Some budget decks are modifications of pre-existing decks that replace expensive cards with less-effective and cheaper alternatives. In my opinion, U/R Kiln Fiend combo is not one of these decks. Rather, I believe that the list posted below is in optimal form.
The goal of this deck is to resolve three spells, including Assault Strobe, with a Kiln Fiend or Nivix Cyclops in play. As such, these central creatures are the only ones in a land-light, instant-heavy deck. This strategy has existed in Pauper since the release of Kiln Fiend and has been dominant in the all-common format since Dragon's Maze.
The cards can be broken down into categories of Mana, Win conditions, Search, and Protection, with some cards bleeding into different purposes.
Mana
The deck has a heavy blue mana requirement, so the emphasis here is on Islands. Often, on your kill turn, you will spend UUR to cast two cantrips and an Assault Strobe.
Win conditions
These two creatures provide the most reward for each instant or sorcery cast. Kiln Fiend can provide a turn three win in the right match-ups, but more often, you are reliably able to play and protect him on turn three for a turn four win. This puts the deck on par with most Modern combo: a turn three kill available, a turn four kill reliable.
The advantages of Nivix Cyclops over its partner are its built-in protection with a toughness of 4 and its ability to grind out some match-ups against aggressive strategies. Unfortunately, he can be slow and cumbersome to play when you know you also have to protect him.
Assault Strobe and Artful Dodge can be grouped in with victory conditions, as they do not search and often do not protect. I say "often" because Assault Strobe can be used as removal, granting your creature first strike to clear a blocker for a future turn.
Assault Strobe can be unnecessary in Modern, where players can get themselves to 15 life (fetch, shock, Thoughtseize) before you have even taken a turn. Still, it is too often vital not to play less than 4. This deck has a smoothness of play similar to Living End that allows you to "go off" multiple times in a game if needed, due to its heavy cantrip component.
Artful Dodge is often sided out, but without any trample or evasion effects available, it is essential in a format that includes mana dorks, Faerie Rogue tokens, and Spectral Procession. Its flashback is an obvious benefit as well whenever your hand is either spell-light or consists only of counters. If I don't have many cards to bring in in a match-up, I will keep Artful Dodge in for its "UU: Kiln Fiend or Nivix Cyclops gets +6/+0 until end of turn" play.
Search
What Izzet Blitz loses from Pauper is Ponder and Preordain. Admittedly, these are hard losses, and inadequately replaced by Peek and Serum Visions.
Peek does prove that its worth in Modern is infinitely greater than in Pauper, however, as it gives you information about what removal or counters are available to your opponent and necessary for you. If Splinter Twin players are doing it, why shouldn't we? Between Gitaxian Probe and this, you will know two things: 1) When you NEED to go off, and 2) What you need to prevent your opponent stopping you. I would not say that this deck plays as well as Legacy Solidarity, Reveillark combo, or Ad Nauseam, which can all win at instant speed in their final hour, but you will definitely know which one of your turns is going to be your last chance.
My only suggestion, in this 18-land deck, is that you play Serum Visions before Sleight of Hand in the opening turns, digging five cards deep but selecting the last to go to your hand instead of on top of your library.
Protection
Arguments against the existence of many Modern combo decks include, first and foremost, their inability to interact. Well, this deck interacts. Dispel and Spell Pierce not only protect your creatures from removal, discard, and counters, but also give this deck the edge over other Modern combo. Your opponents will not do as many silly things with Open The Vaults, Goryo's Vengeance, etc. thanks to this component of the deck.
Apostle's Blessing pulls double-duty here as protection against removal and evasion for your creatures.
If you're tempted to play Wee Dragonauts or Mutagenic Growth, then please read the deck's goal again. Both are very bad. Similarly, Niv-Magus Elemental combo is a different strategy and doesn't belong. We want all of our spells to resolve.
Echoing Truth is here mainly because of Spellskite. He isn't the worst thing that can happen to you, unlike Infect decks, because Kiln Fiend and Nivix Cyclops benefit from all your cantrips, but Truth is versatile enough against tokens, Spellskite, and Twin that it makes it in.
Leyline of Sanctity is neither castable nor budget-friendly, but for the time being, I cannot find a better card against discard.
Skullcrack is my current option of choice against Soul Sisters. There exist also Leyline of Punishment and Everlasting Torment, but here we have an instant. I have also defeated a turn 2 6/6 Serra Ascendant in game, simply because double strike and multiple Fiends or Cyclops can get ridiculous.
Swan Song, in my opinion, pushes this deck up a notch. It could possibly go in the maindeck at some point because I side it in nearly every match-up. The bird token is a non-issue because of your protection and inability to be blocked, but the disruption it provides to the opponent and protection it provides you are immeasurably good.
What to do with less:
Shivan Reef, Sulfur Falls, and Steam Vents are the cards that hurt the most in the maindeck. I feel like all 10 are pretty necessary, but maybe with Manamorphose you could replace some with a mix of Islands and Mountains.
Leyline of Sanctity has to be replaced by something that protects you from discard but still isn't as bad as Witchbane Orb. My only ideas right now are Negate or some form of Envelop that is Modern-legal.
I was in the middle of a primer on this, you beat me to it. Anyways, maybe add in the travis woo grixis version with Tainted Strike as another list. The manabase for that is something for you to make.
Off the top of my head, I can think of a budget Grixis and a slighly less budget Grixis. The only difference would be the mana-base. I personally don't see a need for the Tainted Strikes, but I see why they're tempting, and I like the proactive discard.
Tainted Strike doesn't seem to fill a void that the deck has. The things this concept wants are better ways to find and protect Kiln Fiend and/or Nivix Cyclops.
Here, though, for review, is the mega-budget Grixis list.
Budget:
4 Darkslick Shores
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
2 Watery Grave
2 Steam Vents
3 City of Brass
1 Island
1 Mountain
1 Swamp
4 Nivix Cyclops
4 Kiln Fiend
4 Serum Visions
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Sleight of Hand
One advantage of the grixis list is only needing tainted+assault, or tainted+thoughtseize/inquisition/anything. The single best part is the ability to hit your opponents' removal before they use it, or to make sure the coast is clear to go in.
If you're tempted to play Wee Dragonauts or Mutagenic Growth, then please read the deck's goal again. Both are very bad. Similarly, Niv-Magus Elemental combo is a different strategy and doesn't belong. We want all of our spells to resolve.
Because you say it, it must be true...
Mutagenic Growth is exactly what this deck wants, Gut Shot is also a card for this deck. Free spells are free pumps. A resolved Cyclops or Fiend needs a lot of help getting there - You want to keep counter/Blessing mana open while still pumping your guy. Growth and Gut Shot help you get there.
Finally you need more creatures. You're asking for trouble with only 8 creatures. Even Bogle runs more than 8 creatures and those come with built in protection. Delver of Secrets and Elemental are both options that I've toyed with in a Grixis version (since getting rid of my Tarns I don't think the Grixis shell works as well without that mana consistency).
I've liked Manamorphose because free draw spells are good.
If anyone is looking to go extreme budget on this build, I built a $5 version of this deck a long while back, I played it a little on Cockatrice and it was pretty good. I can't remember the list but it was on the old budget deck forum we use to have, but I've been unable to locate the thread. Does anyone know where that thread went? but for suggestions on this thread form memory, Immolating souleater was a really strong card that you could easily use to burst opponents out of no where to the same level of a kiln fiend, although unless you have assault strobe in hand, it's better to wait wait till they're a little lower before you try burst them out.
Well, way to fire off shots early, I suppose. Nevermind that this statement works both ways.
Mutagenic Growth is strictly a pump spell. The only other cards like it that are in the deck are Assault Strobe in the Izzet version and Tainted Strike in the Grixis version. Comparatively, Growth is sooo underpowered. All cards serve the purpose of drawing, providing evasion, or protecting. Against enough decks to be relevant, Mutagenic Growth still requires that we play three spells on the kill turn, because +3 is the magic number. The card isn't even played in the Pauper lists. On the other hand, the advantage of Mutagenic Growth is against Lightning Bolt on your Kiln Fiend; I'll grant that. So in the end, since I'm really not as stubborn as you indicate, I'm happy to arrive at a conclusion that makes for the optimal deck. What cards would you remove for what quantity of Mutagenic Growth? We don't just "put them in" to a 64 card deck.
The 8 Peek effects help make up for 8 creatures. Discard helps even more in the Grixis list. Comparing Izzet Blitz and Bogle is not really fair because the latter has no draw engine or counters. Delver is a good idea in Pauper where mono-black control is rampant, and attrition is a necessity. It is good to have a lightning rod against Jund and RW/x, and Delver minimizes the necessity for Assault Strobe. So, cards come at a cost: what do you cut?
Manamorphose, ok, what do you cut?
I can rattle off plenty of cards that are good here. They just aren't good enough. Faithless Looting, Izzet Charm, Electrolyze, Double Cleave, Lightning Bolt, Quicken... all of these have their uses. But in the end, we're making a 60-card deck, so "you need x" is a terrible deck analysis. Finally, I probably won't cut cards that help me on every turn (not just the winning turn) for ones that only help me on the winning turn. So there is that stipulation. Mutagenic Growth and Manamorphose won't go in over interactive spells. Delver could make it in over Peek or Spell Pierce, since essentially they serve similar functions.
You can't just write - 'read the goal again' as a justification for not including Mutagenic Growth and/or Nivmagus Elemental. That's kind of what I'm saying.
Peek is my first cut. It just doesn't do anything other than replace itself. I'd much rather have creatures 9-12 here. If you want you could have more protection, but again - you don't want to be dead to the first kill card you see. And they're all over the place.
So I suggest running 12 creatures - the 8 you've suggested and one of Nivmagus Elemental or Delver of Secrets. Otherwise you're going to be mulling a lot, since you can't keep a 0 creature hand. I could even be convinced that Guttersnipe could work.
This deck is about the alpha strike - not trying to do it over two turns. That gives your opponent too much time to set up defences (and they will set up defences). That's why I suggest Mutagenic Growth and 2x Gut Shot - they help you on your kill turn.
Now as far as sideboarding goes - you bring in more protection (usually for Serum Visions) - some Mizzium Skin, maybe Vapor Snag. You may want some more counterspells in the board, but the problem with them is that if your opponent tries to remove the creature in their turn - you 'waste' a spell that could pump your creature. Alternatively you're keeping up countermagic mana and thus not able to pump your creature as required.
I think you're too counter heavy in game 1, and Peek and Sleight of Hand aren't the greatest options around.
Ok, I guess I should write in the OP my philosophy behind the building of the deck. It seems to be where you and I differ on a fundamental level. The all-in, uninteractive approach has been tried. Many play it often with Blistercoil Weird and Nivmagus Elemental combo decks. The ratio of attempts to success has been extremely poor, though.
As deckbuilders, we have to either discard this idea for its age and lack of success, or approach it in a different way. The latter is what I have done here. I want to interact with the opponent on turns 1-3 and win on turn 4 with protection.
The free spells and not resolving spells (with Nivmagus) ideas have had their day. No one should invest any more time into them. It is a very intuitive concept, and Wizards basically built the deck for us.
I never intended to indicate that my forum post is sufficient evidence. The unfortunate truth is that the burden of proof is on anyone wanting to play a deck like this because despite its ease of acquisition and development, there is not a single list with results on mtgo-stats or mtgpulse. Therefore the burden of proof is on all of us, really. Nevertheless, I have tested many games in 2-mans and the Tournament Practice room with the list I have posted.
Still, I can agree to play 4 Apostle's Blessing and possibly include some Delver. We also agree that it is about an alpha strike turn. I just believe in chaining cantrips for pumps and card quality, and you believe in maintaining a large hand size until the kill turn. In my opinion, you're asking a lot of a Modern deck in its current format.
I also don't agree that you mulligan any hand without a creature. You rifle through your deck pretty handily, and so the lack of testing and evidence to back up your posts is clear. You argue that I say something, and that is proof enough, but if you believe that seeing the opponent's hand with Peek is insignificant, or that you can't draw into a creature and keep any hand with a beater, then it's because you haven't played this approach or package to the deck. The Peeks and counters go together. The Peeks go together with the low creature count. I don't mean to be a poster that says "you have to try it, then you'll see," but I do want to point out that without any testing, you are doing exactly what you complained about in your opening contribution to this thread.
Just so we're clear - I played a Grixis version (not extensively because it was too glass cannon, and there's too much Thoughtseize in the world). (Turn 2 kill - T1 Delver, T2 Assault Strobe + Tainted Strike + Mutagenic Growth - that's a real thing. I ended up preferring Delver, even though people tell me Nivmagus is better).
Your version can't afford to mulligan without a creature because your probability of drawing one is so low - you'd end up with nothing in your hand. But that's the problem - you need to dig very quickly and hope you find what you're looking for. There's a massive consistency issue here - and I don't need to playtest to know that digging for one of eight cards (and needing to protect it) is a recipe for disaster.
The redundancy of 8 cards is in a pretty high percentile of Modern combo. Even Splinter Twin (access to the same cards here) plays 6-7 of their 2 combo pieces for which they search. Ad Nauseam searches for 1 of 4 and 1 of 6-7 (Angel's Grace, Phyrexian Unlife). Griselbrand looks for 1 Goryo's Vengeance out of 4.
I'm not particularly interested in a list that you have played in an FNM; that isn't evidence for much. People have gotten turn 2 kills with less cards (Immolating Souleater, SSG, Mountain, Assault Strobe), but that's not what we're discussing. Anyway, you got to the meat of the matter with: it was too glass cannon. All of your suggestions are going away from resiliency (with the exception of Delver and Apostle's Blessing) and into glass cannon mode.
From here it's just off to the races for results. I'm still playing in 2-mans and getting a feel for the massive format, but I'm going to throw it into a daily when I have three hours. Your results are giving up on the deck you played because it's bad, but still arguing for the card choices you had...
The unfortunate truth is that the burden of proof is on anyone wanting to play a deck like this because despite its ease of acquisition and development, there is not a single list with results on mtgo-stats or mtgpulse. Therefore the burden of proof is on all of us, really.
Newish to Modern, but I've been playing the Pauper version of this deck for awhile and have made adjustments so its Modern legal. I find this comment a bit disheartening, but also true. This deck tries to win in a single shot on turn 3 or 4, which is effectively the same thing an infect deck tries to do. Cheap creatures and cheap pump spells to get to 10 poison. Infect is still getting results in the dailies, so why can't this deck? They both suffer from the exact same down sides in that they crumble to cheap removal spells (bolt, path etc). The advantage this deck has is it can run counters (Spell Pierce or Dispel) to help push through the opposition. It can also make creatures unblockable, which infect doesn't do. I tested a bit on Cockatrice and had 3 people rage quit on me in a row b/c I had a turn 3 kill. It wasn't until the 6th game that a UR tempo deck beat me. I've since added 4 Dispel's to my sideboard for such matchups.
So... remind me again why this deck doesn't see more play?
Elemental Harbinger is great to be able to tutor for either Kiln or Nivmagus... Putting it on top of your deck is usually good enough because if you don't have an elemental, you should have plenty of gas and this is a deck you don't want to mulligan because you need lots of cards, not particularly of a certain quality.
Here is a similar deck that has placed highly in an event. So its a viable deck type. They are playing Death's Shadow as an additional threat because you can get your life total so low with all the phyrexian mana spells in it.
And yes, it has problems against decks that try to interact with your board. But with all the free instants Nivmagus is actually very resilient to Lightning bolt. Also, with Nivmagus on board T2 kills are not out of reach (I have done it on several occasions). In my view Nivmagus elemental is by far the best creature in the deck, he grows permanently and he is a super fast clock.
Another thing i will say is, that while i can see the merit of Spell Pierce out of the sideboard (because it's 1 mana) i think that having to keep up mana for counters fundamentally conflicts with the deck's plan. I'm all for the tempo plan and playing the reactive game, but then Kiln Fiend and Cyclops are not your guys, Delver of Secrets and Young Pyromancer are (and for non-budget ofc Snapcaster). These are cards that have good synergy with the draw-go, play cantrips and hold up mana for counters, plan.
I think you need to work out what you want to play, if you want to play blitz, go all-in on that plan and pray you opponent didn't draw his removal (or splash black for discard ), if you want to play the more grindy game with cantrips and counters, go with Delver and Pyromancer, you'll be happier for it (they are simply better cards).
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
The goal of this deck is to resolve three spells, including Assault Strobe, with a Kiln Fiend or Nivix Cyclops in play. As such, these central creatures are the only ones in a land-light, instant-heavy deck. This strategy has existed in Pauper since the release of Kiln Fiend and has been dominant in the all-common format since Dragon's Maze.
Izzet Blitz
The cards can be broken down into categories of Mana, Win conditions, Search, and Protection, with some cards bleeding into different purposes.
Mana
The deck has a heavy blue mana requirement, so the emphasis here is on Islands. Often, on your kill turn, you will spend UUR to cast two cantrips and an Assault Strobe.
Win conditions
These two creatures provide the most reward for each instant or sorcery cast. Kiln Fiend can provide a turn three win in the right match-ups, but more often, you are reliably able to play and protect him on turn three for a turn four win. This puts the deck on par with most Modern combo: a turn three kill available, a turn four kill reliable.
The advantages of Nivix Cyclops over its partner are its built-in protection with a toughness of 4 and its ability to grind out some match-ups against aggressive strategies. Unfortunately, he can be slow and cumbersome to play when you know you also have to protect him.
Assault Strobe and Artful Dodge can be grouped in with victory conditions, as they do not search and often do not protect. I say "often" because Assault Strobe can be used as removal, granting your creature first strike to clear a blocker for a future turn.
Assault Strobe can be unnecessary in Modern, where players can get themselves to 15 life (fetch, shock, Thoughtseize) before you have even taken a turn. Still, it is too often vital not to play less than 4. This deck has a smoothness of play similar to Living End that allows you to "go off" multiple times in a game if needed, due to its heavy cantrip component.
Artful Dodge is often sided out, but without any trample or evasion effects available, it is essential in a format that includes mana dorks, Faerie Rogue tokens, and Spectral Procession. Its flashback is an obvious benefit as well whenever your hand is either spell-light or consists only of counters. If I don't have many cards to bring in in a match-up, I will keep Artful Dodge in for its "UU: Kiln Fiend or Nivix Cyclops gets +6/+0 until end of turn" play.
Search
What Izzet Blitz loses from Pauper is Ponder and Preordain. Admittedly, these are hard losses, and inadequately replaced by Peek and Serum Visions.
Peek does prove that its worth in Modern is infinitely greater than in Pauper, however, as it gives you information about what removal or counters are available to your opponent and necessary for you. If Splinter Twin players are doing it, why shouldn't we? Between Gitaxian Probe and this, you will know two things: 1) When you NEED to go off, and 2) What you need to prevent your opponent stopping you. I would not say that this deck plays as well as Legacy Solidarity, Reveillark combo, or Ad Nauseam, which can all win at instant speed in their final hour, but you will definitely know which one of your turns is going to be your last chance.
My only suggestion, in this 18-land deck, is that you play Serum Visions before Sleight of Hand in the opening turns, digging five cards deep but selecting the last to go to your hand instead of on top of your library.
Protection
Arguments against the existence of many Modern combo decks include, first and foremost, their inability to interact. Well, this deck interacts. Dispel and Spell Pierce not only protect your creatures from removal, discard, and counters, but also give this deck the edge over other Modern combo. Your opponents will not do as many silly things with Open The Vaults, Goryo's Vengeance, etc. thanks to this component of the deck.
Apostle's Blessing pulls double-duty here as protection against removal and evasion for your creatures.
If you're tempted to play Wee Dragonauts or Mutagenic Growth, then please read the deck's goal again. Both are very bad. Similarly, Niv-Magus Elemental combo is a different strategy and doesn't belong. We want all of our spells to resolve.
Here is my sideboard:
Echoing Truth is here mainly because of Spellskite. He isn't the worst thing that can happen to you, unlike Infect decks, because Kiln Fiend and Nivix Cyclops benefit from all your cantrips, but Truth is versatile enough against tokens, Spellskite, and Twin that it makes it in.
Leyline of Sanctity is neither castable nor budget-friendly, but for the time being, I cannot find a better card against discard.
Skullcrack is my current option of choice against Soul Sisters. There exist also Leyline of Punishment and Everlasting Torment, but here we have an instant. I have also defeated a turn 2 6/6 Serra Ascendant in game, simply because double strike and multiple Fiends or Cyclops can get ridiculous.
Swan Song, in my opinion, pushes this deck up a notch. It could possibly go in the maindeck at some point because I side it in nearly every match-up. The bird token is a non-issue because of your protection and inability to be blocked, but the disruption it provides to the opponent and protection it provides you are immeasurably good.
What to do with more money:
Scalding Tarn are obviously better here than Sulfur Falls or Shivan Reef. They also allow you to splash black for Thoughtseize and Tainted Strike or green for Ancient Grudge.
What to do with less:
Shivan Reef, Sulfur Falls, and Steam Vents are the cards that hurt the most in the maindeck. I feel like all 10 are pretty necessary, but maybe with Manamorphose you could replace some with a mix of Islands and Mountains.
Leyline of Sanctity has to be replaced by something that protects you from discard but still isn't as bad as Witchbane Orb. My only ideas right now are Negate or some form of Envelop that is Modern-legal.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
Tainted Strike doesn't seem to fill a void that the deck has. The things this concept wants are better ways to find and protect Kiln Fiend and/or Nivix Cyclops.
Here, though, for review, is the mega-budget Grixis list.
Budget:
4 Darkslick Shores
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
2 Watery Grave
2 Steam Vents
3 City of Brass
1 Island
1 Mountain
1 Swamp
4 Nivix Cyclops
4 Kiln Fiend
4 Serum Visions
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Sleight of Hand
4 Tainted Strike
4 Assault Strobe
4 Artful Dodge
4 Apostle's Blessing
4 Thoughtseize
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
Because you say it, it must be true...
Mutagenic Growth is exactly what this deck wants, Gut Shot is also a card for this deck. Free spells are free pumps. A resolved Cyclops or Fiend needs a lot of help getting there - You want to keep counter/Blessing mana open while still pumping your guy. Growth and Gut Shot help you get there.
Finally you need more creatures. You're asking for trouble with only 8 creatures. Even Bogle runs more than 8 creatures and those come with built in protection. Delver of Secrets and Elemental are both options that I've toyed with in a Grixis version (since getting rid of my Tarns I don't think the Grixis shell works as well without that mana consistency).
I've liked Manamorphose because free draw spells are good.
Well, way to fire off shots early, I suppose. Nevermind that this statement works both ways.
Mutagenic Growth is strictly a pump spell. The only other cards like it that are in the deck are Assault Strobe in the Izzet version and Tainted Strike in the Grixis version. Comparatively, Growth is sooo underpowered. All cards serve the purpose of drawing, providing evasion, or protecting. Against enough decks to be relevant, Mutagenic Growth still requires that we play three spells on the kill turn, because +3 is the magic number. The card isn't even played in the Pauper lists. On the other hand, the advantage of Mutagenic Growth is against Lightning Bolt on your Kiln Fiend; I'll grant that. So in the end, since I'm really not as stubborn as you indicate, I'm happy to arrive at a conclusion that makes for the optimal deck. What cards would you remove for what quantity of Mutagenic Growth? We don't just "put them in" to a 64 card deck.
The 8 Peek effects help make up for 8 creatures. Discard helps even more in the Grixis list. Comparing Izzet Blitz and Bogle is not really fair because the latter has no draw engine or counters. Delver is a good idea in Pauper where mono-black control is rampant, and attrition is a necessity. It is good to have a lightning rod against Jund and RW/x, and Delver minimizes the necessity for Assault Strobe. So, cards come at a cost: what do you cut?
Manamorphose, ok, what do you cut?
I can rattle off plenty of cards that are good here. They just aren't good enough. Faithless Looting, Izzet Charm, Electrolyze, Double Cleave, Lightning Bolt, Quicken... all of these have their uses. But in the end, we're making a 60-card deck, so "you need x" is a terrible deck analysis. Finally, I probably won't cut cards that help me on every turn (not just the winning turn) for ones that only help me on the winning turn. So there is that stipulation. Mutagenic Growth and Manamorphose won't go in over interactive spells. Delver could make it in over Peek or Spell Pierce, since essentially they serve similar functions.
Peek is my first cut. It just doesn't do anything other than replace itself. I'd much rather have creatures 9-12 here. If you want you could have more protection, but again - you don't want to be dead to the first kill card you see. And they're all over the place.
For protection - you want 4 Apostle's Blessing, it saves you against Abrupt Decay - counter magic does not.
So I suggest running 12 creatures - the 8 you've suggested and one of Nivmagus Elemental or Delver of Secrets. Otherwise you're going to be mulling a lot, since you can't keep a 0 creature hand. I could even be convinced that Guttersnipe could work.
This deck is about the alpha strike - not trying to do it over two turns. That gives your opponent too much time to set up defences (and they will set up defences). That's why I suggest Mutagenic Growth and 2x Gut Shot - they help you on your kill turn.
So I need to find another 12 spots (because Manamorphose is good). Dispel, Spell Pierce, Sleight of Hand.
That gives the following list:
4 Nivmagus Elemental
4 Kiln Fiend
4 Nivix Cyclops
4 Assault Strobe
4 Manamorphose
4 Mutagenic Growth
4 Gitaxian Probe
2 Gut Shot
4 Artful Dodge
4 Serum Visions
Now as far as sideboarding goes - you bring in more protection (usually for Serum Visions) - some Mizzium Skin, maybe Vapor Snag. You may want some more counterspells in the board, but the problem with them is that if your opponent tries to remove the creature in their turn - you 'waste' a spell that could pump your creature. Alternatively you're keeping up countermagic mana and thus not able to pump your creature as required.
I think you're too counter heavy in game 1, and Peek and Sleight of Hand aren't the greatest options around.
As deckbuilders, we have to either discard this idea for its age and lack of success, or approach it in a different way. The latter is what I have done here. I want to interact with the opponent on turns 1-3 and win on turn 4 with protection.
The free spells and not resolving spells (with Nivmagus) ideas have had their day. No one should invest any more time into them. It is a very intuitive concept, and Wizards basically built the deck for us.
I never intended to indicate that my forum post is sufficient evidence. The unfortunate truth is that the burden of proof is on anyone wanting to play a deck like this because despite its ease of acquisition and development, there is not a single list with results on mtgo-stats or mtgpulse. Therefore the burden of proof is on all of us, really. Nevertheless, I have tested many games in 2-mans and the Tournament Practice room with the list I have posted.
Still, I can agree to play 4 Apostle's Blessing and possibly include some Delver. We also agree that it is about an alpha strike turn. I just believe in chaining cantrips for pumps and card quality, and you believe in maintaining a large hand size until the kill turn. In my opinion, you're asking a lot of a Modern deck in its current format.
I also don't agree that you mulligan any hand without a creature. You rifle through your deck pretty handily, and so the lack of testing and evidence to back up your posts is clear. You argue that I say something, and that is proof enough, but if you believe that seeing the opponent's hand with Peek is insignificant, or that you can't draw into a creature and keep any hand with a beater, then it's because you haven't played this approach or package to the deck. The Peeks and counters go together. The Peeks go together with the low creature count. I don't mean to be a poster that says "you have to try it, then you'll see," but I do want to point out that without any testing, you are doing exactly what you complained about in your opening contribution to this thread.
Your version can't afford to mulligan without a creature because your probability of drawing one is so low - you'd end up with nothing in your hand. But that's the problem - you need to dig very quickly and hope you find what you're looking for. There's a massive consistency issue here - and I don't need to playtest to know that digging for one of eight cards (and needing to protect it) is a recipe for disaster.
I'm not particularly interested in a list that you have played in an FNM; that isn't evidence for much. People have gotten turn 2 kills with less cards (Immolating Souleater, SSG, Mountain, Assault Strobe), but that's not what we're discussing. Anyway, you got to the meat of the matter with: it was too glass cannon. All of your suggestions are going away from resiliency (with the exception of Delver and Apostle's Blessing) and into glass cannon mode.
From here it's just off to the races for results. I'm still playing in 2-mans and getting a feel for the massive format, but I'm going to throw it into a daily when I have three hours. Your results are giving up on the deck you played because it's bad, but still arguing for the card choices you had...
Newish to Modern, but I've been playing the Pauper version of this deck for awhile and have made adjustments so its Modern legal. I find this comment a bit disheartening, but also true. This deck tries to win in a single shot on turn 3 or 4, which is effectively the same thing an infect deck tries to do. Cheap creatures and cheap pump spells to get to 10 poison. Infect is still getting results in the dailies, so why can't this deck? They both suffer from the exact same down sides in that they crumble to cheap removal spells (bolt, path etc). The advantage this deck has is it can run counters (Spell Pierce or Dispel) to help push through the opposition. It can also make creatures unblockable, which infect doesn't do. I tested a bit on Cockatrice and had 3 people rage quit on me in a row b/c I had a turn 3 kill. It wasn't until the 6th game that a UR tempo deck beat me. I've since added 4 Dispel's to my sideboard for such matchups.
So... remind me again why this deck doesn't see more play?
Here is a similar deck that has placed highly in an event. So its a viable deck type. They are playing Death's Shadow as an additional threat because you can get your life total so low with all the phyrexian mana spells in it.
3rd Place at Magic Online Premier Event on 6/2/2014Magic OnlineOCTGN2ApprenticeBuy These Cards
4 Kiln Fiend
4 Nivmagus Elemental
2 Simian Spirit Guide
2 Arid Mesa
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
4 Blood Crypt
1 City of Brass
1 Marsh Flats
2 Scalding Tarn
2 Verdant Catacombs
3 Dismember
4 Mutagenic Growth
4 Tainted Strike
3 Assault Strobe
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Ground Rift
4 Thoughtseize
2 Lightning Greaves
1 Dismember
1 Slaughter Pact
1 Assault Strobe
2 Duress
2 Postmortem Lunge
4 Pyroclasm
2 Shattering Spree
4x Assault Strobe
2x Double Cleave
2x Flamekin Harbinger
4x Gitaxian Probe
4x Ground Rift
4x Gut Shot
4x Kiln Fiend
3x Lightning Bolt
4x Manamorphose
17x Mountain
4x Mutagenic Growth
4x Nivmagus Elemental
2x Anger of the Gods
4x Clout of the Dominus
2x Pyroclasm
3x Smelt
2x Tormod's Crypt
And yes, it has problems against decks that try to interact with your board. But with all the free instants Nivmagus is actually very resilient to Lightning bolt. Also, with Nivmagus on board T2 kills are not out of reach (I have done it on several occasions). In my view Nivmagus elemental is by far the best creature in the deck, he grows permanently and he is a super fast clock.
Another thing i will say is, that while i can see the merit of Spell Pierce out of the sideboard (because it's 1 mana) i think that having to keep up mana for counters fundamentally conflicts with the deck's plan. I'm all for the tempo plan and playing the reactive game, but then Kiln Fiend and Cyclops are not your guys, Delver of Secrets and Young Pyromancer are (and for non-budget ofc Snapcaster). These are cards that have good synergy with the draw-go, play cantrips and hold up mana for counters, plan.
I think you need to work out what you want to play, if you want to play blitz, go all-in on that plan and pray you opponent didn't draw his removal (or splash black for discard ), if you want to play the more grindy game with cantrips and counters, go with Delver and Pyromancer, you'll be happier for it (they are simply better cards).