Instead of the CITP fetch lands, I'll prob be trying these lands in UB and UW, unless someone tests them first with terrible reviews. The fact they do something relevant when the CITP might lead to some really cool interactions with cards like Meloku, or Crucible + Sac Outlet.
I feel like these lands are amazingly mediocre, and I also think they are going to trap a lot of people into keeping iffy hands and then seeing a terrible card off the scry and just dying.
I mean, what does scry 1 really do. If you keep the card on top it does nothing except let you plan slightly better for your next turn, so if you play this on turn one and don't bottom the card it did literally nothing.
If you see a card you don't want, and you bottom it, let's see what can happen. Let's say you were digging for a 4th land, and your deck is the standard 23/17 and you are playing this on turn 3 on the draw, for ease of math. So you have seen 3 lands 7 non-lands, meaning your remaining deck is 14 lands and 16 non-lands. You drop this and see a non-land, and bottom it. You now, instead of having a 14/30 chance of drawing your land, have 14/29 chance. You have just improved your chances from 46.6% to 48.2%. Woo. Hoo. That is quite a minuscule advantage. Oh, and you also lost tempo by playing a tapped land on t3.
Now, people seem to think the dream scenario here is playing them t1, so let's see what happens there. Say you keep a 2-lander on the play, scrying on t1 to try and hit your 3rd land. Now your deck is 15 lands, 18 non-lands. Pre scry, chance of hitting your land is 45.5%, post scry, 46.8%. Again, pretty mediocre. Now obviously you have essentially pushed yourself slightly further down your deck, improving the chances of drawing a land in the later turns, which makes this slightly better, but it's still going to be a cumulative effect of like 2% per draw step.
That's a fallacy. Your math assumes that you have no chance of finding what you're looking for when you look at the top. Assuming that you don't find a land, in the first example, your odds didn't go from 46.6% to 48.2%, they went from 0% to 48.2%. In addition, you are one turn closer to any possible land you would draw in the future, which makes a huge difference in the game.
In reality, assuming you will always scry a nonland and are taking this from the perspective of before you chose to scry, your odds of drawing a land on your next turn if you chose not to scry just went from 46.6% before the scry to [46.6% + 48.2% - (46.6% * 48.2%)]= 72.3%. That's a substantial improvement. Ditto for your wrath scenario, which improves to about 25%.
First, let’s talk a bit about scry. How much is scry worth? It depends on what deck you’re playing and what situation you’re in. If you scry two cards to the bottom and that means you hit your third land drop, then scry is worth a lot. Scry also gets exponentially better, since when you see two cards you can play ahead—sure, you don’t want Channel, but what if the very next card is Fireball? In this case, with scry 1, you will put the Channel away and draw the useless Fireball, as opposed to keeping both and killing them. Scry 2 is also lot better than two instances of scry 1 because you still get to do something even if you want to keep the top card.
So, I don’t think it’s worth paying anything more for scry 1. Voyage’s End, for example, is just worse than Unsummon (though you are not going to have a choice). Scry 2, on the other hand, is usually worth paying one mana for in a cheap card—Magma Jet is better than Shock, though you can’t go on adding scry to expensive cards—Wrath for 3WW with scry 2 would be very much worse. When I asked on Twitter what amount of scry was better than drawing a card, the most common answer was “2,” and I think that’s wrong. Scry 2 is certainly worse than drawing a card. At scry 3, I think you’re still below a card—I’d rather draw one than scry 3 most of the time. Scry 4 might be better than “draw a card,” but it’s close.
No particular comment here, just that I also think Scry 1 is really underwhelming. PV is saying he thinks Scry 1 is worth 0 mana, and this discussion is about Scry 1 for a tempo loss. Personally I have a gut feeling that it is not worth the tempo loss, but it is just a feeling. I feel Scry 1 is on par with the "Gain 1 life" Zen lands.
And like the FS land, these feel very very uncommon.
I do think that the GB might be good. I will definitely test at least that one, and maybe a few others, but I have very low expectations. Maybe if I used the Utility land setup that Trunkers does...
That's a fallacy. Your math assumes that you have no chance of finding what you're looking for when you look at the top. Assuming that you don't find a land, in the first example, your odds didn't go from 46.6% to 48.2%, they went from 0% to 48.2%. In addition, you are one turn closer to any possible land you would draw in the future, which makes a huge difference in the game.
In reality, assuming you will always scry a nonland and are taking this from the perspective of before you chose to scry, your odds of drawing a land on your next turn if you chose not to scry just went from 46.6% before the scry to [46.6% + 48.2% - (46.6% * 48.2%)]= 72.3%. That's a substantial improvement. Ditto for your wrath scenario, which improves to about 25%.
What?
Of course you have a chance of finding what you are looking for when you look at the top, but if you do find what you are looking for scrying didn't do anything for you except confirm that what you want to draw is there. And yes, scrying does push away an unwanted card, meaning yes, you now have a 0% chance of drawing that card you didn't want, and if you didn't scry, you would have drawn it, but we're looking at situations where you aren't scrying vs those where you are, and in the case where you don't scry and don't look at the top card you don't know that you have a 0% chance of drawing what you wanted.
Also, each draw step is an independent event. Obviously every card you draw or scry improves your chances of seeing a land on one of the draws, but each of those individual draws is still the same chance. Also, if you are scrying turn one on the play trying to hit a second land, and you want to do it as a cumulative chance to draw, you also have to take in all of the following draw steps trying to hit your third land.
So yeah, we can do it cumulatively, which will result in the following with 3 draws + a scry vs 3 draws - 3 draws you have a 1-(1-(15/33))*(1-(15/32))*(1-(15/31)) chance to draw a land or about 85%, scrying at the beginning of it adds one more *1-(15/30) at the end, or about 92% chance of hitting your land, so yes, they do have the benefit of smoothing out your draws by about 7% assuming you have no shuffle effect over 3 turns. Is a 7% increase enough to make a borderline 2-land hand keepable? I dunno, maybe. Not to mention that that percentage advantage will go down every turn. I mean, these are certainly better than basics, but is that relatively small increase in consistency worth the loss in tempo that comes from playing these over any of the lands that can tap the turn you play them? Is it worth the utility a manland provides? Is it worth the interactions the bouncelands provide? I don't think it is.
Now, if these were scry 2 they would be amazing, maybe broken, because that is a substantial amount of your library to see on turn 1, almost giving you a preordain. But scry one is just such a small impact. I mean, would anyone play magma jet if it scryed one? Preordain? Would you play a 2/2 for 2 that just scryed one? Do you run New Benalia in your cube (when white has a ton more spots than the dual colors do)? At the end of the day, these are duals that are the zendikar duals with -1 life and scry one. They are certainly better, but are they enough better to make it in anything less than like a 720 cube? I think no.
Edit - The bottom line of all this is that scry 1 is a very minimal advantage, and in order for it to be worth it I think it has to be on a card we would already play anyway. I don't think CIPT lands are something most of us would be playing anyway. I do look forward to these in our budget multi-color only cube though.
Of course you have a chance of finding what you are looking for when you look at the top, but if you do find what you are looking for scrying didn't do anything for you except confirm that what you want to draw is there. And yes, scrying does push away an unwanted card, meaning yes, you now have a 0% chance of drawing that card you didn't want, and if you didn't scry, you would have drawn it, but we're looking at situations where you aren't scrying vs those where you are, and in the case where you don't scry and don't look at the top card you don't know that you have a 0% chance of drawing what you wanted.
Also, each draw step is an independent event. Obviously every card you draw or scry improves your chances of seeing a land on one of the draws, but each of those individual draws is still the same chance. Also, if you are scrying turn one on the play trying to hit a second land, and you want to do it as a cumulative chance to draw, you also have to take in all of the following draw steps trying to hit your third land.
So yeah, we can do it cumulatively, which will result in the following with 3 draws + a scry vs 3 draws - 3 draws you have a 1-(1-(15/33))*(1-(15/32))*(1-(15/31)) chance to draw a land or about 85%, scrying at the beginning of it adds one more *1-(15/30) at the end, or about 92% chance of hitting your land, so yes, they do have the benefit of smoothing out your draws by about 7% assuming you have no shuffle effect over 3 turns. Is a 7% increase enough to make a borderline 2-land hand keepable? I dunno, maybe. Not to mention that that percentage advantage will go down every turn. I mean, these are certainly better than basics, but is that relatively small increase in consistency worth the loss in tempo that comes from playing these over any of the lands that can tap the turn you play them? Is it worth the utility a manland provides? Is it worth the interactions the bouncelands provide? I don't think it is.
Now, if these were scry 2 they would be amazing, maybe broken, because that is a substantial amount of your library to see on turn 1, almost giving you a preordain. But scry one is just such a small impact. I mean, would anyone play magma jet if it scryed one? Preordain? Would you play a 2/2 for 2 that just scryed one? Do you run New Benalia in your cube (when white has a ton more spots than the dual colors do)? At the end of the day, these are duals that are the zendikar duals with -1 life and scry one. They are certainly better, but are they enough better to make it in anything less than like a 720 cube? I think no.
Edit - The bottom line of all this is that scry 1 is a very minimal advantage, and in order for it to be worth it I think it has to be on a card we would already play anyway. I don't think CIPT lands are something most of us would be playing anyway. I do look forward to these in our budget multi-color only cube though.
You're using confirmation bias in your calculations in taking what you know after you look at the top card and retroactively applying it to your previous calculations. As I said, your possibility of drawing a land wouldn't have still been 46.6% if you knew that the top card of your library wasn't a land, it would have been exactly 0%. Before you scry, you have to take into account that the possibility of drawing a target card before you scry and after you scry are independent events. The OR equation for probability is prob(AorB)=prob(A)+prob(B)-prob(AandB).
You speak ill of New Benalia, but the truth is that even a small difference in power level between these lands is huge. Consider Halimar Depths. It has a similarly innocuous ability, yet it saw extensive play in Caw-Blade and cube. Now, the two cards are very different, but neither of them provided card advantage or fixed mana, and scry 1 wasn't strictly worse by any means. The small difference was all the difference in the world. Likewise, putting these abilities on duals is likely to alter their playability extensively.
I'm not saying they're 360 staples or anything, but if you're aiming for a slower/more consistent cube, these should be some of your first choices. Time will tell if they're better than karoo lands, but I think they might be.
You're using confirmation bias in your calculations in taking what you know after you look at the top card and retroactively applying it to your previous calculations. As I said, your possibility of drawing a land wouldn't have still been 46.6% if you knew that the top card of your library wasn't a land, it would have been exactly 0%. Before you scry, you have to take into account that the possibility of drawing a target card before you scry and after you scry are independent events. The OR equation for probability is prob(AorB)=prob(A)+prob(B)-prob(AandB).
You speak ill of New Benalia, but the truth is that even a small difference in power level between these lands is huge. Consider Halimar Depths. It has a similarly innocuous ability, yet it saw extensive play in Caw-Blade and cube. Now, the two cards are very different, but neither of them provided card advantage or fixed mana, and scry 1 wasn't strictly worse by any means. The small difference was all the difference in the world. Likewise, putting these abilities on duals is likely to alter their playability extensively.
Halimar depth dug 3 instead of one, and so did a much better job of smoothing your draws. I also think Halimar lead to a lot of bad keeps though. Additionally, even though it did dig three, it doesn't see play in many small cubes anymore (afaik.) Additionally, you are comparing constructed with cube. Will these cards see play in constructed? Probably, especially if we get duals of similar power levels in the next set or if 3-4 color decks are still powerful enough to overcome the tempo loss. People play with the tools they have access to in constructed. Additionally, halimar depths saw play in that deck because it ran very few 1-drops (just preordain IIRC, and the lists still only ran 1-2 of the depths) and was a grindy enough deck that it didn't care about the loss of tempo if it topdecked a depths late, since most of the decks key plays cost 2-3 mana. Finally, by the end (post bannings) lists weren't even using the depths.
Cube is an entirely different animal. These cards will be competing with the best lands/multicolored cards ever printed for a very limited number of spots, and they just don't cut it IMO. They are terrible lands to topdeck because of the tempo loss, and sure, they are decent on turn 1 I'll give you that, but every turn past that they just get worse and worse than other duals unless you are flooding out, where again, they provide a relatively small advantage. Am I underestimating scry? Maybe, but I don't think I am underestimating it enough to make these cards good enough to eat up a guild or land cube slot.
Halimar depth dug 3 instead of one, and so did a much better job of smoothing your draws. I also think Halimar lead to a lot of bad keeps though. Additionally, even though it did dig three, it doesn't see play in many small cubes anymore (afaik.) Additionally, you are comparing constructed with cube. Will these cards see play in constructed? Probably, especially if we get duals of similar power levels in the next set or if 3-4 color decks are still powerful enough to overcome the tempo loss. People play with the tools they have access to in constructed. Additionally, halimar depths saw play in that deck because it ran very few 1-drops (just preordain IIRC, and the lists still only ran 1-2 of the depths) and was a grindy enough deck that it didn't care about the loss of tempo if it topdecked a depths late, since most of the decks key plays cost 2-3 mana. Finally, by the end (post bannings) lists weren't even using the depths.
Cube is an entirely different animal. These cards will be competing with the best lands/multicolored cards ever printed for a very limited number of spots, and they just don't cut it IMO. They are terrible lands to topdeck because of the tempo loss, and sure, they are decent on turn 1 I'll give you that, but every turn past that they just get worse and worse than other duals unless you are flooding out, where again, they provide a relatively small advantage. Am I underestimating scry? Maybe, but I don't think I am underestimating it enough to make these cards good enough to eat up a guild or land cube slot.
I'm not saying that Halimar Depths was the be-all-end-all of great lands, and you're right in saying it doesn't see play in cubes these days. But when it comes to lands, any ability is powerful, even 3/5 of an Index on a CIPT island that can't be fetched. Putting a library manipulation ability on a dual is unprecedented outside of the shuffle ability of fetchlands, and we all know that's an important part of their utility.
I actually think these lands will play better in cube than constructed. Unlike the upcoming standard, you won't have to jam a bunch of these into your deck and hit your curve a turn late every time. With only one in your opening hand, you can afford to play it on turn 1 or a turn where you don't miss out on your curve. Again, I don't think it's a 360 staple, but I think it deserves as much consideration as any dual outside of Originals/Fetches/Shocks.
I'm not saying that Halimar Depths was the be-all-end-all of great lands, and you're right in saying it doesn't see play in cubes these days. But when it comes to lands, any ability is powerful, even 3/5 of an Index on a CIPT island that can't be fetched. Putting a library manipulation ability on a dual is unprecedented outside of the shuffle ability of fetchlands, and we all know that's an important part of their utility.
I actually think these lands will play better in cube than constructed. Unlike the upcoming standard, you won't have to jam a bunch of these into your deck and hit your curve a turn late every time. With only one in your opening hand, you can afford to play it on turn 1 or a turn where you don't miss out on your curve. Again, I don't think it's a 360 staple, but I think it deserves as much consideration as any dual outside of Originals/Fetches/Shocks.
Maybe, I guess we'll have to wait and see. I kind of do hope they surprise me, because right now I am pretty disappointed that they are the rare dual land cycle for this set. Not that I think every set needs cards that compete for cube land slots, and I guess these are at least different whereas if we'd gotten the river of tears or nimbus maze cycles, while they would have been better for constructed, we wouldn't even be having this discussion because their power level is pretty clear. However I had hoped (before info on theros started coming out) that it might be the horizon canopy or grove of the burnwillows cycle, as I think those might have a real shot of making it.
I'm also hugely disappointed with these lands. They're fine, but they feel like they'll be replacing placeholder lands with different placeholder lands. Instead, I was hoping for a cycle that would really be worth running.
I'm also hugely disappointed with these lands. They're fine, but they feel like they'll be replacing placeholder lands with different placeholder lands. Instead, I was hoping for a cycle that would really be worth running.
"Brainstorm is a bad card because it leads to bad keeps with only one land."
See what i did there?
Whatever the final verdict on these lands is, that particular argument is completely invalid.
I see that you made a pretty unreasonable comparison.
The "trap" aspect of these lands is one facet of why I think these lands are bad, not the be all end all. Brainstorm is obviously not bad on these grounds because it digs you 3 deep, so keeping speculative hands with ponder, preordain, and brainstorm etc is much better than keeping specualtive hands with the scry one lands.
And no, a card being a trap card, or looking much better than it is, or leading the person using the cards into mistakes is not a completely invalid argument. No one is playing cube competitively, except in magic online and very, very rare live events. Further, most of us (I hope) are playing with friends, so really the main goal of cube is to be both fun and powerful. Our cube group is people of varying skill levels and experience, and I think that these cards will trick the less experienced players into keeping very shakey hands because they get to see an extra card (and yes, they do the same thing with brainstorm, but that will be a terrible decision less of the time), and that's gonna feel pretty bad. Do I think that's the main reason these cards are bad? No, the main reason I think these cards are bad is because I don't think the incremental advantage they supply is not worth the loss of tempo/interactions that other lands provide. However, the fact that I think these will lead to unfun situations in our group is certainly part of my evaluation of the lands. YMMV, but power level isn't the only thing I think about when looking at cards, I also think about how they impact the fun of the cube, and I think that downside to these lands is something to think about. A minor thing, certainly, but still something.
Being able to Scry 1 doesn't make an unkeepable hand suddenly worth keeping. Card abilities don't force you to play bad Magic.
I know, and as I said, I don't think it's a big mark against these cards, but I think in my situation it's worth considering given that we have less experienced players cubing with us. No one has to consider it when deciding whether to include these cards or not, I just think it's something to think about. I think these lands are easier to make mistakes with than a lot of other cards is all.
I'm also hugely disappointed with these lands. They're fine, but they feel like they'll be replacing placeholder lands with different placeholder lands. Instead, I was hoping for a cycle that would really be worth running.
They really can't do that with the ravnica duals currently in standard while accomplishing their goal of making mana fixing harder than it has been in Innistrad/Ravnica standard.
I know, and as I said, I don't think it's a big mark against these cards, but I think in my situation it's worth considering given that we have less experienced players cubing with us. No one has to consider it when deciding whether to include these cards or not, I just think it's something to think about. I think these lands are easier to make mistakes with than a lot of other cards is all.
The best way to learn is to make mistakes. Babying your players is not how you create a good learning environment. I've had quite a bit of people play my cube with very litle to.even first time playing experience, and they all still play and all learned at a rapid rate. But thats is your opinion and this is mine, which isn't relevant to this card.
If anything, as wtwlf said, these cards are.most.likely placeholders. Just in case they're not I'm trying them.out.
The best way to learn is to make mistakes. Babying your players is not how you create a good learning environment. I've had quite a bit of people play my cube with very litle to.even first time playing experience, and they all still play and all learned at a rapid rate. But thats is your opinion and this is mine, which isn't relevant to this card.
If anything, as wtwlf said, these cards are.most.likely placeholders. Just in case they're not I'm trying them.out.
Sure, and if they were hard to use correctly but good then I would certainly run them. But they are bad, and on top of that I think they are easier to make bad plays with than other cards, so I don't think they are worth running.
They really can't do that with the ravnica duals currently in standard while accomplishing their goal of making mana fixing harder than it has been in Innistrad/Ravnica standard.
I think these cards prove they can do things that are interesting with duals while potentially making fixing worse in standard. In general the come in to play untapped lands are better but the karoo lands, vivids, and manlands are frequently used.
I agree with wtwlf123, a couple of these might make it for a while but the effect is boring and fairly minor.
Where are the enchantment lands or legendary enchantment lands? I was hoping for guild specific abilities in exchange for vulnerability but I guess they are too afraid of new players crying when the loose lands.
What about more manlands, or sac for a card, or count for devotion? Don't get me wrong scry is something. Scry 2 was probably too much, but maybe if they were legendary. What about a sac for scry 3?
I wish they caused lifeloss instead of coming into play tapped. Aggressive decks would've loved to have lands that can use scry to guarantee gas and provide mana right away.
That being said, I'm going to test out the UG one and see how valuable the Scry ability is.
What about more manlands, or sac for a card, or count for devotion? Don't get me wrong scry is something. Scry 2 was probably too much, but maybe if they were legendary. What about a sac for scry 3?
I was really, really hoping for a horizon canopy cycle a few months ago. C'est la vie
Sure, and if they were hard to use correctly but good then I would certainly run them. But they are bad, and on top of that I think they are easier to make bad plays with than other cards, so I don't think they are worth running.
For some reason this comment made me feel old.
But anyways, tapping for 2 colors with a relevant free ability is not a bad land, it's just not nearly as good as all the other dual lands up to about the depth for 4 per guild. At 5 your really looking at garnering the dual lands towards what each guilds strengths and/or weaknesses are, and the scry lands are obviously not the greatest for your faster guild combinations. I do like these lands though for U/W and U/B, and think testing will be called for (until obvious better lands are printed). In combination with U's deck manipulation, these scry lands may be able to do some really great plays.
Honestly the biggest problem is that they were printed at rare, which makes them feel worse then they actually are.
It's not here yet, but do people like the idea of a UW scry land more than Azorius Chancery? The chancery performed really well for me in the finals of my last cube draft... when my opponent played it and I followed up with Molten Rain
Edit: I read a couple of the rumor mill pages about these cards. Looks like Magic is dead. Again.
"When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less." -Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass
My 450 Cube
That's a fallacy. Your math assumes that you have no chance of finding what you're looking for when you look at the top. Assuming that you don't find a land, in the first example, your odds didn't go from 46.6% to 48.2%, they went from 0% to 48.2%. In addition, you are one turn closer to any possible land you would draw in the future, which makes a huge difference in the game.
In reality, assuming you will always scry a nonland and are taking this from the perspective of before you chose to scry, your odds of drawing a land on your next turn if you chose not to scry just went from 46.6% before the scry to [46.6% + 48.2% - (46.6% * 48.2%)]= 72.3%. That's a substantial improvement. Ditto for your wrath scenario, which improves to about 25%.
Cubetutor Link
No particular comment here, just that I also think Scry 1 is really underwhelming. PV is saying he thinks Scry 1 is worth 0 mana, and this discussion is about Scry 1 for a tempo loss. Personally I have a gut feeling that it is not worth the tempo loss, but it is just a feeling. I feel Scry 1 is on par with the "Gain 1 life" Zen lands.
And like the FS land, these feel very very uncommon.
I do think that the GB might be good. I will definitely test at least that one, and maybe a few others, but I have very low expectations. Maybe if I used the Utility land setup that Trunkers does...
What?
Of course you have a chance of finding what you are looking for when you look at the top, but if you do find what you are looking for scrying didn't do anything for you except confirm that what you want to draw is there. And yes, scrying does push away an unwanted card, meaning yes, you now have a 0% chance of drawing that card you didn't want, and if you didn't scry, you would have drawn it, but we're looking at situations where you aren't scrying vs those where you are, and in the case where you don't scry and don't look at the top card you don't know that you have a 0% chance of drawing what you wanted.
Also, each draw step is an independent event. Obviously every card you draw or scry improves your chances of seeing a land on one of the draws, but each of those individual draws is still the same chance. Also, if you are scrying turn one on the play trying to hit a second land, and you want to do it as a cumulative chance to draw, you also have to take in all of the following draw steps trying to hit your third land.
So yeah, we can do it cumulatively, which will result in the following with 3 draws + a scry vs 3 draws - 3 draws you have a 1-(1-(15/33))*(1-(15/32))*(1-(15/31)) chance to draw a land or about 85%, scrying at the beginning of it adds one more *1-(15/30) at the end, or about 92% chance of hitting your land, so yes, they do have the benefit of smoothing out your draws by about 7% assuming you have no shuffle effect over 3 turns. Is a 7% increase enough to make a borderline 2-land hand keepable? I dunno, maybe. Not to mention that that percentage advantage will go down every turn. I mean, these are certainly better than basics, but is that relatively small increase in consistency worth the loss in tempo that comes from playing these over any of the lands that can tap the turn you play them? Is it worth the utility a manland provides? Is it worth the interactions the bouncelands provide? I don't think it is.
Now, if these were scry 2 they would be amazing, maybe broken, because that is a substantial amount of your library to see on turn 1, almost giving you a preordain. But scry one is just such a small impact. I mean, would anyone play magma jet if it scryed one? Preordain? Would you play a 2/2 for 2 that just scryed one? Do you run New Benalia in your cube (when white has a ton more spots than the dual colors do)? At the end of the day, these are duals that are the zendikar duals with -1 life and scry one. They are certainly better, but are they enough better to make it in anything less than like a 720 cube? I think no.
Edit - The bottom line of all this is that scry 1 is a very minimal advantage, and in order for it to be worth it I think it has to be on a card we would already play anyway. I don't think CIPT lands are something most of us would be playing anyway. I do look forward to these in our budget multi-color only cube though.
375 unpowered cube - https://cubecobra.com/cube/list/601ac624832cdf1039947588
You're using confirmation bias in your calculations in taking what you know after you look at the top card and retroactively applying it to your previous calculations. As I said, your possibility of drawing a land wouldn't have still been 46.6% if you knew that the top card of your library wasn't a land, it would have been exactly 0%. Before you scry, you have to take into account that the possibility of drawing a target card before you scry and after you scry are independent events. The OR equation for probability is prob(AorB)=prob(A)+prob(B)-prob(AandB).
You speak ill of New Benalia, but the truth is that even a small difference in power level between these lands is huge. Consider Halimar Depths. It has a similarly innocuous ability, yet it saw extensive play in Caw-Blade and cube. Now, the two cards are very different, but neither of them provided card advantage or fixed mana, and scry 1 wasn't strictly worse by any means. The small difference was all the difference in the world. Likewise, putting these abilities on duals is likely to alter their playability extensively.
I'm not saying they're 360 staples or anything, but if you're aiming for a slower/more consistent cube, these should be some of your first choices. Time will tell if they're better than karoo lands, but I think they might be.
Cubetutor Link
Scry 1 is waaaay better than gaining 1 life. Not even remotely close.
Halimar depth dug 3 instead of one, and so did a much better job of smoothing your draws. I also think Halimar lead to a lot of bad keeps though. Additionally, even though it did dig three, it doesn't see play in many small cubes anymore (afaik.) Additionally, you are comparing constructed with cube. Will these cards see play in constructed? Probably, especially if we get duals of similar power levels in the next set or if 3-4 color decks are still powerful enough to overcome the tempo loss. People play with the tools they have access to in constructed. Additionally, halimar depths saw play in that deck because it ran very few 1-drops (just preordain IIRC, and the lists still only ran 1-2 of the depths) and was a grindy enough deck that it didn't care about the loss of tempo if it topdecked a depths late, since most of the decks key plays cost 2-3 mana. Finally, by the end (post bannings) lists weren't even using the depths.
Cube is an entirely different animal. These cards will be competing with the best lands/multicolored cards ever printed for a very limited number of spots, and they just don't cut it IMO. They are terrible lands to topdeck because of the tempo loss, and sure, they are decent on turn 1 I'll give you that, but every turn past that they just get worse and worse than other duals unless you are flooding out, where again, they provide a relatively small advantage. Am I underestimating scry? Maybe, but I don't think I am underestimating it enough to make these cards good enough to eat up a guild or land cube slot.
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This is true. These are certainly the best duals that are forced to come into play tapped besides the bounce lands and the man lands.
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I'm not saying that Halimar Depths was the be-all-end-all of great lands, and you're right in saying it doesn't see play in cubes these days. But when it comes to lands, any ability is powerful, even 3/5 of an Index on a CIPT island that can't be fetched. Putting a library manipulation ability on a dual is unprecedented outside of the shuffle ability of fetchlands, and we all know that's an important part of their utility.
I actually think these lands will play better in cube than constructed. Unlike the upcoming standard, you won't have to jam a bunch of these into your deck and hit your curve a turn late every time. With only one in your opening hand, you can afford to play it on turn 1 or a turn where you don't miss out on your curve. Again, I don't think it's a 360 staple, but I think it deserves as much consideration as any dual outside of Originals/Fetches/Shocks.
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Maybe, I guess we'll have to wait and see. I kind of do hope they surprise me, because right now I am pretty disappointed that they are the rare dual land cycle for this set. Not that I think every set needs cards that compete for cube land slots, and I guess these are at least different whereas if we'd gotten the river of tears or nimbus maze cycles, while they would have been better for constructed, we wouldn't even be having this discussion because their power level is pretty clear. However I had hoped (before info on theros started coming out) that it might be the horizon canopy or grove of the burnwillows cycle, as I think those might have a real shot of making it.
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This is exactly how I feel as well.
I see that you made a pretty unreasonable comparison.
The "trap" aspect of these lands is one facet of why I think these lands are bad, not the be all end all. Brainstorm is obviously not bad on these grounds because it digs you 3 deep, so keeping speculative hands with ponder, preordain, and brainstorm etc is much better than keeping specualtive hands with the scry one lands.
And no, a card being a trap card, or looking much better than it is, or leading the person using the cards into mistakes is not a completely invalid argument. No one is playing cube competitively, except in magic online and very, very rare live events. Further, most of us (I hope) are playing with friends, so really the main goal of cube is to be both fun and powerful. Our cube group is people of varying skill levels and experience, and I think that these cards will trick the less experienced players into keeping very shakey hands because they get to see an extra card (and yes, they do the same thing with brainstorm, but that will be a terrible decision less of the time), and that's gonna feel pretty bad. Do I think that's the main reason these cards are bad? No, the main reason I think these cards are bad is because I don't think the incremental advantage they supply is not worth the loss of tempo/interactions that other lands provide. However, the fact that I think these will lead to unfun situations in our group is certainly part of my evaluation of the lands. YMMV, but power level isn't the only thing I think about when looking at cards, I also think about how they impact the fun of the cube, and I think that downside to these lands is something to think about. A minor thing, certainly, but still something.
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I know, and as I said, I don't think it's a big mark against these cards, but I think in my situation it's worth considering given that we have less experienced players cubing with us. No one has to consider it when deciding whether to include these cards or not, I just think it's something to think about. I think these lands are easier to make mistakes with than a lot of other cards is all.
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They really can't do that with the ravnica duals currently in standard while accomplishing their goal of making mana fixing harder than it has been in Innistrad/Ravnica standard.
The best way to learn is to make mistakes. Babying your players is not how you create a good learning environment. I've had quite a bit of people play my cube with very litle to.even first time playing experience, and they all still play and all learned at a rapid rate. But thats is your opinion and this is mine, which isn't relevant to this card.
If anything, as wtwlf said, these cards are.most.likely placeholders. Just in case they're not I'm trying them.out.
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Sure, and if they were hard to use correctly but good then I would certainly run them. But they are bad, and on top of that I think they are easier to make bad plays with than other cards, so I don't think they are worth running.
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Coming into play tapped is a pretty huge downside...
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I think these cards prove they can do things that are interesting with duals while potentially making fixing worse in standard. In general the come in to play untapped lands are better but the karoo lands, vivids, and manlands are frequently used.
I agree with wtwlf123, a couple of these might make it for a while but the effect is boring and fairly minor.
Where are the enchantment lands or legendary enchantment lands? I was hoping for guild specific abilities in exchange for vulnerability but I guess they are too afraid of new players crying when the loose lands.
What about more manlands, or sac for a card, or count for devotion? Don't get me wrong scry is something. Scry 2 was probably too much, but maybe if they were legendary. What about a sac for scry 3?
That being said, I'm going to test out the UG one and see how valuable the Scry ability is.
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I was really, really hoping for a horizon canopy cycle a few months ago. C'est la vie
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For some reason this comment made me feel old.
But anyways, tapping for 2 colors with a relevant free ability is not a bad land, it's just not nearly as good as all the other dual lands up to about the depth for 4 per guild. At 5 your really looking at garnering the dual lands towards what each guilds strengths and/or weaknesses are, and the scry lands are obviously not the greatest for your faster guild combinations. I do like these lands though for U/W and U/B, and think testing will be called for (until obvious better lands are printed). In combination with U's deck manipulation, these scry lands may be able to do some really great plays.
Honestly the biggest problem is that they were printed at rare, which makes them feel worse then they actually are.
Oh god yes. One day. One day they will print it.
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Edit: I read a couple of the rumor mill pages about these cards. Looks like Magic is dead. Again.
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I stop caring about land a long time ago. It'll be hard to find a cycle I want to replace dual/fetch/shock with.
And Magic is pretty much a black creature. It can reanimated itself. It'll be fine.
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