MTG Salvation

I'm having a an argument with someone and I'd appreciate if the Dredge community could shed some light on the matter. How consistently have you won while playing as/lost to Dredge on the second turn of the game? The actual terms of the argument that we're having pertains to how reliably it can deal 60 or more damage on the second turn of the game if that matters. Either way it would help if this wasn't a "he said she said" argument and so I'd like to get the opinion of some experts if at all possible. I want to stress that we're not talking about "virtual wins." We're talking about "the game has ended" style wins.

Thank in advance for your time and input!

I lost all the math to Narcomoeba and then got distracted by Desert Bus... several times.

So some different factors to consider are:

I. Numbers of Bridges

A. Sac-Fodder needed to hit the win with those bridges

1. Sac Outlets for the fodder.

B. Unsacrificed creatures (Bloodghast has two power)
C. Hard-Casting

II. Elesh Norn.
III. Kolaghan versus Flame-Kin.
IV. Swinging with a Grave-Troll.
V. Mulligans.

A couple things to keep in mind are

• Most people won't run more than two or three of certain cards such as Dread Return, Fatestitcher, and Golgari Thug.
• You can hard-cast cards using Black Lotus, Mox Jet, and/or a land.
• Mulligans make for a slightly different distribution from other card-drawing.