I'm having a an argument with someone and I'd appreciate if the Dredge community could shed some light on the matter. How consistently have you won while playing as/lost to Dredge on the second turn of the game? The actual terms of the argument that we're having pertains to how reliably it can deal 60 or more damage on the second turn of the game if that matters. Either way it would help if this wasn't a "he said she said" argument and so I'd like to get the opinion of some experts if at all possible. I want to stress that we're not talking about "virtual wins." We're talking about "the game has ended" style wins.
Game 1, before sideboarding, I would say that you can win on turn 2 35% of the time. It is of course build dependent, for example Fatesticher is a huge accelerant in being able to use the Bazaar multiple times, but I don't run Fatestichers as I view them as a win more card, that is more vulnerable to graveyard hate. Admittedly I am not going to say that the turn 2 wins can deal 60, but most of them are more along the lines of 21 Points, ala 6 Zombies and a Flame-Kin Zealot.
Pretty difficult to deal lethal damage on turn 2 in dredge assuming no opposition as most of the time you will be simply getting 2 bazaar activations and a draw step but only one of those bazaar activations really puts a lot of stuff you need to win in the graveyard. You can flip over 30 cards and be unable to win in dredge on the spot. The build affects this greatly of course as you can go in a lot of different directions in dredge from glass cannon/balls to the walls win as fast as possible to 'controlling' where you have a lot of defensive stuff maindeck like nature's claim's, missteps, leyline of the voids, etc. etc.
Anecdotal evidence but I can't remember losing to dredge on turn 2 all that much if ever when I played. Virtual losses sure but actual lethal damage losses I can't remember it happening to me and when I play vintage I typically don't run decks that interact with dredge that much to slow it down namely TPS where my interaction consists of a singleton mental misstep/like trying to fend off a tsunami with a 2 foot high wall.
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"Yawgmoth," Freyalise whispered as she set the bomb, "now you will pay for your treachery."
Example of turn 2 kill, Turn 1 Bazaar, pitch Golgari Grave-Troll and Bridge and some other card - 3 cards in Graveyard.
Turn 2 Upkeep use Bazaar to Dredge Troll, hitting Stinkweed Imp, 2nd draw from Bazaar, Dredge Imp discard Imp and Troll - another Bridge and Bloodghast find there way into graveyard. Cards in Graveyard at this point 13, Draw Phase Dredge Troll taking cards in Graveyard to 18, hitting a Narcomoeba which goes into play. Play Undiscovered Paradise which brings Bloodghast back into battlefield, use it to Unearth a Fatestitcher untapping Bazaar, reusing Bazaar to dump another 5 to 10 cards into graveyard, taking Graveyard to 18-23 ish cards. Dread ReturnFlame-Kin Zealot, the buyback cost on it makes 6 zombies with the 2 bridges, attack with all 7 for 21 Damage.
If you don't have Flame-Kin instead Dread Return another Sun Titan/Griselbrand bringing back another Bazaar/Drawing you cards which will dig you another 10-30 cards deeper (as needed Cabal Therapy away countertmagic) etc.
It depends on if the list is powered (lotus, led, andcestral, sapphire, and how many dread to returns the list is running. Playing an LED and following it up with a Bazaar can sometimes get you there turn 1. Most dredge deck lately have slowed down and incorporated elements of their sideboards into the main deck in order to counteract the increase of hate cards they face. It really does depend on what build you are facing and how it's attacking the metagame
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in order for the deck to win on turn 2 its needs
1) a second bazaar played
2) something to give the team haste,
3) a non interactive turn (either by plaving vs non blue/ non spheres, weak opposing keep or hitting enough narcomoebas/ therapies / bloodghasts to rip a hand apart
4) Good dredges into more grave trolls/ skinkweed imps to mill enough of the deck to accomplish points 1-3
Each deck that looks to win on turn 2 needs a way to net more bazaar activations, either by playing a fresh one or reusing the one in play. You need at least 2 really good bazaar activations to do it, or 3 okay ones.
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Thank in advance for your time and input!
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Anecdotal evidence but I can't remember losing to dredge on turn 2 all that much if ever when I played. Virtual losses sure but actual lethal damage losses I can't remember it happening to me and when I play vintage I typically don't run decks that interact with dredge that much to slow it down namely TPS where my interaction consists of a singleton mental misstep/like trying to fend off a tsunami with a 2 foot high wall.
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Turn 2 Upkeep use Bazaar to Dredge Troll, hitting Stinkweed Imp, 2nd draw from Bazaar, Dredge Imp discard Imp and Troll - another Bridge and Bloodghast find there way into graveyard. Cards in Graveyard at this point 13, Draw Phase Dredge Troll taking cards in Graveyard to 18, hitting a Narcomoeba which goes into play. Play Undiscovered Paradise which brings Bloodghast back into battlefield, use it to Unearth a Fatestitcher untapping Bazaar, reusing Bazaar to dump another 5 to 10 cards into graveyard, taking Graveyard to 18-23 ish cards. Dread Return Flame-Kin Zealot, the buyback cost on it makes 6 zombies with the 2 bridges, attack with all 7 for 21 Damage.
If you don't have Flame-Kin instead Dread Return another Sun Titan/Griselbrand bringing back another Bazaar/Drawing you cards which will dig you another 10-30 cards deeper (as needed Cabal Therapy away countertmagic) etc.
Blue: teaching Magic players manners since 1995Shops: Teaching blue players manners since 2009
1) a second bazaar played
2) something to give the team haste,
3) a non interactive turn (either by plaving vs non blue/ non spheres, weak opposing keep or hitting enough narcomoebas/ therapies / bloodghasts to rip a hand apart
4) Good dredges into more grave trolls/ skinkweed imps to mill enough of the deck to accomplish points 1-3
Each deck that looks to win on turn 2 needs a way to net more bazaar activations, either by playing a fresh one or reusing the one in play. You need at least 2 really good bazaar activations to do it, or 3 okay ones.
Blue: teaching Magic players manners since 1995Shops: Teaching blue players manners since 2009