Woof. Another Top 8, another double Phoenix, the joke is that once we get a few events without DOUBLE Phoenix top 8s, people will claim the format has adjusted.
No decks had this run in some time, not even close.
As to the rest. Aggro, Aggro, Tron, posterboy of Linear 'I dont care to interact' Aggro Bogles, Burn (aka Aggro), and Titanshift.
Like I said, the only reason Phoenix isn't getting nuked from orbit is because Horizon and WAR are supposed to shake things up enough. But under any other circumstances, something from the deck WILL be going at the next B&R. And who knows, they might just do that anyway.
Like I said, the only reason Phoenix isn't getting nuked from orbit is because Horizon and WAR are supposed to shake things up enough. But under any other circumstances, something from the deck WILL be going at the next B&R. And who knows, they might just do that anyway.
That's true.
At least it won't win this time, not that it changes anything but still.
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My decks:
Modern:
Mardu Pyromancer
Grixis Shadow
Traverse Shadow
Jund
Abzan
The Rock
I hope Mox Opal doesn't get banned. Colourless decks got two new very good cards in Ugin and Karn that can give them a boost, but I always hope attention is taken off Mox Opal hehe. I just love artifact and eldrazi decks and don't want to see them get a smack in the face.
I hope Mox Opal doesn't get banned. Colourless decks got two new very good cards in Ugin and Karn that can give them a boost, but I always hope attention is taken off Mox Opal hehe. I just love artifact and eldrazi decks and don't want to see them get a smack in the face.
I wouldn't worry too much about the colorless decks. Tron and Whir Prison (plus others) are definitely powerful, Tier 1 Modern strategies that do broken things. But they appear to just be some of the many powerful, Tier 1 Modern strategies that do broken things which Wizards wants to encourage in this format. Only one Opal deck has strong performance numbers right now, Whir Prison, and that deck hasn't even hit early-2018 KCI levels yet. Given that KCI took 12 months of sustained overperformance and win-rate dominance to enter the ban crosshairs, I'm pretty confident saying Whir Prison is probably fine at current levels. No other Opal deck is even close to Prison's performance, and even collectively they probably have less metagame share than something like Dredge, GDS, Humans, or Tron individually, to say nothing of Phoenix.
So humans dominates the tournament and we still have people here obsessing over phoenix?
Nothing in phoenix is worth of a ban. Not even close. Honestly the people that want a ban on phoenix are the same ones that complain about every new deck.
Accept a deck will always be the best deck and you camt ban that away. Instead focus on becoming a better player.
I hope Mox Opal doesn't get banned. Colourless decks got two new very good cards in Ugin and Karn that can give them a boost, but I always hope attention is taken off Mox Opal hehe. I just love artifact and eldrazi decks and don't want to see them get a smack in the face.
I wouldn't worry too much about the colorless decks. Tron and Whir Prison (plus others) are definitely powerful, Tier 1 Modern strategies that do broken things. But they appear to just be some of the many powerful, Tier 1 Modern strategies that do broken things which Wizards wants to encourage in this format. Only one Opal deck has strong performance numbers right now, Whir Prison, and that deck hasn't even hit early-2018 KCI levels yet. Given that KCI took 12 months of sustained overperformance and win-rate dominance to enter the ban crosshairs, I'm pretty confident saying Whir Prison is probably fine at current levels. No other Opal deck is even close to Prison's performance, and even collectively they probably have less metagame share than something like Dredge, GDS, Humans, or Tron individually, to say nothing of Phoenix.
only because Kci was banned away. It could be survive if they targeted mox instead. It's like banning Phoenix and talking after how fine looting is
Yeah, and Whir Prison isn't even represented that much in the top of tournament listings I see.
I just know they've mentioned Mox Opal in pretty much every ban post saying it's in The Eye of Sauron's gaze. I just think banning it would tear out Artifact strategies from the meta completely.
And yeah, people complain about Phoenix decks, but if fiahtless looting or something else like that got banned, another archetype or card would pop up and people would call for that to be banned too hehe.
I just love artifact and colourless decks, so I don't want Mox to be banned. Like mentioned earlier, artifact decks aren't really having strong showings compared to other archetypes anyway.
I would just be sad if I sink money into a playset and they get banned hehe. I'm really hooked on colourless decks, especially with the new Karn and Ugin
So humans dominates the tournament and we still have people here obsessing over phoenix?
Nothing in phoenix is worth of a ban. Not even close. Honestly the people that want a ban on phoenix are the same ones that complain about every new deck.
Accept a deck will always be the best deck and you camt ban that away. Instead focus on becoming a better player.
Who's asking for bans? Who's saying there wont be a best deck?
Name me a deck that with regularity, is dropping 2 copies on average into top 8's of (near every?) major event for months on end. Thats not remarkable?
As to Humans, its just the circle of life.
Phoenix - Can falter to interaction. (Rock, GDS)
Humans - Overwhelms fair decks or bypasses spell based permission (Rock, GDS)
Yeah, and Whir Prison isn't even represented that much in the top of tournament listings I see.
I just know they've mentioned Mox Opal in pretty much every ban post saying it's in The Eye of Sauron's gaze. I just think banning it would tear out Artifact strategies from the meta completely.
And yeah, people complain about Phoenix decks, but if fiahtless looting or something else like that got banned, another archetype or card would pop up and people would call for that to be banned too hehe.
I just love artifact and colourless decks, so I don't want Mox to be banned. Like mentioned earlier, artifact decks aren't really having strong showings compared to other archetypes anyway.
I would just be sad if I sink money into a playset and they get banned hehe. I'm really hooked on colourless decks, especially with the new Karn and Ugin
but that's happened with Kci. It was killed and if it was mox only, they could survived. Now whir prison come with a very high winrate, and even like Kci not played much at beginning, they will rise and rise... Till maybe next banning. I don't want this, so if this will really come true anytime in future, please ban mox and free Kci instead
So humans dominates the tournament and we still have people here obsessing over phoenix?
Nothing in phoenix is worth of a ban. Not even close. Honestly the people that want a ban on phoenix are the same ones that complain about every new deck.
Accept a deck will always be the best deck and you camt ban that away. Instead focus on becoming a better player.
Who's asking for bans? Who's saying there wont be a best deck?
Name me a deck that with regularity, is dropping 2 copies on average into top 8's of (near every?) major event for months on end. Thats not remarkable?
As to Humans, its just the circle of life.
Phoenix - Can falter to interaction. (Rock, GDS)
Humans - Overwhelms fair decks or bypasses spell based permission (Rock, GDS)
Simple as that.
2 copies in top 8 is compeletely fine. Twin and pod were much worse for years.
Leave phoenix as is. Leave dredge as is. The meta is in a great spot.
2 copies in top 8 is compeletely fine. Twin and pod were much worse for years.
ur phoenix has had an average of 2 copies per top 8 in 8 consecutive GPs since Ross Merriam popularized the current build at the beginning of december last year.
GP Sao Paulo (04/12) - 2 copies
GP Calgary (03/31) - 1 copy
GP Tampa (3/15) - 4 copies
GP Bilbao (3/15) - 2 copies
GP LA (3/02) - 2 copies
GP Toronto (2/10) - 2 copies
GP Oakland (1/06) - 1 copy (KCI legal)
GP Portland (12/08) - 2 copies (KCI legal)
we can debate whether phoenix is too good or if anything can or should be done about it. however it doesnt change the reality that no deck has done something like this since DRS gbx (maybe delver cruise). yes that includes both twin and pod.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
2 copies in top 8 is compeletely fine. Twin and pod were much worse for years.
I'm sure you have the data to back that up.
You can certainly leave Phoenix/Dredge as they are, nobody is asking for ban's here, but lets not make things up and pass it off as truth when we have the data.
And yes, please do unban Stoneforge, the sooner that card is free to do nothing, the better.
Who cares? Don't ride ban train or force it... Whoooo cares? We hate bans
not caring, or not wanting bans is completely fine. im personally pretty ambivalent about it. i played the deck for a few weeks then sold the birds and manamorposes into the hype.
the point is that no matter what your stance is you have to acknowledge that its success in high profile tournaments is absurdly high. which includes the fact that decks in the past had cards banned under similar circumstances.
maybe its just a coincidence, maybe the format is correcting itself, or maybe WAR and MH1 will shift the format somewhere else. we can hope these things are true, but cant be certain about them. similarly if you assume that phoenix maintains this established trajectory the result would have the deck sporting 30+ GP top8s within a calender year. so you gotta question whether you are fine with that, and reconcile that other previous decks/cards were not given similar treatment. likely to never see the light of day again given wizards stubborn adherence to conservative ban list management.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
To be honest, I don't see UR Phoenix that way. CFB reported a 50% win rate of the deck. This is fine, if you ask me. It's just that lots of people wanted to play a UR deck, since it's fun and people seen to like playing it.
That was enough to get banned in the past. As was its GP dominance. The single, and only, reason it wouldn't be banned now is that they expect Horizons to sufficiently shake things up. Under any normal circumstances, the deck would be gone. There is absolutely no question about that. If it's not, then the entire format's history worth of ban precedence is meaningless.
To be honest, I don't see UR Phoenix that way. CFB reported a 50% win rate of the deck. This is fine, if you ask me. It's just that lots of people wanted to play a UR deck, since it's fun and people seen to like playing it.
The deck was 50% at the latest GP, with the deck warping itself to win in the mirror, and the format warping around itself to beat it...yet it still posted a greater than 50 win%. That's impressive. If you don't cherry pick your data Phoenix has been running between 53-58%. You can argue not to ban something without resorting to obviously ridiculous lies and half truths.
The deck was 50% at the latest GP, with the deck warping itself to win in the mirror, and the format warping around itself to beat it...yet it still posted a greater than 50 win%. That's impressive. If you don't cherry pick your data Phoenix has been running between 53-58%. You can argue not to ban something without resorting to obviously ridiculous lies and half truths.
I just dont see why the 'b' word is being used at all. Nobody is asking for bans that I can see.
re·mark·a·ble
adjective
worthy of attention; striking.
Its top 8 rate is simply remarkable.
EDIT: Top 8, not so much Win rate, once it hit large enough numbers for the 'average' player to start picking it up.
It's so easy to see on this new decklist rule who likes linear noninteractive games and who doesn't.
I'm a Jund player and I hate the new decklist rule. I don't like big sweeping changes like London mulligan or this decklist thing when the game is great already and just needs finessing here and there, depending on format.
Out of curiosity, why do you hate it?
Primarily grumpy old man reasons. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. And if it's only slightly broke, why feel the need to make such sweeping changes?
Regarding the decklist rule specifically, I've always thought that correctly assessing your opponent's game plan, deck, and possible cards in deck was a skill based on knowledge of the applicable format. I don't like changes that take skills away from the game. It makes experience and practice much less important.
the win rate is just an average taken over players of varying skill levels. it isnt a literal representation of how much any given person can win with the deck. the more players piloting a deck means that range of skill levels likely widens, thus pulling win rates towards some expected value around 50/50. its why win rates for decks usually always float in that area given enough match data; yet we arent here claiming 10+ decks are '50/50'. this is also why decks like kci, amulet, or whir that have a smaller population have frequently shown top win rates; because the influence of any one highly skilled player is greater. couple that with barriers, perceived or otherwise, that keep less skilled players away and the difference is only more pronounced.
so the GP results are what they are; the reality we have to rationalize/explain. right now im seeing claims that a deck that presumably can win only half the time is coincidentally posting these level of results because the number of players.
according to tobi henke's GP analysis articles going back 4-5 months, where he tries to measure representation of the day 1 fields, UR phoenix started out near 5% in dec-jan, increased to around 8% in feb, and broke into 11-13% range in march making it the most played deck. in the case of GP calgary burn actually beat out phoenix as the most played. note the consistency of the GP placements during this period of ramping popularity.
the stellar day 2 representation that meets those day 1 numbers, and in cases exceeding them by a good amount, therefore is probably because of the decks day 2 conversion rate. which would in turn explain the abnormally high top8 conversions.
so consider a deck roughly 1 in 10 GP attendants are bringing to the event, with a 50% win-rate, placing multiple copies in the top 8 on average for 8 consecutive events (where the environment is increasingly hostile towards the strategy no less). i dont know about you but at face value that seems absurdly improbable. more likely there is something else going on.
granted i think there are plenty of justifications for UR phoenix's success that go beyond the decks power level, most of which deal with the decks qualities that tournament grinders find attractive and the timeline of the events themselves. that said, i believe anything along the lines of 'look at its 50% win rate, its just a lot of players' does little to nothing to explain what the deck has accomplished.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
Hey look, another double Phoenix Top 8. And, depending on how you classify Humans, essentially entirely linear/aggro.
Javier Villouta - Burn
Pedro Gonzalez - TitanShift
Leonardo Oliveira Graichen - Izzet Phoenix
Henrique Heylmann - Izzet Phoenix
Sergio Ferry - Bogles
Andres Cifuentes - Humans
Marlos Batista Ferreira - Tron
Matheus Crusius - Humans
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Woof. Another Top 8, another double Phoenix, the joke is that once we get a few events without DOUBLE Phoenix top 8s, people will claim the format has adjusted.
No decks had this run in some time, not even close.
As to the rest. Aggro, Aggro, Tron, posterboy of Linear 'I dont care to interact' Aggro Bogles, Burn (aka Aggro), and Titanshift.
6 Aggro, 2 Big Mana.
*whistles while waiting on Spark/Horizons*
Spirits
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
That's true.
At least it won't win this time, not that it changes anything but still.
Modern:
Mardu Pyromancer
Grixis Shadow
Traverse Shadow
Jund
Abzan
The Rock
I wouldn't worry too much about the colorless decks. Tron and Whir Prison (plus others) are definitely powerful, Tier 1 Modern strategies that do broken things. But they appear to just be some of the many powerful, Tier 1 Modern strategies that do broken things which Wizards wants to encourage in this format. Only one Opal deck has strong performance numbers right now, Whir Prison, and that deck hasn't even hit early-2018 KCI levels yet. Given that KCI took 12 months of sustained overperformance and win-rate dominance to enter the ban crosshairs, I'm pretty confident saying Whir Prison is probably fine at current levels. No other Opal deck is even close to Prison's performance, and even collectively they probably have less metagame share than something like Dredge, GDS, Humans, or Tron individually, to say nothing of Phoenix.
Nothing in phoenix is worth of a ban. Not even close. Honestly the people that want a ban on phoenix are the same ones that complain about every new deck.
Accept a deck will always be the best deck and you camt ban that away. Instead focus on becoming a better player.
I just know they've mentioned Mox Opal in pretty much every ban post saying it's in The Eye of Sauron's gaze. I just think banning it would tear out Artifact strategies from the meta completely.
And yeah, people complain about Phoenix decks, but if fiahtless looting or something else like that got banned, another archetype or card would pop up and people would call for that to be banned too hehe.
I just love artifact and colourless decks, so I don't want Mox to be banned. Like mentioned earlier, artifact decks aren't really having strong showings compared to other archetypes anyway.
I would just be sad if I sink money into a playset and they get banned hehe. I'm really hooked on colourless decks, especially with the new Karn and Ugin
Who's asking for bans? Who's saying there wont be a best deck?
Name me a deck that with regularity, is dropping 2 copies on average into top 8's of (near every?) major event for months on end. Thats not remarkable?
As to Humans, its just the circle of life.
Phoenix - Can falter to interaction. (Rock, GDS)
Humans - Overwhelms fair decks or bypasses spell based permission (Rock, GDS)
Simple as that.
Spirits
2 copies in top 8 is compeletely fine. Twin and pod were much worse for years.
Leave phoenix as is. Leave dredge as is. The meta is in a great spot.
Unban stoneforge
ur phoenix has had an average of 2 copies per top 8 in 8 consecutive GPs since Ross Merriam popularized the current build at the beginning of december last year.
GP Sao Paulo (04/12) - 2 copies
GP Calgary (03/31) - 1 copy
GP Tampa (3/15) - 4 copies
GP Bilbao (3/15) - 2 copies
GP LA (3/02) - 2 copies
GP Toronto (2/10) - 2 copies
GP Oakland (1/06) - 1 copy (KCI legal)
GP Portland (12/08) - 2 copies (KCI legal)
we can debate whether phoenix is too good or if anything can or should be done about it. however it doesnt change the reality that no deck has done something like this since DRS gbx (maybe delver cruise). yes that includes both twin and pod.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)I'm sure you have the data to back that up.
You can certainly leave Phoenix/Dredge as they are, nobody is asking for ban's here, but lets not make things up and pass it off as truth when we have the data.
And yes, please do unban Stoneforge, the sooner that card is free to do nothing, the better.
Spirits
the point is that no matter what your stance is you have to acknowledge that its success in high profile tournaments is absurdly high. which includes the fact that decks in the past had cards banned under similar circumstances.
maybe its just a coincidence, maybe the format is correcting itself, or maybe WAR and MH1 will shift the format somewhere else. we can hope these things are true, but cant be certain about them. similarly if you assume that phoenix maintains this established trajectory the result would have the deck sporting 30+ GP top8s within a calender year. so you gotta question whether you are fine with that, and reconcile that other previous decks/cards were not given similar treatment. likely to never see the light of day again given wizards stubborn adherence to conservative ban list management.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)That was enough to get banned in the past. As was its GP dominance. The single, and only, reason it wouldn't be banned now is that they expect Horizons to sufficiently shake things up. Under any normal circumstances, the deck would be gone. There is absolutely no question about that. If it's not, then the entire format's history worth of ban precedence is meaningless.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
The deck was 50% at the latest GP, with the deck warping itself to win in the mirror, and the format warping around itself to beat it...yet it still posted a greater than 50 win%. That's impressive. If you don't cherry pick your data Phoenix has been running between 53-58%. You can argue not to ban something without resorting to obviously ridiculous lies and half truths.
I just dont see why the 'b' word is being used at all. Nobody is asking for bans that I can see.
re·mark·a·ble
adjective
worthy of attention; striking.
Its top 8 rate is simply remarkable.
EDIT: Top 8, not so much Win rate, once it hit large enough numbers for the 'average' player to start picking it up.
Spirits
Regarding the decklist rule specifically, I've always thought that correctly assessing your opponent's game plan, deck, and possible cards in deck was a skill based on knowledge of the applicable format. I don't like changes that take skills away from the game. It makes experience and practice much less important.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
so the GP results are what they are; the reality we have to rationalize/explain. right now im seeing claims that a deck that presumably can win only half the time is coincidentally posting these level of results because the number of players.
according to tobi henke's GP analysis articles going back 4-5 months, where he tries to measure representation of the day 1 fields, UR phoenix started out near 5% in dec-jan, increased to around 8% in feb, and broke into 11-13% range in march making it the most played deck. in the case of GP calgary burn actually beat out phoenix as the most played. note the consistency of the GP placements during this period of ramping popularity.
the stellar day 2 representation that meets those day 1 numbers, and in cases exceeding them by a good amount, therefore is probably because of the decks day 2 conversion rate. which would in turn explain the abnormally high top8 conversions.
so consider a deck roughly 1 in 10 GP attendants are bringing to the event, with a 50% win-rate, placing multiple copies in the top 8 on average for 8 consecutive events (where the environment is increasingly hostile towards the strategy no less). i dont know about you but at face value that seems absurdly improbable. more likely there is something else going on.
granted i think there are plenty of justifications for UR phoenix's success that go beyond the decks power level, most of which deal with the decks qualities that tournament grinders find attractive and the timeline of the events themselves. that said, i believe anything along the lines of 'look at its 50% win rate, its just a lot of players' does little to nothing to explain what the deck has accomplished.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Spirits