For more reprints, either demand for the entire set of five has to push ordering more sets, or else shops will have to mark up the decks that do sell to make up for the fact that they can't order just the specific hot sellers (*cough*Mind Seize*cough*) and will have to make up any difference from unsold or held less popular decks. At least, that's how I expect it would work with speciality shops - the big box stores probably will only bother re-ordering if they move everything.
Based on the trends in both mark-up and particular absences in stores, I wouldn't count on the second wave to lower the cost of the "standout" decks that are already commanding higher prices unless you've worked out a pre-order/reserve deal with your FLGS. It will help for 4/5 decks which you will likely be able to freely get at big box stores, but scalpers will be all over the next wave to snipe and flip Mind Seize for profit. The other four decks will linger on shelves and because of the way they are printed and distributed, further waves will be either limited in number or reduced.
Unless you pre-ordered, or are quick on the draw/get lucky, it might not be possible to avoid paying a premium on Mind Seize from here on out.
This is painful to read! I bet other old fogies think so, too...
I've played since 4th edition, I just find the Modern template much cleaner. That, and I'd have far more proxying if I was to choose to go fully Classic borders.
I don't like how jarring classic border and modern look side by side (and future-shifted), so I have foil proxies for anything that isn't available in new border. I acquire and replace these once they're available, but thanks to the existence of the reserved list there will always be proxies in my cube.
Oh please tell me you'll have a throwaway character who heavily uses the Zendikar trap cards!
Since you're already ragging on Yugi-oh, it's to perfect to have him always yell "you've activated my trap card!" whenever he plays one of them at trap cost.
Call me crazy, but I think that in the wake of MM staples will actually go UP in price.
The expectations and imagined promises will do a lot to hype up those looking to crack into the format and the very minimal injection Modern Masters will bring won't offset the interest it generates.
Take the Goyf, for instance. 1 in 121 Modern Masters packs assuming it follows the usual print sheet formats used in recent times. I'm not quite sure how the rarity of Timeshifted cards breaks down, but assuming it followed roughly the frequency of a normal Future Sight rare, you saw one in 1 out of 50 packs. He's more than twice as rare in this reprinting before even applying any print run modifier. And this pattern will generally hold true for anything they slot into the Mythic Rarity unless it saw original print in Alara block as a Mythic. Pray that none of your other sought after staples land into the Mythic Slot, although the cynic in me predicts that's where you'll find your Bob, Vendilion and Thoughtseize.
The best case scenario I see at the moment, given how softly wizards seems to be treading is for the Modern market to stay relatively constant. I see this positively affecting the availability of casual staples (EDH) more than it will Modern itself.
What they are doing with Shocks is a great step, but it's just going to shift the barriers of price-entry to elsewhere. Fetches anyone? Given what happened years past with Chronicles, I understand their cautionary pace, but it's going to take a good injection to really make a difference and MM doesn't sound like it is it.
Offtopic question - How do you go about drafting your Star Wars CCG Cube? Do you typically split people by faction, or draft both sides one after the other?
I don't like the reasoning behind that curve, since mana screw is much more problematic than mana flood. If I had a deck that had no 5 drops at all, but a bunch of 4 drops, that reasoning would indicate that I should run 16 land. I want to have more than a 50% chance of hitting 4 land by turn 4.
In a 40 card deck, the chances of drawing 4 lands by turn 4 are:
15 lands (56.80%)
16 lands (64.02%)
17 lands (70.69%)
18 lands (76.68%)
19 lands (81.90%)
And, since we're discussing the 17/41 deck, here's that statistic for the curious:
17 lands (67.93%)
70-80% is a good target, since curving out is good, but not at the expense spell count. 17 is about the best compromise, which is why it is the accepted norm for limited.
Click on "60 cards, draw first" for a walkthrough of how the numbers are determined, although it simply boils down to this:
I've drawn x cards and want to have y copies of it on average.
On turn 1 (7 cards), I want 1 land, so (40/7) 6 lands.
But, on turn 2 (8 cards) I want 2 lands, so increase to (40/8x2) 10 lands.
Except, by turn 3 (9 cards) I want 3 lands, so change to (40/9x3) 14 lands.
Wait, turn 4 (10 cards) I want 4 lands, so this becomes (40/10x4) 16 lands.
Edit: You'll notice there isn't a turn 5 in the above. To reliably hit 5 lands on turn 5 on average, it would take packing (40/11x5) 18-19 lands, although you're hitting close to 50% of your deck at that point and you need to weigh exactly how crucial an on-curve average 5 drop is. This is why most limited decks shift between 16-18 lands - it's all down to mana requirements (and the curve) of the deck itself.
Already running:
Scalding Tarn
Steam Vents
Volcanic Island
Horizon Canopy or Stirring Wildwood for the fourth Selesnya?
Again, already running:
Savannah
Temple Garden
Windswept Heath
I'm running manland (painland for the enemy pairs) in the fourth slot of every other guild.
For more reprints, either demand for the entire set of five has to push ordering more sets, or else shops will have to mark up the decks that do sell to make up for the fact that they can't order just the specific hot sellers (*cough*Mind Seize*cough*) and will have to make up any difference from unsold or held less popular decks. At least, that's how I expect it would work with speciality shops - the big box stores probably will only bother re-ordering if they move everything.
Based on the trends in both mark-up and particular absences in stores, I wouldn't count on the second wave to lower the cost of the "standout" decks that are already commanding higher prices unless you've worked out a pre-order/reserve deal with your FLGS. It will help for 4/5 decks which you will likely be able to freely get at big box stores, but scalpers will be all over the next wave to snipe and flip Mind Seize for profit. The other four decks will linger on shelves and because of the way they are printed and distributed, further waves will be either limited in number or reduced.
Unless you pre-ordered, or are quick on the draw/get lucky, it might not be possible to avoid paying a premium on Mind Seize from here on out.
I've played since 4th edition, I just find the Modern template much cleaner. That, and I'd have far more proxying if I was to choose to go fully Classic borders.
My present 450 sized cube runs 56 proxies (~12%).
Of that, 18 of those proxies are irreplaceable by my imposed standard and the fact that they are on the Reserved List:
The 10 Duals
Grim Monolith
Library of Alexandria
Recurring Nightmare
Rofellos, Llanowar Emissary
Sarcomancy
Time Spiral
Treachery
Volrath's Stronghold
Dance of the Dead (No wonder I couldn't find this one, the oracle text is something monstrous!)
Opposition
Pox
Since you're already ragging on Yugi-oh, it's to perfect to have him always yell "you've activated my trap card!" whenever he plays one of them at trap cost.
The expectations and imagined promises will do a lot to hype up those looking to crack into the format and the very minimal injection Modern Masters will bring won't offset the interest it generates.
Take the Goyf, for instance. 1 in 121 Modern Masters packs assuming it follows the usual print sheet formats used in recent times. I'm not quite sure how the rarity of Timeshifted cards breaks down, but assuming it followed roughly the frequency of a normal Future Sight rare, you saw one in 1 out of 50 packs. He's more than twice as rare in this reprinting before even applying any print run modifier. And this pattern will generally hold true for anything they slot into the Mythic Rarity unless it saw original print in Alara block as a Mythic. Pray that none of your other sought after staples land into the Mythic Slot, although the cynic in me predicts that's where you'll find your Bob, Vendilion and Thoughtseize.
The best case scenario I see at the moment, given how softly wizards seems to be treading is for the Modern market to stay relatively constant. I see this positively affecting the availability of casual staples (EDH) more than it will Modern itself.
What they are doing with Shocks is a great step, but it's just going to shift the barriers of price-entry to elsewhere. Fetches anyone? Given what happened years past with Chronicles, I understand their cautionary pace, but it's going to take a good injection to really make a difference and MM doesn't sound like it is it.
We can apply the same math and find out!
Chance of opening a hand with less than 2 lands or more than 4 in a 40 card deck:
15 lands - 22.37%
16 lands - 20.97%
17 lands - 20.55%
18 lands - 21.10%
You are correct - 17 has the slight probable edge there.
In a 41 card deck:
16 lands - 21.51%
17 lands - 20.72%
18 lands - 20.86%
It's not 50%, however, it's a bit north of that. Using math we can determine our chances. Here's the rundown: http://www.kibble.net/magic/magic10.php
In a 40 card deck, the chances of drawing 4 lands by turn 4 are:
15 lands (56.80%)
16 lands (64.02%)
17 lands (70.69%)
18 lands (76.68%)
19 lands (81.90%)
And, since we're discussing the 17/41 deck, here's that statistic for the curious:
17 lands (67.93%)
70-80% is a good target, since curving out is good, but not at the expense spell count. 17 is about the best compromise, which is why it is the accepted norm for limited.
http://wiki.mtgsalvation.com/article/Mana_curve
Click on "60 cards, draw first" for a walkthrough of how the numbers are determined, although it simply boils down to this:
I've drawn x cards and want to have y copies of it on average.
On turn 1 (7 cards), I want 1 land, so (40/7) 6 lands.
But, on turn 2 (8 cards) I want 2 lands, so increase to (40/8x2) 10 lands.
Except, by turn 3 (9 cards) I want 3 lands, so change to (40/9x3) 14 lands.
Wait, turn 4 (10 cards) I want 4 lands, so this becomes (40/10x4) 16 lands.
Edit: You'll notice there isn't a turn 5 in the above. To reliably hit 5 lands on turn 5 on average, it would take packing (40/11x5) 18-19 lands, although you're hitting close to 50% of your deck at that point and you need to weigh exactly how crucial an on-curve average 5 drop is. This is why most limited decks shift between 16-18 lands - it's all down to mana requirements (and the curve) of the deck itself.