So, magic is going from having standard be 24 months long before roation and looking like:
Set 1a, set 2a, set 3a, core, set 1b, set 2b, set 3b
to:
Set 1a, set 2a, set 1b, set 2b, set 1c, set 2c.
So that means the impact on us:
No more core sets (less reprints?)
higher level of powered card (less "power" more complexity I mean, which is good for us)
Less time on mechanics (less cards with said mechanics, aka, if theros block had X amount of heroic cards over 3 sets, this will have less than X over 2 sets)
Less "standard time" meaning powerful cards will be in the standard less time (does that mean we get more power as it effect standard for less time, so they would be willing to push it?)
Over all, this is a big change. While it effects standard more than us, obviously, the cards we inevitably receive is filtered through standard.
Given that reprints tend not be needed in Standard, especially "aggressive" reprints, this probably speaks to reprints done mostly for Modern. Or, at least, to benefit both Standard and Modern.
But 2016 will be the last of the Core Sets if I read the article correctly. Does this mean the next core set will be chalk full of Modern usable cards, or that the new two set blocks will be able to have more powerful Modern re prints due to the faster rotation? This would keep the problem cards from warping the format due to the fast rotations, old issues phase out, and new answers come in. I am very interested to see what this does to MTG and what it means for Modern. It also somewhat explains the original Pro Tour set up. With so many changes over the same year the format should look different each time. I don't feel like this was a good reason to completely exclude Modern from the Pro Tour, but at least it makes more sense now.
Since ~50% more fresh content comes through Standard with the block change - it makes Modern an even faster growing format in terms of strategic options.
You don't call "dying to removal" if the removal is more expensive in resources than the creature. If you have to spend BG (Abrupt Decay), or W + basic land (PtE) to remove a 1G, that is not "dying to removal". Strictly speaking Goyf dies to removal, but actually your removal is dying to Goyf.
Which will be good from Wizards stand point. I think they would rather the meta be swingy as opposed to the slow meta movement we have now. I'm curious to what reprints (that aren't yet in Modern) will they will give us, and what new cards they plan on printing to make Modern a faster meta format.
Brief metagame update from data gathered between 7/14 and 9/2.
As of now, here are the Proven/"Tier 1" decks in the format. This is using the 3+ criteria, which is what we will be using for the foreseeable future:
Melira Pod
Affinity
Burn
BG Rock
UR Twin
Jund
Scapeshift
UWR Control
Storm
RUG Twin
Established is a lot bigger, so you will have to look at the spreadsheet to see what decks are making the cut right now. Some notable highlights are below:
UWR Delver moved up to Established! Thanks, GP Kobe
UB Tezzeret moved up to Established! Thanks again, GP Kobe
Griselbrand and 8Rack will probably be staying in Established
Nykthos Green, Cruel Control, Assault Loam, and UW Midrange will probably be moving back to Creation
4C Gifts, Deadguy Ale, and BW TOkens will remain on Second Chance Policy (they have 1 quarter to shape up or ship out)
For Deck Creation, we will be stickying the 4 decks that had the best overall performance in the previous quarter, but that did not quite make it into Established. Then we would also be stickying the 10 most popular (as defined by views/posts) threads in Creation. I'm not 100% sure what those are going to be in this quarter.
Which will be good from Wizards stand point. I think they would rather the meta be swingy as opposed to the slow meta movement we have now. I'm curious to what reprints (that aren't yet in Modern) will they will give us, and what new cards they plan on printing to make Modern a faster meta format.
Easy. Reprints not in yet: Pillage, Legends land cycle besides Pendelhaven
I think an uninhibited tectonic edge might be a bit too strong. As it is now, you can control when you drop your 4th land to play around it, which is nice from a strategic standpoint. And a Uborg cycle would be AWESOME, although I think it would completely kill Blood Moon strategies (although as a UWR player, I have no qualms about getting all my lands to be island)
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Modern: UWR Breach, UWB Esper control
Legacy: UW RiP/Helm, UR Sneak and Show
More metagame updates! Just finished adding a ton of MTG State Champs results, all tournaments held in August. Between that, a few new SCG results, and a bunch of MTGO results, our current metagame is really coming together. We have just 11 days to go before the big update, and here's how things are looking right now.
PROVEN
Pretty much what you would expect, with basically the same decks as last time. That is, with TWO new additions!! Both RG Tron and Merfolk are currently squeezing into Proven on the back of their large paper event prevalence. Both decks shot up to 3.5% of the large paper event metagame, which puts them just over the cutoff and gives them that 3rd criteria needed for Proven status. This could definitely change in the next 11 days, but as of now, here is what Proven will look like.
Affinity
Melira Pod / Angel Pod
Burn
BG Rock
UR Twin
Scapeshift
Jund
UWR Control
RUG Twin
Storm
Merfolk
RG Tron
Remember that this is also the new 3+ criteria model, not the old 2+ one.
ESTABLISHED
Things look about the same here as they did a week ago, but there are some updates worth mentioning.
8Rack and Griselbrand, 2 decks on the "second chance policy", will still probably be staying.
Cruel Control, UW Midrange, Nykthos Green, and Assault Loam will still probably be moving back to Creation.
BW Tokens and 4C Gifts will probably be staying in Established without being on the "second chance policy".
Deadguy Ale will probably be on "second chance policy", but will stay in Established for this update.
You didn't mention Kiki Pod and Bogles. Does this mean that they are being downgraded to "Established"?
Are UR Twin and Tarmo Twin going to have separate threads? I am asking because you cited them separately.
Kiki Pod and Bogles are going down to Established. They just don't have the performances and prevalence to warrant being Proven rightow.
There's an odd thing with the Twin decks in that I am tracking them separately for metagame purposes, but they aren't being discussed separately for forum purposes. That's because UR Tempo Twin and RUG Twin play out the same way, but UR Combo Twin plays out differently. In practice, it's just easier if they all go into the same thread, kind of like how Melira Pod and Angel Pod get lumped together (But comboless Junk Pod would not).
Really hope this recent resurgence of 'Red Deck Wins' is not a sign of things to come for the long future. I hate this deck like I hate the Dallas Cowboys.
I had expected an uptick in RDW at the last tournament, and instead got a face full of Affinity. When I asked why a bunch were playing it, most said they could out race Burn, with the down turn in BG decks they felt like the field was theirs for the taking.
Out of 40+ players, over half of the decks being played were Affinity if that gives you any info. I only ran into two burn players the whole day.
I had expected an uptick in RDW at the last tournament, and instead got a face full of Affinity. When I asked why a bunch were playing it, most said they could out race Burn, with the down turn in BG decks they felt like the field was theirs for the taking.
Out of 40+ players, over half of the decks being played were Affinity if that gives you any info. I only ran into two burn players the whole day.
Wow thats insane. Wondered what happened to all the burn players.
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Standard : What is Stand-tart
Modern : Huh?
EDH : UBGW Thrasios / Tymna Combo UBGW // GRW Mayael Big Stuff GRW // GU Edric Timewalkers GU
The last day for recording events in the spreadsheet is 9/22/2014 (events from that day won't get posted until 9/23, so that's technically the final cutoff). As it stands, here are the decks that will stay in/be bumped to Proven. Barring some bizarre deck finishes getting posted this weekend, this is probably how things will shake out next week.
PROVEN
Affinity
Melira Pod / Angel Pod
Burn
BG Rock
UR Twin
Jund
Scapeshift
RG Tron
Merfolk
UWR Control
RUG Twin
Storm
As for Established, we have a lot of old faces and a few wacky and wild newcomers. I'm going to modtext the ones that are noteworthy.
ESTABLISHED
UR Delver
UWR Midrange
Kiki Pod (Moving down from Proven. It just doesn't have the numbers right now)
Bogles (Finally out of Proven. It was weird that this was there and it's good that it's gone)
Faeries
Living End
Infect
Ad Nauseam
Amulet of Vigor
UW Trun
RUG Midrange / RUG Delver (NOTE: These got tracked as the same deck this time, which will be corrected in the next ban cycle)
Naya Zoo
Blue Moon
Domain Zoo
Gruul Zoo
Mon U Tron
Soul Sisters
GW/Mono W Death and Taxes
8Rack (Stays in Established, having accumulated more than enough Daily wins this last quarter)
UWR Twin
GW Hatebears
Junk Pod (not sure if this really needs its own thread over Melira/Angel Pod in Proven)
BW Tokens
Deadguy Ale
UW Control
UWR Delver (Promoted from Creation, thanks to GP Kobe!)
Junk
Summoning Trap Ramp (!!!) (the breakout MTGO deck of the season. Has more wins than 4C Gifts and Gruul Zoo)
Griselbrand Reanimator
UB Tezzeret (Promoted from Creation, thanks to GP Kobe!)
There will also probably be a few more updates to those forums:
OTHER CHANGES
Nykthos Green moved to Deck Creation
4C Gifts placed on the Second Chance Policy, but it will stay in Established
Assault Loam moved to Deck Creation
UW Midrange moved to Deck Creation
Cruel Control moved to Deck Creation
DECK CREATION POLICY IS GETTING UPDATED! New decks will be stickied! Old decks will be unstickied.
Overall, an interesting update and one that I think really reflects the state of Modern.
Feel free to share thoughts, concerns, ideas, etc.!
I know you have strict criteria and are probably more informed than I, but it seems bizarre to me that GP winning decks like Kiki Pod, as well as decks that have top8'd in my recent memory like Infect and UWR Midrange are below Storm, Merfolk and RG Tron which I can't remember doing well in ages.
Here are the Kiki Pod stats from the spreadsheet:
MTGO: 1.5% of decks (same as Bogles, Faeries, and Infect) - Established
GP/PT T8: 1 finish - Proven
GP/PT T16s: 4 finishes - Proven
GP/PT Day 2s: 2.5% (same as Living End and Naya Zoo) - Established
Large Paper T8s: 2.75% (just under the cutoff, along with UWR Midrange) - Established
It's a strong deck (evidenced by its major event performance), but just not widely played. Proven is as much a function of deck strength as it is a function of deck prevalence and popularity. Proven "represents the current metagame", and Kiki Pod just doesn't see enough play to represent that.
Next, Infect:
MTGO: 1.5% of decks - Established
GP/PT T8: 2 finishes - Proven
GP/PT T16s: 2 finishes - Proven
GP/PT Day 2s: 1.5% - Established
Large Paper T8s: 1.5% - Established
There's a deck that looks like a good metagame choice, but not necessarily a tier 1 deck that represents the current metagame as a whole. Its prevalence is just way too low across the board.
UWR Midrange:
MTGO: 2.3% of decks - Established
GP/PT T8: 1 finish - Proven
GP/PT T16s: 1 finish - Established
GP/PT Day 2s: 3% - Established (Barely under the cutoff)
Large Paper T8s: 2.75% - Established
Part of the confusion with UWR Midrange comes from the wild misclassification of those decks by other sites. Just because a deck runs 4 Snapcaster and 4 Restoration Angel, that does not make it UWR Midrange. UWR Midrange decks have stuff like Geist, Blade Splicer, no sweepers, low-count or no Revelations, etc. If they have those things, they get classified as UWR Midrange. Otherwise, it's UWR Control. That said, there is a bit of a gray area as to where UWR Kiki Control falls, and that is a sizable enough chunk on the spreadsheet to push UWR Midrange into Proven territory. But it's not quite clear to me that UWR Kiki Control is midrange, and I have heard mixed assessments of it from other players.
On second thought, I'm not sure why we decided to keep PT Valencia in the dataset at all. It was 7 months ago from today, and the update is supposed to reflect the metagame for the past 3-6 months AS OF THE DAY OF THE UPDATE, not as of the BEGINNING of the update.
Removing PT Valencia from the dataset has no effect other than to remove Merfolk and Storm from Proven.
I know you have strict criteria and are probably more informed than I, but it seems bizarre to me that GP winning decks like Kiki Pod, as well as decks that have top8'd in my recent memory like Infect and UWR Midrange are below Storm, Merfolk and RG Tron which I can't remember doing well in ages.
Is getting Top 4 in a Grand Prix a month ago "not doing well in ages"?
Speaking of the modern metagame, since I'm a bit out of the loop and I can't find satysfying results, when will it be the next big tournament to see what people break out of the new KTK cards? I know of GP milano since it's here in italy and most of my friends are going, but any big event sooner? I kinda want to see the top players what they are coming up with, if anything is changing or if the meta is still stable... I kinda don't enjoy any modern deck right now so I'm hoping for some innovation since my brews tend to not be good enough =P
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Vintage nostalgic, WUB Fish control/aggro addicted.
Legacy:RUG Temur Delver
Modern: ??? undecided.
New spreadsheet is up, tracking events between 9/22/2014 and 1/19/2015 (the current ban cycle). You can find the link here, and in the OP and my signature.
The biggest change to the tracking is the addition of ALL paper events, not just "large" ones. We don't care about the size of MTGO dailies, so it doesn't make sense that we care about the size of paper events either. From 9/22 onward, I will record all paper events regardless of their size.
Related to that change, we will also be tracking T8 AND T16 events for paper events. Just as we track both 4-0 and 3-1 finishes, so too should we track both T8 and T16 finishes at paper events. We are also currently doing both T8/T16 for major paper events, so it makes sense to do that for the others as well. Again, this will only affect events after 9/22/2014.
Speaking of the modern metagame, since I'm a bit out of the loop and I can't find satysfying results, when will it be the next big tournament to see what people break out of the new KTK cards? I know of GP milano since it's here in italy and most of my friends are going, but any big event sooner? I kinda want to see the top players what they are coming up with, if anything is changing or if the meta is still stable... I kinda don't enjoy any modern deck right now so I'm hoping for some innovation since my brews tend to not be good enough =P
Star City Games has Premier Invitational Qualifier in the Modern format at the same time as their Legacy Opens, and they tend to attract a decent number of people; not sure of how many exactly, but I think it's usually in the 100-200 range?
Here are the top-placing decks in the most recent one, which is the first after the new cards became legal. (if you're wondering why I used Tiny URL, it's because the direct links to SCG Decklists don't seem to work right on MTG Salvation)
My prediction is that a more aggressive UWR Control (or more controlling UWR Midrange) seems set for massive success with the current, and predicted future, meta game. Everyone seems to be experimenting with the new Ascension Storm deck and UWR is definitely the ideal deck to be fighting it with. Having access to a bunch of cheap removal/burn and counterspells like Leak and Spell Snare (which is absolutely bonkers card, atm - I'd be running an automatic 4 of right now). It also has access to Leyline/Helix/Batterskull against Burn, the other boogeyman of the format.
I'd say the format's looking soft to tempo.
Which is kinda in line with where you seem to be going, I think.
There's a joke that can be made about how Blue can be sidelined in favor of Mana Tithe.
At least where I'm at, Mana Tithe is where it's at, for the time being.
But UWR definitely feels like the colors to be on right now. Just the right mix of functionality for the format, you could pick any 2 colors from it and still likely get there.
@ktkenshinx
Random question, since in your list UR Twin and RUG Twin are listed separately, will they be having separate premiers?
In practice, it's one of those things that makes more sense for them to be discussed together. Like UWR Kiki Control and UWR Control. We could split the threads, but I think that would just create two discussions with fewer overall participants.
So, magic is going from having standard be 24 months long before roation and looking like:
Set 1a, set 2a, set 3a, core, set 1b, set 2b, set 3b
to:
Set 1a, set 2a, set 1b, set 2b, set 1c, set 2c.
So that means the impact on us:
Over all, this is a big change. While it effects standard more than us, obviously, the cards we inevitably receive is filtered through standard.
Given that reprints tend not be needed in Standard, especially "aggressive" reprints, this probably speaks to reprints done mostly for Modern. Or, at least, to benefit both Standard and Modern.
Cheeri0sXWU
Reid Duke's Level One
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Alt+0198=Æ
"OH GOD MY BRAIN IS EXPLOADING AT HOW BAD THE ART IS ON MY OWN CARD"
-A friend's first impression of Ancestral Recall
10/10, I tapped.
Cheeri0sXWU
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As of now, here are the Proven/"Tier 1" decks in the format. This is using the 3+ criteria, which is what we will be using for the foreseeable future:
I think an uninhibited tectonic edge might be a bit too strong. As it is now, you can control when you drop your 4th land to play around it, which is nice from a strategic standpoint. And a Uborg cycle would be AWESOME, although I think it would completely kill Blood Moon strategies (although as a UWR player, I have no qualms about getting all my lands to be island)
Legacy: UW RiP/Helm, UR Sneak and Show
http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/511575-cards-that-should-be-reprinted-to-enter-the-modern
http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/490802-print-this-wizards-so-i-can-play-it-in-modern
PROVEN
Pretty much what you would expect, with basically the same decks as last time. That is, with TWO new additions!! Both RG Tron and Merfolk are currently squeezing into Proven on the back of their large paper event prevalence. Both decks shot up to 3.5% of the large paper event metagame, which puts them just over the cutoff and gives them that 3rd criteria needed for Proven status. This could definitely change in the next 11 days, but as of now, here is what Proven will look like.
ESTABLISHED
Things look about the same here as they did a week ago, but there are some updates worth mentioning.
Kiki Pod and Bogles are going down to Established. They just don't have the performances and prevalence to warrant being Proven rightow.
There's an odd thing with the Twin decks in that I am tracking them separately for metagame purposes, but they aren't being discussed separately for forum purposes. That's because UR Tempo Twin and RUG Twin play out the same way, but UR Combo Twin plays out differently. In practice, it's just easier if they all go into the same thread, kind of like how Melira Pod and Angel Pod get lumped together (But comboless Junk Pod would not).
Can we all just maindeck Chalice of the Void?
Out of 40+ players, over half of the decks being played were Affinity if that gives you any info. I only ran into two burn players the whole day.
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Wow thats insane. Wondered what happened to all the burn players.
Modern : Huh?
EDH : UBGW Thrasios / Tymna Combo UBGW // GRW Mayael Big Stuff GRW // GU Edric Timewalkers GU
PROVEN
ESTABLISHED
OTHER CHANGES
Feel free to share thoughts, concerns, ideas, etc.!
Here are the Kiki Pod stats from the spreadsheet:
MTGO: 1.5% of decks (same as Bogles, Faeries, and Infect) - Established
GP/PT T8: 1 finish - Proven
GP/PT T16s: 4 finishes - Proven
GP/PT Day 2s: 2.5% (same as Living End and Naya Zoo) - Established
Large Paper T8s: 2.75% (just under the cutoff, along with UWR Midrange) - Established
It's a strong deck (evidenced by its major event performance), but just not widely played. Proven is as much a function of deck strength as it is a function of deck prevalence and popularity. Proven "represents the current metagame", and Kiki Pod just doesn't see enough play to represent that.
Next, Infect:
MTGO: 1.5% of decks - Established
GP/PT T8: 2 finishes - Proven
GP/PT T16s: 2 finishes - Proven
GP/PT Day 2s: 1.5% - Established
Large Paper T8s: 1.5% - Established
There's a deck that looks like a good metagame choice, but not necessarily a tier 1 deck that represents the current metagame as a whole. Its prevalence is just way too low across the board.
UWR Midrange:
MTGO: 2.3% of decks - Established
GP/PT T8: 1 finish - Proven
GP/PT T16s: 1 finish - Established
GP/PT Day 2s: 3% - Established (Barely under the cutoff)
Large Paper T8s: 2.75% - Established
Part of the confusion with UWR Midrange comes from the wild misclassification of those decks by other sites. Just because a deck runs 4 Snapcaster and 4 Restoration Angel, that does not make it UWR Midrange. UWR Midrange decks have stuff like Geist, Blade Splicer, no sweepers, low-count or no Revelations, etc. If they have those things, they get classified as UWR Midrange. Otherwise, it's UWR Control. That said, there is a bit of a gray area as to where UWR Kiki Control falls, and that is a sizable enough chunk on the spreadsheet to push UWR Midrange into Proven territory. But it's not quite clear to me that UWR Kiki Control is midrange, and I have heard mixed assessments of it from other players.
Removing PT Valencia from the dataset has no effect other than to remove Merfolk and Storm from Proven.
Legacy:RUG Temur Delver
Modern: ??? undecided.
The biggest change to the tracking is the addition of ALL paper events, not just "large" ones. We don't care about the size of MTGO dailies, so it doesn't make sense that we care about the size of paper events either. From 9/22 onward, I will record all paper events regardless of their size.
Related to that change, we will also be tracking T8 AND T16 events for paper events. Just as we track both 4-0 and 3-1 finishes, so too should we track both T8 and T16 finishes at paper events. We are also currently doing both T8/T16 for major paper events, so it makes sense to do that for the others as well. Again, this will only affect events after 9/22/2014.
Here are the top-placing decks in the most recent one, which is the first after the new cards became legal. (if you're wondering why I used Tiny URL, it's because the direct links to SCG Decklists don't seem to work right on MTG Salvation)
I'd say the format's looking soft to tempo.
Which is kinda in line with where you seem to be going, I think.
At least where I'm at, Mana Tithe is where it's at, for the time being.
But UWR definitely feels like the colors to be on right now. Just the right mix of functionality for the format, you could pick any 2 colors from it and still likely get there.
Random question, since in your list UR Twin and RUG Twin are listed separately, will they be having separate premiers?
In practice, it's one of those things that makes more sense for them to be discussed together. Like UWR Kiki Control and UWR Control. We could split the threads, but I think that would just create two discussions with fewer overall participants.