This is such a good post, and it hits in the nail on the head with the "Tron problem".
I feel that the BBE ban was absolutely fantastic since I now see much less Jund while still being a quite popular deck, and I love that I have a good shot at winning against them when in a topdeck war; it's much better to have a Cryptic Command against a topdecked Olivia than a BBE.
Jund is still very powerful, but much more "fair" now.
But I've also noticed an INSANE amount of Tron, mostly in the new Blue from (which in my opinion is much better and annoying), which could be a problem. Getting Mindslavered turn after turn, while having a turn 3 Wurmcoil beat your face, AND getting your Sowing Salts/Molten rains countered is quite disgusting.
So I'm starting to think that the Seething Song ban may have been a mistake, since it keeps Tron decks in check (although we'd have to see about the blue one with counters...), even if I've always HATED storm and its 5 minute turns.
It will be interesting to see how the metagame evolves ^^
PS: I play WUR Geist of Saint Win mostly
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- Danteh
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As enablers go, Tarfire is by far the best one and what makes RUG good. Bauble is excellent too, ofc. I don't really like thought scour because it's very unreliable (sometimes you mill 2 types, sometimes 2 instants - there's no way of knowing) and makes the deck a bit unstable. Gitaxian Probe is less explosive but 100% surely puts a sorcery in the yard for free.
Traverse can be a grindy card, but it is also brutal for setting up Erayo, Soratami Ascendant - I'll say it again, Erayo is probably the BIGGEST Traverse payoff since you can fetch it whenever you want to and flip it with some Baubles/Probes as early as T3. That is GG against most non-Decay decks.
Since we don't have Tarfire in BUG, the next best thing is Architects of will, for 1 mana you put an artifact and creature in the yard and draw a card.
IMO it's also important that Whispers can be useful a bit later in the game. T2 Hymn to Tourach is backbreaking, but 3 Vapor Snags help keep up the tempo-ish plan and Whispers can be used to discard the returned creatures, essentially also "killing" them and not only gaining tempo. It's useful to save your creatures or bounce Snaps too, ofc.
With all this in mind, here's what I drafted. Looks pretty solid!:
4 Grim Flayer
4 Architects of Will
3 Snapcaster Mage
1 Erayo, Sorarami Ascendant
4 Serum Visions
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Traverse the Ulvenwald
4 Mishra's Bauble
3 Whispers of Emrakul
3 Vapor Snag
2 Nameless Inversion
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Watery Grave
2 Breeding Pool
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Hinterland Harbor
1 Island
1 Swamp
1 Forest
1 Ghost Quarter
To be honest, the discussion here about Izzet's evaluations made me realize one thing.. in science (and other disciplines) we use something called P, which is basically the "chance that a finding is the product of luck". A P < 0.05 is usually the threshold of what's comsidered acceptable, which P < 0.01 even better, and so on (the lower the better).
So, taking into account that in Modern the ceiling is brutally high and only around 3 or 4 cards from each set are deemed playable after a few months, if you say that absolutely eveything is unplayable, you have a really, really high chance of actually being partially right, if for example only 2 are playable. The problem is the P would be incredibly high, at it was mainly luck. It similar to homeopathy, it may work by chance in some occassions, but it's a complete fraud otherwise scientifically and technically
Izzet's misses with things like Treasure Cruise, Dig, Kalitas, or Nahiri makes me think that his P is incredibly high, and thus he basically errs in almost every playable and is "right" with most of the unplayables, since everything is unplayable. So overall i think his evaluations are not much better than coin flipping just based on statistics. Just my 2 cents
On the other hand, I'm extremely optimistic with my evaluations (the sins of a brewer), so here they come
Amazing, potentially archetype-creating cards
Gnarlwood Dryad: perfect for the already good RUG Traverse, this could potentially push it to Tier 1
Bedlam Reveler: amazing card as a 1 oe 2-of, i can see it played in RUG or even some Jund decks.
Grim Flayer: could push BUG delirum to the top
Whispers of Emrakul: together with Flayer
Liliana: i think Liliana is great and it will see play in non-Jund archetypes where it has no business. It costs 3, it has decent loyalty, and good abilities like a better Jace +1
Spell Queller: this card is busted in tempo Spirits and even in normal aggrocontrol decks with flash creatures
Selfless Spirit: with Rattlechains and Queller this deck could be seriously good, you've good instant disruptio, resilient creatures and a whole lot of unpredictability, much like Faeries had.
Maybe playable?
Unsubstantiate: it's flexibility is astounding at it counters Decays and Verdicts, so it may push tempo high up
Mausoleum Wanderer: to be honest this is an almost strictly-better Judge's Familiar, if I don't remember it bad, so it may actually be a thing in tempo spirits.
Imprisoned in the Moon: a clean, simple answer in Blue for planeswalkers and giant dudes is not easy to come by, so it may see some play
Eldrich Evolution: i see potential with Delve cards into things like Iona
Noose Contrictor: is Wild Mongrel good enough after all this years to revive Madness? Who knows
It's not a bad start, but Delver is not good with Bauble (even though you can theoretically set up draws with it, in my experience it's really terrible as it doesn't flip it) and the deck feels a little bit unfocused. For example, why 2 Tarfires? It's possibly the best Delirium enabler in Modern, and although I agree 4 can be a bit too much, 3 is fine. Also Fury Charm is not playable, even though Relic does wreck us. It's better to stock up on Revelries and Grudges post SB against Relics and RIPs
This is what I've been playing (sans the Dryads and Reveler which will definitely be added) for the last 3 months:
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Snapcaster Mage
1 Erayo, Soratami Ascendant
1 Chaos Reveler
4 Serum Visions
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Traverse the Ulvenwald
4 Remand
4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Tarfire
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Steam Vents
2 Breeding Pool
1 Stomping Grounds
1 Sulfur Falls
1 Island
1 Mountain
1 Forest
1 Ghost Quarter
Fetching an Erayo and soft-locking them out whenever they're tapped out it's a really important angle that you should be aware of too, IMO
Remands could become Unsubstantiate, since you can counter Decays, bounce huge dudes and even return your own Reveler to get another 3 cards
I think Eldritch will fundamentally change Modern at a deep level, it's viable strategies, most powerful decks, general metagame... it's just amazing the amount of cards with an immense potential to build other archetypes that EM has.
One of the best times to be a Modern player IMO.
Time to start dusting off my Madness Wild Mongrel skills, although without Circular Logic it will certainly be a very different deck
@Be labor: actually there is, I tested a few months back that 0 mana black madness spell which brings back black creatures from the yard. It wasn't very good really, but it is card advantage if you use it with other Madness enablers (not this one).
I'm orgasming right now with that Chaos Reveler... omggggg!!! Imagine a typical scenario against Jund where you've been trading resources and are top decking, but you obviously have quite a few serum visions, gitaxian probes and Bolts in the yard. Topdeck Traverse the Ulvenwald, pay RR, cast a 3/4 Prowess with an Ancestral Recall attached to it.
I'll repeat, RR: Put a 3/4 token with Prowess, then cast Ancestral Recall
Granted as a 4-of it's too much and it may be clunky on occasions, but as a tutorable target... damn
Also, that spirit seems very legit in a Spirits deck with Rattlechains and Geist, it's a 3 mana counter spell attached to a body which can be protected with other spirits and brings the beats. Put it together with the indestructible spirit guy I could see spirits tempo become a thing
Friendly reminder, text that is huge and red is spam by our rules. ~Lantern
Traverse has nothing to do with Company, I feel like I'm repeating myself and this point
That being said, Flayer looks busted to me. Geez. I guess I'll be moving from RUG to BUG if this trend continues...
Anyways, this deck seems very sweet to me:
4 Grim Flayer
4 Architects of Will
3 Snapcaster Mage
1 Erayo, Sorarami Ascendant
4 Serum Visions
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Traverse the Ulvenwald
4 Mishra's Bauble
3 Whispers of Emrakul
3 Vapor Snag
2 Nameless Inversion
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Watery Grave
2 Breeding Pool
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Hinterland Harbor
1 Island
1 Swamp
1 Forest
1 Ghost Quarter
A dude called Jace who has dominated Standard for months, maybe?
Trust me, Tarfire is one of the best cards in my deck. Keep in mind that I've been playing with my brew for 3 months now, I've done a lot of testing. It is good because of one simple reason, you can turn 1 fetch serum visions, t2 tarfire, kill confidant, get delirum and trav erse for a bomb. It's nuts.
Although I admit, Architects is a great find that I had not thought about. I don't think it will be better than Tarfire, mainly because it does "nothing"; pay 1 mana cycle, but doesn't answer goblin guides, eidolons, confis, hatebear, etc. But I'll test it. thanks.
It's completely possible to consistently get Deli, As I've said a million times with my Modern RUG Traverse deck. Shell is always 4 Mishra's Bauble, 4 Tarfire, 4 Gitaxian Probe, from there you can modify it. It's very easy to get a consistent T2-3 delirum. Now, with this being BG it's more difficult as you cannot play this AND Tarfire AND blue cantrips, but maybe something can be done
I think this zombie is pretty good actually, considering it's a zombified version of Heritage Druid which draws cards. The discard enabling Madness is the icing on the cake.
I do think it needs a new shell, as it doesn't seem better than other options in Dredge, for example
This one protects herself as well as Vryn's Prodigy (which we all know how surprisingly difficult is to kill Jace once transformed), and provides some insane card advantage if you return Snapcasters or Pias. At 3 mana, it's Modern playable.
I don't know if it will be a staple in a new kind of deck, because walkers are difficult to evaluate, but she's promising.
You are missing Pyromancer on you pic, lololol
Solid card, no idea if it will be good or not but seems solid for Ad Nauseam and glass-cannons who autolose to Jund
4 Birds of Paradise
4 Voice of Resurgence
4 Set in Stone
4 Oath of Nissa
4 Oath of Gideon
4 Tamiyo, Field Researcher
2 Garruk, Wildspeaker
The deck has a tokens/dorks subtheme which are meant to instantly kill the opponent with Garruk's Overrun once Oath of Gideon is in play, obviously helping at the same time to ramp to the Planeswalkers. Tamiyo does seem absolutely nuts with all the tokens, and with Oath of Gideon it ultimates as fast as Nahiti, which can also be relevant.
Would have to test to see if it's any good tho
The thing is, I know Traverse is good because I've tried it for 100+ hours... I've been wrong with many cards before, like anyone here, as some look really good on paper and turn out crap. If that happens, I'm just disappointed and move on. I'm not saying Traverse is theoretically good, I'm saying it because I've played with it for 3 months and I know how backbreaking it can be and how much card advantage it can generate.
If you've done Primers, then you above all should know how much testing needs to be done to find you which card are good or not. I think the sir above me me hit the nail in the head (@terrifiktorcoal), as decks like Bloom were slow burners.. if you did the "check top 8" approach with Bloom, you would have said it was terrible, period. You can't deny that.
About Mono-U devotion.. well obviously you can say that it's good now, as it was top tier for all that Standard. Was it in the top 8 website before the pro Tour? Nope. So, it wasn't good then? Why wasn't it good before the Pro Tour and suddenly it was after it? Hmmmmmm
People usually only play what is popular, it's a chain reaction. But hey, Bloom picked up and was eventually even banned.
PM: I've done quite many things, I've created Hooting Mandrils, a bit hilariously had to stop discussing TarmoTwin cause Ofelia send me a message that he was bringing it to the Pro tour (and the Dickmann added Oozes and top8'd!), made Goryo's Kiki along with quite a few more decks (I have hundreds of concepts scribbled, as I said), and have written some half-primers for decks, although they are not here yet published. As I've said, because of my work I don't have that much time, but writing is one of my favorite things in the world, and I'm planning to take time and do some of that. Wish days had 48 h!