The MTGS Modern Forums is a hub for discussion, debate, and decklists on the best decks in the Modern format. The "Proven" subforum reflects the Tier 1 decks of the metagame. The subforum is updated every ban quarter.
Criteria for what makes a deck "Proven" were decided upon by staff and everyday forum users in August and September of 2013. It has also received small updates since then. Data collected for this quarter's update is presented in the MTGS Modern Metagame Analysis: 7/2014 - 9/2014 Google Doc. This sheet compiles all Modern event data for your convenience, and gives an accurate depiction of both the online and paper metagames. Many of the criteria for Proven are dynamic (based on averages/standard deviations for the population), so the exact cutoffs are always changing to reflect the current metagame. The formulas, however, remain the same. Criteria for the 9/22/2014 update are given below:
Proven - 9/22/2014 Competitive Decks Representing the Current Metagame
Proven decks are updated every ban cycle. A Proven thread must have a primer updated since the last ban cycle. A deck is considered "Proven" if it fulfills THREE or more of the following criteria:
Makes up 3.25%+ of the MTGO metagame (reported 4-0/3-1 and T16 decks at Dalies/Premiers) over the last 3 months
(i.e. has prevalence greater than one standard deviation over average MTGO deck prevalence)
Has 1+ Grand Prix/Pro Tour Top 8 appearance in the last 6 months
Has 3+ Grand Prix/Pro Tour Top 16 appearances in the last 6 months
Makes up 3.5%+ of the Day 2 metagame at all GPs in the last 6 months/since the most recent significant ban update
(i.e. has prevalence greater than one standard deviation over average day 2 prevalence at GPs)
Makes up 3.25%+ of the Paper Top 8 metagame for events, held in the last 6 months/since the most recent significant ban update, with 40+ players
(i.e. has prevalence greater than one standard deviation over average deck prevalence at above average attendance paper events)
Under these criteria, here are the decks that go into the Proven subforum for the 9/22/2014 update. Again, data is taken from the spreadsheet here. Decks are also accompanied by the criteria that they fulfill on the list, just for the sake of transparency. For example, Affinity fulfills all the criteria, so it gets a (1,2,3,4,5) next to it. RG Tron only fulfills two, so it receives a (1,5).
If anyone has any questions, comments, or suggestions, feel free to post in the Modern metagame discussion thread, or to message me or one of the other moderators.
Owing to the relative scarcity of large paper Modern tournaments in the past 6 months, and to the smaller size of those tournaments, the 5th criteria has been changed to reflect events with 50+ players. It had previously been 100+. This will likely revert to 100+ once PTQ season starts.
Ban announcement around the corner, probably on January 27th. A bunch of decks will move around then and get promoted and demoted from Proven, Established, and Creation. We will try and make sure that those moves are clear so people can find their threads.
Burn, Delver, BG Rock, and Living End moved to Established
Update will be posted to this thread and then implemented across the forum. Some of the criteria have been adjusted based on what has happened over the past few months. This affects the criteria for paper events (it is now events with 40+ players instead of 50+ owing to smaller event sizes since February), for all date ranges (we are only considered data AFTER the January 2014 ban announcement went into effect), and for how we define a GP Top 8/16 (we looked at both the PT Valencia Top 8 overall Modern decks, and the Top 8/16 decks in the Modern rounds only). Overall, this gives us a more accurate and realistic picture of the metagame.
New B&R announcement just got posted, so it's time for our quarterly update of the forums. I will be finalizing all the deck placements and then moving threads accordingly. Stay tuned for more details!
This update reflects the metagame between 4/28 and 7/14, the most recent ban cycle/quarter for the format.
NOTABLE CHANGES
BG Rock promoted to Proven!
RG Tron promoted to Proven!
UWR Midrange moved to Established
Updated criteria for Proven can be found in the OP. As of this posting, all Proven changes have been made (Established changes are pending). Remember that you can see our full dataset in the link in my signature: MTGS Modern Metagame - MTGO and Paper Events (4/28/2014 - 7/14/2014). Let me know if anyone has questions!
This update reflects the metagame between as of 9/22/2014, the end date of the most recent ban cycle/quarter for the format (7/14/2014 - 9/22/2014). Updated criteria for Proven can be found in the OP. As of this posting, all Proven changes have been made (Established changes are pending). Remember that you can see our full dataset in the link in my signature: MTGS Modern Metagame - MTGO and Paper Events (7/14/2014 - 9/22/2014).
NOTABLE CHANGES
To qualify for Proven, decks now need to meet 3+ criteria, not 2+.
Burn promoted to Proven!
Kiki Pod, Bogles, Merfolk, and Storm moved to Established
The MTGS Modern Forums is a hub for discussion, debate, and decklists on the best decks in the Modern format. The "Proven" subforum reflects the Tier 1 decks of the metagame. The subforum is updated every ban quarter.
Criteria for what makes a deck "Proven" were decided upon by staff and everyday forum users in August and September of 2013. It has also received small updates since then. Data collected for this quarter's update is presented in the MTGS Modern Metagame Analysis: 7/2014 - 9/2014 Google Doc. This sheet compiles all Modern event data for your convenience, and gives an accurate depiction of both the online and paper metagames. Many of the criteria for Proven are dynamic (based on averages/standard deviations for the population), so the exact cutoffs are always changing to reflect the current metagame. The formulas, however, remain the same. Criteria for the 9/22/2014 update are given below:
Proven - 9/22/2014
Competitive Decks Representing the Current Metagame
Proven decks are updated every ban cycle. A Proven thread must have a primer updated since the last ban cycle. A deck is considered "Proven" if it fulfills THREE or more of the following criteria:
PROVEN DECKS: 9/22/2014
~Updated 9/23/2014~
PROVEN DECKS: 9/22/2014
Criteria fulfillment provided in parentheses
PROVEN DECKS: 7/14/2014
Criteria fulfillment provided in parentheses
PROVEN DECKS: 4/28/2014
Criteria fulfillment provided in parentheses
PROVEN DECKS: 2/1/2014
Criteria fulfillment provided in parentheses
PROVEN DECKS: 9/16/2013
Criteria fulfillment provided in parentheses
Owing to the relative scarcity of large paper Modern tournaments in the past 6 months, and to the smaller size of those tournaments, the 5th criteria has been changed to reflect events with 50+ players. It had previously been 100+. This will likely revert to 100+ once PTQ season starts.
Ban announcement around the corner, probably on January 27th. A bunch of decks will move around then and get promoted and demoted from Proven, Established, and Creation. We will try and make sure that those moves are clear so people can find their threads.
Let me know if you have any questions!
Proven section updated! Give a warm welcome to Living End, Delver, and Merfolk.
NOTABLE CHANGES
New B&R announcement just got posted, so it's time for our quarterly update of the forums. I will be finalizing all the deck placements and then moving threads accordingly. Stay tuned for more details!
This update reflects the metagame between 4/28 and 7/14, the most recent ban cycle/quarter for the format.
NOTABLE CHANGES
This update reflects the metagame between as of 9/22/2014, the end date of the most recent ban cycle/quarter for the format (7/14/2014 - 9/22/2014). Updated criteria for Proven can be found in the OP. As of this posting, all Proven changes have been made (Established changes are pending). Remember that you can see our full dataset in the link in my signature:
MTGS Modern Metagame - MTGO and Paper Events (7/14/2014 - 9/22/2014).
NOTABLE CHANGES