Now, if the poll had the following:
1) A random selection of 'expert' modern magic players ('expert' defined by a rigid construct such as an arbitrary amount of hours playing the format or accrued ranks in tournament play).
2) The options in the poll were randomized, instead of displayed alphabetically, such that the options wouldn't produce a 'primacy' effect. Since it was displayed alphabetically, Bloodbraid Elf was higher on the list and seen earlier. Thus, more people were likely to see her. 'I don't want any cards banned now' was at the bottom, thus it was less likely for people to see it before choosing an earlier option.
3) A comparator poll to function as a control, in similar design as above, but which could be something like a random selection of 'non-expert' modern magic players.
4) Run a formal test with a defined threshold to determine if the polls were different from one another.
*You'd have a 'better' source of evidence- the randomized control trial. The only thing that is 'better' than a RCT is a meta-analysis, which compares the results from multitudes of polls, which were conducted in the same manner, before drawing a conclusion.
Until then, as inferior as they might be, I'll take my expert opinions.
I need someone to explain to me a Modern/metagame reason why some people are so upset about the JTMS unban. I hear that the M25 connection feels shady and I think most of us are open to some suspicious speculation about this. But I also see a lot of dissatisfaction based on JTMS's metagame positioning or prospects. This is what I don't understand. How are people so sure this card is dangerous or format-warping? Have you actually tested it? I don't think we have any clue what this card will do, which probably means it will be merely good like many other powerful Modern staples. So where is all this confident hate coming from?
"I was on the fence about unbanning Jace, the Mind Sculptor but interested in giving the planeswalker a trial run. After playing our match and being reminded of just how powerful Jace is, it's hard to imagine it being allowed to run wild in Modern. While a midrange deck like Jund is a good matchup for Jace, the Mind Sculptor—and it's certainly true that a four-mana planeswalker isn't all that scary against decks like Affinity, Storm, and Tron—if Jace, the Mind Sculptor is unbanned, it would push all the midrange and control decks toward running it and probably reduce the diversity of the format."
He did some very light testing to come to that conclusion, but the doubt is against Jace, by default, because of what I remember him doing in standard during Worldwake block. Wizard's is playing a dangerous game by unbanning him, in my opinion.
Except over 90% of the people who voted in this poll wanted unbans. There may have been disagreements on what cards to unban, but the players overwhelmingly showed they wanted unbans.
...and I said Bloodbraid Elf , the highest voted card in the poll, is understandable. Jace, The Mind Sculptor ? I'm not convinced that the players wanted him unbanned more than Wizards. This is a problem. I think the players should decide, not Wizards, but that's my opinion.
I don't like it. I think modern was a balanced and diverse machine with more deck originality than ever before. Channel Fireball recommended 'no change.' MTGGoldfish recommended 'no change.' I'm honestly sick of Wizards hashing their decisions on statistics from Magic Online- an outdated, unfurnished system with biased results that are derived from arbitrary definitions of 'pro players.'
I can partially understand why Bloodbraid Elf was unbanned. Each season, people hoped they would see her again, only to be disappointed by her continued absence. I have a softspot for Jund. It didn't place top-8 in the last Rivals Pro Tour. However, Modern does not 'need' Jund to be the competitive and diverse format that it is now (or at least during the last Rivals Pro Tour). Abzan made top-8, albeit with some skepticism in it's consistency.
Jace being unbanned? This is blatant arms-dealing by Wizards. We know Wizards unbanned Jace to sell more 25th Anniversary product. The players are playing the cards, yet Wizards is playing the players. I hate this. To prove that we players are the deciding consumer base, Wizards should have made no changes.
I entirely agree with Matt Sperling, "[Wizard's] is not just changing the weather, they're selling umbrellas."
Modern:
Eye of Ugin is banned
Mox Opal is banned
Splinter Twin is unbanned
EXPLANATION OF CHANGES
We are sorry, but we completely messed up. We failed to pay any attention to the community and will now proceed to have our heads examined. The community said that Twin was required to police the format, but we failed to pay them any attention. For that, we unleashed the Eldrazi upon modern and created one of the worst seasons of all time. Although we were smart enough to ban several free mana spells like Rite of Flame and Seething Song, we didn't figure a land that was designed to summon giant 7+ CMC Eldrazi's, recurrently, would be a problem if it instead discounted broken 4CMC Eldrazi, which exiled cards from people's hands. We didn't figure having two 5/5s on turn 3 would be a problem, either. We only wanted to "shake things up a bit," but boy, we hit modern with an Earthquake at Super 10 Richter Scale. We're banning Mox Opal because The Prophet said so and we're unbanning Splinter Twin because there's only so many cards from the last Modern Masters 2015 set we can ban.
Eureka. I think I've solved the puzzle. Some of your guys' posts helped me out.
Here is a list of possible scenarios and what I'd recommend to do for each:
1) Modern moves forward with a diverse set of archetypes. The top 8 decks have a wide assortment of colors, cards and strategies. Continue to invest in modern if this happens. It's unlikely that Wizards will ban anything, because nothing is sticking its head out too far. If newly printed cards showed up in the top 8 this way, Wizards would definitely be happy as well as all the players. New players will have an easy time getting in. Veteran players will be happy to see new opponents and strats. Wizards sells new cards and makes money. Everybody wins.
2) Modern fails to evolve. The top 8 decks show repeated archetypes, cards and strategies. There's only 2-3 different decks in the top 8. It's too risky to continue investing in modern if this happens. Like many people have said here: Wizards will most likely ban the next top card and the format will cause players to be in constant fear- nobody's collection is safe. Repeated archetypes means the same old decks keep returning to the top 8, making it tough for new players to get in. We're looking for something like: 3/8 showings of the same deck in the top 8. We're looking for ~10% of the deck in the meta entirely. Those are clues of over-saturation and a highly probable ban.
3) Modern moves forward with one obvious problem. The top 8 decks show 5-6 slots with plenty of diversity, but there is one obvious deck that repeatedly stagnates the format. Do not invest in the stagnating deck if this happens. It is obviously going to receive the inevitable ban-hammer. This scenario is essentially a combination of the two above.
This is what I'll play by. Got a plan on how to play this game now.
The EDH rules committee is up against an impossible battle. They realize that if they tried to balance the format with bannings, the banlist would become the size of a phonebook. Instead, they chose to limit the banned list to cards that have infamously sucked the fun out of the format.
Tucking effects are capable of sucking the fun out of the format (regular player gets his commander tucked by Spin into Myth).
Tucking effects are also capable of keeping the fun in the format, but at the expense of at least one player (combo player gets shut down. The rest of the table may have fun, but it's scoop territory for Johnny).
Some horrible degenerate player shows up with a nasty combo deck and the only way to stop him is to use a tuck effect. I've seen it happen, but the game stops being a game at that point. Although this is the best possible argument I can make for pro-tucking, you'll notice it fails to solve a problem that doesn't even stem from within the game itself.
So because the article didn't specify any changes for modern, you don't think there could be another article stealthed in later? Has that ever happened before?
I want to thank everyone here for the wonderful time. Congratulations to Antonio Del Moral Leon and Justin Cohen. That Amulet Bloom deck had our heads spinning.
1) A random selection of 'expert' modern magic players ('expert' defined by a rigid construct such as an arbitrary amount of hours playing the format or accrued ranks in tournament play).
2) The options in the poll were randomized, instead of displayed alphabetically, such that the options wouldn't produce a 'primacy' effect. Since it was displayed alphabetically, Bloodbraid Elf was higher on the list and seen earlier. Thus, more people were likely to see her. 'I don't want any cards banned now' was at the bottom, thus it was less likely for people to see it before choosing an earlier option.
3) A comparator poll to function as a control, in similar design as above, but which could be something like a random selection of 'non-expert' modern magic players.
4) Run a formal test with a defined threshold to determine if the polls were different from one another.
*You'd have a 'better' source of evidence- the randomized control trial. The only thing that is 'better' than a RCT is a meta-analysis, which compares the results from multitudes of polls, which were conducted in the same manner, before drawing a conclusion.
Until then, as inferior as they might be, I'll take my expert opinions.
Quote from SaffronOlive in this article.
"I was on the fence about unbanning Jace, the Mind Sculptor but interested in giving the planeswalker a trial run. After playing our match and being reminded of just how powerful Jace is, it's hard to imagine it being allowed to run wild in Modern. While a midrange deck like Jund is a good matchup for Jace, the Mind Sculptor—and it's certainly true that a four-mana planeswalker isn't all that scary against decks like Affinity, Storm, and Tron—if Jace, the Mind Sculptor is unbanned, it would push all the midrange and control decks toward running it and probably reduce the diversity of the format."
He did some very light testing to come to that conclusion, but the doubt is against Jace, by default, because of what I remember him doing in standard during Worldwake block. Wizard's is playing a dangerous game by unbanning him, in my opinion.
...and I said Bloodbraid Elf , the highest voted card in the poll, is understandable. Jace, The Mind Sculptor ? I'm not convinced that the players wanted him unbanned more than Wizards. This is a problem. I think the players should decide, not Wizards, but that's my opinion.
I can partially understand why Bloodbraid Elf was unbanned. Each season, people hoped they would see her again, only to be disappointed by her continued absence. I have a softspot for Jund. It didn't place top-8 in the last Rivals Pro Tour. However, Modern does not 'need' Jund to be the competitive and diverse format that it is now (or at least during the last Rivals Pro Tour). Abzan made top-8, albeit with some skepticism in it's consistency.
Jace being unbanned? This is blatant arms-dealing by Wizards. We know Wizards unbanned Jace to sell more 25th Anniversary product. The players are playing the cards, yet Wizards is playing the players. I hate this. To prove that we players are the deciding consumer base, Wizards should have made no changes.
I entirely agree with Matt Sperling, "[Wizard's] is not just changing the weather, they're selling umbrellas."
Modern:
Eye of Ugin is banned
Mox Opal is banned
Splinter Twin is unbanned
EXPLANATION OF CHANGES
We are sorry, but we completely messed up. We failed to pay any attention to the community and will now proceed to have our heads examined. The community said that Twin was required to police the format, but we failed to pay them any attention. For that, we unleashed the Eldrazi upon modern and created one of the worst seasons of all time. Although we were smart enough to ban several free mana spells like Rite of Flame and Seething Song, we didn't figure a land that was designed to summon giant 7+ CMC Eldrazi's, recurrently, would be a problem if it instead discounted broken 4CMC Eldrazi, which exiled cards from people's hands. We didn't figure having two 5/5s on turn 3 would be a problem, either. We only wanted to "shake things up a bit," but boy, we hit modern with an Earthquake at Super 10 Richter Scale. We're banning Mox Opal because The Prophet said so and we're unbanning Splinter Twin because there's only so many cards from the last Modern Masters 2015 set we can ban.
Here is a list of possible scenarios and what I'd recommend to do for each:
1) Modern moves forward with a diverse set of archetypes. The top 8 decks have a wide assortment of colors, cards and strategies. Continue to invest in modern if this happens. It's unlikely that Wizards will ban anything, because nothing is sticking its head out too far. If newly printed cards showed up in the top 8 this way, Wizards would definitely be happy as well as all the players. New players will have an easy time getting in. Veteran players will be happy to see new opponents and strats. Wizards sells new cards and makes money. Everybody wins.
2) Modern fails to evolve. The top 8 decks show repeated archetypes, cards and strategies. There's only 2-3 different decks in the top 8. It's too risky to continue investing in modern if this happens. Like many people have said here: Wizards will most likely ban the next top card and the format will cause players to be in constant fear- nobody's collection is safe. Repeated archetypes means the same old decks keep returning to the top 8, making it tough for new players to get in. We're looking for something like: 3/8 showings of the same deck in the top 8. We're looking for ~10% of the deck in the meta entirely. Those are clues of over-saturation and a highly probable ban.
3) Modern moves forward with one obvious problem. The top 8 decks show 5-6 slots with plenty of diversity, but there is one obvious deck that repeatedly stagnates the format. Do not invest in the stagnating deck if this happens. It is obviously going to receive the inevitable ban-hammer. This scenario is essentially a combination of the two above.
This is what I'll play by. Got a plan on how to play this game now.
Tucking effects are capable of sucking the fun out of the format (regular player gets his commander tucked by Spin into Myth).
Tucking effects are also capable of keeping the fun in the format, but at the expense of at least one player (combo player gets shut down. The rest of the table may have fun, but it's scoop territory for Johnny).
Some horrible degenerate player shows up with a nasty combo deck and the only way to stop him is to use a tuck effect. I've seen it happen, but the game stops being a game at that point. Although this is the best possible argument I can make for pro-tucking, you'll notice it fails to solve a problem that doesn't even stem from within the game itself.
Tucking is no longer necessary.
1) No change
2) Summer Bloom/Simian Spirit Guide banned
3) Jace unbanned
Rebound See the Unwritten
-Rich Hagon, Amulet Bloom vs Twin, Grand Final