As far as I can tell, there was no stated goal for better defining the unfair-fair dichotomy. It's a philosophical conversation about terms that are frequently thrown around on a know-it-when-I-see-it basis. It's greatly enjoyable (for me at least) to see an attempt at a better definition, because more precise words help better describe and then better understand existing and emerging decks.
It's similar to bucketing decks as Aggro, Tempo, or Control archetypes. When those terms are relatively clear to a player, they're lampposts for identifying who's the beatdown, has inevitability, etc. which in turn lead to (at least considering) different approaches in play. Conceptualizing the differences leads to a deeper conversation.
Question since there seems to be decent Amulet Titan expertise in this thread. Why run Amulet Titan over something like Storm? In other words, what's the meta that encourages the former over the latter. Storm seems slightly faster, so is there added resilience or...?
For those still following along, I think the meta has swung back to a place where this deck is very well positioned. Little control, lots of creature decks, and we can grind well enough against the midrange out there. In my last three leagues I'm 5-0, 3-2, and 5-0. Makes me regret trying to make Sultai decks work for the last week rather than just jamming Hardened Scales.
[*]Match-ups with a much worse win rate (bad): Mardu Reveler, Jeskai/UW/UR/Grixis Control, Living End, Valuetown
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you must not be playing chalice of the voids if you have bad match ups against what you've mentioned. chalice is pretty much a wrap against all of those decks
Funny to come back to this comment, because no version I've seen plays Chalice. So yes, fair to say I'm not playing it!
List tags are malformed.
I just want to share my experience here. Taking a break fro KCI, I have been testing Hardened Scales now because I'm really interesting in knowing the bad matchups and the good matchups. Against Jeskai, it is way better and so far against UW, it is definitely NOT favored. I'm not sure what it is. I know I need more testing because UW has always drawn the right things at the right time whenever on the ropes, but so far, I have it at 60/40 Scales vs. Jeskai and 60/40 (at least) UW vs. Scales.
That is a biiiig difference. Bolt and Helix do very little.
*There are still a lot of matchups for Scales that I haven't tested yet, but KCI, Company, Jeskai, UW Control, and (just starting) Humans are the ones that I have tested.
From the control side, I would say that the obvious difference between UW and Jeskai in that matchup is the sweeper package. Terminus cleans up their board, while the 4 mana wraths sometimes will not. Beyond that, our sideboard is also better. We play RiP, which shuts down all the death triggers, while Jeskai doesn't. Also, the angels just slam the door on games. If we Terminus you followed up by a Baneslayer, there's almost no way Hardened Scales is coming back from that.
I've played probably 500+ matches of Hardened Scales on MTGO and you've been on the money with each of your posts. UW Control is a terrible match-up because of Terminus, SB hate, and sometimes angels. The UW Control resurgence hurt its place in the meta. Out of the other decks mentioned, Burn is fairly positive, Jeskai and Tron even. Hardened Scales is indeed looking to prey other creature decks. Bant Spirits is probably the exception, although that match-up is considerably easier against mediocre pilots.
Fantastic. Hardened Scales short of the required 200 matches? It'd be interesting to see how the remainder of the field looked, with the obvious caveat that they're small sample sizes.
It certainly seems to be on par with the Humans/Scales type decks. Top 3 imo.
Wonder what the adjustment will be?
It's tough to say because UW has a lot of 50/50ish matchups. Based on the pooled GP Prague/Vegas/Barcelona/Sao Paolo data, here are the UW Control matchups against a variety of top decks. As usual, shoutout to Erzel for collecting the data. I did the pooling in Excel.
1. UW vs. Affinity: 78.1% (25/32)
2. UW vs. Bogles: 71.4% (10/14)
3. UW vs. Burn: 62% (31/50)
4. UW vs. Counters Company: 57.1% (16/28)
5. UW vs. Gx Tron: 51.9% (28/54)
6. UW vs. Grixis Shadow: 54.8% (23/42)
7. UW vs. Hollow One: 61.3% (19/31)
8. UW vs. Humans: 48.5% (33/68)
9. UW vs. Infect: 59.3% (16/27)
10. UW vs. Jeskai: 36.8% (14/38)
11. UW vs. Jund: 60% (18/30)
12. UW vs. KCI: 54.5% (12/22)
13. UW vs. Mardu Pyromancer: 59.4% (19/32)
14. UW vs. Storm: 31.6% (6/19)
15. UW vs. Titanshift: 42.9% (6/14)
I don't love the smaller Ns on some of these matchups, but hey, what are you going to do with limited GP data? Still, interesting numbers and a good statistical starting point for people looking to attack or play UW. Notable omissions from this list include Bridgevine, UW Spirits, Bant Spirits, and Hardened Scales, as these decks weren't really around in the pre-Prague GP so N is too low.
First off, do you know how the guys collecting this data are accounting for reporting bias? Somebody who's not on reddit and scrubbed out of the tournament in 3 rounds isn't likely to be reporting their results.
About the matchups you mentioned at the end there, I've found Hardened Scales to be a decent matchup for UW the few times I've played against it so far. RiP shuts off modular and Hangerback Walker's death trigger, Path gets around their death triggers, Stony Silence is obviously bonkers, Field kills their manlands, and they don't really have a great way to rebuild if you Terminus them.
It's an atrocious match-up for Hardened Scales. Last time I did the math I was 5-10 versus UW Control and that's including a few matches before UW coalesced on the miracle package. The latest versions of Scales pick up a few points from running Animation Module mainboard and new Karn in the side, but it's still bad. Easily the worst match-up as a Scales pilot.
I'm hoping that was a purely hypothetical question from @AUTUMNTWILIGHT -- nothing about the performance of Hardened Scales or UW Control should even spark the inkling of a ban. KCI has been far from dominant as well.
Legit question: which advantages does Hardened Scales Affinity has over the regular one? Which matchups that normal Affinity would lose does HS beat?
It's significantly different in play. Doesn't fold to Stony and can grind more -- much better against Mardu, Tron types. Walking Ballista means you're favored against most creature decks. It has the ability to occasionally explode, but can also be sequenced for value. I'm a huge fan of the deck but UW Control is by far its worst match-up.
Nail on the head with the last couple posts. Any additions to Humans require the removal of something else. The more you up its grind factor with Bugler, the more you're skimping somewhere else -- hate creatures like Meddling Mage or Freebooter, aggro like Mantis Rider, etc.
"There really isn't a version that is perfect for an open field" sums it up well. And shouldn't be very surprising when we're talking about a tempo (or aggro-control) deck.
That UB Delver vs Death and Taxes inspired me to fire up the Insectile Boy. Looked so awesome.
It honestly makes me wonder why we can't just have straight UB Death's Shadow in Modern. I'm not too certain what the red is adding lately in the format
Not sure, the biggest thing I can see is K Command vs Reanimate? Obviously the blue stuff isn't nearly as good, but if I played black, I would try it out.
That game was really fun to watch, maybe I'll try it anyway.
Temur Battle Rage is probably the biggest reason. In games where you're purely racing or need to blast through chump blockers, it's critical. K Command helps grind obviously, but there are matches where Battle Rage is your best card.
Bridgevine ban talk is premature. There is not enough evidence to suggest it is either top-tier or consistently winning pre-T4. Using past examples of T4 rule violators, we would need to see Bridgevine winning on T2-T3 in about 15%+ of games. That's kind of a guesstimate based on Amulet Bloom's win-rate (around 18%) and UR Storm's recent pre-T4 win rate when that deck was NOT banned (around 10%-12%). People cry for bans all the time in this thread for various reasons. Every single one of those cries was a miss in the last 1.5 years: cards from GDS, E-Tron, Gx Tron, Company decks, Grishoalbrand, Cheeri0s, plus cards like SSG, Moon, Bridge, etc. The vast majority of calls for bans are ultimately unjustified. If we want to separate out the real problems from the imagined ones, we need to wait and we need more results at the GP and MTGO premier event level. We don't have that yet.
Just quoting this because it deserves repeating. Knee-jerk reactions are our forum's forte.
I don't necessarily think that BR vengevine is 'too strong' or can't be dealt with or anything - but Faithless Looting and Ancient Stirrings will continue to create busted modern decks as long as they exist and should be banned for the same reason Pod is banned, because those two cards limit the types of cards that wizards can print that interact with the graveyard and are colorless.
That's an interesting angle to look at, but that argument essentially works against any cantrip. There's a difference between the consistency buff of cantrips and a reusable consistency engine like Pod.
@KTK, there were many other times that there was a problem in modern, and you were cool with it. In the end you were wrong(and @Nial and me, in the end, were right).
Now, I know there are several other times that you were right and we were wrong, but dismissing everything and saying "format is fine", is dangerous.
The first thoughtseize deck is sitting at 3%. This is bad news. What more do you want to admit that? Eldrazi v 2.0? This won't ever happen again probably. But, we are not in the best shape.
Also, we got a KCI deck that is super resilient, is taking long turns, and is tier 1 and uninteractive. This is another problem.
In addition, Stirrings and Looting decks alltogether make up a SIGNIFICANT portion of the meta. This is the most basic problem we are facing.
I believe the new Bridgevine deck, is Dredge all over again, creating sideboard wars and stuff.
Also, I don't have any problem with Humans, as some people said. I think the deck is fine, even if it's on 25% of the meta, because the angles it's operating from is the most basic one you will ever find in a game.
Based on what? I've grinded a lot in Competitive Leagues over the last two weeks and I've seen various incarnations of it only 11 times. That's not nearly enough to conclusively discuss bans (or even a hypothetical "watch list"). Seeing it on camera at the PT a few times is basically anecdotal evidence at this point. Far, far too much of the discussion around BR Vengevine mirrors the excessive concerns at the incredibly broken things Hollow One could rarely do. And look how quickly those fell by the wayside once the meta adjusted.
It's similar to bucketing decks as Aggro, Tempo, or Control archetypes. When those terms are relatively clear to a player, they're lampposts for identifying who's the beatdown, has inevitability, etc. which in turn lead to (at least considering) different approaches in play. Conceptualizing the differences leads to a deeper conversation.
Funny to come back to this comment, because no version I've seen plays Chalice. So yes, fair to say I'm not playing it!
List tags are malformed.
I've played probably 500+ matches of Hardened Scales on MTGO and you've been on the money with each of your posts. UW Control is a terrible match-up because of Terminus, SB hate, and sometimes angels. The UW Control resurgence hurt its place in the meta. Out of the other decks mentioned, Burn is fairly positive, Jeskai and Tron even. Hardened Scales is indeed looking to prey other creature decks. Bant Spirits is probably the exception, although that match-up is considerably easier against mediocre pilots.
Fantastic. Hardened Scales short of the required 200 matches? It'd be interesting to see how the remainder of the field looked, with the obvious caveat that they're small sample sizes.
It's an atrocious match-up for Hardened Scales. Last time I did the math I was 5-10 versus UW Control and that's including a few matches before UW coalesced on the miracle package. The latest versions of Scales pick up a few points from running Animation Module mainboard and new Karn in the side, but it's still bad. Easily the worst match-up as a Scales pilot.
It's significantly different in play. Doesn't fold to Stony and can grind more -- much better against Mardu, Tron types. Walking Ballista means you're favored against most creature decks. It has the ability to occasionally explode, but can also be sequenced for value. I'm a huge fan of the deck but UW Control is by far its worst match-up.
"There really isn't a version that is perfect for an open field" sums it up well. And shouldn't be very surprising when we're talking about a tempo (or aggro-control) deck.
Temur Battle Rage is probably the biggest reason. In games where you're purely racing or need to blast through chump blockers, it's critical. K Command helps grind obviously, but there are matches where Battle Rage is your best card.
Just quoting this because it deserves repeating. Knee-jerk reactions are our forum's forte.
That's an interesting angle to look at, but that argument essentially works against any cantrip. There's a difference between the consistency buff of cantrips and a reusable consistency engine like Pod.
Based on what? I've grinded a lot in Competitive Leagues over the last two weeks and I've seen various incarnations of it only 11 times. That's not nearly enough to conclusively discuss bans (or even a hypothetical "watch list"). Seeing it on camera at the PT a few times is basically anecdotal evidence at this point. Far, far too much of the discussion around BR Vengevine mirrors the excessive concerns at the incredibly broken things Hollow One could rarely do. And look how quickly those fell by the wayside once the meta adjusted.
Please stop the chicken little routine.