MTG Salvation

http://modernnexus.com/bloodbraid-month-pt-3-qualitative-data/

Thoughts on the article?

Quote from Spsiegel1987 »

http://modernnexus.com/bloodbraid-month-pt-3-qualitative-data/

Thoughts on the article?

Agree with the outcome. People (especially the serious competitive crowd) hate variance wins. The salt would flow, even if its 'fine' when put beside other variance cards like Company.

It seems silly since company has that very same variance rate. Yes, the deck is built so that the failure rate is low, but it can also win the game on the spot, as can elves.

Coco can fizzle though, or hit some dorks. This, it's a lot harder to fizzle. It needs an empty handed opponent and a discard spell, or an empty board and a fatal push or something. It rarely fizzles.

I want to see the hard data, although nobody bated an eye the test showed that Preordain would be totally fine...

No one loves cascade. Free spells are one of the problems in magic. Phyrexian mana and cascade are risky and they dont Like risks

Quote from gkourou »

Coco can fizzle though, or hit some dorks. This, it's a lot harder to fizzle. It needs an empty handed opponent and a discard spell, or an empty board and a fatal push or something. It rarely fizzles.

I want to see the hard data, although nobody bated an eye the test showed that Preordain would be totally fine...

I don't see how this is any more or less "unfair" than Collected Company. Sure, they may have different "fizzle" rates, but CoCo's upsides include winning the game on the spot, as opposed to just a tempo swing. If a high variance value card like CoCo is fine, then a high variance value card like BBE should also be fine. It's hilarious and depressing that the card is still banned.

In other news, the current monetization system in Arena looks totally unworkable for Modern. Basically, there's no selective crafting/dusting like in Hearthstone and collection is based entirely on grinding. There's also no trading. This would mean Modern and other non-rotating formats are totally unworkable in Arena and we would be stuck on MTGO. That, in turn, is bad because I don't foresee Wizards supporting two clients for long. We know that Arena isn't for Modern right now, but this would be bad news going forward for Modern's compatibility in Arena.

Thankfully, this system ALSO looks totally unworkable for Standard, so I think it's likely it will get changed. How the hell are pros supposed to play this game and stream it for an audience if they can't get the cards they need? How can Arena support even competitive Standard play without card creation? How is a TCG like Magic going to eliminate the trading element entirely? These questions will undoubtedly result in some changes to the game and the model, so there's hope yet.

Yeah, I didnt know Arena was excluding Modern, and that whole system looks like a total non-starter to me.

I've got plenty of money into MTGO from when I started, and I will be a bit raged if Arena isnt going to work and MTGO continues to degrade in performance.

I'm going to be very frustrated if I have to rebuy decks on a new client, those online decks cost a lot of money

Quote from ktkenshinx »

In other news, the current monetization system in Arena looks totally unworkable for Modern. Basically, there's no selective crafting/dusting like in Hearthstone and collection is based entirely on grinding. There's also no trading. This would mean Modern and other non-rotating formats are totally unworkable in Arena and we would be stuck on MTGO. That, in turn, is bad because I don't foresee Wizards supporting two clients for long. We know that Arena isn't for Modern right now, but this would be bad news going forward for Modern's compatibility in Arena.

Thankfully, this system ALSO looks totally unworkable for Standard, so I think it's likely it will get changed. How the hell are pros supposed to play this game and stream it for an audience if they can't get the cards they need? How can Arena support even competitive Standard play without card creation? How is a TCG like Magic going to eliminate the trading element entirely? These questions will undoubtedly result in some changes to the game and the model, so there's hope yet.

I've already tweeted, I know I don't have a huge following, but Gambling upon Gambling as a system that's even a draft makes me lose more confidence in this company.

I have no idea, how many opportunities Wizards gets, and they just screw it all up, and reduce confidence at every turn.

Quote from ktkenshinx »

In other news, the current monetization system in Arena looks totally unworkable for Modern. Basically, there's no selective crafting/dusting like in Hearthstone and collection is based entirely on grinding. There's also no trading. This would mean Modern and other non-rotating formats are totally unworkable in Arena and we would be stuck on MTGO. That, in turn, is bad because I don't foresee Wizards supporting two clients for long. We know that Arena isn't for Modern right now, but this would be bad news going forward for Modern's compatibility in Arena.

Thankfully, this system ALSO looks totally unworkable for Standard, so I think it's likely it will get changed. How the hell are pros supposed to play this game and stream it for an audience if they can't get the cards they need? How can Arena support even competitive Standard play without card creation? How is a TCG like Magic going to eliminate the trading element entirely? These questions will undoubtedly result in some changes to the game and the model, so there's hope yet.

For the record we only got more info on the free to play aspect until now. The easiest way to obtain specific cards will be via Wildcards you can open in boosters and via their Vault mechanic.
We don't have any info about it yet, but I'm pretty sure you will be able to buy wildcards for money and since you can't trade or sell cards you don't want/need anymore the price you pay for a standard deck on Arena should be still be lower than what you pay on MTGO or in paper. If not that definitely means Arena will have a very hard time to gain any traction as a competitive game.
Modern on Arena seemed unlikely to begin with to be honest.

Quote from rayo »

For the record we only got more info on the free to play aspect until now. The easiest way to obtain specific cards will be via Wildcards you can open in boosters and via their Vault mechanic.
We don't have any info about it yet,

We have everything, this is directly off the main website

Q. Why did you choose to use Wildcards instead of creating a more traditional dusting system?

A. We think a Wildcard system can make getting the card you want a more fun and equitable experience. Most dusting systems trade down value when players destroy cards. We prefer a system where you don't feel like you need to constantly evaluate what to destroy to get the cards you want, and you get a one-to-one value when you redeem a Wildcard.

Q. Will you tell us the odds of opening a Wildcard in a booster pack?

A. Absolutely. We will publish all the drop rates players need to make informed decisions about purchases as soon as we start allowing players to purchase gems in MTG Arena. Drop rates are something we are specifically testing in Closed Beta to make sure we get it right. When we start allowing players to purchase gems we will publish all drop rates, but please keep in mind they still will be tweaked as we test out the economy throughout Closed Beta (we'll let you know when they change).

Q. Will players be able to unlock The Vault with gems?

A. The Vault rewards players for playing and growing their collection. Vault progress is increased each time a player opens a booster pack or collects more than four copies of a particular card. Players will not be able to directly access The Vault with gems.

This is the exact definition of gambling upon gambling, which may not even be legal in some countries.

Long story short, Wizards has done some serious drugs to think a system like this is going to be profitable or long term sustainable - If this platform can't support Modern, no one will bother. You can't once again, bring Modern back to the Pro Tour, and have no support for an online platform to playtest the format.

Quote from Spsiegel1987 »

I'm going to be very frustrated if I have to rebuy decks on a new client, those online decks cost a lot of money

The frustration of having to re-buy my paper decks in MTGO is one of the reasons I sold out of it a while back. It's a lose-lose situation either way. Gambling luck or forced extra $$$. Maybe they find a way to port over select MTGO cards via a WOTC bot? Who knows.

I'm in the beta and it looks like it has a lot of promise, but it also looks like it will not be optimized whatsoever for older formats (at least not without drastic changes). I got bored playing IXL block constructed, so at least now that RIX is there, I might start it up again. But the interfaces and gameplay structure are not conducive to the kinds of shenanigans usually prevalent in Modern and Legacy.

Quote from Shmanka »

... If this platform can't support Modern, no one will bother. You can't once again, bring Modern back to the Pro Tour, and have no support for an online platform to playtest the format.

I think you overestimate the importance of modern, but I think your point is actually what will people do with all the cards once a rotation hits standard. If so, the obvious answer is a new format that will grow with every new set added to arena, Maro's dream of a modern without fetches...

I genuinely don't think Wizards intends this client to be Modern-compatible. Or Legacy/EDH/Pauper/Vintage-compatible. My guess is that Arena is a way to put all the profit back in Wizards' hands, which means secondary market-supported formats don't really have a place in it. I also think Wizards has done some market research and realizes that Modern/Legacy/Vintage/etc. probably makes them the least amount of money despite being home to the most vocal and prominent players in online communities. Modern players don't crack packs or boxes. Most of us are infinite on MTGO to some extent, and I'm sure we generate very little revenue.

Wizards does recognize the value of non-rotating formats, but they want that power in their hands. Arena is a way to take that back. Hence, this gem from the FAQ:
https://magic.wizards.com/en/mtgarena/faq

Q. What happens when my cards rotate out of Standard?

A. The focus of MTG Arena will be on Standard card sets. We're working on fun ways for players to play with cards once they rotate out of Standard. We'll talk more about this later in the year.

This would be really bad news for Modern. Just as bad as it is for MTGO; anyone who thinks Wizards will support two systems that do essentially the same thing is lying to themselves.

Overall, it's clear that this first iteration of Arena is almost entirely about Wizards (Hasbro) making money and tapping into the Hearthstone market. That's not necessarily bad for the product or the average player, but it does not bode well for the average non-rotating format player. I know people are going to say "It's early! Don't panic!" but honestly, earlier versions of games tend to reveal a company's truer intentions. If a company makes changes due to public backlash, it's likely only a matter of time before they slowly work their old, original philosophies back into the game once people are too invested in it and the public outcry has moved on.

Quote from ktkenshinx »

...
This would be really bad news for Modern. Just as bad as it is for MTGO; anyone who thinks Wizards will support two systems that do essentially the same thing is lying to themselves. ...

I'm obviously a minority but I do agree that MTGO will suffer heavily from arena. To start with, if arena provides standard play and drafts on (essentially) FTP mode, then, if you are not interested in things like MOCS, why would you pay top dollar for the privilege of playing standard in MTGO? Couple that with the fact that standard is the main driver of people into MTGO and you remove a steady stream of players. How many people will be left to play things like commander or legacy leagues? With the inevitable removal of further modes of play due to the absence of players, begins a progressive emptying of MTGO that will drive more people to arena, hence perpetuating the process. Having seen the arena economy article I honestly fail to see how it will not impact big time on MTGO. I also wonder for how long will WotC be willing to run two internally competing products when they both will struggle heavily to compete with the other digital offerings. I think we have not been told yet, but I do think MTGO already has an expiry date for WotC. Maybe I'm seeing the glass half-empty but I see no arguments to convince me otherwise.

I for one will definitely sell off a bunch of my products in paper and mtgo if modern doesn't become playable online in some form. If I can't get a bunch of practice on my decks there's no way I'm investing more money.

Then again, I'm not cracking packs so people like me aren't a big loss. I mainly effect the secondary market

Yeah all these posts seem on the mark to me. I work in software and when you design an eventual replacement, you dont support 2 products, especially when one product (MTGO) is a flaming dumpster of what feels like late 90's software.

I think I'll probably sell out on MTGO as I have mostly done in Paper, maybe keep a UWR core just for fun, but...yeah. If Arena wont support modern, MTGO is not long for this world (a few years) before it dries out.

Mtgo is definitely done if arena comes through.

Also, is arena playable on a mac?

Because it's pretty stupid ******* I have to use my wife's window laptop to play. And no, I'm not going through loopholes to make mtgo playable on a mac.

Maybe arena will eventually have a store available for singles that leave the secondary market out.

Quote from Spsiegel1987 »

Mtgo is definitely done if arena comes through.

Also, is arena playable on a mac?

Because it's pretty stupid ******* I have to use my wife's window laptop to play. And no, I'm not going through loopholes to make mtgo playable on a mac.

Maybe arena will eventually have a store available for singles that leave the secondary market out.

It's based on unity, so it should be playable in any digital platform (For ex. Heartsone is also based on unity)

Quote from Spsiegel1987 »

Mtgo is definitely done if arena comes through.

At this point, I don't think there is if any more. Arena will be launched sooner or later and we all agree there is no way they sustain 2 different clients. Non-rotating format players will have to rely on cockatrice and XMage for online playtesting. It is likely that wizards will stop caring about them since they won't be directly competitors to Arena any more.

Not a good time to start playing Modern, I suppose. I hope they launch a new non-rotating format, sooner or later, and start supporting it at least.

If I have to rely on cockatrice I'll probably just cash out of mtg as a whole, maybe keeping gbx staples. I'd probably get into heart stone or something

Quote from Spsiegel1987 »

If I have to rely on cockatrice I'll probably just cash out of mtg as a whole, maybe keeping gbx staples. I'd probably get into heart stone or something

Yeah, I've been thinking on this since last night, and its simply too similar to how my own company did things.

New Product - Less dense, less features. However much newer interface, code, and more easily supported.

Old Product - Super dense code, rich feature set. However the code was a disaster to maintain, and as we lost staff over the years it became more and more difficult to support.

We pushed new clients to the new platform, however old clients using the rich feature set would not budge. We lost a ton of clients over it when executives said it was time to move on from the old platform, and literally we pissed away millions.

We, Modern exclusive players, are those old clients. If Arena will not support us, then Wizards will just up and say goodbye.

I'm with you Spsiegel. I'll keep my UWR staples, and thats it. I had already done that in paper for the most part, but I dont see Modern online, lasting another 5 years.

Its sad because I simply will not pay to run on the mouse wheel that is Standard, if thats how people like to spend their hobby money, good on them, but to me, its literally flushing cash down the drain.

Depressing conversation on here. Is the MTGO revenue from league fees, ticket purchases, etc. really so marginal compared to the cost to support?