4 combo). I have the math saved somewhere. Just thought that was an interesting lesson in probability. I did not work out the probability of an opponent having an answer, but considering most interactive decks run 8-12 meaningful disruption pieces, that would likely have brought the number down significantly.
Turn 3 Tron is so common at this point I consider game 1 a forgone conclusion. Thats not biased to the point of nonsense. Same with Storm game 1 honestly.
I play primarily Tron. The bulk of the deck is dedicated to getting it assembled, but even with all of that, if your opponent is getting it on turn 3 more than say 60% over a number of weeks, they are absurdly lucky or cheating. The odds of t3 assembly are mathematically under 55%
I'm well aware of what the bulk of the deck is doing. I have to play against it several times a week, if not daily, the deck is absolutely a scourge on my soul online. The fact its 'less than 55%' FOR A TURN 3 TRON, is comically consistent, though honestly Turn 3 is not even the biggest of my concerns, its the Turn 4 Ulamog, or World Breaker, that really tilts me.
I play against Tron, more than any other deck, even Storm, online. Its consistent to the point of being near automatic in Game 1, and takes MULTIPLE hate slots to even slow it down to the point where they are only chaining threats at turns 5/6/7...the poor thing.
Math is math. If the odds of a turn 3 Tron are around 55% then that's what it is. If your opponents are achieving this more often then either your sample size is too small, your opponents are cheating, or you are experiencing a cognitive bias.
Turn 3 Tron is so common at this point I consider game 1 a forgone conclusion. Thats not biased to the point of nonsense. Same with Storm game 1 honestly.
I play primarily Tron. The bulk of the deck is dedicated to getting it assembled, but even with all of that, if your opponent is getting it on turn 3 more than say 60% over a number of weeks, they are absurdly lucky or cheating. The odds of t3 assembly are mathematically under 55%
I'm well aware of what the bulk of the deck is doing. I have to play against it several times a week, if not daily, the deck is absolutely a scourge on my soul online. The fact its 'less than 55%' FOR A TURN 3 TRON, is comically consistent, though honestly Turn 3 is not even the biggest of my concerns, its the Turn 4 Ulamog, or World Breaker, that really tilts me.
I play against Tron, more than any other deck, even Storm, online. Its consistent to the point of being near automatic in Game 1, and takes MULTIPLE hate slots to even slow it down to the point where they are only chaining threats at turns 5/6/7...the poor thing.
Math is math. If the odds of a turn 3 Tron are around 55% then that's what it is. If your opponents are achieving this more often then either your sample size is too small, your opponents are cheating, or you are experiencing a cognitive bias.
You miss the point. 55% of the time, a Turn 3 Tron is hilariously consistent in a game like Magic.
Turn 3 Tron is so common at this point I consider game 1 a forgone conclusion. Thats not biased to the point of nonsense. Same with Storm game 1 honestly.
I play primarily Tron. The bulk of the deck is dedicated to getting it assembled, but even with all of that, if your opponent is getting it on turn 3 more than say 60% over a number of weeks, they are absurdly lucky or cheating. The odds of t3 assembly are mathematically under 55%
I'm well aware of what the bulk of the deck is doing. I have to play against it several times a week, if not daily, the deck is absolutely a scourge on my soul online. The fact its 'less than 55%' FOR A TURN 3 TRON, is comically consistent, though honestly Turn 3 is not even the biggest of my concerns, its the Turn 4 Ulamog, or World Breaker, that really tilts me.
I play against Tron, more than any other deck, even Storm, online. Its consistent to the point of being near automatic in Game 1, and takes MULTIPLE hate slots to even slow it down to the point where they are only chaining threats at turns 5/6/7...the poor thing.
Math is math. If the odds of a turn 3 Tron are around 55% then that's what it is. If your opponents are achieving this more often then either your sample size is too small, your opponents are cheating, or you are experiencing a cognitive bias.
You miss the point. 55% of the time, a Turn 3 Tron is hilariously consistent in a game like Magic.
It seems like most combo decks in modern are able to set up their combo to go off on turn 4 at least 50% of the time. In fact if a combo deck couldn't do this it would seem pretty bad.
I play primarily Tron. The bulk of the deck is dedicated to getting it assembled, but even with all of that, if your opponent is getting it on turn 3 more than say 60% over a number of weeks, they are absurdly lucky or cheating. The odds of t3 assembly are mathematically under 55%
I'm well aware of what the bulk of the deck is doing. I have to play against it several times a week, if not daily, the deck is absolutely a scourge on my soul online. The fact its 'less than 55%' FOR A TURN 3 TRON, is comically consistent, though honestly Turn 3 is not even the biggest of my concerns, its the Turn 4 Ulamog, or World Breaker, that really tilts me.
I play against Tron, more than any other deck, even Storm, online. Its consistent to the point of being near automatic in Game 1, and takes MULTIPLE hate slots to even slow it down to the point where they are only chaining threats at turns 5/6/7...the poor thing.
Math is math. If the odds of a turn 3 Tron are around 55% then that's what it is. If your opponents are achieving this more often then either your sample size is too small, your opponents are cheating, or you are experiencing a cognitive bias.
You miss the point. 55% of the time, a Turn 3 Tron is hilariously consistent in a game like Magic.
It seems like most combo decks in modern are able to set up their combo to go off on turn 4 at least 50% of the time. In fact if a combo deck couldn't do this it would seem pretty bad.
Indeed, better release Twin.
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UW Spirits
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https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/there-are-three-cards-that-need-to-come-off-the-modern-banned-list/
Also, the comments section shows just how precautionary people still are, even after we saw Wild Nacatl, Bitterblossom, Sword of the Meek, Ancestral Vision, Jace, the Mind Sculptor, Bloodbraid Elf all be fine and not even in any of the top 10 current Modern decks. I'm not sure when people will get over this over cautionary attitude.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)yeah exactly. remember that like 1 week where people thought bant/uw spirits was some tier 0 deck? its like without wizards holding our hand by not releasing mtgo data the community is just making stuff up as we go along, with it usually being a pretty poor reflection of reality.
i get that the mtgo meta can be fickle, but cmon people; bridgevine aint no pre-ban dredge. also UW control, at least in its current iteration, still has fewer finishes than generic jeskai control with 2 teferi. seems a bit presumptive to label it something other than just the best control variant at the moment.
as for the speed of the format, I think its hard to gauge because aggro decks are what really set the bar. hollow one, bridgevine, hardened scales affinity can have some blistering starts but less consistently than something like humans, meaning the format can look fast as hell at some points. not to mention aggro decks can technically decide a game at some point early on, but still take more turns to close out.
preordain and GSZ had some pretty generic explanations which echo some of the sentiments here. Sigrist counting SFM as higher risk than the other two AND implying that white may be too good at the moment (based off sideboard tech alone).
some think SFM would be unplayable, while others think it would be auto-include into any white deck playing remotely fair. i figure the reality would fall somewhere in the middle; a good choice for a few choice decks. if there are concerns about UW miracles, open up a new tab and bring up a deck list, then ask yourself where you are getting 6 slots from. UW would have to branch towards midrange, which may or may not be better than the full control route.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)I think it would fall somewhere in the middle as well. I mean, honestly even if Stoneforge Mystic did become too good, they could just re-ban it. While that is not optimal of course, the chances of that happening are pretty small. Small chances like that are reasons to take a tiny risk in my opinion.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)To say nothing of the comments on that article. OH NO A 4/4 on turn 3!
Spirits
I think it would fall somewhere in the middle as well. I mean, honestly even if Stoneforge Mystic did become too good, they could just re-ban it. While that is not optimal of course, the chances of that happening are pretty small. Small chances like that are reasons to take a tiny risk in my opinion.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)T3 Karn? Gravy.
T4 Ugin? Even better.
T2/3 KCI combo? Fine.
T2/3 Infect? Great.
T1/2 Multiple Free 4/4s? Fair.
T1/2 Multiple Free 2/2s and 4/3 Haste? Just as Garfield intended.
T3 4/4 Artifact creature that takes 4 mana investment over 2 turns and requires creature to live? WAY TOO GOOD.
T4 Fragile creature combo? TOTLLY BROKEN OPPRESSIVE UNFAIR GET OUT OF MY FORMAT.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Does UW Control not count as top 10 in Modern? I think JTMS and even Ancestral Vision pops up in those decks. Now its fair to say JTMS getting free isnt what pushed UW over the top, it was languishing before Teferi and Search arrived. All I want cantrip consistency.
AV on the other hand i can confidently say is irrelevant in modern. its a piece of tech people play sometimes. i cant think of a single deck that requires it, or is objectively better because of its legality. even bitterblossom throws more weight around in the 2(?) decks it sees play in.
this comparison is so reductive its borderline meaningless. it ignores the context of each decks components and strategy. ill beg off twin because thats a convo no one wants to see continue, but the stoneforge to hollow one comparison that so often comes up is a meme as far as im concerned. what are people going to be playing 38 stoneforges, 2 b-skulls, and 20 lands or something?
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Fetch a Swamp, Push.
That's assuming you didn't get Seized, or they are not already threatening lethal and you yourself can tap out for a win.
People may not like cfusionpm's list but I can tell you now, that stuff happens. It happens nearly every night if I play more than a few matches.
Twin couldn't win before Turn 4. Period.
Yet it deserves to be dead while all that other busted stuff goes on?
Biased.
Spirits
All you have to do is play a fetchland and not crack it for the rest of the game. That's all really /s
If the combo is that terrible and the deck that safe/mediocre why does anyone even want it back in the format.
It's a fragile combo because it is extremely easy to disrupt using a number of popular, broad, and main-deck answers, since it requires a creature to live and then resolve a 4 mana enchantment on your main phase. Just because one piece of it doesn't die from Bolt, it's infinitely more easy to interact with than just about everything else on that satirical list.
Like say KCI, which can win through a resolved Extirpate, or Dredgevine winning through a Rest in Peace, or Burning Inquiry taking away your lands/answers, or Emrakul, who blanks nearly all forms of interaction.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Path, Rending Volley, Discards, Counters, Torpor Orb, or you know, maybe they simply don't have the combo?
As to why I want it back? Same reason the most fun I have is when Jund, UWR and UW are seeing play.
Those decks, and Twin, promote play lines that are back and forth, and not a bunch of goldfish doing whatever.
Let's not pretend there are not answers in the format.
Spirits
i can see arguing that the format has long since breached the 'turn 4 rule', but if we could so easily assess the objective power level of every deck based on their nut draws; then this format would be long since figured out. by that metric i might as well throw my snapcasters into the dumpster because a 3+ mana value play could never measure up. yet here we are, snapcaster still dealing out the beats like dr. dre.
stoneforge may end up being a bust, but it wont be because infect and or kci are nutting all over her. it will be because the cards surrounding her, and the composite strategy along side such a 2 mana value play wont make the cut. how might a BWx deck fair against hollow one on the play with a starting hand including a path and discard spell? or what about a UWx deck that can keep the shields up with a stoneforge activation in the chamber? hollow one having that minuscule chance at dropping multiple 4/4's is hardly the decider in which deck may or may not be better.
i mentioned before that i think twin wouldnt be as dominant. there are simply other good things to be doing, some of which might be quite good against twin. however, like stoneforge, any URx twin deck would have stuff going on far outside the scope of its kill turn. cfusionpm listed turn 3 karn, and we all know how that worked out.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Spirits
If you have the time, could you review the metagame analysis matchup % during the Treasure Cruise era?
I play primarily Tron. The bulk of the deck is dedicated to getting it assembled, but even with all of that, if your opponent is getting it on turn 3 more than say 60% over a number of weeks, they are absurdly lucky or cheating. The odds of t3 assembly are mathematically under 55%
I'm well aware of what the bulk of the deck is doing. I have to play against it several times a week, if not daily, the deck is absolutely a scourge on my soul online. The fact its 'less than 55%' FOR A TURN 3 TRON, is comically consistent, though honestly Turn 3 is not even the biggest of my concerns, its the Turn 4 Ulamog, or World Breaker, that really tilts me.
I play against Tron, more than any other deck, even Storm, online. Its consistent to the point of being near automatic in Game 1, and takes MULTIPLE hate slots to even slow it down to the point where they are only chaining threats at turns 5/6/7...the poor thing.
Spirits
I worked out numbers a year or two ago about Twin's consistency. Based on an aggregate decklist of the time, as well as average land base, I used a hypergeometric calc to get the odds of having a turn 4 Twin combo between 13-33% of the time. This included having to hit a land drop every turn, have double red by T4, have a tapper in hand by T3, and Twin by T4. I worked out all those percentages individually for normal draw rate up to drawing 4 additional cards, through means of Serum Visions (T1, draw 1, bottom, bottom) and Remand (T2 draw 1), but I did not adjust probabilities to reflect needing to have those cards, just simply IF you drew 1, 2, 3, or 4 extra cards in addition to your normal draws. Those final numbers were just a product of all those probabilities multiplied together (as you would need all of those to align to get a T4 combo). I have the math saved somewhere. Just thought that was an interesting lesson in probability. I did not work out the probability of an opponent having an answer, but considering most interactive decks run 8-12 meaningful disruption pieces, that would likely have brought the number down significantly.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Spirits
Math is math. If the odds of a turn 3 Tron are around 55% then that's what it is. If your opponents are achieving this more often then either your sample size is too small, your opponents are cheating, or you are experiencing a cognitive bias.
You miss the point. 55% of the time, a Turn 3 Tron is hilariously consistent in a game like Magic.
Spirits
It seems like most combo decks in modern are able to set up their combo to go off on turn 4 at least 50% of the time. In fact if a combo deck couldn't do this it would seem pretty bad.
Indeed, better release Twin.
Spirits