I mean, I'm voting Chris 99% of the time here, but I don't feel like I want to rush and I'm not through my ISO and I guess it's possible I could find something so townie that I'd rather bump off the extra kill neutral so I'm not going there yet.
I guess we're NOT massclaiming now, since a big part of the point of that would have been to use that setup info to suss scum and there's possibly more benefit in waiting until D4 (if we get a D4)? Or do we move ahead with the massclaim in the hopes that it informs Winds' shot? Who hasn't claimed yet? Rhand...Hunger?
I have claimed multiple times and have been pushing for the massclaim per my post I just made trying to figure out if scum have a guaranteed throne nomination (hint: they for sure do).
It's probably irrelevant anyways. Odds of Chris not being scum at this stage is super, super low. Dude is in full blown anti-spew and checked out of game a while back.
Yeah, you are probably correct. It makes the most sense with his behavior for sure. Just trying to cover all bases and make sure we aren't overlooking anything. Mechanically it definitely could make sense to be xy. Or neither really.
@everyone - my theory on the mylo situation
I wanted to see the mass claim finish out to see something, but it probably doesn't matter because scum probably wouldn't claim it anyway. And that's that the scum team has a guaranteed way to put scum on the throne which makes their factional kill unblockable which accounts for the inevitable mylo situation and why shadow wouldn't have accounted for it in the beginning of the game because the throne protection would likely be inactive at the state in the game in which it should matter. But since every single kill and lynch went this way it created this game state that wasn't accounted for where our protection is invalidated during a Night in which we need it to stand a chance. This could either be through the tinfoil world in which Winds is just scum and it's 6v6 (LnGs ability accounts for that not just being game over immediately toDay) with one of the scum having the ability to self-nominate. Or it could be in any world in which there is another Tubba-like role out there that is scum and is able to guarantee someone on the throne.
Lynch Winds toDay is something to think about since he is anti-town as far as a mylo situation is concerned and that guarantees us another Day and a smaller pool. But if SK we lose his shot at another scum potentially. Also, even if he is SK, there is a very high chance he shoots me toNight and even with a scum lynch, two town deaths toNight is still a loss I think? Maybe not since it would be 4v4v1 in that case and the throne would be inactive to get the scum team a guaranteed kill. So I think it would just put tomorrow at mylo if GJ is town Dr and lylo if not. Check my numbers please.
So yeah, I think it's possible Winds is just scum, but if he isn't AND scum has the guarantee someone to the throne ability we still lose toNight. However, it does seem like scum having a mult-shot vig would be stupidly balanced. In which case, Chris is just scum because I think shadow would have ended the game upon nomination if this was town vs SK since that's a guaranteed loss.
Basically, either Winds is SK and Chris is scum, or Winds is just scum and Chris could still be either. I am leaning towards the former and will probably vote Chris.
Please tell me if I made a mistake somewhere in this logic.
Alright, finally made it through everything. I have a ton of notes that I need to organize and comment on, but a few things first off before I will be able to get to that.
Is it possible that we got mod-confirmed lylo accounting for all Night action possibilities? And if so, why even give us that and not just let the game resolve. Like, is shadow telling us we don't have any/sufficient protection to stop the NKs? If so, why do that? The other alternative is he is telling us it's a 6 anti-town (probably 5 scum 1 SK) setup? But that wouldn't be game over going into tomorrow unless the scum kill is guaranteed to go through. Like, Winds could choose to not shoot or test the Chris claim and scum could get blocked and it would be 5v5v1 tomorrow in which scum don't have it on lock. It also doesn't account for possible throne unlock abilities that could change things. But again, why give us that info and not let us play the game? So basically I don't believe it has anything to do with what could or could not happen toNight with regards to kills/protections. Which means it's just a 6 man scum team? Winds, Shin, Tom, Vaimes, Chris, and GJ/LnG? That seems pretty ridiculous, but like I just can't figure out how/why shadow would possibly give us confirmed Night action info. Even if this tinfoil world were the case, why tell us there is a 6 man scum team anyway and not just let things resolve?
I brought this up to shadow and unsurprisingly he said he couldn't confirm anything, but did say the announcement wasn't planned and was a matter of circumstance and that something similar happened in Pirates which I haven't read and don't have the time to look up right now. [b]Has anyone read pirates or better yet participated in?[/b]
I also really want a massclaim to happen before digging too much deeper, but also don't think it's probably worth waiting the 3 days it will probably take to happen. Pretty sure GJ hasn't posted toDay and he hasn't really claimed anything? Everyone else has some bit of a claim out I think?
I have a lot more to come, but need lunch and to do some actual work.
[b]@tom, @Rhand[/b] I see both of you were in that game. Input please? This is the post game post I found of Iso talking about it with sounds like roles changed due to balance concerns and town was apathetic so he let them know so the town would put in effort or something? Maybe the similarity is how many extra kills have hit town? I don't totally follow and would like to hear it from mostly tom considering you were the top poster in the game I would assume you have a good understanding of the situation.
Im assuming based on my own knowledge of running games plus what others have taught me is that this mylo is prob covering every factor. If you look at the numbers alone it would have to account for unknown factors like a vig/sk shot = mafia or whatever else can happen during the night.
The only way that can make sense is that both the scum kill and the extra kill are unblockable/there is no protection AND the extra kill is guaranteed to fire toNight. Winds claimed he doesn't have to fire. So either he is lying and has to or he is just scum and both their kills are unblockable, at least for toNight.
why does it have to account for shots being stopped or not? Mylo is assuming that if we lynch town here the game has a possibility of ending at the end of the following night is all. It isnt stating that if we mislynch the game is just an auto loss, just that the possibility exists.
Alright, finally made it through everything. I have a ton of notes that I need to organize and comment on, but a few things first off before I will be able to get to that.
Is it possible that we got mod-confirmed lylo accounting for all Night action possibilities? And if so, why even give us that and not just let the game resolve. Like, is shadow telling us we don't have any/sufficient protection to stop the NKs? If so, why do that? The other alternative is he is telling us it's a 6 anti-town (probably 5 scum 1 SK) setup? But that wouldn't be game over going into tomorrow unless the scum kill is guaranteed to go through. Like, Winds could choose to not shoot or test the Chris claim and scum could get blocked and it would be 5v5v1 tomorrow in which scum don't have it on lock. It also doesn't account for possible throne unlock abilities that could change things. But again, why give us that info and not let us play the game? So basically I don't believe it has anything to do with what could or could not happen toNight with regards to kills/protections. Which means it's just a 6 man scum team? Winds, Shin, Tom, Vaimes, Chris, and GJ/LnG? That seems pretty ridiculous, but like I just can't figure out how/why shadow would possibly give us confirmed Night action info. Even if this tinfoil world were the case, why tell us there is a 6 man scum team anyway and not just let things resolve?
I brought this up to shadow and unsurprisingly he said he couldn't confirm anything, but did say the announcement wasn't planned and was a matter of circumstance and that something similar happened in Pirates which I haven't read and don't have the time to look up right now. Has anyone read pirates or better yet participated in?
I also really want a massclaim to happen before digging too much deeper, but also don't think it's probably worth waiting the 3 days it will probably take to happen. Pretty sure GJ hasn't posted toDay and he hasn't really claimed anything? Everyone else has some bit of a claim out I think?
I have a lot more to come, but need lunch and to do some actual work.
@tom, @Rhand I see both of you were in that game. Input please? This is the post game post I found of Iso talking about it with sounds like roles changed due to balance concerns and town was apathetic so he let them know so the town would put in effort or something? Maybe the similarity is how many extra kills have hit town? I don't totally follow and would like to hear it from mostly tom considering you were the top poster in the game I would assume you have a good understanding of the situation.
Im assuming based on my own knowledge of running games plus what others have taught me is that this mylo is prob covering every factor. If you look at the numbers alone it would have to account for unknown factors like a vig/sk shot = mafia or whatever else can happen during the night.
The only way that can make sense is that both the scum kill and the extra kill are unblockable/there is no protection AND the extra kill is guaranteed to fire toNight. Winds claimed he doesn't have to fire. So either he is lying and has to or he is just scum and both their kills are unblockable, at least for toNight.
Hey Vaimes - What do you think about 3008 and Tom's point in regards to what it says about Chris v xy and to some extent GJ as well?
I suppose it's a little late now anyway since you have Chris locked in and if he is town scum probably wins, but there is still a chance to discuss it before a lynch happens.
Already liked cantrip for town, but pending some poking around at the posts relating to claim i think the way he used it is extremely in line with towncantrip just trying to get some reads on people with it, whereas i think hed do something flashier with a scum crier role.
I like rhands process to start the day as well. Have sort of just been... steadily feeling better about him ever since i tried to wagon him day 1 i think he might be one of my top towns pre reread
Don't think anyone else said anything super noteworthy yet, besides a Thing related to Another Thing from factional chat, but im keeping that in reserve for now
Is it time for this yet? I want all the possible information we can get before deciding on a lylo.
Alright, finally made it through everything. I have a ton of notes that I need to organize and comment on, but a few things first off before I will be able to get to that.
Is it possible that we got mod-confirmed lylo accounting for all Night action possibilities? And if so, why even give us that and not just let the game resolve. Like, is shadow telling us we don't have any/sufficient protection to stop the NKs? If so, why do that? The other alternative is he is telling us it's a 6 anti-town (probably 5 scum 1 SK) setup? But that wouldn't be game over going into tomorrow unless the scum kill is guaranteed to go through. Like, Winds could choose to not shoot or test the Chris claim and scum could get blocked and it would be 5v5v1 tomorrow in which scum don't have it on lock. It also doesn't account for possible throne unlock abilities that could change things. But again, why give us that info and not let us play the game? So basically I don't believe it has anything to do with what could or could not happen toNight with regards to kills/protections. Which means it's just a 6 man scum team? Winds, Shin, Tom, Vaimes, Chris, and GJ/LnG? That seems pretty ridiculous, but like I just can't figure out how/why shadow would possibly give us confirmed Night action info. Even if this tinfoil world were the case, why tell us there is a 6 man scum team anyway and not just let things resolve?
I brought this up to shadow and unsurprisingly he said he couldn't confirm anything, but did say the announcement wasn't planned and was a matter of circumstance and that something similar happened in Pirates which I haven't read and don't have the time to look up right now. Has anyone read pirates or better yet participated in?
I also really want a massclaim to happen before digging too much deeper, but also don't think it's probably worth waiting the 3 days it will probably take to happen. Pretty sure GJ hasn't posted toDay and he hasn't really claimed anything? Everyone else has some bit of a claim out I think?
I have a lot more to come, but need lunch and to do some actual work.
@tom, @Rhand I see both of you were in that game. Input please? This is the post game post I found of Iso talking about it with sounds like roles changed due to balance concerns and town was apathetic so he let them know so the town would put in effort or something? Maybe the similarity is how many extra kills have hit town? I don't totally follow and would like to hear it from mostly tom considering you were the top poster in the game I would assume you have a good understanding of the situation.
I think tom has a point on LnG's ability being similar to a killing role. It's very similar to leashed vig shot in that he can just choose someone super towny and the other person is almost certainly getting voted. Not guaranteed because the other challenger could also choose someone who has been towny, but still mechanically it's similar to a modified vig shot.
Which does make xy slip closer to the scum side and also then moves chris closer to town side. I am sorta paranoid that Chris is town here and scum team is just open wolfing saying he is the for sure lynch.
Why didn't anyone else comment on this? Do you agree or disagree with this assessment and what do you think LnG's role says about the balance of the other claimed roles? Can we get that massclaim first before the champions are decided?
I also don't like how derpy Vaimes was playing with LnG's request to vote him and then lack of actually doing so. I'd like to hear more on that and see what LnG has to share after that happens too.
Yeah, Vaimes mislynch isn't happening. He's unaligned with both Chris and GJ. Plus just clearly town on top of that.
I also don't like how derpy Vaimes was playing with LnG's request to vote him and then lack of actually doing so. I'd like to hear more on that and see what LnG has to share after that happens too.
@GJ claim - I think that kinda has to be town if he doesn't get cc'd. With all the killing abilities in the game town needed to have some protection that's not behind a throne unlock.
EBWOP: I just realized I flip-flopped RE and Tubba so Winds didn't kill 2 Baratheons. In which case if Chris/xy is scum and performed the kill on RE, I did actually hit my alt wincon. But I have no control or way of knowing if that happened so it's still moot and my motivation to make sure I win the game is still 100% as town.
@everyone - my theory on the mylo situation
I wanted to see the mass claim finish out to see something, but it probably doesn't matter because scum probably wouldn't claim it anyway. And that's that the scum team has a guaranteed way to put scum on the throne which makes their factional kill unblockable which accounts for the inevitable mylo situation and why shadow wouldn't have accounted for it in the beginning of the game because the throne protection would likely be inactive at the state in the game in which it should matter. But since every single kill and lynch went this way it created this game state that wasn't accounted for where our protection is invalidated during a Night in which we need it to stand a chance. This could either be through the tinfoil world in which Winds is just scum and it's 6v6 (LnGs ability accounts for that not just being game over immediately toDay) with one of the scum having the ability to self-nominate. Or it could be in any world in which there is another Tubba-like role out there that is scum and is able to guarantee someone on the throne.
Lynch Winds toDay is something to think about since he is anti-town as far as a mylo situation is concerned and that guarantees us another Day and a smaller pool. But if SK we lose his shot at another scum potentially. Also, even if he is SK, there is a very high chance he shoots me toNight and even with a scum lynch, two town deaths toNight is still a loss I think? Maybe not since it would be 4v4v1 in that case and the throne would be inactive to get the scum team a guaranteed kill. So I think it would just put tomorrow at mylo if GJ is town Dr and lylo if not. Check my numbers please.
So yeah, I think it's possible Winds is just scum, but if he isn't AND scum has the guarantee someone to the throne ability we still lose toNight. However, it does seem like scum having a mult-shot vig would be stupidly balanced. In which case, Chris is just scum because I think shadow would have ended the game upon nomination if this was town vs SK since that's a guaranteed loss.
Basically, either Winds is SK and Chris is scum, or Winds is just scum and Chris could still be either. I am leaning towards the former and will probably vote Chris.
Please tell me if I made a mistake somewhere in this logic.
Mylo means if we lynch town it's an autoloss, by definition.
I suppose it's a little late now anyway since you have Chris locked in and if he is town scum probably wins, but there is still a chance to discuss it before a lynch happens.
@tom
Which does make xy slip closer to the scum side and also then moves chris closer to town side. I am sorta paranoid that Chris is town here and scum team is just open wolfing saying he is the for sure lynch.
Why didn't anyone else comment on this? Do you agree or disagree with this assessment and what do you think LnG's role says about the balance of the other claimed roles? Can we get that massclaim first before the champions are decided?