For what it's worth I've been playing with the hidden agendas since the day they were printed but not with Lore Seeker - I don't want to enlarge the cube yet I will be able to accommodate one less player if I include it, plus the draft logistics it creates deter me.
It also sounds like you might be evaluating the card wrong. The correct way to view it is a value comparison between (a) your alternative in the pack + a random 7th-8th pick, versus (b) a random first pick + a random 9th pick + a colorless bear. Given that the difference between a 7th-8th pick and a 9th pick is minimal, the judgment is really about whether your alternative in the pack is better than an average first pick. Given that one of the slots in the pack is occupied by Lore Seeker, on average the best remaining card is going to be slightly worse, meaning Lore Seeker is the right pick just over 50% of the time based on expected values. Of course, you might value the certainty of a 45th percentile first pick more than the slightly higher expectation on a random first pick, which would push the percentage down a little, but not much.
This actually makes me want to add a custom version that just gives you a first pick from the new pack and throws away the rest of the cards.
I should have been more clear. My evaluation when I see a lore seeker is "do I think the card I can take in this pack is better for my deck than the average first-pick card in a pack." I think evaluating the wheel cards is substantially less important (when I said letting it go and getting a 6th or 7th, what I meant was knowing you probably wont get a 1st-pick quality card out of the lore seeker pack), and you basically never actually play lore seeker, so that evaluation rarely matters either. It really boils down to how good the best card other than lore seeker is in the pack for you, with a small side-dish of how much do I think giving the next two drafters very high quality cards will hurt me (answer - rarely very much).
There are two main benefits to lore seeker - it occasionally gives a drafter who opened stone nothing for their deck in pack 3 (which does happen if you just fully randomize before you make packs as opposed to seeding - you will see packs that are only 3 colors, have no cards narrower archetypes like mono-R, artifacts, or reanimator want, etc) a chance at a mulligan, and it gives you hope that a card that your deck wanted that wasn't in the draft suddenly makes it in, which is a great feeling. The only downside to the card are logistics (which are no big deal - you make one extra pack. It adds 30 seconds to making packs, and at most a few minutes to drafting) and the fact that, yeah, sometimes a couple other drafters get a gift in the form of one additional really good card, and you don't. But that's the nature of draft. If you're drafting a powered cube, sometimes someone opens lotus, recall, and library, and the guy to his right opens two moxes and has to pass one. Sometimes people get luckier than others. That's part of the fun.
Edit - It think the custom version sounds substantially less fun.
Do you cube Treasure Cruise? Would you cube Treasure Cruise if it had the additional text "Choose another drafter at random. That player adds an Ancestral Recall to his or her card pool."?
That's how I feel Lore Seeker functions. It gives you some benefit, and it gives a few other people a much bigger benefit (of a similar qualitative nature) through no action on their part. My proposed version retains the utility of drafting the card, while eliminating the random gift to someone else. There's nothing wrong with preferring the original, it's just a touch too random/unbalanced for me.
Do you cube Treasure Cruise? Would you cube Treasure Cruise if it had the additional text "Choose another drafter at random. That player adds an Ancestral Recall to his or her card pool."?
That's how I feel Lore Seeker functions. It gives you some benefit, and it gives a few other people a much bigger benefit (of a similar qualitative nature) through no action on their part. My proposed version retains the utility of drafting the card, while eliminating the random gift to someone else. There's nothing wrong with preferring the original, it's just a touch too random/unbalanced for me.
You should look at it from a different angle: it doesn't actually matter who drafts Lore Seeker. Sure there are interesting decisions to be made when it appears in a pack you open or get passed, but the main thing is, an additional pack gets added to the pool. That's what Lore Seeker is for: you see a larger portion of the cube, which is likely to improve deck quality across the entire drafting table. What's not to like?
Okay? It increases deck quality across the table, but more for some people than others based on where they're sitting relative to where the Lore Seeker was opened, which is something they have no influence over. The worst part is that the player who benefits most from Lore Seeker is the one who gets a bonus 2nd pick without spending a pick, and they never even had to think about taking Lore Seeker from a pack. That is what is not to like.
I do like the decision making behind drafting Lore Seeker as it relates to your own pool, but that is outweighed for me by the effects on other drafters.
I'm with Salmo in that you don't take Lore Seeker if there is a better card for you in the pack still. It should be going around until there is nothing good to take and a new first pick is a better option.
I agree with that. I also think that you don't take Thragtusk if there is a better card for you in the pack still.
If you're accurately assessing your options, the correct time to take Lore Seeker is usually no later than second pick, because at that point the best other card in the pack is usually worse than an average first pick.
On average, I would say a cube pack probably has 1-3 first pick cards. If I take the Ancestral Recall there could still be a Recurring Nightmare and Upheaval in that pack. I think those are better picks than a random pick 1.
On average, I would say a cube pack probably has 1-3 first pick cards.
I think you're mathematically wrong about that. The average pack has less than 1 card that is better than the average first pick, and that is the correct standard for picking Lore Seeker.
Lore Seeker is one of my favorite draft altering cards that we cube with. I only take it, though, if there's nothing else in the pack that seriously benefits my deck. Typically the person who benefits the most from Lore Seeker is the person who gets the extra pack passed to them.
Also I'd agree that the average cube 15 card pack has about 1-3 first pickable cards.
In my experience they are all awesome. Double stroke especially is back breaking when on the right spells, especially when you can re-cast it. Spells get pretty nutty when they have multiple conspiracies attached to it.
I like them a lot because they go in almost any deck (bar Worldknit), don't take a slot and are usually a high enough pick in any pack.
It's off topic but Iv'e been considering Canal Dredger, anyone have any feelings on it?
Deeply dislike the Dredger. The effect is more parasitic than something like Cogwork Librarian, since last picks in Cube are a lot more valuable than those in Conspiracy. I've found that it tends to hurt more decks than it helps.
We've been pretty happy with Canal Dredger. It's not super powerful but it usually lands you a few extra playables, The execution of it has never been a concern - you just end up with a couple piles of last picks and it takes a few seconds to collect them, and no one has ever complained about losing out on their last picks.
It's off topic but Iv'e been considering Canal Dredger, anyone have any feelings on it?
It's an interesting and potentially strong effect but not close to the strong conspiracies in powerlevel and it is not skill intensive in any way (unlike Cogwork Librarian). It varies a lot in power between the first and last booster in power - maybe somewhat like Worldknit. Even when you pick it, you do not know exactly what it will do. However it is a valid pick for every drafter and it will never go last.
Canal Dredger has been very solid for us as well. It's a mid-pack pick, usually, but one you're always happy to take. Of course, the thing has never been cast
Anyway, I really can't wait to see what comes in the new edition this summer.
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I should have been more clear. My evaluation when I see a lore seeker is "do I think the card I can take in this pack is better for my deck than the average first-pick card in a pack." I think evaluating the wheel cards is substantially less important (when I said letting it go and getting a 6th or 7th, what I meant was knowing you probably wont get a 1st-pick quality card out of the lore seeker pack), and you basically never actually play lore seeker, so that evaluation rarely matters either. It really boils down to how good the best card other than lore seeker is in the pack for you, with a small side-dish of how much do I think giving the next two drafters very high quality cards will hurt me (answer - rarely very much).
There are two main benefits to lore seeker - it occasionally gives a drafter who opened stone nothing for their deck in pack 3 (which does happen if you just fully randomize before you make packs as opposed to seeding - you will see packs that are only 3 colors, have no cards narrower archetypes like mono-R, artifacts, or reanimator want, etc) a chance at a mulligan, and it gives you hope that a card that your deck wanted that wasn't in the draft suddenly makes it in, which is a great feeling. The only downside to the card are logistics (which are no big deal - you make one extra pack. It adds 30 seconds to making packs, and at most a few minutes to drafting) and the fact that, yeah, sometimes a couple other drafters get a gift in the form of one additional really good card, and you don't. But that's the nature of draft. If you're drafting a powered cube, sometimes someone opens lotus, recall, and library, and the guy to his right opens two moxes and has to pass one. Sometimes people get luckier than others. That's part of the fun.
Edit - It think the custom version sounds substantially less fun.
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That's how I feel Lore Seeker functions. It gives you some benefit, and it gives a few other people a much bigger benefit (of a similar qualitative nature) through no action on their part. My proposed version retains the utility of drafting the card, while eliminating the random gift to someone else. There's nothing wrong with preferring the original, it's just a touch too random/unbalanced for me.
I do like the decision making behind drafting Lore Seeker as it relates to your own pool, but that is outweighed for me by the effects on other drafters.
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If you're accurately assessing your options, the correct time to take Lore Seeker is usually no later than second pick, because at that point the best other card in the pack is usually worse than an average first pick.
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Also I'd agree that the average cube 15 card pack has about 1-3 first pickable cards.
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In my experience they are all awesome. Double stroke especially is back breaking when on the right spells, especially when you can re-cast it. Spells get pretty nutty when they have multiple conspiracies attached to it.
I like them a lot because they go in almost any deck (bar Worldknit), don't take a slot and are usually a high enough pick in any pack.
It's off topic but Iv'e been considering Canal Dredger, anyone have any feelings on it?
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Double Stroke is too strong for my cube, so it's out.
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It's an interesting and potentially strong effect but not close to the strong conspiracies in powerlevel and it is not skill intensive in any way (unlike Cogwork Librarian). It varies a lot in power between the first and last booster in power - maybe somewhat like Worldknit. Even when you pick it, you do not know exactly what it will do. However it is a valid pick for every drafter and it will never go last.
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Anyway, I really can't wait to see what comes in the new edition this summer.