This is generally true right after rotation, especially when there is a large change in mana base. Aggro match ups tend to be a little swingy in general, and those make up a lot of the meta right now. This is especially true when even the aggro deck isn't nailed down yet (usually the list is mostly determined at release, this rotation there is still some difference between aggro lists). Other people are testing really greedy mana bases or splashy cards that look good, but will late be dropped from lists due to their inconsistency.
It has been bad recently because it's 1GG mana cost isn't good in this format (as mentioned above, the first source is easy, a second early source is MUCH harder), and because the format allows for so much splashing that Den Protector isn't as good anymore either. Ramp doesn't want them, and the various 4 color decks can play better sources of CA than Protector. Also, there is a lot of incidental graveyard hate in the format.
With rotation bringing a largely two-color based format, it's possible that Raptor will have a deck that can reliable cast it early. With Anafenza gone, there should also be a bit less hate in the format. What it really comes down to what the late game is for other decks in the format. If Raptor provides a stronger late game than some (even if not all) other decks, without being a dead card early, it could be good. If almost every deck is either all-in aggro, packs maindeck graveyard hate, or has an unbeatable late game (Ulamog or Rally), Raptor is bad. If there are a lot of other midrange decks, then a midrange deck can get a strong late game advantage by running Protector/Raptor.
GW or RG midrange would probably be the best options for Raptor. I know plenty of people are testing RG midrange (most likely due to Arlin Kord hype), I wonder if anyone has found Raptor to be okay there.
The fact that this gets two creatures means it might actually see play. Usually these reanimator cards are pretty bad in Constructed (Unburial Rites is the exception, not the rule). Would be much better if it could target any graveyard. Might still see some play, but only getting your graveyard limits it to creature-heavy midrange decks. I don't see it as belonging in a reanimator deck as much as a value card in a BG/BGx deck where bringing back a pair of 3-5 drops is great even if there are no huge targets for it.
Fixed PrimeTime got harder than it probably had to be, but should still be reasonable in some EDH decks. Grabbing two on ETB or getting one with each attack might have been too good, especially with how many utility lands there are in standard right now. Keep in mind that Primeval Titan was considered by many to be one of the weakest in the cycle, saw standard (in a MUCH stronger standard format) and sometimes Modern play, and got banned in EDH. This effect is easy to underestimate.
From Under the Floorboards seems really good. Doesn't work as much like Revelation as it may look, because casting one doesn't help you find the next, but it is really good. In a control mirror, it's not easy to answer, and a late one with madness is quite a fast clock. Against midrange, gives both life and blockers. Not very good against aggro because it only gives a little bit of life and the tokens enter tapped (by t5, you need something that can block immediately), but then again, most finishers aren't. This at least helps lock up the board to prevent a hasty curve topper from finishing you off.
Creeping Dread isn't bad, might be decent in draft if you get enough madness, but never great because of how quickly it will become irrelevant (because you will both be topdecking, all it will do is prevent combat tricks). It costs too much to be any good in Constructed.
Not sure how often you will get much value out of his ability. It will trigger sometimes, but in general if you've dumped your entire hand in 4-5 turns and the opponent didn't have removal, you've probably won anyways, and if they did have removal, good chance it went at this guy. It does give you a good topdeck when you get board wiped but your opponent is low enough you still have a chance to finish him.
What makes him so good though is that he has NO downsides. 3/1 for 1B in a relevant tribe isnt far from playable already. Evrn better, he's a madness card that doesn't have to be cast with madness. Cards like him or Gorger are important for enabling a Madness deck because they give you stuff to discard, but are still good when you don't have a discard outlet.
Castigator will see some sideboard play for sure, whether it gets main deck play will depend on the format. The upside is high- 4 power hasty flyer for 4 that doesn't die to Languish. The downside is also pretty severe if the opponent is aggressive. If the format has a lot of control and slow, grindier midrange but with a single fast aggro deck, Castigator is great. If there is very little control and a ton of different varieties of aggro, Castigator is worse. If RB Madness Vampires is better than straightforward red aggro, Castigator is worse.
This also goes in every Zedruu deck.
Regardless of what you think about its playability, I don't know how you could say this isn't an interesting card.
I knew as soon as I saw the devil that it was going to get misevaluated: not only is it a punisher card, it also has self mill.
Things to remember: assuming your deck is actually random (which it should be, and you probably aren't running scry in the same decks that want this guy), MILLING FROM THE TOP IS IDENTICAL TO MILLING FROM THE BOTTOM OF YOUR LIBRARY. Yes, there might sometimes be "feel bad" moments where you are forced to mill something you were looking for, but these are canceled out by the fact that every time you don't mill that card, you are digging closer to it (this is fairly simple probability, but the actual math has been done plenty of times).
Self-mill can only be a downside in three circumstances:
1) Your opponent has a card that cares about your graveyard. I can't think of anything in standard this applies to, and the only Modern application is if they have Tarmogoyfs and you don't. Most current graveyard cards only really care about your graveyard.
2) You are running a card that allows you to search your deck along with singletons to search for. Again, nothing comes to mind in current standard (though this happens enough that it could occur sometime in the next two years). While there are several playable Modern cards with this effect, it is quite unlikely to show up in the type of all-in aggro decks that Sin Prodder would fit in.
3) There is a chance that the game will be ended by you being completely milled out. The chances of this happening are virtually zero unless the opponent is playing a dedicated mill deck. While Sphinx's Tutelage is an example of mill being good fairly recently, unless the format changes this shouldn't be a concern (especially in an aggro deck), and even if it is, Prodder's trigger is MUCH more likely to help you win the aggro vs mill race than lose it.
On the other hand, self mill can often be a good thing. In this set, delirium is the best example, but there could easily be other cards that care as well. The important thing here is that Prodder's trigger will NEVER be a downside. There is NO case in which having the trigger would be worse than not having it. The absolute WORST case scenario is that you mill a land, which (aside from helping trigger delirium, which may be helpful) has zero effect.
Punisher cards are strictly worse than either of their modes, but a card with a punisher effect is still strictly better than the card without that effect. The closer the two modes are, the less of a downside giving the opponent the choice is. In this case, Prodder is strictly better than a 2R 3/2 menace. That's not a bad baseline, pretty close to playable depending on the removal and small board wipes in the format. In an aggro deck, the two modes are quite similar (take damage or give me a card that will be used to do damage), and a non-punisher card with either mode would be insane. Prodder is a very good card, with a decent baseline and an ability that has no downside but tons of potential upside.
However, as good as Prodder is in a vacuum, it's still possible it won't see much play. RB Madness Vampires (or even Werewolves, though thqt seems less likely) could end up being the best red aggro deck, and not play Prodder because it isn't in the tribe. Or the format could end up being hostile to x/2s that cost more than 2 cmc (perhaps due to a pyroclasm effect, the existence of a bunch of 2-power first strikers, or because Shock is getting a lot of play). Even if it doesn't see tons of immediate play, Prodder is too good to not get played for at least part of its time in standard.
Tireless Tracker seems potentially playable in a green midrange deck even without human or investigate synergy. The body isn't great, but it only takes one clue sacrifice to get him to be on-curve, and later it can get much bigger. Offering protection against flooding, a mana sink, and the ability to grow to be a significant threat in the late game, he has upside, but might just be too slow to do anything. With human synergy or more investigate cards, he could get much better. Without any more help, he is worth considering, but far from a certainty.
Cool flavor. As mentioned above though, misses the two things that made Geist so good (hexproof and fast clock on an empty board).
Still a pretty strong aura, especially if you have stuff that cares about the token entering. Dropping this turn three on a 2-drop to attack immediately is a pretty aggressive play. This also allows a skulk creature to do attack for a lot while staying small enough to be hard to block
New Jace is unexciting, but but I still expect to see a copy or two in many control lists.
Olivia is really strong, pitching an extra land to give your 4 drop haste is amazing, and between Incorrigible Youths, Falkenrath Gorger, and Fiery Temper, it should be fairly common for her discard to be a madness card. Between Olivia, Heir of Falkenrath/heir of the night, Ravenous Bloodseeker, and Wolf of Devils Breach, there are enough discard enablers to allow you to run plenty of madness cards.
I will be quite suprised if there isn't a strong RB aggro deck with a madness theme or subtheme, which will likely be happy to use Olivia.
Pretty sure there will still be a legendary werewolf. Wotc is very aware that was the biggest thing missing from the first Innistrad, and that with a second block worth of werewolves there will be a lot of people who want to make a werewolf EDH.
On the card:
VERY reminiscent of Huntmaster/Ravager of the fells, which isn't a bad thing. She doesn't do anything particularly special for RG, but is still interesting because she's a 5 ability DFC walker.
Her human +1 is really easy to undervalue. Giving haste and a pump is quite strong, though not as useful the turn she comes down. Turning a late topdecked 1 or 2 drop into a relevant hasty threat is pretty good.
I think her most common use will be to ETB, make a wolf and flip, then bolt and flip next turn. From there she can either give your midrange creatures haste or repeat the flip.
Her wolf side + needs you to be playing a little more of an aggro deck, but also works if you have her in a superfriends deck. Make a token then pump your army could be usable with Nissan and Gideon. Still, wolf form + is probably her weakest ability.
Overall:
Positives:
-Has protection
-Provides removal
-Can produce a decent amount of damage per turn (a lot of damage if you're casting more creatures)
Weaknesses:
-low loyalty
-can't use a strong - on ETB when you know she won't survive another turn
-very little immediate impact in an aggro deck
People discussing her for Modern, I'm not sure she's good enough there.
In standard however, she is decent in the aggro match up, with the ability to kill a creature then either absorb some damage or kill another creature. That's about as good as a 4 cmc card that isn't a boardwipe can be.
In a midrange matchup, it's rare for the opponent to be able to hit her for 6 next turn without having a good target for her -2, and if she can survive a few turns she is giving you tons of value as well as affecting the board.
In the control matchup, she can just +2 for value until she's ready to ult. This gives you CA and and the easy-to-reach ultimate means she can't just be ignored.
I think the important thing to remember with her isn't just how good she is or isnt, but how she could fit into the current standard
he is good enough in a vacuum to be played in standard. However, she is RW, a color pair which may or may not have a midrange/control deck able to use her. RW tends to be pretty aggressive when not paired with another color, and the loss of fetchlands means we could easily be in for a mostly 2-color format. She also shares a color with another very strong 4cmc planeswalker (Gideon), who is more aggressive and fits better into what is expected from a RW deck. In a three color deck, which might be more accommodating for her more controlling abilities, her colors may be a little easier than Gideon's, but she will also have other planeswalkers to compete with (I would probably rather have Arlin in Naya, for example).
TL,DR: She is good in a vacuum, but I think it's a lot less likely that there is a good deck that wants her.
Seems almost playable, but not quite there.
ETB draw a card is good, and it can be a decently sized body. However the human side will almost never be above the curve, and while the transformed side is strong (very large, trample, vigilance, and guaranteed card advantage), it just won't usually make enough of an immediate impact on the board. It's also a pretty bad late-game topdeck, which is not something that can be said about pretty much any playable 5-drop.
Might be fun in some werewolf tribal, but beyond that I don't see this doing much in Constructed. Limited bomb of course (though what high cms rare isn't?)
She seems pretty strong in atandard. Loot effect isn't great, but because it's a +2 she is quite difficult to kill, and any attack that doesn't take her out allows her to retaliate. Her ultimate isn't amazing (in current standard) compared to many other ultimates, but the fact that it is pretty quick to reach means that an opponent can't ignore her. An opponent has to at least damage her in the first two turns she is out to avoid the ult, and if they do that by attacking, it enables her -2. Her -2 ability is also helpful in that it gives you a maindeck answer to enchantments (there aren't any relevant artifact targets right now, but that could change). She fits best in a midrange deck, where she is excellent against other midrange, a relevant threat and card advantage against control, and not terrible against aggro (4 mana removal is weak, but can hit twice or gain some life).
It does require a RW midrange deck to exist, which isn't unlikely, but isn't a guarantee. It also needs that deck to be willing to play at least one copy of a 6-7 cmc creature (which would most likely compete with Chandra for a slot).
In Modern, the ultimate wins the game (if you are willing to add an Emrakul to your deck), but the +2 ability is terrible for a modern 4-drop. The -2 is MUCH worse than Ajani's against aggro, and can't target
With rotation bringing a largely two-color based format, it's possible that Raptor will have a deck that can reliable cast it early. With Anafenza gone, there should also be a bit less hate in the format. What it really comes down to what the late game is for other decks in the format. If Raptor provides a stronger late game than some (even if not all) other decks, without being a dead card early, it could be good. If almost every deck is either all-in aggro, packs maindeck graveyard hate, or has an unbeatable late game (Ulamog or Rally), Raptor is bad. If there are a lot of other midrange decks, then a midrange deck can get a strong late game advantage by running Protector/Raptor.
GW or RG midrange would probably be the best options for Raptor. I know plenty of people are testing RG midrange (most likely due to Arlin Kord hype), I wonder if anyone has found Raptor to be okay there.
From Under the Floorboards seems really good. Doesn't work as much like Revelation as it may look, because casting one doesn't help you find the next, but it is really good. In a control mirror, it's not easy to answer, and a late one with madness is quite a fast clock. Against midrange, gives both life and blockers. Not very good against aggro because it only gives a little bit of life and the tokens enter tapped (by t5, you need something that can block immediately), but then again, most finishers aren't. This at least helps lock up the board to prevent a hasty curve topper from finishing you off.
Creeping Dread isn't bad, might be decent in draft if you get enough madness, but never great because of how quickly it will become irrelevant (because you will both be topdecking, all it will do is prevent combat tricks). It costs too much to be any good in Constructed.
What makes him so good though is that he has NO downsides. 3/1 for 1B in a relevant tribe isnt far from playable already. Evrn better, he's a madness card that doesn't have to be cast with madness. Cards like him or Gorger are important for enabling a Madness deck because they give you stuff to discard, but are still good when you don't have a discard outlet.
Saw someone had quoted me, was hoping they saw what I did there.
Too bad nobody counted the letters and words in either of my posts.
This also goes in every Zedruu deck.
Regardless of what you think about its playability, I don't know how you could say this isn't an interesting card.
Things to remember: assuming your deck is actually random (which it should be, and you probably aren't running scry in the same decks that want this guy), MILLING FROM THE TOP IS IDENTICAL TO MILLING FROM THE BOTTOM OF YOUR LIBRARY. Yes, there might sometimes be "feel bad" moments where you are forced to mill something you were looking for, but these are canceled out by the fact that every time you don't mill that card, you are digging closer to it (this is fairly simple probability, but the actual math has been done plenty of times).
Self-mill can only be a downside in three circumstances:
1) Your opponent has a card that cares about your graveyard. I can't think of anything in standard this applies to, and the only Modern application is if they have Tarmogoyfs and you don't. Most current graveyard cards only really care about your graveyard.
2) You are running a card that allows you to search your deck along with singletons to search for. Again, nothing comes to mind in current standard (though this happens enough that it could occur sometime in the next two years). While there are several playable Modern cards with this effect, it is quite unlikely to show up in the type of all-in aggro decks that Sin Prodder would fit in.
3) There is a chance that the game will be ended by you being completely milled out. The chances of this happening are virtually zero unless the opponent is playing a dedicated mill deck. While Sphinx's Tutelage is an example of mill being good fairly recently, unless the format changes this shouldn't be a concern (especially in an aggro deck), and even if it is, Prodder's trigger is MUCH more likely to help you win the aggro vs mill race than lose it.
On the other hand, self mill can often be a good thing. In this set, delirium is the best example, but there could easily be other cards that care as well. The important thing here is that Prodder's trigger will NEVER be a downside. There is NO case in which having the trigger would be worse than not having it. The absolute WORST case scenario is that you mill a land, which (aside from helping trigger delirium, which may be helpful) has zero effect.
Punisher cards are strictly worse than either of their modes, but a card with a punisher effect is still strictly better than the card without that effect. The closer the two modes are, the less of a downside giving the opponent the choice is. In this case, Prodder is strictly better than a 2R 3/2 menace. That's not a bad baseline, pretty close to playable depending on the removal and small board wipes in the format. In an aggro deck, the two modes are quite similar (take damage or give me a card that will be used to do damage), and a non-punisher card with either mode would be insane. Prodder is a very good card, with a decent baseline and an ability that has no downside but tons of potential upside.
However, as good as Prodder is in a vacuum, it's still possible it won't see much play. RB Madness Vampires (or even Werewolves, though thqt seems less likely) could end up being the best red aggro deck, and not play Prodder because it isn't in the tribe. Or the format could end up being hostile to x/2s that cost more than 2 cmc (perhaps due to a pyroclasm effect, the existence of a bunch of 2-power first strikers, or because Shock is getting a lot of play). Even if it doesn't see tons of immediate play, Prodder is too good to not get played for at least part of its time in standard.
Tireless Tracker seems potentially playable in a green midrange deck even without human or investigate synergy. The body isn't great, but it only takes one clue sacrifice to get him to be on-curve, and later it can get much bigger. Offering protection against flooding, a mana sink, and the ability to grow to be a significant threat in the late game, he has upside, but might just be too slow to do anything. With human synergy or more investigate cards, he could get much better. Without any more help, he is worth considering, but far from a certainty.
Still a pretty strong aura, especially if you have stuff that cares about the token entering. Dropping this turn three on a 2-drop to attack immediately is a pretty aggressive play. This also allows a skulk creature to do attack for a lot while staying small enough to be hard to block
Olivia is really strong, pitching an extra land to give your 4 drop haste is amazing, and between Incorrigible Youths, Falkenrath Gorger, and Fiery Temper, it should be fairly common for her discard to be a madness card. Between Olivia, Heir of Falkenrath/heir of the night, Ravenous Bloodseeker, and Wolf of Devils Breach, there are enough discard enablers to allow you to run plenty of madness cards.
I will be quite suprised if there isn't a strong RB aggro deck with a madness theme or subtheme, which will likely be happy to use Olivia.
On the card:
VERY reminiscent of Huntmaster/Ravager of the fells, which isn't a bad thing. She doesn't do anything particularly special for RG, but is still interesting because she's a 5 ability DFC walker.
Her human +1 is really easy to undervalue. Giving haste and a pump is quite strong, though not as useful the turn she comes down. Turning a late topdecked 1 or 2 drop into a relevant hasty threat is pretty good.
I think her most common use will be to ETB, make a wolf and flip, then bolt and flip next turn. From there she can either give your midrange creatures haste or repeat the flip.
Her wolf side + needs you to be playing a little more of an aggro deck, but also works if you have her in a superfriends deck. Make a token then pump your army could be usable with Nissan and Gideon. Still, wolf form + is probably her weakest ability.
Overall:
Positives:
-Has protection
-Provides removal
-Can produce a decent amount of damage per turn (a lot of damage if you're casting more creatures)
Weaknesses:
-low loyalty
-can't use a strong - on ETB when you know she won't survive another turn
-very little immediate impact in an aggro deck
In standard however, she is decent in the aggro match up, with the ability to kill a creature then either absorb some damage or kill another creature. That's about as good as a 4 cmc card that isn't a boardwipe can be.
In a midrange matchup, it's rare for the opponent to be able to hit her for 6 next turn without having a good target for her -2, and if she can survive a few turns she is giving you tons of value as well as affecting the board.
In the control matchup, she can just +2 for value until she's ready to ult. This gives you CA and and the easy-to-reach ultimate means she can't just be ignored.
I think the important thing to remember with her isn't just how good she is or isnt, but how she could fit into the current standard
he is good enough in a vacuum to be played in standard. However, she is RW, a color pair which may or may not have a midrange/control deck able to use her. RW tends to be pretty aggressive when not paired with another color, and the loss of fetchlands means we could easily be in for a mostly 2-color format. She also shares a color with another very strong 4cmc planeswalker (Gideon), who is more aggressive and fits better into what is expected from a RW deck. In a three color deck, which might be more accommodating for her more controlling abilities, her colors may be a little easier than Gideon's, but she will also have other planeswalkers to compete with (I would probably rather have Arlin in Naya, for example).
TL,DR: She is good in a vacuum, but I think it's a lot less likely that there is a good deck that wants her.
ETB draw a card is good, and it can be a decently sized body. However the human side will almost never be above the curve, and while the transformed side is strong (very large, trample, vigilance, and guaranteed card advantage), it just won't usually make enough of an immediate impact on the board. It's also a pretty bad late-game topdeck, which is not something that can be said about pretty much any playable 5-drop.
Might be fun in some werewolf tribal, but beyond that I don't see this doing much in Constructed. Limited bomb of course (though what high cms rare isn't?)
It does require a RW midrange deck to exist, which isn't unlikely, but isn't a guarantee. It also needs that deck to be willing to play at least one copy of a 6-7 cmc creature (which would most likely compete with Chandra for a slot).
In Modern, the ultimate wins the game (if you are willing to add an Emrakul to your deck), but the +2 ability is terrible for a modern 4-drop. The -2 is MUCH worse than Ajani's against aggro, and can't target