Now i waste again 10 minutes of my life reading about this card. Ok not the card itself, reading about censoring it. Is this discussion really our goal? Again and again? By the way, i scrolled down... And scroll again and again... The same everywhere. Sorry but censoring is maybe our only chance to develope and go on without beeing a vintage thread. All you want to say, ALL of you did it several times
Great question what is the goal for this thread. All talk just kinda goes around in circles. Isn’t that the point though give opinions and get feedback? Not sure there are any new topics to really discuss if that’s what you’re looking for. Give it a couple days (let something of interest happen in modern)and the thread will be back on track. Same thing kinda happened last time if I remember correctly.
Aaaaand back to discussions that actually get us somewhere, I can point to a number of areas of thread/Modern progress in the past year.
1. GDS and JDS ban talk. The metagame visibly adapted and the early 2017 panic proved unfounded.
2. ETron ban talk. Yes, some people still hate ETron cards, but they no longer have tournament results to justify that hatred. The format has again visibly adapted in the past few months and ETron's share is way down.
3. Wizards actively considering an unban. Given the consensus in Reddit and MTGS polls/threads, as well as the consensus of article authors (a few of which got cited in mothership daily updates), the only real unban frontrunners look like BBE and JTMS, with maybe SFM in the picture. After that, there's basically no consensus, and even that consensus around those three cards mostly covers BBE alone. That's a big change from earlier in the year where BBE seemed less likely than SFM or JTMS.
4. Wizards called the current Modern, current as of last week, "healthy" in a "no changes" justification. That's tangible progress from earlier this year when they were nervous about color balance. It also clearly influences their subsequent unban decision, as Wizards will only unban cards that don't jeopardize that health. BBE looks great there, judging by Jund's non-existent share. JTMS is riskier, but still probably okay, and SFM is riskier still. Everything else is probably too swingy.
Overall, that's a lot of forward progress we've seen in this thread. I'd rather blaze trails on these topics than recycle tired, circular discussions.
In your point #3 you talk about reading lots of polls and articles from different authors to see that the consensus points to bloodbraid elf among a few others. All I'm saying is censership, silencing voices, is not how you build a concesus. That is how you build resentment from making people feel that their option is wrong and you build your own echo chamber without different opinions. This idea drives the wedge deeper, spreding the encampments even further apart and I don't support it.
3. Wizards actively considering an unban. Given the consensus in Reddit and MTGS polls/threads, as well as the consensus of article authors (a few of which got cited in mothership daily updates), the only real unban frontrunners look like BBE and JTMS, with maybe SFM in the picture. After that, there's basically no consensus, and even that consensus around those three cards mostly covers BBE alone. That's a big change from earlier in the year where BBE seemed less likely than SFM or JTMS.
Wizards actively considering unban, but discussion of one of the most controversial bans (and a completely plausible unban target) is not allowed whatsoever. To imply that Twin is NOT a possible, plausible, or likely unban target (and thus worthy of discussion in this thread) is naive and needlessly authoritarian. Another ridiculous stunt; folding to a vocal minority of people complaining about the discussion.
3. Wizards actively considering an unban. Given the consensus in Reddit and MTGS polls/threads, as well as the consensus of article authors (a few of which got cited in mothership daily updates), the only real unban frontrunners look like BBE and JTMS, with maybe SFM in the picture. After that, there's basically no consensus, and even that consensus around those three cards mostly covers BBE alone. That's a big change from earlier in the year where BBE seemed less likely than SFM or JTMS.
Wizards actively considering unban, but discussion of one of the most controversial bans (and a completely plausible unban target) is not allowed whatsoever. To imply that Twin is NOT a possible, plausible, or likely unban target (and thus worthy of discussion in this thread) is naive and needlessly authoritarian. Another ridiculous stunt; folding to a vocal minority of people complaining about the discussion.
Not a mod anymore so I'm not the person you (or anyone else) should be talking to. This also isn't the place: go PM the staff.
Re: consensus
I actually don't think we need unban consensus to indicate an unban. It would be a nice indicator, but it's by no means necessary. In fact, it's even less necessary knowing Wizards already is considering unbans. That means we just need to identify plausible unban targets, and to do that we just need to look at frontrunners (BBE, SFM, and JTMS are clearly ahead in most sources I have seen) and compare unban options to the current "healthy" metagame. That's why BBE really emerges as a frontrunner, and that's new progress beyond the norm.
That means we just need to identify plausible unban targets, and to do that we just need to look at frontrunners (BBE, SFM, and JTMS are clearly ahead in most sources I have seen)
If only there were some poll that we could reference that shows four clear and distinct front runners, consistently, every time the poll is opened...
That means we just need to identify plausible unban targets, and to do that we just need to look at frontrunners (BBE, SFM, and JTMS are clearly ahead in most sources I have seen)
If only there were some poll that we could reference that shows four clear and distinct front runners, consistently, every time the poll is opened...
That means we just need to identify plausible unban targets, and to do that we just need to look at frontrunners (BBE, SFM, and JTMS are clearly ahead in most sources I have seen)
If only there were some poll that we could reference that shows four clear and distinct front runners, consistently, every time the poll is opened...
Popular does not mean plausible.
There's a reason it comes up over and over and over and over again, and it's difficult to understand why that is for those not playing at the time. Mostly because stories and exaggerations and retroactive opinions have salted the reality of the deck, what it did, how it operated, and what it meant for the format. Those that know the deck, played the deck, and understand its impact in the meta know that A) it shouldn't have been banned at all in the first place, and B) would be totally fine in today's meta.
Unless there is some distinct and identifiable evidence to prove that it will unequivocally never come off the banned list, restricting discussion is petty, lazy, authoritarian, and unnecessary. It's caving into people who don't want to have an open and honest discussion about a deck clouded in misconceptions, untrue comments, and downright hatred, usually fueled by misinformation and incorrect histories. A deck which has every possibility to come off the list after two years (almost exactly like Wild Nacatl was: banned for stupid reasons, released back two years later).
Polls aren't really a great indicator and don't age well. If I recall correctly six months ago Preordain was killing the polls before Storm started performing well, and Jace was ahead of the races when Mr.Forsythe tweeted that there's plenty of chatter over it.
The discussion ban is in place for a reason. No, it was not reinstated to quell a vocal minority; in fact, the majority of active users in this thread wanted us to put the discussion ban back into place, and the reports and PM's we constantly got served as enough evidence to warrant action. If you have questions or concerns, we are always open and willing to answer PM's. --CavalryWolfPack
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"Don't believe everything you read on the internet." - Abraham Lincoln
The discussion ban is in place for a reason. No, it was not reinstated to quell a vocal minority; in fact, the majority of active users in this thread wanted us to put the discussion ban back into place, and the reports and PM's we constantly got served as enough evidence to warrant action. If you have questions or concerns, we are always open and willing to answer PM's. --CavalryWolfPack
Then allow that discussion to take place SOMEWHERE. This ridiculous and selective enforcement is no less ridiculous than the ban of the deck itself.
If people wanted a thread to discuss it, couldn't they just make one? Or am I missing how making general threads works? If people were constantly debating it in such a thread, it wouldn't need to be stickied or anything.
Having a thread actually sounds like a pretty good idea. There could even be a "primer" updated with the arguments from both sides.
No I was told by the mods this isn’t an option.
This was lanterns reply when I suggested it.
“Because the same reasons we stated in the thread. It was a cylindrical discussion where nothing advanced and pitted people for or against it. We will not be creating a separate thread for people to discuss twin, as that is completely apposed to the reason why we did it in the first place.
We have tried almost every option available to us. We have carded flamers/trollers, we have red texted and red texted, the root of the problem of that thread is in fact twin talk. And as its been 20 months with literally no hint of the card coming off, we are banning the discussion of it. We have done this in the past with brainstorm in legacy, delver in pauper and so on. Other sites have done this as well, a good example is pokemon in their teiring system.
As its been said before, if there is anything that changes twins hard position on the ban list, we will open the topic back up. Until then, it does more toxic than good in that thread.”
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Infraction for ignoring mod text. If you have issues with the reinstated rules please PM the mods so we can discuss it.
Personal opinion at best but I would toy around with the idea of three Bloodbraid Elf and a single copy of Kalitas. Olivia for sure will be made obsolete but I imagine siding out a single BBE for Thrun versus control heavy matches.
I don't know, analyzing "what if" scenarios is difficult without any better data. I just know looking at what's currently top tier and the ban list that Bloodbraid Elf is comically underpowered.
3. Wizards actively considering an unban. Given the consensus in Reddit and MTGS polls/threads, as well as the consensus of article authors (a few of which got cited in mothership daily updates), the only real unban frontrunners look like BBE and JTMS, with maybe SFM in the picture. After that, there's basically no consensus, and even that consensus around those three cards mostly covers BBE alone. That's a big change from earlier in the year where BBE seemed less likely than SFM or JTMS.
Wizards actively considering unban, but discussion of one of the most controversial bans (and a completely plausible unban target) is not allowed whatsoever. To imply that Twin is NOT a possible, plausible, or likely unban target (and thus worthy of discussion in this thread) is naive and needlessly authoritarian. Another ridiculous stunt; folding to a vocal minority of people complaining about the discussion.
Not a mod anymore so I'm not the person you (or anyone else) should be talking to. This also isn't the place: go PM the staff.
Re: consensus
I actually don't think we need unban consensus to indicate an unban. It would be a nice indicator, but it's by no means necessary. In fact, it's even less necessary knowing Wizards already is considering unbans. That means we just need to identify plausible unban targets, and to do that we just need to look at frontrunners (BBE, SFM, and JTMS are clearly ahead in most sources I have seen) and compare unban options to the current "healthy" metagame. That's why BBE really emerges as a frontrunner, and that's new progress beyond the norm.
What I do do we have that those are actually more likely unbans than other cards? No one actually knows anything so stating one card is more likely than another seems odd to me.
I agree wit the censorship dislike.
I'd honestly be better to just cap the amount of times an individual user can reference the banned card in a certain time frame (ie: only 2 posts a day, or something).
As was mentioned earlier in the thread though, I definitely feel for the people who's attendance has dropped.
I definitely wish modern was more appealing to everyone (and not "oh you like interactive decks? Good, you have three choices: UW, UWR, or shadow. Oh, you like noninteractive decks? Pick from these 12").
I do hope that wizard's changes in set design (I hope opt, perilous voyage, chart a course, search for azcanta, and all the other borderline cards from ixalan are only the start) and banned list control start to change this.
Someone in the previous thread mentioned that the pro tour has a good chance of revealing some deck to be a lot stronger than everyone is aware of.
I almost want that to happen, just because any big change afterwards feels like it would be an improvement. Of course, getting someone's deck banned doesn't feel great either.
I agree that fair decks have 2 options.
I'm going to be honest, UW is a bad deck. Yes, it has times where it's good, but I have several issues with the deck
No real, clear win con
Too reactive
Too slow
Profits from a defined, known meta
Too mana hungry
I'm sure i'll rustle some peoples jimmies, but it's just a bad deck in modern. You can't be this reactive in modern. This will never be a good archetype until legacy like power stuff is released or created. If you want to play a real control deck, you just play lantern (which is really more prison).
Shadow decks and Jeskai feel like the only truly interactive decks to pick, everything else has become. I've seen more jund and junk players accept that their decks suck now, and less activity in the Facebook chats.
Pick from a huge closet of combo decks or linear creature aggro decks
Even the humans deck is forgoing a lot of interaction for super aggressive disruption (not that this complete a solitaire deck).
IMO, UWR is a bad deck too. It might be better than UW, but compared to most of the "actually good" decks, its just not that strong. There are too many decks/scenarios where it literally can not win.
Jund was good in the past, and shadow is good now because of its ability to just go "discard > threat > discard/removal/counter > you lose". To a lesser extent, twin could do that too (remand > tap your guys > you lose) which is why it was good.
Any reactive deck that doesn't have near unbeatable + oppressive (not the word I'm looking for, but I hope its clear what I mean) hands aren't going to be on the same tier as all of the proactive decks, because all of the proactive have oppressive + unbeatable hands that happen a lot more often than the reactive decks.
If only there were some poll that we could reference that shows four clear and distinct front runners, consistently, every time the poll is opened...
BBE and SFM are way ahead of anything else in that poll, so it actually suggests two frontrunners instead of three. The reddit polls, which I now can't find, looked similar. Historically, in an admittedly small sample, MTGS polls have not been awful at predicting bans/unbans. AV was the most-requested unban before it actually got unbanned. Eye was the most requested ban before it actually got banned. GGT was the second-most card in its poll, and Become Immense was #1; Wizards hit Probe instead, but people correctly identified a speed issue with Infect and related decks. The polls aren't perfect by any means, but they are also more accurate indicators than many people believe.
What I do do we have that those are actually more likely unbans than other cards? No one actually knows anything so stating one card is more likely than another seems odd to me.
This kind of logic gets us nowhere. By that logic, we shouldn't discuss anything because we can't possibly know anything Wizards is doing. Not a productive line to take.
Alternately, we can look at past examples and try to find indicators that we are on the right track. For example, we know Wizards is considering an unban. We also know from posts by Stoddard and Forsythe in the past that stuff like Glimpse and Skullclamp are off the table. We also know they consider the current format healthy, and we know there has been significant momentum in pro and online circles for a few unbans: BBE, SFM, and JTMS are frequent discussions here. We also know the logic under which those cards were initially banned (see previous Wizards articles) and we can try to compare that initial rationale against the current metagame.
Based on all that, something like SFM looks a little less plausible; there are lots of white decks enjoying top-tier finishes that can play this card. See D&T, GW Company, Humans, UW Control, Jeskai Control, etc. The color balance Wizards talked about in Spring 2017 (again, something we do know) isn't as pronounced. That said, something like BBE looks significantly more plausible. I haven't seen a single indicator to suggest Jund is doing well. Rather, it looks like it took a precipitous decline since around March 2017 and hasn't stopped much since then. BBE also doesn't help other tiered decks much, which means Wizards could be reasonably assured its effects would be limited to Jund and maybe Temur, but the later is effectively untiered for most of Modern history. All of this suggests much less risk around BBE than around SFM or other competing options.
Again, we don't need to sit in R&D meetings to have informed conversations about this. Just cite previous sources, cite metagame statistics, and we can definitely get ahead of what Wizards is doing.
We(and I hope Wizards) should always remember that Jund was Tier 1 for years and unless Shadow gets unbanned and/or Temple is banned, it won't be Tier 1 again. This deck was tuned though to be better in a modern(not capital m) Modern(capital M) format. Jund Shadow is still a Jund deck. It still discards cards, presents a big clock, plays LOTVs/L,TLH's, meaning a better Jund. Our interests should not lie to make Jund Midrange a tier 1 deck again, since there is the Jund v2.0 - the evolution deck out there.
Our two aims/criteria for unbanning a card should be clear.
1) Is the target card due to help struggling archetypes/colour combinations in Modern(first and most important)?
2) Will the target card in the Banlist be safe in Modern, when and if introduced?
That said, Stoneforge Mystic ticks the first box to unban a card and probably ticks the second box as well.
1) Is the target card in the Banlist due to help struggling archetypes/colour combinations in Modern(first and most important)?
Answer: Stoneforge Mystic is due to help White based Death and Taxes decks, White based Control decks, and make the white colour, which is the weakest overall, more viable. It will also help Abzan Midrange, which is already a good deck, probably without taking too many Jund players in its path, because
A) Those Jund players can up their Kolaghan's Command/thoughtseize/Fatal Push rate to easily fight her off.
B) If Jund becomes obsolete(which it won't), Wizards could unban BBE as well later.
2) Will the target card in the Banlist be safe in Modern, when and if introduced?
I don't disagree with this, and I also think SFM would be fine. Authors and users that talk about T3 BSkull being unfair in a format with ETron, GDS, Affinity, Storm, and Titanshift are out of their minds with bias.
That said, I am not confident Wizards will agree. They have made some odd R&D decisions in the past, and are notoriously conservative when it comes to unbanning. Sword probably could have been unbanned since Day 1 and never have been a Modern influence, but it took almost five years to get that thing off the banlist. I am not sure they will evaluate SFM like we do.
Even so, I do think SFM, BBE, and JTMS are all in the same general probability area as each other. I think one will end up emerging as a more probable candidate than the rest, but they are all fairly close.
I agree with Sheridan's assessment regarding SFM and its likelihood of catching a unban next year. I do believe SFM is mostly fine but Wizards is like a timid deer and probably thinks otherwise.
I agree with Sheridan's assessment regarding SFM and its likelihood of catching a unban next year. I do believe SFM is mostly fine but Wizards is like a timid deer and probably thinks otherwise.
This is a company that thought Bitterblossom, AV, and Sword of the Meek would break the format. There are a LOT of cards on that list that would be completely fine, especially in the cluster-F of powerful decks we have today.
One aspect of SFM which I don't see discussed much is that if it does come off the ban list, doesn't that put a hard cap on how good equipment can become in the future? I think Wizards might take into account that SFM could become the next GGT if a piece of equipment comes out down the line that breaks it.
One aspect of SFM which I don't see discussed much is that if it does come off the ban list, doesn't that put a hard cap on how good equipment can become in the future? I think Wizards might take into account that SFM could become the next GGT if a piece of equipment comes out down the line that breaks it.
This might be a legitimate concern if Wizards hadn't already "nerfed" equipment to be only viable in Limited in most cases. You'll notice that since the enemy swords were finished in SOM, there have been no really good equipment and certainly none better than what we already have.
It seems unlikely the unbanning of SFM will make equipment worse than they already are.
One aspect of SFM which I don't see discussed much is that if it does come off the ban list, doesn't that put a hard cap on how good equipment can become in the future? I think Wizards might take into account that SFM could become the next GGT if a piece of equipment comes out down the line that breaks it.
This might be a legitimate concern if Wizards hadn't already "nerfed" equipment to be only viable in Limited in most cases. You'll notice that since the enemy swords were finished in SOM, there have been no really good equipment and certainly none better than what we already have.
It seems unlikely the unbanning of SFM will make equipment worse than they already are.
That, and even the best equipment ever printed sees zero play in Modern as it is...
I agree with Sheridan's assessment regarding SFM and its likelihood of catching a unban next year. I do believe SFM is mostly fine but Wizards is like a timid deer and probably thinks otherwise.
This is a company that thought Bitterblossom, AV, and Sword of the Meek would break the format. There are a LOT of cards on that list that would be completely fine, especially in the cluster-F of powerful decks we have today.
Exactly. I was surprised that the 3 Modern players I took in my car yesterday to FNM needed me to give them 10 reasons why Stoneforge Mystic is okay in today's format. I don't know if it's the fact that they haven't played extensively with the card before (I did, in Standard), but some of them think there's a fat chance that Stoneforge Mystic comes back and I'm sure that many other players feel the same way. It blows my mind.
For what it's worth, here's what I started with. How many Swords of X and Y have seen play in Modern? How often has Batterskull seen play in Modern? How often has Steelshaper's Gift seen play in Modern? Then I moved on to matchups like Burn and Affinity, where this card should have a big effect. They simply barely care about SfM and if they barely care, then most other decks don't care at all. Sure, it is definitely a mirror breaker in the Midrange mirror. But when do these such mirrors come up, outside of the random FNM in some odd city? This simply isn't what Modern is about. Midrange mirrors may even be more rare than Control mirrors nowadays, gasp!
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
I agree with Sheridan's assessment regarding SFM and its likelihood of catching a unban next year. I do believe SFM is mostly fine but Wizards is like a timid deer and probably thinks otherwise.
This is a company that thought Bitterblossom, AV, and Sword of the Meek would break the format. There are a LOT of cards on that list that would be completely fine, especially in the cluster-F of powerful decks we have today.
This is probably true but Wizards has given zero historical indication they are willing to push that line. They ban much more than they unban, and they were almost comically behind on many unbans for a long time. If they are considering unbans by their own admission, we should assume they will unban the most conservative cards still remaining on the lists. Yes, everything generates some degree of controversy, but they will probably turn to the cards that generate the least controversy. BBE seems like the likeliest candidate there.
One aspect of SFM which I don't see discussed much is that if it does come off the ban list, doesn't that put a hard cap on how good equipment can become in the future? I think Wizards might take into account that SFM could become the next GGT if a piece of equipment comes out down the line that breaks it.
It's possible but not super likely. Equipment has been severely weakened independent of SFM's Modern legality. Even if they made equipment more powerful for Standard, I doubt they would push it so hard that it would cause Modern issues. I am also sure that Play Design will be careful of this in the future after previous design fiascos, recent examples of which include delve, Eldrazi, and Dredge enablers.
The problem with equipments outside of a few rare cases is that they are just too slow in most Modern games. Wizards would need to print an equipment that is in between Batterskull and Jitte power level while also having a low equipment cost.
when was the last time they printed good equipment. hint: no time in the last half decade.
The argument that "Stoneforge Mystic" only gets better because better equipment can get printed is just silly to me. For real - is Wizards going to print an equipment better than Jitte? That's just silly. Or, I can even forget about that one because it's not (rightfully so) Modern legal. Are they going to print equipment better than Sword of X and Y, Batterskull, or even Cranial Plating? Somehow, I doubt it.
I mean, people complain that Counterspell can't be printed because it's too good for Standard. What do those people think that an equipment better than those will do to Standard...to Limited? (even without a 1 mana dork)
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
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Wizards actively considering unban, but discussion of one of the most controversial bans (and a completely plausible unban target) is not allowed whatsoever. To imply that Twin is NOT a possible, plausible, or likely unban target (and thus worthy of discussion in this thread) is naive and needlessly authoritarian. Another ridiculous stunt; folding to a vocal minority of people complaining about the discussion.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Not a mod anymore so I'm not the person you (or anyone else) should be talking to. This also isn't the place: go PM the staff.
Re: consensus
I actually don't think we need unban consensus to indicate an unban. It would be a nice indicator, but it's by no means necessary. In fact, it's even less necessary knowing Wizards already is considering unbans. That means we just need to identify plausible unban targets, and to do that we just need to look at frontrunners (BBE, SFM, and JTMS are clearly ahead in most sources I have seen) and compare unban options to the current "healthy" metagame. That's why BBE really emerges as a frontrunner, and that's new progress beyond the norm.
If only there were some poll that we could reference that shows four clear and distinct front runners, consistently, every time the poll is opened...
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Popular does not mean plausible.
There's a reason it comes up over and over and over and over again, and it's difficult to understand why that is for those not playing at the time. Mostly because stories and exaggerations and retroactive opinions have salted the reality of the deck, what it did, how it operated, and what it meant for the format. Those that know the deck, played the deck, and understand its impact in the meta know that A) it shouldn't have been banned at all in the first place, and B) would be totally fine in today's meta.
Unless there is some distinct and identifiable evidence to prove that it will unequivocally never come off the banned list, restricting discussion is petty, lazy, authoritarian, and unnecessary. It's caving into people who don't want to have an open and honest discussion about a deck clouded in misconceptions, untrue comments, and downright hatred, usually fueled by misinformation and incorrect histories. A deck which has every possibility to come off the list after two years (almost exactly like Wild Nacatl was: banned for stupid reasons, released back two years later).
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Then allow that discussion to take place SOMEWHERE. This ridiculous and selective enforcement is no less ridiculous than the ban of the deck itself.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
I don't know, analyzing "what if" scenarios is difficult without any better data. I just know looking at what's currently top tier and the ban list that Bloodbraid Elf is comically underpowered.
What I do do we have that those are actually more likely unbans than other cards? No one actually knows anything so stating one card is more likely than another seems odd to me.
IMO, UWR is a bad deck too. It might be better than UW, but compared to most of the "actually good" decks, its just not that strong. There are too many decks/scenarios where it literally can not win.
Jund was good in the past, and shadow is good now because of its ability to just go "discard > threat > discard/removal/counter > you lose". To a lesser extent, twin could do that too (remand > tap your guys > you lose) which is why it was good.
Any reactive deck that doesn't have near unbeatable + oppressive (not the word I'm looking for, but I hope its clear what I mean) hands aren't going to be on the same tier as all of the proactive decks, because all of the proactive have oppressive + unbeatable hands that happen a lot more often than the reactive decks.
BBE and SFM are way ahead of anything else in that poll, so it actually suggests two frontrunners instead of three. The reddit polls, which I now can't find, looked similar. Historically, in an admittedly small sample, MTGS polls have not been awful at predicting bans/unbans. AV was the most-requested unban before it actually got unbanned. Eye was the most requested ban before it actually got banned. GGT was the second-most card in its poll, and Become Immense was #1; Wizards hit Probe instead, but people correctly identified a speed issue with Infect and related decks. The polls aren't perfect by any means, but they are also more accurate indicators than many people believe.
This kind of logic gets us nowhere. By that logic, we shouldn't discuss anything because we can't possibly know anything Wizards is doing. Not a productive line to take.
Alternately, we can look at past examples and try to find indicators that we are on the right track. For example, we know Wizards is considering an unban. We also know from posts by Stoddard and Forsythe in the past that stuff like Glimpse and Skullclamp are off the table. We also know they consider the current format healthy, and we know there has been significant momentum in pro and online circles for a few unbans: BBE, SFM, and JTMS are frequent discussions here. We also know the logic under which those cards were initially banned (see previous Wizards articles) and we can try to compare that initial rationale against the current metagame.
Based on all that, something like SFM looks a little less plausible; there are lots of white decks enjoying top-tier finishes that can play this card. See D&T, GW Company, Humans, UW Control, Jeskai Control, etc. The color balance Wizards talked about in Spring 2017 (again, something we do know) isn't as pronounced. That said, something like BBE looks significantly more plausible. I haven't seen a single indicator to suggest Jund is doing well. Rather, it looks like it took a precipitous decline since around March 2017 and hasn't stopped much since then. BBE also doesn't help other tiered decks much, which means Wizards could be reasonably assured its effects would be limited to Jund and maybe Temur, but the later is effectively untiered for most of Modern history. All of this suggests much less risk around BBE than around SFM or other competing options.
Again, we don't need to sit in R&D meetings to have informed conversations about this. Just cite previous sources, cite metagame statistics, and we can definitely get ahead of what Wizards is doing.
I don't disagree with this, and I also think SFM would be fine. Authors and users that talk about T3 BSkull being unfair in a format with ETron, GDS, Affinity, Storm, and Titanshift are out of their minds with bias.
That said, I am not confident Wizards will agree. They have made some odd R&D decisions in the past, and are notoriously conservative when it comes to unbanning. Sword probably could have been unbanned since Day 1 and never have been a Modern influence, but it took almost five years to get that thing off the banlist. I am not sure they will evaluate SFM like we do.
Even so, I do think SFM, BBE, and JTMS are all in the same general probability area as each other. I think one will end up emerging as a more probable candidate than the rest, but they are all fairly close.
This is a company that thought Bitterblossom, AV, and Sword of the Meek would break the format. There are a LOT of cards on that list that would be completely fine, especially in the cluster-F of powerful decks we have today.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
It seems unlikely the unbanning of SFM will make equipment worse than they already are.
That, and even the best equipment ever printed sees zero play in Modern as it is...
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Exactly. I was surprised that the 3 Modern players I took in my car yesterday to FNM needed me to give them 10 reasons why Stoneforge Mystic is okay in today's format. I don't know if it's the fact that they haven't played extensively with the card before (I did, in Standard), but some of them think there's a fat chance that Stoneforge Mystic comes back and I'm sure that many other players feel the same way. It blows my mind.
For what it's worth, here's what I started with. How many Swords of X and Y have seen play in Modern? How often has Batterskull seen play in Modern? How often has Steelshaper's Gift seen play in Modern? Then I moved on to matchups like Burn and Affinity, where this card should have a big effect. They simply barely care about SfM and if they barely care, then most other decks don't care at all. Sure, it is definitely a mirror breaker in the Midrange mirror. But when do these such mirrors come up, outside of the random FNM in some odd city? This simply isn't what Modern is about. Midrange mirrors may even be more rare than Control mirrors nowadays, gasp!
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)This is probably true but Wizards has given zero historical indication they are willing to push that line. They ban much more than they unban, and they were almost comically behind on many unbans for a long time. If they are considering unbans by their own admission, we should assume they will unban the most conservative cards still remaining on the lists. Yes, everything generates some degree of controversy, but they will probably turn to the cards that generate the least controversy. BBE seems like the likeliest candidate there.
It's possible but not super likely. Equipment has been severely weakened independent of SFM's Modern legality. Even if they made equipment more powerful for Standard, I doubt they would push it so hard that it would cause Modern issues. I am also sure that Play Design will be careful of this in the future after previous design fiascos, recent examples of which include delve, Eldrazi, and Dredge enablers.
Scars block so 2010. There's only 8 equipment in standard atm even.
The argument that "Stoneforge Mystic" only gets better because better equipment can get printed is just silly to me. For real - is Wizards going to print an equipment better than Jitte? That's just silly. Or, I can even forget about that one because it's not (rightfully so) Modern legal. Are they going to print equipment better than Sword of X and Y, Batterskull, or even Cranial Plating? Somehow, I doubt it.
I mean, people complain that Counterspell can't be printed because it's too good for Standard. What do those people think that an equipment better than those will do to Standard...to Limited? (even without a 1 mana dork)
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)