Quote from WarMachinePrime »I hope you see that these are two different things entirely.
They are and they aren't at the same time. As for power of play, yes they are coming at different angles, but that isn't what I was referring to. I was referring to straight variance/luck.
Increasing variance (by reducing consistency) by banning a green card would be the same as banning a black card (Thoughtseize) which would increase the variance of a black deck. Thoughseize is a guaranteed hit on turn 1 or 2. There is ZERO variance when it is played. No luck involved. And nearly no skill involved as well. People aren't going to hold all land hands. You hit a card and it will always be the most important card. Its a shotgun blast that is guaranteed (ZERO variance) to pick apart a hand early game. Then on top of that it gives valuable information of what and how an opponent will be playing. I would like to see the increased variance of players making a choice between Despise and Duress. Now there is some real variance. Even a "whiff" isn't so, again knowing an opponents hand is HUGE in this game.
Killing OuaT reduces green variance by introducing inconsistency. A ban of TS would do the exact same thing, reduce black consistency and up variance. It can be argued that banning TS would be a far greater blow to black decks than OuaT to green. But that is another debate.
I hope I have conveyed my point and I am not trying to enflame. I am pleased as punch at the recent bans and I hoping they cut just a bit deeper soon. Just my opinion, nothing more, nothing less.
There are two problems here, though, in the Thoughtseize discussion. First, targeted discard isn't a skill-less play. It requires understanding of the board state, your opponent's deck, and your outs. Say you can TS on turn one and your opponent has Teferi, Time Raveler, Narset, Parter of Veils, and Search for Azcanta. Well, you can't kill enchantments in Black, so do you take Search? Are you relying on playing cards reactively? Do you take 3feri. Do you have card draw in hand? Do you take Narset? What if one of these cards is instead Oko, Thief of Crowns? What does the rest of your hands look like? What if you take 3feri, but Search let's then bin a land next turn and draw another one, anyway? TS isn't just cast and win. Many games have been thrown by choosing incorrectly. Secondly, as I eluded to, some cards Black has an astronomically difficult time dealing with. It's nice to not just auto fold to enchantments and artifacts. I'd also like to mention against burn or low-to-the-ground aggro TS might be helping them. What if I TS and all they have is Loxodon Smiter? Already happened to me a few times at my local LGS. Whiffing on discard is bad.
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Here is the primer
https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/established-modern/midrange/572973-bw-midrange-deadguy-ale?page=54
Also this list is very old and budget as hell, but at least shows the idea has some merit. It was the only large tournament I ever played with the deck, 120+ person PTQ while pod and twin were still around and I still managed top 8.
http://www.mtgmintcard.com/mtg/decks/eventdecks/khans-of-tarkir-ptq-roanoke/jason-freischlag/wb-midrange
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Not disagreeing with your overall sentiment, just pointing out they aren't exactly the same thing.
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Well if you sold them to card kingdom for cash you'd get $56. For credit you'd get $72.8. Doesn't seem like a terrible deal for you if you don't plan on using them.
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I'd rather that over it being the only deck. The card is just way too powerful with the cheaper eldrazi from BfZ and Oath. The card will never see the light of day again.