MTG Salvation

Quote from wilier

I've never said the list is bad or something, I just said that isnt true the list is faster than others. It can be faster but more inconsistent. And the regular line is just lower than the normal lists. And im going to say why:

First of all you cant count Oracles and Explore as 1 ramp. They are what they are and the math's are easy. So lets suppose you are on turn 2, you have 2 lands in play and 1 more land in hand. That means that if you're on the play you drew 8 cards total and left on your deck 52, 20 of them lands. The percentage of flipping one land with Oracle is 38,5% and for Explore in this case is the same but you know for sure that Explore can be even worse if you have no more lands in hand, so this is actually a good cenario and a regular one. So its not even close fifty fifty. If for you this variance is good well that's your oppinion. Not mine

So just to finish my point regular list: 8 real ramp (SfT + Sakura) + 3/4 Farseek = 11/12. Your list 8 real ramp + 6*0,385 = 10,31. Now add your 23 lands in opp to 24/25 regular and I think it is really easy to see that it isnt faster in reality.

In my previous post, I counted Coiling Oracle as 0.25 ramp each (they might be closer to 1/3 each, but the conservative estimate actually feels right) and Explore as 0.5 ramp each, which is probably too low.

This is why I feel that Explore is worth closer to 1 ramp than 0.5:

• I don't keep hands with 1 or fewer lands in them (unless I'm down to 5 cards in hand or less, but I know I'm hooped in that situation, anyway).
• (I don't keep hands with 6-7 lands in them.)
• If I keep a hand with 4-5 lands, Turn 3 Explore definitely ramps me.
• If I keep a hand with 3 lands in it, Turn 2 Explore definitely ramps me (but I can't hold up Remand/Izzet Charm).
• Explore is the shakiest when I keep a 2-land hand--in order to make it ramp me, I need to draw a land with it or by the time I cast Turn 2 Explore.

The chance that I keep a 7-card, 3-land hand is (23C3)(37C4)/(60C7) = 30.29%, where XCY = (X!)/((Y!)(X - Y)!).
The chance that I keep a 7-card, 4-5-land hand is ((23C4)(37C3) + (23C5)(37C2))/(60C7) = 17.82% + 5.80% = 23.62%.
The chance I keep a 7-card, 2-land hand is (23C2)(37C5)/(60C7) = 28.56%. If I'm on the play, I crack no fetchlands, and I cast no cantrips, the chance that I draw no lands before Turn 2 or with the Explore is (32/53)(31/52) = 35.99%, which means I have a 64.01% chance of hitting at least one land.

As 30.29% + 23.62% + (28.56% x 64.01%) = 72.19%, those are actually pretty good odds of early Explore making payday (well, then I need to take real life into account such as Explore not being in my opening hand, 6-card hands, and Turn 1 Serum Visions, but the odds likely won't dip below 50%).

I've been disgusted often enough by being down to only Search for Tomorrow/Sakura-Tribe Elder and lands in late-game hands that I believe Explore is significantly stronger late-game than Farseek is. I've actually had fewer problems not hitting the 7th-8th land because of my cantrip density.

None of the primer lists have 3 Farseek--they only go as high as 2. I also don't recall seeing any MTGO/PTQ/GP lists with 3-4 Farseek that also play Cryptic Command (give me a list if you have seen some!). Thus, I actually do have approximately the same average ramp as typical Cryptic lists do (well, and one less land).

I've felt a significant speed boost because of my higher cantrip count and the fact that my most expensive cantrip is now 3 cmc--from my testing, I've been able to outrace Burn around half the time pre-board with my version, while the Cryptic version won significantly less often against the same Burn deck. (I've found Affinity pre-board match-ups about equal, as Cryptic and Tiago into Cryptic buys enough time for the Cryptic version, while my version times Bolts well and still churns out some Turn 4 wins.)

I would imagine the list looks fine. Although I'm not sure I would feel that safe trying to outrace aggro. Although the oracles should probably buy a half turn. It comes down to different play styles I suppose. I'll try this mode out and see how well it works for me. Although I'm still not keen on bound//determined.

Does your version have the same brutal match up against anything with blue? Having search for tomorrow remanded really is a punch in the nuts. Also cryptic is really only an all star vs mid range style decks and even then (I'm looking at you jund) their best tech against us is already uncounterable a la slaughter games.

Quote from wilier

Take a look at the last scapeshift list in a GP

Farseek is one of my least favorite cards in the deck. Most of the time I wish it was something else to be honest. 2x Farseek for me has worked well. It comes up infrequently enough to prevent me from crying a little on the inside and has given me some extremely fast starts frequently enough to warrant its inclusion.

Also, is it me or has scapeshift not been putting up very good numbers lately? Perhaps it's the upsurge of U tron?

I would run plasm captures only in the titan builds of scapeshift. I would that card and play CC otherwise.

Quote from wilier

Take a look at the last scapeshift list in a GP

OK, I took a look. It does have 4 Farseeks (and 3 Search for Tomorrows) in it. I rescind my comment.

May as well take a look at its ramp and cantrip counts, then:


He's got 25 lands, 11 ramp spells, and 11 cantrips (Cryptic counts, Tiago doesn't, and Izzet Charm doesn't again). Something tells me that he definitely plays this like a control deck and not a combo deck, and I'm thankful he packs all 4 Obstinate Baloths in the board (because with a low 11 cantrips, he is not finding Scapeshift consistently by Turn 4-5 anytime soon).

That's pretty darn similar to my list. Although I'm running 3x serum visions + 1x SFT over farseek. Farseek was never a very happy draw for me tbh. Although it provided the ability to race pretty darn well. I think it's mostly a playstyle preference.

This new M14 card Awaken the Ancient looks like a decent alt wincon for us. Thoughts?

Been looking at several sidebaords and im alittle confused about wurmcoils and inferno titans. Is there a specific matchup that one will no suffice and the other will? Sharfmans deck has 2 wurms and a single titan, and this just threw me off.

Im really digging the gifts tech that Strawlies is running for various reasons.

Sorry it's been a while. I was working on some stuff and haven't been able to play a whole lot of scapeshift. Strawlies, that list looks really solid. I'll throw it together at some point and take it to my LGS to have a few rounds with it. The idea of Gifts + Scapeshift is really appealing to me. It opens the door to a lot of things (especially out of the sideboard) and I think it can really help further your gameplan.

Basically, I like the list a lot, and imma throw it together sometime soon and test it out. I'll get back to you when I do.

What I've been playing lately;

I call it Scapegift as it is part Scapeshift combo, part Gift Ungiven control. When M14 is out, I'll probably have a Scavenging Ooze sideboard plan, in a mid-range role against heavy hate, but it will need testing. Assuming the control role to its full extent and having Gift as a CA powerhouse (Tiago+3 spells), or a lock (EE+LftL+Ruins+x), or a hard tutor (tiago+witness+scapeshift+x) is incredible. The flexibility it gives to the deck is awesome. I play STE because I felt like I could use minimal ramp in the deck, and being able to chump with him makes it effective in the control plan, even without Scapeshift out early. I often Gift for value first. Loam gives a nice way to hit 7-8 lands without investing too much mana into ramp, and keeping mana open for control. I play a 5cc version of Gift Control too, and what I miss the most from the other color is a decent way to reuse the Tiago (Sun Titan).
The sideboard is metacalled and unfinished. Just though I'd share this list as the plan is slightly different. Anyone else tried gift to fuel scapeshift as a control powerhouse?

Hi guys, looking at the top 8 from GP Portland, how would one pick between the Titan and the 'other' version (Cryptics ect)? I'm playing on MTGO.

Why is the Scapeshift forum so dead???

Hawks if when you say Doran you mean a Junk midrange deck, I've beat it a lot in practice. If you mean actual Doran in the deck then I haven't seen that one yet.

How big is your sample size?

Here's what I'm playing just for reference...it's the Top 8 GP Portland list, -1 Cryptic +1 Izzet Charm until I get another Cryptic.

Quote from HawksSoc

I know right, it really is dead lately

Yep I mean actual Doran, plays Doran, Treefolk Harbinger, Smiter and stuff like that (Smiter is a massive problem for me, was thinking over changing my Bolts for Vapor Snags so I suck less against it). Admittedly my sample size is not large, at three fnm's I'v gone 2-2, 2-2, and 1-2. I just feel the deck should be playing better or I'm just playing it wrong or something. I'm struggling with working out whether to play it as combo or control. Perhaps I'm just frustrated.
May I ask what games you bring in the Teferi's for, and what they add to the deck? I'd seen them in lists before and always wondered.

Are you just having problems racing it? Another Cryptic wouldn't be the worst. And it doesn't kill Doran, but if your Bolts are rotting in your hand, some Flame Slashes might be what you need. It's the best removal I know of with the downside of not going to the dome. Also if he has a bunch of x/3s then Firespout may be better than Pyroclasm for you.

Teferi is for slower counter matchups, if you stick it then it's going to be hard for them to remove it, and obviously they can't counter your Scapeshift when you untap.

Quote from HawksSoc

Yep the problem is racing it, Loxodon Simiter especially, you can't counter it and its four toughness is killer, it just knocks me right down and i have no answer for it game one, with only [CARD]echoing truth
[/CARD] post board which isn't great. Do you think Flame Slash is better to try then Vapor Snag? Obviously F.S kills it dead whereas Snag just bounces but that can be a great tempo loss doing it on their turn.

Playing more Cryptic Commands is a big help when you're trying to race creature decks. Ideally you want to have the turn 4-6 combo draw (2+ramp spells into Scapeshift) but when you fall short of that, Cryptic buying you a turn with no attack and an extra draw is where you want be. The Serum Visions are an easy cut I think; I've never been impressed with the card and every time I test it again I cut it almost immediately (it's made even worse in Scapeshift than it inherently is by the number of shuffle effects messing with the scry).

EDIT P.S.: Flooded Groves and fetches (or at least the latter) really help in casting Cryptic as well.

Quote from HawksSoc

Hi thanks for the reply! Yeah I figured the Visions wouldn't be great, I just had to try em cos Telling Time was infuriating me. I don't know if you saw my original post, but I was talking about how I like to play the deck as a control list, instead of racing to the needed amount of lands asap. Can I get your thoughts on this, is it the right/wrong/ok way to do it? For an example on turn three if I had the choice between slamming down a Search for Tomorrow and tapping out, I in most cases would not do so, and instead would hold up the mana and do something on their turn, be it counter or maybe end-stepping a Peer Through Depths. I love grinding out long games through good selective countering and then winning with a Scapeshift. Maybe I should tinker my list towards that a little more.

Obviously if it's not working for you, you should probably try a different approach. I've had a number of Smiter decks played against me, and they're not that scary. A 4/4 on turn 2-3 isn't a big deal when you're winning turn 5-6-7. You have no need to grind out games with slower aggro/midrange decks, you're only wanting to counter/kill something that's going to stop you from winning once you have 7-8 lands. If you're not ramping into those lands, you're falling behind the aggro/midrange decks while you try to play them when you draw them. Give a standard list with more ramp a try and play it as more of a combo deck with protection for the combo, I think you'll have better results.

Quote from HawksSoc

Thanks for the help, I think i'll have to, its just not working for me. From my list on the previous page would you recommend any particular changes?

You could try my list, and tune the SB to your meta.

If you're planning to play FNMs you don't have to have the Snapcasters and Cryptics, if you expect to win a tournament any bigger than that, you do. I'm only playing 2 Cryptics and it's fine. A 3rd Izzet Charm has been okay in it's place. I would recommend getting the fetches, and a Flooded Grove if you play Cryptics.

This may be the most nit-picky question ever, but here goes.

Is there really a purpose to running the single Flooded Grove? Wouldn't another Breeding Pool work just as well in that slot?

Quote from Gh0st6885

This may be the most nit-picky question ever, but here goes.

Is there really a purpose to running the single Flooded Grove? Wouldn't another Breeding Pool work just as well in that slot?

Color fixing is a glorious thing. Being able to play the land and get the blues needed for Cryptic Command or the extra Forest for the scapeshift is awesome. It's not to the point where you want to overwhelm your deck with un-tutorable lands, but I've found that most of the time they hit, they are welcomed to the board.

Is this thread the correct one for the prime time version or only the regular version of the deck?