Well, another pro tour come and gone, this time with a shiny new banned list to go with it. I've held back from making too many claims until after the pro tour, but now it's time for me to cut loose. I'm not going to waste time with preamble, so let's jump right in.
My initial predictions for Modern after the banned list, though I never formalized them into one post, were largely as follows:
Bitterblossom was not going to make waves. I've been saying this for a while, and I was saying it after the pro tour. Bitterblossom was underwhelming in modern every time I tested it. It's a good card, but in a world where Abrupt Decay is legal and the format carries as wide an assortment of threats as Modern does, you don't want to be the guy endstepping Mistbind Clique. I thought it would absolutely not make top 8, but maybe someone would call the metagame right with it and have a few people make day 2. Nothing particularly good.
Wild Nacatl would be quite strong, but the metagame would adapt, people would be ready with hate, and it would prove to be perfectly fair in the format. It would be strong, people would play it, it wouldn't be the end of the world.
Jund would lose out a lot. I'm gonna say this very clearly: I don't think Jund is dead. Far from it. However, it's now less consistent. I predicted the death of 4-color (since the manabase just doesn't support it), but that Jund itself would do fine. Not great, but fine.
Graveyard decks would see a resurgence. Note, I don't mean graveyard-based combo like Goryo's Vengeance reanimator, I mean decks that use the graveyard as a major resource. Graveyard-based combo just isn't competitive if it can't fight through much harder graveyeard hate than Deathrite Shaman, so I didn't expect a huge upswing. The decks that really got hurt by it were decks that used the graveyard as their advantage engine. Traditionally, these decks (like Loam, say) have been able to use more vulnerable graveyard interactions because opponents wouldn't want to board in dedicated graveyard hate just to deal with your advantage engine. They'd be wasting a card, and still have to deal with the rest of your deck. Deathrite, however, by providing targeted graveyard hate while generating tempo and reach in various forms, made that strategy untenable. As a result, I predicted more Knight of the Reliquary, more Life from the Loam, more Pyromancer Ascension, and more Gifts Ungiven.
How did I do? Let's see:
I was right on in my assessment of Bitterblossom. All the pros dropped it pretty quickly, and while it did decently for itself, it did not make top 8 and did not finish in the money.
I was pretty close in my assessment of Wild Nacatl. I called that it would underperform relative to the doomsayers, but underestimated how much it would. I expected it to make top 8. I also expected the best version to play a bit of blue, which was way off the mark. I attribute this to the lack of combo compared to what I thought (I expected there to be a minor combofest day 1 as everyone started playing graveyard-based combo again), the fact that I wasn't in the know about Anger of the Gods until only a couple days before the pro tour, and the fact that Blue Moon came out of nowhere. Incidentally, whoever made that deck deserves a metal. Not a fancy metal, but a metal nonetheless. To that person: thank you for showing everyone that Modern is still FAR from solved.
I was right on in my assessment of Jund, I'd say. I think it underperformed a bit more than I expected overall, and overperformed in some cases. This suggests to me that the deck is still strong, but most of the good players abandoned it, leaving the idiots and a few people who figured out where to go after losing Deathrite. Those last few people did great (because people thought Jund was dead and didn't prepare enough), and the idiots did poorly.
Finally, I was pretty far off in my assessment of graveyard decks. There was little to no Loam in the format, I didn't see much in the way of Gifts, and Knight of the Reliquary, which I thought was a big winner from the bans, was nowhere to be seen. Incidentally, I don't think the zoo players were right to not include Knight in their lists. These 1-drop-heavy zoo builds are very fast, and probably have the fastest goldfish, but they're vulnerable to Anger of the Gods and they still lack some staying power. I do like the Boros Charm/Ghor-clan Rampager combo they played, that was inspired, but Knight gives a lot of staying power, he can get huge, and you should never underestimate the power of a land toolbox. I think as the format matures, Knight will become a better and better choice. But who am I to say? I'm not much of an aggro player.
The other big story, and this is one I sorta called, was the resurgence of Storm. Now, I dislike storm in modern personally, though I certainly respect it as a deck choice. I just dislike these all-cantrip, mostly all-goldfish styles of decks. When you contrast it with, say, ANT in Legacy or TPS in Vintage (which was my favorite deck after Meandeck Gifts back in the day), which pack a lot of disruption and have tons of interaction at all times, and have tutors to back it up, there's just no comparison for me. I won't disparage storm players, and I know the deck is strong, I just don't love that that's what storm looks like today. That said, it delivered a command performance at the pro tour, fulfilling my prediction of more Graveyard decks (ironically, it was really a Graveyard-based combo, given how much Ascension and Past in Flames rely on the graveyard). That actually worries me some, since it means Wizard's burning hatred for storm as a deck means this may warrant another banning, and that Seething Song is less likely to come off the Banned List, which in turn makes my favorite Modern deck (URw Ritual Gifts) a lot less viable.
So what won? Well, URW won out in a major way, taking the tournament and proving to be a very powerful strategy (I actually think it's better than Pod right now). Blue Moon emerged out of nowhere and is awesome. Amulet Combo delivered its first strong performance, and I look forward to seeing more of it. Twin won too, but it's unclear what version is going to be best going forward.
What lost? Tron. Oh, tron. I've hated R/G tron since it was created, and finally it's dying. UW tron still doesn't look that good right now, unfortunately, but I can live with that. Faeries is still not a good deck choice. Jund lost a fair amount, but it's still kicking and probably always will be.
Finally, it's time for me to discuss my thoughts on the banned list overall. First off, I should preface this by saying that I like the way the banned list is right now, and though it could see some improvement, I don't think it's backbreaking. The format is in a good place at the moment, and I'd be wary of disrupting that.
That said, there are some shameful issues here.
First, Golgari Grave-Troll doesn't deserve its place and needs to be unbanned as soon as possible. It's embarassing, having it there. If you look at their original reasoning for banning Grave-troll, it's as follows: "The real power of Dredge is that every card draw that is replaced by dredging five or six cards effectively allows the Dredge player to draw two or three cards. By that metric, Golgari Grave-Troll is the strongest "card-drawing spell" in the Dredge deck, and it doubles as a win condition. Therefore, it seemed like the best place to attack the deck. You can still play Dredge, but you'll be dredging a little bit slower, and you'll have to play real targets to reanimate instead of getting Golgari Grave-Troll for free." First off, any time dredge was reanimating Grave-Troll, they were probably not winning. Second, you can't play dredge today, because a couple months later they banned Dread Return, on the grounds it broke the turn-3 rule. Not only is that logic incorrect (Dredge never broke the turn-3 rule, and indeed was quite slow at the time), but it also renders banning Grave-Troll moot, since dredge is now dead. But what about other graveyard decks? Isn't Grave-Troll a great enabler for those, too? Well, no, it's not. Grave-Troll demands that you have a way to get it into your graveyard repeatedly, and to keep drawing cards. Additionally, since every time you dredge it you're drawing a 5-drop and you can't play any lands from your Graveyard in modern, either you're doing this around turn 4-5 so you can get lands out and develop a board first (in which case what's the problem, it doesn't break the turn-3 rule and anyone who can't deal with a graveyard deck that starts rolling turn 4-5 shouldn't be playing modern in the first place), or you're doing it without developing the board. That means that your entire strategy has to operate out of the graveyard, and the only strategy that does that in modern is Dredge. In short, Grave-Troll is banned because it enables a deck that's pretty much unplayable in Modern.
The only other card I'm really thinking about for unbanning right now is Seething Song. Admittedly, that's for personal reasons. While I have done a certain level of analysis that suggested that, while Storm may have broken the turn-3 rule before the ban, it certainly didn't do so as consistently as certain other decks (mainly Affinity and Infect), neither of which had anything banned. This suggests to me that Song wasn't banned because wizards wanted storm to not violate the turn-3 rule, they did it because they didn't like storm. Now, there are valid reasons for wizards not to like storm. But that doesn't change the fact that Seething Song didn't really deserve the ban.
Why should it be unbanned, then? Storm had a good showing at the pro tour, do we really want to buff it now? Well, I don't think Seething Song would make storm particularly dominant, and even if it did a lot of decks in the format are equipped to deal with storm (UWR and Twin can both adapt to it easily, as could Blue Moon, and Zoo might even be able to race it). But also I want it unbanned because it enabled other decks, most notably Hive Mind and Ritual Gifts. Am I biased in this? Totally. But I still think I'm right.
All right, I've pointlessly rambled long enough. Thanks for reading,
LK