Isn't searching for Craterhoof already super possible? With a card that does it for G cheaper than if you win that turn? And the decks that aren't (and are) using Pact are making a huge amount of mana anyway, Chord only costs GG more, that's hardly a leap. I think Craterhoof is a really poor example of something that GSZ would improve because you can already do it cheaper or instantly for minimal differences in cost.
If we want to talk about GSZ breaking things, let's talk about consistency being too powerful and T1-T3 uses; I strongly think those are the defining issues for GSZ as far as differentiation from Pact, Chord, Company, Traverse, and Evolution. Other than that, WotC specifically said they hope to increase diversity in Green decks with its banning.
In any case, Elves is also pretty flimsy. I see it nearly weekly and manage to keep the deck off resources pretty handily. As much as GSZ might make the deck better, they still need to actually achieve critical mass.
I thought I'd share the GP T8 metagame and compare it to the GP T8 metagame including all the decks that missed on breakers alone.
Interesting data. I understand the goal of cutting it off at decks with at least three appearances; you wanted only to see the shifts in ranking. OTOH, the cutting off at three and the fact that these rankings ignore the initial meta-game proportions are misleading. If a deck had only 4 players registered and place 1 or 2 in the top-32, it's a significant indications.
So I think that rather than absolute numbers, the conversion rate is the real interesting data that we would need to analyze. For example, I'm guessing that KCI is stronger than tron, but fewer players register KCI. (Off course, the noise from variance is problematic, but we can't do magic.)
I agree with your first point to an extent, because we don't know how many players registered any given deck. Such Day 1 data is all but unheard of in the GP coverage world. We're lucky to get Day 2 numbers as in GP Prague. Because of that, this type of conversion data cant play into our analysis at all. It's almost entirely a black box.
So...we have pretty good options all over the place in terms of control, midrange, disruptive aggro, linear aggro, spell combo, creature combo (i dunno what else to call hardened scale robots), ramp decks. At this point, any claims of underrepresentation are going a bit deeper, I'd argue too deep, when discussing the health of the format. You can clearly play jund, mardu pyromancer, or grixis shadow and find success, but you also need a green toolbox midrange deck? There's humans offering a synergistic, disruptive aggro deck, but really it would be better to have SFM because mono white D&T needs to be there? At some point, I think the reality is that some decks just will not translate well to modern from every other format.
Hell, we might even have some stability for a few more months!
I think 'tax' is a missing type. SFM would put Death and Taxes into the upper Tier 2 at least.
Im not sure SFM gives enough omph to dnt right now. Hitting an early Thalia is so very important for dealing with combo decks, so she gets the t2 priority in those matches. Against any black midrange deck, the germ token is answered very cleanly by push (as is SFM) and any RBx deck can kcommand to mop up a SFM and whatever artifact you've dumped in.
I agree another cheap tax affect will do miles more for the deck than SFM. What mystic does give the deck is some muscle to close the door, and I think that's where it's going to see most of its play if she becomes free. Creating a clock once the resources are locked up accross the table.
"So...we have pretty good options all over the place in terms of control, midrange, disruptive aggro, linear aggro, spell combo, creature combo (i dunno what else to call hardened scale robots), ramp decks. At this point, any claims of underrepresentation are going a bit deeper, I'd argue too deep, when discussing the health of the format. You can clearly play jund, mardu pyromancer, or grixis shadow and find success, but you also need a green toolbox midrange deck? There's humans offering a synergistic, disruptive aggro deck, but really it would be better to have SFM because mono white D&T needs to be there? At some point, I think the reality is that some decks just will not translate well to modern from every other format."
There is really only tax/statis (Death and Taxes, Turns?) that are missing right now. You even have a viable Prison deck, in Mono Red Pyro.
I think 'tax' is a missing type. SFM would put Death and Taxes into the upper Tier 2 at least.
Do you mean tax as in disruptive aggro? Because Humans is doing that. Humans is what D&T would be if white-based D&T was good. It blanks removal via meddling mage in a manner akin to mother of runes. It disrupts mana with Thalia. It offers those effects, discard, and bounce while backing it up with several cards that allow it to turn a corner very quickly.
If you are watching a legacy game where mother of runes is blanking swords to plowshares in the opponent's hand, rishadan port is tapping down their only black source, and batterskull is swinging in early to put a clock going "oh that's cool," I'd argue the answer is to play humans.
If we got a good tax effect, it would immediately get paired with Thalia and people would never stop complaining about losses to prison decks. Not everything can exist in modern. A limited, albeit large, selection of cards will lead to a limited number of decks being viable.
I think 'tax' is a missing type. SFM would put Death and Taxes into the upper Tier 2 at least.
Do you mean tax as in disruptive aggro? Because Humans is doing that. Humans is what D&T would be if white-based D&T was good. It blanks removal via meddling mage in a manner akin to mother of runes. It disrupts mana with Thalia. It offers those effects, discard, and bounce while backing it up with several cards that allow it to turn a corner very quickly.
If you are watching a legacy game where mother of runes is blanking swords to plowshares in the opponent's hand, rishadan port is tapping down their only black source, and batterskull is swinging in early to put a clock going "oh that's cool," I'd argue the answer is to play humans.
If we got a good tax effect, it would immediately get paired with Thalia and people would never stop complaining about losses to prison decks. Not everything can exist in modern. A limited, albeit large, selection of cards will lead to a limited number of decks being viable.
I disagree. We have vryn wingmare, a non legendary in color flying tax effect at a reasonable cost seeing zero play. T3 is too slow for just a tax effect. thorn of amethyst cannot hold back aggro or help you turn the corner. We need a tax effect that impacts more than some matches for the archetype to get traction. Wingmare is a shot in the right direction, but is too slow for the decks you want to see it against (t3 cast, t4 coco/vial). Taxes should be expanded like arbiter, ghostly prison or even teeg. There is a lot of room to play with the design. I just think the cards have to have a dual purpose to do sufficiently well in the meta.
We have lantern for prison, a deck which consistently gets complaints from all tiers of play for how it operates but has cleary weaknesses, and you want literal prison decks?
The main issue with evaluating the impact of a banned, but presumably safe card in modern is the legacy formats own enablers and meta. Legacy has a lot of powerful cards like jitte that make a huge difference in some builds.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
We have lantern for prison, a deck which consistently gets complaints from all tiers of play for how it operates but has cleary weaknesses, and you want literal prison decks?
If it can be handled by hate or other decks? Sure. I played Turns though, so my tastes are not in line with everyone's.
Isn't taxes just kind of a more controlling version of fish? Both are decks that feature creature-based disruption.
As a D&T player I take great offense being compared to fish people.
Where fish is usually a creature deck that plays tempo, D&T is a creature deck that plays control. Every single card is designed to make your opponent hate their lives and make it harder for them to complete their gameplan. Brightling is actually a poster child of the deck. On the surface, it's a 3/3 that looks rather harmless compared to a tarmogoyf. However, want to bolt it? I buff it's toughness. Want to kill it with a revolted Fatal Push? I bounce it to hand.
Now imagine a deck that has that kind of innocuous, obnoxious kind of play with every single creature in the deck, but also with the ability to tax non-creature spells or pithing needle walkers. That is what D&T is. D&T is a deck so good at it's job that it uses Palace Jailer. Why? Because the D&T player knows he probably isn't losing the monarch token anytime soon.
The modern version isn't quite the same, though. There's actually multiple versions in modern and depending on which one someone is playing they tend to be more mid-range stompy, hate bear, or aggro hybrids.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Re: Fetches getting banned
This is not going to happen, Wizards has given no indication it will happen, and this suggestion has always been one of my favorite indicators that the format is healthy. Anytime people start suggesting these kinds of fundamental reshaping bans (e.g. ban fetches, ban all fast mana, ban all strong removal, etc.), I know that the format probably has no real issues and we are just struggling to find something meaningful to discuss.
Blood Moon would probably be eventually banned as well in a Modern format where fetch lands are not allowed. All my Modern decks rely on fetches to smooth the mana, and fight moon decks.
This is a claim often made regarding Blood Moon and the fetchlands, but it is highly dubious. First, Blood Moon was in Standard for about three years without there being fetchlands (in the time period after Onslaught rotated out and before Ninth Edition rotated out), and as far as I can tell its impact was relatively small. Sure, some decks would run it as a sideboard card, but it doesn't seem like it was doing much to suppress decks. Consider this deck, for example; 2nd place at the Pro Tour while running only three basic lands, in a format where Blood Moon was legal and can be seen in the sideboards of several decks at that tournament.
Second, and perhaps related to the above: It's true that without fetchlands, it's a lot harder to play around Blood Moon. But do you know who that also applies to? The person using Blood Moon. Without the fetchlands, it's considerably harder to actually use Blood Moon effectively. Blood Moon might become more powerful, but we'd see a dramatic drop in decks using Blood Moon. So I actually find it unlikely that, if fetchlands were removed, Blood Moon would actually require a banning. Any gain in strength it would experience is made up for how much more narrow the decks that can use it become.
Granted, this is all hypothetical as I do not see fetchlands being banned anyway, but for the above reasons I don't think Blood Moon would be anywhere near as overpowered as some people seem to think it would be in a Modern format without fetchlands.
Blood Moon would be here whether we had fetches or not. Back to Basics was around pre-fetchlands and it never broke the game. Unfortunately, the rest of Urza's Saga did the work where the hate card didn't.
Private Mod Note
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
As a D&T player I take great offense being compared to fish people.
Where fish is usually a creature deck that plays tempo, D&T is a creature deck that plays control. Every single card is designed to make your opponent hate their lives and make it harder for them to complete their gameplan. Brightling is actually a poster child of the deck. On the surface, it's a 3/3 that looks rather harmless compared to a tarmogoyf. However, want to bolt it? I buff it's toughness. Want to kill it with a revolted Fatal Push? I bounce it to hand.
Now imagine a deck that has that kind of innocuous, obnoxious kind of play with every single creature in the deck, but also with the ability to tax non-creature spells or pithing needle walkers. That is what D&T is. D&T is a deck so good at it's job that it uses Palace Jailer. Why? Because the D&T player knows he probably isn't losing the monarch token anytime soon.
The modern version isn't quite the same, though. There's actually multiple versions in modern and depending on which one someone is playing they tend to be more mid-range stompy, hate bear, or aggro hybrids.
Ah ok, so would you say Taxes is kind of aggro-prison? I don't play Legacy, so I guess I've never experienced a real Taxes deck, lol.
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
At least Colt admits the deck is infuriating for opponents by design. I think at that point the format is so healthy and diverse that the categories of decks "needing" to exist is becoming narrower and narrower, which is a great sign for the current modern. It's nice to reach a point like this:
Player A: I want to run mental misstep in modern
Player B: But a lot of games would be reduced to who won the turn 1 counter war
A: Sometimes, sure, but we don't have free countermagic in modern except for disrupting shoal, which is trash.
B: But...part of that is because people want to be able to at least get one or two spells in before being shut down.
A: I dunno, I can do almost everything else in modern except base a deck around free counterspells. So that would help diversify the format even more.
B: Or you could just play one of the ten top decks...or one of the fringe options...or build something completely new.
Once you get past the big 4 (Aggro, control, midrange, combo) everything else is just varying combinations/versions of that. Prison is permanent based control. Tempo is aggro control which is what humans is as well. So long as there is an at least tier 2 option for each of the big 4 I don't see there being a reason to ban or unban with the purpose of improving archetype diversity.
The modern version isn't quite the same, though. There's actually multiple versions in modern and depending on which one someone is playing they tend to be more mid-range stompy, hate bear, or aggro hybrids.
Modern D&T is a midrange deck. Legacy D&T is a prison deck.
Once you get past the big 4 (Aggro, control, midrange, combo) everything else is just varying combinations/versions of that. Prison is permanent based control. Tempo is aggro control which is what humans is as well. So long as there is an at least tier 2 option for each of the big 4 I don't see there being a reason to ban or unban with the purpose of improving archetype diversity.
well we already know wizards cares about diversity within an archetype. besides the 4 macro archetype system clearly doesnt cover everything well. in fact id argue that more decks dont fit neatly into it than do.
diversity extends beyond some arbitrary label. play patterns, cards used, colors represented, card types, etc. how each of these stacks up against completely different decks, or similar strategies.
also there is a pretty big range for 'competitively viable' decks. which is not only not defined, but most people cant even agree on it when others try to.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
Once you get past the big 4 (Aggro, control, midrange, combo) everything else is just varying combinations/versions of that. Prison is permanent based control. Tempo is aggro control which is what humans is as well. So long as there is an at least tier 2 option for each of the big 4 I don't see there being a reason to ban or unban with the purpose of improving archetype diversity.
well we already know wizards cares about diversity within an archetype. besides the 4 macro archetype system clearly doesnt cover everything well. in fact id argue that more decks dont fit neatly into it than do.
diversity extends beyond some arbitrary label. play patterns, cards used, colors represented, card types, etc. how each of these stacks up against completely different decks, or similar strategies.
also there is a pretty big range for 'competitively viable' decks. which is not only not defined, but most people cant even agree on it when others try to.
The perfect meta where every single one of those categories is satisfied is impossible, though. I'd argue this is the closest we have ever been.
I honestly don’t see a compelling need to have Prison decks (as they are currently conceptualized, anyway) reaching high levels of representation. To elaborate:
When I first started playing Modern, I converted a few kitchen table decks into Modern legal decks and traded/sold off others. One of said conversions was—what else?—Mill. This was before Field of Ruin and Fraying Sanity were printed, and I felt the UB Mill decks mostly just played out like suboptimal Burn decks that auto-lost to graveyard-based opponents while sometimes getting free wins against combo decks. Thus, I started splashing W to make the deck Esper, and built it more like a Control deck, leaning more on interaction coupled with passive/incidental milling effects like Mesmeric Orb and Hedron Crab instead of targeted, one-off “Mill X” spells. As part of this strategy, I played 3x Ghostly Prison (sometimes main, sometimes side, sometimes a split).
Although I achieved good results at the local level, the deck was never more than Tier 3. But what it did give rise to was a lot of interesting decisions. You’re an aggro deck, and I just went T2 Orb into T3 Prison. Suddenly, turning ‘em all sideways isn’t a given. You’re not totally locked out from attacking, but neither is attacking consequence-free. Your decision here becomes a careful weighing of risk versus reward in which each player is incentivized to think several steps ahead.
To me, that sort of decision making is the aspirational ideal for Prison as a concept. T1/2 Blood Moon, which is a play so desirable in current Prison decks that many of them are built around making it as reliably as they can, is about as far away from that ideal as humanly possible. Until Prison decks become more about decision making on both sides of the table and less about creating games which might as well have been decided by a coin flip, I don’t think a majority of people will be too heartbroken to see their meta share remain small!
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If we want to talk about GSZ breaking things, let's talk about consistency being too powerful and T1-T3 uses; I strongly think those are the defining issues for GSZ as far as differentiation from Pact, Chord, Company, Traverse, and Evolution. Other than that, WotC specifically said they hope to increase diversity in Green decks with its banning.
In any case, Elves is also pretty flimsy. I see it nearly weekly and manage to keep the deck off resources pretty handily. As much as GSZ might make the deck better, they still need to actually achieve critical mass.
"Reveal a Dragon"
If only WOTC used such consideration in their format-altering decisions.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Spirits
I agree with your first point to an extent, because we don't know how many players registered any given deck. Such Day 1 data is all but unheard of in the GP coverage world. We're lucky to get Day 2 numbers as in GP Prague. Because of that, this type of conversion data cant play into our analysis at all. It's almost entirely a black box.
It will definitely go up once done!
Hell, we might even have some stability for a few more months!
Spirits
Im not sure SFM gives enough omph to dnt right now. Hitting an early Thalia is so very important for dealing with combo decks, so she gets the t2 priority in those matches. Against any black midrange deck, the germ token is answered very cleanly by push (as is SFM) and any RBx deck can kcommand to mop up a SFM and whatever artifact you've dumped in.
I agree another cheap tax affect will do miles more for the deck than SFM. What mystic does give the deck is some muscle to close the door, and I think that's where it's going to see most of its play if she becomes free. Creating a clock once the resources are locked up accross the table.
There is really only tax/statis (Death and Taxes, Turns?) that are missing right now. You even have a viable Prison deck, in Mono Red Pyro.
Spirits
Do you mean tax as in disruptive aggro? Because Humans is doing that. Humans is what D&T would be if white-based D&T was good. It blanks removal via meddling mage in a manner akin to mother of runes. It disrupts mana with Thalia. It offers those effects, discard, and bounce while backing it up with several cards that allow it to turn a corner very quickly.
If you are watching a legacy game where mother of runes is blanking swords to plowshares in the opponent's hand, rishadan port is tapping down their only black source, and batterskull is swinging in early to put a clock going "oh that's cool," I'd argue the answer is to play humans.
If we got a good tax effect, it would immediately get paired with Thalia and people would never stop complaining about losses to prison decks. Not everything can exist in modern. A limited, albeit large, selection of cards will lead to a limited number of decks being viable.
Spirits
I disagree. We have vryn wingmare, a non legendary in color flying tax effect at a reasonable cost seeing zero play. T3 is too slow for just a tax effect. thorn of amethyst cannot hold back aggro or help you turn the corner. We need a tax effect that impacts more than some matches for the archetype to get traction. Wingmare is a shot in the right direction, but is too slow for the decks you want to see it against (t3 cast, t4 coco/vial). Taxes should be expanded like arbiter, ghostly prison or even teeg. There is a lot of room to play with the design. I just think the cards have to have a dual purpose to do sufficiently well in the meta.
Edited for spelling*
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
If it can be handled by hate or other decks? Sure. I played Turns though, so my tastes are not in line with everyone's.
Spirits
As a D&T player I take great offense being compared to fish people.
Where fish is usually a creature deck that plays tempo, D&T is a creature deck that plays control. Every single card is designed to make your opponent hate their lives and make it harder for them to complete their gameplan. Brightling is actually a poster child of the deck. On the surface, it's a 3/3 that looks rather harmless compared to a tarmogoyf. However, want to bolt it? I buff it's toughness. Want to kill it with a revolted Fatal Push? I bounce it to hand.
Now imagine a deck that has that kind of innocuous, obnoxious kind of play with every single creature in the deck, but also with the ability to tax non-creature spells or pithing needle walkers. That is what D&T is. D&T is a deck so good at it's job that it uses Palace Jailer. Why? Because the D&T player knows he probably isn't losing the monarch token anytime soon.
The modern version isn't quite the same, though. There's actually multiple versions in modern and depending on which one someone is playing they tend to be more mid-range stompy, hate bear, or aggro hybrids.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Second, and perhaps related to the above: It's true that without fetchlands, it's a lot harder to play around Blood Moon. But do you know who that also applies to? The person using Blood Moon. Without the fetchlands, it's considerably harder to actually use Blood Moon effectively. Blood Moon might become more powerful, but we'd see a dramatic drop in decks using Blood Moon. So I actually find it unlikely that, if fetchlands were removed, Blood Moon would actually require a banning. Any gain in strength it would experience is made up for how much more narrow the decks that can use it become.
Granted, this is all hypothetical as I do not see fetchlands being banned anyway, but for the above reasons I don't think Blood Moon would be anywhere near as overpowered as some people seem to think it would be in a Modern format without fetchlands.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
Player A: I want to run mental misstep in modern
Player B: But a lot of games would be reduced to who won the turn 1 counter war
A: Sometimes, sure, but we don't have free countermagic in modern except for disrupting shoal, which is trash.
B: But...part of that is because people want to be able to at least get one or two spells in before being shut down.
A: I dunno, I can do almost everything else in modern except base a deck around free counterspells. So that would help diversify the format even more.
B: Or you could just play one of the ten top decks...or one of the fringe options...or build something completely new.
Modern D&T is a midrange deck. Legacy D&T is a prison deck.
well we already know wizards cares about diversity within an archetype. besides the 4 macro archetype system clearly doesnt cover everything well. in fact id argue that more decks dont fit neatly into it than do.
diversity extends beyond some arbitrary label. play patterns, cards used, colors represented, card types, etc. how each of these stacks up against completely different decks, or similar strategies.
also there is a pretty big range for 'competitively viable' decks. which is not only not defined, but most people cant even agree on it when others try to.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)The perfect meta where every single one of those categories is satisfied is impossible, though. I'd argue this is the closest we have ever been.
When I first started playing Modern, I converted a few kitchen table decks into Modern legal decks and traded/sold off others. One of said conversions was—what else?—Mill. This was before Field of Ruin and Fraying Sanity were printed, and I felt the UB Mill decks mostly just played out like suboptimal Burn decks that auto-lost to graveyard-based opponents while sometimes getting free wins against combo decks. Thus, I started splashing W to make the deck Esper, and built it more like a Control deck, leaning more on interaction coupled with passive/incidental milling effects like Mesmeric Orb and Hedron Crab instead of targeted, one-off “Mill X” spells. As part of this strategy, I played 3x Ghostly Prison (sometimes main, sometimes side, sometimes a split).
Although I achieved good results at the local level, the deck was never more than Tier 3. But what it did give rise to was a lot of interesting decisions. You’re an aggro deck, and I just went T2 Orb into T3 Prison. Suddenly, turning ‘em all sideways isn’t a given. You’re not totally locked out from attacking, but neither is attacking consequence-free. Your decision here becomes a careful weighing of risk versus reward in which each player is incentivized to think several steps ahead.
To me, that sort of decision making is the aspirational ideal for Prison as a concept. T1/2 Blood Moon, which is a play so desirable in current Prison decks that many of them are built around making it as reliably as they can, is about as far away from that ideal as humanly possible. Until Prison decks become more about decision making on both sides of the table and less about creating games which might as well have been decided by a coin flip, I don’t think a majority of people will be too heartbroken to see their meta share remain small!
YouTube Channel, with deck techs, gameplay, analysis, spoiler reviews, and more!