I don't think Wizards agrees with the assertion that Modern is filled with interactive decks. There are so many people claiming that Jace doesn't matter because Modern is so fast.
If that's the case, then Wizards clearly feels that Modern needs to slow down. The only way to slow down a format is to empower blue permission. Reprinting Brainstorm or unbanning Ponder is out, for obvious reasons. The only way Wizards has right now to accomplish that mission is to unban Jace. I personally don't believe that's going to be enough, which is why I believe Daze and Counterspell will see print in Dominaria.
Daze reprint but Preordain too good "for obvious reasons? Modern too fast? Lantern Control and Mardu Pyromancer in the finals of the PT. Where where your fast combo decks? How about the last 4 big torunies? Where are the fast combo decks?
PT is split between limited and constructed. You really can't get any good meta-considerations by looking at what decks top 8ed.
27-28 Point Modern Decks
- Mardu Pyromancer
- Traverse Deathshadow
- UW control
- Eldrazi Tron
24-26 point Modern Decks
- Abzan
- UW control
- Boggles
- Traverse Deathshadow
- Lantern Control
- Grixis Control
- U/R Gift Storm
- Tron
- Affinity
- Grixis Shadow
- Tron
- Eldrazi Tron
- Burn
- W/B Eldrazi
- 5 color humans
- Hallowed One
The vast majority of the decks that did well were fast. Only 5 control decks where present.
My fear in all these case of unbans or new powerful mythics is not the power-level or price of the card per-se, but that it would make even more tier-1 expensive. The ultimate horror is when all tier-1 are expensive, making Modern even more pay-to-win. (Or more precisely for nit-pickers, pay-to-not-be-severely-disadvantaged.)
The existence of decks like storm or burn were a balm in the current meta, making somewhat affordable decks playable without shame. The existence of Jund deck and traverse shadow, with the liliana of the vail and tarmogoyf represent the opposite end of the spectrum. UW control unfortunately, falls in the expensive end, with colonade, Command, Snapcaster and now Jace.
The way Wizards chooses to handle reprints by sometimes pushing staple rares to mythics (staple commons to uncommons, too) just goes with the trend. So, to me the unban of JtMS fuel the fear that top-tier blue deck would require a super-expensive card.
"Pay to win" is a terrible way to view TCGs. Cards cost money, thats just the world we live in. My problem is that with Jeskai or UW already fully built, I gotta pay another $200-$400? Imo a card shouldn't exceed $100 that isn't on the reserved list, and Wizards has been trying hard over the years to address that. A few years ago, you couldn't play green without Tarmogoyf, and I don't want that to happen with Jace all over again
Jace was over 100$ when it was in standard/extended.
The price will probably normalize a little bit after people stop freaking out.
My fear in all these case of unbans or new powerful mythics is not the power-level or price of the card per-se, but that it would make even more tier-1 expensive. The ultimate horror is when all tier-1 are expensive, making Modern even more pay-to-win. (Or more precisely for nit-pickers, pay-to-not-be-severely-disadvantaged.)
The existence of decks like storm or burn were a balm in the current meta, making somewhat affordable decks playable without shame. The existence of Jund deck and traverse shadow, with the liliana of the vail and tarmogoyf represent the opposite end of the spectrum. UW control unfortunately, falls in the expensive end, with colonade, Command, Snapcaster and now Jace.
The way Wizards chooses to handle reprints by sometimes pushing staple rares to mythics (staple commons to uncommons, too) just goes with the trend. So, to me the unban of JtMS fuel the fear that top-tier blue deck would require a super-expensive card.
Magic has always been an expensive hobby. Any hobby... sport.. or like activity could technically be considered "pay-to-not-be-severely-disadvantaged" if you stare at it long enough.
So a lot of people are talking about BBE being a problem. Well I have a suggestion. With the return of BBE, if you really think the card is that much of an issue, I would suggest running a few Noxious Revival. This card works two ways.
1) We are able to return whatever card may unfortunately get blown up to a cascade trigger to the top of our library so we can immediately get it back.
2) We can put a useless card in our opponent's graveyard on top of their library for them to cascade into.
Im more concerned with BBE rising up again, it was the card in Jund that I hated most during the early deck development... having a lock get destroyed by BBE cascading into Decay was about as sad as an upside down turtle...
I heavily agree. BBE and cascade will be this the current lantern’s demise. I have a feeling surgical extraction and welding jar will make bigger returns mb just to survive.
Any other suggestions about unboning ourselves?
Ah never mind. Spell played from Exile. In this case Canonist is probably a lot better, or even something weird like Uba Mask that forces them into playing one spell a turn, essentially.
Honestly... BBE is good but it's not the "end of the world". Though it does mean you need a pithing needle naming liliana as soon as possible.
Thank you for the video. Although I agree with LSV with regards to BBE being very good vs us... I don't think we actually loose.
Based on his next point... he also feels like UrzaTron looses too.
I would much rather face Jund (even with BBE) then Urzatron.
I do disagree with his assertion about Jace. I don't think it's "fantastic" vs us.
At least not in the current Jace brews (we're a pithing needle deck after all).
I've done one competitive league since the unban on MTGO and ended up 4-1.
Beat three Jace Decks. My only loss was to Jund.
Beat Jund game 1 but lost to a barrage of ancient grudges. In hindsight if this match becomes popular I probably should be siding in cage and/or find room for extraction.
I'm pissed that I missed out on a foil dreadbore foil for a few dollars. I didn't buy it because I didn't want to spend 2 dollars on shipping. Ugh
The prices are absolutely disgusting right now, K-Command, Collective Brutality and Blackcleave are skyrocketing
Blue staples are as well
I want to play Blue on MTGO but that's getting to be too much, too
I honestly really didn't want to spend money for the next two months or so, and now I've spent so much the past few days
On MTGO: you can always rent. Not to get off topic but it is an option (one I would personally recommend).
And that's magic. When you think you're out... it reals you back in ._.
For more tempo/midrange-oriented versions who want Jace, it can be useful to play some creatures that can defend Jace. Young Pyromancer(tokens) and Spell Queller can do a good job at that in many matchups. Something like this perhaps:
I don't think such a build makes much sense, but if the intention is to defend Jace, I'd rather play Wall of Omens or Thing in the Ice. For the record, I thought about it, and I think Jeskai Tempo is dead after this unban.
[quote from="knto »" url="/forums/the-game/modern/789239-the-state-of-modern-thread-b-r-10-02-18?comment=262"]The reason why SFM is a riskier unban than jace is three-fold.
1) It would fit into more of the current top decks. Humans would play it. Death and Taxes would play it. Variants of control would play it.
I find it very doubtful that Humans would play Stoneforge Mystic. One can watch the Pro Tour for examples of how the deck can have trouble casting anything that isn't a Human (e.g. Kataki), but it's even worse with Stoneforge Mystic because a key strength of that card is its ability to put equipment into play. A major facet to Human's success is its ability to run 12 rainbow lands with essentially no drawback. But none of those rainbow lands can be utilized to activate Stoneforge Mystic. Not one of them! To properly utilize Stoneforge Mystic, Humans will have to trade in rainbow lands that have basically no drawback in favor of much worse cards like Mana Confluence or City of Brass.
Beyond that, Humans is an aggro deck. Certainly, there's disruption in it, but it's still very aggressive. Spending several turns and a bunch of mana for Stoneforge Mystic while not putting actual pressure on the opponent does not seem to fit well into the deck's strategy.
You are completely correct that it'd be an all-star in Death & Taxes, but Death & Taxes is not a top deck of the format.
2) SFM is good vs every deck other than combo. It's good vs aggro (get battleskull). It's good vs midrange (get battleskull or sword of light and shadow). It's good vs control (get fire and ice). It's even "ok" vs combo. Jace would actually be worse vs combo then SFM because SFM represents an absurdly fast clock (fire and ice). There is zero way a combo deck is beating a thalia with a sword of fire and ice equipped.
It feels like one can mount the same argument for Tarmogoyf. It's good vs aggro (it's a cheap wall), good vs midrange (it's a good attacker), and it's good against control (same).
As for Sword of Fire and Ice providing an absurdly fast clock, we need to remember that while it might be fast once assembled, it takes several turns to pull it off. You can't actually attack with anything attached to that until turn 4 at the earliest, and in the meantime you've just been fuddling around casting Stoneforge and then casting (or sneaking) the Sword into play. You might have great pressure starting on turn 4, but you've presented absolutely nothing in the way of pressure in the interim.
As for Thalia+Sword, the decks that run Thalia already have great combo matchups in general, so I don't see this as changing that much.
3) JTMS is extremely slow and does not fit well into an aggressive format like SFM would
This is the best point you raise, but I feel I should point out that while Jace is slow, you can do whatever you want on your first three turns before casting him. Stoneforge isn't really able to start doing its thing until turn 4 (turn 3 if Batterskull blocking is relevant), and that requires you to spend turn 2 casting the thing and turn 3 spending most or all of your mana getting the equipment into play.
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2) SFM is way better than tarmagoyf because at the very worst it tortured for something.
Additionally - a sword equipped by turn 4 is still a faster clock then a jace played on turn 4.
Moroever - SFM allows you to play sword + equip by turn 4 with leaving mana up for disruption if you need it. That's huge.
Swords are not played in modern because there is no way to effectively tutor them. Too easy to draw at the wrong time or when you don't need them.
The reason why SFM is a riskier unban than jace is three-fold.
1) It would fit into more of the current top decks. Humans would play it. Death and Taxes would play it. Variants of control would play it.
2) SFM is good vs every deck other than combo. It's good vs aggro (get battleskull). It's good vs midrange (get battleskull or sword of light and shadow). It's good vs control (get fire and ice). It's even "ok" vs combo. Jace would actually be worse vs combo then SFM because SFM represents an absurdly fast clock (fire and ice). There is zero way a combo deck is beating a thalia with a sword of fire and ice equipped.
3) JTMS is extremely slow and does not fit well into an aggressive format like SFM would
Again, there is steelshaper's gift if the swords were really that powerful. It isn't the lack of ability to get them that keeps them from being played; it is the plethora of cheap removal that makes paying 2 to equip only to have your creature killed in response not very enticing. I was honestly most excited about using SFM to tutor up grafted wargear.
Humans would more than likely not play SFM. Not only is SFM not a human so it doesn't trigger things like champion of the parish or thalia's lieutenant, but they would have a lot of difficulty casting it when 8 of your lands can only make colored mana for humans. In addition, they would almost certainly never be able to activate her when 12 of their lands only add mana for creatures. Similarly, adding equipment to humans both dilutes the value of aether vial, but also makes thalia, guardian of thraben worse. It would be a completely different deck to make the concessions to play SFM and we would likely see two distinct strategies emerge.
Similarly, D&T would need to alter their gameplan away from leonin arbiter. They definitely would but it isn't as simple as just removing the 6 worst cards for the SFM package. Also who is calling D&T a top deck?
Some control decks (and not all) would use her, but then they are giving the opponent a target for the removal that is usually dead against control. All of the "she's good vs..." talk may or may not be true, but to call SFM "an absurdly fast clock" is clearly incorrect.
Notice I said body + tutor. steelshaper's gift doesn't see play because if you don't have a body it worthless.
There is cheaper removal in legacy... plus "free counter spells". But SFM is still a format defining card.
Humans would most likely play it. Sure it doesn't trigger champion or thalia, but a turn 4 battle skull or sword to equip is probably better.
Man, I feel like the only non-conspiracy theorist here who actually believes that WOTC honestly judged JTMS to a fair card in modern again. I mean, let's say that's the case, they really truly believe that modern is ready for him. Would you then want them to reprint Jace in their next masters set, or not?
I agree it does feel a little greedy, but I don't think that's the only (or even simplest) explanation here.
Even if Jace won't break modern, the point is that modern was incredibly healthy and balanced. From this point on a Jace unban can only make the format worse. And they still went with it. Because they don't care about the format but about the money. And Wizards being greedy is by far the simplest explanation here, considering everything that has been happening the past few years. Like the worse quality of cards. The prime example of WotCs greed.
That's not entirely true. We can not absolutely say "Jace will make the format worse" simply because the format is currently in a decent spot.
"Incredibly healthy and balanced" is overstatement of the facts. For example, control decks still have a relativly low conversion rate in comparison to the rest of the field.
But it is still relatively healthy and balanced.
Not absolutely, but all things considered that would be the a far more reasonable conclusion, than Jace improving the format in any way.
Like I said, control decks have a lower conversion rate than any other deck in the meta.
If Jace increases that conversion rate without skewing the meta, then you'd be incorrect.
Battleskull isn't even the most degenerate thing you can do with SFM. A turn 4 sword + equip that can't be countered is.
If you could easily tutor sword of fire and ice and get it into play around counter magic... that would shake up the format to such an absurd degree.
countermagic doesn't even see play in modern. The only useful part of that tap ability is that it cheats on mana. Swords aren't even played in modern in any archetype. Spot removal ends up tempoing you endlessly. The good part of sfm on modern is it is a 2 for 1 and a win condition for 4-6 mana over 2 turns. It still loses to combo and is easier to answer than a planeswalker. The argument against it isn't that it is a true name nemesis fpr modern. Its that it's above the curve for efficiency similar to goyf or drs. I would say that it is "safe" to unban in a similar way to why jace was "safe", it will skee the meta. I prefer sfm personally because it's much easier for every color to interact with, but I am biased in that my deck struggles more with jace than sfm. Jace obviously gives your more turns to draw your answer before it resolves even if that answer is snap bolt, hero's downfall, turn 3 thoughtseize or other awkward plays.
Swords are not played in modern because there is no way to effectively tutor them. Too easy to draw at the wrong time or when you don't need them.
Body + sword is extremely relative and powerful. Without it I would argue swords wouldn't even see play in legacy.
The reason why SFM is a riskier unban than jace is three-fold.
1) It would fit into more of the current top decks. Humans would play it. Death and Taxes would play it. Variants of control would play it.
2) SFM is good vs every deck other than combo. It's good vs aggro (get battleskull). It's good vs midrange (get battleskull or sword of light and shadow). It's good vs control (get fire and ice). It's even "ok" vs combo. Jace would actually be worse vs combo then SFM because SFM represents an absurdly fast clock (fire and ice). There is zero way a combo deck is beating a thalia with a sword of fire and ice equipped.
3) JTMS is extremely slow and does not fit well into an aggressive format like SFM would
EDIT: I actually don't think there is a single legacy deck that plays a sword without SFM.
I think you can easily make the argument that SFM is what makes swords playable.
Also, look at JTMS' price movement for the last few days and tell me that some people don't get inside info.
To be fair though, JTMS and Bloodbraid have been speculation targets for unbanning for a while now. They always see some movement in the days prior to B&R announcements.
People have been talking about that for many months, but the price movement started very suddenly and sharply a few days ago, as if by the flick of a switch. You can see from the price curve exactly when the info was passed on or leaked. Compare it to the SFM speculation movement from some time ago and observe the difference.
It is very obvious indeed. Rudy from Alpha Investments has been also saying this for a while now, and I see no reason not to believe it.
JTMS was also part of a fake leak... that ended up being real (although the leaked information wasn't - also predicted the banning of bridge and no BBE). Don't forget about that. Price started going up when the fake spoiler got posted.
Man, I feel like the only non-conspiracy theorist here who actually believes that WOTC honestly judged JTMS to a fair card in modern again. I mean, let's say that's the case, they really truly believe that modern is ready for him. Would you then want them to reprint Jace in their next masters set, or not?
I agree it does feel a little greedy, but I don't think that's the only (or even simplest) explanation here.
Even if Jace won't break modern, the point is that modern was incredibly healthy and balanced. From this point on a Jace unban can only make the format worse. And they still went with it. Because they don't care about the format but about the money. And Wizards being greedy is by far the simplest explanation here, considering everything that has been happening the past few years. Like the worse quality of cards. The prime example of WotCs greed.
That's not entirely true. We can not absolutely say "Jace will make the format worse" simply because the format is currently in a decent spot.
"Incredibly healthy and balanced" is overstatement of the facts. For example, control decks still have a relativly low conversion rate in comparison to the rest of the field.
I do find it funny you are suggesting the numbers of Jace wanted in Lantern will either be 0 or 2. And here I am suggesting 1.
Why do you think you need 2? I'm not going to argue the 0, because yeah, Jace could just be incredibly horrible. But I want the justification for 2 of them.
Honestly.. I don't know. Just a hunch. It's probably legacy wearing off on my where Jace is a solid 2 of.
I think, part of it, is you nearly always want the jace in play as quickly as possible. But... you don't want to draw more then 1. Ever.
If you played only one jace (especially with no real draw power) you would draw it so inconsistently it would be largely irrelevant.
That's why I feel like its either zero or two. Also - I feel like you don't want to play more than 2 four-mana spells.
Effectively Jace takes the tez spot. And I wouldn't want to just play just one tez for the same reason.
EDIT: If I did cut a thoughtseize for a second brutality, I would SB the 4th seize.
PT is split between limited and constructed. You really can't get any good meta-considerations by looking at what decks top 8ed.
27-28 Point Modern Decks
- Mardu Pyromancer
- Traverse Deathshadow
- UW control
- Eldrazi Tron
24-26 point Modern Decks
- Abzan
- UW control
- Boggles
- Traverse Deathshadow
- Lantern Control
- Grixis Control
- U/R Gift Storm
- Tron
- Affinity
- Grixis Shadow
- Tron
- Eldrazi Tron
- Burn
- W/B Eldrazi
- 5 color humans
- Hallowed One
The vast majority of the decks that did well were fast. Only 5 control decks where present.
Jace was over 100$ when it was in standard/extended.
The price will probably normalize a little bit after people stop freaking out.
Magic has always been an expensive hobby. Any hobby... sport.. or like activity could technically be considered "pay-to-not-be-severely-disadvantaged" if you stare at it long enough.
How would we modify the 75 to fit it in?
Honestly... BBE is good but it's not the "end of the world". Though it does mean you need a pithing needle naming liliana as soon as possible.
Thank you for the video. Although I agree with LSV with regards to BBE being very good vs us... I don't think we actually loose.
Based on his next point... he also feels like UrzaTron looses too.
I would much rather face Jund (even with BBE) then Urzatron.
I do disagree with his assertion about Jace. I don't think it's "fantastic" vs us.
At least not in the current Jace brews (we're a pithing needle deck after all).
I've done one competitive league since the unban on MTGO and ended up 4-1.
Beat three Jace Decks. My only loss was to Jund.
Beat Jund game 1 but lost to a barrage of ancient grudges. In hindsight if this match becomes popular I probably should be siding in cage and/or find room for extraction.
On MTGO: you can always rent. Not to get off topic but it is an option (one I would personally recommend).
And that's magic. When you think you're out... it reals you back in ._.
I am looking forward to playing control again
Do you think we'd still play spell queller?
2) SFM is way better than tarmagoyf because at the very worst it tortured for something.
Additionally - a sword equipped by turn 4 is still a faster clock then a jace played on turn 4.
Moroever - SFM allows you to play sword + equip by turn 4 with leaving mana up for disruption if you need it. That's huge.
3) See above point.
Notice I said body + tutor. steelshaper's gift doesn't see play because if you don't have a body it worthless.
There is cheaper removal in legacy... plus "free counter spells". But SFM is still a format defining card.
Humans would most likely play it. Sure it doesn't trigger champion or thalia, but a turn 4 battle skull or sword to equip is probably better.
Like I said, control decks have a lower conversion rate than any other deck in the meta.
If Jace increases that conversion rate without skewing the meta, then you'd be incorrect.
Swords are not played in modern because there is no way to effectively tutor them. Too easy to draw at the wrong time or when you don't need them.
Body + sword is extremely relative and powerful. Without it I would argue swords wouldn't even see play in legacy.
The reason why SFM is a riskier unban than jace is three-fold.
1) It would fit into more of the current top decks. Humans would play it. Death and Taxes would play it. Variants of control would play it.
2) SFM is good vs every deck other than combo. It's good vs aggro (get battleskull). It's good vs midrange (get battleskull or sword of light and shadow). It's good vs control (get fire and ice). It's even "ok" vs combo. Jace would actually be worse vs combo then SFM because SFM represents an absurdly fast clock (fire and ice). There is zero way a combo deck is beating a thalia with a sword of fire and ice equipped.
3) JTMS is extremely slow and does not fit well into an aggressive format like SFM would
EDIT: I actually don't think there is a single legacy deck that plays a sword without SFM.
I think you can easily make the argument that SFM is what makes swords playable.
JTMS was also part of a fake leak... that ended up being real (although the leaked information wasn't - also predicted the banning of bridge and no BBE). Don't forget about that. Price started going up when the fake spoiler got posted.
That's not entirely true. We can not absolutely say "Jace will make the format worse" simply because the format is currently in a decent spot.
"Incredibly healthy and balanced" is overstatement of the facts. For example, control decks still have a relativly low conversion rate in comparison to the rest of the field.
But it is still relatively healthy and balanced.
Honestly.. I don't know. Just a hunch. It's probably legacy wearing off on my where Jace is a solid 2 of.
I think, part of it, is you nearly always want the jace in play as quickly as possible. But... you don't want to draw more then 1. Ever.
If you played only one jace (especially with no real draw power) you would draw it so inconsistently it would be largely irrelevant.
That's why I feel like its either zero or two. Also - I feel like you don't want to play more than 2 four-mana spells.
Effectively Jace takes the tez spot. And I wouldn't want to just play just one tez for the same reason.
EDIT: If I did cut a thoughtseize for a second brutality, I would SB the 4th seize.