Elspeth puts out 1/1s on her plus, which is quite strong, and being able to jump + pump creatures is pretty strong.
You don't want to load up on too many walkers of the same type, so having an elspeth in addition to sorins and gideons is nice.
On top of that, giving something +3/+3 can speed up your clock by a good margin. It turns snapcasters and spirits into real threats, and heaven forbid you ever pump gideon, germ tokens, or manlands.
Seconded. Clogging up the board on a + ability is great, and in a midrange deck like this that can apply some decent mid-to-late-game pressure, throwing your creatures at the opponent often just wins it for you on the spot.
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WUBRG Humans BRW Mardu Pyromancer UW UW "Control" UR Blue Moon
i would like to post a decklist i want to play in the next few weeks.. i already play Mardu Nahiri(+Lili) and BW Tokens, so i have lot of the black and white staples and i would like to build an Esper deck because i think it should shine currently.. i want to disrupt my opponents hand with black hand disruption + Liliana and make pressure with Geist and Gideon..
Dylan Brown gives my ET community a shoutout and shares his thoughts on the deck during the event. He also emphasizes the significance of Narset Transcendent in ET.
I am delighted to see this list make a nice place.
Can you tell me how, according to you, Dylan Brown has his side plan for the games he played?
Sorry for my bad english
I want to progress on how to sider between each game according to the current match-up.
This is the sideboard guide that Dylan posted in the FB community
So before we get started sideboarding its important to understand a few things about the deck
1) we are a midrange deck.
2) as we are using 4 liliana, we dont really care about card advantage, its about card quality, and as a tapout deck, this is fine in conjunction with liliana
3) dont overboard if the matchup is already good, why fix it if its not broken?
4) if you choose to play other cards in your sideboard, go ahead! but make sure your cards come in for multiple purposes and matchups and arent just "i have a foil one" or "my friend won FNM with this one card one time"
ABZAN
this is actually close to a mirror, with Narset being the essential trump as it allows us to grind through more cards, while stranding removal in their hand they toss to lili
on the play, and draw is different, as lili goes down in stock on the draw
so play
- 2 Thoughtseize
-1 brutality
+ 1 Baneslayer Angel
+ 1 surgical
+ 1 Rest in Peace
on the draw -2 liliana over Thoughtseize
JUND
Similar to bazan, but not as much emphasis on graveyard. Keep it simple, dont get carried away
- 1 tseize
- 1 brutality
+ 1 flex (Disenchant if you feel they may have choke/night of souls betrayal or some random other permanent, otherwise keep the brutality MD
+ 1 baneslayer
GRIXIS DELVER
- 2 verdict
- 2 push
- 1 brutality
+ 1 dispel
+ 2 Countersquall
+ 1 surgical
+ 1 Rest in Peace (hoses gurmags and kcommand engine enough im happy to sacrifice souls and my own snaps)
GRIXIS CONTROL
Aim your discard for their Counterspells/taisgur, force through liliana and the game is essentially over
- 3 push
- 2 verdict
+ 2 Countersquall
+ 1 dispel
+ 1 surgical
+ 1 Banelsayer angel
JESKAI
almost exactly the same as grixis control, except be weary of SB Blood Moon, and we only care about their colonnades so path is out
affinity
- 2 liliana
+ 1 Disenchant
+ 1 Baneslayer Angel
lili looks garbage with so manay manlands, just be careful timing when to cast her
Deaths shadow
they have sideboard Lingering Souls, often lili is an edict, and then you rarely tick her up again, unless you have your own souls to counter theirs. the sb souls is really the only dealbreaker, so board in a surgical or 2.
BANTDRAZI
not much really changes tbh, drop when she is safe-ish( with smasher is anything safe?)
- 1 brutality
- 2 inquisition
+ 1 Baneslayer Angel
+ 2 geist
BURN!!!!!
Yeah this feels terrifying but is randomly really easy. each lili tick up is gain 3 life
Think that you have a lot of 1 cmc removal, and you can flashback them easily. But Wrath effects are me expensive to do that, and many times you want to have them in your hand rather than in your graveyard because of that.
Lilly is an absurdly powerful card, but more removal would be fine. Such changes could even be arguably better depending on your play style and meta. Just be mindful of what purposes LotV serves in the first and probably second games; some examples are: edict for bogles/infect, wincon vs blue-based control and general lightning rod.
Make sure you cover your bases well enough and a reprint may not matter. I've been using LotVs since they were printed and they're only that good in particular decks...we're talking formats too. I'm skeptical that Esper Transcendent exploits them as effectively as other decks.
The bigger context for this opinion is important, I suppose: the deck can be clunky, so avoiding cards like LotV and going deeper into draw/filter/cheap or flexible removal is one way to curb that. LotV is a card that you need to pull ahead with in some way, which is why Jund uses them so effectively due to their aggro plan. With UWB Transcendent, if you're on your heels vs. some kind of linear aggro deck, a 1BB sorcery-speed edict(ideally soaks up some kind of other dmg.)is often not great.
With the explosion of Death's Shadow decks, I would wager that running 4 esper charms could be good since decks like that dump their hands fast, but usually sandbag a card or two along the way.
With the explosion of Death's Shadow decks, I would wager that running 4 esper charms could be good since decks like that dump their hands fast, but usually sandbag a card or two along the way.
Interesting question. I think both modes could be very good vs. DSA because of how heavily it relies on depleting its opponent's resources. Being able to make them drop their hand or put yourself ahead on resources makes their primary lines of play difficult.
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WUBRG Humans BRW Mardu Pyromancer UW UW "Control" UR Blue Moon
No synergy with narset, only gets one card off the top, doesn't sequence well with all the 1cc spell on turn two...why run wall over serum visions again?
Timely reinforcements do that, but synergize more with the deck.
In addition to all of the paths, pushes, blessed alliances, and verdicts, walls aren't necessary.
#The Ultimate is rather good but not particularly fast and can be easily kept in check by burn spells (if all the creatures are dealt with) and doesn't impact aggro decks at all. Jace, Unraveler of Secrets has a similar Ultimate which can be sometimes better and Ob Nixilis Reignited's ability will usually win the game.
With the amount of discard in this deck it shouldn't be too difficult to check (or make sure) that it is safe to cast Jace, Vryn's Prodigy and do it so he can flip the next turn.
Narset does almost nothing on turn 4 anyway so it is comparable to casting 5-cmc PW (which is better) on turn 5 imho.
Wall of Omens vs Serum Vision: wall is more mana expensive, doesn't scry, can't be flashbacked/rebounded and dies to removal. We have Soul tokens to block on early game.
Jace, Vryn's Prodigy: activates opponent's removal. Also, we prefer Snapcates due to instant speed flashbacks.
Jace, Architect of Thought: Is an option, but not the better one. Again, we have lingering souls, so his +1 is not that relevant for us. We have to use his -2 in order to draw something weakening him (vs Narset's +1) and he has a low starting loyalty.
Jace, Unraveler of Secrets/Ob Nixilis Reignited: These 5 CMC walkers are slow for this deck. Narset comes earlier. Protecting her doesn't have to be an issue with all the discard, removal and blockers we have.
Dovin Baan: I played him alongside Nasert some time ago. It's a fine option, but metagame dependent. He is good agaist midrange decks that have bigger creatures or utility ones instead of massive 1/1's or 2/2's.
Finaly Narset Transcendent herself: You usually will be using the +1, in my experience (4/5 months playing the deck) she draws a 70-80% of the time. Also, presents a clock that most people fear, and they will aggressively try to kill her. Letting you concentrate on controlling the board.
Latest versions of the deck (the ones that play Liliana) are cutting Narset or putting her on the sideboard. I think that is ok. She may be not the best option on this metagame. But still viable.
Think on Jeskai decks playing Ajani Vengeant, Gideon Jura, Jace Architect of Thought and Elspeth Sun's Champion. They are all good options depending on the metagame. I think this is what's going to happen with this deck. We have 5-7 PW slots in the deck that we can fill depending on personal and metagame choices, and for that I think our best options are:
I didn't do the math, and honestly I don't want to. It's not nonsense, I have empiric experience with the deck, and I know for a fact that Narset draws A LOT.
If you don't like the card, don't play it. And move on
FWIW, narset draws a decent amount given that
1) you already have atleast 4 lands (misses) in play.
2) Fetches thin misses from your deck.
3) Serum visions helps to set up more narset draws.
That being said, lets be generous and say you've got 15 lands in your deck when you play her (excluding lands in hand, lands in play, lands in graveyard and lands scried to the bottom), you're still missing 25% of your draws. And thats being very generous.
You will most often have more lands, a few creatures, etc, that miss.
I didn't do the math, and honestly I don't want to. It's not nonsense, I have empiric experience with the deck, and I know for a fact that Narset draws A LOT.
No, saying "...in my experience (4/5 months playing the deck) she draws a [card] 70-80% of the time" absolutely is nonsense. That's not a matter of liking the card or not; it's simply pushing back against a false statement.
It's not worth getting bogged down in anyways, because Narset's value isn't predicated on whether or not she draws you a card specifically 70-80% of the time.
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WUBRG Humans BRW Mardu Pyromancer UW UW "Control" UR Blue Moon
You know what I think is nonsense? Being rude to the most helpful person in this forum, who has experience with this deck that most of you obviously haven't even picked up, and who spends their time answering questions for noobs (to the deck).
I did some math. The absolute worst case (on the play, turn 4, drew exactly 4 lands and 0 creatures, fetched 0 times, drew 0 extra cards, and scryed 0 cards to the bottom) is 54% hitrate.
However, it's very likely that I don't jam Narset on T4, draw extra cards off of Visions and Esper Charm, scryed away lands 5+, or fetched to shuffle them away after Narset's previous reveal. I've probably fetched at least twice. So if I fetched twice, scryed once, and drew 1 creature and 1 more land over5 more looks, then I'm left with 60% hits on T4. The longer the game goes, (and it probably will), the higher the rate gets.
SO, you're technically right that it isn't 70 most of the time, but it is still A LOT. And the clarification was A LOT. So get off your high horse.
You know what I think is nonsense? Being rude to the most helpful person in this forum, who has experience with this deck that most of you obviously haven't even picked up, and who spends their time answering questions for noobs (to the deck).
I did some math. The absolute worst case (on the play, turn 4, drew exactly 4 lands and 0 creatures, fetched 0 times, drew 0 extra cards, and scryed 0 cards to the bottom) is 54% hitrate.
However, it's very likely that I don't jam Narset on T4, draw extra cards off of Visions and Esper Charm, scryed away lands 5+, or fetched to shuffle them away after Narset's previous reveal. I've probably fetched at least twice. So if I fetched twice, scryed once, and drew 1 creature and 1 more land over5 more looks, then I'm left with 60% hits on T4. The longer the game goes, (and it probably will), the higher the rate gets.
SO, you're technically right that it isn't 70 most of the time, but it is still A LOT. And the clarification was A LOT. So get off your high horse.
I'm not convinced that criticism of arguments based on falsehoods constitutes rudeness, especially when the poster in question doubled down by saying "No, it's not nonsense" before moving the bar to just "a lot." I don't think it's worth getting in a tussle over and I'm certainly not trying to be holier than thou. Just want to keep things grounded in reality.
Reality like the very useful information you provided on 54%, which is a great addition to the conversation. I think my napkin math earlier today came out to low 60% assuming 32 targets and 3 fetches (a little generous, but not totally unreasonable).
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WUBRG Humans BRW Mardu Pyromancer UW UW "Control" UR Blue Moon
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Seconded. Clogging up the board on a + ability is great, and in a midrange deck like this that can apply some decent mid-to-late-game pressure, throwing your creatures at the opponent often just wins it for you on the spot.
WUBRG Humans
BRW Mardu Pyromancer
UW UW "Control"
UR Blue Moon
Here's this original post with the list:
WUBRG Humans
BRW Mardu Pyromancer
UW UW "Control"
UR Blue Moon
MTG Modern - Competitive: UWx Midrange/Control
Facebook.com/ModernUWxControl
MTG Modern - Competitive: UWx Midrange/Control Community
Facebook.com/Groups/MTGModernUWx
I'm also an Admin for one of the premier Modern communities on Facebook:
Magic the Gathering: Modern Meta Masters
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Dylan Brown - 21st
Esper Transcendent
http://magic.wizards.com/en/events/coverage/gpbri17/9-32-decklists-2017-02-19
Day 1:
Lantern (L)
Grixis Control (W)
Affinity (L)
Affinity (W)
Boggles (W)
Kiki chord (W)
Abzan (W)
Jund (W)
Abzan (W)
Day 2:
Death's Shadow Jund (W)
Goryo's Expertise (W)
Cheerios (W)
Grixis Delver (W)
Burn (W)
Dredge (L)
Dylan Brown gives my ET community a shoutout and shares his thoughts on the deck during the event. He also emphasizes the significance of Narset Transcendent in ET.
http://magic.wizards.com/en/events/coverage/gpbri17/top-5-moments-grand-prix-brisbane-2017-02-19
MTG Modern - Competitive: UWx Midrange/Control
Facebook.com/ModernUWxControl
MTG Modern - Competitive: UWx Midrange/Control Community
Facebook.com/Groups/MTGModernUWx
I'm also an Admin for one of the premier Modern communities on Facebook:
Magic the Gathering: Modern Meta Masters
https://www.facebook.com/groups/ModernMetaMasters/
MTG Modern - Competitive: UWx Midrange/Control
Facebook.com/ModernUWxControl
MTG Modern - Competitive: UWx Midrange/Control Community
Facebook.com/Groups/MTGModernUWx
I'm also an Admin for one of the premier Modern communities on Facebook:
Magic the Gathering: Modern Meta Masters
https://www.facebook.com/groups/ModernMetaMasters/
This is the sideboard guide that Dylan posted in the FB community
So before we get started sideboarding its important to understand a few things about the deck
1) we are a midrange deck.
2) as we are using 4 liliana, we dont really care about card advantage, its about card quality, and as a tapout deck, this is fine in conjunction with liliana
3) dont overboard if the matchup is already good, why fix it if its not broken?
4) if you choose to play other cards in your sideboard, go ahead! but make sure your cards come in for multiple purposes and matchups and arent just "i have a foil one" or "my friend won FNM with this one card one time"
ABZAN
this is actually close to a mirror, with Narset being the essential trump as it allows us to grind through more cards, while stranding removal in their hand they toss to lili
on the play, and draw is different, as lili goes down in stock on the draw
so play
- 2 Thoughtseize
-1 brutality
+ 1 Baneslayer Angel
+ 1 surgical
+ 1 Rest in Peace
on the draw -2 liliana over Thoughtseize
JUND
Similar to bazan, but not as much emphasis on graveyard. Keep it simple, dont get carried away
- 1 tseize
- 1 brutality
+ 1 flex (Disenchant if you feel they may have choke/night of souls betrayal or some random other permanent, otherwise keep the brutality MD
+ 1 baneslayer
GRIXIS DELVER
- 2 verdict
- 2 push
- 1 brutality
+ 1 dispel
+ 2 Countersquall
+ 1 surgical
+ 1 Rest in Peace (hoses gurmags and kcommand engine enough im happy to sacrifice souls and my own snaps)
GRIXIS CONTROL
Aim your discard for their Counterspells/taisgur, force through liliana and the game is essentially over
- 3 push
- 2 verdict
+ 2 Countersquall
+ 1 dispel
+ 1 surgical
+ 1 Banelsayer angel
JESKAI
almost exactly the same as grixis control, except be weary of SB Blood Moon, and we only care about their colonnades so path is out
- 3 path
- 2 verdict
- 1 brutality
+ 1 dispel
+ 1 surgical
+ 1 Disenchant
+ 2 Countersquall
+ 1 Baneslayer Angel
affinity
- 2 liliana
+ 1 Disenchant
+ 1 Baneslayer Angel
lili looks garbage with so manay manlands, just be careful timing when to cast her
Deaths shadow
they have sideboard Lingering Souls, often lili is an edict, and then you rarely tick her up again, unless you have your own souls to counter theirs. the sb souls is really the only dealbreaker, so board in a surgical or 2.
- 1 liliana
- 1 brutality (doesnt kill anything)
+ 1 surgical
+ 1 Baneslayer Angel
CHEERIOS
basically just wait and kill whatever dude they have, aim surgicals at Mox Opal, and retracts and hey will REALLLLY STRUGGLE!
- 1 brutality (too sow)
- 2 verdict
- 2 Narset (WAAAAAAAAY TOO SLOW)
- 3 souls (irrelevant really)
+ 2 Meddling Mage (name retract)
+ 2 geist
+ 1 dispel
+ 1 surgical
+ 1 Disenchant (leylines)
+ 1 ;Lost Legacy
valakut
URGH **** THIS DECK
- 3 Fatal Push
- 2 verdict
- 4 souls
- 1 brutality
+ 1 surgical
+ 2 Meddling Mage
+ 1 Lost Legacy
+ 2 geist
+ 2 timely
+ 2 Countersquall
BANTDRAZI
not much really changes tbh, drop when she is safe-ish( with smasher is anything safe?)
- 1 brutality
- 2 inquisition
+ 1 Baneslayer Angel
+ 2 geist
BURN!!!!!
Yeah this feels terrifying but is randomly really easy. each lili tick up is gain 3 life
- 4 Lingering Souls
- 2 verdict
- 2 Narset
+ 1 dispel
+ 2 geist
+ 2 timely
+ 1 Baneslayer Angel
+ 2 Countersquall
Tron
ALSO **** THIS DECK
- 1 Path to Exile
- 1 Snapcaster Mage
- 1 brutality (cant take karn)
- 2 verdict
- 3 push
- 1 liliana
+ 2 Meddling Mage
+ 2 geist
+ 1 Lost Legacy
+ 1 surgical
+ 2 Countersquall
+ 1 Disenchant
This is my Lili-less list for reference (I'm staying here until I get the Lilianas):
2 Creeping Tar Pit
1 Drowned Catacomb
3 Flooded Strand
2 Ghost Quarter
1 Godless Shrine
2 Hallowed Fountain
2 Island
2 Marsh Flats
2 Plains
3 Polluted Delta
2 Shambling Vent
1 Swamp
1 Watery Grave
3 Snapcaster Mage
Sorcery (18)
1 Collective Brutality
3 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Lingering Souls
4 Serum Visions
3 Supreme Verdict
3 Thoughtseize
Instant (10)
1 Blessed Alliance
3 Esper Charm
2 Fatal Push
4 Path to Exile
Planeswalker (5)
1 Elspeth, Knight-Errant
2 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
2 Narset Transcendent
1 Baneslayer Angel
1 Blessed Alliance
1 Collective Brutality
2 Countersquall
1 Disdainful Stroke
1 Disenchant
1 Extirpate
2 Geist of Saint Traft
2 Lost Legacy
1 Negate
2 Surgical Extraction
Sorry, bud. We have a personal team group, but we'll get around to posting it in the public community.
MTG Modern - Competitive: UWx Midrange/Control
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MTG Modern - Competitive: UWx Midrange/Control Community
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Magic the Gathering: Modern Meta Masters
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My bad. didn't notice it was in the other group.
I'm waiting for a Lily reprint. Can I replace her with something until then?
Been using the GP list and +1 Sorin +1 Esper Charm +1 Collective Brutality +1 Fatal Push so far.
Think that you have a lot of 1 cmc removal, and you can flashback them easily. But Wrath effects are me expensive to do that, and many times you want to have them in your hand rather than in your graveyard because of that.
Make sure you cover your bases well enough and a reprint may not matter. I've been using LotVs since they were printed and they're only that good in particular decks...we're talking formats too. I'm skeptical that Esper Transcendent exploits them as effectively as other decks.
The bigger context for this opinion is important, I suppose: the deck can be clunky, so avoiding cards like LotV and going deeper into draw/filter/cheap or flexible removal is one way to curb that. LotV is a card that you need to pull ahead with in some way, which is why Jund uses them so effectively due to their aggro plan. With UWB Transcendent, if you're on your heels vs. some kind of linear aggro deck, a 1BB sorcery-speed edict(ideally soaks up some kind of other dmg.)is often not great.
Interesting question. I think both modes could be very good vs. DSA because of how heavily it relies on depleting its opponent's resources. Being able to make them drop their hand or put yourself ahead on resources makes their primary lines of play difficult.
WUBRG Humans
BRW Mardu Pyromancer
UW UW "Control"
UR Blue Moon
In addition to all of the paths, pushes, blessed alliances, and verdicts, walls aren't necessary.
Jace, Vryn's Prodigy/Jace, Telepath Unbound, Jace, Architect of Thought, Jace, Unraveler of Secrets, Dovin Baan or Ob Nixilis Reignited ?
#Her +1 has less than 50% of hitting (the deck has 25-28/60 instants/sorceries) which is much worse than Jace, Unraveler of Secrets/Ob Nixilis Reignited +1, Dovin Baan -1 or Jace, Architect of Thought -2.
#Her -2 is rather situational (and win-more), I would prefer Jace, Telepath Unbound -3.
#The Ultimate is rather good but not particularly fast and can be easily kept in check by burn spells (if all the creatures are dealt with) and doesn't impact aggro decks at all.
Jace, Unraveler of Secrets has a similar Ultimate which can be sometimes better and Ob Nixilis Reignited's ability will usually win the game.
#She doesn't protect herself unlike Ob Nixilis Reignited which destroys a creature,Jace, Unraveler of Secrets which can bounce a creature (or your own Snapcaster) or Jace, Telepath Unbound/Jace, Architect of Thought/Dovin Baan which can weaken opposing creatures.
#She doesn't pressure the opponent like Gideon or even Elspeth (or Sorin) that can attack or create tokens.
Narset does almost nothing on turn 4 anyway so it is comparable to casting 5-cmc PW (which is better) on turn 5 imho.
Wall of Omens vs Serum Vision: wall is more mana expensive, doesn't scry, can't be flashbacked/rebounded and dies to removal. We have Soul tokens to block on early game.
Jace, Vryn's Prodigy: activates opponent's removal. Also, we prefer Snapcates due to instant speed flashbacks.
Jace, Architect of Thought: Is an option, but not the better one. Again, we have lingering souls, so his +1 is not that relevant for us. We have to use his -2 in order to draw something weakening him (vs Narset's +1) and he has a low starting loyalty.
Jace, Unraveler of Secrets/Ob Nixilis Reignited: These 5 CMC walkers are slow for this deck. Narset comes earlier. Protecting her doesn't have to be an issue with all the discard, removal and blockers we have.
Dovin Baan: I played him alongside Nasert some time ago. It's a fine option, but metagame dependent. He is good agaist midrange decks that have bigger creatures or utility ones instead of massive 1/1's or 2/2's.
Finaly Narset Transcendent herself: You usually will be using the +1, in my experience (4/5 months playing the deck) she draws a 70-80% of the time. Also, presents a clock that most people fear, and they will aggressively try to kill her. Letting you concentrate on controlling the board.
Latest versions of the deck (the ones that play Liliana) are cutting Narset or putting her on the sideboard. I think that is ok. She may be not the best option on this metagame. But still viable.
Think on Jeskai decks playing Ajani Vengeant, Gideon Jura, Jace Architect of Thought and Elspeth Sun's Champion. They are all good options depending on the metagame. I think this is what's going to happen with this deck. We have 5-7 PW slots in the deck that we can fill depending on personal and metagame choices, and for that I think our best options are:
Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
Liliana of the Veil
Narset Transcendent
Elspet, Knight Errant
Gideon Jura
Sorin, Solemn Visitor
Elspeth, Sun's Champion
Jace, Architect of Thought
Not necessarily in that order.
If you don't like the card, don't play it. And move on
EDIT (doble posting):
I think 3 is a must, and the 4th is optional. The deck lists are very tight right now
1) you already have atleast 4 lands (misses) in play.
2) Fetches thin misses from your deck.
3) Serum visions helps to set up more narset draws.
That being said, lets be generous and say you've got 15 lands in your deck when you play her (excluding lands in hand, lands in play, lands in graveyard and lands scried to the bottom), you're still missing 25% of your draws. And thats being very generous.
You will most often have more lands, a few creatures, etc, that miss.
No, saying "...in my experience (4/5 months playing the deck) she draws a [card] 70-80% of the time" absolutely is nonsense. That's not a matter of liking the card or not; it's simply pushing back against a false statement.
It's not worth getting bogged down in anyways, because Narset's value isn't predicated on whether or not she draws you a card specifically 70-80% of the time.
WUBRG Humans
BRW Mardu Pyromancer
UW UW "Control"
UR Blue Moon
I did some math. The absolute worst case (on the play, turn 4, drew exactly 4 lands and 0 creatures, fetched 0 times, drew 0 extra cards, and scryed 0 cards to the bottom) is 54% hitrate.
However, it's very likely that I don't jam Narset on T4, draw extra cards off of Visions and Esper Charm, scryed away lands 5+, or fetched to shuffle them away after Narset's previous reveal. I've probably fetched at least twice. So if I fetched twice, scryed once, and drew 1 creature and 1 more land over5 more looks, then I'm left with 60% hits on T4. The longer the game goes, (and it probably will), the higher the rate gets.
SO, you're technically right that it isn't 70 most of the time, but it is still A LOT. And the clarification was A LOT. So get off your high horse.
I'm not convinced that criticism of arguments based on falsehoods constitutes rudeness, especially when the poster in question doubled down by saying "No, it's not nonsense" before moving the bar to just "a lot." I don't think it's worth getting in a tussle over and I'm certainly not trying to be holier than thou. Just want to keep things grounded in reality.
Reality like the very useful information you provided on 54%, which is a great addition to the conversation. I think my napkin math earlier today came out to low 60% assuming 32 targets and 3 fetches (a little generous, but not totally unreasonable).
WUBRG Humans
BRW Mardu Pyromancer
UW UW "Control"
UR Blue Moon