take note that here u thin your deck quickly with ramp spells. and mana creatures can chump block, if necessery. This deck has a lot of t4 wins, turn 5 is in 90% (in playing with wall), so with blocks can be enough.
Spoils is not a card you cannot take with you to a Grand Prix. On turn 1 it kills you in about 13% of games. That means on Day 1 of a Grand Prix, assuming 9 matches with an average of 2.5 games in each match, you are going to lose about 3 games just to Spoils dealing you 20+ damage. And that ignores all of the virtual deaths that Spoils causes. 17, 18, or 19 damage Spoils is also game over, because it puts you in Bolt range. 15 damage Spoils puts you in range of 1 attack or DRS activation and a Bolt. So now you are losing about 25% of your games just to Spoils ripping away your life total. And I don't know about you, but I am not paying $40 and driving for a few hours to waste a Saturday losing to my own tutor engine.
Though I would like to point out that Spoils doesn't kill you in 13% of your games; it kills you in 13% of the games that you cast it. Considering you (should) only open with Spoils 40% of the time, that's a lower number, closer to 6%. Assuming game 1 Bolts 100% of the time against every deck, you're likely to lose about 8/100 games, or, at a 9-round tourney, 2 or 3.
I'm not trying to use those numbers to defend Spoils use at a large event. The problem with Spoils isn't how often it's supposed to kill you, the problem is that the variance exists at all. Spoils can kill you. Spoils can kill you many more times in a row than the math tells it to.
10MCycles, 8 Shuffles, Probes Cracked
Made another run getting the probabilities of spoiling for a 4-of not in your hand:
deathBySpoilsForPaladin : 292619 = 13.61% chance to take 20 from Spoils
averageSpoilsForPaladin : 9.693298913918397 = Average 9.67 Life lost
averageSpoilsForPaladinCount : 2149562 = 21.49% chance for this opening hand scenario
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 00 occurences : 163519 = 7.61%
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 01 occurences : 154080 = 7.16%
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 02 occurences : 145760 = 6.78%
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 03 occurences : 136904 = 6.37%
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 04 occurences : 127937 = 5.95%
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 05 occurences : 120157 = 5.59%
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 06 occurences : 111884 = 5.20%
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 07 occurences : 104795 = 4.88%
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 08 occurences : 98021 = 4.56%
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 09 occurences : 90751 = 4.22%
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 10 occurences : 84398 = 3.93%
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 11 occurences : 77988 = 3.63%
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 12 occurences : 72375 = 3.37%
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 13 occurences : 66869 = 3.11%
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 14 occurences : 61749 = 2.87%
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 15 occurences : 56451 = 2.63%
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 16 occurences : 52283 = 2.43%
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 17 occurences : 47407 = 2.21%
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 18 occurences : 43934 = 2.04%
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 19 occurences : 39681 = 1.85%
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 20 occurences : 35963 = 1.67%
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 21 occurences : 32600
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 22 occurences : 29258
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 23 occurences : 26259
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 24 occurences : 23601
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 25 occurences : 20850
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 26 occurences : 18786
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 27 occurences : 16670
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 28 occurences : 14486
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 29 occurences : 12534
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 30 occurences : 10779
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 31 occurences : 9321
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 32 occurences : 8209
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 33 occurences : 6925
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 34 occurences : 5856
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 35 occurences : 4607
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 36 occurences : 3950
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 37 occurences : 3038
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 38 occurences : 2441
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 39 occurences : 1916
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 40 occurences : 1439
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 41 occurences : 1061
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 42 occurences : 764
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 43 occurences : 513
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 44 occurences : 359
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 45 occurences : 221
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 46 occurences : 131
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 47 occurences : 60
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 48 occurences : 19
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 49 occurences : 3
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 50 occurences : 0
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 51 occurences : 0
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 52 occurences : 0
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 53 occurences : 0
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 54 occurences : 0
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 55 occurences : 0
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 56 occurences : 0
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 57 occurences : 0
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 58 occurences : 0
Spoils for Paladin life lost : 59 occurences : 0
The list works cumulatively, so if you wanted to know the odds of taking up to the average damage of 9.7, you add up the probabilities up to that point.
7.61% + 7.16% + 6.78% + 6.37% +
5.95% + 5.59% + 5.20% + 4.88% +
4.56% + 4.22% + 3.93% = 62.25% chance you take a maximum of 10 damage from spoils.
Provided you have 4 copies of the card you're looking for in the deck. Your odds go up with less cards in the deck as well.
You play Spoils on turn 1 and flip the top card. There is a 49/53 chance that this card is NOT your chosen card, or put a different way, an 8% chance that it IS your chosen card. Let's say that it isn't, so we keep on flipping. The second card (52 cards in the deck) has a 48/52 chance of also not being your card. The chances of neither the 53rd nor 52nd card being your intended target are 49/53 * 48/52, or 85%. We can keep going down the numbers this way and get the cumulative probability that any given card flipped is your intended card, and thus also the corresponding life loss.
Here are the numbers for Spoils, the chance of flipping your card, and the associated life loss. They are presented in the form of: "Flip # - Percent chance of being your card - cumulative life loss". Remember that this assumes 53 cards in your deck when you start flipping. Values have been color coded based on their danger level. Green is okay in most matchups, Orange is risky only against the most aggressive decks (Affinity, 5C Zoo, Burn), Red is risky against any deck that can play the aggro game (Jund, UWR, Melira Pod), and Maroon is effectively dead to either Bolt or your own City of Brass/Noxious Revival.
Again, here's the breakdown on a turn 1 Spoils, divided by decks/decktypes.
Maroon - Dead Zone
Once you get into Maroon, you auto-die to a Bolt, or just lose outright because you tapped CoB or cast Revival once.
Red- DANGER Zone
Aggro deck auto-kill range. At this point, you can't take 2 Bolts and still reliably use CoB or alternate cost Revival. You also might outright die to a Bolt and attack against some decks, especially Affinity, 5C Zoo, and Burn. The average damage curves of those decks tends to be 3 damage on turn 2, 7 damage on turn 3, and 10 damage on turn 4. Especially if you are on the draw, you don't want to be in the "Danger Zone" against affinity.
Orange- Unstable Zone
Any deck that can play the aggro game will try and exploit your low life total in this range. UWR will start burning and beating with Snappy. Melira Pod will just send in the Viscera Seer to attack. UR Storm will just try and fire off a smaller Grapeshot. As long as you can stay under the "Danger Zone", you are probably still okay, but just be careful once you get here. Dedicated aggro decks will also be scary in this range, but you can still outrace them.
Green- Safe Zone
Anytime you Spoils in the Green, the card is going to feel broken, and you are going to be happy. Your opponent will call you a lucksack and you can smile politely.
On average, you will be using Spoils for the bolded value of 8 life (just under 50% of all games). In 40% of games, you won't even lose more than 6 life. But in 20% of games, you will more or less die outright.
take note that here u thin your deck quickly with ramp spells. and mana creatures can chump block, if necessery. This deck has a lot of t4 wins, turn 5 is in 90% (in playing with wall), so with blocks can be enough.
Of course, most of the data presented is from Spoils turn 1. By the time we find all 8 lands, we tend to have somewhere between 43-46 cards in our library. But by then, an opposing deck will identify that we are defenseless and start chipping away at our life total via burn or creatures (our creatures aren't impenetrable, they are flimsy and die easily. Just imagine what a Pyroclasm would do to us). By the time we get all 8 lands out of the deck, we could have 16 life or 2 life.
With the testing I did, with Fog effects and lifegain and without those and with Spoils and Plunge, I found myself losing to aggro and burn at around 0-6 life and being at an average of 12 life to Jund and at 8 from UWR control. From there, Spoils for Belcher would kill me ~70% of the games I played and Plunge got me the card I needed ~34% of the time.
Of course, the real context here is not fetching for specifically Belcher but for other pieces we need. But most of the time, we fetch for Belcher.
That's also another factor. Since this deck wants to win T4-7, we can use Spoils for a variety of reasons. But at a really late time like that, we are more prone to taking damage from sources that actually matter. So even if we Spoils late, there's still a good chance we'll die from it.
I'm not saying that Spoils/Plunge are bad, I personally love those cards, but in this deck, they just aren't good. I pretty much did the testing too.
I guess with other people, the feeling for those tutors will change, as the variance really kicks in for those cards.
I'll say it again, this deck is already fast enough without any black, it can go off on turn 4, and frequently goes off on turn 5. Most modern decks that win that quickly or are as consistent.
RogueOS mentioned Abundance, it could be interesting. I don't like that it does nothing in multiples, it's a card you would hate to see two of, especially in your opening hand. I do like it though. I'm curious about testing results. I'll probably try it as a one of, I'm running 4 Healing Leaves, which I love, but it's another card I don't like having 2 of in my opening hand, so 3 may be the right amount.
On another note, I was wondering if a super magic math nerd could maybe run some numbers on Ancient Stirrings. What are the odds it hits a Forest and/or Goblin Charbelcher, and in what scenarios? I'd really appreciate that.
On the subject of land thinning, though most of the 2cmc 1 land spells go, look into Edge of Autumn as it can double as a cantrip later on when you're top decking.
Whoops! Missed the train, looks like you guys discussed it already a page back. Anyway, carry on with the fine thread! Here's hoping you guys find a way to really iron out its consistency!
<3 Thank you Ses for math. I dug this out to prove a point. But I think most people here agree that we really don't need black.
Okay, so here's what I learned from this deck so far.
1) We really really really want T1 mana, and since Chrome Mox is banned, we need to mulligan aggressively. Thankfully, Chancellor of the Tangle is really good at doubling as that one mana and a beater that we can realistically cast if our gameplay somehow fails. I just really want him to have lifelink, WHY WIZARDS?
2) Harrow is awesome. We just only need to cast it once. Casting it twice means we sometimes cannot play Belcher and pop it. Still very possible with 8 mana dorks. I'm trying out 3.
3) This deck has a lot of focused support. This is why I also decided to abandon a splash of black. We run something like 32 land tutors and 4 copies of Belcher with 5 spells to dig it up, with 12 cards that give us mana and bodies. Honestly, I feel a little silly for thinking that we needed more tutors. This entire deck is 75% tutors. The combo is literally 8 lands and Goblin Charbelcher.
4) Recross the Paths is insanely powerful. Once we set up, there isn't many ways to stop 4 Charbelchers from coming down and activating in a row. Hand disruption doesn't stop us. Counterspells only delay the inevitable. UWR runs like only 6 relevant counterspells. If we have 7 mana and Charbelcher, our opponents can't use spell based removal to destroy it. They cannot activate Quasali Pridemage.
5) Abundance is pretty good. And by pretty good, I mean enough for me to seriously consider it as a 2-of. On turn 3, this thing fetches you lands without any investment of mana after the fact. It speeds up the process, even if you spent your entire turn 3 casting the damn thing. And it doubles as a way to finish the game without needing to spend mana on Recross the Paths. Instead, we can do other silly things like casting Chancellor, giving our opponent something to worry about.
This deck is a dream to play and well formed and seriously fun.
My only gripe is that it's sometimes a turn too slow. Storm plays 13 spells on turn 3. Cherri0s has a turn 2 win that is actually realistic and can be achieved a startling percentage of the time (not that it's an actual competitive deck, but you get the point). Burn and Infect and Boggles just rams a huge number of damage down our throats. Affinity does things I don't even want to mention. Elves can win turn 3 pretty consistently. So can all-in-on-that-Splinter-Twin. Sometimes, this deck doesn't get there.
But who cares, it's Belcher. It finally works in Modern! Yes!
@Honor: It really depends on how many lands/Belchers are left in the deck and how many cards are in the deck. From there, it's pretty much simple probability without replacement. But if you really want in-depth charts, I am not your man. I can do calculations like that in my head, but to prop up a chart with every relevant scenario is too strenuous.
Casting Harrow twice doesn't necessarily mean we can't cast and pop Goblin Charbelcher in the same turn, we can still do it if we have mana dorks out.
However it's worth nothing, against certain match ups without artifact removal, like mono black for instance, we can cast Goblin Charbelcher before we crack it. This makes it even easier to win on turn 4. I'll also cast Charbelcher early if I have another one in my hand, and sometimes I'll pop it even with 1 or 2 lands in the deck remaning. It still can do a ton of damage, even lethal.
Recross the Paths is excellent, especially when we win the clash, which happens quite frequently, because we almost never reveal a land when we clash.
I don't think the deck is "too slow." Shapeshift, Merlia Pod, Jund, Infect and other Proven decks are slower than this deck.
I think it's vital to max Caravan Vigil, Lay of the Land and Safewright Quest. This is an 8 land deck, and those cards will keep you going when you draw a 0-land 1-Chancellor hand. They are also very useful on the combo turn; on a good hand, I reach 4 mana and cast Belcher on turn 3, then on turn 4 I cast as many thinning spells as I can and activate Belcher. The more 1-drops you have that take lands out of your library (those cards don't necessarily have to put the lands on the battlefield), the greater Belcher's damage output.
I don't use any spells costing more than 3 mana to cast (other than Belcher of course, and Chancellor, but I basically never cast it). They slow down the deck. Removing all lands is not a good reason; I'd rather take a risk and fire off Belcher on turn 4 with 1 Forest + 2 Stomping Ground in my deck, than be forced to wait till turn 5 every single time.
Ancient Stirrings is a necessary evil. It whiffs remarkably often, but it's the best way of getting Belcher.
The wall package is underwhelming, mostly because it does not thin the deck of lands. I'd stick to mana Elves. Speaking of which, there are four of them that generate mana unconditionally: Llanowar Elves, Elvish Mystic, Birds of Paradise and Noble Hierarch. I missed the last two.
All in all, this deck doesn't seem competitive because it just dies if it doesn't draw Belcher, or if Belcher gets countered/destroyed/exiled/whatever. The reliance on easily-killed mana dorks doesn't help either. The sideboard is also a giant blank, since this deck already has a hard enough time goldfishing a turn 4 win. Overall, a fun deck to goldfish and tweak, but nothing competitive.
In definite agreement with izzetmage on the need for all the 1cmc land searches. You want to have that consistency in thinning your lands and hitting your drops. Sure they don't 'ramp' but ramping is secondary to thinning for the kill with Belcher I believe.
I think the deck could do well in smaller tournaments as a meta call. I mean hell, I got 3rd with Cheeri0s some weeks ago and that deck 'dies to creature removal' simply because everyone else was also playing combo but I was the fastest combo in town.
There's not a lot of things that people main deck to actually deal with belcher if it resolves. Maelstrom Pulse? The worst thing the deck is going to have to fight through is counter magic. But a resolved Recross the Paths with a landless deck gives you 4 Belchers in a row of top decks.
Wall of Roots looks really good. Unlike Sakura Tribe Elder and Gatecreeper Vine, it's not a chump blocker. It's a real road block.
I'm not sure if it's necessary to max up Safewright Quest, Lay of the Land AND Caravan Vigil. But they are essential, especially to prevent mulligans, I'm thinking maybe 9 or 10, but probably not 12.
I think izzetmage is being a little hard on the deck's viability. Yeah you have to draw Goblin Charbelcher, but it almost always happens because we a run numerous amount of tutors, filters and fetches. Playing Esper or Bant Gifts is very difficult if you don't draw Gifts Ungiven. Hive Mind doesn't work at all unless you draw Hive Mind, and at one point in Modern it was actually quite competitive. Not saying this is a tier 1 deck or anything, and from looking at izzetmage's primer's, I take it he's a very competitive player. That being said I would not say this is a bad or mediocre deck without any good match up. At a semi competitive FNM Magic, or even a more competitive environment, this deck could certainly raise some eyebrows and certainly win some games.
Casting Harrow twice doesn't necessarily mean we can't cast and pop Goblin Charbelcher in the same turn, we can still do it if we have mana dorks out.
However it's worth nothing, against certain match ups without artifact removal, like mono black for instance, we can cast Goblin Charbelcher before we crack it. This makes it even easier to win on turn 4. I'll also cast Charbelcher early if I have another one in my hand, and sometimes I'll pop it even with 1 or 2 lands in the deck remaning. It still can do a ton of damage, even lethal.
Recross the Paths is excellent, especially when we win the clash, which happens quite frequently, because we almost never reveal a land when we clash.
I don't think the deck is "too slow." Shapeshift, Merlia Pod, Jund, Infect and other Proven decks are slower than this deck.
As stated, we can get to 7 with mana dorks, but sometimes that won't happen. Pyroclasm wrecks us. A smart opponent will throw their removal at our dorks. (Or at least one that knows what's going on)
You know, there's so many lines of play, but I'd just like to say that we get Charbelcher from Recross the Paths. They're are times where we find ourselves with a Belcher and a land or two in the deck, but I don't feel comfortable popping it for ????? amount of damage.
There's not a lot of things that people main deck to actually deal with belcher if it resolves. Maelstrom Pulse? The worst thing the deck is going to have to fight through is counter magic. But a resolved Recross the Paths with a landless deck gives you 4 Belchers in a row of top decks.
Wall of Roots looks really good. Unlike Sakura Tribe Elder and Gatecreeper Vine, it's not a chump blocker. It's a real road block.
Yup! We never pass priority to them beyond casting Belcher, so spell based and permanent based removal won't take out Belcher. And rarely will a control deck have 4 relevant counterspells in a row.
Wall of Roots seems good, it also turns on Morbid for Caravan Vigil (lol)
I'm not sure if it's necessary to max up Safewright Quest, Lay of the Land AND Caravan Vigil. But they are essential, especially to prevent mulligans, I'm thinking maybe 9 or 10, but probably not 12.
I think izzetmage is being a little hard on the deck's viability. Yeah you have to draw Goblin Charbelcher, but it almost always happens because we a run numerous amount of tutors, filters and fetches. Playing Esper or Bant Gifts is very difficult if you don't draw Gifts Ungiven. Hive Mind doesn't work at all unless you draw Hive Mind, and at one point in Modern it was actually quite competitive. Not saying this is a tier 1 deck or anything, and from looking at izzetmage's primer's, I take it he's a very competitive player. That being said I would not say this is a bad or mediocre deck without any good match up. At a semi competitive FNM Magic, or even a more competitive environment, this deck could certainly raise some eyebrows and certainly win some games.
The one drop area could use a bit more work. Again, we aren't exactly sure what an ideal number is for each card. But with diligent testing I'm pretty sure we can come to a solution that helps that issue.
Like I said before, this deck is really focused. We have 5 (6 for me) ways to find Belcher, 4 Belcher, and a ton of land fetches. In comparison to other combo deca, we have way too many tutors, but it works. I feel like the 2 extra Abundance really helped ease the pain of finding Belcher and helps us be less prone to fizzling into waiting until we draw it.
The reason we can drop some tutors is that in the 2 CMC+ slot we might be 2-for-1 fetching lands. This means you can squeeze more redundancy or alternate wincons into the deck.
We use Harrow and sometimes we sac a land. How about we sac a shockland Mountain and then use a card that puts a card from our graveyard onto the bottom of our library after we use Recross the Paths for double damage?
Or we can take a Charbelcher and put the skockland in the bottom.
But then again, top 5 of your library isn't the best way to do this.
I'm actually set on using Harrow as a way to bin a shockland, then use a spell to put that land on the bottom. I remember there was a card that did it for 2 mana, but I cannot find it.
How would I go about finding out numbers on Ancient Stirring? Like what would the math problems look like? Questions like, if I've drawn my opening hand with zero Goblin Charbelcher, and on turn one, I cast Ancient Stirring, what are the odds of me encountering a Goblin Charbelcher. What if I was 5 turns in? What would the formulas to solve these questions look like?
Suppose you have n cards in your library, 4 of which are Belchers.
Then Stirrings will result in 1 of 5 possibilities:
0 Belchers, 5 non-Belchers
1 Belcher, 4 non-Belchers
2 Belchers, 3 non-Belchers
3 Belchers, 2 non-Belchers
4 Belchers, 1 non-Belcher
To find the probability of hitting at least one Belcher, just take 1 - the probability of hitting 0 Belchers.
Assume 53 cards in library:
Probability of hitting 0 Belchers = ([4C0]*[(53-4)C5])/([53C5]) = 0.66449
On a TI-89: nCr(4,0)*nCr(53-4,5)/nCr(53,5)
to elaborate: the first term nCr(4,0) is the number of Belchers you see (0 of 4), the second term nCr(53-4,5) is the number of non-Belchers you see (5 of 53-4), and the last term nCr(53,5) is the total number of possible 5-card "hands" you can see.
Thus, probability of hitting 1 or more Belchers = 1-0.66449 = 0.33551.
Interesting analysis izzetmage, 33% isn't bad at all, and that number only goes up as the game progresses. What would the odds be of hitting a Goblin Charbelcher OR a Forest, assuming it's turn 1, and I only had one land in my opening hand.
Modern: Top Control -- UWx Titan -- Loam Pox -- Footsteps Hulk
Legacy: Doomsday -- Death and Taxes -- UR Stasis -- Sylvan Plug
Pauper: UB Teachings -- UR Nivix Control
Of course, most of the data presented is from Spoils turn 1. By the time we find all 8 lands, we tend to have somewhere between 43-46 cards in our library. But by then, an opposing deck will identify that we are defenseless and start chipping away at our life total via burn or creatures (our creatures aren't impenetrable, they are flimsy and die easily. Just imagine what a Pyroclasm would do to us). By the time we get all 8 lands out of the deck, we could have 16 life or 2 life.
With the testing I did, with Fog effects and lifegain and without those and with Spoils and Plunge, I found myself losing to aggro and burn at around 0-6 life and being at an average of 12 life to Jund and at 8 from UWR control. From there, Spoils for Belcher would kill me ~70% of the games I played and Plunge got me the card I needed ~34% of the time.
Of course, the real context here is not fetching for specifically Belcher but for other pieces we need. But most of the time, we fetch for Belcher.
Modern: Top Control -- UWx Titan -- Loam Pox -- Footsteps Hulk
Legacy: Doomsday -- Death and Taxes -- UR Stasis -- Sylvan Plug
Pauper: UB Teachings -- UR Nivix Control
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
That's also another factor. Since this deck wants to win T4-7, we can use Spoils for a variety of reasons. But at a really late time like that, we are more prone to taking damage from sources that actually matter. So even if we Spoils late, there's still a good chance we'll die from it.
I'm not saying that Spoils/Plunge are bad, I personally love those cards, but in this deck, they just aren't good. I pretty much did the testing too.
I guess with other people, the feeling for those tutors will change, as the variance really kicks in for those cards.
Modern: Top Control -- UWx Titan -- Loam Pox -- Footsteps Hulk
Legacy: Doomsday -- Death and Taxes -- UR Stasis -- Sylvan Plug
Pauper: UB Teachings -- UR Nivix Control
RogueOS mentioned Abundance, it could be interesting. I don't like that it does nothing in multiples, it's a card you would hate to see two of, especially in your opening hand. I do like it though. I'm curious about testing results. I'll probably try it as a one of, I'm running 4 Healing Leaves, which I love, but it's another card I don't like having 2 of in my opening hand, so 3 may be the right amount.
On another note, I was wondering if a super magic math nerd could maybe run some numbers on Ancient Stirrings. What are the odds it hits a Forest and/or Goblin Charbelcher, and in what scenarios? I'd really appreciate that.
UBRKess, Dissident MageUBR - Controlling Dissidents
GRhonas the IndomitableG - Indomitable Four Drops
WUBOloro, Ageless AsceticWUB - Loot & Renanimate
On the subject of land thinning, though most of the 2cmc 1 land spells go, look into Edge of Autumn as it can double as a cantrip later on when you're top decking.Whoops! Missed the train, looks like you guys discussed it already a page back. Anyway, carry on with the fine thread! Here's hoping you guys find a way to really iron out its consistency!
Okay, so here's what I learned from this deck so far.
1) We really really really want T1 mana, and since Chrome Mox is banned, we need to mulligan aggressively. Thankfully, Chancellor of the Tangle is really good at doubling as that one mana and a beater that we can realistically cast if our gameplay somehow fails. I just really want him to have lifelink, WHY WIZARDS?
2) Harrow is awesome. We just only need to cast it once. Casting it twice means we sometimes cannot play Belcher and pop it. Still very possible with 8 mana dorks. I'm trying out 3.
3) This deck has a lot of focused support. This is why I also decided to abandon a splash of black. We run something like 32 land tutors and 4 copies of Belcher with 5 spells to dig it up, with 12 cards that give us mana and bodies. Honestly, I feel a little silly for thinking that we needed more tutors. This entire deck is 75% tutors. The combo is literally 8 lands and Goblin Charbelcher.
4) Recross the Paths is insanely powerful. Once we set up, there isn't many ways to stop 4 Charbelchers from coming down and activating in a row. Hand disruption doesn't stop us. Counterspells only delay the inevitable. UWR runs like only 6 relevant counterspells. If we have 7 mana and Charbelcher, our opponents can't use spell based removal to destroy it. They cannot activate Quasali Pridemage.
5) Abundance is pretty good. And by pretty good, I mean enough for me to seriously consider it as a 2-of. On turn 3, this thing fetches you lands without any investment of mana after the fact. It speeds up the process, even if you spent your entire turn 3 casting the damn thing. And it doubles as a way to finish the game without needing to spend mana on Recross the Paths. Instead, we can do other silly things like casting Chancellor, giving our opponent something to worry about.
This deck is a dream to play and well formed and seriously fun.
My only gripe is that it's sometimes a turn too slow. Storm plays 13 spells on turn 3. Cherri0s has a turn 2 win that is actually realistic and can be achieved a startling percentage of the time (not that it's an actual competitive deck, but you get the point). Burn and Infect and Boggles just rams a huge number of damage down our throats. Affinity does things I don't even want to mention. Elves can win turn 3 pretty consistently. So can all-in-on-that-Splinter-Twin. Sometimes, this deck doesn't get there.
But who cares, it's Belcher. It finally works in Modern! Yes!
@Honor: It really depends on how many lands/Belchers are left in the deck and how many cards are in the deck. From there, it's pretty much simple probability without replacement. But if you really want in-depth charts, I am not your man. I can do calculations like that in my head, but to prop up a chart with every relevant scenario is too strenuous.
Modern: Top Control -- UWx Titan -- Loam Pox -- Footsteps Hulk
Legacy: Doomsday -- Death and Taxes -- UR Stasis -- Sylvan Plug
Pauper: UB Teachings -- UR Nivix Control
However it's worth nothing, against certain match ups without artifact removal, like mono black for instance, we can cast Goblin Charbelcher before we crack it. This makes it even easier to win on turn 4. I'll also cast Charbelcher early if I have another one in my hand, and sometimes I'll pop it even with 1 or 2 lands in the deck remaning. It still can do a ton of damage, even lethal.
Recross the Paths is excellent, especially when we win the clash, which happens quite frequently, because we almost never reveal a land when we clash.
I don't think the deck is "too slow." Shapeshift, Merlia Pod, Jund, Infect and other Proven decks are slower than this deck.
UBRKess, Dissident MageUBR - Controlling Dissidents
GRhonas the IndomitableG - Indomitable Four Drops
WUBOloro, Ageless AsceticWUB - Loot & Renanimate
I don't use any spells costing more than 3 mana to cast (other than Belcher of course, and Chancellor, but I basically never cast it). They slow down the deck. Removing all lands is not a good reason; I'd rather take a risk and fire off Belcher on turn 4 with 1 Forest + 2 Stomping Ground in my deck, than be forced to wait till turn 5 every single time.
Ancient Stirrings is a necessary evil. It whiffs remarkably often, but it's the best way of getting Belcher.
The wall package is underwhelming, mostly because it does not thin the deck of lands. I'd stick to mana Elves. Speaking of which, there are four of them that generate mana unconditionally: Llanowar Elves, Elvish Mystic, Birds of Paradise and Noble Hierarch. I missed the last two.
If you have to play walls, stick to Wall of Roots, since it can generate mana the turn it comes down. Talismans (Talisman of Impulse/Talisman of Unity) can do that too.
All in all, this deck doesn't seem competitive because it just dies if it doesn't draw Belcher, or if Belcher gets countered/destroyed/exiled/whatever. The reliance on easily-killed mana dorks doesn't help either. The sideboard is also a giant blank, since this deck already has a hard enough time goldfishing a turn 4 win. Overall, a fun deck to goldfish and tweak, but nothing competitive.
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
I think the deck could do well in smaller tournaments as a meta call. I mean hell, I got 3rd with Cheeri0s some weeks ago and that deck 'dies to creature removal' simply because everyone else was also playing combo but I was the fastest combo in town.
There's not a lot of things that people main deck to actually deal with belcher if it resolves. Maelstrom Pulse? The worst thing the deck is going to have to fight through is counter magic. But a resolved Recross the Paths with a landless deck gives you 4 Belchers in a row of top decks.
Wall of Roots looks really good. Unlike Sakura Tribe Elder and Gatecreeper Vine, it's not a chump blocker. It's a real road block.
I'm not sure if it's necessary to max up Safewright Quest, Lay of the Land AND Caravan Vigil. But they are essential, especially to prevent mulligans, I'm thinking maybe 9 or 10, but probably not 12.
I think izzetmage is being a little hard on the deck's viability. Yeah you have to draw Goblin Charbelcher, but it almost always happens because we a run numerous amount of tutors, filters and fetches. Playing Esper or Bant Gifts is very difficult if you don't draw Gifts Ungiven. Hive Mind doesn't work at all unless you draw Hive Mind, and at one point in Modern it was actually quite competitive. Not saying this is a tier 1 deck or anything, and from looking at izzetmage's primer's, I take it he's a very competitive player. That being said I would not say this is a bad or mediocre deck without any good match up. At a semi competitive FNM Magic, or even a more competitive environment, this deck could certainly raise some eyebrows and certainly win some games.
UBRKess, Dissident MageUBR - Controlling Dissidents
GRhonas the IndomitableG - Indomitable Four Drops
WUBOloro, Ageless AsceticWUB - Loot & Renanimate
As stated, we can get to 7 with mana dorks, but sometimes that won't happen. Pyroclasm wrecks us. A smart opponent will throw their removal at our dorks. (Or at least one that knows what's going on)
You know, there's so many lines of play, but I'd just like to say that we get Charbelcher from Recross the Paths. They're are times where we find ourselves with a Belcher and a land or two in the deck, but I don't feel comfortable popping it for ????? amount of damage.
Yup! We never pass priority to them beyond casting Belcher, so spell based and permanent based removal won't take out Belcher. And rarely will a control deck have 4 relevant counterspells in a row.
Wall of Roots seems good, it also turns on Morbid for Caravan Vigil (lol)
The one drop area could use a bit more work. Again, we aren't exactly sure what an ideal number is for each card. But with diligent testing I'm pretty sure we can come to a solution that helps that issue.
Like I said before, this deck is really focused. We have 5 (6 for me) ways to find Belcher, 4 Belcher, and a ton of land fetches. In comparison to other combo deca, we have way too many tutors, but it works. I feel like the 2 extra Abundance really helped ease the pain of finding Belcher and helps us be less prone to fizzling into waiting until we draw it.
Modern: Top Control -- UWx Titan -- Loam Pox -- Footsteps Hulk
Legacy: Doomsday -- Death and Taxes -- UR Stasis -- Sylvan Plug
Pauper: UB Teachings -- UR Nivix Control
Just for benchmark purposes, how many lands left in the deck when you combo off is ideal (if you have to combo off with lands left in the deck)?
One to two maybe?
This will help me figure out by the odds, how many tutors will work.
*Edit* Here's what we really need to do: Figure out the ideal hand composition in the manner of:
Lands
Dork
Tutors - 1 CMC
Tutors - 2 CMC+
I forsee the distribution as something like this:
1-2, Mana sources (Land/Chancellor)
2-3, 1 CMC Tutors (or dig spell)
1-2, Dorks
1 2, CMC+ Tutor (or dig spell)
The reason we can drop some tutors is that in the 2 CMC+ slot we might be 2-for-1 fetching lands. This means you can squeeze more redundancy or alternate wincons into the deck.
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
Sometimes I like to go off with one land left, but I failed many times at 1 land. 0 is ideal.
Modern: Top Control -- UWx Titan -- Loam Pox -- Footsteps Hulk
Legacy: Doomsday -- Death and Taxes -- UR Stasis -- Sylvan Plug
Pauper: UB Teachings -- UR Nivix Control
Seems like that matchup would suck.
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
Yep, I am totally onboard with that notion, but likely and worst case scenarios have to be taken into account for a good hard look at the stats.
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
Also, I just came up with a really stupid idea
We use Harrow and sometimes we sac a land. How about we sac a shockland Mountain and then use a card that puts a card from our graveyard onto the bottom of our library after we use Recross the Paths for double damage?
Hmmm...
I'll look into it.
Modern: Top Control -- UWx Titan -- Loam Pox -- Footsteps Hulk
Legacy: Doomsday -- Death and Taxes -- UR Stasis -- Sylvan Plug
Pauper: UB Teachings -- UR Nivix Control
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
But then again, top 5 of your library isn't the best way to do this.
I'm actually set on using Harrow as a way to bin a shockland, then use a spell to put that land on the bottom. I remember there was a card that did it for 2 mana, but I cannot find it.
Modern: Top Control -- UWx Titan -- Loam Pox -- Footsteps Hulk
Legacy: Doomsday -- Death and Taxes -- UR Stasis -- Sylvan Plug
Pauper: UB Teachings -- UR Nivix Control
This would be a really bad match up for us, but there's no deck with zero bad match ups (except Jund :p)
I also think Merfolk would be pretty rough, with stuff like Spreading Seas, and them Islandwalking all over us.
UBRKess, Dissident MageUBR - Controlling Dissidents
GRhonas the IndomitableG - Indomitable Four Drops
WUBOloro, Ageless AsceticWUB - Loot & Renanimate
UBRKess, Dissident MageUBR - Controlling Dissidents
GRhonas the IndomitableG - Indomitable Four Drops
WUBOloro, Ageless AsceticWUB - Loot & Renanimate
Then Stirrings will result in 1 of 5 possibilities:
0 Belchers, 5 non-Belchers
1 Belcher, 4 non-Belchers
2 Belchers, 3 non-Belchers
3 Belchers, 2 non-Belchers
4 Belchers, 1 non-Belcher
To find the probability of hitting at least one Belcher, just take 1 - the probability of hitting 0 Belchers.
Assume 53 cards in library:
Probability of hitting 0 Belchers = ([4C0]*[(53-4)C5])/([53C5]) = 0.66449
On a TI-89: nCr(4,0)*nCr(53-4,5)/nCr(53,5)
to elaborate: the first term nCr(4,0) is the number of Belchers you see (0 of 4), the second term nCr(53-4,5) is the number of non-Belchers you see (5 of 53-4), and the last term nCr(53,5) is the total number of possible 5-card "hands" you can see.
Thus, probability of hitting 1 or more Belchers = 1-0.66449 = 0.33551.
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
Interesting analysis izzetmage, 33% isn't bad at all, and that number only goes up as the game progresses. What would the odds be of hitting a Goblin Charbelcher OR a Forest, assuming it's turn 1, and I only had one land in my opening hand.
What would be the odds of us drawing 1 land or Chancellor of the Tangle in the opening hand?
Im trying to really get an understand of how the deck works, what the optimal turn 1 and turn 2 plays are. How to make the best decisions, etc.
UBRKess, Dissident MageUBR - Controlling Dissidents
GRhonas the IndomitableG - Indomitable Four Drops
WUBOloro, Ageless AsceticWUB - Loot & Renanimate