Once again, your insight is invaluable and I really appreciate this discussion!
One little detail I'd like to mention is that you were referring to an older build I had. My current version (the last one I posted) does have the detention sphere and doesn't have ephemerate or soulherder.
Also I see your experience with the build is greatly different from mine and that might stem from the fact that I was a worse player a year ago than I am now so I'm definetly interested in giving this shell a go. I will make this my primary build for the next month to see if I come to the same conclusions as you as your arguments are sound.
Some questions I have about the build:
First one is about the number of mortarpod. How did you settle on 3?
Second is how good does this shell deal with burn? Basically not losing life from fetches and shocks and putting a batterskull on the table?
The other questions stem from the sideboard: I've never been a huge fan of Lavinia, azorius renegade. Do you think she's useful enough to merit a place in the side? Also blessed alliance. I haven't used this card in a while so in what matchups do you bring it on that aren't already answered by other cards in the deck.
Aven mindcensor seems like a solid card against titan decks in general so it will be good to see how the fare.
Hello again Starstorm, my pleasure to be of service!
I see! I have your most recently posted build here, and from what I can tell the general trend is more towards consistency - which is the staple of the best plans I have been able to reliably implement with this deck. (I particularly want to remark on the fact that the Ranger-Captain of Eos and Irrigated Farmland numbers have dropped). This is a step in the right direction, because curving as naturally as possible is absolutely indispensable when playing fair Magic in a high-powered format, and the 3-mana slot is already looking like it is cutting into your other plays.
Speaking of the curve, a smooth 2-3-4-5 sequence is the secret to how good of a shape you will be in by the time you cast Sun Titan. If they enable your first one to hit the table in a good enough state that you do not care if it is hit by a Terminate or a Supreme Verdict, the game is essentially nearly over already. Pilgrim's Eye and Court Hussar help you get to your fourth, fifth, and sixth mana for free. Cards like Charming Prince and Ranger-Captain of Eos, or the Flickerwisp in other lists, need too much to go right for that to be true.
I will combine this statement with a comment on your numbers for Stoneforge Mystic, which I see from previous posts that you are finding runs out of targets too often in the lategame. Playing 4 gives a free aggressive option against corner cases from combo or control, but importantly an option that I would want to maximize anyway against the aggro and midrange strategies this deck preys on. Mistveil Plains makes a difference here if the opponent interacts with equipment, but the real trick is to be able to assume you will be seeing the majority of your deck in more than 50% of your games. Therefore, just as you should have an excess of targets for your fetchlands in case you draw some out of sequence over a 20-turn game, you should also have an excess of equipment for the Mystic. This is a valid reason for the 3 Mortarpod, but the truth is that I had moved up to playing multiple of them years before the unbanning of Mystic, and 3 before I even had the first Batterskull in the deck. Stoneforge Mystic is also card advantage that fixes two (or more) points on the curve.
I suppose I will get into my impressions on the Mortarpod here in order of importance. First and foremost, it does all of the things I am about to mention as a 2-mana play. If I ever replace any card in this list, I first ask what it does to the curve, and the two-mana options are one of the most important forms of that question in the deck. Second, it is a value play to slow down Birds of Paradise decks until sweepers take over, and one that can buy time against both low-to-the-ground aggressive decks and single large threats. Third, in the games where I remove all the Wrath of God effects, it is very important to have a way to establish all of the late-game recursion loops on-demand. Fourth, it incidentally sets up the lategame while providing protection from exile effects for Sun Titan if necessary, and gives a base-white deck access to an effect it typically does not have in its arsenal: direct damage. Fifth, the instant-speed ping is situationally incredible, and controls both Inkmoth Nexus and Blinkmoth Nexus for free, while killing Lingering Souls tokens and threats as diverse as Dark Confidant, Glistener Elf, Steel Overseer, and Vendilion Clique. Blocking vigilant creatures also becomes a much more dangerous proposition for opponents once an extra point of damage can be represented. The token is also black, which is an extra layer of insurance against protection effects like Apostle's Blessing.
The reason I eventually went up to three combined all this logic with a desire to draw them naturally on turn two against Sakura-Tribe Scout, Young Pyromancer, and mana elves.
I was distracted in answering the first of your questions, and will follow up now with the next ones (which are more straightforward).
Lavinia, Azorius Renegade is almost never game-breaking on her own, but does enough to delay Karn Liberated from Tron, Ad Nauseam from AdGrace, Whir of Invention from Whirza, Chord of Calling in Elves or Druid/Vizier combo, Past in Flames from Storm, and all the payoffs in Lotus Field combo to push those decks a turn or two up the curve on her own. She also embarrasses Delve, Cascade, Suspend, Hideaway, Convoke, Improvise, and many other cost-cheating mechanics which can generally trouble Emeria, and shuts off Pacts outright. Every extra land these decks have to play is a huge gain for white, as a colour, and she has enough incidental text to have applications against breakout and/or rogue strategies, covering corner cases and being recurred at leisure.
Blessed Alliance dovetails nicely from the discussion on Burn, so I will start with my take on Emeria's stance in the matchup. Emeria, the Sky Ruin rarely occurs early enough to matter in the absence of significant low-curve help, and I will typically sideboard one copy out if I have enough to bring in. Field of Ruin and Ghost quarter are on the lookout to cut off any splash colour if they have not yet cast a spell that their nonbasic land could represent, and Ghost Quarter in particular should be used on your own fetchlands aggressively to save a point of life. Otherwise, both pre- and post-sideboard, the puzzle is solved the same way; if they draw creatures, the odds of winning the game go up dramatically when blockers can turn them into blank draws. When their creatures have dealt ZERO damage by the final turn of a game, I am satisfied that I have put myself in the best possible position to win the match.
They will nearly always have time to play their entire hand, so I typically use Path to Exile as early and as often as possible on haste creatures. A single hit with Batterskull is very difficult to overcome, and I am happy even if Stoneforge Mystic dies immediately to a Lightning Bolt or Rift Bolt because the spells are the real battle here. I will also chump block with it quite frequently to extend the game if I am in position to hardcast Batterskull without it, since this prevents exposing anything to a value-added Searing Blaze or Searing Blood.
This is generally one of the matchups where I will sideboard in either Aven Mindcensor or Remorseful Cleric to get the Wraths out of my deck, since they have the option of stopping haste damage, and can also threaten to end the game if the opponent tries to stop interacting with the board. In this matchup, Emeria is still an excellent attrition deck, but they can sometimes choose to ignore the value we generate. It is therefore incumbent on the Emeria player to do everything possible to trade card-for-card. Lone Missionary is an absolutely invaluable tool on this front, because 4 life gains traction over their average draw of output of 3 damage, and forces them to have Boros Charm or Skullcrack to trade with it evenly. Even when they do, it still leaves behind a 2/1 body that can help your calculations on whether to try locking them under their own Eidolon of the Great Revel. This last strategy is a viable one to look out for if they do leave that card in, since its symmetrical effect leaves them powerless to remove it when it is opposed by a Wall of Omens or a Court Hussar. Given infinite time, either a Pilgrim's Eye or Mortarpod discarded to maximum hand size is sufficient to close out such a game when Emeria eventually gets online to recur a Sun titan, and Mistveil Plains will typically prompt a concession if two white permanents are already in play.
Blessed Alliance is (eventually) functionally identical to Lone Missionary, but offers both sideboard and timing flexibility. I am a fan of some amount of burst lifegain to bridge the gap before Batterskull hits, but one of these should be creature-based to force them to have Skullcrack in response to Sun Titan. If I were playing in a field where I expected Geist of Saint Traft out of Jeskai, plus a lot of Burn, I might choose to run 2 Lone Missionary and a Blessed Alliance in the sideboard. There was also a time when I ran 3 Lone Missionary in the maindeck, which turned Burn into as good a matchup as Jund, and maybe even better, but this was a heavy concession to make unless the rest of the field was decidedly aggro-centric. My current build has been good enough against burn generally that I would be willing to cut the Blessed Alliance at the moment, but since I have yet to play the matchup against a really good GP-level opponent while relying on the various Stoneforge Mystic dynamics, I have it included as extra coverage.
Was there anything else that anyone would like to have explained?
The curve drops two 3-drops and five 4-drops to swap in five 2-drops and three 3-drops here. The net effect is to go up to sixteen 2-mana plays from eleven, and up to nine 3-mana plays from eight. The instant-speed interaction also jumps from five to eleven cards, of which all but the Path to Exile effects can cleanly trade with a lethal Goblin Guide after allowing its trigger. Speaking of Path to Exile, the moment I feel that the ground is locked up with enough blockers that their path to victory is through direct damage alone, these should be used as Rampant Growth on every extra Germ token or irrelevant blocker to accelerate the lategame. Settle the Wreckage is harder to do this with, but can also have this mode with proper timing. Holding Lavinia, Azorius Renegade until a Rift Bolt is in suspend can be backbreaking, but must sometimes be weighed against delaying Skewer the Critics or blocking.
If room is required for one more advantageous component not mentioned here, a Sun Titan can also be trimmed to lower the curve even further, but Titan is typically good enough to provoke desperation plays from Burn. As a final tip, Emeria wants to encourage Burn to spend its removal on potential blockers, so if I do have an extra flash sequence to mess up combat, I try to make attacks and plays that appear to leave me exposed to an on-board Soul-Scar Mage or the like so that I can tempt them to kill the apparent lone line of defense. An infrequent interaction illustrating this is if I Path to Exile my own Wall of Omens to leave me with just a Court Hussar on defense, which might allow me to Celestial Purge their attacker if they spew a Shard Volley on it along with other spells with the expectation of recouping their losses in combat.
If any other card seems to require explanation, I would be happy to share the relevant features of its context.
GerantDePhares thank you so much for your posts. It was a pleasure to read.
The reasoning for card choices makes sense, and I agree with almost all of them. This is a tap out style deck that aims to play the long game. All cards should support that plan. I also dislike counterspells and like your sideboard a lot more. I think Damping Sphere is too good to pass right now and would include a few copies.
I have enjoyed Emeria always and play it now and then at the LGS. I went 4-0 last time with a lot of fun and grindy matches. I did not even have the SFM package lol.
I know the UW build is the traditional one and maybe the best one too. I have enjoyed playing the mono white version a little more and will continue testing with that.
My build included Ranger-Captain of Eos and Charming Prince. I like Thraben Inspector (too much) and have been playing it as a four of. Kami has also been good as a one of. It creates really awkward situations for the opponent. Now I want to try Giant Killer as the main one drop and maybe play one Thraben and one Kami.
I think Ranger-Captain of Eos is a great card. It might not work good enough on the traditional build, where you just don't have enough slots for it. It offers so much in one card that I don't think I can let it go.
Charming Prince felt good too. Scry was surprisingly useful ability to have. This might have to be cut though. Does it offer enough? On the empty board argument, it might not.
You are most welcome, I am glad you took something from my responses!
I think that the mono-white versions of the deck can come quite close in power level to the W/u versions in some respects, and I am certain that there is enough room to innovate the shell in that direction, but there is truly no replacement for Court Hussar at the moment. Aside from that, Detention Sphere and Supreme Verdict have at least rough approximations available to white. If you disregard those, the majority of the difference lies in Teferi, Time Raveler and the sideboard options right now.
With that being said, cards such as Brought Back and Hour of Revelation, not to mention Devout Lightcaster and Kor Firewalker, certainly become much more reliable when your manabase includes around 20 white sources, so I am certain that there are particularities that could give you an advantage in certain matchups. Looking across the entire format, however, I agree with the general consensus that as a competitive option W/u is better at covering all its bases.
Charming Prince struck me as a solid card, but it did not do as much as the other 2-mana options when card equity is the only thing that is evaluated. Although I am a fan of versatility, the design being balanced for two power meant that it was not able to make up for this fact for me. Again, different builds (perhaps using the green Renegade Rallier synergies) might be more in the market for this effect, but I was ultimately not.
When it comes to Ranger-Captain of Eos, the issue is slightly muddier. It is, in fact, a very strong card. Cards exist in context, though, so I can't simply say "it gains value" and leave it at that; in his case I have to consider the curve. Unfortunately, when I compare it to any other 3-drop, I can't justify playing it into a board that I will almost certainly have to wipe away completely myself within 2-3 turns, because the only way it can find me a land is by getting a Thraben Inspector.
If that is an effect that is already in demand within your deck, so much the better, and more power to you. I myself put a price on cycling that cannot exceed the 2 mana I would be willing to pay for a Wall of Omens. Anything costing 3 mana for a random card off the top has to solve another problem, and 4 mana is unrealistic enough that Solemn Simulacrum doesn't make the cut for me even though it does nearly everything Emeria wants to do. The six mana it costs for Ranger-Captain/Inspector/Clue activation wreaks havoc with the curve through the all-important Wrath turns, with no guarantee of success, and also requires additional slots of deck space which I simply cannot justify.
If I knew more about the particulars of your list, I might be able to say more, but I will leave it at that for now. It is entirely possible that your 3-mana plays can interact meaningfully enough with your 2's and your 4's that you get to run four-of Ranger-Captain of Eos and four-of Thraben Inspector with no downside. If you are not playing Wraths at all, perhaps Charming Prince has the deck equity available to flicker Solemn Simulacrum, in which case I would say that Giant Killer could indeed be fantastic. I assume you would only want a singleton, though, so maybe start testing there first, and then see if you would like more.
On one thing we can agree, though, Damping Sphere is a very good card. It feels almost like a colourless Blood Moon against Tron and Amulet Titan, and can randomly hose Lotus Field, Castle Garenbrig, Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx, and Storm while costing only two mana. I have run up to four in my sideboard in the past, and truly miss it at the moment, but it does next to nothing against Scapeshift so I have had to turn elsewhere for my current big-mana hate.
I LOVE Court Hussar. That is the reason to play the UW version and the card I miss most on mono white. Maybe Supreme Verdict is too important for the strategy to ignore. Death's Shadow is a real thing. My hope is that Giant Killer does some work there. Ranger-Captain of Eos can help a bit too. Many times they only have a few threats and tutor + sac enables you to use any removal you choose.
The more I think of it, Charming Prince will be cut for now as I try the SFM package. I will post a list later on, but now it is still a bit of a mess and I need to try how different cards feel.
Could you post your list? I may be able to help with play patterns, Death's Shadow is usually an excellent matchup for Emeria. Perhaps things are different for mono-white, but I think that the tools should all be there for you to win already.
i do not have enought time to answer and to put my analyse on my games but i reaaaally enjoy these discussions and my list is really improved now i think, because my curve and because every cards in my pack answering correctly to the 3 essential questions you find for us ! Congrats to you, we see the difference between pro player and amateurs like us
I am very glad to hear that this discussion has been productive for you, and that you feel they have improved your list!
With regards to your flattering description of my status, I think I may have misled you somewhere. Qualifying for PTs and doing well at GPs still leaves a huge skill gap to the real professionals. Based on my results, at my best I could possibly have been called a semi-pro from the end of 2014 until 2017 when I went back to work on my Masters' degree.
As for your question on my identity; pourquoi pas les deux ? I am actually part of the Canadian Fransaskois community (french-speaking Saskatchewan population) based in Saskatoon. This stretches the descriptor of "French" quite a bit, but I hope you will allow it since it is technically true.
Manage to grab the cards I was missing to try this Emeria shell and gave it a spin yesterday. Made a couple of changes based on my usual meta, having quite a lot of burn and some flash and control decks. With that in mind I put 2 charming prince and 2 teferi, time raveler and took out 1 mortarpod, 1 pilgrims's eye, 1 court hussar and 1 wrath of god. I would very much like to know your guys opinions on the changes and if you would have done it based on the meta or stick to the version posted.
In the side the only change was the addition of 1 damping sphere Instead of 1 of the pithing needle, maybe due to past fears of titan and tron decks, which unfortunately, despite showing in the tournament I didn't get to play against and therefore was unable to test it.
First match was boros burn and I lost 2-0. Game 1 I basically did everything I could to survive and managed to put a batterskull on turn 5 but it was too late. On game 2 everything was under control but a skullcrack when I was going to gain some life with batterskull and a deflecting palm on sun titan back to back sealed the game. I did sideboard a bit wrongly not putting the aven mindcensors and instead leaving 3 wraths in cause I hadn't had the chance to read your answers yet so I look forward to playing burn again and trying it correctly. I would also like to know what you think of kor firewalker in the side depending on the prevalence of burn in the meta.
Second match was infect and I won 2-0. Mortarpod and teferi, time raveler were as expected MVP cards. Sideboarded in a pitching needle for possible teferi, time raveler in their side and blinkmoth nexus and blessed alliance, taking one titan and one batterskull out. Overall same thing and patiently awaiting the time to use my removals was key to winning the match.
Third match was mono white death and taxes. It was from a good friend of mine who helped me build the deck so he knows emeria inside and out, which makes playing tricky more difficult. I ended up winning 2-0 in a match up I think I was heavily favored. Game 1 was tricky with him playing turn 1 vial, turn 2 Thalia and turn 3 arbiter into ghost quarter 2 turns in a row, taking my blue sources away, but I managed to top deck an untapped blue source for court hussar which kicked me back into the game. Game 2 I brought in 1 pithing needle for vial, Gideon, ally of zendikar and eldrazi displacer and took out 1 mortarpod, and it was a very normal safe game with me controlling the board at all times.
Last match was mono red prowess and I lost 1-2. Overall I think we're favored in this match up, and game 1 I won dealing well with the creatures. Sideboarded in 2 celestial purge and 1 blessed alliance, and for some reason didn't put in lone missionary. Took out 1 mortarpod, 1 wrath of god (Which in hindsight I think was wrong as not seeing a wrath in game 3 is what cost me the game) and 1 crucible of worlds. Game 2 I died on turn 3 because of runaway steam-kin which got completely out of control while my opponent was storming off. Game 3 I think I was quite unlucky because I didn't see any titan or wrath and even removing 5 of my opponents creatures, he just repouplated the board with a volley of spells into bedlem reveler into more hasty swiftspears.
Overall I got a feel of the deck but need to play more to truly understand more of what you wrote. If your guys have any feedback I would appreciate it very much!
Good to hear you had a chance to try things out, but I think there must have been something going on with sequencing for you not to have gone 4-0 (or 3-1 on a very bad day) against the opposition you faced (AKA Burn, Infect, Taxes, and Prowess). I see that you affected the curve slightly with your substitutions, which probably influenced things. You essentially switched a 4 down for a 3, and a 3 down for a 2 - which is a good instinct - but you also put in two Charming Prince over a Court Hussar and a Pilgrim's Eye, which makes you vulnerable to gaps in your curve and exposes you to card loss in your own wraths.
To go a little further into this, I can accept cutting a Hussar for a Teferi, Time Raveler since on average he affects the board and stack better than a 1/3 vigilance while replacing himself on-demand, but I have NEVER cut a single Eye from the deck, except post-sideboard against Remand and Electrolyze or combo situations. It is too important for guaranteeing access to the fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth land - in decreasing order of importance. The fact that one of these became a creature that doesn't even replace itself when played on-curve against aggro is a significant downgrade, and has to be justified by the metagame. Going from 3 life to 6 with Charming Prince usually gains you a single turn against burn, which is insufficient payoff for the cost to the curve. In the same circumstance, going from 3 to 7 life with Lone Missionary demands both a Boros Charm PLUS an active source of white for them to keep pace, and therefore buys two full turns (on average).
I would say that if I was hedging for the metagame you described ("Lots of burn and flash"), I would instead have felt very comfortable cutting one Wrath of God and one Detention Sphere for the two Teferi, Time Raveler. The Lone Missionary replacing a maindeck Mortarpod is a tougher sell, but situationally justifiable over removing either the last remaining Detention Sphere or the singleton Crucible of Worlds. The call on which one would depend on whether Control was completely pushed out by the Burn and Flash decks, or is simply being tuned against it. I would probably have tried my hardest NOT to include Missionary maindeck, but ultimately cut the Mortarpod rather than lose access to the single copies of those effects if I were forced to choose from the three. With two Batterskull and four Stoneforge Mystic in the deck, though, I doubt the singleton would make enough of a difference to your game 1 win percentage to be worth the inclusion.
With regards to your sideboard changes, I never go below 2 Pithing Needle effects, because exile-based removal or incidental graveyard hate can cut off Sun Titan from recurring a singleton in the later stages against Prison or Tron. These cards often cost them a turn, though, which is why I am willing to expose the first copy to them in exchange for putting another land in play uninterrupted. With the maindeck having an extra lifegain spell, I would have cut the Blessed Alliance to fit in the Damping Sphere instead, and if Tron was truly a local menace I would play a second, then even a third copy over the third and second Aven Mindcensor, respectively. Any 3-1 split is better than a 2-2 split of these, but two mana is MUCH better than 3, and Mindcensor can be more easily recurred (Via Emeria) than a noncreature spell. Sphere does nothing against scapeshift, though, so use discretion on which way to hedge. It is overkill in my experience, but if you wanted to, I could see the Kor Firewalker replacing the Lavinia, Azorius Renegade (or the second Lone Missionary if you had the first maindecked) against base-Red decks attacking on the ground.
I must go to the university now, but I will try to do a breakdown of the matchups you described using the cards you had access to, which will follow up this post. It will also be accompanied by the list that I would have run as I have outlined here.
So based off of what you said, Starstorm, I will assume you played the following 75 cards. Please let me know if any relevant interaction for the matchups you gave was not included by assuming the following list:
This is a fast enough matchup that running out of Stoneforge Mystic targets is vanishingly rare, and even if Mortarpod is a 2-drop, it doesn't really trade with anything until you have 4 mana, so removing two equipment is fine. All of the sweepers being gone does mean that an active Emeria is no longer a reuseable trigger for lifegain ETBs without your opponent playing poorly, though, so leave in 1 copy to tutor for when you need to re-establish your Lone Missionary loops if they stop attacking.
The Deflecting Palm scenario you mentioned can be avoided with pure patience, since it is often a telegraphed play. If you get the chance it can also be beaten by equipping the Sun Titan with a sacrifice ability before you attack, by having Teferi, Time Raveler in play, and by a good old-fashioned "Path to Exile my own creature in response". You can always refuse to attack as well, if you are in a position to wait on Ghost Quarter effects to tax their white mana, which you want to do anyway to eventually shut off Boros Charm and Lightning Helix.
Be aware that Sunbaked Canyon cracking in response to Field of Ruin activations will cause neither player to get a land. Try not to telegraph both this and Ghost Quarter until they are tapped low, because denying them every extra card is important while you are stabilizing. Often you will not have a choice on which land to play, though, so concern yourself more about how you will sequence the development of your own mana first. They can bring in Smash to Smithereens and both Searing Blood and Skullcrack if they see Stoneforge Mystic, typically bringing out their Eidolons and cutting Goblin Guide, then trimming singletons.
A corner-case interaction is using Celestial Purge to exile germ tokens, which can fizzle Helix and Blood, although unfortunately not Searing Blaze, which you should be aware is enabled by all our land-search effects. As you near Emeria, the Sky Ruin and Sun Titan, remember to start thinking about what they could have in their hand. They will typically be flush with land, so if they could cast their card profitably, they would have already. When they have had a card for several turns, you should respect their bluff even if you think it may be a land. Smash to Smithereens is a good card, but Batterskull can beat one with its own bounce ability if you have the time to be patient, and it is always your choice whether you ever have to put it into play. Overall, you should expose your curve to them more selectively than you would against any other deck, since they have no flexibility in trying to close the game, and must simply hope their good cards match up with yours. Think through the possible outcomes of your plays! The clock is your friend here; you will almost never be going to time.
Round 2: Infect is one of the best match-ups this deck has. It is very difficult for them to win through 4 colours' worth of creatures (counting Pilgrim's Eye), five functional Ghost Quarter effects, flying blockers, 1-mana instant-speed removal, Teferi, Time Raveler, on-board pings, and Supreme Verdict. If I make it past turn 4, I believe I have never lost a single game. Their best way to win is by going all-in on a turn-2 Glistener Elf attack, which we should discourage by representing Path to Exile with any untapped white source on turn one. The times when they have exactly 10 Infect damage line up a non-zero amount with the times we DO have the answer at the ready, but on of the only official match losses I have had to the deck was a "good beats" story from back when they had Gitaxian Probe, and had the turn 2 kill in both games after a free Peek. These days, it takes a good bit more bravery to pull the trigger.
The sweepers are completely unavoidable for them in game 1, barring a rogue maindeck Spell Pierce on specifically Wrath of God, so you should essentially never open the door to that interaction when you have so many other good options. This is the reason the card comes out in games 2 and 3. Allow them to attack first, and use removal on their end step to avoid losing games needlessly to extra damage from Blossoming Defense and Vines of Vastwood. The exception is with Settle the Wreckage, which you should cast after damage has been dealt while their creatures are technically still "attackers" in the combat step. That way, they cannot use countermagic as better than a 1-for-1 even if they have it.
Inkmoth Nexus and Pendelhaven are ways for them to work around Supreme Verdict and Mortarpod, respectively, so Field of Ruin and Ghost Quarter are important to find with Court Hussar. Their activation should follow the same principles as above, except when you would like to force them to expend extra mana by having to animate their nexus again when they might have Vines or Defenses. The wasteland effects can team up with other cards against Inkmoth Nexus to act as a "double removal spell" when you want them to dump their hand on an attack that is doomed to fail. They will invariably build up many cards between threats, but none of them have haste so you can safely ping, Path, or Wasteland their new attacker on their turn, then untap and Supreme Verdict if it survived.
With what you had, I would have removed both Batterskull, the Wrath of God, and two Charming Prince, for Pithing Needle, Lavinia, Azorius Renegade, Blessed Alliance, Disenchant, and Aura of Silence. If they are not on the Become Immense plan, one of the two Batterskull can stay in over Lavinia to give a faster option for closing the game, but in any event Stoneforge Mystic is mostly just a way to get access to the best card in the matchup: Mortarpod. Blocking their creature, then pinging it after you are certain it cannot get through for damage is good enough on its own, but after that it turns every creature you draw into almost a free Terminate. If you like, you can also bring in 2 Aven Mindcensor for 2 Detention Sphere, but I like making sure to cover my bases against strange sideboard plans when almost nothing else can go wrong. We have over three times as many answers as they have threats, and so choosing the best one to cut off their best outs to the current situation is likely your most difficult decision.
Their countermagic is generally completely outclassed by Supreme Verdict and Teferi, Time Raveler, and so you should use this recommended sideboard plan to be ready for them to bring in literally anything they have access to in a desperate bid to win any post-sideboard games. Teferi in particular is almost unfair, as a safety blanket made of reinforced titanium in a matchup that is already abysmal for them. Disenchantcan kill both Inkmoth Nexus and Spellskite, while covering against Shapers' Sanctuary or graveyard hate. I believe they can also do the trick with two Spellskite where they bounce the target of a spell between the two to draw a dozen or more cards, so make sure they are not trying to set that up. Aura of Silence is simply a better Disenchant that they can't even counter, but mind that you use Ghost Quarter and not it if you want to kill a Nexus. They can redirect Shatter effects to their 0/4, but not Strip Mine.
Pithing Needle should start by stopping them from animating Nexi so that Supreme Verdict does not open the door to a counterattack, but you should still use Field of Ruin to get them off the table in case they draw a Nature's Claim. Speaking of Disenchant effects, you should avoid giving them any value on theirs by stacking the ETB trigger of Detention Sphere, then killing it with Aura of Silence to trigger the "leaves the battlefield" ability so that their cards are permanently exiled. This is best used with a Sun Titan in hand to bring back the Aura of Silence tax effect as soon as possible. Finally, Lavinia, Azorius Renegade counters each Mutagenic Growth that they pay life for, but you will probably never get more than one this way. Her true purpose is to make Become Immense completely unworkeable, although she also counters the rebound of Distortion Strike.
Round 3: Death and Taxes is another extremely good pairing, since they are a creature deck with no real late-game reach, but they can sometimes have synergies that will force tempo loss until losing is a real possiblity. Thalia, Guardian of Thraben is particularly good at messing up the curve if our draw relies on either Path to Exile or a sweeper. This is another matchup where extra copies of Mortarpod and Pithing Needle in the 75 cover a lot of ground. The main dynamic of Wall of Omens forcing them to overextend into Wrath of God is still the defining feature of this matchup, though, and they are stuck ramping us with every one of the atrocious maindeck Path to Exile that they draw, while ours are some of the best cards we have against them. Locking them out of colourless sources is sometimes possible, and if they are W/b it often leads to running them out of basic lands in any case, so if they do not have Aether Vial their draws can be very difficult to sequence well.
Their utility lands are kept in check by Field of Ruin, but their Aven Mindcensor and particularly their Leonin Arbiter create strange wrinkles. The Arbiter's tax on library searches is symmetrical, and so it often grants Path to Exile and Ghost Quarter effects some extra power. Timing your fetchlands and deck thinning is often critical around an Aether Vial at 2 or 3 counters; the correct sequence is frequently to wait until they activate it, so that you can safely search in response when they have it tapped. There is usually no rush to thin the deck in these games, so assume all search effects are shut off by a Mindlock Orb for your fetchlands if you can, and wait to draw your mana naturally whenever you suspect foul play.
Pilgrim's Eye is sorcery-speed, and therefore much weaker to this angle of attack, but trades cleanly with x-1's and fliers under most circumstances anyway, so they are a good way to check if the coast is clear. If they are playing the Eldrazi package, Thought-Knot Seer with Eldrazi Displacer is sometimes awkward, but overall they match up poorly with Supreme Verdict, so unless they can take a stabilizing play away, the inevitability is still ours. Mistveil Plains cannot be taken, and neither can Emeria, the Sky Ruin, so as long as you have a graveyard you can beat the "lock" provided that you have so much as a Wall of Omens with a Mortarpod on it and a Stoneforge Mystic. If you ever get into an attrition game where this is your only out, start building up only lands in your hand until you have seven of them. The eighth land you find gets discarded to maximum hand size, and the Mistveil Plains returns it to your (empty) library so that they can never force you to draw your deck while Emeria will continue to trigger every upkeep for an eventual Mortarpod win.
Post sideboard, this scenario becomes more likely if they bring in Ensnaring Bridge to disrupt Sun Titan, but unless they can leverage Rest in Peace as a tempo play, they put themselves down cards for no value against a vigilant threat that still dominates their entire board. I would have removed the 2 Charming Prince and the Settle the Wreckage for the Pithing Needle, the Disenchant, and the Aura of Silence to manage Aether Vial, and because they are liable to cast Thought-Knot Seer pre-combat if we rely on Settle as a sweeper. Stoneforge Mystic and Batterskull are a winning threat, but one that is vulnerable to their taxing of search effects and their hand disruption, plus some artifact removal. Overall, their most disruptive draws are required to stop the raw card quality from becoming a telling factor, but their disruptive creatures are also the most vulnerable to Wall of Omens. A high basic land count for Emeria is an advantage long-term, and as long as the basic Island is still accessible, the rock-solid manabase should lead to a win.
Round 4: The advice given for Boros Burn all applies here, but with the tempo play of Lava Dart available, their interaction affords slightly more flexibility. Board states are both more relevant and less reliable, so the decision to try to lock them under Eidolon of the Great Revel can come quite early. The same sideboarding as before applies, except that the Remorseful Cleric can remain a Wrath of God since they cannot sideboard out all of their creatures, and it requires less than Supreme Verdict to cast. Note that running them out of basic lands is still vaguely possible, but far less likely to be relevant in time. Lavinia, Azorius Renegade has an additional card to stop in the flashback of Lava Dart, but note that a spell countered by her ability still triggers Prowess. Pilgrim's Eye is the most vulnerable play for them to enable tempo loss with, and so it is important to sequence other 2+ toughness plays first unless trying to provoke a committed attack from the opponent. This is generally a much better matchup for Emeria than the heavier Burn versions, since they have more creatures and are forced to cast their spells to gain advantage with Prowess. Settle the Wreckage is accordingly the next most important card after Lone Missionary to look for with Court Hussar.
My advice breaks down a little here, since I have never played against the version you mentioned, but at 2 mana both Bedlam Reveler and Runaway Steam-Kin are highly vulnerable to Celestial Purge and Path to Exile, which I can only assume is excellent for Emeria. Reveler's high CMC means that they will have to spend a card to kill Lavinia, and Steam-kin is even a 1/1 some of the time against the Mortarpod we would still be leaving in otherwise! I see both Blood Moon and Leyline of the Void taking up sideboard space for them on the MTGGoldfish stock lists. If they should happen to put either of those enchantments into play against you, give them a mental "thank you" for the reprieve, and ignore the useless card they have brought to the table. They are terrible card disadvantage for them, and the sideboard equity they demand leaves them no access to Searing Blood and Searing Blaze. Their artifact hate being Abrade is much better for us than Smash to Smithereens is against Batterskull. The deck appears to have traded off some speed for both explosiveness and resilience, but the explosiveness comes later on their curve and their resilience is irrelevant when all Emeria cares about is not dying, so they are at a distinct strategic disadvantage against us compared to other versions of the deck. If their explosiveness did turn out to be a difference-maker in the match, perhaps Damping Sphere could come in, but I would have to play the matchup to know for certain.
Based on my most recent post's advice, I myself would have played this 75 instead as a more efficient way to do the things you wanted to do initially:
Though I would not find it necessary or desireable myself, Kor Firewalker could be a substitute for Lavinia, Azorius Renegade. But matchups are not guaranteed, and I typically tune for the field instead of a specific enemy, unless my deck has an inherently fast clock that can be disrupted by only a small percentage of opponents, or some other overwhelming advantage that allows me to focus on specifics. The reality with Emeria is much more that of a small advantage that only consistency can press, and I treat the deck accordingly. If I had to include an ETB lifegain trigger in the deck out of consideration for several lists that attack my life total in many different ways, that would be perhaps the most reasonable time to call on Charming Prince to substitute for Lone Missionary, because it might not cost you as much if you happened to draw the latter when you never faced Burn at all. At that point, though, things quickly become speculative and inconsistent.
This is the definition of the Whack-A-Mole problem I had mentioned in an earlier post; it is a possible +5% edge in a single matchup for a possible -2% edge in several others. The tiebreaker is that, even in the cases when Charming Prince does what we want, he still does no more than repeat what the deck already does a little more explosively, with the exception of the lifegain trigger. Spending a card to flicker something doesn't usually win a game on its own unless we are already in good shape, and if you have smoothed every rough edge out of your curve the scry 2 is also unlikely to affect your keep or mulligan decisions. Since we are therefore comparing just the life aspect of the cards, the math for Lone Missionary is simple: 4 is greater than 3. If you absolutely must make maindeck concessions to a matchup, then all else being equal I would rather take the +10% option against them since everything has a chance to cost me elsewhere. I suppose, though, that this might be just my personal preference again.
Hopefully this has been helpful, although if you had more details on specific situations (recording the board states and graveyards from the losing games, for example) I could reconstruct the matches far more accurately for the purposes of giving advice.
After considerable reflection, I didn't want to leave the list that ended the previous post up on its own merits, in case people though that I was recommending it. That list is a meta call, and in the end I cannot stand behind it. Here is what I would run instead at a local tournament:
Essentially, the maindeck Lone Missionary does not do enough in the dark. Right now, in an open field, it should be a Mortarpod - unless there is a very good reason for it to be otherwise. I am also less inclined to give up the second Detention Sphere, since the tempo aspect of Teferi, Time Raveler is less relevant than the average length of time that threats are contained for, but this is an extremely close call. I think that right now, on the balance, I would be happier drawing 2 Sphere than 2 Teferi, but overall happiest if I drew 1 of each.
In the sideboard, the Blessed Alliance is therefore reinstated, and I have put in the Damping Sphere over one Aven Mindcensor so that anyone looking to try the deck has access to every effect they may need as a clue for how to play specific matchups. Using the 75 cards posted here, there should always be a legitimate chance of winning any game of Modern - regardless of pairings.
If, after having played a match against a given deck, you do not at least feel like you understand where a matchup can be pressured, please let me know. I will respond with the way I would approach things, and adjustments can be made based off the exchange.
Hey there! Once again thanks for all the detailed explanations you've been providing! After playing a bit more with the deck I came to the same conclusion as you in the usefulness of a third mortarpod, so you were right when you said it was something I had to experience to actually see.
That said, I'm running a list just like the one you posted with the exception of having and extra Teferi instead of a detention sphere!
What I'm finding hard with the deck is the sideboard. I know what things to put in but I'm left always iffy on what to take out.
For example against ponza and amulet titan. Assume that the list don't have much variance from what is shown on mtggoldfish. Could you explain how you would sideboard in these match ups and why?
Once again thanks for all the help and hope to post some results soon!
Assuming that, and going off of the top-placing MTGgoldfish lists as you suggested, I would consider both R/G Ponza and Amulet Titan to be poor matchups - especially pre-sideboard. They can both be conquered in the same way, however, and the trick to both lists is to lean into their disadvantages as hard as possible. It is somewhat like reeling in a fish that is too strong for the rod you have, because if they are prepared to do their thing early enough, their best draws beat our best draws almost every time. If those decks were unavoidable, and you still wanted to play Emeria, I would change the sideboard slightly to improve your chances (but again, not too much, because of the Whack-A-Mole issue). The true percentages are close, though, and if the pilot is sub-optimal or has a poor draw, I find both of these are actually very winnable.
Against Ponza, the recent banning of Mycosynth Lattice removes a hugely important aspect of the game dynamics, and affects play patterns a lot. It may actually be a positive matchup now, since their best draws are so inconsistent. I would have to test to see how much, and what they replace the card with, but its departure will almost certainly improve the matchup significantly. My confidence intervals on these changes are very low in consequence, but what I have done in the past is to remove the 3 Supreme Verdict, 2 of the Court Hussar, and the Teferi, Time Raveler (two in your case) to reduce my reliance on the blue mana they usually attack first, and the Wrath Of God to make them work harder through our blockers, and then bring in the 2 Pithing Needle, the 2 Celestial Purge, the Lone Missionary, the Lavinia, Azorius Renegade, the Disenchant and the Aura of Silence. Their land destruction has to happen at specific times in the early game to be truly backbreaking, so the Lavinia and the Naturalize effects can join the Pithing Needle and Mortarpod to stop their Arbor Elf and Utopia Sprawl from accelerating consistently. Ignore Blood Moon whenever you can until you are ready to take over, it is usually easy to do so when you only require basic Plains for 57 out of the 60 cards now in your deck.
Bloodbraid Elf is good at compounding advantages, but Wall of Omens is excellent at holding the body back, so their Cascades have to be very strong to gain ground on stable boards. Batterskull is a must-answer threat for them, and since I have not played the matchup since Stoneforge Mystic has been added, I believe that their Pillage will have to be held for it more often (which should again be very good news overall). I have had to face different finishers than the top list I found on MTGgoldfish, so things may be different if you see Stormbreath Dragon (in which case I sadly would have to cut the last Court Hussar to keep in Wrath of God), but generally Batterskull on a Pilgrim's Eye will eventually outclass all of their creature finishers. On its own, the equipment already trades for everything but Inferno Titan.
Path to Exile is fantastic, in both modes (removal or ramp), but try to use it on them only after they are out of their "explosive" phase, once they have likely cast their best cards. 24 lands and a Crucible of Worlds plus fourPilgrim's Eye will eventually get us out of trouble, so even if their Stone Rain will hurt, ultimately it puts them down a card for nothing if the game lasts long enough. When both decks have 5 or 6 mana, we can match them play-for-play, and they are much less threat-dense than Emeria so dealing with their recurring card advantage is the priority in this next phase of the matchup. Celestial Purge pulls double duty here, since it is a relatively clean answer to Chandra, Torch of Defiance. Tireless Tracker will usually only get a card or two before we draw a Path, which means that Karn, the Great Creator is their best chance to steal games when manabases can no longer be breakpoints.
Pithing Needle can, as mentioned before, name Arbor Elf because untapping a land is not technically a "mana ability", but this is an awful long-term play. It should name Karn first to avoid a whole Pandora's Box of potential sideboard scenarios, then Chandra, but that rule gets bent quite often to answer the problems at hand. Of relevance, "Clue" is not a valid card name for the Needle, but the graveyard ability of Seasoned Pyromancer is. Use this information to make your decisions if it is ever relevant. Detention Sphere is fairly good here, and so is Aura of Silence, but use them together to permanently exile things once you are getting close to Sun Titan mana. This way you can minimize you exposure to sideboarded Destructive Revelry and friends.
Finally, remember that Mortarpod grants the ability to the creature it is equipped to, and so the germ still blocks while killing Arbor Elf, even through Karn's Null Rod effect. The ping helps keep loyalties low, but try to get one equipped to a Wall of Omens before the ability to move it around is shut off. An 0/5 is surprisingly difficult for them to get through on the ground, and if they ever try to kill anything with Bonecrusher Giant, you can use Paths, Pings, or Disenchants to fizzle the target and deny them the 4/3 body. Their Basic Mountain count is sometimes extremely low on the Red end of the spectrum, so if they do not have Blood Moon it is actually Emeria that has a more relevant mana-denial plan through Ghost Quarter and Field of Ruin, which can both knock them off of RR for a few turns (though multiple Simian Spirit Guide can eventually give them a Chandra, Torch of Defiance to unlock things).
I have a soccer game to go to, but that advice is the beginning of the plan against both decks. I will have to give details and get into play patterns later.
Good luck if you have to play against them before I do so!
Where Amulet titan is concerned, it is a highly intricate matchup, and depends a lot on the sequence of draws both players get, but is very skill-intensive for Emeria regardless. If I won game 1, I would remove all 4 Wrath effects and a Teferi, Time Raveler, then trim 2 Stoneforge Mystic and a Batterskull to bring in 2 Pithing Needle, 2 Aven Mindcensor, 1 Damping Sphere, 1 Aura of Silence, 1 Disenchant, and 1 Lavinia, Azorius Renegade. They go through a good deal of their deck in most games against us, so it will be possible to get a good idea of whether they brought out Sakura-tribe Scout if you lose game 2. If you determine this, or if you lost game 1, then I typically trim 2 Mortarpod instead of 2 Stoneforge Mystic to have the option for more pressure on turns 2 and 3 on the play. If the pilot is poor or inexperienced, they will allow Emeria a lot of value by pushing too aggressively. Their ability to resolve the first Titan early is the biggest factor to consider, since the amount of advantage they can gain with a trigger or two can be mitigated when Emeria is set up, but they are a very consistent deck at finding their flagship creature, so their major synergies are all relevant eventually.
In game 1, we have a fair amount of interaction for the one-shot Primeval Titan kills in Path to exile plus Ghost Quarter, and later on withField of Ruin and Settle the Wreckage, so they are on their backup plan very early on. This is the more threatening avenue, and involves grinding card advantage by continually bouncing Tolaria West with Simic Growth Chamber to set up a stream of Titans that continuously trigger Field of the Dead. Their manabase is very greedy, so games can often hinge on which lands they are forced to play to get up and running. If they expose their 1 maindeck Field of the Dead too early, that is a huge piece of their gameplan to eliminate. Slayers' Stronghold and Vesuva are also high-priority targets, and Bojuka Bog can also eventually be relevant, but the real calculations only begin with those if they manage to get a Tolaria West back to their hand. This opens up Pacts, and therefore more Titan triggers, which leads to even more decision trees which all depend on the board state. Try to prioritize an active Ghost Quarter effect to prevent this by killing the Transmute land while the bounce trigger is on the stack, but know that they are also playing the Ghost Quarter game (both mentally, and with their own literal copy). They typically have 3 or fewer basics, though, so be aggressive with these where you can.
Post board, things are just as murky, if not more so. Pithing Needle has an abundance of targets, but common ones are both the Transmute on their 2 or 3 Tolaria West, and the 1 or 2 Engineered Explosives which they are often sent to fetch. Tectonic Edge or Ghost Quarter are also possible names (the latter remembering that the effect is symmetrical), and Sakura-Tribe Scout is again, not a mana ability. Note that they will probably have access to 1 more Field of the Dead after sideboarding. Generally, ignore their snake if you can, since their explosiveness is usually much less relevant post-board, but instant-speed bouncelands can be a headache for Field of Ruin so at least 1 Mortarpod always stays in. Damping Sphere is excellent in many ways here since it often cuts them off of several colours in their bouceland manabase in addition to severely inhibiting the quantity of mana they can produce. Aven Mindcensor is the nearest thing to an "easy mode" card for Emeria in the matchup, and it is often difficult for them to deal with flying creatures, so it is almost realistic to expect the bird wizard to go all the way on his own. Generally, he needs some support and so this is not true, but the fact that he sometimes pecks for the full 20 unassisted should tell you how valuable his effect is.
The Disenchant effects are generally aimed at Amulet of Vigor, but Aura of Silence also has very strange interactions with Engineered Explosives. They can announce X (as a cost) to be 0, but they must pay at least 2 mana for it due to the tax effect of the Aura. This is sometimes added to by Damping Sphere such that they literally have to spend 3 or more mana to get it into play, and at that point it may not be able to kill the Pithing Needle they are aiming for. Killing colourless mana sources makes this especially tricky for them to play around, but since Damping Sphere gives them several free sources in the first place, that is often inadviseable. The trick with Detention Sphere and its ETB ability is relevant here as well, since they often have Krosan Grip or Beast Within to get their cards back, but having the Aura sit in play is quite valuable in this matchup. Lavinia, Azorius Renegade is also very good here, even in the lategame, since she first forces them to play somewhat fair, then counters Pacts for the remainder of the game. (This is unless they are able to awkwardly play a spell into an onboard Damping Sphere first, using its tax effect to spend at least one mana on their "free" Summoner's Pact, but this makes their tutored Titan cost a minimum of 8 mana, in addition to the 1+? they already paid. Because of this interaction, though, I would try to use Teferi to bounce the Damping Sphere if I was starting to rely on Lavinia.)
There are also sometimes openings to knock them off of the ability to pay for Pacts for free wins, which means I pay exceptionally close attention to their lands. Usually, their diverse array of land-based threats makes this a challenging prospect, but as mentioned before, their manabase is built about as sturdily as a Jenga tower. The most common feature of all these games is that you must keep track of a great deal of variables, including the numbers of each Pact and Titan you have dealt with. Knowing how many threats are left to them is very important, since once their Titans are gone the deck is just a pile of random land-based synergy which Crucible of Worlds and Sun Titan will eventually grind away to powder. Ramunap Excavator is an avenue for them to rebuild, but Path to Exile steps in there as well to shut the card down relatively easily if that is their only plan. Mistveil Plains does a lot of work in the longer games here by recycling non-permanents in between shuffles, leading to a higher density of interactive spells as the manabase begins to expand out of the 2-4 mana "danger" range. Settle The Wreckage is a very important effect to keep access to through Bojuka Bog with Mistveil, because it is virtually always a clean answer to both a single Titan and a horde of zombies. A huge advantage over Scapeshift is that they have no fetchlands, so it is possible to see everything coming once Slayers' Stronghold is under control.
I think that is it for now, I hope it satisfies your desire for knowing which cards to watch out for.
Looks like this thread has been fairly active in my absence, I'm glad. I've been piloting my mono white variant myself and have been testing with the new Birth of Meletis. So far I've been testing three of them and have really liked it. Birth of Meletis has allowed me to keep otherwise skeptical hands and it has consistently been good in the early to mid game. One of my particular favourite lines so far has been to curve BoM into Flickerwisp to reset the counters. Major changes I've made to my list have included adding my two of Hour of Revelation into the maindeck and removing Brought Back=and the fetchlands entirely.
I've just started delving back into modern again so I'm still rusty but so far I've played against Burn, GDS, Ponza, Dredge x 2, and Soulherder. I won against one of each but lost against in my second dredge matchup. My suggestion if you're worried about winning that matchup and are playing RCoE would be to add a Burrenton Forge-Tender to the maindeck. The only way that dredge can win after you've established a Kami of False Hope lock is to burn you out with a big Conflagrate. Plus it'll hedge against burn, which is never a bad thing.
On another note my match with Soulherder was a lot of fun, we're both grindy decks with some graveyard synergies but I've found Emeria Control is favored. This is because while Emeria Control can't quite match their velocity early, their engine requires a good board presence and we play wrath effects.
I had seen The Birth of Meletis in the spoilers and had, in fact, brewed up a list with strong similarities to yours over the 75. The card even pushed me over my self-imposed threshold of 13 advantageous plays that cost less than two for the conditional inclusion of Flickerwisp. The enchantment being immune to typical removal was the tipping point on that front, so we'll have to see. Here was my take:
The Hour of Revelation seeming so strong and so easy to cast in this version made me want an extra copy, and the ability to instant-speed Vindicate lands at a whim with Generous Gift made me much more inclined to increase their value plays in Filigree Familiar and Solemn Simulacrum. The idea of being able to cantrip off of both the Planar Cleansing and the Beast Within was too much to resist, and this in turn made me want to diversify my flash plays, which led to Brought Back finding its way into the mix.
If you want my take on the card philosophy for why Ranger-Captain of Eos and Flickerwisp generally only fit in the absence of sweepers for this archetype, and hence why the sideboard package is the way it is, please feel free to look at my first posts on page 65 of this thread, where I made the case against the inclusion of the cards (with some success, I think).
Overall, the main advantage of this version over U/W is the cleanest manabase possible, and so I feel it may be possible to put in the 4th Emeria for consistency. This is a noticeably different direction to the other builds on here so far, due mostly to the presence of Hour of Revelation, but I think it may have an even bigger edge in aggro and creature matchups, if that is possible. Barring the land destruction package it will still suffer just as much against combo, though, and so in all likelihood lists such as this will just be a fun alternative. The default build that I have found to be the most competitive in large tournaments (and will assume so going forward unless others wish to report better results) is currently still the following:
The tightrope to be walked is so subtle that things could easily change as Theros; Beyond Death begins to affect the average Grand Prix scene. I have recently been asked to give my opinions on the matchup against Ponza, for example, and I had to admit that my advice might completely change depending on what they replaced the Mycosynth Lattice in the sideboard with since that card's banning. I have a very strong suspicion that the matchup is now favoured for Emeria, since they no longer have a clean sequence that can both lock out and trump Emeria, the Sky Ruin. Were you able to determine the replacement(s) your opponent ran, and was your feeling in the matchup in general indeed more positive?
That was quick, I skimmed through page 65 to look at your points on RCoE. I do disagree, I personally find RCoE irreplaceable in a lot of matches but not something I'd want to sideboard into.
I've played with 4 emeria before, but was often drawing multiple before I had the 7 plains required. Usually 1 active emeria is enough to take over games. I also despise tapped lands, nothing feels worse than drawing them when you need to curve into a wrath, or sun titan.
The ponza matchup was fine, I saw Utopia Sprawl, Arbor Elf, Pillage, Acid Moss, CToD, Tireless Tracker, and Inferno Titan. BoM and Flickerwisp beat them on it's own.
How is Brought Back working for you?
Has anyone tested the heliod ballista combo?If so what do you think of it?
One little detail I'd like to mention is that you were referring to an older build I had. My current version (the last one I posted) does have the detention sphere and doesn't have ephemerate or soulherder.
Also I see your experience with the build is greatly different from mine and that might stem from the fact that I was a worse player a year ago than I am now so I'm definetly interested in giving this shell a go. I will make this my primary build for the next month to see if I come to the same conclusions as you as your arguments are sound.
Some questions I have about the build:
First one is about the number of mortarpod. How did you settle on 3?
Second is how good does this shell deal with burn? Basically not losing life from fetches and shocks and putting a batterskull on the table?
The other questions stem from the sideboard: I've never been a huge fan of Lavinia, azorius renegade. Do you think she's useful enough to merit a place in the side? Also blessed alliance. I haven't used this card in a while so in what matchups do you bring it on that aren't already answered by other cards in the deck.
Aven mindcensor seems like a solid card against titan decks in general so it will be good to see how the fare.
I see! I have your most recently posted build here, and from what I can tell the general trend is more towards consistency - which is the staple of the best plans I have been able to reliably implement with this deck. (I particularly want to remark on the fact that the Ranger-Captain of Eos and Irrigated Farmland numbers have dropped). This is a step in the right direction, because curving as naturally as possible is absolutely indispensable when playing fair Magic in a high-powered format, and the 3-mana slot is already looking like it is cutting into your other plays.
Speaking of the curve, a smooth 2-3-4-5 sequence is the secret to how good of a shape you will be in by the time you cast Sun Titan. If they enable your first one to hit the table in a good enough state that you do not care if it is hit by a Terminate or a Supreme Verdict, the game is essentially nearly over already. Pilgrim's Eye and Court Hussar help you get to your fourth, fifth, and sixth mana for free. Cards like Charming Prince and Ranger-Captain of Eos, or the Flickerwisp in other lists, need too much to go right for that to be true.
I will combine this statement with a comment on your numbers for Stoneforge Mystic, which I see from previous posts that you are finding runs out of targets too often in the lategame. Playing 4 gives a free aggressive option against corner cases from combo or control, but importantly an option that I would want to maximize anyway against the aggro and midrange strategies this deck preys on. Mistveil Plains makes a difference here if the opponent interacts with equipment, but the real trick is to be able to assume you will be seeing the majority of your deck in more than 50% of your games. Therefore, just as you should have an excess of targets for your fetchlands in case you draw some out of sequence over a 20-turn game, you should also have an excess of equipment for the Mystic. This is a valid reason for the 3 Mortarpod, but the truth is that I had moved up to playing multiple of them years before the unbanning of Mystic, and 3 before I even had the first Batterskull in the deck. Stoneforge Mystic is also card advantage that fixes two (or more) points on the curve.
I suppose I will get into my impressions on the Mortarpod here in order of importance. First and foremost, it does all of the things I am about to mention as a 2-mana play. If I ever replace any card in this list, I first ask what it does to the curve, and the two-mana options are one of the most important forms of that question in the deck. Second, it is a value play to slow down Birds of Paradise decks until sweepers take over, and one that can buy time against both low-to-the-ground aggressive decks and single large threats. Third, in the games where I remove all the Wrath of God effects, it is very important to have a way to establish all of the late-game recursion loops on-demand. Fourth, it incidentally sets up the lategame while providing protection from exile effects for Sun Titan if necessary, and gives a base-white deck access to an effect it typically does not have in its arsenal: direct damage. Fifth, the instant-speed ping is situationally incredible, and controls both Inkmoth Nexus and Blinkmoth Nexus for free, while killing Lingering Souls tokens and threats as diverse as Dark Confidant, Glistener Elf, Steel Overseer, and Vendilion Clique. Blocking vigilant creatures also becomes a much more dangerous proposition for opponents once an extra point of damage can be represented. The token is also black, which is an extra layer of insurance against protection effects like Apostle's Blessing.
The reason I eventually went up to three combined all this logic with a desire to draw them naturally on turn two against Sakura-Tribe Scout, Young Pyromancer, and mana elves.
I hope this helps!
Lavinia, Azorius Renegade is almost never game-breaking on her own, but does enough to delay Karn Liberated from Tron, Ad Nauseam from AdGrace, Whir of Invention from Whirza, Chord of Calling in Elves or Druid/Vizier combo, Past in Flames from Storm, and all the payoffs in Lotus Field combo to push those decks a turn or two up the curve on her own. She also embarrasses Delve, Cascade, Suspend, Hideaway, Convoke, Improvise, and many other cost-cheating mechanics which can generally trouble Emeria, and shuts off Pacts outright. Every extra land these decks have to play is a huge gain for white, as a colour, and she has enough incidental text to have applications against breakout and/or rogue strategies, covering corner cases and being recurred at leisure.
Blessed Alliance dovetails nicely from the discussion on Burn, so I will start with my take on Emeria's stance in the matchup. Emeria, the Sky Ruin rarely occurs early enough to matter in the absence of significant low-curve help, and I will typically sideboard one copy out if I have enough to bring in. Field of Ruin and Ghost quarter are on the lookout to cut off any splash colour if they have not yet cast a spell that their nonbasic land could represent, and Ghost Quarter in particular should be used on your own fetchlands aggressively to save a point of life. Otherwise, both pre- and post-sideboard, the puzzle is solved the same way; if they draw creatures, the odds of winning the game go up dramatically when blockers can turn them into blank draws. When their creatures have dealt ZERO damage by the final turn of a game, I am satisfied that I have put myself in the best possible position to win the match.
They will nearly always have time to play their entire hand, so I typically use Path to Exile as early and as often as possible on haste creatures. A single hit with Batterskull is very difficult to overcome, and I am happy even if Stoneforge Mystic dies immediately to a Lightning Bolt or Rift Bolt because the spells are the real battle here. I will also chump block with it quite frequently to extend the game if I am in position to hardcast Batterskull without it, since this prevents exposing anything to a value-added Searing Blaze or Searing Blood.
Post-sideboard, I take out Crucible of Worlds and all of the Wrath effects other than Settle the Wreckage (and maybe a single Wrath of God if I see them keep Eidolon of the Great Revel in for game two) for Celestial Purge, Blessed Alliance, Lone Missionary, Lavinia, Azorius Renegade, and Stonecloaker or Glen Elendra Archmage if I have them. The gameplan is the same as above: stop the haste creatures from getting in every single point of combat damage you can, and give them every incentive to use their burn on anything other than life total. I also take out all the gold 3-drops other than a lone Teferi, Time Raveler, if I have it, as a hedge against Ensnaring Bridge. Aura of Silence can also hit Eidolon while being recurred with Sun Titan, so if I don't happen to have a Teferi, an Archmage, or a D-Sphere, this is the most reasonable singleton to replace the already suboptimal Wrath of God mentioned above, but a random creature is better than everything but Teferi if I see nothing strange.
This is generally one of the matchups where I will sideboard in either Aven Mindcensor or Remorseful Cleric to get the Wraths out of my deck, since they have the option of stopping haste damage, and can also threaten to end the game if the opponent tries to stop interacting with the board. In this matchup, Emeria is still an excellent attrition deck, but they can sometimes choose to ignore the value we generate. It is therefore incumbent on the Emeria player to do everything possible to trade card-for-card. Lone Missionary is an absolutely invaluable tool on this front, because 4 life gains traction over their average draw of output of 3 damage, and forces them to have Boros Charm or Skullcrack to trade with it evenly. Even when they do, it still leaves behind a 2/1 body that can help your calculations on whether to try locking them under their own Eidolon of the Great Revel. This last strategy is a viable one to look out for if they do leave that card in, since its symmetrical effect leaves them powerless to remove it when it is opposed by a Wall of Omens or a Court Hussar. Given infinite time, either a Pilgrim's Eye or Mortarpod discarded to maximum hand size is sufficient to close out such a game when Emeria eventually gets online to recur a Sun titan, and Mistveil Plains will typically prompt a concession if two white permanents are already in play.
Blessed Alliance is (eventually) functionally identical to Lone Missionary, but offers both sideboard and timing flexibility. I am a fan of some amount of burst lifegain to bridge the gap before Batterskull hits, but one of these should be creature-based to force them to have Skullcrack in response to Sun Titan. If I were playing in a field where I expected Geist of Saint Traft out of Jeskai, plus a lot of Burn, I might choose to run 2 Lone Missionary and a Blessed Alliance in the sideboard. There was also a time when I ran 3 Lone Missionary in the maindeck, which turned Burn into as good a matchup as Jund, and maybe even better, but this was a heavy concession to make unless the rest of the field was decidedly aggro-centric. My current build has been good enough against burn generally that I would be willing to cut the Blessed Alliance at the moment, but since I have yet to play the matchup against a really good GP-level opponent while relying on the various Stoneforge Mystic dynamics, I have it included as extra coverage.
Was there anything else that anyone would like to have explained?
4 Stoneforge Mystic
4 Pilgrim's Eye
3 Court Hussar
2 Batterskull
3 Sun Titan
3 Mortarpod
2 Detention Sphere
1 Crucible of Worlds
3 Supreme Verdict
2 Wrath of God
1 Settle the Wreckage
4 Path to Exile
3 Emeria, The Sky Ruin
7 Plains
3 Field of Ruin
2 Ghost Quarter
1 Prairie Stream
1 Island
1 Mistveil Plains
4 Flooded Strand
2 Hallowed Fountain
3 Aven Mindcensor
1 Lone Missionary
1 Lavinia, Azorius Renegade
2 Pithing Needle
2 Celestial Purge
1 Blessed Alliance
1 Disenchant
1 Aura of Silence
And here is what it would look like for game 2 against a burn opponent who had shown nothing unusual:
4 Stoneforge Mystic
4 Pilgrim's Eye
3 Court Hussar
2 Batterskull
3 Sun Titan
3 Mortarpod
1 Detention Sphere
1 Settle the Wreckage
4 Path to Exile
2 Celestial Purge
1 Blessed Alliance
1 Lone Missionary
1 Lavinia, Azorius Renegade
2 Emeria, The Sky Ruin
7 Plains
3 Field of Ruin
2 Ghost Quarter
1 Prairie Stream
1 Island
1 Mistveil Plains
4 Flooded Strand
2 Hallowed Fountain
1 Detention Sphere
1 Crucible of Worlds
3 Supreme Verdict
2 Wrath of God
3 Remorseful Cleric
2 Pithing Needle
1 Disenchant
1 Aura of Silence
The curve drops two 3-drops and five 4-drops to swap in five 2-drops and three 3-drops here. The net effect is to go up to sixteen 2-mana plays from eleven, and up to nine 3-mana plays from eight. The instant-speed interaction also jumps from five to eleven cards, of which all but the Path to Exile effects can cleanly trade with a lethal Goblin Guide after allowing its trigger. Speaking of Path to Exile, the moment I feel that the ground is locked up with enough blockers that their path to victory is through direct damage alone, these should be used as Rampant Growth on every extra Germ token or irrelevant blocker to accelerate the lategame. Settle the Wreckage is harder to do this with, but can also have this mode with proper timing. Holding Lavinia, Azorius Renegade until a Rift Bolt is in suspend can be backbreaking, but must sometimes be weighed against delaying Skewer the Critics or blocking.
If room is required for one more advantageous component not mentioned here, a Sun Titan can also be trimmed to lower the curve even further, but Titan is typically good enough to provoke desperation plays from Burn. As a final tip, Emeria wants to encourage Burn to spend its removal on potential blockers, so if I do have an extra flash sequence to mess up combat, I try to make attacks and plays that appear to leave me exposed to an on-board Soul-Scar Mage or the like so that I can tempt them to kill the apparent lone line of defense. An infrequent interaction illustrating this is if I Path to Exile my own Wall of Omens to leave me with just a Court Hussar on defense, which might allow me to Celestial Purge their attacker if they spew a Shard Volley on it along with other spells with the expectation of recouping their losses in combat.
If any other card seems to require explanation, I would be happy to share the relevant features of its context.
The reasoning for card choices makes sense, and I agree with almost all of them. This is a tap out style deck that aims to play the long game. All cards should support that plan. I also dislike counterspells and like your sideboard a lot more. I think Damping Sphere is too good to pass right now and would include a few copies.
I have enjoyed Emeria always and play it now and then at the LGS. I went 4-0 last time with a lot of fun and grindy matches. I did not even have the SFM package lol.
I know the UW build is the traditional one and maybe the best one too. I have enjoyed playing the mono white version a little more and will continue testing with that.
My build included Ranger-Captain of Eos and Charming Prince. I like Thraben Inspector (too much) and have been playing it as a four of. Kami has also been good as a one of. It creates really awkward situations for the opponent. Now I want to try Giant Killer as the main one drop and maybe play one Thraben and one Kami.
I think Ranger-Captain of Eos is a great card. It might not work good enough on the traditional build, where you just don't have enough slots for it. It offers so much in one card that I don't think I can let it go.
Charming Prince felt good too. Scry was surprisingly useful ability to have. This might have to be cut though. Does it offer enough? On the empty board argument, it might not.
You are most welcome, I am glad you took something from my responses!
I think that the mono-white versions of the deck can come quite close in power level to the W/u versions in some respects, and I am certain that there is enough room to innovate the shell in that direction, but there is truly no replacement for Court Hussar at the moment. Aside from that, Detention Sphere and Supreme Verdict have at least rough approximations available to white. If you disregard those, the majority of the difference lies in Teferi, Time Raveler and the sideboard options right now.
With that being said, cards such as Brought Back and Hour of Revelation, not to mention Devout Lightcaster and Kor Firewalker, certainly become much more reliable when your manabase includes around 20 white sources, so I am certain that there are particularities that could give you an advantage in certain matchups. Looking across the entire format, however, I agree with the general consensus that as a competitive option W/u is better at covering all its bases.
Charming Prince struck me as a solid card, but it did not do as much as the other 2-mana options when card equity is the only thing that is evaluated. Although I am a fan of versatility, the design being balanced for two power meant that it was not able to make up for this fact for me. Again, different builds (perhaps using the green Renegade Rallier synergies) might be more in the market for this effect, but I was ultimately not.
When it comes to Ranger-Captain of Eos, the issue is slightly muddier. It is, in fact, a very strong card. Cards exist in context, though, so I can't simply say "it gains value" and leave it at that; in his case I have to consider the curve. Unfortunately, when I compare it to any other 3-drop, I can't justify playing it into a board that I will almost certainly have to wipe away completely myself within 2-3 turns, because the only way it can find me a land is by getting a Thraben Inspector.
If that is an effect that is already in demand within your deck, so much the better, and more power to you. I myself put a price on cycling that cannot exceed the 2 mana I would be willing to pay for a Wall of Omens. Anything costing 3 mana for a random card off the top has to solve another problem, and 4 mana is unrealistic enough that Solemn Simulacrum doesn't make the cut for me even though it does nearly everything Emeria wants to do. The six mana it costs for Ranger-Captain/Inspector/Clue activation wreaks havoc with the curve through the all-important Wrath turns, with no guarantee of success, and also requires additional slots of deck space which I simply cannot justify.
If I knew more about the particulars of your list, I might be able to say more, but I will leave it at that for now. It is entirely possible that your 3-mana plays can interact meaningfully enough with your 2's and your 4's that you get to run four-of Ranger-Captain of Eos and four-of Thraben Inspector with no downside. If you are not playing Wraths at all, perhaps Charming Prince has the deck equity available to flicker Solemn Simulacrum, in which case I would say that Giant Killer could indeed be fantastic. I assume you would only want a singleton, though, so maybe start testing there first, and then see if you would like more.
On one thing we can agree, though, Damping Sphere is a very good card. It feels almost like a colourless Blood Moon against Tron and Amulet Titan, and can randomly hose Lotus Field, Castle Garenbrig, Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx, and Storm while costing only two mana. I have run up to four in my sideboard in the past, and truly miss it at the moment, but it does next to nothing against Scapeshift so I have had to turn elsewhere for my current big-mana hate.
I hope this is helpful to you!
I LOVE Court Hussar. That is the reason to play the UW version and the card I miss most on mono white. Maybe Supreme Verdict is too important for the strategy to ignore. Death's Shadow is a real thing. My hope is that Giant Killer does some work there. Ranger-Captain of Eos can help a bit too. Many times they only have a few threats and tutor + sac enables you to use any removal you choose.
The more I think of it, Charming Prince will be cut for now as I try the SFM package. I will post a list later on, but now it is still a bit of a mess and I need to try how different cards feel.
Oh Solemn Simulacrum I have never liked. Too expensive. On the sideboard options Kor Firewalker is a reasonable option.
Could you post your list? I may be able to help with play patterns, Death's Shadow is usually an excellent matchup for Emeria. Perhaps things are different for mono-white, but I think that the tools should all be there for you to win already.
Looking forward to hearing from you!
i do not have enought time to answer and to put my analyse on my games but i reaaaally enjoy these discussions and my list is really improved now i think, because my curve and because every cards in my pack answering correctly to the 3 essential questions you find for us ! Congrats to you, we see the difference between pro player and amateurs like us
Be blessed !
are you french or canadian ?
I am very glad to hear that this discussion has been productive for you, and that you feel they have improved your list!
With regards to your flattering description of my status, I think I may have misled you somewhere. Qualifying for PTs and doing well at GPs still leaves a huge skill gap to the real professionals. Based on my results, at my best I could possibly have been called a semi-pro from the end of 2014 until 2017 when I went back to work on my Masters' degree.
As for your question on my identity; pourquoi pas les deux ? I am actually part of the Canadian Fransaskois community (french-speaking Saskatchewan population) based in Saskatoon. This stretches the descriptor of "French" quite a bit, but I hope you will allow it since it is technically true.
Thank you for your interest!
Manage to grab the cards I was missing to try this Emeria shell and gave it a spin yesterday. Made a couple of changes based on my usual meta, having quite a lot of burn and some flash and control decks. With that in mind I put 2 charming prince and 2 teferi, time raveler and took out 1 mortarpod, 1 pilgrims's eye, 1 court hussar and 1 wrath of god. I would very much like to know your guys opinions on the changes and if you would have done it based on the meta or stick to the version posted.
In the side the only change was the addition of 1 damping sphere Instead of 1 of the pithing needle, maybe due to past fears of titan and tron decks, which unfortunately, despite showing in the tournament I didn't get to play against and therefore was unable to test it.
First match was boros burn and I lost 2-0. Game 1 I basically did everything I could to survive and managed to put a batterskull on turn 5 but it was too late. On game 2 everything was under control but a skullcrack when I was going to gain some life with batterskull and a deflecting palm on sun titan back to back sealed the game. I did sideboard a bit wrongly not putting the aven mindcensors and instead leaving 3 wraths in cause I hadn't had the chance to read your answers yet so I look forward to playing burn again and trying it correctly. I would also like to know what you think of kor firewalker in the side depending on the prevalence of burn in the meta.
Second match was infect and I won 2-0. Mortarpod and teferi, time raveler were as expected MVP cards. Sideboarded in a pitching needle for possible teferi, time raveler in their side and blinkmoth nexus and blessed alliance, taking one titan and one batterskull out. Overall same thing and patiently awaiting the time to use my removals was key to winning the match.
Third match was mono white death and taxes. It was from a good friend of mine who helped me build the deck so he knows emeria inside and out, which makes playing tricky more difficult. I ended up winning 2-0 in a match up I think I was heavily favored. Game 1 was tricky with him playing turn 1 vial, turn 2 Thalia and turn 3 arbiter into ghost quarter 2 turns in a row, taking my blue sources away, but I managed to top deck an untapped blue source for court hussar which kicked me back into the game. Game 2 I brought in 1 pithing needle for vial, Gideon, ally of zendikar and eldrazi displacer and took out 1 mortarpod, and it was a very normal safe game with me controlling the board at all times.
Last match was mono red prowess and I lost 1-2. Overall I think we're favored in this match up, and game 1 I won dealing well with the creatures. Sideboarded in 2 celestial purge and 1 blessed alliance, and for some reason didn't put in lone missionary. Took out 1 mortarpod, 1 wrath of god (Which in hindsight I think was wrong as not seeing a wrath in game 3 is what cost me the game) and 1 crucible of worlds. Game 2 I died on turn 3 because of runaway steam-kin which got completely out of control while my opponent was storming off. Game 3 I think I was quite unlucky because I didn't see any titan or wrath and even removing 5 of my opponents creatures, he just repouplated the board with a volley of spells into bedlem reveler into more hasty swiftspears.
Overall I got a feel of the deck but need to play more to truly understand more of what you wrote. If your guys have any feedback I would appreciate it very much!
Good to hear you had a chance to try things out, but I think there must have been something going on with sequencing for you not to have gone 4-0 (or 3-1 on a very bad day) against the opposition you faced (AKA Burn, Infect, Taxes, and Prowess). I see that you affected the curve slightly with your substitutions, which probably influenced things. You essentially switched a 4 down for a 3, and a 3 down for a 2 - which is a good instinct - but you also put in two Charming Prince over a Court Hussar and a Pilgrim's Eye, which makes you vulnerable to gaps in your curve and exposes you to card loss in your own wraths.
To go a little further into this, I can accept cutting a Hussar for a Teferi, Time Raveler since on average he affects the board and stack better than a 1/3 vigilance while replacing himself on-demand, but I have NEVER cut a single Eye from the deck, except post-sideboard against Remand and Electrolyze or combo situations. It is too important for guaranteeing access to the fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth land - in decreasing order of importance. The fact that one of these became a creature that doesn't even replace itself when played on-curve against aggro is a significant downgrade, and has to be justified by the metagame. Going from 3 life to 6 with Charming Prince usually gains you a single turn against burn, which is insufficient payoff for the cost to the curve. In the same circumstance, going from 3 to 7 life with Lone Missionary demands both a Boros Charm PLUS an active source of white for them to keep pace, and therefore buys two full turns (on average).
I would say that if I was hedging for the metagame you described ("Lots of burn and flash"), I would instead have felt very comfortable cutting one Wrath of God and one Detention Sphere for the two Teferi, Time Raveler. The Lone Missionary replacing a maindeck Mortarpod is a tougher sell, but situationally justifiable over removing either the last remaining Detention Sphere or the singleton Crucible of Worlds. The call on which one would depend on whether Control was completely pushed out by the Burn and Flash decks, or is simply being tuned against it. I would probably have tried my hardest NOT to include Missionary maindeck, but ultimately cut the Mortarpod rather than lose access to the single copies of those effects if I were forced to choose from the three. With two Batterskull and four Stoneforge Mystic in the deck, though, I doubt the singleton would make enough of a difference to your game 1 win percentage to be worth the inclusion.
With regards to your sideboard changes, I never go below 2 Pithing Needle effects, because exile-based removal or incidental graveyard hate can cut off Sun Titan from recurring a singleton in the later stages against Prison or Tron. These cards often cost them a turn, though, which is why I am willing to expose the first copy to them in exchange for putting another land in play uninterrupted. With the maindeck having an extra lifegain spell, I would have cut the Blessed Alliance to fit in the Damping Sphere instead, and if Tron was truly a local menace I would play a second, then even a third copy over the third and second Aven Mindcensor, respectively. Any 3-1 split is better than a 2-2 split of these, but two mana is MUCH better than 3, and Mindcensor can be more easily recurred (Via Emeria) than a noncreature spell. Sphere does nothing against scapeshift, though, so use discretion on which way to hedge. It is overkill in my experience, but if you wanted to, I could see the Kor Firewalker replacing the Lavinia, Azorius Renegade (or the second Lone Missionary if you had the first maindecked) against base-Red decks attacking on the ground.
I must go to the university now, but I will try to do a breakdown of the matchups you described using the cards you had access to, which will follow up this post. It will also be accompanied by the list that I would have run as I have outlined here.
Talk to you soon!
4 Stoneforge Mystic
3 Pilgrim's Eye
2 Charming Prince
2 Teferi, Time Raveler
2 Court Hussar
2 Batterskull
3 Sun Titan
2 Mortarpod
2 Detention Sphere
1 Crucible of Worlds
3 Supreme Verdict
1 Wrath of God
1 Settle the Wreckage
4 Path to Exile
7 Plains
3 Field of Ruin
2 Ghost Quarter
1 Prairie Stream
1 Island
1 Mistveil Plains
4 Flooded Strand
2 Hallowed Fountain
3 Remorseful Cleric
3 Aven Mindcensor
1 Lone Missionary
1 Lavinia, Azorius Renegade
1 Pithing Needle
1 Damping Sphere
2 Celestial Purge
1 Blessed Alliance
1 Disenchant
1 Aura of Silence
For clarity's sake, I will assume the lists you faced will be identical to the top-placing list found on https://www.mtggoldfish.com/metagame/modern#paper.
Round 1: The counter-intuitive piece of advice that you mentioned, removing the wraths, affects your draws (and your average board states) a good deal. Extra instant-speed interaction is very helpful here, and even Remorseful Cleric becomes slightly less embarrassing to bring in once you realize that a clean path to victory is trading with every creature as cheaply as possible then cutting them off of every draw step you can. Given what you had, -3 Supreme Verdict, -1 Wrath of God, -1 Crucible of Worlds, -2 Detention Sphere, -1 Mortarpod, and -1 Emeria, the Sky Ruin would make room for + 3 Aven Mindcensor, +2 Celestial Purge, +1 Lavinia, Azorius Renegade, +1 Blessed Alliance, +1 Remorseful Cleric, and +1 Lone Missionary.
This is a fast enough matchup that running out of Stoneforge Mystic targets is vanishingly rare, and even if Mortarpod is a 2-drop, it doesn't really trade with anything until you have 4 mana, so removing two equipment is fine. All of the sweepers being gone does mean that an active Emeria is no longer a reuseable trigger for lifegain ETBs without your opponent playing poorly, though, so leave in 1 copy to tutor for when you need to re-establish your Lone Missionary loops if they stop attacking.
The Deflecting Palm scenario you mentioned can be avoided with pure patience, since it is often a telegraphed play. If you get the chance it can also be beaten by equipping the Sun Titan with a sacrifice ability before you attack, by having Teferi, Time Raveler in play, and by a good old-fashioned "Path to Exile my own creature in response". You can always refuse to attack as well, if you are in a position to wait on Ghost Quarter effects to tax their white mana, which you want to do anyway to eventually shut off Boros Charm and Lightning Helix.
Be aware that Sunbaked Canyon cracking in response to Field of Ruin activations will cause neither player to get a land. Try not to telegraph both this and Ghost Quarter until they are tapped low, because denying them every extra card is important while you are stabilizing. Often you will not have a choice on which land to play, though, so concern yourself more about how you will sequence the development of your own mana first. They can bring in Smash to Smithereens and both Searing Blood and Skullcrack if they see Stoneforge Mystic, typically bringing out their Eidolons and cutting Goblin Guide, then trimming singletons.
A corner-case interaction is using Celestial Purge to exile germ tokens, which can fizzle Helix and Blood, although unfortunately not Searing Blaze, which you should be aware is enabled by all our land-search effects. As you near Emeria, the Sky Ruin and Sun Titan, remember to start thinking about what they could have in their hand. They will typically be flush with land, so if they could cast their card profitably, they would have already. When they have had a card for several turns, you should respect their bluff even if you think it may be a land. Smash to Smithereens is a good card, but Batterskull can beat one with its own bounce ability if you have the time to be patient, and it is always your choice whether you ever have to put it into play. Overall, you should expose your curve to them more selectively than you would against any other deck, since they have no flexibility in trying to close the game, and must simply hope their good cards match up with yours. Think through the possible outcomes of your plays! The clock is your friend here; you will almost never be going to time.
Round 2: Infect is one of the best match-ups this deck has. It is very difficult for them to win through 4 colours' worth of creatures (counting Pilgrim's Eye), five functional Ghost Quarter effects, flying blockers, 1-mana instant-speed removal, Teferi, Time Raveler, on-board pings, and Supreme Verdict. If I make it past turn 4, I believe I have never lost a single game. Their best way to win is by going all-in on a turn-2 Glistener Elf attack, which we should discourage by representing Path to Exile with any untapped white source on turn one. The times when they have exactly 10 Infect damage line up a non-zero amount with the times we DO have the answer at the ready, but on of the only official match losses I have had to the deck was a "good beats" story from back when they had Gitaxian Probe, and had the turn 2 kill in both games after a free Peek. These days, it takes a good bit more bravery to pull the trigger.
The sweepers are completely unavoidable for them in game 1, barring a rogue maindeck Spell Pierce on specifically Wrath of God, so you should essentially never open the door to that interaction when you have so many other good options. This is the reason the card comes out in games 2 and 3. Allow them to attack first, and use removal on their end step to avoid losing games needlessly to extra damage from Blossoming Defense and Vines of Vastwood. The exception is with Settle the Wreckage, which you should cast after damage has been dealt while their creatures are technically still "attackers" in the combat step. That way, they cannot use countermagic as better than a 1-for-1 even if they have it.
Inkmoth Nexus and Pendelhaven are ways for them to work around Supreme Verdict and Mortarpod, respectively, so Field of Ruin and Ghost Quarter are important to find with Court Hussar. Their activation should follow the same principles as above, except when you would like to force them to expend extra mana by having to animate their nexus again when they might have Vines or Defenses. The wasteland effects can team up with other cards against Inkmoth Nexus to act as a "double removal spell" when you want them to dump their hand on an attack that is doomed to fail. They will invariably build up many cards between threats, but none of them have haste so you can safely ping, Path, or Wasteland their new attacker on their turn, then untap and Supreme Verdict if it survived.
With what you had, I would have removed both Batterskull, the Wrath of God, and two Charming Prince, for Pithing Needle, Lavinia, Azorius Renegade, Blessed Alliance, Disenchant, and Aura of Silence. If they are not on the Become Immense plan, one of the two Batterskull can stay in over Lavinia to give a faster option for closing the game, but in any event Stoneforge Mystic is mostly just a way to get access to the best card in the matchup: Mortarpod. Blocking their creature, then pinging it after you are certain it cannot get through for damage is good enough on its own, but after that it turns every creature you draw into almost a free Terminate. If you like, you can also bring in 2 Aven Mindcensor for 2 Detention Sphere, but I like making sure to cover my bases against strange sideboard plans when almost nothing else can go wrong. We have over three times as many answers as they have threats, and so choosing the best one to cut off their best outs to the current situation is likely your most difficult decision.
Their countermagic is generally completely outclassed by Supreme Verdict and Teferi, Time Raveler, and so you should use this recommended sideboard plan to be ready for them to bring in literally anything they have access to in a desperate bid to win any post-sideboard games. Teferi in particular is almost unfair, as a safety blanket made of reinforced titanium in a matchup that is already abysmal for them. Disenchantcan kill both Inkmoth Nexus and Spellskite, while covering against Shapers' Sanctuary or graveyard hate. I believe they can also do the trick with two Spellskite where they bounce the target of a spell between the two to draw a dozen or more cards, so make sure they are not trying to set that up. Aura of Silence is simply a better Disenchant that they can't even counter, but mind that you use Ghost Quarter and not it if you want to kill a Nexus. They can redirect Shatter effects to their 0/4, but not Strip Mine.
Pithing Needle should start by stopping them from animating Nexi so that Supreme Verdict does not open the door to a counterattack, but you should still use Field of Ruin to get them off the table in case they draw a Nature's Claim. Speaking of Disenchant effects, you should avoid giving them any value on theirs by stacking the ETB trigger of Detention Sphere, then killing it with Aura of Silence to trigger the "leaves the battlefield" ability so that their cards are permanently exiled. This is best used with a Sun Titan in hand to bring back the Aura of Silence tax effect as soon as possible. Finally, Lavinia, Azorius Renegade counters each Mutagenic Growth that they pay life for, but you will probably never get more than one this way. Her true purpose is to make Become Immense completely unworkeable, although she also counters the rebound of Distortion Strike.
Round 3: Death and Taxes is another extremely good pairing, since they are a creature deck with no real late-game reach, but they can sometimes have synergies that will force tempo loss until losing is a real possiblity. Thalia, Guardian of Thraben is particularly good at messing up the curve if our draw relies on either Path to Exile or a sweeper. This is another matchup where extra copies of Mortarpod and Pithing Needle in the 75 cover a lot of ground. The main dynamic of Wall of Omens forcing them to overextend into Wrath of God is still the defining feature of this matchup, though, and they are stuck ramping us with every one of the atrocious maindeck Path to Exile that they draw, while ours are some of the best cards we have against them. Locking them out of colourless sources is sometimes possible, and if they are W/b it often leads to running them out of basic lands in any case, so if they do not have Aether Vial their draws can be very difficult to sequence well.
Their utility lands are kept in check by Field of Ruin, but their Aven Mindcensor and particularly their Leonin Arbiter create strange wrinkles. The Arbiter's tax on library searches is symmetrical, and so it often grants Path to Exile and Ghost Quarter effects some extra power. Timing your fetchlands and deck thinning is often critical around an Aether Vial at 2 or 3 counters; the correct sequence is frequently to wait until they activate it, so that you can safely search in response when they have it tapped. There is usually no rush to thin the deck in these games, so assume all search effects are shut off by a Mindlock Orb for your fetchlands if you can, and wait to draw your mana naturally whenever you suspect foul play.
Pilgrim's Eye is sorcery-speed, and therefore much weaker to this angle of attack, but trades cleanly with x-1's and fliers under most circumstances anyway, so they are a good way to check if the coast is clear. If they are playing the Eldrazi package, Thought-Knot Seer with Eldrazi Displacer is sometimes awkward, but overall they match up poorly with Supreme Verdict, so unless they can take a stabilizing play away, the inevitability is still ours. Mistveil Plains cannot be taken, and neither can Emeria, the Sky Ruin, so as long as you have a graveyard you can beat the "lock" provided that you have so much as a Wall of Omens with a Mortarpod on it and a Stoneforge Mystic. If you ever get into an attrition game where this is your only out, start building up only lands in your hand until you have seven of them. The eighth land you find gets discarded to maximum hand size, and the Mistveil Plains returns it to your (empty) library so that they can never force you to draw your deck while Emeria will continue to trigger every upkeep for an eventual Mortarpod win.
Post sideboard, this scenario becomes more likely if they bring in Ensnaring Bridge to disrupt Sun Titan, but unless they can leverage Rest in Peace as a tempo play, they put themselves down cards for no value against a vigilant threat that still dominates their entire board. I would have removed the 2 Charming Prince and the Settle the Wreckage for the Pithing Needle, the Disenchant, and the Aura of Silence to manage Aether Vial, and because they are liable to cast Thought-Knot Seer pre-combat if we rely on Settle as a sweeper. Stoneforge Mystic and Batterskull are a winning threat, but one that is vulnerable to their taxing of search effects and their hand disruption, plus some artifact removal. Overall, their most disruptive draws are required to stop the raw card quality from becoming a telling factor, but their disruptive creatures are also the most vulnerable to Wall of Omens. A high basic land count for Emeria is an advantage long-term, and as long as the basic Island is still accessible, the rock-solid manabase should lead to a win.
Round 4: The advice given for Boros Burn all applies here, but with the tempo play of Lava Dart available, their interaction affords slightly more flexibility. Board states are both more relevant and less reliable, so the decision to try to lock them under Eidolon of the Great Revel can come quite early. The same sideboarding as before applies, except that the Remorseful Cleric can remain a Wrath of God since they cannot sideboard out all of their creatures, and it requires less than Supreme Verdict to cast. Note that running them out of basic lands is still vaguely possible, but far less likely to be relevant in time. Lavinia, Azorius Renegade has an additional card to stop in the flashback of Lava Dart, but note that a spell countered by her ability still triggers Prowess. Pilgrim's Eye is the most vulnerable play for them to enable tempo loss with, and so it is important to sequence other 2+ toughness plays first unless trying to provoke a committed attack from the opponent. This is generally a much better matchup for Emeria than the heavier Burn versions, since they have more creatures and are forced to cast their spells to gain advantage with Prowess. Settle the Wreckage is accordingly the next most important card after Lone Missionary to look for with Court Hussar.
My advice breaks down a little here, since I have never played against the version you mentioned, but at 2 mana both Bedlam Reveler and Runaway Steam-Kin are highly vulnerable to Celestial Purge and Path to Exile, which I can only assume is excellent for Emeria. Reveler's high CMC means that they will have to spend a card to kill Lavinia, and Steam-kin is even a 1/1 some of the time against the Mortarpod we would still be leaving in otherwise! I see both Blood Moon and Leyline of the Void taking up sideboard space for them on the MTGGoldfish stock lists. If they should happen to put either of those enchantments into play against you, give them a mental "thank you" for the reprieve, and ignore the useless card they have brought to the table. They are terrible card disadvantage for them, and the sideboard equity they demand leaves them no access to Searing Blood and Searing Blaze. Their artifact hate being Abrade is much better for us than Smash to Smithereens is against Batterskull. The deck appears to have traded off some speed for both explosiveness and resilience, but the explosiveness comes later on their curve and their resilience is irrelevant when all Emeria cares about is not dying, so they are at a distinct strategic disadvantage against us compared to other versions of the deck. If their explosiveness did turn out to be a difference-maker in the match, perhaps Damping Sphere could come in, but I would have to play the matchup to know for certain.
Based on my most recent post's advice, I myself would have played this 75 instead as a more efficient way to do the things you wanted to do initially:
4 Stoneforge Mystic
4 Pilgrim's Eye
3 Court Hussar
2 Teferi, Time Raveler
2 Batterskull
3 Sun Titan
2 Mortarpod
1 Lone Missionary
1 Detention Sphere
1 Crucible of Worlds
3 Supreme Verdict
1 Wrath of God
1 Settle the Wreckage
4 Path to Exile
7 Plains
3 Field of Ruin
2 Ghost Quarter
1 Prairie Stream
1 Island
1 Mistveil Plains
4 Flooded Strand
2 Hallowed Fountain
3 Remorseful Cleric
3 Aven Mindcensor
1 Lone Missionary
1 Lavinia, Azorius Renegade
2 Pithing Needle
2 Celestial Purge
1 Damping Sphere
1 Disenchant
1 Aura of Silence
Though I would not find it necessary or desireable myself, Kor Firewalker could be a substitute for Lavinia, Azorius Renegade. But matchups are not guaranteed, and I typically tune for the field instead of a specific enemy, unless my deck has an inherently fast clock that can be disrupted by only a small percentage of opponents, or some other overwhelming advantage that allows me to focus on specifics. The reality with Emeria is much more that of a small advantage that only consistency can press, and I treat the deck accordingly. If I had to include an ETB lifegain trigger in the deck out of consideration for several lists that attack my life total in many different ways, that would be perhaps the most reasonable time to call on Charming Prince to substitute for Lone Missionary, because it might not cost you as much if you happened to draw the latter when you never faced Burn at all. At that point, though, things quickly become speculative and inconsistent.
This is the definition of the Whack-A-Mole problem I had mentioned in an earlier post; it is a possible +5% edge in a single matchup for a possible -2% edge in several others. The tiebreaker is that, even in the cases when Charming Prince does what we want, he still does no more than repeat what the deck already does a little more explosively, with the exception of the lifegain trigger. Spending a card to flicker something doesn't usually win a game on its own unless we are already in good shape, and if you have smoothed every rough edge out of your curve the scry 2 is also unlikely to affect your keep or mulligan decisions. Since we are therefore comparing just the life aspect of the cards, the math for Lone Missionary is simple: 4 is greater than 3. If you absolutely must make maindeck concessions to a matchup, then all else being equal I would rather take the +10% option against them since everything has a chance to cost me elsewhere. I suppose, though, that this might be just my personal preference again.
Hopefully this has been helpful, although if you had more details on specific situations (recording the board states and graveyards from the losing games, for example) I could reconstruct the matches far more accurately for the purposes of giving advice.
Good luck in your next outing!
After considerable reflection, I didn't want to leave the list that ended the previous post up on its own merits, in case people though that I was recommending it. That list is a meta call, and in the end I cannot stand behind it. Here is what I would run instead at a local tournament:
4 Stoneforge Mystic
4 Pilgrim's Eye
3 Court Hussar
1 Teferi, Time Raveler
2 Batterskull
3 Sun Titan
3 Mortarpod
2 Detention Sphere
1 Crucible of Worlds
3 Supreme Verdict
1 Wrath of God
1 Settle the Wreckage
4 Path to Exile
7 Plains
3 Field of Ruin
2 Ghost Quarter
1 Prairie Stream
1 Island
1 Mistveil Plains
4 Flooded Strand
2 Hallowed Fountain
3 Remorseful Cleric
2 Aven Mindcensor
1 Damping Sphere
1 Lone Missionary
1 Lavinia, Azorius Renegade
2 Pithing Needle
2 Celestial Purge
1 Blessed Alliance
1 Disenchant
1 Aura of Silence
Essentially, the maindeck Lone Missionary does not do enough in the dark. Right now, in an open field, it should be a Mortarpod - unless there is a very good reason for it to be otherwise. I am also less inclined to give up the second Detention Sphere, since the tempo aspect of Teferi, Time Raveler is less relevant than the average length of time that threats are contained for, but this is an extremely close call. I think that right now, on the balance, I would be happier drawing 2 Sphere than 2 Teferi, but overall happiest if I drew 1 of each.
In the sideboard, the Blessed Alliance is therefore reinstated, and I have put in the Damping Sphere over one Aven Mindcensor so that anyone looking to try the deck has access to every effect they may need as a clue for how to play specific matchups. Using the 75 cards posted here, there should always be a legitimate chance of winning any game of Modern - regardless of pairings.
If, after having played a match against a given deck, you do not at least feel like you understand where a matchup can be pressured, please let me know. I will respond with the way I would approach things, and adjustments can be made based off the exchange.
May all of this be helpful to you.
-Stéphane Gérard
That said, I'm running a list just like the one you posted with the exception of having and extra Teferi instead of a detention sphere!
What I'm finding hard with the deck is the sideboard. I know what things to put in but I'm left always iffy on what to take out.
For example against ponza and amulet titan. Assume that the list don't have much variance from what is shown on mtggoldfish. Could you explain how you would sideboard in these match ups and why?
Once again thanks for all the help and hope to post some results soon!
So your list is the following, then:
4 Stoneforge Mystic
4 Pilgrim's Eye
3 Court Hussar
2 Teferi, Time Raveler
2 Batterskull
3 Sun Titan
3 Mortarpod
1 Detention Sphere
1 Crucible of Worlds
3 Supreme Verdict
1 Wrath of God
1 Settle the Wreckage
4 Path to Exile
7 Plains
3 Field of Ruin
2 Ghost Quarter
1 Prairie Stream
1 Island
1 Mistveil Plains
4 Flooded Strand
2 Hallowed Fountain
3 Remorseful Cleric
2 Aven Mindcensor
1 Damping Sphere
1 Lone Missionary
1 Lavinia, Azorius Renegade
2 Pithing Needle
2 Celestial Purge
1 Blessed Alliance
1 Disenchant
1 Aura of Silence
Assuming that, and going off of the top-placing MTGgoldfish lists as you suggested, I would consider both R/G Ponza and Amulet Titan to be poor matchups - especially pre-sideboard. They can both be conquered in the same way, however, and the trick to both lists is to lean into their disadvantages as hard as possible. It is somewhat like reeling in a fish that is too strong for the rod you have, because if they are prepared to do their thing early enough, their best draws beat our best draws almost every time. If those decks were unavoidable, and you still wanted to play Emeria, I would change the sideboard slightly to improve your chances (but again, not too much, because of the Whack-A-Mole issue). The true percentages are close, though, and if the pilot is sub-optimal or has a poor draw, I find both of these are actually very winnable.
Against Ponza, the recent banning of Mycosynth Lattice removes a hugely important aspect of the game dynamics, and affects play patterns a lot. It may actually be a positive matchup now, since their best draws are so inconsistent. I would have to test to see how much, and what they replace the card with, but its departure will almost certainly improve the matchup significantly. My confidence intervals on these changes are very low in consequence, but what I have done in the past is to remove the 3 Supreme Verdict, 2 of the Court Hussar, and the Teferi, Time Raveler (two in your case) to reduce my reliance on the blue mana they usually attack first, and the Wrath Of God to make them work harder through our blockers, and then bring in the 2 Pithing Needle, the 2 Celestial Purge, the Lone Missionary, the Lavinia, Azorius Renegade, the Disenchant and the Aura of Silence. Their land destruction has to happen at specific times in the early game to be truly backbreaking, so the Lavinia and the Naturalize effects can join the Pithing Needle and Mortarpod to stop their Arbor Elf and Utopia Sprawl from accelerating consistently. Ignore Blood Moon whenever you can until you are ready to take over, it is usually easy to do so when you only require basic Plains for 57 out of the 60 cards now in your deck.
Bloodbraid Elf is good at compounding advantages, but Wall of Omens is excellent at holding the body back, so their Cascades have to be very strong to gain ground on stable boards. Batterskull is a must-answer threat for them, and since I have not played the matchup since Stoneforge Mystic has been added, I believe that their Pillage will have to be held for it more often (which should again be very good news overall). I have had to face different finishers than the top list I found on MTGgoldfish, so things may be different if you see Stormbreath Dragon (in which case I sadly would have to cut the last Court Hussar to keep in Wrath of God), but generally Batterskull on a Pilgrim's Eye will eventually outclass all of their creature finishers. On its own, the equipment already trades for everything but Inferno Titan.
Path to Exile is fantastic, in both modes (removal or ramp), but try to use it on them only after they are out of their "explosive" phase, once they have likely cast their best cards. 24 lands and a Crucible of Worlds plus fourPilgrim's Eye will eventually get us out of trouble, so even if their Stone Rain will hurt, ultimately it puts them down a card for nothing if the game lasts long enough. When both decks have 5 or 6 mana, we can match them play-for-play, and they are much less threat-dense than Emeria so dealing with their recurring card advantage is the priority in this next phase of the matchup. Celestial Purge pulls double duty here, since it is a relatively clean answer to Chandra, Torch of Defiance. Tireless Tracker will usually only get a card or two before we draw a Path, which means that Karn, the Great Creator is their best chance to steal games when manabases can no longer be breakpoints.
Pithing Needle can, as mentioned before, name Arbor Elf because untapping a land is not technically a "mana ability", but this is an awful long-term play. It should name Karn first to avoid a whole Pandora's Box of potential sideboard scenarios, then Chandra, but that rule gets bent quite often to answer the problems at hand. Of relevance, "Clue" is not a valid card name for the Needle, but the graveyard ability of Seasoned Pyromancer is. Use this information to make your decisions if it is ever relevant. Detention Sphere is fairly good here, and so is Aura of Silence, but use them together to permanently exile things once you are getting close to Sun Titan mana. This way you can minimize you exposure to sideboarded Destructive Revelry and friends.
Finally, remember that Mortarpod grants the ability to the creature it is equipped to, and so the germ still blocks while killing Arbor Elf, even through Karn's Null Rod effect. The ping helps keep loyalties low, but try to get one equipped to a Wall of Omens before the ability to move it around is shut off. An 0/5 is surprisingly difficult for them to get through on the ground, and if they ever try to kill anything with Bonecrusher Giant, you can use Paths, Pings, or Disenchants to fizzle the target and deny them the 4/3 body. Their Basic Mountain count is sometimes extremely low on the Red end of the spectrum, so if they do not have Blood Moon it is actually Emeria that has a more relevant mana-denial plan through Ghost Quarter and Field of Ruin, which can both knock them off of RR for a few turns (though multiple Simian Spirit Guide can eventually give them a Chandra, Torch of Defiance to unlock things).
I have a soccer game to go to, but that advice is the beginning of the plan against both decks. I will have to give details and get into play patterns later.
Good luck if you have to play against them before I do so!
In game 1, we have a fair amount of interaction for the one-shot Primeval Titan kills in Path to exile plus Ghost Quarter, and later on withField of Ruin and Settle the Wreckage, so they are on their backup plan very early on. This is the more threatening avenue, and involves grinding card advantage by continually bouncing Tolaria West with Simic Growth Chamber to set up a stream of Titans that continuously trigger Field of the Dead. Their manabase is very greedy, so games can often hinge on which lands they are forced to play to get up and running. If they expose their 1 maindeck Field of the Dead too early, that is a huge piece of their gameplan to eliminate. Slayers' Stronghold and Vesuva are also high-priority targets, and Bojuka Bog can also eventually be relevant, but the real calculations only begin with those if they manage to get a Tolaria West back to their hand. This opens up Pacts, and therefore more Titan triggers, which leads to even more decision trees which all depend on the board state. Try to prioritize an active Ghost Quarter effect to prevent this by killing the Transmute land while the bounce trigger is on the stack, but know that they are also playing the Ghost Quarter game (both mentally, and with their own literal copy). They typically have 3 or fewer basics, though, so be aggressive with these where you can.
Post board, things are just as murky, if not more so. Pithing Needle has an abundance of targets, but common ones are both the Transmute on their 2 or 3 Tolaria West, and the 1 or 2 Engineered Explosives which they are often sent to fetch. Tectonic Edge or Ghost Quarter are also possible names (the latter remembering that the effect is symmetrical), and Sakura-Tribe Scout is again, not a mana ability. Note that they will probably have access to 1 more Field of the Dead after sideboarding. Generally, ignore their snake if you can, since their explosiveness is usually much less relevant post-board, but instant-speed bouncelands can be a headache for Field of Ruin so at least 1 Mortarpod always stays in. Damping Sphere is excellent in many ways here since it often cuts them off of several colours in their bouceland manabase in addition to severely inhibiting the quantity of mana they can produce. Aven Mindcensor is the nearest thing to an "easy mode" card for Emeria in the matchup, and it is often difficult for them to deal with flying creatures, so it is almost realistic to expect the bird wizard to go all the way on his own. Generally, he needs some support and so this is not true, but the fact that he sometimes pecks for the full 20 unassisted should tell you how valuable his effect is.
The Disenchant effects are generally aimed at Amulet of Vigor, but Aura of Silence also has very strange interactions with Engineered Explosives. They can announce X (as a cost) to be 0, but they must pay at least 2 mana for it due to the tax effect of the Aura. This is sometimes added to by Damping Sphere such that they literally have to spend 3 or more mana to get it into play, and at that point it may not be able to kill the Pithing Needle they are aiming for. Killing colourless mana sources makes this especially tricky for them to play around, but since Damping Sphere gives them several free sources in the first place, that is often inadviseable. The trick with Detention Sphere and its ETB ability is relevant here as well, since they often have Krosan Grip or Beast Within to get their cards back, but having the Aura sit in play is quite valuable in this matchup. Lavinia, Azorius Renegade is also very good here, even in the lategame, since she first forces them to play somewhat fair, then counters Pacts for the remainder of the game. (This is unless they are able to awkwardly play a spell into an onboard Damping Sphere first, using its tax effect to spend at least one mana on their "free" Summoner's Pact, but this makes their tutored Titan cost a minimum of 8 mana, in addition to the 1+? they already paid. Because of this interaction, though, I would try to use Teferi to bounce the Damping Sphere if I was starting to rely on Lavinia.)
There are also sometimes openings to knock them off of the ability to pay for Pacts for free wins, which means I pay exceptionally close attention to their lands. Usually, their diverse array of land-based threats makes this a challenging prospect, but as mentioned before, their manabase is built about as sturdily as a Jenga tower. The most common feature of all these games is that you must keep track of a great deal of variables, including the numbers of each Pact and Titan you have dealt with. Knowing how many threats are left to them is very important, since once their Titans are gone the deck is just a pile of random land-based synergy which Crucible of Worlds and Sun Titan will eventually grind away to powder. Ramunap Excavator is an avenue for them to rebuild, but Path to Exile steps in there as well to shut the card down relatively easily if that is their only plan. Mistveil Plains does a lot of work in the longer games here by recycling non-permanents in between shuffles, leading to a higher density of interactive spells as the manabase begins to expand out of the 2-4 mana "danger" range. Settle The Wreckage is a very important effect to keep access to through Bojuka Bog with Mistveil, because it is virtually always a clean answer to both a single Titan and a horde of zombies. A huge advantage over Scapeshift is that they have no fetchlands, so it is possible to see everything coming once Slayers' Stronghold is under control.
I think that is it for now, I hope it satisfies your desire for knowing which cards to watch out for.
Good luck at your event!
Here it is so far
Maindeck: 60
Creature: 23
1 Kami of False Hope
4 Thraben Inspector
3 Charming Prince
4 Wall of Omens
4 Flickerwisp
4 Ranger-Captain of Eos
3 Sun Titan
Instant // Sorcery: 10
4 Path to Exile
2 Winds of Abandon
2 Wrath of God
2 Hour of Revelation
Enchantment: 3
3 Birth of Meletis
Manabase: 24
2 Blast Zone
3 Emeria, the Sky Ruin
4 Field of Ruin
15 Snow-Covered Plains
Sideboard: 15
1 Ghost Quarter
1 Burrenton Forge-Tender
1 Hope of Ghirapur
4 Remorseful Cleric
2 Stony Silence
2 Damping Sphere
1 Sorcerous Spyglass
2 Generous Gift
1 Crucible of Worlds
I've just started delving back into modern again so I'm still rusty but so far I've played against Burn, GDS, Ponza, Dredge x 2, and Soulherder. I won against one of each but lost against in my second dredge matchup. My suggestion if you're worried about winning that matchup and are playing RCoE would be to add a Burrenton Forge-Tender to the maindeck. The only way that dredge can win after you've established a Kami of False Hope lock is to burn you out with a big Conflagrate. Plus it'll hedge against burn, which is never a bad thing.
On another note my match with Soulherder was a lot of fun, we're both grindy decks with some graveyard synergies but I've found Emeria Control is favored. This is because while Emeria Control can't quite match their velocity early, their engine requires a good board presence and we play wrath effects.
I had seen The Birth of Meletis in the spoilers and had, in fact, brewed up a list with strong similarities to yours over the 75. The card even pushed me over my self-imposed threshold of 13 advantageous plays that cost less than two for the conditional inclusion of Flickerwisp. The enchantment being immune to typical removal was the tipping point on that front, so we'll have to see. Here was my take:
4 Thraben Inspector
4 Wall of Omens
3 The Birth of Meletis
3 Charming Prince
2 Brought Back
1 Winds of Abandon
3 Pilgrim's Eye
3 Generous Gift
2 Filigree Familiar
1 Flickerwisp
3 Sun Titan
2 Hour of Revelation
14 Plains
2 Mistveil Plains
4 Emeria, The Sky Ruin
4 Field of Ruin
1 Hour of Revelation
1 Stonecloaker
1 Crucible of Worlds
1 Ghost Quarter
4 Ranger-Captain of Eos
3 Remorseful Cleric
1 Burrenton Forge-Tender
1 Hex Parasite
1 Hope of Ghirapur
1 Kami of False Hope
The Hour of Revelation seeming so strong and so easy to cast in this version made me want an extra copy, and the ability to instant-speed Vindicate lands at a whim with Generous Gift made me much more inclined to increase their value plays in Filigree Familiar and Solemn Simulacrum. The idea of being able to cantrip off of both the Planar Cleansing and the Beast Within was too much to resist, and this in turn made me want to diversify my flash plays, which led to Brought Back finding its way into the mix.
If you want my take on the card philosophy for why Ranger-Captain of Eos and Flickerwisp generally only fit in the absence of sweepers for this archetype, and hence why the sideboard package is the way it is, please feel free to look at my first posts on page 65 of this thread, where I made the case against the inclusion of the cards (with some success, I think).
Overall, the main advantage of this version over U/W is the cleanest manabase possible, and so I feel it may be possible to put in the 4th Emeria for consistency. This is a noticeably different direction to the other builds on here so far, due mostly to the presence of Hour of Revelation, but I think it may have an even bigger edge in aggro and creature matchups, if that is possible. Barring the land destruction package it will still suffer just as much against combo, though, and so in all likelihood lists such as this will just be a fun alternative. The default build that I have found to be the most competitive in large tournaments (and will assume so going forward unless others wish to report better results) is currently still the following:
4 Stoneforge Mystic
4 Pilgrim's Eye
3 Court Hussar
1 Teferi, Time Raveler
2 Batterskull
3 Sun Titan
3 Mortarpod
2 Detention Sphere
1 Crucible of Worlds
3 Supreme Verdict
1 Wrath of God
1 Settle the Wreckage
4 Path to Exile
7 Plains
3 Field of Ruin
2 Ghost Quarter
1 Prairie Stream
1 Island
1 Mistveil Plains
4 Flooded Strand
2 Hallowed Fountain
3 Remorseful Cleric
2 Aven Mindcensor
1 Damping Sphere
1 Lone Missionary
1 Lavinia, Azorius Renegade
2 Pithing Needle
2 Celestial Purge
1 Blessed Alliance
1 Disenchant
1 Aura of Silence
The tightrope to be walked is so subtle that things could easily change as Theros; Beyond Death begins to affect the average Grand Prix scene. I have recently been asked to give my opinions on the matchup against Ponza, for example, and I had to admit that my advice might completely change depending on what they replaced the Mycosynth Lattice in the sideboard with since that card's banning. I have a very strong suspicion that the matchup is now favoured for Emeria, since they no longer have a clean sequence that can both lock out and trump Emeria, the Sky Ruin. Were you able to determine the replacement(s) your opponent ran, and was your feeling in the matchup in general indeed more positive?
Hoping to hear back from you soon,
-Stéphane Gérard
I've played with 4 emeria before, but was often drawing multiple before I had the 7 plains required. Usually 1 active emeria is enough to take over games. I also despise tapped lands, nothing feels worse than drawing them when you need to curve into a wrath, or sun titan.
The ponza matchup was fine, I saw Utopia Sprawl, Arbor Elf, Pillage, Acid Moss, CToD, Tireless Tracker, and Inferno Titan. BoM and Flickerwisp beat them on it's own.
How is Brought Back working for you?
Has anyone tested the heliod ballista combo?If so what do you think of it?