re: the data sets for paper tournaments. I'm really surprised that a 40-player event is considered "large." That's the size of the FNM-style Modern Tuesdays at my LGS in Boston, and anything more competitive than an FNM always gets over 100 players around here, regardless of format. I'd think that "large" shouldn't be measured by people but by rounds (of course, I know there's a direct correlation between the two, but there IS a range). Perhaps cut it off at 7 or 8 rounds?
I too last played standard in Lorwyn and quite enjoyed the whole block. A Return to Lorwyn would be awesome (but I still don't see myself playing Standard again.)
re: the data sets for paper tournaments. I'm really surprised that a 40-player event is considered "large." That's the size of the FNM-style Modern Tuesdays at my LGS in Boston, and anything more competitive than an FNM always gets over 100 players around here, regardless of format. I'd think that "large" shouldn't be measured by people but by rounds (of course, I know there's a direct correlation between the two, but there IS a range). Perhaps cut it off at 7 or 8 rounds?
That 40+ cutoff was calculcated from data last summer and it is no longer relevant. As I mentioned on the previous page, we are just going to include ALL paper events, regardless of size. Although this might skew some data because of those smaller events, it makes a lot more sense given how we treat MTGO events. We don't artificially cutoff MTGO dailies based on attendance, even though there is definitely a huge range of event sizes. We see dailies with 33 players. We see dailies with 115 players. They all get included regardless of that size, and that's how it should be with paper events too.
This is one of the more alarmist and unsupported arguments I have read in a long time, even if it is at least well-written.
For one, this guy totally ignores the financial value and hype-generation of Modern Masters. Why on earth would Wizards want to stop printing that set? That gave them the biggest GP of all time, was one of their best selling products, and overall increased game interest across formats. The poster doesn't even mention this in his analysis which is a glaring oversight.
Second, the poster overvalues the most recent block (Theros) at the expense of the block that preceded it (RtR). RtR had a ton of playable Modern cards and Modern staples. Theros did not but this could just be evidence of a depowered Standard, not a wholesale abandonment of Modern. He also completely ignores the reprints that were aimed directly at Modern. Thoughtseize and Chord of Calling are the big two in this category, but there are a bunch of smaller examples as well. If we had a three year stretch of unplayable Modern blocks, I might be a bit more worried. But this just reads as a reactionary, Theros-sucked post more than anything else.
Finally, despite making a purely speculative argument, he fails to speculate on the most important effect that dropping Modern would have. Players would be furious. There would be a huge subset of players that would just divest from the game. They wouldn't quit entirely, but they definitely wouldn't be buying packs and attending events. They also wouldn't be drumming up interest in the game they love. That sort of wholesale costumer alienation seems unlikely from a company that refuses to do away with the Reserve List, a policy that is universally reviled by anyone who doesn't have their retirement fund in Alpha cards.
I always enjoy reading these sorts of posts, especially when the poster is trying to advance an argument and not just doomsaying. But there are so many oversights, overvaluations, and misinterpretations in this theory that I don't know where to start. Now, if this had been a post about LEGACY, then I might be a bit more on board. Wizards has not done that format a lot of favors recently, at least not relative to other formats. But Modern? The format they tried to drop from the PT and got so much negative reaction that they had to bring it back? If anything, that reaction proved what a bad idea it was to drop Modern support.
I mean, he mades some ok points. Like how if you rename a card rather than reprint it, you add more redonancy and make decks like burn possible. but thats been a well known fact for years. Yes, I do think standard is being nerfed... but that happens like once every 3 years. Alara-Zen Standard was INSANELY powerful, giving us powerhouses like bloodbraid, pulse, jace, stoneforge, fetchlands, goblin guide, ect ect.
And Scars-Inn was "Nerfing it." Still, we see hero of bladehold, most of the affinity deck, tezzarat, koth, lingering souls, thalia, grizzel banned, ect ect.
Even if standard is being nerfed it doesnt mean we wont find a useful card or 2. After all, standard doesnt have to worry about X card affecting a card printed in alara. We can though. Our card pool is bigger, it doesnt even have to be a "pushed card" for it to turn online a old/new deck. Just needs to work.
Wizards set the bar at 8th edition. They knew the cards and power level we could use from the start. The game does have a power cycle, and we are currently in a valley of sorts. Why wizards thought taking modern off the PT was a good idea I dont know, but I dont think they were trying to kill modern. I do think they wanted to push theros more, due to the dropped balls that were Born and Journey. They thought a all standard PT would increase interest in a poor block at the expense of a dedicated player base. Again, how this was a good idea I will never know. Wizards would be fools to kill modern, most modern plauers I know are waiting for MM2 to get here already, and are willing to pay 300 dollars a box like they did last time. All Wizards has to do to keep modern around is throw us a few reprints here and there and make a few cards thay we can work with, and even in Theros and M15 they have done that. We might not see another M12 type set, but its not going to be Homelands 2 either.
I mean, he mades some ok points. Like how if you rename a card rather than reprint it, you add more redonancy and make decks like burn possible. but thats been a well known fact for years. Yes, I do think standard is being nerfed... but that happens like once every 3 years. Alara-Zen Standard was INSANELY powerful, giving us powerhouses like bloodbraid, pulse, jace, stoneforge, fetchlands, goblin guide, ect ect.
And Scars-Inn was "Nerfing it." Still, we see hero of bladehold, most of the affinity deck, tezzarat, koth, lingering souls, thalia, grizzel banned, ect ect.
Even if standard is being nerfed it doesnt mean we wont find a useful card or 2. After all, standard doesnt have to worry about X card affecting a card printed in alara. We can though. Our card pool is bigger, it doesnt even have to be a "pushed card" for it to turn online a old/new deck. Just needs to work.
The idea that they are depowering standard permanently is crazy. Theros as a whole is fairly weak because it is focusing on things (slow buildup, auras) that have traditionally been very weak in Magic's history-- so even if Theros has the best auras ever, they're still auras, and thus still below the established power curve. If anything I expect Khans to have a larger than average number of cards at the Modern power level; traditionally, multicolor (especially three-color) cards are more powerful for their cost, balanced by being harder to cast consistently. With the extreme versatility and power of the manabases in Modern, driven by fetches, shocks, checklands etc., the "downside" of powerful wedge cards is mostly mitigated, leaving just very efficient cards.
Now if it turns out Khans is very weak, I will retract this statement. But Theros has contributed relatively little to Modern because it is focusing on things that traditionally do not play well in Modern, not because the cards it has are weak. If you're looking for a four-CMC beater, I would say Polukranos is one of the best ever printed. It happens that Modern decks are not looking for four-CMC beaters.
The idea that they are depowering standard permanently is crazy. Theros as a whole is fairly weak because it is focusing on things (slow buildup, auras) that have traditionally been very weak in Magic's history-- so even if Theros has the best auras ever, they're still auras, and thus still below the established power curve.
If Theros is focusing on auras, then it's a dismal failure because the two previous blocks had better auras than Theros did, especially RTR block.
This is one of the more alarmist and unsupported arguments I have read in a long time, even if it is at least well-written.
I wanted more people to see this so other people can offer their rebuttals. When I read this, I knew that most, if not all of it is just not true. However, I can't exactly offer a coherent response at the time. But let me just say this. If Hasboro is choosing to milk short term profits over retaining its playerbase in the long haul, then I will simply choose to not spend any more money Magic, which is actually quite easy to refrain from, seeing as how Standard is a money sink and the prices of Modern staples are just ridiculous.
The idea that they are depowering standard permanently is crazy. Theros as a whole is fairly weak because it is focusing on things (slow buildup, auras) that have traditionally been very weak in Magic's history-- so even if Theros has the best auras ever, they're still auras, and thus still below the established power curve.
If Theros is focusing on auras, then it's a dismal failure because the two previous blocks had better auras than Theros did, especially RTR block.
Right! I was like "Dude... the boggles auras are all from zen, future sight and rav..."
The idea that they are depowering standard permanently is crazy. Theros as a whole is fairly weak because it is focusing on things (slow buildup, auras) that have traditionally been very weak in Magic's history-- so even if Theros has the best auras ever, they're still auras, and thus still below the established power curve.
If Theros is focusing on auras, then it's a dismal failure because the two previous blocks had better auras than Theros did, especially RTR block.
Right! I was like "Dude... the boggles auras are all from zen, future sight and rav..."
I wasn't even thinking about Modern. I was just thinking about Standard. Auras is a deck in Standard, but all of the auras are from the Return to Ravnica block. And Auras was actually a better deck last season, before Theros. While admittedly part of that was the fact it had Invisible Stalker and Geist of Saint Traft, Spectral Flight was still a big boost, and there's been nothing in Theros on that level. And while it wasn't part of the Innistrad block, Rancor was another really powerful aura that's leagues ahead of any auras in Theros. Theros actually dropped the strength of auras compared to the previous sets.
I mean, he mades some ok points. Like how if you rename a card rather than reprint it, you add more redonancy and make decks like burn possible. but thats been a well known fact for years. Yes, I do think standard is being nerfed... but that happens like once every 3 years. Alara-Zen Standard was INSANELY powerful, giving us powerhouses like bloodbraid, pulse, jace, stoneforge, fetchlands, goblin guide, ect ect.
These are interesting responses, but do you think it might be a good idea to give those replies in the applicable thread as well?
The only block recently that has given modern nothing (that I can think of) has been M13 (where they could have printed Noble Hierarch). While they haven't all been new cards, reprints are very welcomed. I think Wizards is still worried about another Chronicles, and with Modern Masters being a thing, they need to be careful, as re printing too much could end up hurting the games more than helping it. I'm all for lower prices, on a lot of cards, but not everything belongs in the dollar box.
The only block recently that has given modern nothing (that I can think of) has been M13 (where they could have printed Noble Hierarch).
Thundermaw Hellkite? Master of the Pearl Trident? Rancor? There were also a number of reprints of already-Modern-legal cards such as the checklands, which you seem to indicate should "count" by your mention of Noble Hierarch.
While they haven't all been new cards, reprints are very welcomed. I think Wizards is still worried about another Chronicles, and with Modern Masters being a thing, they need to be careful, as re printing too much could end up hurting the games more than helping it. I'm all for lower prices, on a lot of cards, but not everything belongs in the dollar box.
I really think people need to shut up about Chronicles already. There are indeed things to learn about Chronicles, and doing something like putting Tarmogoyfs in as a common for a set is a bad idea (for as much as some players would love them to do that), but let's remember something. Chronicles occurred nearly 20 years ago. So many things about the game and the players are drastically different now. The most common reaction I saw to Modern Masters was frustration that so little was produced because people were interested in buying more of it.
It's not like constant reprints have stopped Yu-Gi-Oh from being the bestselling trading card game of all time, at least according to the Guiness Book of World Records.
The only block recently that has given modern nothing (that I can think of) has been M13 (where they could have printed Noble Hierarch).
Thundermaw Hellkite? Master of the Pearl Trident? Rancor? There were also a number of reprints of already-Modern-legal cards such as the checklands, which you seem to indicate should "count" by your mention of Noble Hierarch.
While they haven't all been new cards, reprints are very welcomed. I think Wizards is still worried about another Chronicles, and with Modern Masters being a thing, they need to be careful, as re printing too much could end up hurting the games more than helping it. I'm all for lower prices, on a lot of cards, but not everything belongs in the dollar box.
I really think people need to shut up about Chronicles already. There are indeed things to learn about Chronicles, and doing something like putting Tarmogoyfs in as a common for a set is a bad idea (for as much as some players would love them to do that), but let's remember something. Chronicles occurred nearly 20 years ago. So many things about the game and the players are drastically different now. The most common reaction I saw to Modern Masters was frustration that so little was produced because people were interested in buying more of it.
It's not like constant reprints have stopped Yu-Gi-Oh from being the bestselling trading card game of all time, at least according to the Guiness Book of World Records.
I considered Thundermaw, but thought he was a bit too fringe to list. I completely forgot about the Merfolk, and Rancor has never been that hard to come by. The biggest difference between Yu-Gi-Oh and MTG is that people invest huge amounts of money into decks that stay competitive(baring card bans that is), as do LGSs. Wizards needs to find the happy balance between Chronicles and no reprints. Modern Masters was a highly successful experiment, and the demand was very high. It could have used a bigger print run, but I understand Wizards hesitance. Could you imagine how many LGSs would suddenly go out of business if goyfs price were to drop to 50 bucks?
I considered Thundermaw, but thought he was a bit too fringe to list. I completely forgot about the Merfolk, and Rancor has never been that hard to come by.
Rancor wasn't necessarily hard to come by, but the point was that it was a set that added a card to Modern that had a reasonable impact.
If we're actually talking about making cards easier to come by, then saying Magic 2013 was the only set to not do that in the last few years makes little sense, because neither Born of the Gods nor Journey into Nyx had any notable reprints. Heck, the most notable reprint in either was freaking Springleaf Drum.
The biggest difference between Yu-Gi-Oh and MTG is that people invest huge amounts of money into decks that stay competitive(baring card bans that is), as do LGSs. Wizards needs to find the happy balance between Chronicles and no reprints. Modern Masters was a highly successful experiment, and the demand was very high. It could have used a bigger print run, but I understand Wizards hesitance. Could you imagine how many LGSs would suddenly go out of business if goyfs price were to drop to 50 bucks?
I can imagine quite easily, because the answer is "zero."
Yeah, maybe this is just peculiar to Australia, but the availability of online retailers and cheap postage means that most of the local stores around here don't even buy single cards any more.
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Well, I can saw a woman in two, but you won't wanna look in the box when I'm through.
I considered Thundermaw, but thought he was a bit too fringe to list. I completely forgot about the Merfolk, and Rancor has never been that hard to come by.
Rancor wasn't necessarily hard to come by, but the point was that it was a set that added a card to Modern that had a reasonable impact.
If we're actually talking about making cards easier to come by, then saying Magic 2013 was the only set to not do that in the last few years makes little sense, because neither Born of the Gods nor Journey into Nyx had any notable reprints. Heck, the most notable reprint in either was freaking Springleaf Drum.
The biggest difference between Yu-Gi-Oh and MTG is that people invest huge amounts of money into decks that stay competitive(baring card bans that is), as do LGSs. Wizards needs to find the happy balance between Chronicles and no reprints. Modern Masters was a highly successful experiment, and the demand was very high. It could have used a bigger print run, but I understand Wizards hesitance. Could you imagine how many LGSs would suddenly go out of business if goyfs price were to drop to 50 bucks?
I can imagine quite easily, because the answer is "zero."
LGS profit margins are known to be extreamly tight, a card that they bought at 100+ that is suddendly worth just 50? That wpuld hurt a lot of store owners that invested in goyf.
I considered Thundermaw, but thought he was a bit too fringe to list. I completely forgot about the Merfolk, and Rancor has never been that hard to come by.
Rancor wasn't necessarily hard to come by, but the point was that it was a set that added a card to Modern that had a reasonable impact.
If we're actually talking about making cards easier to come by, then saying Magic 2013 was the only set to not do that in the last few years makes little sense, because neither Born of the Gods nor Journey into Nyx had any notable reprints. Heck, the most notable reprint in either was freaking Springleaf Drum.
The biggest difference between Yu-Gi-Oh and MTG is that people invest huge amounts of money into decks that stay competitive(baring card bans that is), as do LGSs. Wizards needs to find the happy balance between Chronicles and no reprints. Modern Masters was a highly successful experiment, and the demand was very high. It could have used a bigger print run, but I understand Wizards hesitance. Could you imagine how many LGSs would suddenly go out of business if goyfs price were to drop to 50 bucks?
I can imagine quite easily, because the answer is "zero."
LGS profit margins are known to be extreamly tight, a card that they bought at 100+ that is suddendly worth just 50? That wpuld hurt a lot of store owners that invested in goyf.
A smart LGS will buy 'goyfs in proportion to their local demand. Which means that if such a thing were to happen, they likely wouldn't be sitting on many copies. Let's say they had 10 copies (I've never seen an LGS with that many, but let's throw that number out there) and they lost $50 on each (according to your numbers). That's still just $500. If an LGS can't withstand a one-time loss of $500 then it was going under regardless of a 'goyf price drop.
1. GP Kobe didn't have a day 2 metagame, so that data is effectively lost for the breakdown.
2. It's not practical/time efficient at this time to go back and add dozens and dozens of large paper events to the dataset from the last 6 months. Those will be added to the next update of the sheet.
3. There's a question about what exactly the 6 month cutoff means. Does that mean from the start of the update (i.e. July) going back 6 months (i.e. to January)? Or is it from the end (September) to the 6 month mark before that update (March)? From what I am seeing in the sheet, I think it is going to be from the beginning of the update onwards. I'd rather have some inaccuracy that comes from more data than an inaccuracy that comes from less data.
Sheet is currently updated to reflect a bunch of PTQs, all MTGO events through yesterday, GP Kobe, and more. Here are the "tier 1"/Proven decks as of now (remember that we upped it to a 3+ criteria cutoff):
Melira Pod
Affinity
Burn
BG Rock
UR Twin
Scapeshift
Jund
UWR Control
Storm
RUG Twin
Of those, the only one that may or may not belong is Storm, which is still riding a bit off its PT Valencia finish. If it doesn't belong, it will drift away by the following update in Janaury. If it does belong, it will continue to put up numbers.
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Thats fair, but strange. Anyone you talked to that played at that time says the set/block was fun to play.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
That 40+ cutoff was calculcated from data last summer and it is no longer relevant. As I mentioned on the previous page, we are just going to include ALL paper events, regardless of size. Although this might skew some data because of those smaller events, it makes a lot more sense given how we treat MTGO events. We don't artificially cutoff MTGO dailies based on attendance, even though there is definitely a huge range of event sizes. We see dailies with 33 players. We see dailies with 115 players. They all get included regardless of that size, and that's how it should be with paper events too.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/standard-type-2/competitive/569428-nerfing-the-game-why-wotc-hates-modern-and-what-it#c1
This is one of the more alarmist and unsupported arguments I have read in a long time, even if it is at least well-written.
For one, this guy totally ignores the financial value and hype-generation of Modern Masters. Why on earth would Wizards want to stop printing that set? That gave them the biggest GP of all time, was one of their best selling products, and overall increased game interest across formats. The poster doesn't even mention this in his analysis which is a glaring oversight.
Second, the poster overvalues the most recent block (Theros) at the expense of the block that preceded it (RtR). RtR had a ton of playable Modern cards and Modern staples. Theros did not but this could just be evidence of a depowered Standard, not a wholesale abandonment of Modern. He also completely ignores the reprints that were aimed directly at Modern. Thoughtseize and Chord of Calling are the big two in this category, but there are a bunch of smaller examples as well. If we had a three year stretch of unplayable Modern blocks, I might be a bit more worried. But this just reads as a reactionary, Theros-sucked post more than anything else.
Finally, despite making a purely speculative argument, he fails to speculate on the most important effect that dropping Modern would have. Players would be furious. There would be a huge subset of players that would just divest from the game. They wouldn't quit entirely, but they definitely wouldn't be buying packs and attending events. They also wouldn't be drumming up interest in the game they love. That sort of wholesale costumer alienation seems unlikely from a company that refuses to do away with the Reserve List, a policy that is universally reviled by anyone who doesn't have their retirement fund in Alpha cards.
I always enjoy reading these sorts of posts, especially when the poster is trying to advance an argument and not just doomsaying. But there are so many oversights, overvaluations, and misinterpretations in this theory that I don't know where to start. Now, if this had been a post about LEGACY, then I might be a bit more on board. Wizards has not done that format a lot of favors recently, at least not relative to other formats. But Modern? The format they tried to drop from the PT and got so much negative reaction that they had to bring it back? If anything, that reaction proved what a bad idea it was to drop Modern support.
And Scars-Inn was "Nerfing it." Still, we see hero of bladehold, most of the affinity deck, tezzarat, koth, lingering souls, thalia, grizzel banned, ect ect.
Even if standard is being nerfed it doesnt mean we wont find a useful card or 2. After all, standard doesnt have to worry about X card affecting a card printed in alara. We can though. Our card pool is bigger, it doesnt even have to be a "pushed card" for it to turn online a old/new deck. Just needs to work.
Cheeri0sXWU
Reid Duke's Level One
Who's the Beatdown
Alt+0198=Æ
The idea that they are depowering standard permanently is crazy. Theros as a whole is fairly weak because it is focusing on things (slow buildup, auras) that have traditionally been very weak in Magic's history-- so even if Theros has the best auras ever, they're still auras, and thus still below the established power curve. If anything I expect Khans to have a larger than average number of cards at the Modern power level; traditionally, multicolor (especially three-color) cards are more powerful for their cost, balanced by being harder to cast consistently. With the extreme versatility and power of the manabases in Modern, driven by fetches, shocks, checklands etc., the "downside" of powerful wedge cards is mostly mitigated, leaving just very efficient cards.
Now if it turns out Khans is very weak, I will retract this statement. But Theros has contributed relatively little to Modern because it is focusing on things that traditionally do not play well in Modern, not because the cards it has are weak. If you're looking for a four-CMC beater, I would say Polukranos is one of the best ever printed. It happens that Modern decks are not looking for four-CMC beaters.
Right! I was like "Dude... the boggles auras are all from zen, future sight and rav..."
The biggest problem with his analysis is that theros is one block and he barely touched on m15, one data point is not enough.
These are interesting responses, but do you think it might be a good idea to give those replies in the applicable thread as well?
Cheeri0sXWU
Reid Duke's Level One
Who's the Beatdown
Alt+0198=Æ
I really think people need to shut up about Chronicles already. There are indeed things to learn about Chronicles, and doing something like putting Tarmogoyfs in as a common for a set is a bad idea (for as much as some players would love them to do that), but let's remember something. Chronicles occurred nearly 20 years ago. So many things about the game and the players are drastically different now. The most common reaction I saw to Modern Masters was frustration that so little was produced because people were interested in buying more of it.
It's not like constant reprints have stopped Yu-Gi-Oh from being the bestselling trading card game of all time, at least according to the Guiness Book of World Records.
I considered Thundermaw, but thought he was a bit too fringe to list. I completely forgot about the Merfolk, and Rancor has never been that hard to come by. The biggest difference between Yu-Gi-Oh and MTG is that people invest huge amounts of money into decks that stay competitive(baring card bans that is), as do LGSs. Wizards needs to find the happy balance between Chronicles and no reprints. Modern Masters was a highly successful experiment, and the demand was very high. It could have used a bigger print run, but I understand Wizards hesitance. Could you imagine how many LGSs would suddenly go out of business if goyfs price were to drop to 50 bucks?
Cheeri0sXWU
Reid Duke's Level One
Who's the Beatdown
Alt+0198=Æ
If we're actually talking about making cards easier to come by, then saying Magic 2013 was the only set to not do that in the last few years makes little sense, because neither Born of the Gods nor Journey into Nyx had any notable reprints. Heck, the most notable reprint in either was freaking Springleaf Drum.
I can imagine quite easily, because the answer is "zero."
LGS profit margins are known to be extreamly tight, a card that they bought at 100+ that is suddendly worth just 50? That wpuld hurt a lot of store owners that invested in goyf.
Cheeri0sXWU
Reid Duke's Level One
Who's the Beatdown
Alt+0198=Æ
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
1. GP Kobe didn't have a day 2 metagame, so that data is effectively lost for the breakdown.
2. It's not practical/time efficient at this time to go back and add dozens and dozens of large paper events to the dataset from the last 6 months. Those will be added to the next update of the sheet.
3. There's a question about what exactly the 6 month cutoff means. Does that mean from the start of the update (i.e. July) going back 6 months (i.e. to January)? Or is it from the end (September) to the 6 month mark before that update (March)? From what I am seeing in the sheet, I think it is going to be from the beginning of the update onwards. I'd rather have some inaccuracy that comes from more data than an inaccuracy that comes from less data.
Sheet is currently updated to reflect a bunch of PTQs, all MTGO events through yesterday, GP Kobe, and more. Here are the "tier 1"/Proven decks as of now (remember that we upped it to a 3+ criteria cutoff):
Melira Pod
Affinity
Burn
BG Rock
UR Twin
Scapeshift
Jund
UWR Control
Storm
RUG Twin
Of those, the only one that may or may not belong is Storm, which is still riding a bit off its PT Valencia finish. If it doesn't belong, it will drift away by the following update in Janaury. If it does belong, it will continue to put up numbers.