Typically no one will have grave hate game one. The game plan game two doesn’t have to be all in combo. You can grab a different fatty like emperyial archangel, white or red akroma based on the matchup. Or just clock them with terrastodon if they have something to lock you out of graveyard. Alternatively you can play a wild cantor and a natures claim and just kill their piece before winning. We just need to be careful about not getting shoal surgicalled.
I often don't even go all-in on the OHKO combo in Game 1, anyway (if I didn't Summoner's Pact for Allosaurus Rider, I'm having success with holding back on using Griselbrand's ability until they try to boot him or kill me).
At this point, I'm starting to wonder whether Lightning Storm is the best win con; as an instant, you can importantly win with Lightning Storm with the Summoner's Pact lose-the-game trigger on the stack. This means you can delay your OHKO even further until you have more resources available.
It's possible that this comes at a consistency cost, though; while you can load up on stronger dig like Opt, Incubation // Incongruity, and Deadshot Minotaur instead of the Borborygmos Enraged combo's Manamorphose and See Beyond, Lightning Storm isn't green, and you may need two win cons to dodge Thought-Knot Seer. It's also possible that you may need to dig further into your deck on average to win with Lightning Storm than cheating out Borbo.
I already found a noticeably worse ability to dig for the combo with the BUG build with Soul Spike, even though I made Bound // Determined a 4-of in it. I believe it is because of the worse cantrips and the 4 additional non-green cards that don't cantrip.
It's possible that Borbo lists should still maindeck an alternate win con instead of the consistency crutch See Beyond; while See Beyond can also shuffle the last Griselbrand back into your deck, it cannot win the game for you. Both Laboratory Maniac and Jace, Wielder of Mysteries play nice with the mandatory Manamorphose in Borbo builds, neither of them target opponents in order to win the game, Lab Man can block and even attack, and Jace W can draw cards in passive match-ups, but man is Lab Man weak to removal (kill him with a Griselbrand draw trigger on the stack). It's also quite tempting to cast See Beyond to dig into the combo.
Very streamlined and just trying to win on t1-2 as often as possible. Temple of Mystery seems clunky but helps dig for the t2 kill; Grishoalbrand does the exact same thing. Otherwise we don't have many t1 plays anyway if they aren't insta-dead, and I'm concerned that a lot of builds don't have enough card selection that can find Evolution or Neoform.
Noxious Revival is the 5th Nourishing Shoal, and also makes me comfortable running only one Lightning Storm - if it gets Thoughtseized, just Noxious it back midcombo. Between Autochthons and effectively 5 Shoals, digging all the way to the bottom of the deck is not difficult.
I'll take the opportunity to talk about something no one else seems to have mentioned. Pacting for big creatures to pitch to Shoal midcombo is sometimes excellent and sometimes bad. Basically, you want to wind up with a deck size that is a multiple of 7 so that you can draw the whole thing and 100% find 3x Simian + Lightning Storm. So if you've got 21 or 35 cards left to draw, don't Pact! If you've got 20 or 34 cards left (or the like), you can probably fix it with Noxious Revival. If you've got 22, 23, 24 or 36, 37, 38 cards left, Pact away.
SB talk: 4x Chalice for when it wins; 4x U Pact versus permission decks; 4x Nature's Claim versus Cage and Leyline, and 3x Pongify for decks with annoying creatures (such as Eidolon of Rhetoric, Leonin Arbiter, Meddling Mage, Gaddock Teeg, and others).
Borborygmos as a wincon means not having to worry about drawing the entire deck; in fact you do not want to do that. If you have already gotten Borby out, and need (for some reason) to draw the rest of your deck, Manamorphose will probably do it (3 and 4 are the most likely leftover numbers on Turns 1 and 2). Lightning Storm also does not pitch to Shoals and Riders, and does not offer any advantages over Borborygmos; both are primarily weak to countermagic, both cost 3 (or sometimes 2 for Borb), and a Borb that lands but can't combo is still a threat that many decks cannot answer.
Incongruity is probably a better sideboard version of Pongify. Tougher mana, but much more use in the deck.
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Borborygmos as a wincon means not having to worry about drawing the entire deck; in fact you do not want to do that. If you have already gotten Borby out, and need (for some reason) to draw the rest of your deck, Manamorphose will probably do it (3 and 4 are the most likely leftover numbers on Turns 1 and 2). Lightning Storm also does not pitch to Shoals and Riders, and does not offer any advantages over Borborygmos; both are primarily weak to countermagic, both cost 3 (or sometimes 2 for Borb), and a Borb that lands but can't combo is still a threat that many decks cannot answer.
Incongruity is probably a better sideboard version of Pongify. Tougher mana, but much more use in the deck.
Despite Lightning Storm being Dispel-weak in a deck that wins with a sorcery, Lightning Storm still has advantages over Borborygmos Enraged: it's an instant that allows you the complete freedom to wait until the game forces your hand (by your opponent trying to boot Griselbrand, by your own Summoner's Pact trigger, by your opponent trying to OHKO you, by your opponent trying to resolve a hoser, etc.), it doesn't force you to put multiple Manamorphoses in your deck to support playing a second Neoform during the combo turn, and it doesn't take up 3-4 slots of uncastable non-cantrips in the deck. (The only way you can dodge Borbo taking up 3 slots at minimum for combo consistency purposes is to also put an alternate win condition in the deck, which kinda defeats the purpose of the Borbo plan. I did not like how often I could not combo off with only 2 Borbos in the deck.)
I suspect Pongify (or other bounce like Echoing Truth) is the better sideboard pick over Incubation // Incongruity: Pongify being cheaper definitely helps against Thalia, Guardian of Thraben. Heck, cheaper answers to hate bears prevents you from losing more of your life total to the fiends before comboing off.
If nobody else posts in the interim, I'll edit this post with my latest Allosaurus Grishoalbrand deck; I've hopped onto Lightning Storm as the win con precisely because of the above advantages, especially since delaying the Griselbrand draw part of the combo has worked out quite well in testing. UR Phoenix needs the counterspell to stop the combo or takes too long to boot Griselbrand, for example, allowing us to take our sweet time before comboing off. Since they run 4 Bolts and may run Gut Shot, I don't think comboing off straight away is completely advised--you run the risk of going too low during the combo turn and getting Bolted in response to a desperate Griselbrand Draw 7.
Manamorphose shouldn't be forced in anyway, it should be an autoinclude. As a free card it is incredibly important for making UG, not just for the second Neoform but for the first.
Lightning Storm only being a single slot is a downside in my mind. It puts the pressure onto finding this single copy during the combo, while simultaneously being utterly dead in hand pre-combo. Borborygmos is a good 4-of because it is useful in hand.
Lightning Storm being an instant seems like a fine advantage, but most of the time I think it's more valuable to just kill them before they have a chance to play any hate cards.
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I believe WoTC's new policy is to make sure that every color can enjoy the exciting gameplay mechanic of making undercosted dudes and then turning them sideways. Clearly the future of magic.
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I'm currently on 2 Lightning Storm because I'm too afraid of Thought-Knot Seer booting the first Lightning Storm and I do like the (possibly slight) consistency boost double win cons give to the combo turn. Sometimes, I end up being able to dig for only one Lightning Storm. I have been screwed over once by too many Lightning Storms and Simian Spirit Guides in hand pre-combo, though.
After testing builds with 2-mana cantrips, I'm convinced 1-mana cantrips are better because they're so much faster. While Opt isn't green, it does its part to help dig for the combo well. Deadshot Minotaur is a green 1-mana cantrip that can be paid for with SSG, and yes, I have ended up pitching this 5-cmc card to Nourishing Shoal once.
The jury is still out on Noxious Revival, but I do like how it makes me a bit less weak to targeted discard. BGx Midrange is still unpleasant to face because they have Turn 1 targeted discard too often andLiliana of the Veil's constant discard is game over because we cannot maintain enough green cards to pitch to Allosaurus Rider anymore. I don't know whether Leyline of Sanctity will fix this match-up as a result.
I am unconvinced that Chancellor of the Tangle really increases our chances of comboing off on Turn 1. This deck still has trouble digging for the combo if it doesn't mulligan into it, but I like the security of being able to dig for the combo, dig our way to Nourishing Shoals mid-combo, and dig for sideboard cards with cantrips instead.
Manamorphose shouldn't be forced in anyway, it should be an autoinclude. As a free card it is incredibly important for making UG, not just for the second Neoform but for the first.
Lightning Storm only being a single slot is a downside in my mind. It puts the pressure onto finding this single copy during the combo, while simultaneously being utterly dead in hand pre-combo. Borborygmos is a good 4-of because it is useful in hand.
Lightning Storm being an instant seems like a fine advantage, but most of the time I think it's more valuable to just kill them before they have a chance to play any hate cards.
I really don't think Manamorphose is an auto-include. It may make the combo turn more consistent by being free, but it costs a whopping 2 mana pre-combo. Yes, I have found that costing 2 mana slows down my ability to dig for the combo. I don't think I've ever used Manamorphose to cast the first Neoform.
As seen above, I'm currently running double Lightning Storm for consistency purposes and to hedge against Thought-Knot Seer. I do pitch the first Borborygmos Enraged to spells, but I don't like his inability to be cycled to dig for the combo. In my current Borbo build, I play only 3 Borbos and fill the fourth slot with a way to avoid losing in situations where all Borbos end up in hand (used to be See Beyond, now testing Jace, Wielder of Mysteries).
I have found that the extra mana available by waiting until I am about to lose to the Summoner's Pact trigger does increase the consistency of the combo turn. I commonly cast Opt and cycle Deadshot Minotaur to dig for Nourishing Shoal.
Don't forget that you can win in response to them pulling the trigger on hate cards with the Lightning Storm win con. This is especially valuable if their ways of eliminating Griselbrand are burn spells (e.g. Burn, UR Phoenix) and we just forced them to use them on Griselbrand instead of our life total. I personally find needing to wait to cheat out Borbo or a second Griselbrand a bit unpleasant in those situations, especially since they are incentivized to boot Griselbrand during their turn.
I don't know if it's needed, but Terastodon can deal with permanents like Leyline of Sanctity and Witchbane Orb, and it's a green fatty
I don't think Terastodon is needed as long as the Leyline and Witchbane decks don't have quick answers for a flying 7/7 with Lifelink. With that being said, Terastodon is probably a decent idea against Whir Prison and its love of Witchbane and Ensnaring Bridge...but so is sideboard artifact hate and bounce. Alternately, we can take tips from Ad Nauseam and maindeck a win con that doesn't target (Laboratory Maniac/Jace, Wielder of Mysteries).
Lightning Storm vs Borborygmos Enraged as the wincon: I prefer LS since you risk drawing into Borb and being unable to Neoform/Evolution into it. Also you don't need Manamorphose to cast LS off SSG. Finally LS is an instant, so you don't have to combo off immediately - sometimes a huge flying lifelinker that can't be killed by Bolt or Push is enough to win the game, as Bogles has shown - you can just attack repeatedly with Griselbrand until they force you to pull the trigger on combiong off. One good thing about this deck compared to Grishoalbrand is that your Griselbrand doesn't die at the end of the turn.
Temple of Mystery: There are two good reasons to play this card. One, it gives you some form of card selection in a deck that severely lacks it (Grishoalbrand is in a similar boat and plays the BR Temple). Two, it gives you extra lands to pitch to LS, which can be relevant if you fetch a lot, don't manage to draw your entire library, or if your opponent is casting Life from the Loam. You count these as spells, so 20 lands total is fine (not too much) when 16 of those are non-Temples.
Chancellor of the Tangle: This card is not necessary. If it's in your opener and you draw the nuts it's amazing, otherwise it's dead weight that can be replaced by any other green card.
Manamorphose: Also not necessary when your wincon is LS. I mean sure, it cycles, but unless you draw into the card that you need to combo off, what are you going to spend the mana that you just generated on? The other situation it's useful is when you already drew two SSGs and Wurm, and just Noxious Revivaled a Shoal on top, but that is situational.
Serum Visions: Do people ever learn that decks become much better when you cut the all-in stuff and play cantrips? First there was the old Amulet decks that had to choose between SSG and SV (the good lists went with SV), and then there were Phoenix decks that had to choose between blue for SV or staying in mono-red. Play this card, you're in Simic colors anyway.
Dissenter's Deliverance. This is basically a cantrip most of the time, but when the situation calls for it, it becomes a lock piece remover. Better than Opt since it's green.
I haven't thought too hard about the SB yet, but I definitely want Echoing Truth as a catch-all and either Guttural Response or Autumn's Veil (those are better than Pact because green) against counterspells. Maindeck Dissenter's Deliverance frees up space in the SB.
edit: going with Autumn's Veil to beat Dovin's Veto.
Chancellor is definitely optimal for this deck. Turn 1.5 is the crucial turn, so your opening hand is incredibly important. Chancellor allows explosive combos if you draw it, and a Shoal card if you don't. It can't be replaced with "any other green card" because gaining 2 life from Shoal by pitching your Neoform is not going to work out.
Manamorphose is less concretely optimal, but it is a free card that fixes mana. You should very rarely be cycling it without a Neoform or Evolution to fix the mana for, since you should be mulliganing to those instead of Manamorphoses.
The risk of drawing every copy of Borborygmos before you can fetch one is extremely low. Comparatively, the risk of not being able to draw Lightning Storm, because you couldn't chain Shoals or the card count of your deck was wrong, is more worrying to me.
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Chancellor is definitely optimal for this deck. Turn 1.5 is the crucial turn, so your opening hand is incredibly important. Chancellor allows explosive combos if you draw it, and a Shoal card if you don't. It can't be replaced with "any other green card" because gaining 2 life from Shoal by pitching your Neoform is not going to work out.
Manamorphose is less concretely optimal, but it is a free card that fixes mana. You should very rarely be cycling it without a Neoform or Evolution to fix the mana for, since you should be mulliganing to those instead of Manamorphoses.
The risk of drawing every copy of Borborygmos before you can fetch one is extremely low. Comparatively, the risk of not being able to draw Lightning Storm, because you couldn't chain Shoals or the card count of your deck was wrong, is more worrying to me.
I keep hands with only 1 combo piece all the time (even if keeping hands with only 1 combo piece and no cantrips often doesn't work out). Therefore, I bust cantrips quite often, including Manamorphose. (As a bit of an aside, this deck mulligans deceptively poorly because Allosaurus Rider demands green cards in hand.)
I've tested with a Borborygmos Enraged build, and with 3 Borbos in the deck, I still end up drawing all 3 Borbos before hitting Manamorphose + 2 Simian Spirit Guide + Neoform (or Manamorphose + 3 SSG + Eldritch Evolution) more than once every 10 games. This is high enough that I'm never playing a Borbo build without See Beyond or an alt win con. Yes, I've used See Beyond to shuffle the last Borbo back in at least 3 times in testing so far. The 2 Borbo build stranded me from cheating out Borbo so often that I reluctantly went up to 3 Borbos.
All these results were done with 3 Borbos and 3 Manamorphose in the deck; I find that Manamorphose is still too slow a cantrip pre-combo (Bound // Determined was also slug slow), and Borbo being unable to cantrip still gives me stomachaches, especially in longer games. I am very uncomfortable with 4 Borbo + 4 Manamorphose builds.
Especially with double Lightning Storm, I still haven't been stranded out of playing LS once I hit 6 or fewer cards in my library, and no matter which win con I pick, not drawing enough Nourishing Shoals mid-combo is still the combo killer. Due to LS being an instant, being able to delay the combo so I have more mana open also helps.
As an additional pro to playing Lightning Storm, you have a non-zero chance of killing opposing Meddling Mage on Allosaurus Rider in Game 1.
As an aside, I don't think any build needs more than 2 Autochthon Wurm; it doesn't cantrip, you need the consistency and the ability to dig for sideboard cards a lot more than you need AW #3, and you can easily Summoner's Pact for it mid-combo.
Lectrys said everything that I wanted to say. I want to stress that this is not a "mulligan to X and you win" deck (and in fact, no such deck exists other than Dredge in Vintage) because Rider costs two additional cards from hand.
Chancellor is great in the best-case scenario of you having everything you need in your opener except a second mana source. In that case, if it were a second land instead, you can still combo off the same, just on turn 2 instead of turn 1. When you're missing more than just a second mana source, Chancellor is terrible. Most lists are only playing four cantrips that they can spend the mana on. As for the argument that it pitches to Shoal, I rarely have issues pitching cards with high enough CMCs to Shoal, given 4 Wurms, 4 Pacts, and 3 Riders minus the one that was sacrificed. The hard part is drawing into Shoal itself.
Manamorphose is a free card only if you have something to spend the 2 mana that it generates on. If you don't, it costs you 2 mana to draw a card, making it worse than a simple cantrip like Dissenter's Deliverance. As for fixing mana for Neoform or Evolution, maybe the solution is to not put three basic Islands in your deck in the hopes of chasing turn 1 Chancellor pipe dreams. Most lists are sensibly playing at most two nonblue sources (which restricts the combinations of lands that can't cast Neoform to just 1) and one nongreen source (which means Evolution is always castable on any 3 lands).
Right now there's some 5-0ing lists in MTGO that are running Laboratory Maniac, what do you guys think of it?
I think those builds are stuck with Lab Man because they run only 15 lands, so supporting Lightning Storm or Seismic Assault might get a little tricky.
This deck is absolutely a "mulligan to X and win" deck. And saying that the only such deck is Vintage Dredge means you don't understand what constitutes such a deck.
The strength of this deck is the ability to kill quickly; if you aren't pushing to win on Turn 1 or 2, you're just another combo deck that most of Modern can interact with powerfully. With 8 copies of each piece, what needs to be maximized is card functionality overlap so that the secondary pieces are easier to assemble and narrow hate is easier to sidestep. Chancellor is mana AND a green card. Borborygmos is a wincon AND a Neoform target AND a Shoal pitch. Wurm is only a Shoal/Rider pitch and is completely dead otherwise. Dryad Arbor is painfully slow, but allows for Turn 2 wins while maximizing pitch count without entirely sacrificing a usable manabase. In my list, the odds of missing your 2 green cards for Rider are 0.82%. In yours, it's 12.2%. When one (or both) of those cards is a Chancellor, my hand can combo off and yours can't, even if I can't do it turn 1 with the Chancellor mana.
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Sure, this deck is a mulligan to X and win deck. How about this, you start the game on a mull to 0, I'll give you a free Demonic Tutor for any card in your deck, and you try to win the game from there. No deck other than Vintage Dredge has this extreme of a gameplan.
The proper way to build a combo deck, especially one that plays blue, is with cantrips. Hundreds of successful combo decks over the years have done this, and by the wayside are thousands more unsuccessful ones that died because they couldn't or wouldn't. Cantrips (in this case Serum Visions) vastly increase the range of keepable hands - any hand that's 1 card away from comboing off and has a castable cantrip in it is pretty much always a keep. If you don't play cantrips, then you're gambling on
1) the card that you played in place of the cantrip being the 1 card that you need to combo off (here's a hint: if the card you need is Rider, Pact, Neoform or Evolution, it will never be, otherwise we'd already be playing more of those), or
2) the next X cards of your library having what you need, where X is the amount of draw steps you have before your opponent kills you (instead of the next X cards with a scry 2 thrown in), or
3) mulliganing the hand in the hope of improving it (and given the initial hand was 1 card away, your mulligan has to be 0 cards away for it to be considered an improvement).
Wurm does one job, but it does it well. It does in one Shoal what Rider, Chancellor or Borborygmos would take two to accomplish. Given that there are only four Shoals in the deck, that's a huge deal, especially when a Shoal might have been consumed to cheat out Rider. Again, finding stuff to pitch to Shoal is never the problem, finding Shoal itself is, and when you make one Shoal count for two, you have a lot more room to find the next one.
Playing Dryad Arbor is just begging to lose more game 1s by opening yourself up to Bolt or Push, cards which normally wouldn't stop a Arbor-less build. This is all rather ironic given that you start your second paragraph espousing the ideal of not letting your opponent interact with you.
In my list, the odds of missing your 2 green cards for Rider are 0.82%. In yours, it's 12.2%.
These numbers are pointless without specifying who starts the game on the play, what turn the 2 other green cards have to be gotten by, and any other practical considerations that are ignored in pursuit of them (such as mulligans, number of lands, presence of Neoform/Evolution in hand, and cantrips). Ignoring all practical considerations, I can guarantee a 100% rate of cheating Rider out when I draw it by playing a deck with 56 other green cards. That is how useless numbers are without the fine print.
I was looking for the thread for this deck. I almost made my own thread. I think we need to clarify that Keanu Reeves is a Neoform. deck. Anyways, I played the deck at a 15 person FNM - lowest one I've seen for Modern in 3 years. I feel like FNM is dwindling because Modern kind of sucks right now. I don't know if it's just me; maybe I need a break? But Modern seems pretty bad right now. Anywho, on to the results!
Round 1 vs. UW Spirits. The guy hasn't come in a while, but I know he's been playing. He always plays something interactive. I think this is the least interactive deck I've seen him play. We both mull, but he is at 3 mana, so I go for it before he has Cryptic Command mana next turn (I didn't know he was Spirits at the time). He does Spell Queller and I can't pay my Summoner's Pact next turn. In the next game, I turn 1 beat him before he can play a single card. In the final game, he mulls to 6. He does Island and Serum Visions. When I saw that land tap, I was hoping for a single Green card to go off. Yep, got a Manamorphose and went off on turn 1 again. 2-1.
Round 2 vs. Hardened Scales. The player finished 3-1, beating the UW Spirits player in the final round of this tournament. He usually does pretty well, but hasn't played at our spot in a while. In the first game, he does for Steel Overseer, then Mox Opal and Ancient Stirrings. I put out a Griselbrand and ride that easily to victory next turn. I leave it in play and then go for it next turn after a swing. In the next game, he mulls to 3. Haven't seen that in a while. I had a somewhat soft hand, but it had 2 Nature's Claim, so I kept it. Finally found a land and killed him after his only land, Forest, cast a Hardened Scales. 2-0.
Round 3 vs. Little Kid Abzan w/ Gaddock Teeg and Thalia, Guardian. He made the deck to NOT fold to Tron the way Little Kid normally does. It still has a rough matchup, but ways to win. Previous to him running Esper Control last week, he had won 3 FNMs in a row. He does turn 2 Anafenza, the Foremost and then I kill him on my turn 2. Needed to find a land in the first 2 draw steps or Simian Spirit Guide. Got the Guide on turn 2 and Manamorphose to get Neoform mana. In the next game, he does turn 2 Thalia into turn 3 Gaddock Teeg and I can't find Pongify to go off a little bit. In the final game, I go off, but can't find the win. But I put Allosaurus Rider into play and have an 8/8 Griselbrand. I eventually get there as he floods the board, but on turn 7, I have 7 lands in play with Griselbrand, triple Allosaurus Riders, and a Laboratory Maniac with 8 cards left in deck. Barely got there. 2-1.
Round 4 vs. Humans. I loaned this deck to a friend, so we ID'd. Thank god. I tested this to be Neoform's worst matchup, followed closely by Grixis Shadow. 0-0-3.
Finish 3-0-1. It was a sweet deck for today and drew well. Not so sure how consistent it is though. We'll have to see.
*P.S. - I found out the reason that you run Dissenter's Deliverance rather than Nature's Claim. You can cycle it when you don't need it and that's suuuper important for a deck like this. Nature's Claim has probably led to more victories for me than any other single Modern card since 2012, so I'm a bit biased towards that card, lol. Dumb mistake though when I had 2 Nature's Claim in hand during the Round 3, Game 2 loss after siding in 2 Nature's Claim for potential Grafdigger's Cage or whatever (turned out he had Worship), but couldn't find the 2 Pongify or Rapid Hybridization. 4 Pact of Negation is probably NOT needed either, but I don't know what else to put. Suggestions?...
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
I'm leaning more and more on slaughter pact than on pact of negation. I love PoN, but there is more and more cases when i would prefer something else, even if this something cost 1 mana rather than 0.
I disagree with Samut's Sprint (it's not green and it doesn't cantrip or tutor for a combo piece), but this does resemble the latest MTGO lists: it plays 4 Chancellor of the Tangle and 15 lands, and it has 2 win cons, one of which is Lightning Storm. Perhaps this deck really does need the speed boost at the expense of keepable hands?
This list resembles the first paper result, including Samut's Sprint and Chancellor of the Tangle. The sideboard has hilarious alt win cons, though.
In the meantime, it looks like all we get so far from Modern Horizons is Waterlogged Grove (heck yeah, a cantrip land!) and more hate headed our way (so our opponents can tap out for planeswalkers and hold up Force of Negation, so now we have to be even more cautious).
This list has the lowest land total yet, Lab Man instead of Lightning Storm as a result, and some creative mana-free cantrips and spicy 1-ofs. Safewright Quest looks nifty as a way to mitigate subpar Chancellor hands.
The manabase in that last one looks atrocious. There's no reason for gold lands, nothing in the 75 requires it. Unless you're just super, super worried about being able to hardcast your Leylines???
Still very sure that Borborygmos is the best wincon. A miser Lightning Storm means that not drawing it is a real danger, a Storm pre-combo is a dead card in hand, and Borborygmos is useful at every point of the game, as a pitch card, wincon, and straight up chain target without even trying to go off with Griselbrand.
Mathematically, Wurm is not better than any green 9cmc, although since the combo chains off so reliably it's not going to come up in any of these tournament results. Zacama seems best to be as a backup Chain option and Wurm stand-in. +9 life gets you to 29 total allowing 4 Griselbrand activations, +15 life puts you at 35 which still only allows 4 activations because it leaves you at exactly 7. Again though, by the time you draw 28 cards, you will usually be able to keep going indefinitely.
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The manabase in that last one looks atrocious. There's no reason for gold lands, nothing in the 75 requires it. Unless you're just super, super worried about being able to hardcast your Leylines???
Still very sure that Borborygmos is the best wincon. A miser Lightning Storm means that not drawing it is a real danger, a Storm pre-combo is a dead card in hand, and Borborygmos is useful at every point of the game, as a pitch card, wincon, and straight up chain target without even trying to go off with Griselbrand.
Mathematically, Wurm is not better than any green 9cmc, although since the combo chains off so reliably it's not going to come up in any of these tournament results. Zacama seems best to be as a backup Chain option and Wurm stand-in. +9 life gets you to 29 total allowing 4 Griselbrand activations, +15 life puts you at 35 which still only allows 4 activations because it leaves you at exactly 7. Again though, by the time you draw 28 cards, you will usually be able to keep going indefinitely.
I like Gemstone Mine in this deck, though. It gives me an easier time casting Lightning Storm, especially on low life totals.
After testing a bunch of win cons, I'm still convinced that Lightning Storm is the best one. Borborygmos Enraged forces me to warp my deck to support it (although it looks like Manamorphose is a staple), and with 3 Borbos in the deck, I've drawn them all before I can cheat one out so, so many times. I can't leave home with a Borbo build without at least one See Beyond or alt win con, and if I'm playing an alt win con, I may as well switch to Lightning Storm and have greater confidence that I can combo off when my opponent forces my hand or I am about to lose to my own Pact trigger(s) so I have more mana and maybe life to combo off with. While I do play 2 Lightning Storm, I've hit 0 cards in my library surprisingly many times, and I've had far fewer problems not hitting Lightning Storm than hitting all the Borbos before I can cheat one out.
Regarding Autochthon Wurm vs. any other green fatty, keep in mind that we sometimes need to combo off from fairly low life totals. In that case, the guaranteed 2 Griselbrand activations from pitching the A. Wurm is awesome, and it's well worth burning up a Summoner's Pact for.
These ones are also on the extremely land-light configuration. I guess Life Goes On is OK as a 5th Nourishing Shoal when you're counting on comboing off the turn you cheat out Griselbrand.
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The bad news: I have lately seen more Rest in Peace maindeck (typically in UW Control lists on MTGO) than Leyline of Sanctity.
I often don't even go all-in on the OHKO combo in Game 1, anyway (if I didn't Summoner's Pact for Allosaurus Rider, I'm having success with holding back on using Griselbrand's ability until they try to boot him or kill me).
At this point, I'm starting to wonder whether Lightning Storm is the best win con; as an instant, you can importantly win with Lightning Storm with the Summoner's Pact lose-the-game trigger on the stack. This means you can delay your OHKO even further until you have more resources available.
It's possible that this comes at a consistency cost, though; while you can load up on stronger dig like Opt, Incubation // Incongruity, and Deadshot Minotaur instead of the Borborygmos Enraged combo's Manamorphose and See Beyond, Lightning Storm isn't green, and you may need two win cons to dodge Thought-Knot Seer. It's also possible that you may need to dig further into your deck on average to win with Lightning Storm than cheating out Borbo.
I already found a noticeably worse ability to dig for the combo with the BUG build with Soul Spike, even though I made Bound // Determined a 4-of in it. I believe it is because of the worse cantrips and the 4 additional non-green cards that don't cantrip.
It's possible that Borbo lists should still maindeck an alternate win con instead of the consistency crutch See Beyond; while See Beyond can also shuffle the last Griselbrand back into your deck, it cannot win the game for you. Both Laboratory Maniac and Jace, Wielder of Mysteries play nice with the mandatory Manamorphose in Borbo builds, neither of them target opponents in order to win the game, Lab Man can block and even attack, and Jace W can draw cards in passive match-ups, but man is Lab Man weak to removal (kill him with a Griselbrand draw trigger on the stack). It's also quite tempting to cast See Beyond to dig into the combo.
// 60 Maindeck
// 17 Creature
4 Allosaurus Rider
2 Griselbrand
4 Autochthon Wurm
4 Simian Spirit Guide
3 Chancellor of the Tangle
// 13 Instant
4 Summoner's Pact
4 Nourishing Shoal
1 Lightning Storm
1 Noxious Revival
3 Manamorphose
2 Breeding Pool
4 Temple of Mystery
4 Misty Rainforest
4 Botanical Sanctum
3 Gemstone Mine
1 Stomping Ground
1 Snow-Covered Forest
4 Eldritch Evolution
3 Serum Visions
4 Neoform
// 15 Sideboard
// 4 Artifact
SB: 4 Chalice of the Void
// 11 Instant
SB: 4 Pact of Negation
SB: 3 Pongify
SB: 4 Nature's Claim
Very streamlined and just trying to win on t1-2 as often as possible. Temple of Mystery seems clunky but helps dig for the t2 kill; Grishoalbrand does the exact same thing. Otherwise we don't have many t1 plays anyway if they aren't insta-dead, and I'm concerned that a lot of builds don't have enough card selection that can find Evolution or Neoform.
Noxious Revival is the 5th Nourishing Shoal, and also makes me comfortable running only one Lightning Storm - if it gets Thoughtseized, just Noxious it back midcombo. Between Autochthons and effectively 5 Shoals, digging all the way to the bottom of the deck is not difficult.
I'll take the opportunity to talk about something no one else seems to have mentioned. Pacting for big creatures to pitch to Shoal midcombo is sometimes excellent and sometimes bad. Basically, you want to wind up with a deck size that is a multiple of 7 so that you can draw the whole thing and 100% find 3x Simian + Lightning Storm. So if you've got 21 or 35 cards left to draw, don't Pact! If you've got 20 or 34 cards left (or the like), you can probably fix it with Noxious Revival. If you've got 22, 23, 24 or 36, 37, 38 cards left, Pact away.
SB talk: 4x Chalice for when it wins; 4x U Pact versus permission decks; 4x Nature's Claim versus Cage and Leyline, and 3x Pongify for decks with annoying creatures (such as Eidolon of Rhetoric, Leonin Arbiter, Meddling Mage, Gaddock Teeg, and others).
Incongruity is probably a better sideboard version of Pongify. Tougher mana, but much more use in the deck.
Any more of this, and Team Troll will be more than just a name.
I know where you post.
Despite Lightning Storm being Dispel-weak in a deck that wins with a sorcery, Lightning Storm still has advantages over Borborygmos Enraged: it's an instant that allows you the complete freedom to wait until the game forces your hand (by your opponent trying to boot Griselbrand, by your own Summoner's Pact trigger, by your opponent trying to OHKO you, by your opponent trying to resolve a hoser, etc.), it doesn't force you to put multiple Manamorphoses in your deck to support playing a second Neoform during the combo turn, and it doesn't take up 3-4 slots of uncastable non-cantrips in the deck. (The only way you can dodge Borbo taking up 3 slots at minimum for combo consistency purposes is to also put an alternate win condition in the deck, which kinda defeats the purpose of the Borbo plan. I did not like how often I could not combo off with only 2 Borbos in the deck.)
I suspect Pongify (or other bounce like Echoing Truth) is the better sideboard pick over Incubation // Incongruity: Pongify being cheaper definitely helps against Thalia, Guardian of Thraben. Heck, cheaper answers to hate bears prevents you from losing more of your life total to the fiends before comboing off.
If nobody else posts in the interim, I'll edit this post with my latest Allosaurus Grishoalbrand deck; I've hopped onto Lightning Storm as the win con precisely because of the above advantages, especially since delaying the Griselbrand draw part of the combo has worked out quite well in testing. UR Phoenix needs the counterspell to stop the combo or takes too long to boot Griselbrand, for example, allowing us to take our sweet time before comboing off. Since they run 4 Bolts and may run Gut Shot, I don't think comboing off straight away is completely advised--you run the risk of going too low during the combo turn and getting Bolted in response to a desperate Griselbrand Draw 7.
Lightning Storm only being a single slot is a downside in my mind. It puts the pressure onto finding this single copy during the combo, while simultaneously being utterly dead in hand pre-combo. Borborygmos is a good 4-of because it is useful in hand.
Lightning Storm being an instant seems like a fine advantage, but most of the time I think it's more valuable to just kill them before they have a chance to play any hate cards.
Any more of this, and Team Troll will be more than just a name.
I know where you post.
4 Botanical Sanctum
2 Temple of Mystery
4 Gemstone Mine
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Breeding Pool
1 Forest
1 Island
Creatures
4 Allosaurus Rider
2 Griselbrand
2 Autochthon Wurm
4 Simian Spirit Guide
1 Wild Cantor
2 Deadshot Minotaur
4 Neoform
4 Eldritch Evolution
4 Summoner's Pact
2 Lightning Storm
4 Nourishing Shoal
4 Serum Visions
4 Opt
1 Noxious Revival
4 Chalice of the Void
1 Relic of Progenitus
2 Echoing Truth
2 Nature's Claim
2 Spell Pierce
2 Gigadrowse
1 Guttural Response
1 Dispel
I'm currently on 2 Lightning Storm because I'm too afraid of Thought-Knot Seer booting the first Lightning Storm and I do like the (possibly slight) consistency boost double win cons give to the combo turn. Sometimes, I end up being able to dig for only one Lightning Storm. I have been screwed over once by too many Lightning Storms and Simian Spirit Guides in hand pre-combo, though.
After testing builds with 2-mana cantrips, I'm convinced 1-mana cantrips are better because they're so much faster. While Opt isn't green, it does its part to help dig for the combo well. Deadshot Minotaur is a green 1-mana cantrip that can be paid for with SSG, and yes, I have ended up pitching this 5-cmc card to Nourishing Shoal once.
The jury is still out on Noxious Revival, but I do like how it makes me a bit less weak to targeted discard. BGx Midrange is still unpleasant to face because they have Turn 1 targeted discard too often and Liliana of the Veil's constant discard is game over because we cannot maintain enough green cards to pitch to Allosaurus Rider anymore. I don't know whether Leyline of Sanctity will fix this match-up as a result.
I am unconvinced that Chancellor of the Tangle really increases our chances of comboing off on Turn 1. This deck still has trouble digging for the combo if it doesn't mulligan into it, but I like the security of being able to dig for the combo, dig our way to Nourishing Shoals mid-combo, and dig for sideboard cards with cantrips instead.
I really don't think Manamorphose is an auto-include. It may make the combo turn more consistent by being free, but it costs a whopping 2 mana pre-combo. Yes, I have found that costing 2 mana slows down my ability to dig for the combo. I don't think I've ever used Manamorphose to cast the first Neoform.
As seen above, I'm currently running double Lightning Storm for consistency purposes and to hedge against Thought-Knot Seer. I do pitch the first Borborygmos Enraged to spells, but I don't like his inability to be cycled to dig for the combo. In my current Borbo build, I play only 3 Borbos and fill the fourth slot with a way to avoid losing in situations where all Borbos end up in hand (used to be See Beyond, now testing Jace, Wielder of Mysteries).
I have found that the extra mana available by waiting until I am about to lose to the Summoner's Pact trigger does increase the consistency of the combo turn. I commonly cast Opt and cycle Deadshot Minotaur to dig for Nourishing Shoal.
Don't forget that you can win in response to them pulling the trigger on hate cards with the Lightning Storm win con. This is especially valuable if their ways of eliminating Griselbrand are burn spells (e.g. Burn, UR Phoenix) and we just forced them to use them on Griselbrand instead of our life total. I personally find needing to wait to cheat out Borbo or a second Griselbrand a bit unpleasant in those situations, especially since they are incentivized to boot Griselbrand during their turn.
I don't think Terastodon is needed as long as the Leyline and Witchbane decks don't have quick answers for a flying 7/7 with Lifelink. With that being said, Terastodon is probably a decent idea against Whir Prison and its love of Witchbane and Ensnaring Bridge...but so is sideboard artifact hate and bounce. Alternately, we can take tips from Ad Nauseam and maindeck a win con that doesn't target (Laboratory Maniac/Jace, Wielder of Mysteries).
4 Temple of Mystery
4 Botanical Sanctum
4 Misty Rainforest
3 Verdant Catacombs
2 Breeding Pool
2 Forest
1 Island
4 Allosaurus Rider
4 Summoner's Pact
4 Neoform
4 Eldritch Evolution
2 Griselbrand
4 Nourishing Shoal
4 Autochthon Wurm
4 Simian Spirit Guide
1 Lightning Storm
1 Noxious Revival
Cantrips
4 Serum Visions
4 Dissenter's Deliverance
edit: going with Autumn's Veil to beat Dovin's Veto.
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
Manamorphose is less concretely optimal, but it is a free card that fixes mana. You should very rarely be cycling it without a Neoform or Evolution to fix the mana for, since you should be mulliganing to those instead of Manamorphoses.
The risk of drawing every copy of Borborygmos before you can fetch one is extremely low. Comparatively, the risk of not being able to draw Lightning Storm, because you couldn't chain Shoals or the card count of your deck was wrong, is more worrying to me.
Any more of this, and Team Troll will be more than just a name.
I know where you post.
I keep hands with only 1 combo piece all the time (even if keeping hands with only 1 combo piece and no cantrips often doesn't work out). Therefore, I bust cantrips quite often, including Manamorphose. (As a bit of an aside, this deck mulligans deceptively poorly because Allosaurus Rider demands green cards in hand.)
I've tested with a Borborygmos Enraged build, and with 3 Borbos in the deck, I still end up drawing all 3 Borbos before hitting Manamorphose + 2 Simian Spirit Guide + Neoform (or Manamorphose + 3 SSG + Eldritch Evolution) more than once every 10 games. This is high enough that I'm never playing a Borbo build without See Beyond or an alt win con. Yes, I've used See Beyond to shuffle the last Borbo back in at least 3 times in testing so far. The 2 Borbo build stranded me from cheating out Borbo so often that I reluctantly went up to 3 Borbos.
All these results were done with 3 Borbos and 3 Manamorphose in the deck; I find that Manamorphose is still too slow a cantrip pre-combo (Bound // Determined was also slug slow), and Borbo being unable to cantrip still gives me stomachaches, especially in longer games. I am very uncomfortable with 4 Borbo + 4 Manamorphose builds.
Especially with double Lightning Storm, I still haven't been stranded out of playing LS once I hit 6 or fewer cards in my library, and no matter which win con I pick, not drawing enough Nourishing Shoals mid-combo is still the combo killer. Due to LS being an instant, being able to delay the combo so I have more mana open also helps.
As an additional pro to playing Lightning Storm, you have a non-zero chance of killing opposing Meddling Mage on Allosaurus Rider in Game 1.
As an aside, I don't think any build needs more than 2 Autochthon Wurm; it doesn't cantrip, you need the consistency and the ability to dig for sideboard cards a lot more than you need AW #3, and you can easily Summoner's Pact for it mid-combo.
Chancellor is great in the best-case scenario of you having everything you need in your opener except a second mana source. In that case, if it were a second land instead, you can still combo off the same, just on turn 2 instead of turn 1. When you're missing more than just a second mana source, Chancellor is terrible. Most lists are only playing four cantrips that they can spend the mana on. As for the argument that it pitches to Shoal, I rarely have issues pitching cards with high enough CMCs to Shoal, given 4 Wurms, 4 Pacts, and 3 Riders minus the one that was sacrificed. The hard part is drawing into Shoal itself.
Manamorphose is a free card only if you have something to spend the 2 mana that it generates on. If you don't, it costs you 2 mana to draw a card, making it worse than a simple cantrip like Dissenter's Deliverance. As for fixing mana for Neoform or Evolution, maybe the solution is to not put three basic Islands in your deck in the hopes of chasing turn 1 Chancellor pipe dreams. Most lists are sensibly playing at most two nonblue sources (which restricts the combinations of lands that can't cast Neoform to just 1) and one nongreen source (which means Evolution is always castable on any 3 lands).
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
We have a 100+ person Discord entirely devoted to the deck for anyone interested
I think those builds are stuck with Lab Man because they run only 15 lands, so supporting Lightning Storm or Seismic Assault might get a little tricky.
The strength of this deck is the ability to kill quickly; if you aren't pushing to win on Turn 1 or 2, you're just another combo deck that most of Modern can interact with powerfully. With 8 copies of each piece, what needs to be maximized is card functionality overlap so that the secondary pieces are easier to assemble and narrow hate is easier to sidestep. Chancellor is mana AND a green card. Borborygmos is a wincon AND a Neoform target AND a Shoal pitch. Wurm is only a Shoal/Rider pitch and is completely dead otherwise. Dryad Arbor is painfully slow, but allows for Turn 2 wins while maximizing pitch count without entirely sacrificing a usable manabase. In my list, the odds of missing your 2 green cards for Rider are 0.82%. In yours, it's 12.2%. When one (or both) of those cards is a Chancellor, my hand can combo off and yours can't, even if I can't do it turn 1 with the Chancellor mana.
Any more of this, and Team Troll will be more than just a name.
I know where you post.
The proper way to build a combo deck, especially one that plays blue, is with cantrips. Hundreds of successful combo decks over the years have done this, and by the wayside are thousands more unsuccessful ones that died because they couldn't or wouldn't. Cantrips (in this case Serum Visions) vastly increase the range of keepable hands - any hand that's 1 card away from comboing off and has a castable cantrip in it is pretty much always a keep. If you don't play cantrips, then you're gambling on
1) the card that you played in place of the cantrip being the 1 card that you need to combo off (here's a hint: if the card you need is Rider, Pact, Neoform or Evolution, it will never be, otherwise we'd already be playing more of those), or
2) the next X cards of your library having what you need, where X is the amount of draw steps you have before your opponent kills you (instead of the next X cards with a scry 2 thrown in), or
3) mulliganing the hand in the hope of improving it (and given the initial hand was 1 card away, your mulligan has to be 0 cards away for it to be considered an improvement).
Wurm does one job, but it does it well. It does in one Shoal what Rider, Chancellor or Borborygmos would take two to accomplish. Given that there are only four Shoals in the deck, that's a huge deal, especially when a Shoal might have been consumed to cheat out Rider. Again, finding stuff to pitch to Shoal is never the problem, finding Shoal itself is, and when you make one Shoal count for two, you have a lot more room to find the next one.
Playing Dryad Arbor is just begging to lose more game 1s by opening yourself up to Bolt or Push, cards which normally wouldn't stop a Arbor-less build. This is all rather ironic given that you start your second paragraph espousing the ideal of not letting your opponent interact with you.
These numbers are pointless without specifying who starts the game on the play, what turn the 2 other green cards have to be gotten by, and any other practical considerations that are ignored in pursuit of them (such as mulligans, number of lands, presence of Neoform/Evolution in hand, and cantrips). Ignoring all practical considerations, I can guarantee a 100% rate of cheating Rider out when I draw it by playing a deck with 56 other green cards. That is how useless numbers are without the fine print.
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
Round 1 vs. UW Spirits. The guy hasn't come in a while, but I know he's been playing. He always plays something interactive. I think this is the least interactive deck I've seen him play. We both mull, but he is at 3 mana, so I go for it before he has Cryptic Command mana next turn (I didn't know he was Spirits at the time). He does Spell Queller and I can't pay my Summoner's Pact next turn. In the next game, I turn 1 beat him before he can play a single card. In the final game, he mulls to 6. He does Island and Serum Visions. When I saw that land tap, I was hoping for a single Green card to go off. Yep, got a Manamorphose and went off on turn 1 again. 2-1.
Round 2 vs. Hardened Scales. The player finished 3-1, beating the UW Spirits player in the final round of this tournament. He usually does pretty well, but hasn't played at our spot in a while. In the first game, he does for Steel Overseer, then Mox Opal and Ancient Stirrings. I put out a Griselbrand and ride that easily to victory next turn. I leave it in play and then go for it next turn after a swing. In the next game, he mulls to 3. Haven't seen that in a while. I had a somewhat soft hand, but it had 2 Nature's Claim, so I kept it. Finally found a land and killed him after his only land, Forest, cast a Hardened Scales. 2-0.
Round 3 vs. Little Kid Abzan w/ Gaddock Teeg and Thalia, Guardian. He made the deck to NOT fold to Tron the way Little Kid normally does. It still has a rough matchup, but ways to win. Previous to him running Esper Control last week, he had won 3 FNMs in a row. He does turn 2 Anafenza, the Foremost and then I kill him on my turn 2. Needed to find a land in the first 2 draw steps or Simian Spirit Guide. Got the Guide on turn 2 and Manamorphose to get Neoform mana. In the next game, he does turn 2 Thalia into turn 3 Gaddock Teeg and I can't find Pongify to go off a little bit. In the final game, I go off, but can't find the win. But I put Allosaurus Rider into play and have an 8/8 Griselbrand. I eventually get there as he floods the board, but on turn 7, I have 7 lands in play with Griselbrand, triple Allosaurus Riders, and a Laboratory Maniac with 8 cards left in deck. Barely got there. 2-1.
Round 4 vs. Humans. I loaned this deck to a friend, so we ID'd. Thank god. I tested this to be Neoform's worst matchup, followed closely by Grixis Shadow. 0-0-3.
Finish 3-0-1. It was a sweet deck for today and drew well. Not so sure how consistent it is though. We'll have to see.
*P.S. - I found out the reason that you run Dissenter's Deliverance rather than Nature's Claim. You can cycle it when you don't need it and that's suuuper important for a deck like this. Nature's Claim has probably led to more victories for me than any other single Modern card since 2012, so I'm a bit biased towards that card, lol. Dumb mistake though when I had 2 Nature's Claim in hand during the Round 3, Game 2 loss after siding in 2 Nature's Claim for potential Grafdigger's Cage or whatever (turned out he had Worship), but couldn't find the 2 Pongify or Rapid Hybridization. 4 Pact of Negation is probably NOT needed either, but I don't know what else to put. Suggestions?...
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Well atm i'm trying this list:
You got it i'm trying to not play any cantrips as i hate that (wildly prefer tutors)
1 Island
4 Botanical Sanctum
2 Breeding Pool
4 Gemstone Mine
4 Yavimaya Coast
Creatures
4 Allosaurus Rider
2 Autochthon Wurm
4 Chancellor of the Tangle
1 Laboratory Maniac
4 Simian Spirit Guide
1 Wild Cantor
2 Griselbrand
3 Dissenter's Deliverance
1 Lightning Storm
4 Manamorphose
4 Nourishing Shoal
1 Noxious Revival
1 Pact of Negation
1 Samut's Sprint
4 Summoner's Pact
4 Eldritch Evolution
4 Neoform
3 Chalice of the Void
1 Defense Grid
1 Engineered Explosives
4 Leyline of Sanctity
1 Dispel
1 Echoing Truth
2 Nature's Claim
2 Spell Pierce
I disagree with Samut's Sprint (it's not green and it doesn't cantrip or tutor for a combo piece), but this does resemble the latest MTGO lists: it plays 4 Chancellor of the Tangle and 15 lands, and it has 2 win cons, one of which is Lightning Storm. Perhaps this deck really does need the speed boost at the expense of keepable hands?
1 Snow-Covered Forest
1 Snow-Covered Island
2 Breeding Pool
3 Yavimaya Coast
4 Botanical Sanctum
4 Gemstone Mine
Creatures
1 Laboratory Maniac
1 Wild Cantor
2 Griselbrand
3 Autochthon Wurm
3 Chancellor of the Tangle
4 Allosaurus Rider
4 Simian Spirit Guide
1 Desperate Ritual
1 Lightning Storm
1 Noxious Revival
1 Pact of Negation
1 Samut's Sprint
2 Manamorphose
4 Nourishing Shoal
4 Summoner's Pact
4 Eldritch Evolution
4 Neoform
4 Serum Visions
2 Engineered Explosives
4 Voracious Wurm
3 Leyline of Sanctity
1 Dissenter's Deliverance
1 Echoing Truth
2 Mindbreak Trap
1 Nature's Claim
1 Spell Pierce
This list resembles the first paper result, including Samut's Sprint and Chancellor of the Tangle. The sideboard has hilarious alt win cons, though.
In the meantime, it looks like all we get so far from Modern Horizons is Waterlogged Grove (heck yeah, a cantrip land!) and more hate headed our way (so our opponents can tap out for planeswalkers and hold up Force of Negation, so now we have to be even more cautious).
EDIT: Our 3rd paper result!
1 Island
2 Breeding Pool
2 Scalding Tarn
3 Flooded Strand
4 Botanical Sanctum
4 Gemstone Mine
Creatures
1 Wild Cantor
2 Autochthon Wurm
2 Griselbrand
4 Allosaurus Rider
4 Chancellor of the Tangle
4 Simian Spirit Guide
1 Lightning Storm
1 Samut's Sprint
2 Manamorphose
2 Noxious Revival
4 Nourishing Shoal
4 Summoner's Pact
1 Sleight of Hand
4 Eldritch Evolution
4 Neoform
4 Serum Visions
3 Chalice of the Void
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Laboratory Maniac
1 Dissenter's Deliverance
1 Echoing Truth
1 Nature's Claim
3 Pact of Negation
1 Pongify
1 Slaughter Pact
2 Spell Pierce
I still don't approve of Samut's Sprint, but I think paper lists are starting to stabilize!
1 Island
4 Botanical Sanctum
2 Breeding Pool
4 Gemstone Mine
2 Yavimaya Coast
Creatures
4 Allosaurus Rider
2 Autochthon Wurm
4 Chancellor of the Tangle
2 Griselbrand
1 Laboratory Maniac
4 Simian Spirit Guide
1 Street Wraith
1 Wild Cantor
1 Edge of Autumn
4 Eldritch Evolution
4 Neoform
1 Safewright Quest
4 Serum Visions
1 Life Goes On
4 Manamorphose
4 Nourishing Shoal
1 Pact of Negation
4 Summoner's Pact
3 Pact of Negation
4 Leyline of Sanctity
4 Oxidize
4 Slaughter Pact
This list has the lowest land total yet, Lab Man instead of Lightning Storm as a result, and some creative mana-free cantrips and spicy 1-ofs. Safewright Quest looks nifty as a way to mitigate subpar Chancellor hands.
Still very sure that Borborygmos is the best wincon. A miser Lightning Storm means that not drawing it is a real danger, a Storm pre-combo is a dead card in hand, and Borborygmos is useful at every point of the game, as a pitch card, wincon, and straight up chain target without even trying to go off with Griselbrand.
Mathematically, Wurm is not better than any green 9cmc, although since the combo chains off so reliably it's not going to come up in any of these tournament results. Zacama seems best to be as a backup Chain option and Wurm stand-in. +9 life gets you to 29 total allowing 4 Griselbrand activations, +15 life puts you at 35 which still only allows 4 activations because it leaves you at exactly 7. Again though, by the time you draw 28 cards, you will usually be able to keep going indefinitely.
Any more of this, and Team Troll will be more than just a name.
I know where you post.
I like Gemstone Mine in this deck, though. It gives me an easier time casting Lightning Storm, especially on low life totals.
After testing a bunch of win cons, I'm still convinced that Lightning Storm is the best one. Borborygmos Enraged forces me to warp my deck to support it (although it looks like Manamorphose is a staple), and with 3 Borbos in the deck, I've drawn them all before I can cheat one out so, so many times. I can't leave home with a Borbo build without at least one See Beyond or alt win con, and if I'm playing an alt win con, I may as well switch to Lightning Storm and have greater confidence that I can combo off when my opponent forces my hand or I am about to lose to my own Pact trigger(s) so I have more mana and maybe life to combo off with. While I do play 2 Lightning Storm, I've hit 0 cards in my library surprisingly many times, and I've had far fewer problems not hitting Lightning Storm than hitting all the Borbos before I can cheat one out.
Regarding Autochthon Wurm vs. any other green fatty, keep in mind that we sometimes need to combo off from fairly low life totals. In that case, the guaranteed 2 Griselbrand activations from pitching the A. Wurm is awesome, and it's well worth burning up a Summoner's Pact for.
1 Island
2 Breeding Pool
4 Botanical Sanctum
4 Gemstone Mine
4 Yavimaya Coast
Creatures
4 Allosaurus Rider
2 Autochthon Wurm
4 Chancellor of the Tangle
1 Laboratory Maniac
4 Simian Spirit Guide
1 Wild Cantor
2 Griselbrand
1 Lightning Storm
1 Noxious Revival
2 Manamorphose
3 Dissenter's Deliverance
4 Nourishing Shoal
4 Summoner's Pact
4 Eldritch Evolution
4 Neoform
4 Serum Visions
3 Chalice of the Void
2 Defense Grid
2 Engineered Explosives
2 Leyline of Sanctity
1 Pact of Negation
1 Pongify
1 Rapid Hybridization
3 Spell Pierce
Back to a higher land count and fewer tech 1-ofs.
4 Botanical Sanctum
2 Breeding Pool
4 Gemstone Mine
1 Island
2 Yavimaya Coast
Creatures
4 Allosaurus Rider
2 Autochthon Wurm
4 Chancellor of the Tangle
2 Griselbrand
1 Laboratory Maniac
4 Simian Spirit Guide
1 Street Wraith
1 Wild Cantor
1 Life Goes On
4 Manamorphose
4 Nourishing Shoal
1 Pact of Negation
4 Summoner's Pact
1 Edge of Autumn
4 Eldritch Evolution
4 Neoform
1 Safewright Quest
4 Serum Visions
2 Pact of Negation
3 Autumn's Veil
2 Noxious Revival
4 Oxidize
4 Slaughter Pact
4 Botanical Sanctum
2 Breeding Pool
4 Gemstone Mine
1 Island
2 Yavimaya Coast
Creatures
4 Allosaurus Rider
2 Autochthon Wurm
4 Chancellor of the Tangle
2 Griselbrand
1 Laboratory Maniac
4 Simian Spirit Guide
1 Street Wraith
1 Wild Cantor
1 Life Goes On
4 Manamorphose
4 Nourishing Shoal
1 Pact of Negation
4 Summoner's Pact
1 Edge of Autumn
4 Eldritch Evolution
4 Neoform
1 Safewright Quest
4 Serum Visions
3 Pact of Negation
4 Leyline of Sanctity
4 Oxidize
4 Slaughter Pact
These ones are also on the extremely land-light configuration. I guess Life Goes On is OK as a 5th Nourishing Shoal when you're counting on comboing off the turn you cheat out Griselbrand.