both pride themselves on a pretty even matchup spread, but i think spirits has it better than humans in that regard. the edges that humans have are:
-better generic curve out aggro draws (spirits has a higher curve and more threats it might want to hold back)
-humans has more potent disruption; meaning its advantages are more pronounced.
mausoleum wanderer and queller are nice and what not, but they dont have the same impact as thalia, freebooter, and meddling mage locking down a game. spirits gets its edge in fighting through removal. another plus you didnt mention in spirits favor is its sideboard.
i think spirits is on track to overtake humans, but its only 6ish months into its lifespan.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
I think that may be a general outline, but there are decks that get wrecked by Mausoleum Wanderer. Spell based decks like Grishoalbrand and Storm get destroyed by that lil ****er.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Modern is really devolving into an ugly format. This is definitely going to lead to huge bans or something huge unbanned. Modern decks are maindecking grave hate, playing 4x leylines or large amounts of GY hate.
Does anyone think something can or will break this up? Are we reacting too fast?
Banning Stirrings and looting at once would almost cause a riot.
Modern is really devolving into an ugly format. This is definitely going to lead to huge bans or something huge unbanned. Modern decks are maindecking grave hate, playing 4x leylines or large amounts of GY hate.
Does anyone think something can or will break this up? Are we reacting too fast?
Banning Stirrings and looting at once would almost cause a riot.
If you ban Stirrings, you lower the consistent dig for 3 decks.
Tron and G Affinity go Oath of Nissa.
KCI may go blue, for Whir?
Lantern, same.
Looting? You kill any Phoenix deck, probably kill Mardu, hurt Dredge, but oddly just slow Hollow One.
The answer to me, is simple. People simply refuse to accept it.
SFM would do the same as Jace/BBE. A slight spike in fair decks, until they realize there are decks putting out 3 Hollow Ones, a Gurmag Angler, and 2 Arclights and swinging with all of them on TURN 3.
Thank god Wizards has saved us from the oppressive SFM.
I am NOT calling for a ban, let's get that out in the open.....but does anyone else think Hollow One is a problem? a really god hand for that deck is not so far from a really good hand for pre-ban Eldrazi. We talk about the different enablers for it and how brutal that deck is and now they have Phoenix. I don't play against it much, only the one guy in my LGS, but there seems to be a LOT of talk about banning different cards because they enable multiple Hollow Ones by turn 2. Again, NOT calling for a ban, the deck doesn't bother me, but wouldn't it be possibly better to let them rely on the rest of the brutal beaters in the deck and keep the enablers for a lot of oddball decks around, just get rid of the most busted of the payoff cards?
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Yikes, this thread has gotten even more hyperbolic and memey in the past 12 hours. Nothing actually changed from a data perspective around the banlist update, which supports my fear that much of this uproar is likely sensational reactionism. Stuff like the inane "Magic as Garfield intended" meme needs to disappear from this thread. It lowers the quality of discussion and makes it difficult to have meaningful conversations about the actual state of Modern. Same with posting meaningless screencaps of best case games where decks are running hot.
Should SFM be unbanned? Yes, definitely. I'm sure it will be unbanned next year depending on the PT timing. GSZ? Twin? Let's talk more. Modern will probably be just fine until then. If we get another awful GP T32 like ATL, then sure, it's time to really have serious conversations about format health. But we can't just go insane every time we get one bad event and then a "No Changes" update. 2018 was overall an excellent year for Modern. Let's not let the last month negate the previous 10 because we want some card unbanned or dislike a deck that is doing well.
Yikes, this thread has gotten even more hyperbolic and memey in the past 12 hours. Nothing actually changed from a data perspective around the banlist update, which supports my fear that much of this uproar is likely sensational reactionism. Stuff like the inane "Magic as Garfield intended" meme needs to disappear from this thread. It lowers the quality of discussion and makes it difficult to have meaningful conversations about the actual state of Modern. Same with posting meaningless screencaps of best case games where decks are running hot.
Should SFM be unbanned? Yes, definitely. I'm sure it will be unbanned next year depending on the PT timing. GSZ? Twin? Let's talk more. Modern will probably be just fine until then. If we get another awful GP T32 like ATL, then sure, it's time to really have serious conversations about format health. But we can't just go insane every time we get one bad event and then a "No Changes" update. 2018 was overall an excellent year for Modern. Let's not let the last month negate the previous 10 because we want some card unbanned or dislike a deck that is doing well.
I think the issue is that even if Modern is doing well (which I'm not sure everyones agrees with), it doesn't mean that it can't be better. By striving for unbans of innocuous cards (or at least cards that won't break anything), we make the format more open to more cards.
Some people see cards being unbanned as making Modern less open, but I hardly think that Scales, KCI, UW Control, Humans, etc., etc., etc. all go away when Stoneforge Mystic or Green Sun's Zenith are unbanned. Maybe I'm wrong? Maybe all of those decks are just not good enough and 20% of the whole format would be Twin and Stoneforge Mystic if they were unbanned? That would be damn surprising!
And I think that nut hands have some validity when comparing Stoneforge Mystic. Why? A deck with Stoneforge Mystic has a nut draw of turn 2 Stoneforge Mystic, then turn 3 Batterskull when the opponent has no way to remove it. That's it. No Champs and Meddling Kids and no Hollow Ones. It is obviously a more consistent "nut draw," but those nut draws from decks also have their pretty consistent strong plays. (I believe)
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Yikes, this thread has gotten even more hyperbolic and memey in the past 12 hours. Nothing actually changed from a data perspective around the banlist update, which supports my fear that much of this uproar is likely sensational reactionism. Stuff like the inane "Magic as Garfield intended" meme needs to disappear from this thread. It lowers the quality of discussion and makes it difficult to have meaningful conversations about the actual state of Modern. Same with posting meaningless screencaps of best case games where decks are running hot.
Should SFM be unbanned? Yes, definitely. I'm sure it will be unbanned next year depending on the PT timing. GSZ? Twin? Let's talk more. Modern will probably be just fine until then. If we get another awful GP T32 like ATL, then sure, it's time to really have serious conversations about format health. But we can't just go insane every time we get one bad event and then a "No Changes" update. 2018 was overall an excellent year for Modern. Let's not let the last month negate the previous 10 because we want some card unbanned or dislike a deck that is doing well.
I think the issue is that even if Modern is doing well (which I'm not sure everyones agrees with), it doesn't mean that it can't be better. By striving for unbans of innocuous cards (or at least cards that won't break anything), we make the format more open to more cards.
Some people see cards being unbanned as making Modern less open, but I hardly think that Scales, KCI, UW Control, Humans, etc., etc., etc. all go away when Stoneforge Mystic or Green Sun's Zenith are unbanned. Maybe I'm wrong? Maybe all of those decks are just not good enough and 20% of the whole format would be Twin and Stoneforge Mystic if they were unbanned? That would be damn surprising!
And I think that nut hands have some validity when comparing Stoneforge Mystic. Why? A deck with Stoneforge Mystic has a nut draw of turn 2 Stoneforge Mystic, then turn 3 Batterskull when the opponent has no way to remove it. That's it. No Champs and Meddling Kids and no Hollow Ones. It is obviously a more consistent "nut draw," but those nut draws from decks also have their pretty consistent strong plays. (I believe)
Great! Let's strive for more unbanned cards with some coherent and engaging arguments. Let's not post one-liners, screenshots, memes, and clever turns of phrases to illustrate some Modern dissatisfaction. It's bad enough seeing that on naturally lower energy posting mediums, like Twitter and Twitch, plus many Reddit threads (not all; some have better discussion). Seeing it on a forum that has historically hosted better back and forth arguments is just painful.
You are forcing the opponent to make a choice: tap out and risk losing to the combo, or slow down and very easily deal with the combo. You are controlling their gameplan by making it disadvantageous (or at least risky) to blindly goldfish their hand and ignore the opponent. Without that fear and respect, we have seen the past 3 years how trash UR control actually is.
Lol very easily. How do you suggest we do that when you can just have a dispel or any other counter if we wait too long?
Cast a discard spell, take a combo piece or protection piece. Cast Abrupt Decay. Play your own counterspells. Pressure Twin to spend its own resources instead of trying to jam the combo.
Even then, going under the assumption that Twin maindecks Dispel (which it doesn't), you're looking at a Turn 5 kill, which is slow by Modern's standards. Or do you tap out against Infect? Do you tap out against Storm? Boo hoo. With Twin, you might get punished on Turn 5 in magical Christmas land when Twin peels a godhand. Meanwhile, other decks in Modern are doing the same thing on turn 2 and 3.
This blatant ignorance of basic deck operation, as well as totally unfounded and misrepresentations of the deck are why we should just ban discussion about the deck again. It's tiresome having to deal with it all the time.
sure we tap out against Infekt if they have no creature on board. FLASH...its still the same Problem. I Never fear about flash Infekt
At some point, something's got to give. People have used coherent and engaging arguments before. I personally feel that there's not much left to say or argue about Stoneforge Mystic. So it's become almost a joke or worse, a meme, for why it's banned. I personally have said the same things over and over again and I know people are sick of what I've said. Still, I am a bit tired of making an argument for Stoneforge Mystic.
Also when it comes down to it, even the best arguments are going to come down to biases. I personally believe that Preordain is fine for Modern. I think it's marginally better than Serum Visions and Opt, which are trash. But there's people that believe that Preordain is busted. They believe that the whole format turns into Grishoalbrand and Storm, both of which will have an 80% win rate vs. the field, and then all the Tier 2 decks below them. There's literally no way for me to prove that Preordain won't do that. Just like Jace, the Mind Sculptor. There's literally no way to prove that it wouldn't have broken the format. But Wizards decided to make a calculated risk. That's what it comes down to and many here wonder why Wizards won't already do that to the damn Kor already so we can move on to other cards in the unban topic.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
At some point, something's got to give. People have used coherent and engaging arguments before. I personally feel that there's not much left to say or argue about Stoneforge Mystic. So it's become almost a joke or worse, a meme, for why it's banned. I personally have said the same things over and over again and I know people are sick of what I've said. Still, I am a bit tired of making an argument for Stoneforge Mystic.
Also when it comes down to it, even the best arguments are going to come down to biases. I personally believe that Preordain is fine for Modern. I think it's marginally better than Serum Visions and Opt, which are trash. But there's people that believe that Preordain is busted. They believe that the whole format turns into Grishoalbrand and Storm, both of which will have an 80% win rate vs. the field, and then all the Tier 2 decks below them. There's literally no way for me to prove that Preordain won't do that. Just like Jace, the Mind Sculptor. There's literally no way to prove that it wouldn't have broken the format. But Wizards decided to make a calculated risk. That's what it comes down to and many here wonder why Wizards won't already do that to the damn Kor already so we can move on to other cards in the unban topic.
So much of this.
The arguments have been made, and people are still of the opinion that SFM/Twin/Preordain/X Pet Card would be the LITERALLY death of Modern.
Have things gone full meme around here? Sure they have, because people are still making statements that we need to wait, that SFM would make the game into all midrange, that Twin would be the end of the format.
If people are going to make those kinds of statements, I'm going to meme. I'm going to laugh my ass off, because Modern is busted, and thats fine! Its a format for busted things! Thats the point!
So unban the cards that have no reason to be banned, and lets play busted.
That screenshot is 20 power swinging on Turn 3. The only 'fair' deck that has an out to that, is a Terminus rip off the top.
Thats idiotic, its indefensible, unless you are of the opinion that yes Twin and SFM should have come off, and if Wizards was not bloody IGNORANT, I would not have to read 'feels good to make no changes' from Aaron ******* Forsythe.
At some point, something's got to give. People have used coherent and engaging arguments before. I personally feel that there's not much left to say or argue about Stoneforge Mystic. So it's become almost a joke or worse, a meme, for why it's banned. I personally have said the same things over and over again and I know people are sick of what I've said. Still, I am a bit tired of making an argument for Stoneforge Mystic.
Also when it comes down to it, even the best arguments are going to come down to biases. I personally believe that Preordain is fine for Modern. I think it's marginally better than Serum Visions and Opt, which are trash. But there's people that believe that Preordain is busted. They believe that the whole format turns into Grishoalbrand and Storm, both of which will have an 80% win rate vs. the field, and then all the Tier 2 decks below them. There's literally no way for me to prove that Preordain won't do that. Just like Jace, the Mind Sculptor. There's literally no way to prove that it wouldn't have broken the format. But Wizards decided to make a calculated risk. That's what it comes down to and many here wonder why Wizards won't already do that to the damn Kor already so we can move on to other cards in the unban topic.
The arguments have been made, and people are still of the opinion that SFM/Twin/Preordain/X Pet Card would be the LITERALLY death of Modern.
Have things gone full meme around here? Sure they have, because people are still making statements that we need to wait, that SFM would make the game into all midrange, that Twin would be the end of the format.
If people are going to make those kinds of statements, I'm going to meme. I'm going to laugh my ass off, because Modern is busted, and thats fine! Its a format for busted things! Thats the point!
So unban the cards that have no reason to be banned, and lets play busted.
That screenshot is 20 power swinging on Turn 3. The only 'fair' deck that has an out to that, is a Terminus rip off the top.
Thats idiotic, its indefensible, unless you are of the opinion that yes Twin and SFM should have come off, and if Wizards was not bloody IGNORANT, I would not have to read 'feels good to make no changes' from Aaron ******* Forsythe.
Posting memes, one-liners, and other such low-effort posts doesn't even try to convince people. It's just regurgitating tired tropes and repeating the exact same kind of minimum-content complaining we've heard for years on mediums like Twitch. If you're going to confront people who are wrong, do so with measured arguments and address their concerns. If it takes time, let it take time. And if someone is not going to be convinced, then I'd probably just not engage that person. idSurge posting a screenshot of 20 power swinging on T3 is meaningless. We've seen decks winning on T2 or T3 for years in all iterations of Modern, even with Twin. Highlighting those wins has almost never meant anything about metagame health. It's often nothing more than frustrated players venting about a personal gripe with the format, a recent loss, a bad matchup, etc. Your post, where you talk about Wizards being "bloody IGNORANT" and "Aaron ******* Forsythe" is emblematic of personal frustration and not measured, persuasive analysis.
As I said before, we had a long stretch of strong Modern health. Now we have a bump that people are overreacting to. If it remains a bump after another GP, that's another conversation. But as the last 2.75 years have shown, Modern is remarkably self-correcting and literally every single moment of panic was ultimately unjustified, whether Bridgevine, Grishoalbrand, Nahiri, Eldrazi Tron, Company, Humans, Gx Tron, GDS, Storm, etc. There are literally a dozen-plus examples of pros and everyday players in earlier threads/Reddit/Twitch/Twitter posting clever one-liners about some broken Modern deck/card and being proven wrong within a few months. Might this time be different? It's possible. But we need to wait the amount of time we waited in the past to know for sure. None of that would prevent SFM from being unbanned in early 2019. Have patience; Wizards has always unbanned on that annual cycle. Swearing and getting mad at Forsythe and Wizards doesn't persuade anyone and probably does the opposite for people on the fence.
To be honest, "No Changes" comes off as horribly lazy, especially for a format that has proven itself to be one of the most popular, if not the most popular, in all of Magic.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
modern is just on autopilot. wizards has plenty on their plate. arena is out and standard doesnt suck. modern has shown its ability to self correct, and any statements they might make has an equal if not higher chance to be turned on them. we see it even here how people scrutinize every quote under a microscope, and use it as the basis for arguments or whatever else. so what they could gain by saying anything is overshadowed by stirring up speculation and fear mongering and or having the quote continually thrown in their face from now until forever. staying silent is just less bad, and it isnt breaking from pattern.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
modern is just on autopilot. wizards has plenty on their plate. arena is out and standard doesnt suck. modern has shown its ability to self correct, and any statements they might make has an equal if not higher chance to be turned on them. we see it even here how people scrutinize every quote under a microscope, and use it as the basis for arguments or whatever else. so what they could gain by saying anything is overshadowed by stirring up speculation and fear mongering and or having the quote continually thrown in their face from now until forever. staying silent is just less bad, and it isnt breaking from pattern.
At least some people are a bit sensible in this thread.
We have discussed the concept of "laziness" from the side of Wizard's on several occasions. Really though, why would they make ANY comment in their B&R announcement? Imagine this, they say in their announcement:
"Modern is at a good point right now. While our focus is in other products such as Standard and Arena, we are keeping an eye at Modern, and nothing seems to be standing out as problematic. There is a surge of Ancient Stirrings which, for the time being, don't seem to be oppressive. Dredge is also on the rise and is also being monitored."
Even in such a calm statement about the state of modern people would go NUTS.
"Modern is horrible right now, two ships passing in the night, where do they see the healthy environment?"
"They don't care about modern, they don't test it, Arena will kill it"
"Ancient Stirrings ban incoming"
"Dredge ban incoming"
"WHY DON'T THEY TALK ABOUT SFM/TWIN, THEY ARE HORRIBLE PEOPLE, THEY DON'T WANT TO GIVE ME MY DECK WHICH I DESERVE"
To avoid these reactions they just say, no changes, and that's that. Anything else is, more or less, baseless speculation. Some people are doing some GREAT work with data from tournaments and provide calm, reasonable, and educated analyses, even if it's not always correct, as we don't have the backing of Wizards for this. For the most part though, most arguments are just emotional or unreasonable requests and/or demands.
If we see the majority of B&R announcements, they provide NO context for no changes, and only a couple, if even, provide information on why they kept things the same. So I don't see laziness, I don't see conspiracies to keep us from playing our favorite deck because they hate us/hate twin/hate SFM. They have no reason to do it. Would it be nice? Maybe (although as I argued with my example above possible also not). Are they obliged to do it? No.
As the voice of reason ktkenshinx has said multiple times in this thread, it is likely that there will be an unban, and it's a matter of time/timing.
Just play the format as it is. And if you HATE it because it doesn't have twin, then don't, there are 10 formats. But chill out.
To be honest, "No Changes" comes off as horribly lazy, especially for a format that has proven itself to be one of the most popular, if not the most popular, in all of Magic.
The format being as popular as it is is literally evidence to NOT screw with it to satisfy a small vocal minority.
At some point, something's got to give. People have used coherent and engaging arguments before. I personally feel that there's not much left to say or argue about Stoneforge Mystic. So it's become almost a joke or worse, a meme, for why it's banned. I personally have said the same things over and over again and I know people are sick of what I've said. Still, I am a bit tired of making an argument for Stoneforge Mystic.
Just one last opinion on the SFM topic... I do have the small fear that some people at R&D decided that SFM is the same power level as Birthing Pod and would never unban her. A visit to New Phyrexia in some distant future.. they might have difficulty designing new strong equipment if SFM is modern legal.
Also when it comes down to it, even the best arguments are going to come down to biases. I personally believe that Preordain is fine for Modern. I think it's marginally better than Serum Visions and Opt, which are trash. But there's people that believe that Preordain is busted. They believe that the whole format turns into Grishoalbrand and Storm, both of which will have an 80% win rate vs. the field, and then all the Tier 2 decks below them. There's literally no way for me to prove that Preordain won't do that. Just like Jace, the Mind Sculptor. There's literally no way to prove that it wouldn't have broken the format. But Wizards decided to make a calculated risk. That's what it comes down to and many here wonder why Wizards won't already do that to the damn Kor already so we can move on to other cards in the unban topic.
Would be playing UR storm if they ever unban preordain. I sort of miss the days one-shotting people in pauper format with a storm deck. Playing Storm in my lgs would be nice today, as the Eldrazi Tron decks that have chalice in the main have gone extinct.
To be honest, "No Changes" comes off as horribly lazy, especially for a format that has proven itself to be one of the most popular, if not the most popular, in all of Magic.
The format being as popular as it is is literally evidence to NOT screw with it to satisfy a small vocal minority.
So if the format was good and Rite of Replication was banned, then it should stay banned? "No changes?"
We see it differently then. Just because a format is deemed good or I should say popular as you put it, that doesn't mean that cards that won't hurt that popularity shouldn't be unbanned. I personally felt that every single Modern format was good outside of Eye of Eldrazi. Does that mean that I can't see the sensibility of other bans? Nope. Admittedly I hated most of them at the moment, but I can understand most of the bans that happened. And Modern has been popular since it started. I only remember 2 times when it became not so popular on a local level - Eye of Eldrazi and Treasure Cruise/Birthing Pod.
Also I somehow doubt that IdSurge, CfusionPM, and myself are the only Modern players that believe Stoneforge Mystic should have been unbanned a while ago. Please correct me if I'm wrong here. Maybe we are the only 3?
Some people think about it like "why mess with a good thing?" I think about it like why not make a good thing "even better."
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
I think there is a large lack of awareness as to why No Changes at this current time, should remain at No Changes until the next season; RPTQ's are this very weekend, and the following two weekends. I'd hate to be on the WotC staff who makes these decisions and make any change to a format, no matter how close to Eldrazi Winter in degeneracy when qualifiers are abroad.
To be honest, "No Changes" comes off as horribly lazy, especially for a format that has proven itself to be one of the most popular, if not the most popular, in all of Magic.
The format being as popular as it is is literally evidence to NOT screw with it to satisfy a small vocal minority.
So if the format was good and Rite of Replication was banned, then it should stay banned? "No changes?"
We see it differently then. Just because a format is deemed good or I should say popular as you put it, that doesn't mean that cards that won't hurt that popularity shouldn't be unbanned. I personally felt that every single Modern format was good outside of Eye of Eldrazi. Does that mean that I can't see the sensibility of other bans? Nope. Admittedly I hated most of them at the moment, but I can understand most of the bans that happened. And Modern has been popular since it started. I only remember 2 times when it became not so popular on a local level - Eye of Eldrazi and Treasure Cruise/Birthing Pod.
Also I somehow doubt that IdSurge, CfusionPM, and myself are the only Modern players that believe Stoneforge Mystic should have been unbanned a while ago. Please correct me if I'm wrong here. Maybe we are the only 3?
Some people think about it like "why mess with a good thing?" I think about it like why not make a good thing "even better."
We already know that Wizards eyes unbans in periods of stability. See BBE and JTMS. It's just a matter of time and monitoring format evolutions. They also unban when the format is unstable, often paired with a ban (see Eye and AV plus Sword). It has been only 9 months since BBR and JTMS were unbanned. The format has undergone a few changes in that time as decks have risen and fallen in popularity and viability. Wizards likely wants to monitor those evolutions before acting. In fact, this period of natural evolution was explicitly cited in the BBE and JTMS unban rationale:
"Compared to other B&R windows, this one has the maximum amount of time before another Modern Pro Tour. This will allow the format to breathe and evolve without immediately undergoing the pressures of the world's top competition."
By that logic, I expect a similarly timed unban, likely SFM and maybe something else, when the timing window is comparable in 2019. As I said before, this will likely be after the early 2019 Modern PT. Wizards doing nothing until then is responsible format management, if they are waiting for the same reasons they waited with BBE and JTMS. We have no reason to believe otherwise except for the frustrated and largely unsupportable conspiracy theories I've seen floated in this thread and other sensationalist outlets. There have been dozens of outrageous ban claims over the years and misassessments of Modern health. The format has proved incredibly stable and cyclical despite those claims. Given that track record, there is little to no cost to waiting until the 2019 timing window I am predicting.
I think there is a large lack of awareness as to why No Changes at this current time, should remain at No Changes until the next season; RPTQ's are this very weekend, and the following two weekends. I'd hate to be on the WotC staff who makes these decisions and make any change to a format, no matter how close to Eldrazi Winter in degeneracy when qualifiers are abroad.
If that is the case, then they are terrible at chosing dates. I believe the B&R list should not be affected by such things. Let's suppose they had a change in mind for this announcement(ban or unban, doesn't matter but something), then they saw the calendar: oh, there are regionals next weeks, let's move this change to the next update.
If that would be the case, players would be left without that change (that WotC considered necessary) for 2 months just because of bad planning. No matter how you look at it, that's not good for the modern community.
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-better generic curve out aggro draws (spirits has a higher curve and more threats it might want to hold back)
-humans has more potent disruption; meaning its advantages are more pronounced.
mausoleum wanderer and queller are nice and what not, but they dont have the same impact as thalia, freebooter, and meddling mage locking down a game. spirits gets its edge in fighting through removal. another plus you didnt mention in spirits favor is its sideboard.
i think spirits is on track to overtake humans, but its only 6ish months into its lifespan.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Does anyone think something can or will break this up? Are we reacting too fast?
Banning Stirrings and looting at once would almost cause a riot.
If you ban Stirrings, you lower the consistent dig for 3 decks.
Tron and G Affinity go Oath of Nissa.
KCI may go blue, for Whir?
Lantern, same.
Looting? You kill any Phoenix deck, probably kill Mardu, hurt Dredge, but oddly just slow Hollow One.
The answer to me, is simple. People simply refuse to accept it.
SFM would do the same as Jace/BBE. A slight spike in fair decks, until they realize there are decks putting out 3 Hollow Ones, a Gurmag Angler, and 2 Arclights and swinging with all of them on TURN 3.
Thank god Wizards has saved us from the oppressive SFM.
Spirits
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
Spirits
Magic as Richard Garfield intended.
I wish a turn 3 batterskull was the greatest threat in Modern. And not a joke. 4 power on turn three maybe for a control deck.
Should SFM be unbanned? Yes, definitely. I'm sure it will be unbanned next year depending on the PT timing. GSZ? Twin? Let's talk more. Modern will probably be just fine until then. If we get another awful GP T32 like ATL, then sure, it's time to really have serious conversations about format health. But we can't just go insane every time we get one bad event and then a "No Changes" update. 2018 was overall an excellent year for Modern. Let's not let the last month negate the previous 10 because we want some card unbanned or dislike a deck that is doing well.
I think the issue is that even if Modern is doing well (which I'm not sure everyones agrees with), it doesn't mean that it can't be better. By striving for unbans of innocuous cards (or at least cards that won't break anything), we make the format more open to more cards.
Some people see cards being unbanned as making Modern less open, but I hardly think that Scales, KCI, UW Control, Humans, etc., etc., etc. all go away when Stoneforge Mystic or Green Sun's Zenith are unbanned. Maybe I'm wrong? Maybe all of those decks are just not good enough and 20% of the whole format would be Twin and Stoneforge Mystic if they were unbanned? That would be damn surprising!
And I think that nut hands have some validity when comparing Stoneforge Mystic. Why? A deck with Stoneforge Mystic has a nut draw of turn 2 Stoneforge Mystic, then turn 3 Batterskull when the opponent has no way to remove it. That's it. No Champs and Meddling Kids and no Hollow Ones. It is obviously a more consistent "nut draw," but those nut draws from decks also have their pretty consistent strong plays. (I believe)
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Great! Let's strive for more unbanned cards with some coherent and engaging arguments. Let's not post one-liners, screenshots, memes, and clever turns of phrases to illustrate some Modern dissatisfaction. It's bad enough seeing that on naturally lower energy posting mediums, like Twitter and Twitch, plus many Reddit threads (not all; some have better discussion). Seeing it on a forum that has historically hosted better back and forth arguments is just painful.
Also when it comes down to it, even the best arguments are going to come down to biases. I personally believe that Preordain is fine for Modern. I think it's marginally better than Serum Visions and Opt, which are trash. But there's people that believe that Preordain is busted. They believe that the whole format turns into Grishoalbrand and Storm, both of which will have an 80% win rate vs. the field, and then all the Tier 2 decks below them. There's literally no way for me to prove that Preordain won't do that. Just like Jace, the Mind Sculptor. There's literally no way to prove that it wouldn't have broken the format. But Wizards decided to make a calculated risk. That's what it comes down to and many here wonder why Wizards won't already do that to the damn Kor already so we can move on to other cards in the unban topic.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)So much of this.
The arguments have been made, and people are still of the opinion that SFM/Twin/Preordain/X Pet Card would be the LITERALLY death of Modern.
Have things gone full meme around here? Sure they have, because people are still making statements that we need to wait, that SFM would make the game into all midrange, that Twin would be the end of the format.
If people are going to make those kinds of statements, I'm going to meme. I'm going to laugh my ass off, because Modern is busted, and thats fine! Its a format for busted things! Thats the point!
So unban the cards that have no reason to be banned, and lets play busted.
That screenshot is 20 power swinging on Turn 3. The only 'fair' deck that has an out to that, is a Terminus rip off the top.
Thats idiotic, its indefensible, unless you are of the opinion that yes Twin and SFM should have come off, and if Wizards was not bloody IGNORANT, I would not have to read 'feels good to make no changes' from Aaron ******* Forsythe.
Spirits
Posting memes, one-liners, and other such low-effort posts doesn't even try to convince people. It's just regurgitating tired tropes and repeating the exact same kind of minimum-content complaining we've heard for years on mediums like Twitch. If you're going to confront people who are wrong, do so with measured arguments and address their concerns. If it takes time, let it take time. And if someone is not going to be convinced, then I'd probably just not engage that person. idSurge posting a screenshot of 20 power swinging on T3 is meaningless. We've seen decks winning on T2 or T3 for years in all iterations of Modern, even with Twin. Highlighting those wins has almost never meant anything about metagame health. It's often nothing more than frustrated players venting about a personal gripe with the format, a recent loss, a bad matchup, etc. Your post, where you talk about Wizards being "bloody IGNORANT" and "Aaron ******* Forsythe" is emblematic of personal frustration and not measured, persuasive analysis.
As I said before, we had a long stretch of strong Modern health. Now we have a bump that people are overreacting to. If it remains a bump after another GP, that's another conversation. But as the last 2.75 years have shown, Modern is remarkably self-correcting and literally every single moment of panic was ultimately unjustified, whether Bridgevine, Grishoalbrand, Nahiri, Eldrazi Tron, Company, Humans, Gx Tron, GDS, Storm, etc. There are literally a dozen-plus examples of pros and everyday players in earlier threads/Reddit/Twitch/Twitter posting clever one-liners about some broken Modern deck/card and being proven wrong within a few months. Might this time be different? It's possible. But we need to wait the amount of time we waited in the past to know for sure. None of that would prevent SFM from being unbanned in early 2019. Have patience; Wizards has always unbanned on that annual cycle. Swearing and getting mad at Forsythe and Wizards doesn't persuade anyone and probably does the opposite for people on the fence.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)We have discussed the concept of "laziness" from the side of Wizard's on several occasions. Really though, why would they make ANY comment in their B&R announcement? Imagine this, they say in their announcement:
"Modern is at a good point right now. While our focus is in other products such as Standard and Arena, we are keeping an eye at Modern, and nothing seems to be standing out as problematic. There is a surge of Ancient Stirrings which, for the time being, don't seem to be oppressive. Dredge is also on the rise and is also being monitored."
Even in such a calm statement about the state of modern people would go NUTS.
"Modern is horrible right now, two ships passing in the night, where do they see the healthy environment?"
"They don't care about modern, they don't test it, Arena will kill it"
"Ancient Stirrings ban incoming"
"Dredge ban incoming"
"WHY DON'T THEY TALK ABOUT SFM/TWIN, THEY ARE HORRIBLE PEOPLE, THEY DON'T WANT TO GIVE ME MY DECK WHICH I DESERVE"
To avoid these reactions they just say, no changes, and that's that. Anything else is, more or less, baseless speculation. Some people are doing some GREAT work with data from tournaments and provide calm, reasonable, and educated analyses, even if it's not always correct, as we don't have the backing of Wizards for this. For the most part though, most arguments are just emotional or unreasonable requests and/or demands.
If we see the majority of B&R announcements, they provide NO context for no changes, and only a couple, if even, provide information on why they kept things the same. So I don't see laziness, I don't see conspiracies to keep us from playing our favorite deck because they hate us/hate twin/hate SFM. They have no reason to do it. Would it be nice? Maybe (although as I argued with my example above possible also not). Are they obliged to do it? No.
As the voice of reason ktkenshinx has said multiple times in this thread, it is likely that there will be an unban, and it's a matter of time/timing.
Just play the format as it is. And if you HATE it because it doesn't have twin, then don't, there are 10 formats. But chill out.
UB Faeries (15-6-0)
UWR Control (10-5-1)/Kiki Control/Midrange/Harbinger
UBR Cruel Control (6-4-0)/Grixis Control/Delver/Blue Jund
UWB Control/Mentor
UW Miracles/Control (currently active, 14-2-0)
BW Eldrazi & Taxes
RW Burn (9-1-0)
I do (academic) research on video games and archaeology! You can check out my open access book here: https://www.sidestone.com/books/the-interactive-past
The state of Modern is what it is.
The format being as popular as it is is literally evidence to NOT screw with it to satisfy a small vocal minority.
Just one last opinion on the SFM topic... I do have the small fear that some people at R&D decided that SFM is the same power level as Birthing Pod and would never unban her. A visit to New Phyrexia in some distant future.. they might have difficulty designing new strong equipment if SFM is modern legal.
Would be playing UR storm if they ever unban preordain. I sort of miss the days one-shotting people in pauper format with a storm deck. Playing Storm in my lgs would be nice today, as the Eldrazi Tron decks that have chalice in the main have gone extinct.
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Want to play a UW control deck in modern, but don't have jace or snaps?
Please come visit us at the Emeria Titan control thread
So if the format was good and Rite of Replication was banned, then it should stay banned? "No changes?"
We see it differently then. Just because a format is deemed good or I should say popular as you put it, that doesn't mean that cards that won't hurt that popularity shouldn't be unbanned. I personally felt that every single Modern format was good outside of Eye of Eldrazi. Does that mean that I can't see the sensibility of other bans? Nope. Admittedly I hated most of them at the moment, but I can understand most of the bans that happened. And Modern has been popular since it started. I only remember 2 times when it became not so popular on a local level - Eye of Eldrazi and Treasure Cruise/Birthing Pod.
Also I somehow doubt that IdSurge, CfusionPM, and myself are the only Modern players that believe Stoneforge Mystic should have been unbanned a while ago. Please correct me if I'm wrong here. Maybe we are the only 3?
Some people think about it like "why mess with a good thing?" I think about it like why not make a good thing "even better."
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)We already know that Wizards eyes unbans in periods of stability. See BBE and JTMS. It's just a matter of time and monitoring format evolutions. They also unban when the format is unstable, often paired with a ban (see Eye and AV plus Sword). It has been only 9 months since BBR and JTMS were unbanned. The format has undergone a few changes in that time as decks have risen and fallen in popularity and viability. Wizards likely wants to monitor those evolutions before acting. In fact, this period of natural evolution was explicitly cited in the BBE and JTMS unban rationale:
"Compared to other B&R windows, this one has the maximum amount of time before another Modern Pro Tour. This will allow the format to breathe and evolve without immediately undergoing the pressures of the world's top competition."
By that logic, I expect a similarly timed unban, likely SFM and maybe something else, when the timing window is comparable in 2019. As I said before, this will likely be after the early 2019 Modern PT. Wizards doing nothing until then is responsible format management, if they are waiting for the same reasons they waited with BBE and JTMS. We have no reason to believe otherwise except for the frustrated and largely unsupportable conspiracy theories I've seen floated in this thread and other sensationalist outlets. There have been dozens of outrageous ban claims over the years and misassessments of Modern health. The format has proved incredibly stable and cyclical despite those claims. Given that track record, there is little to no cost to waiting until the 2019 timing window I am predicting.
If that is the case, then they are terrible at chosing dates. I believe the B&R list should not be affected by such things. Let's suppose they had a change in mind for this announcement(ban or unban, doesn't matter but something), then they saw the calendar: oh, there are regionals next weeks, let's move this change to the next update.
If that would be the case, players would be left without that change (that WotC considered necessary) for 2 months just because of bad planning. No matter how you look at it, that's not good for the modern community.