MTG Salvation

Quote from ktkenshinx »

I need someone to explain to me a Modern/metagame reason why some people are so upset about the JTMS unban. I hear that the M25 connection feels shady and I think most of us are open to some suspicious speculation about this. But I also see a lot of dissatisfaction based on JTMS's metagame positioning or prospects. This is what I don't understand. How are people so sure this card is dangerous or format-warping? Have you actually tested it? I don't think we have any clue what this card will do, which probably means it will be merely good like many other powerful Modern staples. So where is all this confident hate coming from?

Quote from SaffronOlive in this article.

"I was on the fence about unbanning Jace, the Mind Sculptor but interested in giving the planeswalker a trial run. After playing our match and being reminded of just how powerful Jace is, it's hard to imagine it being allowed to run wild in Modern. While a midrange deck like Jund is a good matchup for Jace, the Mind Sculptor—and it's certainly true that a four-mana planeswalker isn't all that scary against decks like Affinity, Storm, and Tron—if Jace, the Mind Sculptor is unbanned, it would push all the midrange and control decks toward running it and probably reduce the diversity of the format."

He did some very light testing to come to that conclusion, but the doubt is against Jace, by default, because of what I remember him doing in standard during Worldwake block. Wizard's is playing a dangerous game by unbanning him, in my opinion.

I don't like it. I think modern was a balanced and diverse machine with more deck originality than ever before. Channel Fireball recommended 'no change.' MTGGoldfish recommended 'no change.' I'm honestly sick of Wizards hashing their decisions on statistics from Magic Online- an outdated, unfurnished system with biased results that are derived from arbitrary definitions of 'pro players.'

I can partially understand why Bloodbraid Elf was unbanned. Each season, people hoped they would see her again, only to be disappointed by her continued absence. I have a softspot for Jund. It didn't place top-8 in the last Rivals Pro Tour. However, Modern does not 'need' Jund to be the competitive and diverse format that it is now (or at least during the last Rivals Pro Tour). Abzan made top-8, albeit with some skepticism in it's consistency.

Jace being unbanned? This is blatant arms-dealing by Wizards. We know Wizards unbanned Jace to sell more 25th Anniversary product. The players are playing the cards, yet Wizards is playing the players. I hate this. To prove that we players are the deciding consumer base, Wizards should have made no changes.

I entirely agree with Matt Sperling, "[Wizard's] is not just changing the weather, they're selling umbrellas."

Comment Hidden

Eureka. I think I've solved the puzzle. Some of your guys' posts helped me out.
Here is a list of possible scenarios and what I'd recommend to do for each:

1) Modern moves forward with a diverse set of archetypes. The top 8 decks have a wide assortment of colors, cards and strategies. Continue to invest in modern if this happens. It's unlikely that Wizards will ban anything, because nothing is sticking its head out too far. If newly printed cards showed up in the top 8 this way, Wizards would definitely be happy as well as all the players. New players will have an easy time getting in. Veteran players will be happy to see new opponents and strats. Wizards sells new cards and makes money. Everybody wins.

2) Modern fails to evolve. The top 8 decks show repeated archetypes, cards and strategies. There's only 2-3 different decks in the top 8. It's too risky to continue investing in modern if this happens. Like many people have said here: Wizards will most likely ban the next top card and the format will cause players to be in constant fear- nobody's collection is safe. Repeated archetypes means the same old decks keep returning to the top 8, making it tough for new players to get in. We're looking for something like: 3/8 showings of the same deck in the top 8. We're looking for ~10% of the deck in the meta entirely. Those are clues of over-saturation and a highly probable ban.

3) Modern moves forward with one obvious problem. The top 8 decks show 5-6 slots with plenty of diversity, but there is one obvious deck that repeatedly stagnates the format. Do not invest in the stagnating deck if this happens. It is obviously going to receive the inevitable ban-hammer. This scenario is essentially a combination of the two above.

This is what I'll play by. Got a plan on how to play this game now.

The EDH rules committee is up against an impossible battle. They realize that if they tried to balance the format with bannings, the banlist would become the size of a phonebook. Instead, they chose to limit the banned list to cards that have infamously sucked the fun out of the format.

Tucking effects are capable of sucking the fun out of the format (regular player gets his commander tucked by Spin into Myth).
Tucking effects are also capable of keeping the fun in the format, but at the expense of at least one player (combo player gets shut down. The rest of the table may have fun, but it's scoop territory for Johnny).

Some horrible degenerate player shows up with a nasty combo deck and the only way to stop him is to use a tuck effect. I've seen it happen, but the game stops being a game at that point. Although this is the best possible argument I can make for pro-tucking, you'll notice it fails to solve a problem that doesn't even stem from within the game itself.

Tucking is no longer necessary.

So because the article didn't specify any changes for modern, you don't think there could be another article stealthed in later? Has that ever happened before?

You have a Summoner's Pact trigger on your next upkeep? Here! Have a Blood Moon! That should help you pay for it!

Antonio is packing the silver bullet against Amulet Bloom, Blood Moon. Now, if anybody knows anything about Blood Moons, see pic on left.

Bloom Titan getting cards banned before Splinter Twin? That would be the day.

I'm one of those guys looking through the window, wanting to get into Modern.

Decks that I predict will become the top 8 and why:

Robots
Seems like a good match against Liliana. Flies over Goyf and Rhino. Flying infect option makes Rhino lifegain less valuable. Better against Abzan. Worse against Jund.

BGx
Majority will be Abzan mid. Liliana is one scary lady. She stops one-trick ponies like Boggle, Geist and Heroic. Decks must either play with her or must find a way to stop her. Jund can board in Shattering Spree to nuke Robots. Jund also gets access to Slaughter Games to stop combo, dead in its tracks. Did you know Rhinos stomp out fires in real life? Rhino stops burn. Abzan also gets Lingering Souls. BGx will be the deck to beat.

Bloom Titan
Sturdy combo, but will Jund pack Slaughter Games to nail Hive Mind?

Twin
How did Twin survive when Pod had access to Linvala? Now that Pod is gone, Twin should come charging out of the gate, stronger than ever. Having both Kiki and Twin is resistant to Slaughter Games.

Jeskai Control
Many options here. Young Pyromancer. Celestial Colonnade, which Lily has trouble against, flies over Rhino. Geist of Saint Traft is terrified of Lily, though.

Scapeshift
Lily might hit a few key cards, but nothing Snapcaster can't flashback. Will Jund pack Slaughter Games to nail Scapeshift for good?

Zoo
Many options here, but I think Knight of the Reliquary will take a backseat so Loxodon can smack Lily. Will board in Stony Silence to shutdown Robots. Ooze is good against Snapcaster.

Tron
Many players will be excited to try Ugin, the Spirit Dragon. Modern CMCs are fairly low, which makes Ugin wipe virtually everything out with ease. His ultimate in a Tron deck is GG. Make no mistake: Wizards spent tons of time on Ugin's design. They want him to be an awesome card. He will be.

Quote from knto »

Quote from Saylord »

...the players, speculators, collectors. Wizards has to tread carefully, you lose one of those and this game will die.

I wasn't goimg to post in this thread but then I read this. I completely disagree with you. Players keep the game going and make it fun. Collectors(wizards way of saying stores while making it sound like they are players) make sure cards are available and that we have a space to enjoy the game. Speculators are a cancer who add nothimg to the game and who only take money from players and collectors and put it in their own pocket while creating supply issues that reflect poorly on wizards. They add NOTHING to the community.

This notion that speculators and investors are somehow necessary to the game's survival is baffling to me. The MTG Finance pundit crew are pretty good at pushing this narrative and people just seem to accept it but it's a complete load of crap. The game survived for a long time without the rampant speculation we see now.

Quote from Courier7 »

I meant to put a comment like this is the other thread about what WotC should do to improve the game but I am not going down that rabbit hole. The overall position I had was that WotC doesn't need to do anything to improve the game; instead, the players need to quit complaining about every single decision that WotC makes...or doesn't make. A card gets spoiled--"this card sucks! It is unplayable in (insert pet format here)" or "that card is strictly worse than (insert pet card from a previously-released set which came out 5, 10, or 15 years ago). A card gets unbanned--"what the--?! they are only unbanning it to make money" (they are a corporation, after all--they are in the business of making money, not making cards) or if a card gets banned--"they hate my deck because it can reliably combo off on turn 3". (well, yes--everyone hates your deck)

I am not saying that players should fawn over all of WotC's decisions, but neither are they the Illuminati. Just roll with it.

People are complaining because the company is not communicating and getting to know what their audience actually wants and needs as far as the game goes. Their solution to trying to fix magic has been to try to force people into a different way of playing the game than keeping up with the evolution of the game, and their lack of balancing constructed needs with their draft sets has created a ton of friction with the player base. It's tiring to see so many people complain all the time, but they have every right to do so.

Quote from Raid The Revenge »

To prove that we players are the deciding consumer base, Wizards should have made no changes.

To prove that we players are the deciding consumer base, we should purchase NO WotC product, most especially NO M25 product, if we do not like this decision. That's what I will do. This decision will not only result in me buying no WotC products but also no HASBRO products (as ultimately this is about enriching Hasbro shareholders), and I will now institute the card-buying moratorium on TCG Player and the local gaming store (sorry fellas). Last year I attended GenCon in Indy and spent a lot on games, much of that WotC/MTG product, and I played in some MTG events. I'm going again this August and will see that my money this year goes to anybody and everybody but Hasbro/WotC or ANY MtG related product, like signed playmats. I will only play MtG on the side, for free.

My thoughts on the unbans today:

1. I do not agree with the JTMS unban in Modern.
2. More than I don't agree w/ the unban, I don't agree w/ the timing or how it was rolled out, on back of two great Modern events showcasing the diversity of decks that people can choose to play.
3. Making him one of the face cards of M25 releasing in a month makes it impossible to communicate to me that this decision is for any reason other than to sell packs of WotC product. If you are gonna cash grab, maybe don't be so naked about it?
4. It's one thing to try and scam me and another thing entirely to be disingenuous about your reasons for the scam. WotC is NOT being transparent (see 3 above).
5. Today's decision is a step back from diversity, and a move to exclusion, not inclusion, of the player base in Modern.
6. It will result in a devolution of the Modern format (going backwards), not an evolution of it, b/c it will drive Midrange decks out of existence...they cannot compete when the opponent untaps w/ JTMS in play.
7. Speaking of Midrange, BBE isn't one of the 50-most played creatures in Legacy (checks in around 105). I think it's impact in Modern is far overstated. It whiffs too frequently in terms of hitting what you need when u need it. Have fun cascading into that worthless discard or removal spell. You'll get that more than you will hit that magic Lily or KCom.
8. I can't wait to see what happens when JTMS goes back on the ban list after M25 sales disappear.

I believe that when WotC screws its players the entire MtG community should feel the burn. I also don't believe in letting mega-corporations like Hasbro screw w/ my pocket book over toys/games. It's one thing to bend me over for the necessities in life like food, water, power, gasoline, stuff I have to buy, but when you start to fleece me over a GAME...I'm out. See, as much as I love games, I love the principle of not being fleeced even more.

I have to point out that your basis for players wanted an umban is shaky at best. Not only did that thread show that people in the thread could not agree on what they wanted unbanned with only blood braid and stoneforge having more voters wanting them unbanned than banned, but the premis of the thread entices people who want some sort of change. Obviously the meta was healthy so there were a reasonable amount of people who thought a banning was unnecessary so they either voted this, or ignored the thread entirely. Sencondly there were 36 options for cards to un ban vs half that for cards to ban meaning there are that many more chances for someone to who is voting to not choose no cards unbanned. It is an observational survey with the only reward being to see your pet card win which doesn't exactly have the makings of a sound expirimental meathod. Those threads are for fun and should not be taken too seriously. I've mostly found it to be pod players arguing with twin players arguing with blue players arguing with jund players about why giving their deck more tools wouldn't be a bad thing. Wizards may have made a good call with the unban, I don't know, but lets not pretend that a mtgsalvation poll is representative of all competetive modern players.

Quote from ktkenshinx »

I need someone to explain to me a Modern/metagame reason why some people are so upset about the JTMS unban. I hear that the M25 connection feels shady and I think most of us are open to some suspicious speculation about this. But I also see a lot of dissatisfaction based on JTMS's metagame positioning or prospects. This is what I don't understand. How are people so sure this card is dangerous or format-warping? Have you actually tested it? I don't think we have any clue what this card will do, which probably means it will be merely good like many other powerful Modern staples. So where is all this confident hate coming from?

My reasons for disagreeing with Jace unban:

1. "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." Modern is the one format they've done right the last year and a half.

2. In light of Standard's failures, Standard's rotation backtrack, the FNM promo backtrack, the card stock quality issue, and crappy PR response to the judge/harassment issues, I don't trust WotC's recent decision-making. They should play it more conservative in the grand scheme of the game as a whole.

3. Lantern hasn't caused rounds/tournaments to drag longer, but guess what does? Brainstorm -> fetch -> rinse/repeat -> fateseal.

4. The unbans will likely reduce deck diversity in Modern as midrange consolidates around the unbans. Mardu, Abzan, CoCo, EldraziTron, RG Eldrazi, and Shadow are all at risk. What do you get in return? A tier 1 Jund and U/X/x Control. Not a good trade-off if you care about diversity.

5. People will lose value on their cards/decks from Point 4.

5. This is a blatant cash grab with huge financial risk if they have to ban Jace again.

EDIT: Meant RG Eldrazi, not RG Tron.

Comment Hidden

Quote from bill_zagoudis »

Quote from Shodai »

It wasn't the "best deck" at multiple points this year though. Affinity was. Even if it was the best, was it really better than the next best to deserve being banned? Are we committed to banning whatever the best is every single year? Why? Doesn't that defeat the purpose of a non-rotating format?

I just don't believe it reduced diversity. We'll find out shortly however, so there's no point debating it. We only have to wait 2-3 months and we'll see if the ban was a good one.

oh no, that's very very wrong, when affinity is the best deck it's the worst deck, when 'experts' and their numbers predict it's fading then you go and play it, affinity can never be the best deck if most people don't believe it's falling, for the next few months affinity will be hated to oblivion, when tron rises it will rise and then drop etc, affinity is a deck with cyclical performance it can never be king of the hill for long

Really? That's strange, I could have sworn that all summer it was top 8 in a massive amount of tournaments, despite being heavily prepared for. Affinity can definitely be hated, but if you don't get that stony silence/kataki, how do you respond to a fully developed board with cranial plating equipped? The deck is so fast sometimes it can fight through the hate

Also, how come their statement on the ban completely ignored the fact that Splinter Twin had almost no success during the summer, even in smaller tournaments? Twin literally almost hit tier 2 this Summer, but didn't thanks to the temur/grixis shares

Affinity is the most winningist deck in modern's history, so I find it strange that it was completely ignored, and I find it completely strange that it's massive amount of top 8's this summer were completely ignored.

I do believe that with RG Tron not having to dedicate half it's sideboard to Twin that it can absolutely dedicate it's board against burn and aggro/infect strategies. Could I be wrong, sure, but I really expect Tron to have answers. It doesn't need to sideboard against control, it naturally crushes those decks

I do apologize about Visions, that wouldn't slot into burn. Outside of it being in the open hand with no creatures, it is a bad draw

I know some of you may laugh at me, but a few years from now, even sooner, I believe the new Ulamog could be banned, he completely destroys any control strategies out there. Having him destroy two permanents upon cast was a massive mistake that I think Wizards only took into account for standard, where things are much slower. If RG Tron casts that on turn 4 against anything like Grixis, Jeskai, Scapeshift, the game is usually a soft-lock win

Do you guys really think most control decks can handle all of Tron's things plus Ulamog, and somehow stopping their land and killing them before hand? Maybe I'm wrong, and feel free to enlighten me why a true control deck could exist in a format with hyper-linear aggro/fast combo decks

Ancestral Vision just isn't going to patch a hole in the wall. What do control decks have at the moment? Keranos, a Celestial Colonnade that we have to tap 5 mana for? Maybe Geist? Sun's champion? What win con can reasonably work in this format that has a fair chance without Jace, or a 2 counterspell. I'd really like to hear ideas, because I really don't see what could do it. Can UR make some kind tier 1/2 tempo deck that could reasonably beat decks?

If Twin being banned meant things like Visions, Jace, pre-ordain/ponder being unbanned, sure, I'd be alright with that

If you look back into this thread, days before the ban announcement, I even mentioned Twin being banned someday because it became too much of, "how can this help control without helping Twin too much?"

I understand where WOTC is coming from, but I think they did it too early before blue had the tools for it to be truly competitive. Some of you guys are saying, "just rebuild UR, maybe make a good tempo/delver deck". Let's be honest, Twin was a good matchup for that deck, and these other tempo decks/delver decks have been massively underwhelming outside of the short-lived TC era

I've read in several of the modern tier 1 forums/tier 2 forums at random times laughing at Jeskai decks, but suddenly it's going to become a contender? I do think there's bias out there

Grixis will NOT work, it's clinging to tier 2. Weak to RG Tron, weak to burn, weak to graveyard hate---this won't be the control deck to take up

Like I said, I understand that Twin needed to be banned someday, but I think control is just too weak right now and they effectively killed control. Scapshift could have some sort of shot, so I won't talk them down, but I'm not optimistic

I'm not optimistic about any powerful unbans for blue. Aaron Forsythe made it VERY clear SOTM will not be coming off, it'll just make Lantern annoying, from what he said. So, really, what happens now? Visions won't just patch up everything, by the time Visions goes off, I'm way behind against these hyper linear aggro decks/combo decks

I haven't read the thread yet, but I imagine it is a lot of people who agree with me and a lot of people who don't. I have to say that I am kinda done with this format for a while- at least spending money on events, singles, or sealed product. In hind site I was wrong about how right the Pod ban was, and I may be wrong about this Twin ban too (I really doubt it), but the idea that the format going forward is going to just ban the best deck even if it is not decreasing the variety of other decks, winning regularly before turn 4, or otherwise dominating a significant number of top 8's (IMO). Even if the recent history of the format had GPs with a little more twin than is ideal, the metagame could have easily adapted and changed that.

All this ban does is make people concerned about their deck if it does well. Not too well, not warping the meta, just well. I wouldn't recommend anyone buy into a deck that has proven to be a solid aspect of the metagame for any amount of time. Infect...no way. In no format should the discussion about a deck ever involve people hoping no one does well with their deck during a big even just because the deck had done well on the two previous. I know that is hyperbole, but I have seen it a couple of times in a couple of archetype threads, and this just exacerbates that. You know what deck will get a big ban next? The best one...for no other apparent reason. A non-rotating format should have people cheering for their favorite deck, not hoping that it doesn't get too high profile.

You know what's great about non-rotating formats? Buying in to a deck and being reasonbly sure that as long as your deck is not breaking one of the core tenants of the format it will be a deck you can pilot for a long while. With bans like Splinter Twin they have introduced a defacto rotation into Modern that is all the worse for being unpredictable.

I have been a ******* cheerleader for this format since day one, and have respected most of the bans so far even if I did not agree with them. I can't see myself doing that as much anymore. All I can do make my voice heard (I will be writing to the appropriate places) and vote with my wallet. As I have said to other people many times, if my view is in the majority and people do the same then Wizards will respond, and if my view is in the minority or people don't do the same then I guess the format has just left me behind. I am not pissing on my collection and then lighting it on fire, but my money is not going to be used to support it. It is simply a matter of do I want to put money into a format that does not make me feel good to support? Why would I?

Really sucks, too. I've long hated Limited, I never wanted to play Legacy really, I lost my faith in EDH with the tuck rule change, and I only half-assed play Standard ever because a buddy of mine does and wants me to go to FNM with him. Magic really has no formats left that I am willing to say that I support, at this point.

Other stuff:
Bloom Ban: Probably the right call, though I would never have objected to a Hive Mind ban as well on pure principle.
No SFM Unban: Yea, I expected as much. I just wish a ban on people talking about an unban came down as well.
No SotM unban: After the Splinter Twin ban I have zero faith that any card that might be used for a combo win, even if the deck that runs it is a Control deck, will come off the ban list.

Quote from lucashungaro »

Decks like Scapeshift, Gifts, UWR Control/Geist just all got *worse*, not better. They lost a good matchup + the bad matchups got a bump. I really don't get the rationale.

Precisely.

I'd like to address two bad arguments that I've seen crop up.

1. "The Splinter Twin ban makes sense, because it allows for more diversity in tempo/control/blue decks."

This relies on a misunderstanding of why diversity exists and why decks are viable (or not viable). Magic is roughly a Rock–Paper–Scissors type of game. An idealized version of a healthy Magic format is: Midrange beats Aggro, Combo and Ramp beat Midrange, Control and Tempo (Aggro-Control) beat Combo and Ramp, and finally Aggro beats Control and Tempo.

However, decks and archetypes are not viable in a vacuum, they are *only* viable because they beat something else. Think of it like this: a format in competitive equilibrium doesn't want to keep the Scissors decks viable just because, instead it "wants" to have as few decks and archetypes as possible. Scarcity, not surplus, is the natural rule.

So, let's say Twin was the best Scissors deck. It could usually beat Paper (Tron and linear Aggro like Infect or Affinity) and lose to Rock (UWR Control, or other blue/control decks; also Jund and other BGx midrange and disruptive decks). When Scissors disappears because of something external to the game (a banning), the Rock decks won't magically step in to fill its role. Instead, they'll become worse because they've lost their natural prey. With Scissors dead, Rock begins to starve, and Paper cleans up.

I know it's a bummer to be brewer and always be told, "If you like blue control, why not play Twin?" but you have to appreciate that Twin is what created the niche for other control decks to exist in the first place. With the major Tempo/Control deck gone, the Ramp, Combo (except Bloom), and linear Aggro (nearly combo decks themselves) decks have nothing to fear.

When the dinosaurs died out, our rat-like mammalian ancestors peaked out of their holes and said, "What's stopping us now?" The answer was nothing.


2. "The Splinter Twin ban makes sense, because WOTC doesn't want a solved format."

This incorrectly implies that Modern was solved or was near to being solved. It was not. In the past year we've seen the competitive ascent of some old decks (Amulet Bloom, Grishoalbrand, Lantern) and we've seen entirely new decks (Eldrazi, CoCo, Grixis) thanks to new cards being printed (BFZ cards, Collected Company, and Tasigur/KCommand/Angler, respectively).

If absolutely no cards had been banned for another year, I guarantee that the meta would have continued to evolve. Slowly and subtlely, yes, but surely. Slow and subtle changes are what we should want for a non-rotating format. (Even chess — considered by some to be a "static" game — has an evolving metagame.) Standard should be fast and drastic, obviously appealing to new players. Modern should be slow and subtle, appealing to players who have been playing for at least two years and who plan to play for many more. The only bad thing about Legacy is its price*, its barrier to entry, not its stability or subtlety.

*And perhaps its lack of color balance. I will go on the record as saying archetype balance (which Legacy has) is far more important than color balance, because balance is only worth having when the things being balanced are inherently different. I'd much rather have a format where, for example, blue control, blue combo, and blue aggro are all viable, than a format with five colors of midrange.

I guess that Jesse's plan is to recur Pulse with Tas and kill the hornet tokens.