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  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 21/01/2019)
    Well like I said. I can only shrug my shoulders at this announcement. I would have liked to see a Preordain and/or a Stoneforge Mystic unban but I can accept it and I can see where WotC is coming from. I think a lot people in here don't when it comes to SFM.

    SFM is at its best in an UW/x shell. That was true in Standard, it's true in Legacy and there is no reason to assume that it wouldn't be so in Modern and that's the problem because results are results. UW/x based decks have performed very well over this year and the big three of them are obviously both Control decks in from of Jeskai and Azorius and then of course Spirits. The thing about them is they are all fair decks and they are actually pretty decent against other fair decks. Would SFM go into any these? Maybe not but it would certainly spawn another UW/x based deck that by its nature would probably be very good against other fair decks.

    You would have Tribal Aggro, Control and the SFM deck which would probably be Midrange so what would be the problem? Well that's not the only way to look at it and color diversity has been shown to be a concern too and with SFM it might become a concern that if you want to play a fair deck UW/x is the only real way to go. I mean Death's Shadow decks and BG/x decks still exist and put up results but they don't have easy games against the UW decks and would rather face something else the entire day. SFM certainly wouldn't make that better.

    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on "What Deck Should I Play" thread
    I must say that I would hardly classify Amulet as a Combo deck to begin with. The old versions with Hive Mind sure. But the ones with Primeval Titan as the main game plan are pretty much Ramp decks just like Tron. All the land interactions just feel combo-y
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on UW Control
    Quote from jayjayhooks »
    Anyone have any thoughts on how the KCI ban will effect us? How the meta might shift and how we might react to it?

    I'm just coming back the last couple of months, so I'm not too familiar with how KCI impacted the meta to begin with. I remember Tron having a larger presence, was it's down tick due to a KCI meta at all?

    The only thing I'm relatively sure of is that now I definitely don't want to be on main deck RIP. One the best matches for it is gone.

    Always hard to make predictions like this but I would say that nothing much changes. KCI was a fringe deck in terms of meta share after all.
    Posted in: Control
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Quote from The Fluff »
    Was looking for cards for testing in my homebrew deck, then found Zacama, Primal Calamity.
    I was wondering why is it a 10 dollar card. Are the people in Standard actually able to hard cast it? Or being used someplace else, in another format?

    In Standard certainly no Tier deck is casting that card. In cases like this it is safe to always assume Commander is the reason.
    A 9 mana Mythic Rare Legendary Dinosaur. That's as hard a Timmy creature as it can get. Perfect for the format.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Post Guilds of Ravnica: Jeskai Control
    Quote from ariscotle »
    Quote from idSurge »
    I would start with the France World Cup list up a few posts.


    I would then look at adding Absorb and maybe even some numbers of Quench, as right now (Arena) there is a flood of very fast red decks and you'll need those points of life.

    Thanks for the advice... seems reasonable to just start with that French list and work from there. Absorb seems nice. Quench in SB for what matchups? We're not running it main are we? Diet Mana Leak

    I haven't thought about updates to my list but I would definitely say that Quench has mainboard potential and the synergy with Teferi, Hero of Dominaria is not be overlooked. Getting to play him and then still being able to snipe stuff like The Eldest Reborn, Conclave Tribunal, Ixalan's Binding, Vraska's Contempt or stuff like Vivien Reid is huge.

    Realistically most losses will be by being overwhelmed in the early game and then never stabilizing so playing around Quench will be tough for the opponent. If they want to delay their good spells for 2 turns they won't have it any easier because by then your card advantage spells, sweepers and hard counters are all active.
    Posted in: Deck Creation (Standard)
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from idSurge »
    Quote from Galerion »

    I don't support any bans currently so there is nothing on that front.

    You legit think the format is fine? I cant. I cant look at KCI's win rate and top 8 conversion rate in comparison to its meta share, and say that its 'fine'.

    Yes, I do.
    I mean let's turn this around. Krark-Clan Ironworks is banned. Now what?

    Then the format is suddenly fine? UW/x, BG/x, Humans, Spirits, Burn, Dredge, Tron, Titan, Scales, GDS, Storm, Hollow One, etc. all aren't going anywhere.
    It's one thing to look at numbers absolutely objectively and say this might be better than others. It could be a problem.
    It's another one when it becomes about personal enjoyment. When I play the game I certainly don't think "man those few KCI decks that I never face are way too good and ruin my fun". That's not how it works.

    If anybody claims that a single deck that doesn't even has a high metashare is the only reason they are not enjoying a format and think it's not fine then they are only fooling themselves. KCI hasn't even shown to be a deck that suppresses certain kind of strategies. Decks like Phoenix on the other hand have definitely shown to annihilate certain kind of strategies. So you can ban KCI and it will do absolutely nothing because the format will be just as it is now just without KCI.
    What an outstanding job! Well done. You have done something absolutely inconsequential instead of powering up other things via unbans.

    If that line of action makes someone personally happy then whatever. I would only shake my head and shrug my shoulders in the face of it.

    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from DeFish »
    After the frenzy that the Modern community in general has whipped itself into for this B&R, 'no changes' would be a hilarious outcome. Bonus points for no changes across the board with no further explanations for any format.

    I wouldn't be mad about it.
    Sure it would be time to finally unleash Stoneforge Mystic after her partner-in-crime Jace, The Mind Sculptor was already released but that's also pretty much it. I mean I also would be for unbanning Preordain but I guess with Phoenix being the new hot thing I guess we can forget about that. Thanks Arclight Phoenix Mad

    I don't support any bans currently so there is nothing on that front.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)

    Some interesting things in there but it shows that nobody should take this as the absolute gospel. The data is incomplete and so should be paired with something else to draw conclusions from it.

    For example in this it shows that Spirits has done absolutely terrible against KCI but in ktkenshinxs analysis Spirits does actually pretty decent against KCI. So it's easy to draw wrong conclusions just based on this. If I take this and compare it with ktkenshinxs data though a few things can become clear though.

    Spirits indeed doesn't do well against Phoenix. As a matter of fact Phoenix does decent against all decks that rely on heavy board presence to win the game. Bolts for days and Thing in the Ice make sure of that. Against decks that don't do that things are looking not as hot though.

    GDS is interesting because in ktkenshinxs data it's not well represented and by the data that is there it looks not so good. Hard to draw conclusions here based on that. Pairing this with my personal opinion though I would at least say that GDS doesn't have a favorable matchup against Phoenix. I think that the matchup is even and very skill dependent. In the last SCG Open Top 8 both GDS players quickly lost 0-2 against their Phoenix opponents.
    Misevaluating how much life you can safely pay can be punished quickly and harshly by the Phoenix deck and there is also the fact that GDS is ill-equipped to handle all the angles of attack. Destroy removal is notoriously bad against a flying creature with haste that returns from the graveyard and the premier spell of choice for that is Fatal Push which in turn needs Revolt to even be able to hit a Phoenix. Something that will not the case every single time. Stubborn Denial also isn't at its best in the matchup because both Arclight Phoenix and Thing in the Ice don't actually care if a spell resolves or not. They only care about casting them so if they have a mixture of their 1 mana cantrips and bolts it's trivial to bring back Phoenixes or transform a Thing and Denial won't change that. Speaking of Thing I wouldn't say it's at its best in the GDS matchup but the text is still relevant. Gurmag Angler getting bounced is very bad news and 7 power also means you might not be able to even afford a single hit from it.

    I know Phoenix players like Ross Merriam actually say to not bring in graveyard hate against them and I think that's right for decks like UW/x or GB/x which already have maindeck answers to stop getting grinded out by Phoenixes. In GDS you probably really want those Leyline of the Void or Surgical Extractions though to stop that angle of attack. But Phoenix players are also wising up and bring in their own Extractions to counter opposing ones. Something to keep in mind probably.

    Quote from tronix »

    mostly agree with your other claims. though i think UW control is in the same space as GDS for fair decks. i remember touching on the topic in a response to some generic reddit post, but i believe that UW fails to have a sustained presence despite its 'stats' because the deck runs contrary to what modern is about nowadays. the deck purely reactive and does its best (and succeeds to a good extent) to ignore text boxes, so it gets to that 'alright to pretty good' range against most anything. with modern being about deck counters, proactive decks jousting, and a fast shifting meta though UW isnt offering any edge that top level players might typically seek out. when your goal isnt so much to win matches, but to win tournaments (or place well); the risk reward payoff for choosing a deck that capitalizes on a good read on the top tables and a strong proactive plan that can muscle through games where variance swings your way is just better (imo).

    It's funny you say that because I too think there is some hive mind thinking among certain Modern players. I don't want to paint anyone in a bad light here. Reid Duke for example is a way better and more experienced player than me and in many videos of his there is a theme where he states that being proactive is a trait he values and thinks is better. In the last SCG Open he dropped 5-3 with Abzan. Two of his losses were on camera and both times it was against a UW/x player and he lost them pretty convincingly to be honest. Even the commentators said that.
    I also remember a watching a Youtube video of a GDS players who said at the beginning that he thinks he has a good matchup against UW. He lost the match 0-2 after that.

    Let's make one thing clear. UW Control is an objectively powerful deck. The numbers are there to prove it. Personal opinion doesn't play a role in that. Even the "fair deck killer" Tron doesn't have an auto win against UW because that is not how things work.

    Will the deck ever rule the meta? Probably not unless we get stuff like Sensei's Divining Top, Brainstorm, Ponder to unlock the full potential of the Miracle spells and Counterbalance of course or we get some other new toys to play with. But here is the thing everybody should keep in mind. Control by its very nature doesn't appeal to everyone which means it will always have a lower share than it objectively should have.

    In RTR-Theros Standard Sphinx's Revelation Control was the objectively most powerful deck in the format and yet Mono-Black Devotion was still played in higher numbers despite of that. There are tons of people who just love to smash with creatures and that is OK. That's just how it is and nobody will be able to change that.

    But Control will always be there and it will punish decks and people who don't respect it. Now more then ever in the entire history of Modern. Because Jace, The Mind Sculptor, Teferi, Hero of Dominaria and Azcanta, The Sunken Ruin aren't screwing around. They can put games away quickly and make it nigh unwinnable for the opponent. A trait that Control didn't really have before them in Modern but it is here now and it is there to stay.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on Abzan
    Quote from guitar90x »
    Maybe that hurt his deck

    I honestly don't think so. I think we saw him two times on camera and both times he lost against UW/x Control decks. So the choice of his removal didn't play that much of a role there
    Posted in: Midrange
  • posted a message on "What Deck Should I Play" thread
    Hoping for a quick response!

    I am playing a Modern Cash event today. These are the decks I expect to face - UR Phoenix, Bant Spirits, Burn, and Tron all in that order. These are the decks I have with me - Grishoalbrand, Abzan Company, Abzan Evolution, Elves, and possibly Scales. Which would do the best vs. these? (there will be plenty of other decks, but I have to pick what I'll beat) Other suggestions are welcome too!

    *And yes, I should have thought this out earlier. Yes.

    Oof. I don't think one of your decks is able to beat all of them. Heavy creatures decks that rely on board presence and are not packing much interaction are very likely a dog against Thing in the Ice and a flurry of bolts.
    And Grishoalbrand isn't the most consistent deck if you want to do well in a event.

    I fear you might have to pick your poison there.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Problem of a disapearing thread.
    Quote from user-19229964 »
    Hi! I just reconnected today and my account changed name and the thread i was developping in modern creation just disappeared, what should i do?

    Thanks in advance

    Look here

    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Missing threads
    Basically this


    People who didn't agree with the transfer got their accounts deleted and that obviously included Primers they have written. Looks like a huge oversight and something that have could have been thought of before.
    Posted in: Magic General
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Hmm something interesting I just noticed is that I remember the format in the past being heavenly Overgrown Tomb decks vs Steam Vents decks and things certainly have shifted from that. Looking at all the GP/PT Top 8s of 2018 makes it certainly the year of the Hallowed Fountain but besides that there is a lot of diversity in color pairings.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on Priest of Forgotten Gods
    Quote from leslak »
    Quote from Yatsufusa »
    Quote from Cainsson »
    I wouldn't put my faith in a god that got trounced by Rakdos without him even noticing.

    Why do you think they were forgotten in the first place, otherwise?

    Also, to be fair to Ravnicans, if your interests doesn't lie in line with the any of ten guilds, you basically suffer as a guildless... at that point of refusal to have faith in any of the ten, arguably the Nephilim are the best non-guild entities to have faith in terms of strength.

    It'll be hilarious if they (the Nephilim) were evolved leftover Eldrazi Spawn/Scion after the Titans were done rebooting the plane into the Ravnica though. Ugin did mention that the Eldrazi operate on a very large scale of time cycles, so realistically if (one-in-a-large-statistic) Spawns/Scions could actually survive/evolve without their parent titan, it would be a ridiculously long process that we wouldn't get to see happen on say, Zendikar/Innistrad.

    As sick as we are of the Eldrazi as "antagonists", I think it'll be awesome to see their impact on every natural plane of existence, especially since they're supposed to transcend it. Eldrazi make for way better as backdrop lore than "antagonists" (or more accurately, plot devices moved around by actual antagonists/oldwalkers if Zendikar/Innistrad were any indication).

    Wizards just want to forget the eldrazi. As much as the "community" like and wanted them to be better, be something more. The titans got burned to death and imprisioned into the silver moon (that is not a bad ending comparated to become a dish for new walker and elves). Lets just hope wotc kills half the gatewatch and makes non planeswalker related stories (having non planeswalkers as the protagonists).

    This Walker era of magic is boring as hell. It started nice: Shards of Alara until Theros-Khans was good storyline material, almost all stories focused on a planeswalker but the plane and some minor non walkers protagonists were a norm. Now everything is gatewatch this, gatewatch that ... (Shadows over Inistrad was the only block story that was not boring as hell, well writhen although Emrakul is behind all was a bit obvious Smile )

    Wasn't actually Nahiri behind everything? Turning Avacyn against the people and Sorin and summoning Emrakul to the plane?
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from ktkenshinx »
    Soft-publishing this here for feedback and edits:

    It's a 2018 summary of all the compiled GP/SCG data we have about matchups and MWP. I'll publish to Reddit on Monday after incorporating feedback. I request that people keep this under wraps until it's finalized. Please note the limitations section and don't just parrot about how N isn't 10,000. Nothing drives me crazier.

    Here are the summarized MWPs for top decks with N>300 from the past year with sample size and 95% confidence interval for the MWP:

    KCI: 56.9% (N= 693, 53.2%-60.5%)
    Dredge: 55.1% (N= 314, 49.6%-60.6%)
    HS Affinity: 55% (N= 460, 50.5%-59.5%)
    Bant Spirits: 53.9% (N= 323, 48.4%-59.3%)
    Counters Company: 53.7% (N= 419, 48.9%-58.5%)
    Humans: 51.8% (N= 1520, 49.3%-54.3%)
    UW Control: 51.6% (N= 888, 48.3%-54.9%)
    Gx Tron: 51.5% (N= 1026, 48.4%-54.5%)
    Hollow One: 50.8% (N= 494, 46.4%-55.2%)
    Storm: 50.1% (N= 425, 45.4%-54.9%)
    Grixis Death’s Shadow: 50.1% (N= 485, 45.7%-54.6%)
    Infect: 49.6% (N= 510, 45.3%-53.9%)
    Burn: 49.6% (N= 1136, 46.7%-52.5%)
    Jeskai Control: 48.4% (N= 833, 45%-51.8%)
    Titanshift: 47% (N= 483, 42.5%-51.4%)
    Jund: 46.3% (N= 734, 42.7%-49.9%)
    Mardu Pyromancer: 46% (N= 678, 42.3%-49.8%)
    Affinity: 44% (N= 609, 40.1%-47.9%)

    I'm not going to try and translate the matchup win% matrix here because there's too much going on there. Check out the post for details about those matchups.

    Looking forward to feedback!

    As always you never disappoint.

    Something interesting things in the matchup section that surprised me or reaffirmed my feelings.
    For example Jeskai having that poor of a Burn matchup in this data set surprised me. I mean that's one of the few matchups where Lightning Helix can truly shine.

    UW pulling way ahead of Jeskai on the other hand isn't surprising. I already said it before but the sacrifices you make in Jeskai are questionable IMO. The difference in the Tron matchup being the best example of it and it's not like UW actually has trouble with heavy creature decks as this shows. I mean Terminus is there for a reason. Spirits is an exception but then Jeskai is still only dead even against it in this data set so yeah whatever.

    Funnily enough this even shows why the last GP Top 8 probably turned out the way it did. Spirits does pretty good against KCI but it in turn gets picked apart by the Phoenix decks and indeed there was no Spirits in the Top 16 while 4 Phoenix decks were so KCI got one of it's bad matchups cleaned away all the way to the top. How convenient.

    What's the takeaway of that? Blame Arclight Phoenix for everything bad :p
    Posted in: Modern Archives
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