Outside of picking the right deck for the right meta, and piloting it correctly, luck factors in quite a bit. High Tide is not the right deck for this meta, but she pilots it well and occasionally will get lucky. So I think his point with the D20 analogy is that by playing enough over time the probability of her getting lucky increases and she'll eventually top 8. Because the deck certainly isn't getting any better and pilot skill can only take you so far.
Considering how dismissive and confrontational you have been with posters who are very experienced with the game I don't think you should go around calling people jerks.
Depending on the deck either Goblin Guide or Grim Lavamancer. Goblin Lakcey is good, but literally only works in one deck and his worth has decreased with the rise of Deathrite Shaman.
Running less than 4 Rift Bolts to shoehorn in Young Pyromancer seems unwise. I think 4 Rift Bolts and 3 Grim Lavamancers makes more sense in terms of getting more damage faster. Pyromancer is too slow.
Well Goblin Guide clearly is fine in the right deck or people wouldn't be winning SCG Opens with him. So you may not personally like him but the fact is it is a very effective card in the right deck and is much, much better than Vexing Devil.
I actually like "choosing" as a mechanic. It's sort of like Instant vs. Sorcery. You can make cards with similar functions but these two types change the power. Same with targeting versus choosing. So I like this much more than a TNN ban. I feel like it opens up more design space.
Are we living in a world where U/R Delver doesn't win SCG Opens? Aside from local tournaments where I have done well with Burn and U/R Delver I'm just at a loss as to why this is a discussion. You can make some kind of argument for why you don't like Goblin Guide, but it works well in this meta as clearly demonstrated by major tournament results. This is a thing: http://tcdecks.net/tipo.php?archetype=UR Burn&format=Legacy
Anyone who plays Burn or U/R Delver knows Goblin Guide is one of, if not the, best turn one plays you can make.
This Merfolk list is incredibly interesting. I've often thought Vial is no longer the force it once was, but what would you replace it with? Apparently the answer is Chalice of the Void.
Mind's Desire was in Scourge, that came out over 10 years ago. Wizards probably did test the other formats then, but we live in the present. They certainly don't test them now and don't put much thought into them other than making random cards meant for the format (some work, much to some people's dismay, like TNN, but others fall flat like Unexpectedly Absent). Wizards isn't even testing the cards they claim are designed for our format, so why do you think they have some unknown knowledge about two cards that are widely agreed to not be very powerful and unlikely to impact the format by players? We've even seen people testing these cards. We have actual data to go on. There is no secret hiding behind Black Vise and certainly not Mind Twist. Mind Twist isn't a good card in this format. Vise is very narrow and unlikely to cause any changes. I don't know what Wizards could possibly know about two very simple cards that we don't.
@ssjevot - I've been playing the game since 1996 and one thing I had noticed about wizards, nothing is by accident. They will say it was an accident but it's not. For example, they claim that urzas was a designing error, and that wasnt so. The set took 2 years to make, and if you look two years before urzas you'll noticed that right around that time was the CCG crash, and right around that time there was old school players threatening to quite the game. The only error they made (which they do not acknowledge) is that Tempest was actually the block that saved the game but the design for urzas was still set in motion because it was aimed to bring the old school gamers back.
I do think they know more about the game then they are willing to admit because the people in wizards are getting paid to play magic and to design cards for the game. Mental Misstep was perfectly designed for the format, but the card forced too much of a change and too many players invested too much money in the game. The mistake on this part was wizards rapidly banning the card. Truth is if the game was intended for 'fun' more then 'gambling' then the ban didnt need to be rapid. But since the game is now 'gambling' (thanks to SCG's) the ban needed to be rapid.
The fact is wizards had noticed that SCG's make magic's legacy into High Stakes Poker. So it's doubtful that wizards will reprint key cards, like Force of Will and Wasteland. And it is likely wizards that will make cards that will shake up the legacy format, such as TNN. I dont think it's a bad thing on their part.
I'm not really sure how to respond to this because you won't take Wizards' own admissions or statements as facts. Like what can I post to refute you if you will claim the facts are wrong? Wizards doesn't actively test Legacy. That's a fact. Wizards makes mistakes. That's a fact. Things occur in many formats that Wizards did not anticipate and did not discover even when actively testing those formats. That is a fact.
You seem to think Wizards is some almighty entity that cannot err when they by their own admission make mistakes all the time and do not have the time to test everything.
The point is that we don't want cards on the banned list unless they ruin format diversity (or abuse the tournament structure). You haven't shown BV will do this, and as long as you ignore my counterpoints you never will. What we are looking for is a open format with a minimal list. What are you looking to the banned list for? Do want to see a more hands-on, meta game engineering approach like in Modern?
What do I need to show, you guys' been asking about unbanning black vise because it's a "safe card" (noticed I put quotes on that - because I dont believe the card is safe.) and time after time... DCI/Wizards had not unbanned the card. Maybe wizards know something that you guys dont.
I dont think 2 dumb cards (Black Vise and Mindtwist) on the ban list will make Legacy like Modern. Actually, I'm starting to believe that those cards will never come off the ban list.
Wizards by their own admission does not test Legacy. So saying they know things we don't is silly. They don't have a dedicated playgroup sitting around seeing if cards are safe. The best evidence we have is from the videos people occasionally post testing these cards, and the evidence is they're completely safe (though I think more testing is always a good thing). The best way Wizards can feasibly test if they're safe is to unban them and see how it impacts the meta and if necessary put them back on in a later list if they warp the meta in an unhealthy way.
I just want to see an unban of Mind Twist and Black Vice in Legacy. Not because I think they're interesting or could increase diversity (they would likely have close to zero impact on the meta), but because they have no business by being banned. They're an archaic remnant of an earlier era much like Land Tax was (which came off the list and then proceeded to reside in obscurity until the end of time).
The worst part about these Christmas Land scenarios, who is even playing Dark Ritual outside of combo decks? Pox? The deck that often doesn't even want to play Hymn anymore? Why would they want Twist when they empty opponents' hands in no time anyway? Targeted discard will always be better in the vast majority of decks.
Why would any deck that currently plays black, but can't run Hymn for some reason want to put Mind Twist in? Why not a better discard spell like Thoughtseize?
Anyone who plays Burn or U/R Delver knows Goblin Guide is one of, if not the, best turn one plays you can make.
If you run more cost reducers like Ballyrush Banneret, then you can get away with Captain of the Watch (which can also be dropped of Preeminent Captain). Overall you can always go the Soldier Stompy route and play a more control deck (http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/legacy-type-1-5/developing-legacy/181882-soldier-stompy?page=6) or you can play up the Aggro/Control and run Swords to Plowshares and at least one Jitte.
I'm not really sure how to respond to this because you won't take Wizards' own admissions or statements as facts. Like what can I post to refute you if you will claim the facts are wrong? Wizards doesn't actively test Legacy. That's a fact. Wizards makes mistakes. That's a fact. Things occur in many formats that Wizards did not anticipate and did not discover even when actively testing those formats. That is a fact.
You seem to think Wizards is some almighty entity that cannot err when they by their own admission make mistakes all the time and do not have the time to test everything.
Wizards by their own admission does not test Legacy. So saying they know things we don't is silly. They don't have a dedicated playgroup sitting around seeing if cards are safe. The best evidence we have is from the videos people occasionally post testing these cards, and the evidence is they're completely safe (though I think more testing is always a good thing). The best way Wizards can feasibly test if they're safe is to unban them and see how it impacts the meta and if necessary put them back on in a later list if they warp the meta in an unhealthy way.