Yeah, we dont know how many Human's were there on day 1, but their day 2 numbers probably reflect a general shift to Spirits. To be honest I dont know which have better match up's against which decks.
Yeah, spirits not having 3 mana on turn 2 or 4 mana turn 3 is really detrimental to their game plan.
But let's talk about the most important banning announcement from today: Alex Bertoncini. He was hit with a lifetime ban after he apparently found a Hardened Scales off of his Ancient Stirrings during a PTQ at GP Oakland. Seems legit. Good riddance. Don't let the door hit you on the way out!
I don't want to get into the story too much here, but that absolutely is NOT what happened. He played UR Phoenix for the Main Event and the Mythic Championship Qualifier; those being the only 2 events he played in this particular weekend. A group of us were together for most of this weekend and at dinner, so I can 100% verify this.
Regarding Spirits, I personally made a huge mistake of not metagaming for them (well, my deck should already have been good against them) at the Mythic Championship Qualifier. Spirits got smashed, in my opinion, at the Grand Prix, so obviously there's going to be tons of them trying to make it up at the MCQ. I literally saw the remnants of decks that didn't Day 2 (like myself)...Humans twice, Spirits, a UR Phoenix player that was not too adept at playing...
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Yeah, spirits not having 3 mana on turn 2 or 4 mana turn 3 is really detrimental to their game plan.
But let's talk about the most important banning announcement from today: Alex Bertoncini. He was hit with a lifetime ban after he apparently found a Hardened Scales off of his Ancient Stirrings during a PTQ at GP Oakland. Seems legit. Good riddance. Don't let the door hit you on the way out!
I don't want to get into the story too much here, but that absolutely is NOT what happened. He played UR Phoenix for the Main Event and the Mythic Championship Qualifier; those being the only 2 events he played in this particular weekend. A group of us were together for most of this weekend and at dinner, so I can 100% verify this.
That's the story going around Twitter. Would love to hear the real story.
In the past 4 months, Alex, his group, myself and my group have all become pretty well acquainted. Alex is the type of guy that at a local event will offer to play you between rounds with his own Premodern decks even after you've beaten him. He's always been cool to me, even after I've barely beaten him or thoroughly smashed him to 3-3 at a SCG Team Event.)
You have to also realize that Cedric Phillips, among other Pro Players and important voices, have constantly bashed Alex on Twitter. It is to the point of bullying - the same thing that gets others banned. But it's Alex, so who cares? He doesn't have any feelings. He's a robot that was made to cheat.
The incident is during a Modern Staples Event 2 weeks before in which he finished 3-3, he cast Ancient Stirrings in Round 5. He went to put Hardened Scales in his hand and started to put the other cards on the bottom when his opponent noticed that it was an illegal target. They resolved it and he got a legal target. It was completely resolved between Alex and his opponent. Later on, the Judge, who also drove to the event with Alex, had an investigation about what happened. His opponent told some higher ups at the event about it and they reported him to the DCI to do an investigation. I guess this is the result of that investigation. I saw a few of Alex's matches this weekend because mine ended early and we were in the same events. I saw nothing wrong that he did to his opponents and most of his opponents seemed to treat Alex fairly, as he did them. I'm not sure if this has anything to do with the report, but Alex also got 2nd place in the Legacy Staples event the previous day, barely losing on Camera to one of the Store's Team players. I also did not see a single thing Alex did wrong, although some people hate to see him succeed because then they would have to acknowledge that he is actually a pretty good player. Believe me, it took ME a while to believe it myself. I had heard on the internet that he was just an "average player, but good cheater," so it put him up there. This is not the case at all and Alex has made a statement to the DCI previous to this, as well as going to a Judge conference to help them identify the thoughts behind a cheater. He has tried to prove to people that he is reformed, but I think his sloppy play or potential cheating has stopped this from happening.
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Well if he DID make that 'mistake' which...is not an easy one to make, he certainly has burnt up any reasonable doubt credit, so I would not be surprised if thats what got him.
I can understand that. I don't blame anyone for feeling any kind of way about Alex. I just have a different experience now.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
I can understand that. I don't blame anyone for feeling any kind of way about Alex. I just have a different experience now.
Its not a unique one from what I've read elsewhere. A lot of people liked him as a person, but he's been caught or 'made mistakes' how many times?
Regardless, I dont know that its 'State of Modern' so, oh well.
One last thing I'll add that, as a complete outsider, I have read that his friendly, outgoing, and extremely personable attitude is specifically what he uses in order to cheat (his methods usually being "sloppy mistakes" done with absolute certainty). And that most people who have been cheated either don't realize it, or even side with him (as in the 2 Explores video). He could be the nicest person on the planet, but he uses that trait to take advantage of people and exploit opponents in order to cheat in sanctioned Magic. It is the textbook con man. No matter how good a player he may be, every accomplishment he has ever "earned" will have an asterisk next to it, and it is no fault but his own.
Back to Modern... so.... KCI getting banned, right?
UR Phoenix won though, so I think KCI is safe. I've heard from some people from my local store that Faithless Looting is more of a problem than Ancient Stirrings. I personally don't think so. Faithless Looting is at least somewhat hurt by grave hate while Ancient Stirrings is hurt by … super quick goldfish decks. I will say that Faithless Looting is definitely a hell of a card though!
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
UR Phoenix won though, so I think KCI is safe. I've heard from some people from my local store that Faithless Looting is more of a problem than Ancient Stirrings. I personally don't think so. Faithless Looting is at least somewhat hurt by grave hate while Ancient Stirrings is hurt by … super quick goldfish decks. I will say that Faithless Looting is definitely a hell of a card though!
Speaking purely for GP T8 numbers and nothing else, Looting isn't nearly as prevalent as Stirrings throughout 2018. If we compare all Lootings decks throughout the entire year to all Stirrings decks over the same time period, we find Stirrings at 27.3% of the T8 decks and Looting at 14.8%. SV/Opt decks are 21%. If you exclude the Team and PT events and look just at individual GP, it's 29.8% Stirrings, 13.5% Looting, and 21.1% SV/Opt. There's just no annual perspective where Looting is dominant at this level.
to the guy who wanted manamorphose banned, Why ban manamorphose over looting? It just nets even on mana and cards unlike looting which enables 10 power into play turn 1 to 2? Storms not even a good deck anymore
What deck is hated the most is a metric you don't have and there are thousands if not millions of players that haven't enjoy the misery of EOT Exarch into Twin, since they started playing after it got banned.
I want you to reread this sentence, because it's hilariously hypocritical.
Besides that wasn't even my point. Twin is problematic according to Wizards because they banned it. The optics that come if they unban a problematic deck to fix another problematic deck (that might not be even a problem) and also allow Twin to cover up the lack of answers in the format (which it did before) is even worse. Then comes what the community thinks and the "hatemail" Wizards will endure, because clearly the Twin topic is still controversial, 3 years after it's banning.
A card or deck is not problematic just because it was banned. It means WotC thought it was problematic. They've been wrong. They were wrong about Wild Nacatl, Bitterblossom, Bloodbraid Elf, Sword of the Meek, Ancestral Vision, Valakut, and JTMS. I think they're wrong about SFM, and possibly GSZ and Pod. And I think they were wrong about Twin.
You posit that Twin would slow down the format and then suggest that it wouldn't play cards to fight in that slowed down format? Twin will absolutely play Azcanta and/or Ancestral. Azcanta might be good even in the main because it helps all 3 plans of the deck. They, along with Jace are perfect cards to fight through their worst matchups (and by worst we're talking about 45-55). Jace is "ok" in Modern in the sense that it didn't break it. It's one of the best decks in the control decks that play it and it'll be one of the best in Twin for the grindy matchups.
Why would Twin play Ancestral? Even UW Control and Jeskai don't play the card, and if they don't then Twin definitely wouldn't. Azcanta is a slow control card. Twin's maindeck was a tempo/combo shell. You only had so many sideboard slots for control cards against the fair matchups, so what is Azcanta replacing? Are you playing it instead of Jace? How about instead of Keranos? Are you cutting Dispels or removal that kills 5 toughness creatures? The Twin main deck was focused on being able to assemble the combo asap. Azcanta would have been too slow for the main deck even back in 2015, it's way too slow today, and I just don't see what I would want to cut for Azcanta. And Jace is only really played in UW Control because it enables Terminus. You might have noticed how Jeskai doesn't play him at all.
Twin is not safe now for the same reasons it wasn't then; for fear of being the best deck in the format and hiding the inherent problems of the format behind a mask of "interactiveness" and the idea that it will force other decks to interact with it.
The second and third best decks of 2015 hardly see any play at all these days, so what Twin was in 2015 tells you nothing about what it would be in 2019. The fact of the matter is that there were a few powerful things to do in Modern in 2015, so the best 5 or 6 decks took up much more of the meta than the top 5 or 6 today. Modern is overall much more powerful than it was in 2015, and the power is spread out over far more archetypes. There is no chance that Twin comes back and dominates this Modern format. It didn't even dominate in 2018, it was just very good. In fact, I think most people in here will agree with me that Twin wasn't even the best deck in later 2015, it was Amulet Bloom.
And Twin would not "hide the problems with the format." It would help to fix them. That's like saying medicine only hides your problems when you start to get better. Part of the problem with Modern is the lack of police decks punishing linear aggro/combo decks that don't want to interact, thus why Modern has kept tending towards drag racing. Humans and GDS are both decks that help in this regard, but they're obviously not enough. Maybe Twin could be a third police deck and open up some more room for slower interactive decks in the meta.
I like the irony though. People were saying that the 3 UW control Top 8 in June was a fluke and a regional oddity, same as the 3 Twin Top 8, but KCI has 4 -one from the man that won 2 GPs with it- and the unban Twin pitchforks are out. The playing definitely wasn't suited to beat KCI or artifact decks in general, why isn't this top 8 considered a fluke.
The Twin triple top 8 happened in a warped meta, but it wasn't warped by Twin, it was warped by Amulet Bloom. That's like banning Living End because it had a triple GP top 8 weekend during Eldrazi Winter. The UW Control triple top 8 was proven to be a regional oddity. It's been successful the rest of the year, but not to that extent. Meanwhile, KCI was the most successful deck of 2018, despite seeing pretty low amounts of play overall because of how tedious it is. 4 in the top 8 could be a bit of variance, or we could be seeing the beginnings of another problem.
I doubt terminus encourages interaction in the format as a whole. Creature based midrange such as GWx simply lose to Terminus. The best creature decks now are able to threaten the kill fast enough to force the 'Terminus now or lose' situations. Slower interactive GWx decks such as Value Town, Bant Midrange, Big Zoo can't do that.
"In response to your Miracle trigger, Chord for 2?" And I don't know what you want me to tell you, but slow durdly midrange decks aren't supposed to beat blue control, because it's even slower and more durdley than you, lol.
Twin was far more of the meta in those days, than any deck today gets up to. Would not be surprised if it was upwards of 15-20%?
Twin was 10-11% for most of 2015, and peaked at 12% at the end of the year before it was banned, but that was largely because it was the only top tier deck that could beat Amulet Bloom. And I should specify that the 12% figure was all variations of Twin combined. UR Twin was the most successful version by far, and it was never more than like 6.5% of the meta. Meanwhile, Abzan and Jund Midrange combined for around 14% of the meta, but no action was taken against GBx Midrange. It's almost as if WotC's diversity justification in the ban announcement was a cover for another reason
And yes, Humans and GDS both reached similar metashares in the past two years.
GDS is slightly favoured because discard spells, cheap counterspells and a fast clock are very good against UR Bird but they also can kill you easily with a nutdraw with multiple Phoenixes and burn spells.
It's almost as if WotC's diversity justification in the ban announcement was a cover for another reason
On the one hand, this is really all there is to say about the Twin ban if you can only say one sentence. In summary, Wizards wanted to shake up the 2016 PT by removing a perceived best deck that many pros would likely have piloted. Given the 2015 evidence we looked at in 2016, it is likely that this decision took precedence over other factors that may have contributed to a Twin ban. This is particularly pronounced in years since then, when other decks have reached Twin metagame levels but have dodged ban scrutiny. I imagine the card would not have been banned without the PT as an influencing factor, but we will never know. The bar to unban it is not simply proving that the unban was unjustified at the time, so it's sort of a moot point.
On the other hand, it comes off as disingenuous to claim that Twin would not use and/or benefit to an unknown degree from new cards. I'm not going to spend 30 minutes researching multiple iterations of this thread to quote specific users, and will just use Wraith's post as an example above where he suggests Twin would not use AV. Maybe it would, maybe it wouldn't. We really have no idea. As GK pointed out, Twin stands to benefit in some degree from Opt, Teferi, Ral, JTMS, AV, Field, and a host of SB and specialized cards. There is no deck, not even tried and true Affinity, that has not adopted new cards since 2015 and evolved to use that technology. You can argue for a Twin unban while also acknowledging that Twin would probably leverage multiple new tools in ways we might not even foresee. It does not hurt the unban argument to say "Twin might use AV/Teferi/JTMS/etc.; lots of powerful decks leverage new cards and Modern is a powerful format" or something to that effect.
Well, I didn't say it would get no new cards, but I don't think the additions to Twin in the last three years have kept pace with Modern's overall power level. Just going for me personally, the only maindeck changes I would make would be swapping SV for Opt, which is really a sidegrade, and I might play a single copy of Field of Ruin. UR Twin could only afford to play 2 colorless utility lands because you needed RR and UUU by turn 4, and at least one of those is still going to be Loothouse. Ral is a really interesting suggestion for the board, but I don't think you're playing both him and Jace. It's probably one or the other. I think Ral might actually be better since he can kill big creatures, which was always a big weakness of Twin. It's something I would have to test.
Here's the problem with a lot of the sideboard ideas people have about what Twin would play: the old Twin sideboard had a specific number of slots for very specific purposes, and there's another big problem today that I'll get to in a second. I went back and looked at my old list, and some old lists of Twin players I respected, and here's how the sideboards (mostly) lined up:
2 or 3 pieces of artifact hate
2 sweepers
2 resilient finishers (Keranos)
2 Blood Moon
1 card advantage engine
0 or 1 mirror card (usually Rending Volley)
0 or 1 anti-control cards
1 or 2 ways to deal with big creatures
2 counterspells
0 or 1 small creature hate (Lavamancer or Staticaster)
0 or 1 Spellskite
So you had 12 slots pretty firm and 3 flex slots where you had to decide between an extra piece of artifact hate, a mirror card, an anti-control card (Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir), another way to deal with Tarmogoyf, a Lavamancer or Staticaster, and a Spellskite. And now here's the problem I mentioned earlier: graveyard decks weren't really a thing back in 2015. You would need slots for graveyard hate today. I would probably play a couple Surgical Extractions in Twin today. I probably do want an anti-control card, since control is so much better today than it was in 2015. That would leave me with like 1 or no flex slots.
So when people say things like (and I'm not picking on you Gkourou, it's something pretty commonly said), "Twin would play some AVs, JTMS, and Azcanta in their board today," I just say to them: look at that list and tell me where there's room for all that. There was room for 1 maybe 2 card advantage engines for the fair matchups. If you want to jam more you're taking away from cards for other matchups. Now, maybe you can combine some of those categories with new cards. Like, Abrade can be both artifact hate and small creature removal. JTMS can be both card advantage and a finisher (although he's not nearly as resilient as Keranos). Ral could be card advantage, a finisher, AND a way to deal with big creatures (I like him even more the more I think about it). There's basically no way I'm playing AV over either Jace or Ral, so that's not even worth thinking about in my opinion. So the sideboard could have some more flexibility these days, but you also have more demands on it. This is why I say that Twin is better than it was in 2015 overall, but not at the same pace that Modern as a whole has grown in power. So contextually I don't think Twin would be as good in Modern in 2019 as it was in 2015.
And honestly, I don't think Grixis Twin would be better than UR, even in 2019. Grixis Twin was better against Jund and in the mirror, but UR was way better against the linear aggro/combo decks because it had a more consistent combo plan. Modern isn't about grinding, so I don't see how the Grixis build would be better than the Izzet build, at least not immediately. Maybe if Twin is able to team up with Humans/Spirits and GDS to pull the reins on the format and slow it down, then Grixis might become better. Push isn't really that huge of an upgrade, though. Grixis Twin had access to Terminate already, so they didn't really have trouble killing big creatures like UR did. I'm not sure you want to cut Bolts for Push, so maybe you cut a couple Terminates, but I don't think you'd want to cut all of them, or else you'd make yourself cold to 5+ cmc creatures with toughness over 3.
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
I don't think you could afford to play 8 cantrips, it would probably be a 4-2 split. And yeah, I would maybe play 1 Field of Ruin, I would probably play one or two Abrade, two of Ral and Jace in some combination, and probably 1 Ceremonious Rejection. So we're talking like 7 cards different out of 75, which are just incremental improvements. There hasn't been anything released or printed that just busts the old Twin shell open.
And of course it would have weaknesses, it would have the same weaknesses it always had: decks that are interactive and have a fast clock, and decks that are really interactive with slower clocks.
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
This new spoiler, Salamander Drake is potentially huge for eternal formats. Yes, it would be even better if it said "yard of exile". Still, in Legacy you can pitch if to FOW. In Modern, UR Phoenix surely takes the card as 1-2 copies in the mainboard. Maybe some other decks I don't currently see? Mono U delver brews or other delver brews?
U has been missing a good creature, save Delver of secrets, which is not good in a non brainstorm format anyways, for years! Could this be it?
PS: Please don't give me the old dies to removal speech! I need this to be good!
I am not sure most decks that would play it can us Gurmag Angler instead right. This only triggers off Socrecries and Instants whereas Gurmag can also exile fetch lands
FYI, Disdainful Stroke is from KTK, and was printed nearly a year and a half before the Twin ban. And Opt is objectively worse at digging for critical pieces than Serum Visions. Ancestral Vision is trash and remains trash, with or without Twin. And while Ceremonious Rejection is new, so are literally dozens of toys for the decks that Rejection would be used against. Field of Ruin is OK at best, but pretty terrible if playing Blood Moon. Jace (either), Ral, and Keranos are just random, interchangeable "good in grindy matchups" cards. None of them are particularly spectacular over the others and out of all 4 cards, you are likely only running 0-2 copies total between all of them. The only meaningful card is likely Abrade, since it hits Spellskite. Everything else is a side step. And most of the time, Abrade is an expensive Lightning Bolt that can't hit opponents.
to the guy who wanted manamorphose banned, Why ban manamorphose over looting? It just nets even on mana and cards unlike looting which enables 10 power into play turn 1 to 2? Storms not even a good deck anymore
Cause a Looting ban hits way more decks way harder than Manamorphose (which would hurt Phoenix by a lot and basically kill Storm). That would be the ban, if you would want to nerf Phoenix, cause it would have the least impact otherwise on the format (cause it only hits Storm and some very fringe decks).
Greetings,
Kathal
PS: Totally agree with @gkourou btw, while I would love to play against Twin again (cause it was such a good match-up ), especially the Grixis version would be problematic nowadays, Push and Cast Down fixes so many problems the deck previously had.
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What I play or have:
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
I'll sleeve up a Grixis Twin list and play some games with my buddy who plays Rock and Dredge and let you know. I'm pretty sure UR would be the better shell, though. I think you're overestimating what Push does to the shell. Grixis had access to all the cards you're talking about with it before, and it wasn't as good as UR then. The deck's problem was not killing creatures, so I don't see how Push bumps it above UR.
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
to the guy who wanted manamorphose banned, Why ban manamorphose over looting? It just nets even on mana and cards unlike looting which enables 10 power into play turn 1 to 2? Storms not even a good deck anymore
Cause a Looting ban hits way more decks way harder than Manamorphose (which would hurt Phoenix by a lot and basically kill Storm). That would be the ban, if you would want to nerf Phoenix, cause it would have the least impact otherwise on the format (cause it only hits Storm and some very fringe decks).
Greetings,
Kathal
PS: Totally agree with @gkourou btw, while I would love to play against Twin again (cause it was such a good match-up ), especially the Grixis version would be problematic nowadays, Push and Cast Down fixes so many problems the deck previously had.
I don't think there needs to be any ban right now but if there would be the need for a ban, shouldn't we aim at the core of the issue? Cantrips are quite easily replaceable so the deck would still be able to perform really well. Take Treasure Cruise as an example, people were already happy to play fetchlands and cantrips in their Delver xerox decks, getting an almost free payout was what made those decks busted, and they banned the busted payout card, not one random enabler that didn't see more than fringe play before the busted card was printed so in that scenario it would make much more sense to ban Arclight Phoenix and not Manamorphose
@gkourou Saying Grixis Twin is better since it has access to Fatal Push and that it would be the best deck of a format that doesn't even exists yet is quite absurd. First you ignore the problems that come from a 3-color manabase and the choices you would have to make while deckbuilding that will likely affect how the deck performs, it isn't very clear to me that would be the path, I could envision wanting black for discard to protect the combo, not for cheap removal. But the most shocking thing for me is that you think you can foresee what the best deck would be when we have absolutely no idea how the format would shape if that would be the case. Who expected KCI to become such a powerful deck when Scrap Trawler was printed? I would guess not many people. And it's the same with most previous unbans: WotC unbans Bitterblossom -> People go crazy thinking Faeries is going to be insane -> Tier 2 deck at best
I think I agree, Grixis Twin would be where it's at.
You also have to look at how other decks would adjust. Grixis Shadow is adjusted to THIS meta. Grixis Shadow could grind like crazy in it's old build as long as you weren't UWx.
With Shadow around, I don't feel like UR Twin would be the way to go anymore.
Grixis could afford to maybe play---2 field of ruins?
I doubt AV would be played. Jace, however, would be pretty sweet. Would you guys really play the new Ral over Keranos or Jace, though?
Wraith, a turn 2 Goyf used to be disastrous for Twin with a turn 1 to turn 3 discard. I can't imagine UR Twin being happy at the sight of Shadow.
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Spirits
I don't want to get into the story too much here, but that absolutely is NOT what happened. He played UR Phoenix for the Main Event and the Mythic Championship Qualifier; those being the only 2 events he played in this particular weekend. A group of us were together for most of this weekend and at dinner, so I can 100% verify this.
Regarding Spirits, I personally made a huge mistake of not metagaming for them (well, my deck should already have been good against them) at the Mythic Championship Qualifier. Spirits got smashed, in my opinion, at the Grand Prix, so obviously there's going to be tons of them trying to make it up at the MCQ. I literally saw the remnants of decks that didn't Day 2 (like myself)...Humans twice, Spirits, a UR Phoenix player that was not too adept at playing...
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Spirits
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
You have to also realize that Cedric Phillips, among other Pro Players and important voices, have constantly bashed Alex on Twitter. It is to the point of bullying - the same thing that gets others banned. But it's Alex, so who cares? He doesn't have any feelings. He's a robot that was made to cheat.
The incident is during a Modern Staples Event 2 weeks before in which he finished 3-3, he cast Ancient Stirrings in Round 5. He went to put Hardened Scales in his hand and started to put the other cards on the bottom when his opponent noticed that it was an illegal target. They resolved it and he got a legal target. It was completely resolved between Alex and his opponent. Later on, the Judge, who also drove to the event with Alex, had an investigation about what happened. His opponent told some higher ups at the event about it and they reported him to the DCI to do an investigation. I guess this is the result of that investigation. I saw a few of Alex's matches this weekend because mine ended early and we were in the same events. I saw nothing wrong that he did to his opponents and most of his opponents seemed to treat Alex fairly, as he did them. I'm not sure if this has anything to do with the report, but Alex also got 2nd place in the Legacy Staples event the previous day, barely losing on Camera to one of the Store's Team players. I also did not see a single thing Alex did wrong, although some people hate to see him succeed because then they would have to acknowledge that he is actually a pretty good player. Believe me, it took ME a while to believe it myself. I had heard on the internet that he was just an "average player, but good cheater," so it put him up there. This is not the case at all and Alex has made a statement to the DCI previous to this, as well as going to a Judge conference to help them identify the thoughts behind a cheater. He has tried to prove to people that he is reformed, but I think his sloppy play or potential cheating has stopped this from happening.
Lots of Spirits and Humans at the MCQ.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Spirits
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Its not a unique one from what I've read elsewhere. A lot of people liked him as a person, but he's been caught or 'made mistakes' how many times?
Regardless, I dont know that its 'State of Modern' so, oh well.
Spirits
One last thing I'll add that, as a complete outsider, I have read that his friendly, outgoing, and extremely personable attitude is specifically what he uses in order to cheat (his methods usually being "sloppy mistakes" done with absolute certainty). And that most people who have been cheated either don't realize it, or even side with him (as in the 2 Explores video). He could be the nicest person on the planet, but he uses that trait to take advantage of people and exploit opponents in order to cheat in sanctioned Magic. It is the textbook con man. No matter how good a player he may be, every accomplishment he has ever "earned" will have an asterisk next to it, and it is no fault but his own.
Back to Modern... so.... KCI getting banned, right?
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Spirits
Speaking purely for GP T8 numbers and nothing else, Looting isn't nearly as prevalent as Stirrings throughout 2018. If we compare all Lootings decks throughout the entire year to all Stirrings decks over the same time period, we find Stirrings at 27.3% of the T8 decks and Looting at 14.8%. SV/Opt decks are 21%. If you exclude the Team and PT events and look just at individual GP, it's 29.8% Stirrings, 13.5% Looting, and 21.1% SV/Opt. There's just no annual perspective where Looting is dominant at this level.
A card or deck is not problematic just because it was banned. It means WotC thought it was problematic. They've been wrong. They were wrong about Wild Nacatl, Bitterblossom, Bloodbraid Elf, Sword of the Meek, Ancestral Vision, Valakut, and JTMS. I think they're wrong about SFM, and possibly GSZ and Pod. And I think they were wrong about Twin.
Why would Twin play Ancestral? Even UW Control and Jeskai don't play the card, and if they don't then Twin definitely wouldn't. Azcanta is a slow control card. Twin's maindeck was a tempo/combo shell. You only had so many sideboard slots for control cards against the fair matchups, so what is Azcanta replacing? Are you playing it instead of Jace? How about instead of Keranos? Are you cutting Dispels or removal that kills 5 toughness creatures? The Twin main deck was focused on being able to assemble the combo asap. Azcanta would have been too slow for the main deck even back in 2015, it's way too slow today, and I just don't see what I would want to cut for Azcanta. And Jace is only really played in UW Control because it enables Terminus. You might have noticed how Jeskai doesn't play him at all.
The second and third best decks of 2015 hardly see any play at all these days, so what Twin was in 2015 tells you nothing about what it would be in 2019. The fact of the matter is that there were a few powerful things to do in Modern in 2015, so the best 5 or 6 decks took up much more of the meta than the top 5 or 6 today. Modern is overall much more powerful than it was in 2015, and the power is spread out over far more archetypes. There is no chance that Twin comes back and dominates this Modern format. It didn't even dominate in 2018, it was just very good. In fact, I think most people in here will agree with me that Twin wasn't even the best deck in later 2015, it was Amulet Bloom.
And Twin would not "hide the problems with the format." It would help to fix them. That's like saying medicine only hides your problems when you start to get better. Part of the problem with Modern is the lack of police decks punishing linear aggro/combo decks that don't want to interact, thus why Modern has kept tending towards drag racing. Humans and GDS are both decks that help in this regard, but they're obviously not enough. Maybe Twin could be a third police deck and open up some more room for slower interactive decks in the meta.
The Twin triple top 8 happened in a warped meta, but it wasn't warped by Twin, it was warped by Amulet Bloom. That's like banning Living End because it had a triple GP top 8 weekend during Eldrazi Winter. The UW Control triple top 8 was proven to be a regional oddity. It's been successful the rest of the year, but not to that extent. Meanwhile, KCI was the most successful deck of 2018, despite seeing pretty low amounts of play overall because of how tedious it is. 4 in the top 8 could be a bit of variance, or we could be seeing the beginnings of another problem.
Is GDS actually good against Phoenix? I haven't played the matchup yet.
"In response to your Miracle trigger, Chord for 2?" And I don't know what you want me to tell you, but slow durdly midrange decks aren't supposed to beat blue control, because it's even slower and more durdley than you, lol.
Twin was 10-11% for most of 2015, and peaked at 12% at the end of the year before it was banned, but that was largely because it was the only top tier deck that could beat Amulet Bloom. And I should specify that the 12% figure was all variations of Twin combined. UR Twin was the most successful version by far, and it was never more than like 6.5% of the meta. Meanwhile, Abzan and Jund Midrange combined for around 14% of the meta, but no action was taken against GBx Midrange. It's almost as if WotC's diversity justification in the ban announcement was a cover for another reason
And yes, Humans and GDS both reached similar metashares in the past two years.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
Legacy: UWR Miracles [https://deckstats.net/decks/44442/1092831-uwr-miracles-2]
On the one hand, this is really all there is to say about the Twin ban if you can only say one sentence. In summary, Wizards wanted to shake up the 2016 PT by removing a perceived best deck that many pros would likely have piloted. Given the 2015 evidence we looked at in 2016, it is likely that this decision took precedence over other factors that may have contributed to a Twin ban. This is particularly pronounced in years since then, when other decks have reached Twin metagame levels but have dodged ban scrutiny. I imagine the card would not have been banned without the PT as an influencing factor, but we will never know. The bar to unban it is not simply proving that the unban was unjustified at the time, so it's sort of a moot point.
On the other hand, it comes off as disingenuous to claim that Twin would not use and/or benefit to an unknown degree from new cards. I'm not going to spend 30 minutes researching multiple iterations of this thread to quote specific users, and will just use Wraith's post as an example above where he suggests Twin would not use AV. Maybe it would, maybe it wouldn't. We really have no idea. As GK pointed out, Twin stands to benefit in some degree from Opt, Teferi, Ral, JTMS, AV, Field, and a host of SB and specialized cards. There is no deck, not even tried and true Affinity, that has not adopted new cards since 2015 and evolved to use that technology. You can argue for a Twin unban while also acknowledging that Twin would probably leverage multiple new tools in ways we might not even foresee. It does not hurt the unban argument to say "Twin might use AV/Teferi/JTMS/etc.; lots of powerful decks leverage new cards and Modern is a powerful format" or something to that effect.
Here's the problem with a lot of the sideboard ideas people have about what Twin would play: the old Twin sideboard had a specific number of slots for very specific purposes, and there's another big problem today that I'll get to in a second. I went back and looked at my old list, and some old lists of Twin players I respected, and here's how the sideboards (mostly) lined up:
2 or 3 pieces of artifact hate
2 sweepers
2 resilient finishers (Keranos)
2 Blood Moon
1 card advantage engine
0 or 1 mirror card (usually Rending Volley)
0 or 1 anti-control cards
1 or 2 ways to deal with big creatures
2 counterspells
0 or 1 small creature hate (Lavamancer or Staticaster)
0 or 1 Spellskite
So you had 12 slots pretty firm and 3 flex slots where you had to decide between an extra piece of artifact hate, a mirror card, an anti-control card (Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir), another way to deal with Tarmogoyf, a Lavamancer or Staticaster, and a Spellskite. And now here's the problem I mentioned earlier: graveyard decks weren't really a thing back in 2015. You would need slots for graveyard hate today. I would probably play a couple Surgical Extractions in Twin today. I probably do want an anti-control card, since control is so much better today than it was in 2015. That would leave me with like 1 or no flex slots.
So when people say things like (and I'm not picking on you Gkourou, it's something pretty commonly said), "Twin would play some AVs, JTMS, and Azcanta in their board today," I just say to them: look at that list and tell me where there's room for all that. There was room for 1 maybe 2 card advantage engines for the fair matchups. If you want to jam more you're taking away from cards for other matchups. Now, maybe you can combine some of those categories with new cards. Like, Abrade can be both artifact hate and small creature removal. JTMS can be both card advantage and a finisher (although he's not nearly as resilient as Keranos). Ral could be card advantage, a finisher, AND a way to deal with big creatures (I like him even more the more I think about it). There's basically no way I'm playing AV over either Jace or Ral, so that's not even worth thinking about in my opinion. So the sideboard could have some more flexibility these days, but you also have more demands on it. This is why I say that Twin is better than it was in 2015 overall, but not at the same pace that Modern as a whole has grown in power. So contextually I don't think Twin would be as good in Modern in 2019 as it was in 2015.
And honestly, I don't think Grixis Twin would be better than UR, even in 2019. Grixis Twin was better against Jund and in the mirror, but UR was way better against the linear aggro/combo decks because it had a more consistent combo plan. Modern isn't about grinding, so I don't see how the Grixis build would be better than the Izzet build, at least not immediately. Maybe if Twin is able to team up with Humans/Spirits and GDS to pull the reins on the format and slow it down, then Grixis might become better. Push isn't really that huge of an upgrade, though. Grixis Twin had access to Terminate already, so they didn't really have trouble killing big creatures like UR did. I'm not sure you want to cut Bolts for Push, so maybe you cut a couple Terminates, but I don't think you'd want to cut all of them, or else you'd make yourself cold to 5+ cmc creatures with toughness over 3.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
And of course it would have weaknesses, it would have the same weaknesses it always had: decks that are interactive and have a fast clock, and decks that are really interactive with slower clocks.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
I am not sure most decks that would play it can us Gurmag Angler instead right. This only triggers off Socrecries and Instants whereas Gurmag can also exile fetch lands
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Greetings,
Kathal
PS: Totally agree with @gkourou btw, while I would love to play against Twin again (cause it was such a good match-up ), especially the Grixis version would be problematic nowadays, Push and Cast Down fixes so many problems the deck previously had.
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
I don't think there needs to be any ban right now but if there would be the need for a ban, shouldn't we aim at the core of the issue? Cantrips are quite easily replaceable so the deck would still be able to perform really well. Take Treasure Cruise as an example, people were already happy to play fetchlands and cantrips in their Delver xerox decks, getting an almost free payout was what made those decks busted, and they banned the busted payout card, not one random enabler that didn't see more than fringe play before the busted card was printed so in that scenario it would make much more sense to ban Arclight Phoenix and not Manamorphose
@gkourou Saying Grixis Twin is better since it has access to Fatal Push and that it would be the best deck of a format that doesn't even exists yet is quite absurd. First you ignore the problems that come from a 3-color manabase and the choices you would have to make while deckbuilding that will likely affect how the deck performs, it isn't very clear to me that would be the path, I could envision wanting black for discard to protect the combo, not for cheap removal. But the most shocking thing for me is that you think you can foresee what the best deck would be when we have absolutely no idea how the format would shape if that would be the case. Who expected KCI to become such a powerful deck when Scrap Trawler was printed? I would guess not many people. And it's the same with most previous unbans: WotC unbans Bitterblossom -> People go crazy thinking Faeries is going to be insane -> Tier 2 deck at best
You also have to look at how other decks would adjust. Grixis Shadow is adjusted to THIS meta. Grixis Shadow could grind like crazy in it's old build as long as you weren't UWx.
With Shadow around, I don't feel like UR Twin would be the way to go anymore.
Grixis could afford to maybe play---2 field of ruins?
I doubt AV would be played. Jace, however, would be pretty sweet. Would you guys really play the new Ral over Keranos or Jace, though?
Wraith, a turn 2 Goyf used to be disastrous for Twin with a turn 1 to turn 3 discard. I can't imagine UR Twin being happy at the sight of Shadow.