So LotV seems to be at the floor for MTGO. I'm thinking of pulling the trigger. Maybe now before previews really get rolling? 1 or 2 good Jund/Lili type cards could push her up maybe?
if you think there is a decent chance jund could get something to push it up the standings, then yeah it might be a good time to grab a set. that and if you expect to play them at all, which is a less tangible return on investment but still something.
also unless a major reprint comes along, its not like lotv is going to bottom out quickly. so if your spec turns out wrong you can flip them without losing much time or tix. its one of the benefits of mtgo after all.
Last Ravnica block gave us Abrupt Decay and Deathrite Shaman. I'd say there's a good chance, especially if they're serious about printing stronger answer cards.
I'm looking to play them so I just went ahead and pulled the trigger.
They dropped 4 cents sitting in my cart. Sigh....
Make sure they are in your cart and you are purchasing from a reputable dealer. Then just monitor spoiler season. If there aren't any strong cards to push BGx or Mardu in the set, then just keep sitting on the Lilis and they will keep dropping. But if you see some new card that is likely to improve the Modern or Legacy decks that run her, just buy them right on the spot. I've used this method in the past and it's largely successful.
Yeah, I just bought them now so I don't need to do all that. All the good buys I've made have been during periods where I was watching prices daily. It just seemed exhausting this time. I want to play them and it will be another month or two till I have the entire deck. How much can she possibly go down over 2 months vs the risk of going up over the same time?
The main problem that may shoot my prediction in the foot is that word is going around WoTC might be having some distribution issues with the removal of the wizards direct store, so it is entirely possible the floodgates wont be opened until a month past release at the earliest. If that is the case then I'd expect the lands to be above 5 dollars for a while until the restocks hit later. Still, this is a very unique situation. As far as I recall, there hasn't been land printed in a fall or spring standard set twice since the dawn of the print to demand era. I'm very curious to see what happens to something like a shock land when it gets opened to the point that there are physically more copies of it on the open market than Sunpetal Grove.
I agree this seems unique. 3 Standard print runs. That's got to be a LOT of cards. Distribution problems aside, I think it's useful to think about the price a couple weeks after the set drops and then once it rotates out of standard. If Shocks hit $5 with Standard demand 2 weeks in, then where do they settle 2 weeks after rotation?
So LotV seems to be at the floor for MTGO. I'm thinking of pulling the trigger. Maybe now before previews really get rolling? 1 or 2 good Jund/Lili type cards could push her up maybe?
That seems really low. They were what, about $15 last week? Standard demand should prop the price up a bit, after all. I think the immediate result is what you've described. No buylist, and no sitting on copies. But those 2 things couldn't possibly have kept the price propped up by 300%?
I've seen some of the UW Decks running 4 Terminus main?! Yikes! Does Burn go back to being spell heavy in response? Humans seems the best aggro deck ATM to take into a UW heavy meta, no? Thalia, Meddling mage, ect? I guess Storm is just too fast for it? Not enough disruption?
I think the new art is great. Not for all of them but this definitely allows people to sort of pick their favorite. I'm really surprised to see them reprinted. Maybe it bodes well for a Fetch reprint with the aim of keeping the Modern manabases accessible.
In my state a business license is an easy document to obtain. Just incorporating, obtaining an FEIN from the IRS and then filing the requisite paperwork with your state secretary should be relatively accessible with low upfront costs. I imagine this legal framework is what that distributors are looking for. You should be able to go in baby steps as opposed to all in all at once.
I can't sleep and I've thought about work enough for the day so you get to benefit from my sleepless musings. Again, from the perspective of one that stepped away for a bit.
This was always a deck that was disruptive and could establish a quick clock. That clock was the combination of Goyf and the TKS/Smasher. Goyf was cheap, TKS was disruptive and Smasher had some resiliency. Eldrazi Temple enables the TKS & Smasher as a fast clock. As I recall, when I left, we were discussing the correct number of Matter Reshaper and Scavenging Ooze. Since neither card is part of the Clock piece of the deck it is either part of the Disruption part or a supporting element. I favored Scooze because it was a Disruptive element, although the raw power level was lower by virtue of being more situational.
So fast forward to now. You've moved off of Reshaper in favor of Tireless Tracker, which was emerging as a strong card when I left. So presumably you've identified that the CA potential from Tracker is better than the guaranteed CA from Reshaper even after considering Eldrazi Temple may put Reshaper ahead of curve. Graveyard shenanigans seem to still be a thing (surprise) and you're looking for more MD GY interaction. If you're cutting Goyf over Tracker, then you've identified that Tracker is better than Goyf?
I think that's incorrect. If only in that goyf is one of the reasons you play green at all in modern. If you're not playing 4 then I don't think you play any and that at that point you have to ask yourself why play Green. I'd cut a Smasher before I cut a Goyf.
couple week hiatus due to life. small changes to list for testing for FNM.
Main: +1 scooze, -1 goyf.
SB: -1 night of souls betrayal, +1 yahenni's expertise, -1 thrun, +1 obstinate baloth
I checked in on MtG just in time! -1 GOYF?!?!
I haven't played in 2018 at all. How's the scene? I'm thinking about dipping my toe back in. Really pleased to see you've kept up with the deck.
Up another $4 and stock is WAY down.
Assassin's Trophy is a good start!
Yeah, I just bought them now so I don't need to do all that. All the good buys I've made have been during periods where I was watching prices daily. It just seemed exhausting this time. I want to play them and it will be another month or two till I have the entire deck. How much can she possibly go down over 2 months vs the risk of going up over the same time?
I'm not sure that's a reasonable comparison.
I agree this seems unique. 3 Standard print runs. That's got to be a LOT of cards. Distribution problems aside, I think it's useful to think about the price a couple weeks after the set drops and then once it rotates out of standard. If Shocks hit $5 with Standard demand 2 weeks in, then where do they settle 2 weeks after rotation?
They dropped 4 cents sitting in my cart. Sigh....
How have the 4 Discard been working out?
EDIT: Oh hey, you got 2 Byes for the main event! That's sort of cool. Except Standard...
This was always a deck that was disruptive and could establish a quick clock. That clock was the combination of Goyf and the TKS/Smasher. Goyf was cheap, TKS was disruptive and Smasher had some resiliency. Eldrazi Temple enables the TKS & Smasher as a fast clock. As I recall, when I left, we were discussing the correct number of Matter Reshaper and Scavenging Ooze. Since neither card is part of the Clock piece of the deck it is either part of the Disruption part or a supporting element. I favored Scooze because it was a Disruptive element, although the raw power level was lower by virtue of being more situational.
So fast forward to now. You've moved off of Reshaper in favor of Tireless Tracker, which was emerging as a strong card when I left. So presumably you've identified that the CA potential from Tracker is better than the guaranteed CA from Reshaper even after considering Eldrazi Temple may put Reshaper ahead of curve. Graveyard shenanigans seem to still be a thing (surprise) and you're looking for more MD GY interaction. If you're cutting Goyf over Tracker, then you've identified that Tracker is better than Goyf?
I think that's incorrect. If only in that goyf is one of the reasons you play green at all in modern. If you're not playing 4 then I don't think you play any and that at that point you have to ask yourself why play Green. I'd cut a Smasher before I cut a Goyf.
I checked in on MtG just in time! -1 GOYF?!?!
I haven't played in 2018 at all. How's the scene? I'm thinking about dipping my toe back in. Really pleased to see you've kept up with the deck.