2) SFM is way better than tarmagoyf because at the very worst it tortured for something.
Additionally - a sword equipped by turn 4 is still a faster clock then a jace played on turn 4.
Moroever - SFM allows you to play sword + equip by turn 4 with leaving mana up for disruption if you need it. That's huge.
Worst case scenarios are only one (I will admit, a very important) parameter used to judge the viability or strength of a card. Worst case, best case, average case, and the likelihoods of any of them combine to give an idea of power level. Looking at only worst case scenarios is extremely disingenuous. I mean, rampant growth is better than scapeshift, right?
Neither Jace nor SFM are properly described as "clocks". I mean technically it is true in the same way that a tomato is a berry, but we have better descriptors for them than "clocks". That isn't the point of either and both are extremely inefficient at it. Swinging with a creature equipped with a sword on turn 5 is pretty slow even if it is faster than being fatesealed to death. In a format defined by ridiculously efficient threats and quick, powerful combos you are really just splitting hairs at that point.
I haven't seen anyone bring up the point that if you are playing SFM and tutoring a sword and equipping it and disrupting by turn 4 then the creature equipped is probably SFM herself. You really need to have a 1 drop creature turn 1 or turn 3 to take full advantage and then you've had only 1 mana on either turn 1 or 3 to interact.
All that to say this could be the reason of the unban of Jace/Elf. What if Wizard decided to unban those spoilers in order to reduce the number of tier decks and so, giving a most signifant place for skill ?
This is simply tinfoil hat theory that directly opposes what was stated in the recent ban announcement (quoted for reference)
R&D has been happy with the evolution of the Modern metagame over the past year, and Pro Tour Rivals of Ixalan made for an outstanding viewing experience for fans of the format.
and
When we discuss changes to the B&R, we are far more interested in healthy play patterns, diversity in the metagame, interactive gameplay, and decks having counterplay and counterstrategies than in what deck won the last tournament.
Wizards clearly likes the meta how it is and there are plenty of explanations as to why they would unban Jace and BBE but to homogenize the format is not one of them. The unbans may do that, but it would be an unintended consequence that they decided was worth the risk, not the reason for doing it. It is good for Wizards for as many decks as possible to be viable because it keeps the format interesting, it gives them more options for meaningful reprints in the masters and supplemental products, and it means there is more of a chance that a new card will impact the format and cause the new set to sell than if there were only two of three viable decks.
My point is that small creature removal is more prevalent in modern than in legacy because the diversity of threats is greater in legacy. According to MTGOldfish's "most commonly played legacy creatures list" SFM is #5. Delver is #2, Snapcaster is #4, and Young Pyromancer is #6 yet those range from not great to awesome in modern. None of the swords or batterskull crack the top 50 spells, with Jitte being the only legit SFM target on the list.
It's a great card and they aren't going to unban it but these are different formats with different metas and just because something is borderline format defining in one doesn't mean it will be broken in another.
I know this is speculation, but I expect Fetchlands (*all 10) in Dominaria, and the Manlands in M25. With the resurging prices of both Bloodbraid Elf and Jace, the answer is to sell - but with other cards, we need to be very careful about how we analyze
Any evidence or reason into that spec? I'd be absolutely stunned if they ever print fetches in standard again, especially so soon and with a multicolor block still in standard. I think it was the main reason fetches were in MM when they could've used them to sell a standard set instead.
Swords are not played in modern because there is no way to effectively tutor them. Too easy to draw at the wrong time or when you don't need them.
The reason why SFM is a riskier unban than jace is three-fold.
1) It would fit into more of the current top decks. Humans would play it. Death and Taxes would play it. Variants of control would play it.
2) SFM is good vs every deck other than combo. It's good vs aggro (get battleskull). It's good vs midrange (get battleskull or sword of light and shadow). It's good vs control (get fire and ice). It's even "ok" vs combo. Jace would actually be worse vs combo then SFM because SFM represents an absurdly fast clock (fire and ice). There is zero way a combo deck is beating a thalia with a sword of fire and ice equipped.
3) JTMS is extremely slow and does not fit well into an aggressive format like SFM would
Again, there is steelshaper's gift if the swords were really that powerful. It isn't the lack of ability to get them that keeps them from being played; it is the plethora of cheap removal that makes paying 2 to equip only to have your creature killed in response not very enticing. I was honestly most excited about using SFM to tutor up grafted wargear.
Humans would more than likely not play SFM. Not only is SFM not a human so it doesn't trigger things like champion of the parish or thalia's lieutenant, but they would have a lot of difficulty casting it when 8 of your lands can only make colored mana for humans. In addition, they would almost certainly never be able to activate her when 12 of their lands only add mana for creatures. Similarly, adding equipment to humans both dilutes the value of aether vial, but also makes thalia, guardian of thraben worse. It would be a completely different deck to make the concessions to play SFM and we would likely see two distinct strategies emerge.
Similarly, D&T would need to alter their gameplan away from leonin arbiter. They definitely would but it isn't as simple as just removing the 6 worst cards for the SFM package. Also who is calling D&T a top deck?
Some control decks (and not all) would use her, but then they are giving the opponent a target for the removal that is usually dead against control. All of the "she's good vs..." talk may or may not be true, but to call SFM "an absurdly fast clock" is clearly incorrect.
I think I'd prefer countersquall or even just negate to jace's defeat. It isn't like there are a ton of blue creatures worth countering.
True, even something like Disdainful Stroke might be a better answer to more threats in the format. However, I can certainly think of a few other blue spells I'd rather counter, not just creatures. (Although countering Snapcaster Mage is a not insignificant option.)
Forgot that one, but yes, stroke isn't a bad option either. Negate and countersquall can both counter any blue spell as well so I still think those are just more useful options, and countering the snap isn't a huge deal when you can just counter the spell he is targeting. I'd say the biggest loss moving from jace's defeat to negate like effects is not being able to counter storms creature engines.
Very good points. I doubt we will see a cycle either now going through your post. I do see you mention windswept heath, but that was the only Khans fetch that was reprinted in a supplemental product (clash pack I believe?) which had a lot of good value and sold well. There are quite a few more copies of heath than any other fetch. Curious why you think heath will be the fetch?
Perhaps we can take it as understood that the poster meant Jace's Defeat.
I'm honestly starting to think his defeat may be one of the better answers in the format. Sorcery speed removal is not something you want to bank on as an answer against control. Instead of creature based damage or sorceries, it'll be interesting to see which faster answers become the most prominently used against Jace, or even BBE.
I think I'd prefer countersquall or even just negate to jace's defeat. It isn't like there are a ton of blue creatures worth countering.
For what it's worth: if you had to put money on a rare duel land cycle in M25, what are you betting on?
Zenfetches in A25.
Over the manlands and after the mm reprint? I guess it is possible, but I'd say unlikely. It'd be interesting if they decide to split up cycles or even give us two cycles.
I have the option of trading for a fetid heath or a celestial colonnade. My money is on the manlands being in M25 but I would not be shocked if they had the filter lands instead. Wondering what you guys think is the better target.
You're making a choice between a card that only sees commander play at best and a card that sees widespread play across multiple formats. It isn't even going to matter if there is a reprinting, get the colonnade.
Fair enough, I want both for modern, and I actually plan on using the heath more, but collonade has a much greater demand so even with a reprint it is probably the better decision.
For what it's worth: if you had to put money on a rare duel land cycle in M25, what are you betting on?
I have the option of trading for a fetid heath or a celestial colonnade. My money is on the manlands being in M25 but I would not be shocked if they had the filter lands instead. Wondering what you guys think is the better target.
I am a huge proponent of unbanning SFM and so it is hard for me to approach the subject objectively but I did find something interesting of which we should take note. Here is the original modern announcement and justification for the initial banlist
In discussing SFM they stated "I hope that the fact this card is on the banned list isn't a surprise to you. Stoneforge Mystic has by now made its mark on every format from Standard to Legacy, and Stoneforge-based blue control decks regularly do well in Legacy tournaments. Porting such decks into Modern was a trivial affair, and resulted in very powerful decks. We prefer to just ban this card rather than risk yet another format dominated by Stoneforge Mystic."
But the Jace discussion is quite a bit less ominous "You'll notice that we haven't touched a blue card yet. When we got to this point and realized that blue was escaping unscathed, we knew we had to ban something, or a very powerful blue control deck would likely be the best thing left. We had a large number of choices, but we chose to take our cues from Legacy, as an excellent way to measure objective card power is to see what cards are played in Magic's most powerful high-level tournament format. Jace, the Mind Sculptor is the obvious candidate. Jace is strong enough to be banned in Standard, is a Legacy staple, and has been in three of the four decks that made the finals of the last two Vintage championships."
The difference in these two is striking. They state that Jace got banned because they realized they had to ban something that was blue and they figured people had seen enough of him in standard and could play him in legacy if they wanted. They never stated he was too good for modern, or even potentially very dangerous. They simply stated at the time they were concerned blue based control decks would be the best in the format and Jace was the obvious candidate.
The SFM explanation though straight up says it should not come as a surprise and that they don't want to risk another SFM dominated format. I realize that this was from 2011 and the format is worlds different now, but I think it shows that all along they saw Jace as acceptable as far as power level and they were waiting until the meta was right to release him. They clearly don't believe that about SFM according to that announcement. They paint SFM as the single biggest offender in their "second criterion" category, with the rest all kind of halfheartedly tossed in. I mean dread return sounds more likely to come off than SFM does from that announcement.
I know many of us were surprised that SFM got leapfrogged for Jace, but the writing has been on the wall since 2011. Maybe we shouldn't have been.
EDIT: Also something else to note. They clearly (at least at the beginning) look at legacy as a parameter when discussing modern bans and I believe legacy certainly had some effect on SFM staying banned.
SDT is never getting unbanned in Modern. It's on the same list of improbable unbans as Skullclamp I bet, even if for different reasons.
I'm over the moon on this whole update and everything it represents. What a massive turnaround from 12 months ago. It's also a triumph for those that have been trumpeting Modern over the past year (especially the last 4 months) and had to combat those who kept denouncing it as unhealthy despite all the evidence to the contrary. I welcome the unbans, the new open approach to Modern management, and the Wizards stamp of approval on this iteration of the format.
I'm glad you are enthusiastic about this announcement; you are generally level headed about these kind of controversial topics. Really communication is what we need to maintain confidence between wizards and the player base and on that front this was terrific. I am also ecstatic they unbanned cards when by all accounts "no changes" would've been hailed as a success. It shows the application of a new approach to the format other than the "ignore until broken, then ban something" cycle we've been on forever.
On a macro level I appreciate the announcement, but still, personally, I can't help but be more disappointed by this ban announcement than any in recent memory if simply because SFM clearly got skipped for Jace and now has a grave for herself in modern. A "no changes" would've at least given me hope that the best was yet to come but it has come and it wasn't what I was hoping for.
Congrats to all those excited to try out JtMS; she may homogenize midrange and she may push the format a little faster but I doubt she breaks it. I just know I am less excited about modern today than I was yesterday and will be for years because we just are not going to get SFM.
So we were never going to see all 3 come off at once, I thought it was gonna be BBE this time, SFM next time, and Jace the time after that.
Is there any reason this would have an impact on SFM coming off in the next announcement or two? I would think if these go well then we will see more agressive unbans, but is there any reason it would be LESS likely?
It makes it nearly certain SFM won't come off in the next announcement or two and probably the next four or five. The format will take awhile to stabilize from this to where we even begin to have an idea of what the meta looks like and what optimized decklists are. That alone makes it less than a 1% chance anything gets unbanned in the next several announcements. In addition, if this does "go well" then there is even less need for unbanning SFM because these help similar archetypes that SFM would. Combine all this with the fact that caw-blade was one of the biggest boogiemen in the history of magic and we are looking at years before we are even seriously discussing SFM again.
What is the easiest way to go about obtaining all the cards online so that you can actually redeem them? I am interested in getting a full set of theros for EDH purposes. I did not play many theros drafts online so I would need some commons, uncommons, everything. Do I just have to take the time to pick through vendors?
For real though, I'd say there are a couple too many situational counters in the main for my taste.
Worst case scenarios are only one (I will admit, a very important) parameter used to judge the viability or strength of a card. Worst case, best case, average case, and the likelihoods of any of them combine to give an idea of power level. Looking at only worst case scenarios is extremely disingenuous. I mean, rampant growth is better than scapeshift, right?
Neither Jace nor SFM are properly described as "clocks". I mean technically it is true in the same way that a tomato is a berry, but we have better descriptors for them than "clocks". That isn't the point of either and both are extremely inefficient at it. Swinging with a creature equipped with a sword on turn 5 is pretty slow even if it is faster than being fatesealed to death. In a format defined by ridiculously efficient threats and quick, powerful combos you are really just splitting hairs at that point.
I haven't seen anyone bring up the point that if you are playing SFM and tutoring a sword and equipping it and disrupting by turn 4 then the creature equipped is probably SFM herself. You really need to have a 1 drop creature turn 1 or turn 3 to take full advantage and then you've had only 1 mana on either turn 1 or 3 to interact.
This is simply tinfoil hat theory that directly opposes what was stated in the recent ban announcement (quoted for reference)
and
Wizards clearly likes the meta how it is and there are plenty of explanations as to why they would unban Jace and BBE but to homogenize the format is not one of them. The unbans may do that, but it would be an unintended consequence that they decided was worth the risk, not the reason for doing it. It is good for Wizards for as many decks as possible to be viable because it keeps the format interesting, it gives them more options for meaningful reprints in the masters and supplemental products, and it means there is more of a chance that a new card will impact the format and cause the new set to sell than if there were only two of three viable decks.
It's a great card and they aren't going to unban it but these are different formats with different metas and just because something is borderline format defining in one doesn't mean it will be broken in another.
Any evidence or reason into that spec? I'd be absolutely stunned if they ever print fetches in standard again, especially so soon and with a multicolor block still in standard. I think it was the main reason fetches were in MM when they could've used them to sell a standard set instead.
Again, there is steelshaper's gift if the swords were really that powerful. It isn't the lack of ability to get them that keeps them from being played; it is the plethora of cheap removal that makes paying 2 to equip only to have your creature killed in response not very enticing. I was honestly most excited about using SFM to tutor up grafted wargear.
Humans would more than likely not play SFM. Not only is SFM not a human so it doesn't trigger things like champion of the parish or thalia's lieutenant, but they would have a lot of difficulty casting it when 8 of your lands can only make colored mana for humans. In addition, they would almost certainly never be able to activate her when 12 of their lands only add mana for creatures. Similarly, adding equipment to humans both dilutes the value of aether vial, but also makes thalia, guardian of thraben worse. It would be a completely different deck to make the concessions to play SFM and we would likely see two distinct strategies emerge.
Similarly, D&T would need to alter their gameplan away from leonin arbiter. They definitely would but it isn't as simple as just removing the 6 worst cards for the SFM package. Also who is calling D&T a top deck?
Some control decks (and not all) would use her, but then they are giving the opponent a target for the removal that is usually dead against control. All of the "she's good vs..." talk may or may not be true, but to call SFM "an absurdly fast clock" is clearly incorrect.
Forgot that one, but yes, stroke isn't a bad option either. Negate and countersquall can both counter any blue spell as well so I still think those are just more useful options, and countering the snap isn't a huge deal when you can just counter the spell he is targeting. I'd say the biggest loss moving from jace's defeat to negate like effects is not being able to counter storms creature engines.
I think I'd prefer countersquall or even just negate to jace's defeat. It isn't like there are a ton of blue creatures worth countering.
Over the manlands and after the mm reprint? I guess it is possible, but I'd say unlikely. It'd be interesting if they decide to split up cycles or even give us two cycles.
Fair enough, I want both for modern, and I actually plan on using the heath more, but collonade has a much greater demand so even with a reprint it is probably the better decision.
For what it's worth: if you had to put money on a rare duel land cycle in M25, what are you betting on?
liliana's defeat doesn't do anything to Jace
https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/latest-developments/welcome-modern-world-2011-08-12
In discussing SFM they stated "I hope that the fact this card is on the banned list isn't a surprise to you. Stoneforge Mystic has by now made its mark on every format from Standard to Legacy, and Stoneforge-based blue control decks regularly do well in Legacy tournaments. Porting such decks into Modern was a trivial affair, and resulted in very powerful decks. We prefer to just ban this card rather than risk yet another format dominated by Stoneforge Mystic."
But the Jace discussion is quite a bit less ominous "You'll notice that we haven't touched a blue card yet. When we got to this point and realized that blue was escaping unscathed, we knew we had to ban something, or a very powerful blue control deck would likely be the best thing left. We had a large number of choices, but we chose to take our cues from Legacy, as an excellent way to measure objective card power is to see what cards are played in Magic's most powerful high-level tournament format. Jace, the Mind Sculptor is the obvious candidate. Jace is strong enough to be banned in Standard, is a Legacy staple, and has been in three of the four decks that made the finals of the last two Vintage championships."
The difference in these two is striking. They state that Jace got banned because they realized they had to ban something that was blue and they figured people had seen enough of him in standard and could play him in legacy if they wanted. They never stated he was too good for modern, or even potentially very dangerous. They simply stated at the time they were concerned blue based control decks would be the best in the format and Jace was the obvious candidate.
The SFM explanation though straight up says it should not come as a surprise and that they don't want to risk another SFM dominated format. I realize that this was from 2011 and the format is worlds different now, but I think it shows that all along they saw Jace as acceptable as far as power level and they were waiting until the meta was right to release him. They clearly don't believe that about SFM according to that announcement. They paint SFM as the single biggest offender in their "second criterion" category, with the rest all kind of halfheartedly tossed in. I mean dread return sounds more likely to come off than SFM does from that announcement.
I know many of us were surprised that SFM got leapfrogged for Jace, but the writing has been on the wall since 2011. Maybe we shouldn't have been.
EDIT: Also something else to note. They clearly (at least at the beginning) look at legacy as a parameter when discussing modern bans and I believe legacy certainly had some effect on SFM staying banned.
I'm glad you are enthusiastic about this announcement; you are generally level headed about these kind of controversial topics. Really communication is what we need to maintain confidence between wizards and the player base and on that front this was terrific. I am also ecstatic they unbanned cards when by all accounts "no changes" would've been hailed as a success. It shows the application of a new approach to the format other than the "ignore until broken, then ban something" cycle we've been on forever.
On a macro level I appreciate the announcement, but still, personally, I can't help but be more disappointed by this ban announcement than any in recent memory if simply because SFM clearly got skipped for Jace and now has a grave for herself in modern. A "no changes" would've at least given me hope that the best was yet to come but it has come and it wasn't what I was hoping for.
Congrats to all those excited to try out JtMS; she may homogenize midrange and she may push the format a little faster but I doubt she breaks it. I just know I am less excited about modern today than I was yesterday and will be for years because we just are not going to get SFM.
It makes it nearly certain SFM won't come off in the next announcement or two and probably the next four or five. The format will take awhile to stabilize from this to where we even begin to have an idea of what the meta looks like and what optimized decklists are. That alone makes it less than a 1% chance anything gets unbanned in the next several announcements. In addition, if this does "go well" then there is even less need for unbanning SFM because these help similar archetypes that SFM would. Combine all this with the fact that caw-blade was one of the biggest boogiemen in the history of magic and we are looking at years before we are even seriously discussing SFM again.